I remember well how it felt to attend the three most pivotal games of P.J. Fleck's tenure as Minnesota's head coach. Two were happy memories: reclaiming Paul Bunyan's Axe in Madison in 2018, holding on to beat Penn State in front of a sellout crowd in 2019. These moments will be cherished as long as there is Gopher football.
The other game was less positive, but I feel it is the most important. For a while before that triumphant, cathartic win over Wisconsin in 2018, the Gophers were struggling. The pieces of the offense that would lead the way to an 11-2 season were in place. Young but super-sized linemen, exciting receivers, and a balding redshirt freshman quarterback were showing signs of life as a unit, even while missing veteran running backs Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks.
The other side of the ball was a wreck. Over a 1-4 stretch to open Big Ten play, Minnesota allowed 40.8 points per game. Opposing ballcarriers routinely tore right into the third level and beyond. What disruptiveness existed was negated by the Gophers' inability to prevent big plays.
The breaking point came on a trip to Champaign. Illinois ran for an obscene 435 yards on 33 carries. Three times, the Illini scored on runs of 72 yards or more. They also threw touchdowns of 67 and 30 yards. While the Gophers made a few dents, it wasn't enough to escape a 55-31 defeat.
After the game, Fleck fired defensive coordinator Robb Smith. In stepped Joe Rossi, a yinzer among a gaggle of Northeasterners joining Minnesota's staff in 2017, first as an analyst, then as defensive line coach, and then as the interim coordinator in Smith's stead.
Rossi immediately settled the defense. The Gophers routed Purdue, dropped a game to Northwestern, and beat Wisconsin while allowing an average of 16.3 points. Rossi became the permanent coordinator in the locker room at Camp Randall Stadium. From there, Minnesota won the Motor City Bowl, fielded a good enough defense to have that brilliant 2019 season, and (after a pandemic-forced setback) fielded one of the nation's best run defenses in 2021. None of that was possible if Fleck hadn't made a necessary change at defensive coordinator before the problem derailed the program entirely.
Fleck enters his sixth season in charge of the Gophers. He's one of seven head coaches hired ahead of the 2017 season to be in the same position without interruption; the other 16 have left for other jobs, been fired, or retired. Most coaches don't last this long, and the buyout structure put in place with his most recent extension means he's unlikely to go anywhere until at least the end of the 2024 season. His Gophers tenure, barring any surprises, counts as a success. The greatest danger to his job security is staleness.
Re-hiring Kirk Ciarrocca as the team's offensive coordinator, replacing Mike Sanford Jr., could provide a needed change. The Minnesota offense added some creative wrinkles under Sanford but became one-dimensional and predictable. Firing him the day after Fleck's second win over Wisconsin signals that the head coach knows the approach needs to change. Bringing back an old friend suggests he's more interested in a refresh than an overhaul. Whether that is enough could be the difference between winning the Big Ten West and finishing in the division's middle.
For Fleck to break through to Indianapolis, his philosophy must evolve. That will keep the Gophers from stagnating as they enter an uncertain, potentially tumultuous time to be at a program of Minnesota's stature. And it will improve the odds that he makes it another five years as coach.
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From this point on, you will find a more straightforward preview of the Gophers' season. For each area of the team — offense, defense, special teams — I've linked the position previews I published earlier this month and included my predicted depth chart. I also ask a sum of 10 big questions facing the 2022 Gophers, divided between the three units. After all of that, I give a team-by-team overview of Minnesota's schedule.
Should you want even more preview material, my podcast partner Aaron and I have been asking and answering a new Gophers question every week since the start of August. Once the season starts, I encourage you to listen to our previews of Minnesota's weekly opponents, and to come back every Wednesday for my Midweek Review series.
I hope this gives you a detailed enough picture of this team entering the 2022 season. It is a lot, so feel free to consume only as much as you need. Thank you for reading.
Offense
Position previews:
Predicted depth chart:
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Ciarrocca returns with the goal of recovering what made Minnesota's offense one of the nation's best in 2019. The gradual slide backwards the offense saw likely had much to do with the work of Sanford, but more than just the identity of the playcaller needs to change for the Gophers to find greater success on this side of the ball in 2022.
Can Tanner Morgan drive a bus?
Minnesota does not need Tanner Morgan to be the best quarterback even in the division. The first thing he needs is consistency: fewer throws into traffic, improved accuracy, picking up open receivers better, not locking onto one target so often. Some schematic tweaks and personnel improvements can make life easier. Ultimately, though, Morgan must raise his floor and do his job.
How will the new line come together?
Morgan's offensive line is a relative unknown entering the season. Four new starters surround center John Michael Schmitz, and there are questions to ask of each of them.
Axel Ruschmeyer and Chuck Filiaga bring experience and seemingly stability, but can they bring anything greater than that? There's significant hype around Aireontae Ersery, but how much time does he need to justify it? Who comes out of the right tackle competition? If it's Quinn Carroll, can we write off his uninspiring college appearances due to a small sample size? If it's Martes Lewis, will he be ready to start without having played in a college game? If it's J.J. Guedet, will his offseason injury hold him back? And of the entire unit: Can the line weather obvious pass situations more comfortably than Minnesota lines of the past?
I believe it's more likely that the offensive line is respectable than it is a wreck. I'm not certain of that, however. Filling each tackle spot with a player who hasn't been a full-time starter before can be a dicey proposition. How well everyone sticks will play a huge role in deciding what the Gophers' offense is capable of achieving.
Can one of Morgan's pass-catchers take another step forward?
