Midweek Review: Minnesota 22-27 Iowa

1. The Gophers lost because their head coach played scared on 4th down.

P.J. Fleck was defensive in his postgame press conference about his decisions to kick four field goals. "You always want touchdowns," he said. But the truth is that he did not coach like it.

Not on 4th-and-goal from the 2-yard line, given the chance to start building an early lead on a team without much of an offense. Not on 4th-and-1 from the 14-yard line to close the first half. Not on 4th-and-2 from the 11-yard line, when Minnesota trailed by 4 points in the second half. Fleck had opportunities to be aggressive but chose to take the points.

His most defensible kicking decision was a 4th-and-9 attempt from 53 yards out — which itself was questionable. Deploying Dragan Kesich for the kick made some sense, considering how limited Matthew Trickett's range is and the power in Kesich's left leg. But Kesich had yet to try a college field goal. Based on what I've seen from him in warmups and in August's open practice, Kesich's kicks are often line drives. Long field goal attempts sacrifice height for distance, but Kesich might be especially prone to low kicks. That heightened the possibility of a block, which is what happened.

Beyond those risks: 53-yard field goals don't often succeed. I haven't seen much accuracy from Kesich in the samples I mentioned. An unblocked attempt might have just missed. The odds of converting on 4th-and-9 weren't good either, but the reward was greater. Even if the Gophers made it but stalled out afterwards, they at least would have set up an easier field goal.

I'm not saying Fleck definitely should have gone for it in this spot, but doing so would have been a valid choice. (That he did not punt in that spot is only worth so much praise.)

The larger point is that Fleck had yet another game where he coached not to lose rather than to take the game. That is inexcusable any week, but to take such a conservative approach in a vital game for Minnesota's chances in the West — against a rival — is particularly egregious. That he was appropriately aggressive one time does not change the fact that Fleck's mismanagement throughout the game made the difference. He must change, or his team will keep losing the same way.

2. Errors kept Minnesota's passing attack from getting going. Minnesota still didn't try hard enough to attack Iowa deep until it was too late.

The one real weakness of Iowa's defense is its propensity to give up explosive passes. By collegefootballdata.com's explosiveness metric, Iowa's pass defense ranked 73rd in the country (excluding garbage time) entering Week 11. The Hawkeyes have a disruptive secondary, and they don't allow anything on the ground, but to beat them, an opposing team needs to get something going deep.

The Gophers didn't really try until the fourth quarter. Tanner Morgan didn't attempt a pass of 20 or more yards until the game's last period. Though some of that was because Morgan once again didn't notice open receivers downfield, it was also the result of co-coordinator Mike Sanford Jr. abandoning the deep passing game.

The thinking was likely something like this: Testing the Iowa secondary would put the ball in danger, so the conservative approach was better. The main problems with that in general are that offering no deep threat hinders the short and intermediate games, and that you have to create big plays to win games. Fleck talks about the importance of explosive plays all the time. It's something the team claims to value.

The problems specific to this game are Iowa's aforementioned propensity to allow explosive passes and Minnesota's problems in obvious pass situations. The line doesn't hold up as well. Morgan can sky passes, as he did to close the Illinois game and again did on a 3rd-and-17 Saturday:

Minnesota's quarterback was not good enough. His receivers, who dropped three passes, were not good enough. But Sanford's approach didn't attack the opposing team's weaknesses or put his offense in a favorable position at the end of the game.

That Minnesota's two touchdowns came on long touchdown throws — the first by Cole Kramer, the second by Morgan — underscored the point: The Gophers could have done more by going deep. Playing such a risk-averse game is perhaps the biggest reason they could not win back Floyd of Rosedale for a seventh straight year.

3. The playcall on Minnesota's 2-point conversion attempt was well-conceived but undone by a batted ball.

One of the frustrating things about Sanford as a playcaller is that sometimes he has good ideas. It's not often enough, and the overall direction of his offense needs to change, but he is capable of making smart, well-timed calls and implementing interesting wrinkles. There were a few such instances on Saturday. Some hit, but maybe the most critical one didn't.

After Autman-Bell's touchdown, Minnesota needed a 2-point conversion to tie the game. Sanford called for a rub concept, with Autman-Bell running into the flat across the formation as the play side receivers obstructed the other Hawkeye defenders. However, it was batted down by a blitzing Dane Belton.