We've seen enough of Minnesota's receivers to believe they can do the job in the Big Ten. They all have real strengths and make up a solid group. But to make the passing game a true weapon like it was three years ago, at least one of them needs to find a new level. If given a full year as the No. 1, will Chris Autman-Bell say farewell to the U of M with an all-conference year? Will Daniel Jackson or Dylan Wright make good on their blue-chip pedigrees? Did impressive seasons from Michael Brown-Stephens or Brevyn Spann-Ford in 2021 foreshadow something greater in 2022?
It's not unreasonable to think any one of these five players can be more than what they've shown so far. It's also not a guarantee that any one of them will. Should someone do it, Morgan's job will be easier, and Minnesota can take a big leap forward on offense.
What can Minnesota expect out of Mohamed Ibrahim and Trey Potts now that they're healthy again?
This is a question of smaller importance compared to anything else in this section. Running back is not the most important area of the team, and barring another injury crisis, the Gophers have ample depth at the position. It's still worth wondering: Will their top two tailbacks perform at the level we saw before they were sidelined last year? Or have either of them lost something, even a fraction of a step? Mohamed Ibrahim was one of the elite running backs in the sport before his injury. Trey Potts looked like he could be one of the best in the Big Ten once Ibrahim went down. While effectively running the ball starts up front, the Gophers' ground game will pose a greater threat if it turns out Ibrahim and Potts' "old" selves never went away.
Has P.J. Fleck learned anything?
Three of the Gophers' four losses last year were avoidable. The execution should have been far better against inferior teams like Bowling Green and Illinois, and not making a few inopportune slip-ups could have won the Iowa game. But all three games were plagued by bad offensive coaching, the kind of mismanagement that's held the Gophers back for too long.
When Minnesota is in the early stages of a game against a worse team, and is even perhaps trailing, the offense should not be running at the same tempo it would take if up by a couple scores in the fourth quarter. More possessions benefit the better team. Plus, taking the play clock down to 1 or 2 seconds every time gives the opposing pass rush a great opportunity to time the snap.
If the Gophers run nearly two-thirds of the time again, and remain even more likely to run with extra offensive linemen on the field, the opposing defense will counter with a loaded box. They may have the size and talent to pick up a few yards in those situations. But they may not actually pick up the yardage needed to stay on schedule, and Minnesota will essentially forgo the chance to create explosive plays, negating the good work of the offensive line. An offense cannot thrive if so dependent on the ground game.
And if Fleck remains addicted to running than any other non-service academy in FBS, he should go for it on 4th-and-short like he trusts his line to get a couple yards. Fleck, like basically every coach, should go for it more on 4th down anyway, but conservatism becomes a much more egregious sin when the offense is run like it's playing for 3rd- or 4th-and-short every set of downs.
All that is before we even get to timeout management, max-protection goal line fades, and turtling late in games. There's a lot that needs fixing, and it's all hurt the Gophers before. That goes back to Ciarrocca's first stint as coordinator, too, suggesting Fleck himself needs to change. If the head coach keeps mismanaging games, he'll keep holding his team back.
Defense
Position previews:
Predicted depth chart:
(As covered in the defensive line post, designations of starters at tackle do not mean much. A lot of players will see meaningful action at those two spots, and most will go back and forth between roles.)
Rossi has done so good a job as Minnesota's defensive coordinator that this could be his last season in Minneapolis before he takes a head coaching job somewhere. If this is his last season, his defense could make a great final impression. Rossi has depth in the front six and a proven safety pairing. But there are real questions to ask about the ceiling of that front six, and about what the other secondary positions.
Will a rebuilt interior have the depth and talent to stifle the run again?
The turnaround Minnesota made on defense last year was incredible. With a proper offseason and preseason, the Gophers went from catastrophic to dominant. While the pass defense made gains, the biggest leap was against the run. The transfers of Nyles Pinckney and Jack Gibbens, plus dramatic improvement from Mariano Sori-Marin and Tyler Nubin, made a huge difference.
Some important players need replacing going into 2022. Through recruiting, transfers, and extra years of eligibility from the pandemic, the Gophers have assembled plenty of options to get that done. They'll go through an enormous rotation of linemen and probably a few different linebacker combinations, which should produce some successes. However, there's uncertainty about a number of those players, whether because of youth, recovery from injury, or their promotion to a more prominent job in the defense. To repeat feats like the win over Wisconsin last year, the front six (or seven) will have to re-establish itself as a top-notch run defense.
Can Minnesota's cornerbacks bring consistency?
The Gophers have two verteran safeties and will probably be in a good place at nickel. The real area of concern is the outside. Justin Walley looks capable of becoming one of the best cornerbacks in the Big Ten, but first, he has to cut down on his occasional slip-ups. Terell Smith is a physical defender who will support the run defense on the outside, but he needs to show he can handle opposing receivers in coverage. Even in this league, that's the first job of the position. If Walley and Smith can be a reliable pairing, with help from Beanie Bishop, the Gophers will be in a good spot.
How will Thomas Rush follow up on his successful 2021?
While Boye Mafe was never an elite college pass rusher, he was still in the Big Ten's top tier. He led the Gophers in sacks and havoc plays each of his two years as the team's starting rush end.
Last year, Thomas Rush gave reason to believe he can bridge the gap between Mafe and the young rush ends coming up behind him on the depth chart. The former linebacker defended the run at least as well as Mafe and was better dropping into coverage, but being the starter at a position with "rush" in the name means Rush has a greater obligation to disrupt the passing game. If he can build upon his 5.5-sack season, Minnesota will have an every-down player on the edge.
Special Teams
Predicted depth chart:
Minnesota's special teams unit is significantly sounder than it has been in prior years under coordinator Rob Wenger. We can still ask a couple of questions of this group.
Will the Gophers find a threatening (and mistake-free) return game?
Fleck's Gophers have not always had a strong return game, in part because they haven't always had any return game.
In 2021, nationwide, about half of all caught punts were fair caught. Since Fleck became head coach, the Gophers have fair caught nearly two thirds (100 of 152) of the punts they have caught. (Via Pro Football Focus.) That strategy has potentially left a significant chunk of field position on the table.
It's also probably been a reaction to the fact the Gophers have problems even catching the ball. The national rate of muffed punts was 4.5 percent last season; over the last five years, Minnesota's muff rate has been 7.2 percent. It doesn't always look like a slapstick routine, but it's a recurring problem.
It's no wonder, then, that Fleck recently identified catching the ball as the first trait a punt returner must have. We don't yet know who will return kicks, other than Quentin Redding, but whoever does must be able to do the easy part.
Once that's taken care of, they can go about the hard part: Giving the Gophers a field position boost through special teams — if not a couple free scores. Touchdowns, being such rare events, are not the best basis for evaluating a return unit, but it sure feels relevant that the Gophers haven't returned a kickoff or punt for a touchdown since 2018. Minnesota could be in a lot of close games this season. Whatever boost they can get will be valuable.
Can Matthew Trickett or Dragan Kesich connect on deeper field goals?
Matthew Trickett needs to clean up some of his short- to intermediate-distance kicks, but his track record suggests that will work itself out if given enough time. The bigger question, especially if Fleck doesn't adopt a more aggressive approach on 4th down, is whether Minnesota has a kicker who can be trusted from 45 yards or longer.
Trickett's range, even at Kent State, cut off around this point. Dragan Kesich, the team's kickoff specialist, has a stronger leg, but his blocked kick at Iowa reflected the low trajectory he'd shown on field goal attempts in warmups last year.
There will be a point this season where Fleck decides to kick between the opponents' 30- and 40-yard lines. Whether it's Trickett or Kesich, one of them has to be capable of doing the job.
Schedule
A year ago, FPI's projected record for the Gophers was 6.1-5.9. Minnesota's defense needed to prove that 2020 was a fluke, and now that it has, projections are a bit kinder to the Gophers entering 2022.
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For the sake of all who are interested in discussing Minnesota football, the first three games on the schedule need to go smoothly. Otherwise, the narratives could instantly become out of control.
First off, this Thursday, is New Mexico State. We've already had the weird story of a local organization scheduling and quickly cancelling a speaking engagement with Jerry Kill the morning of the game. Then, Kill couldn't bother to give a straight answer about if he'd shake Fleck's hand postgame. It's already obnoxious. If the game itself is anything less than a breeze, the discourse over Kill and Fleck (really, more Kill) could become insufferable.
This should be a game that Minnesota wins easily. As bad as Bowling Green was last year, the Aggies will be worse. Following a miraculous Arizona Bowl run in 2017, NMSU has spiraled back to their usual place at the bottom of FBS. Martin went 4-20 over his last two full seasons. By SP+, only UConn and UMass were worse in 2021. This program is in despair more than disrepair, navigating without much success the existence of an independent without any national brand. Landing in a patchwork Conference-USA next year hardly counts as finding a life raft.
New Mexico Military Institute transfer Diego Pavia started as the Aggies' quarterback last week against Nevada. The former NJCAA national champion posted a 21-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year, but in his FBS debut, he completed fewer than half his attempts and threw three picks. True freshman Gavin Frakes relieved Pavia and was more stable but couldn't lead the Aggies to a comeback. Frakes also threw an interception.
Whoever starts on Thursday will have problems staying clean behind what was a poor offensive line last year. Pro Football Focus' two highest-graded NMSU linemen, left tackle Sage Doxtater and center Eli Johnson, each graduated. After losing some depth as well, the Aggies will have to shuffle their line. Southern Utah trasnfer Canaan Yarro could prove to be a decent pickup, but he can't save a whole unit. A potentially large group of running backs — headlined by former 4-star TCU signee Ahmonte Watkins — will struggle for space.
The other side of the ball should not fare any better. Based on reporting from Las Cruces, the Aggies' rotation of defensive tackles may average 280 pounds or smaller. The Gophers' offensive line could run right over them. Linebackers Chris Ojoh and Trevor Brohard are also undersized but were at least productive a season ago: Ojoh made 21.0 havoc plays by himself, and Brohard contributed a respectable 10.0 of his own.
The NMSU secondary is also a problem. Syrus Dumas defensed 11 passes at cornerback last year (eight breakups, three interceptions) but, per PFF, allowed 10.3 yards per target. His counterpart, D.J. McCullough, allowed 13.6 yards per target. For context, the average FBS wideout gained 8.1 yards per target. The Aggies gave up a lot of explosive plays, both on the ground and through the air.
The Gophers should be able to pick their score and get through the opener easily.
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There have been seasons this century where Western Illinois was likely better than last year's New Mexico State team. There is no such argument for that going into this season. The Leathernecks always have a difficult schedule in the Missouri Valley Football Conference, the best league in FCS football, but you can't spin Jared Elliott's tenure as head coach: a 9-31 record over four seasons, punctuated by a 2-9 season in 2021.
In to replace Elliott steps Myers Hendrickson, son and former player of ex-Leathernecks head coach Mark Hendrickson. The younger Hendrickson's short run as an NAIA coach was successful, but he is unlikely to hit the ground running in Macomb. The Leathernecks had one of the nation's most porous defenses last season, allowing 6.7 yards per play (123rd out of 128 FCS teams).
There's also uncertainty on offense, as the only quarterback on the roster who has thrown a pass at the Division I level (Henry Ogala) has attempted just five. Western Illinois' four leading wideouts from last year have also departed. There's a lot to sort out, and the team's opener (at UT-Martin, reigning champions of the Ohio Valley) will not provide an easy opportunity to break in the new regulars. If the Leathernecks find their footing this year, it will take time, and it won't be against the Gophers.