I can't say with certainty that Autman-Bell would have scored. Brown-Stephens' route didn't take him far enough into safety Kaevon Merriweather to ensure a clean path to the pylon. (Doing so admittedly could have drawn a flag for offensive pass interference, but not every officiating crew would give that call.) But it was close enough to easily imagine the Gophers tying the game and facing a much more manageable task on offense for the rest of regulation.

If there was blame to go anywhere, it might have been on Ky Thomas for not being proactive enough in meeting Belton. On Morgan's rollout, Thomas was the personal protector. He likely didn't want to overcommit and let the play end in a sack if Belton changed direction, but Thomas needed to stay in front of the quarterback anyway. Right tackle Sam Schlueter, who stayed clean for the whole play because of a twist, also could have chipped the blitzer by just sticking a hand on Belton's shoulder. A fraction of a second more for his passer might have ensured this play was successful.

Morgan might also deserve some fault. It's likely not because of his size, but Morgan has tended to have his passes batted down at the line of scrimmage more than is typical. Among active Big Ten quarterbacks, he has one of the highest career rates of batted passes.

Minnesota's scheme has been a reason for Morgan's high bat rate to an extent: Short and intermediate throws, particularly those over the middle, are generally delivered on a lower angle. Throwing so many slants, then, gives linemen opportunities to break up passes.

In Morgan's case, though, it's a little tricky to figure out a root cause. According to Pro Football Focus' numbers, the highest single-season bat rate of his career (3.9 percent) was as a freshman, before Kirk Ciarrocca's "slants and fades" approach peaked. After a decline in 2019, Morgan nearly matched that figure (3.8 percent). This coincided with more throws outside the hashes and easy throws behind the line, the latter of which have rarely been deflected.

This season, even with an increase in deep balls, Morgan is working the middle more and is throwing more short passes than he has at any point in his career. His bat rate is the lowest it's ever been, at 2.0 percent.

Even if we acknowledge how relatively small our samples are, it's hard to pinpoint what causes Morgan's bat rate to fluctuate year-over-year. What we can say with certainty is that his baseline is still high. His release is quick enough, so we can't attribute it to that. Perhaps it's an issue of timing or of telegraphing throws — the latter of which we can confidently say has always applied to Morgan.

In the case of this play, anyway, it's arguable whether Morgan could have done anything differently. It looks like he was a little late to get rid of the ball, but we wouldn't say that with better blocking. Adjusting his arm angle might have gotten the ball around Belton but could have resulted in him missing his target. Changing the direction of his rollout would have thrown off the timing and intended angle of the pass. He just wasn't protected against a good call by Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker.

4. Kramer's pass to Ko Kieft was one of Minnesota's best calls all year.

This was one of Sanford's other high points Saturday. Fleck said that the Gophers knew Iowa would play Cover 0 against the Wildcat in short-yardage, and that's what they saw at the line. The Hawkeyes bit hard on Kramer's play fake, and Kieft snuck into the secondary for an easy catch that he took (just barely) into the end zone.

This was an excellent example of Minnesota being aggressive on 4th down and breaking from well-established tendencies at the right moment. There should be more.

5. The Gophers ran efficiently against a stout defense, largely by attacking the edge.

Notably, Minnesota didn't lean as much on heavy personnel this game. Instead, they made sure Iowa's defense was in nickel for most of the game and got their quick running backs in space on the outside with a simple concept: a toss.

It's not an invention, but it's a novel addition to the Minnesota offense that doesn't depart much from its focus. The blockers have to reach block the defenders outside of them, a lot like outside zone. The key difference is that the running back is able to get to the edge sooner because there's no mesh point, and he starts closer to where he needs to go.

The tactic worked — for the aforementioned reasons, but also because the execution was there. Minnesota's offensive line had one of its best days of the season. Mar'Keise Irving and Thomas demonstrated the awareness to look for lanes, and then they exploited them.

The line did its work on inside runs as well. By yards per carry, it wasn't a great day because few runs turned into big gains. But Minnesota consistently avoided stuffs and was considerably more efficient than most teams who face Iowa.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
line yards and success rate are via
collegefootballdata.com.