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The final opponent in the season-opening "don't screw this up" triumvirate is Colorado, whom Minnesota suffocated last season, and who has since made one Mike Sanford Jr. their playcaller. Additionally, Clay Patterson, a Southwest recruiting specialist and Minnesota's tight ends coach since 2018, followed Sanford to Boulder. There's reason to doubt that either of them will see a second season at CU, since Karl Dorrell's tenure may be running out of time, but for now, the Buffaloes will come to Minneapolis with aims of payback.
They may not be equipped to make it happen. The first thing they have to sort out is the offensive line, a unit that had quarterback Brendon Lewis running for his life last year and now replaces its two best starters. Assuming J.T. Shrout doesn't take the starting job after missing 2021, Lewis and veteran running back Alex Fontenot will need their line to establish a higher standard. The Buffs also need a top receiving option, or at least a complement to tight end Brady Russell, to reveal himself. The whole offense needs a lot of work.
A bad run defense may be able to avoid cratering after the graduation of leading linebacker Nate Landman, having brought in West Virginia transfer Josh Chandler-Samedo. Colorado cycled through a bunch of linebackers next to Landman and may be able to find a reliable pair to start with Chandler-Samedo. PFF liked both edge rushers Guy Thomas and Devin Grant, so there's a chance the Buffs can survive losing Carson Wells, too.
The real question is how Colorado manages to replace three of its four starting defensive backs. Strong safety Isaiah Lewis, the team's leading tackler, is the one holdover; The Buffaloes' youth at cornerback could cost them dearly. If the secondary looks shaky against TCU in Week 1, Minnesota should aggressively attack it in Week 3.
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The Gophers' first road trip of the year, at Michigan State, will serve as their first real challenge. Mel Tucker's Spartans face such plentiful turnover that we don't quite know how they'll follow up last season's 11-2 record, but they've patched up enough holes with transfers that their floor should be decent at worst.
Payton Thorne isn't a transfer but is perhaps the best passer the Gophers will face this season. Thorne ranked 4th in the Big Ten in yards per attempt and 3rd in touchdowns. At a glance, his stats don't separate him from the rest of the league's upper third. But Thorne compiled his numbers while going deep more than any other regular quarterback in the conference last year except Adrian Martinez. Thorne had good weapons but was asked to do more as a passer than players like Aidan O'Connell and Taulia Tagovailoa, who had higher volumes of work but had to make shorter passes and quick, easy reads. While the Big Ten might not be a great conference for quarterbacks, Thorne could rank only behind C.J. Stroud among the league's best. He has to prove that, though, with a successful redshirt junior season.
The most important weapon that Thorne gets back this year is Jaylen Reed. According to Pro Football Focus, nobody else in the conference caught as many passes at least 20 yards downfield. He's a certified deep threat. An even greater share of Jalen Nailor's targets were deep shots, and he paired that with yards after the catch in the short game. Nailor finished second in the Big Ten in yards per catch and is a Minnesota Viking now.
Veteran slot receiver Tre Mosley and some youngsters will be asked to pick up some of Nailor's lost targets, but more intriguing are the options at tight end. Maliq Carr joined the Spartans from Purdue last season but hardly featured, and in a bigger role he could live up to his billing as a 4-star high school prospect. Illinois transfer Daniel Barker was a solid red zone threat at his last school and may serve in that capacity for MSU.
The transfers at running back, Jalen Berger (Wisconsin) and Jarek Broussard (Colorado) both have ability, but their ceiling at Spartans could be limited by the line in front of them. Even when Kenneth Walker III was lighting up opposing defenses, it was far more about Walker than his blocking. Now, that line must replace three starters. If the new starting five doesn't settle in quickly, Michigan State's only way forward will be the passing game.
The Michigan State defense was famously eviscerated by the Ohio State passing attack last November, exposing that unit's weakness on a level unmatched the rest of the year. The secondary isn't in for a total overhaul this fall, however. While Chester Kimbrough will move inside to the slot from corner, the only new face in the lineup will be Georgia transfer Ameer Speed. Continuity may be more vital in the secondary than anywhere else, so sticking with basically the same group will lead to some improvement. This unit will remain a question for a while, though.
MSU faces fewer concerns in run defense, bringing back most of the front six rotation. Replacing top pass rusher Jacob Panasiuk will be the highest priority, so that the secondary gets some help, but the Spartans will have options along the line, including Florida transfer Khris Bogle. Linebacker also could see heavy rotation with the arrivals of Jacoby Windmon from UNLV and Aaron Brule from Mississippi State. There's plenty of experience and depth in the box.
For the Gophers to come out of East Lansing with a win, they'll need to win the aerial game: take advantage of a weak secondary and prevent Thorne from doing too much damage when he has the ball. This will be a major test for Tanner Morgan and for Minnesota's cornerbacks.
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It took some time — and much better luck with injuries — but Purdue finally was a legitimate division contender under Jeff Brohm last year. The Boilermakers posted the program's first nine-win season since 2003 and were a win away from representing the West in the conference title game. It is a daunting task to make up for the departures of a couple of gamechangers in David Bell and George Karlaftis, but this year's team could be good enough to make another run at Indianapolis with some breaks.
The first thing the Boilers have to fix is their offensive line. The only statistic where Purdue's line wasn't a liability was sack rate, which had far more to do with the design of the offense than with their actual ability. Quarterback Aidan O'Connell, per PFF, had the third-lowest time to throw in the nation, and the lowest among Power Five passers. His average depth of target was just 8.6 yards downfield. Purdue's passing game, while highly effective, is based around quick throws that circumvent deficiencies up front.
The Boilers couldn't do anything to avoid those deficiencies in the run game, aside from just not running the ball. Purdue finished last in FBS in non-sack yards per carry (3.6) and in collegefootballdata.com's explosiveness metric. Three of five starters along the line return. The options to fill right guard and right tackle are mostly experienced (including a pair of transfers) but don't come with impressive track records. This group should be better by default, but they need to improve more than they probably will.
Normally, a bad line wouldn't be a tremendous concern for a Brian Brohm offense that tries to work around it, but the Boilermarkers might need a little extra help from their rushing attack this year. Not just because Bell is off to the NFL, but because presumed No. 1 receiver Milton Wright is academically ineligible to play. Tight end Payne Durham — arguably the best in the conference at his position — is therefore the leading returning target for O'Connell.
There is talent at receiver, but the players stepping up have a lot to prove. Can a healthy Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen be the next great Purdue wideout? Can Iowa transfers Tyrone Tracy and Charlie Jones bring a spark now that they're in a functioning offense with a decent quarterback? Was Broc Thompson's Music City bowl performance a sign that he can cause problems for defenses if given a bigger role?
Defensively, Purdue brings back a lot: nine returners with meaningful starting experience, plus depth and pedigree along the defensive line. The unit as a whole was not exceptional but took a major step forward after changing coordinators, becoming downright respectable. The Boilermakers allowed the 35th-lowest success rate in FBS. The one glaring weakness was how many big passing plays they gave up. That needs to get cleaned up, but continuity should help that at least a little.
Of course, it helped having a full year of Karlaftis. The eventual 30th overall pick in this spring's draft was one of college football's best edge defenders in 2021 after playing just two games in 2020. While he didn't have an eye-popping sack total, he could wreck gameplans without getting his hands on a quarterback: His 16.0 havoc plays still led the team.
Having Karlaftis' younger brother, Yanni, won't be the same as having the big man himself. (Yanni Karlaftis, it should be said, was also a 4-star recruit. Still a redshirt freshman, he may only be a marginal player for now.) No one is replicating his output, but they have to find a pass rush somewhere. Kydran Jenkins, Murray State transfer Scotty Humpich, and incumbent end Jack Sullivan have to generate pressure from the edge. It wouldn't hurt, either, if tackle Branson Deen had another good year.
Purdue opens with Penn State this Thursday. With a relatively soft back end of the schedule, how the Boilermakers do this week, and in a pivotal stretch between weeks 5 and 10, should determine whether they finish atop the division for the first time or once again fall somewhere in the middle.
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Bret Bielema should be glad he generated some good will with a respectable debut season at Illinois. It could get a lot worse for a while, and that first impression might have bought him some patience.
Lovie Smith's early youth movement later yielded a veteran offensive line featuring multiple NFL Draft selections, as well as eventual studs like safety Kerby Joseph. Smith's reliance on transfers stabilized a few positions and boosted the roster to a level that allowed them to break through with a bowl appearance in 2019.
But that strategy was going to cost the Illini at some point. The NCAA granting everyone an extra year of eligibility just put off that date by a year. Gone is much of a senior-heavy defense, and gone are all but one of those experienced offensive linemen (Alex Palczewski). The team ranks 103rd in returning production entering the season.
Bringing UTSA's Barry Lunney Jr. on as offensive coordinator was a smart move by Bielema that will take time to show results. Transfer quarterback Tommy Devito will be an improvement over Brandon Peters if his line can keep him clean, and if he has a decent set of pass-catchers. Neither is likely to happen. Pass protection was a weakness of last season's team, and the only standouts at the skill positions are in the backfield: Chase Brown and Josh McCray. If Devito is injured or loses the trust of the coaches (both of which happened at Syracuse, though Dino Babers seemingly handled the latter situation poorly), Artur Sitkowski is his backup. Sitkowski averaged 4.8 yards per attempt last season.
Defensively, the Illini excelled at big-play prevention but didn't throw teams off schedule much at all. Bringing back four of their top six players in havoc plays — including All-Big Ten honorable mention cornerback Devon Witherspoon (17.0) and blitz specialist Tarique Barnes (14.0) — will help matters. But the defense seems set to get worse as it breaks in a number of new starters. How far it falls will determine whether 2022 is a step back or a hard reset for Illinois.
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The last time Minnesota met Penn State, it was somewhat noteworthy. That year, both teams wound up 11-2, runners-up in their respective divisions, and top-10 finishers in the AP Poll.
The next time they meet, it will be a Whiteout in Happy Valley, likely with significantly lower stakes. Penn State was a distant 4th-place in the East last season and probably will not win a division featuring this iteration of Ohio State. Though this could prove a pivotal matchup for the Gophers, games against their division rivals will be of greater importance.
The Nittany Lions have lost five defensive starters entering 2022, plus coordinator Brent Pry. Projections remain high on this side of the ball under Manny Diaz. Penn State fielded one of the top pass defenses in the country a year ago and returns two third-team All-Big Ten defensive backs, safety Ji'Ayir Brown and cornerback Joey Porter Jr. Starting nickelback Daequan Hardy is back as well, and rotational corner Kalen King steps into the lineup after getting significant use his true freshman season. King was pretty boom-or-bust; PPF credited him with just six catches allowed on 20 targets, but those catches led to 152 yards and two touchdowns.
There's more to replace in the box but also plenty of options. The pass rush almost entirely consisted of Arnold Ebikete a year ago, and the Nittany Lions need to find someone who can take up his mantle. Fifth-year player Nick Tarburton brings experience, if not gaudy stats. Maryland transfer Demeioun "Chop" Robinson (a brilliant nickname for an edge rusher, by the way) played every game for the Terrapins a season ago. Adissa Isaac missed all of last year but was James Franklin's 4th-highest-rated signing in 2019. Franklin's top signing of 2022, 5-star Dani Dennis-Sutton, could play a part, too.