While the Gophers needed more explosive plays, and the fact they ran 48 times is a significant reason they didn't get them, the run game was working.

6. Tyler Goodson was not stymied but was contained.

Iowa's talented running back has had some difficulty finding room for himself this season behind a disappointing offensive line, but he still had to be feared. Goodson had averaged 7.2 yards per carry in two games against Minnesota, and he's still capable of picking up chunk plays. He did that a few times on Saturday, and in key moments, but for the most part, Iowa could not run the ball.

The Gophers' defensive line got penetration and either clogged lanes or stuffed the Hawkeyes' runs, as Micah Dew-Treadway did here:

Trill Carter added a couple of his own tackles for loss, and Mariano Sori-Marin gave a strong performance, but Minnesota defended well as a team. Iowa's attempts at misdirection didn't turn explosive, thanks to disciplined play on the back side, and defenders swarmed to the ball when the Hawkeyes went to their favored stretch runs. With only a few bad moments, Joe Rossi's unit mostly held up its end.

7. A series of ill-timed defensive lapses undermined Minnesota's good work.

Those bad moments became quite costly, though. We'll start with the couple of times the run defense broke on 3rd-and-long in the fourth quarter. The Gophers like to play a light front in these spots, pulling one of Sori-Marin or Jack Gibbens for a faster linebacker and playing three ends on the line. The first time it happened, Rossi called for a blitz. When the ball went away from Willis, he was eliminated from the play. Nyles Pinckney, facing potential first-round pick Tyler Linderbaum at center, couldn't shed his block. Gibbens didn't move far enough to his right to maintain the B gap, which is where Goodson went to convert.

That play immediately preceded a touchdown. (We'll get to how that happened momentarily.) Then, as the Hawkeyes tried to drain the clock, the Gophers let it happen again. The front side held up its end, but Gibbens overcommitting opened up a cutback lane. Goodson had plenty of room as the safeties closed in and stopped him just short of the line to gain.

Alex Padilla did the rest on a 4th-down sneak. The Hawkeyes got to run off about 90 seconds more than they otherwise would have, and Fleck had to use another precious timeout.

Then there was that touchdown.

Coney Durr had Keagan Johnson. Minnesota's best tackling defensive back was one-on-one with a receiver whose back was turned to him, and he never grabbed hold. That Thomas Rush never did either, arriving as Durr laid whatever hit he managed, is barely any more excusable. Two players who should be too good to completely miss a combined tackle in open space did just that. Carter was too slow to bring Johnson down as he hit the sideline. The linebackers were all drawn away from the throw by play-action. Tyler Nubin, taking an angle to where the play was designed to go, was out of position. It was a calamity.

On top of those errors, the Gophers dropped two sure interceptions earlier in the game. They wasted opportunities to get off the field and to give their offense good field position. Even as Minnesota's defense did plenty right, a handful of mishaps made sure it was not enough to win.

8. It was another eventful game for Justin Walley — in ways good and bad.

Opposing teams have picked on Walley a lot this year. By PFF's numbers, the true freshman has been targeted on 16 percent of his coverage snaps, the highest rate among Minnesota's top three outside corners.

At times, he's acquitted himself well. Walley leads the team in pass breakups, and he has yet to be called for pass interference this year. When he's been beaten, though, it's been costly, as on Charlie Jones' touchdown:

That play was immediately preceeded by Walley committing kick catch interference, gifting Iowa another 15 yards of field position and negating half the yardage of Mark Crawford's punt. (The ball was on the other side of midfield, so Crawford had to avoid a touchback. Even on 4th-and-7, punting was a questionable choice in that spot.) The other two catches Walley allowed, per PFF's tracking, totaled 51 yards.

Walley also forced and recovered a fumble that Minnesota's offense turned into points. Though he should have made an interception in the third quarter, it was still a play where he was in the right position to get his hands on the ball. If he keeps doing the right things, he'll get more of those chances and turn some of them into turnovers.

He later broke up another pass late and ended up Minnesota's highest-graded defensive back on PFF for the day. That's more generous than I would be with his performance, but in general, Walley is justifying Fleck's trust in him. He just needs to be more consistent and eliminate his worst mistakes.