The other position of uncertainty is linebacker, where Curtis Jones will be the only regular with meaningful experience actually at linebacker. The other contenders to start are either converting from safety (Jonathan Sutherland) or an underclassman (everyone else). This situation could lead to allowing a few more explosive runs than the defense gave up last year, especially without safety Jaquan Brisker there to bail them out.
The star of Penn State's offense will be Parker Washington, an elusive, explosive slot receiver who also happens to have a great vertical. The Nittany Lions always have receiving talent, but what's available is less proven aside from Western Kentucky transfer Mitchell Tinsley, who caught 87 passes last year.
The other major addition to the offense is Nicholas Singleton, the top running back in the 2022 recruiting class. Singleton runs with an explosiveness a human with his build is not supposed to have, and he will probably plow through a few defenders over the course of his true freshman season.
Then there's Sean Clifford. Since establishing himself as a starter in 2019, Clifford has kept his completion rate about the same while averaging slightly fewer yards per attempt every subsequent year. There still are many worse quarterbacks in college football, and he's probably the one of the four best in the Big Ten. He has just more or less kept the same level, averaging out to solid with a few excellent games (Michigan State last November) mixed in with some duds (Arkansas last January). It's easy to overlook or dismiss quarterbacks like him, but Clifford has kept his job for this long for a reason. He'll keep Penn State's offense running at a decent level if his offensive line does him any favors for once.
There's more than a month between now and October 22. By then, we should know better whether this looks like a bounceback year for Penn State or another puzzling, underwhelming one. What's a certainty is that Beaver Stadium at night will not be hospitable to the traveling Gophers.
* * *
At the end of October, Fleck will face his mentor Greg Schiano for the first time. Fleck and four of his assistant coaches at one point worked at Rutgers, and two (Ciarrocca and Wenger, then a staffer) were there for Schiano's first stint as head coach. As if there wasn't enough cross-polination, former Minnesota safeties coach Joe Harasymiak is now the Rutgers defensive coordinator, and two ex-Gophers are on the Scarlet Knights' roster (Curtis Dunlap Jr. and Mayan Ahanotu). Though some fans might find it hard to care about a matchup that's occurred just twice before, the combatants will be plenty motivated.
Should the rest of the Big Ten be worried about Rutgers? Not quite yet, but Schiano looks to be building toward some level of respectability. He's signed seven composite 4-stars over the last two years, and the Scarlet Knights were a far more run-of-the-mill bad in 2021. That's progress, considering the state of the program during the Kyle Flood- and Chris Ash-led Intergregnum.
Continuing that upward trajectory will start with improving the offense. Last year's Scarlet Knights had the least explosive offense in all of FBS last season, per collegefootballdata.com, so that needs to change. Noah Vedral, the incumbent at quarterback, might lose his spot to the highly touted Gavin Wimsatt. Wimsatt's cameo last year suggests he has some work to do as a passer but can run around a bit — a valuable skill behind the Rutgers offensive line. The team loses thirty-nine line starts due to turnover and a position change, and they were already poor up front. At the skill positions, Shameen Jones and Syracuse transfer Taj Harris will try to make up for the loss of receiver Bo Melton, and blue-chipper Samuel Brown V might have the highest upside among options to succeed longtime tailback Isaih Pacheco. It's all a work in progress.
Most of the secondary was not young, so that group will probably not see too much improvement over a particularly implosion-prone 2021. Bo Melton's brother Max Melton, though, had a good sophomore year at cornerback and could give the Scarlet Knights at least one legitimate starter. That will be valuable, as they didn't get much of a pass rush last season and will be without reigning sack leader Mohamed Toure after a spring injury.
The Rutgers front will need rebuilding. As a group, it was fairly solid by most advanced metrics last season. Against the run, they tied for the 32nd-best success rate allowed in FBS and were 60th in explosiveness. But without Toure, and after losing players like Olakunle Fatukasi and Tyshon Fogg, there are some real unknowns. We may see former 4-star linebackers Khayri Benton and Anthony Johnson. This was the strongest area of the team, but it may take a step back.
* * *
The 2022 season for Nebraska began with a horrific loss to Northwestern in Dublin last week, as sure a sign as any that Scott Frost cannot turn around his beleaguered tenure in charge. The Gophers may be facing an interim head coach by the time they go to Lincoln, a trip that was supposed to mark the start of their schedule's most critical stretch.
Though plenty of attention has gone to Frost's decision to try a surprise onside kick in the third quarter of the opener, by far the most troubling part of the game was the Cornhuskers' defense. The Wildcats were atrocious offensively a year ago but gained 536 yards last Saturday. The kicking decision is easy to hone in on. Frost's ultimate failing as coach is that, five years into his tenure, Nebraska still cannot do the basic stuff right for 60 minutes.
The Blackshirts had trouble throwing teams off schedule in 2021 but in general succeeded at preventing big plays. Against a bad Northwestern passing game, they should have been able to repeat that. However, it looks like losing key defensive backs Cam Taylor-Britt, Deontai Williams, Marquel Dismuke, and JoJo Domann might be too costly. Northwestern created five explosive passes, per Game on Paper, posted a 55 percent success rate, and didn't allow one sack.
The Wildcats also ran well, bouncing off tackle attempts and running efficiently all game. By the fourth quarter, the Nebraska front looked finished. It lent credence to the idea that Frost's meatheaded braggadocio about players vomiting in practice betrays some issues with Nebraska's conditioning. Coordinator Erik Chinander has a lot to fix before going up against teams with bigger offensive lines and tougher running games.
The offense, meanwhile, was halfway capable to start the game. We'll get to the good half first. Quarterback Casey Thompson, a Texas transfer, took care of the ball, evaded pressure, and was in tune with what looks like a good group of pass-catchers. Transfer receivers Marcus Washington, Trey Palmer, and Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda, plus returning tight end Travis Vokolek, made some plays, and Nebraska put up some points.
Thompson lost his rhythm in the third quarter. He showed great improvisational ability but let his mistakes cascade: throwing into traffic, missing his receivers along the sideline, being on target but misplacing the ball, and putting so much velocity on his passes that they were hard to catch. His track record at Texas shows plenty of ability, but Thompson unraveling against the Wildcats legitimizes concerns over his consistency. If the Huskers rebound, it's because Thompson settles in and has the passing game working.
They must do better running the ball, though. Early returns — 4.4 yards per non-sack carry and a 34 percent success rate — suggest that Nebraska has serious problems on the offensive line. The Matt Lubick offense had problems with run blocking but hid that deficiency with an explosive quarterback run game, incorporating the option from time to time to great effect. (See last year's 56-7 romp over Northwestern.) New coordinator Mark Whipple called for a designed quarterback run exactly once, using backup Logan Smothers. Outside of one big play, running back Anthony Grant couldn't get anything done. Either the offensive line does a better job, Whipple finds a creative workaround, or the Huskers' run game basically doesn't exist.
In sum, we have a potentially one-dimensional offense, a defense coming off a calamitous 2022 debut, and a head coach whose teams have a staggering ability to fall apart in the fourth quarter, but who never publicly acknowledges that he might have something to do with it. There's enough talent for the Huskers to avoid going 3-9 again. It's mighty difficult to find six wins, however, now that they blew one of the supposedly easy ones. The Huskers might just be playing out the string by the time the Gophers go into Lincoln.
* * *
Many times before, Pat Fitzgerald's Northwestern has earned some benefit of the doubt, an understanding that the Wildcats may collapse every once in a while due to graduations, only to rebound within a year or two. The way that collapse manifested itself in 2021, however, means this year's team deserves no such faith, even after a surprise Week 0 victory.
While the early days of Northwestern's modern era were defined by offensive innovation, Fitzgerald's teams over the last six or seven years have been built on defense. Scoring has been optional because the other team wasn't going to score anyway. Even in reset years, the defense was respectable to good.
That was how it was with Mike Hankwitz still serving as defensive coordinator, anyway. In the first year of Jim O'Neil's tenure, everything fell apart. Northwestern ranked 108th in FBS by yards per play allowed, and stopped being good at... well, anything, except for preventing explosive passing plays. The Wildcats lost seven games by at least 17 points. There might not have been a more embarrassing defensive performance in the conference than their 56-7 drubbing at Nebraska, where it regularly looked like players didn't know their fits or even where the ball was.
Former All-American safety Brandon Joseph has transferred to Notre Dame. Five other starters are gone, including leading tackler Chris Bergin. There's some disruptiveness left in the secondary, but the solution to a horrific year typically isn't significant turnover.
Evan Hull and Cam Porter ran well against Nebraska, but they already figured to be the Wildcats' top skill players. I'm less convinced that the team's offensive line will have a good year, even with a top-notch left tackle in Peter Skowronski. The rest of the line, plus quarterback Ryan Hilinski and the passing game, have to prove that Northwestern can move the ball against teams that aren't a wreck. Even with a win in the bank, Northwestern is a decent bet to finish last in the West again.
* * *
Drawing Michigan and Ohio State from the East might make the difference in Iowa's ability to make the Big Ten title game, but the Hawkeyes will once again be in the running to win the West.
First, the good: There's a chance Iowa fields the best defense in the conference this year. There's real competition for this title: Penn State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan will be very good but don't have the same level of continuity. The Hawkeyes bring back all three starting linebackers (including preseason All-American Jack Campbell), three of four starting defensive linemen, and enough lettermen in the secondary to complement ballhawk Riley Moss.
There's also potential in former 4-star Cooper DeJean, who takes over for Dane Belton as Iowa's "Cash" slot corner, and in 5-star true freshman Xavier Nwankpa. Nwankpa isn't on the two-deep for Week 1 but could work his way into the mix at safety by the time the Hawkeyes come to Minneapolis. We should hesitate to say Iowa's defensive backs will be as good as before, losing Belton's disruptiveness and plugging a former walk-on, Quinn Schultze, into one of the safety spots. But Phil Parker's defenses have reliably prevented explosive plays for long enough to believe that the Hawkeyes again avoid hemorrhages at the back.
If there's a real issue on the Iowa defense, it's a pass rush that was rather mediocre last season. There might not be an elite pass rusher on the roster, but Joe Evans could have a big year after taking over as the starter at right end. Evans posted a 12.1 percent pressure rate last season (per Pro Football Focus), which was the highest on the team. So was Evans' sack total of 7.0, which tied that of backup tackle Lukas Van Ness. The Hawkeyes will need to find someone else who can get to the quarterback in addition to those two. That relative deficiency shouldn't get in the way of another excellent year on defense, though.
Now, the bad: Most aspects of the offense.
Spencer Petras will once again be the Hawkeyes' starting quarterback. Petras' position coach is now Brian Ferentz, who of course remains as offensive coordinator not because he calls a good game (make no mistake — he doesn't) or because he's good for the players (also no) but because his father is the head coach. The natural next step in his career was to move from coaching the position he actually played, offensive line, to coaching the most important position on the team.
The Hawkeyes already struggled to provide their quarterback with a supporting cast in 2021 but look even more hard-pressed in 2022. Receivers Tyrone Tracy and Charlie Jones transferred to Purdue. Running back Tyler Goodson is now in the NFL. So is center Tyler Linderbaum, by far the best player on a line that was uncharacteristically bad last year. Should the more mobile Alex Padilla take over for Petras at quarterback, that will alleviate some of the protection issues, but Padilla is not a good enough passer to be this offense's remedy. A young, thin receiver group must step up and provide an outlet other than tight end Sam LaPorta.