9. Iowa asked more of Padilla, and the results were mixed.

One of the Hawkeyes' points of emphasis Saturday was play-action. They wanted to hurt the Gophers deep off of play-fakes, and a couple of times, each to Jones, it came off.

Padilla's other four passes of 20 or more yards fell incomplete (per PFF), even though he wasn't that far off on most of those throws. Another few times, he couldn't find anyone downfield and couldn't take a shot. For most of the game, the Gophers covered the deep part of the field effectively, and that helped them record eight pressures despite rarely blitzing. None of them turned into sacks, however, because Padilla knew when and how to improvise.

Padilla couldn't put the game out of reach — even accounting for drops, throwaways, and all the deep balls, 11-of-24 cannot count as a good day — but he flashed potential and didn't make mistakes. At the very least, having a more mobile quarterback than Spencer Petras gives Iowa a slightly more dynamic offense.

10. Having been essentially eliminated from the Big Ten West race, all the Gophers have left to play for are a slightly better bowl and a 6-foot long Axe.

Unless the Gophers win their final two games, it will hard not to view this season as a disappointment — not a failure, but a frustrating year where potential was squandered. Such a dramatic improvement on defense could have meant a Big Ten West title in a messy division, but maddening philosophy and subpar performances on offense have killed off that possibility. Two near-inconceivable losses to bad teams have deflated what could have been a great season.

Considering the last 50 years, Minnesota fans should know that bowl appearances are not a given. But this roster, under a fifth-year head coach, should have done better. Their earlier slip-ups have left them bound for probably seven regular season wins, with Wisconsin's recent performances making the odds appear increasingly long that the Gophers come away with any more.

Fans' frustration would be compounded by the Gophers failing to dispose of Indiana this coming Saturday, having already watched the Gophers trip over themselves twice this season. Even following that up with an upset win over the Badgers, while it would alleviate plenty of disappointment, might make the sting of yet another unnecessary loss even more unshakable: What could this year have been?

But, of course, our feelings are to sort out later. Minnesota has two more chances to make the lasting impression of the 2021 season a little more positive.

Next Game

Saturday's hosts, the Indiana Hoosiers, have fallen apart. Though the Hoosiers might have been a little overrated last season, they were certainly a good team, finishing 6-2 and 2nd in the Big Ten East. This year, they're 2-8, coming off a disastrous 38-3 loss to Rutgers. The four fumbles lost and two interceptions indicate it probably should have been closer, but it's unlikely a couple of favorable bounces would have made for a substantially less embarrassing final margin.

The offense has been broken ever since Michael Penix Jr. injured his shoulder early in the season. Tom Allen hopes Penix can return this season, but that feels difficult to picture after he didn't dress last week and has been out for more than a month. Backup Jack Tuttle hurt his foot against Ohio State, returned... and then hurt his other foot against Rutgers. True freshman Donaven McCulley has completed less than half of his passes; Grant Gremel handled garbage time against the Scarlet Knights and was also unimpressive.

Without Penix, receiver Ty Fryfogle and tight end Peyton Hendershot haven't gotten a lot of opportunities to cause problems for opposing defenses. With Penix, it was still tricky, considering how rarely Penix could stay upright. IU's offensive line was a problem last year, and it remains one in 2021. The Hoosiers' run game is nearly as nonexistent as their passing game.

One could almost say there's still life on Indiana's defense, but only in that linebacker Micah McFadden keeps making tackles for loss, cornerback Jaylin Williams keeps breaking up passes, and the Hoosiers have avoided hemorrhaging yardage all at once. But opponents have moved the ball as efficiently as they could want. The Hoosiers' line doesn't sack the quarterback, nor puts up a great fight against the run. The Gophers should be able to play their kind of game: methodical and (when it works) overpowering. Explosive plays are important every week, but Indiana won't allow many openings.

Of course, we've used the word "should" a lot with this team entering games like this one. The eye test suggests that the projections listed above (not usually adjusted for injuries) are a little too high on the Hoosiers. This looks like a relatively easy game. It's just that Bowling Green and Illinois should have been relatively easy, too. Minnesota has found ways to lose in these spots quite recently. That can't repeat itself in Bloomington.