If the Gophers end their seven-game losing streak against the Hawkeyes this November, it's because their rivals just cannot score.
* * *
We know the drill with Wisconsin.
There might not have been a better non-Georgia front seven in college football a season ago. Though losing all but three of its core members will hurt, it seems impossible for that to lead to collapse. Tackle/end Isaiah Mullens and nose Keeanu Benton are the standouts along the defensive line. Outside linebacker/edge rusher Nick Herbig, who made 20.5 havoc plays a season ago, is joined at the position by a few well-regarded prospects. Though it looks like redshirt senior C.J. Goetz will start opposite Herbig, Minnehaha Academy alumnus Kaden Johnson and redshirt freshman Darryl Peterson should also figure into things.
If there are greater questions, they start at inside linebacker. Leo Chenal might have been the best player on the Badgers' defense a season ago (and on either side of last year's Border Battle), and Jack Sanborn wasn't too far behind. Though there's hype for Jordan Turner, he and all other players at the position combined for 19.0 tackles a season ago. The linebacker conveyor belt will surely continue dropping off future pros, but Chenal and Sanborn were a level of elite that's hard to replace. If the new pairing in the middle looks a little disappointing by comparison — especially early on — it shouldn't be a surprise.
The real concerns are in the secondary. After losing all five starting defensive backs, Paul Chryst went aggressively after transfers, and it looks like he's come away with two starters in addition to some depth: cornerback Jay Shaw from UCLA and nickelback Cedric Dort from Kentucky. Career reserve corner Alexander Smith is in line to start but is currently injured, which could mean redshirt freshman Ricardo Hallman fills in for Smith to open the year. Safety John Torchio represents the most proven member of this group; next to him will evidently be true sophomore Hunter Wohler. Outside of Torchio and probably Shaw, it's hard to have unwavering confidence in this group. Defending deep passes has at times been Wisconsin's only weakness on defense, and turnover might exacerbate that weakness.
On the other hand, SP+ still projects Wisconsin to have the 5th-best defense in FBS despite ranking 105th in returning production on that side of the ball. The computers know better than to doubt them.
Doubt is instead reserved for the Badgers' offense. Really, just the passing game. The offensive line should improve as it starts to break in former blue-chippers like Lakeville South's Riley Mahlman, the new right tackle in an otherwise experienced group. Braelon Allen is a Peterbilt with a rocket strapped onto its cab, and he was born when "Hey Ya!" was No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100. (I know announcers mention Allen's age an annoying amount, but it's absurd! He's the best running back in America, and he's 18!) Wisconsin will run well against most teams.
But as we saw when the Badgers were last in Minneapolis, a good enough defense can neutralize an otherwise formidable rushing attack if the offense cannot pass. Graham Mertz ultimately bears the burden of proof that this will change. However talented wideouts Chimere Dike and Skyler Bell are, and however sharp new coordinator Bobby Engram proves to be, the success of Wisconsin's offense, and perhaps who wins the West, hinges on the quarterback. It seems unwise to bet that Minnesota's defense can repeat the trick it pulled against Allen last November, but someone will trip up the Badgers if Mertz can't find his way.
* * *
In 2024, UCLA and USC will join the Big Ten. As soon as 2023, the conference may reshuffle or totally abandon its division structure. Both events will make it tougher for the current members of the West division to make a Big Ten championship, and to maybe go a little farther.
While Indiana, Maryland, and Rutgers have faced a near-impossible title game path against the titans of the East, the West has been defined by relative parity. While Iowa and Wisconsin have won the division more often than not, Northwestern has done so twice, and Minnesota and Nebraska have each threatened for titles. Even Purdue has a real chance this year. A trip to Indianapolis has been more attainable for these seven teams.
In years where the Rose Bowl is not a Playoff game, the Big Ten runner-up has twice received the conference's bid if the champion is in the Playoff. A good enough year — at least 10 wins and a top-15-ish ranking, one can figure — can put the West champion in Pasadena. Finishing second in a 16-team conference is far more daunting a task for a middle class program.
The 2022 season may therefore be Minnesota's last realistic chance to make a Rose Bowl, at least in the version of college football we recognize currently. We shouldn't expect the Gophers to probably ever make a Playoff semifinal (which the Rose Bowl is next year). And there's no telling what avenues will exist once the Playoff expands.
Is a Rose Bowl berth truly on the table for Minnesota this year? Absolutely. Iowa is weak enough offensively to finally relinquish Floyd of Rosedale. Wisconsin should be considered stuck in place at quarterback until proven otherwise. Purdue is capable but far from unbeatable opponent. Nebraska has talent, but... well, you know. Michigan State faces questions over turnover, and Penn State deserves skepticism after a 7-6 season last year. The Gophers will be favored against the other six teams on their schedule.
Of course, none of that means a dream season is on the way. We saw the Gophers drop two games they were favored in a year ago. We cannot count on this team winning 10 games when half the schedule is comprised of matchups that are 50-50 propositions or worse.
The current team has experience and depth but replaces a lot of departed starters, must get more out of its starting quarterback, and needs a more aggressive, creative, urgent approach from its coaches. Too much needs to go right to consider Minnesota the favorite in the West. It will be a good year, one where the Gophers' rose-tinted dreams can and should survive into November. And fans should allow themselves those dreams, even if the safe bet is against them coming true.
Predicted regular season record: 8-4
Predicted bowl: Music City Bowl (Nashville, Tennessee) vs. Arkansas
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