Midweek Review: Illinois 14-6 Minnesota

1. For the second time this season, the Gophers were embarrassed on their own field.

It's not that it wasn't surprising. Though just over a month before, Minnesota fans bore witness to a similar sight — even down to the opposing team's most prominent color — that didn't make this instance more palatable. If anything, it made it worse in their minds: We knew this could happen, and here we are again. And that's what stung more than the surprise: the familiarity. 

Minnesota's loss to Illinois Saturday was inexcusable. Was it as great an upset as the loss to Bowling Green? No. Is it the first time this season that the Illini have gotten an improbable road win? Also no. But for all the talk P.J. Fleck and his players have given about being vulnerable every week, and treating every game like its own championship, to suffer the same fate twice makes those words ring hollow. To have done so for the same reasons that have cost the Gophers games in the past reflects a refusal to break from the way they want to play, regardless of if it is the right way. To have spoiled any chance of a trip to the Rose Bowl before even facing their toughest challenges is the kind of slip-up that embittered this program's fan base long ago.

Because despite what Fleck said coming into the game and has said in its aftermath, Illinois is not a good team. Minnesota, given as much as a 90-percent chance of winning by certain projections, should have made quick work of the visitors. But a hopeless offensive performance, compounded by mismanagement, killed all chance of victory.

2. Minnesota was undermined by predictable philosophy. Again.

On the Gophers' first eight possessions, they ran on 15 of 22 1st downs. Those runs gained at least half the yards to go (one analytical definition of a "successful" 1st down play) five times, making for a success rate of 33 percent on these plays. By a more technical definition, their early downs rushing success rate was a better but below-average 39 percent. The Gophers were not moving efficiently enough to justify all those early runs, especially considering how much of the game they spent trailing. This has been a recurring theme for them.

The Illini were prepared for the run, too. They frequently played a single high safety — so deep he regularly was off-screen, to be ready for one of Tanner Morgan's deep shots — and usually kept their two outside linebackers on the line.

Illinois did this even in nickel, bringing a safety into the box where an inside linebacker would normally be. Though overall, it was not a horrendous day running the ball, it was worse than it should have been. Entering the game, the Illini ranked 93rd in rushing success rate allowed (via collegefootballdata.com) and 121st in stuff rate (via Football Outsiders). They improved their season-long averages in each statistic Saturday, making a couple of vital short-yardage stops as well. The Gophers may not produce a lot of big runs, but their line is too big and strong to have not asserted themselves against a poor opponent. This was a failure of both philosophy and execution.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
line yards and success rate are via
collegefootballdata.com.

When facing 2nd-and-long, offensive coordinator Mike Sanford Jr. regularly did something perplexing: play-action. Not only is play-action less effective in passing downs; these plays also take longer to develop, putting stress on an offensive line that has often struggled with pass sets. Rather than abandoning the idea, Sanford tried to alleviate the blockers' task by calling for max protection. That meant just two receivers running routes, which left Morgan nowhere to put the ball.

Left tackle Sam Schlueter had a dreadful day. Though Morgan's fumble on the above play was the result of Mar'Keise Irving not picking up the blitz well enough after the play fake, you can see Owen Carney Jr. shoving Schlueter into Morgan. This likely would have ended in a sack anyway. Pro Football Focus credited Schlueter with allowing six pressures, easily the most on the team.

On 3rd-and-long, Sanford put his line in more bad positions, often playing an empty backfield or with the tight end flexed. This forced the Gophers' linemen into one-on-ones — or, worse yet, facing a blitz with no support. These were back-to-back plays, the first of which Morgan saved by improvising:

Morgan was sacked six times, and all but one of them came on passing downs. This should not have been a surprising outcome for a playcaller who has seen these veteran linemen every day in practice for more than a year and who has seen these same tendencies burn them in the recent past. You don't even need that much context. A quick look at Football Outsiders' line stats page will tell you that the Gophers allow far more sacks in passing downs than they do in standard downs. In this game, Sanford left his linemen and his quarterback out to dry.

3. Sanford's run as coordinator has failed.

I have said multiple times that Kirk Ciarrocca was an imperfect playcaller, and that Fleck bears plenty of blame for the Gophers' inflexible offensive approach. I do not want to give the incorrect impression that the problems with Minnesota are entirely Sanford's doing, nor do I want to suggest that he has zero ability to design or call plays.

However, what is there to say except that he has not done a good enough job? He inherited a deep and experienced offensive line group, a quarterback whose 2019 reputation was always too lofty but who was still among the best in the Big Ten, plenty of talent at receiver, and good running backs. Every position has seen continuity into 2021 and been supplemented by young, capable players. Sanford has had all the available tools a coordinator could want.

Yet the offense has twice been shut down by poor defenses this season and has habitually run into the same problems of predictability and timidness over and over again. The Gophers repeatedly hand the ball off on early downs — even against good run defenses, despite disadvantageous box counts, and as opponents catch on to their sideline checks. They force their offensive linemen into pass blocking situations they cannot win. They have no urgency, even when trailing. They don't recognize that "shortening the game" can backfire against inferior opponents whose key to winning often means fewer possessions. They ignore their receivers until late in games. Morgan — for whom Sanford is the position coach — is a worse quarterback than he was under Ciarrocca.

Larger philosophical problems are as much about Fleck as anyone: He prioritizes time of possession. He cites the importance of running the ball in the Big Ten (as if conformity is a necessity). He can dictate at what pace the offense runs. He was there for Ciarrocca's problems the same way he is here for Sanford's. More is required of Minnesota's head coach on gameday.

But evolving starts with removing the person who routinely mismanages drives, and under whom a fourth-year starting quarterback has with increasing regularity played worse than he did as a freshman. Sanford cannot call plays for this team in 2022. Minnesota must find a coordinator who will be more aggressive and creative, even his style isn't Fleck's favorite. Otherwise, there will continue to be an artificial ceiling on the Gophers' offense, with the kind of floor that leads to scoring a combined 16 points against Bowling Green and Illinois.

4. Morgan played one of the worst games of his career.

Even granting the playcalling and blocking issues that made his life harder, Morgan just wasn't good enough. He scrambled well by his standards but responded poorly to pressure in general. He never saw wide open receivers. He at times threw to nobody. Aside from Minnesota's late touchdown drive, Morgan looked nowhere near good enough.

Morgan's 6.4 yards per attempt was the second-lowest mark of his season. It was also the fifth time he's hit that mark or lower since the start of 2020. He did so just once as a starter in 2018 and never did in 2019. He's clearly not the same as he was a couple of years ago. What can be done at this point?

5. Whether you trust him or not, Fleck is sticking with Morgan. That's probably right.

After a game like Morgan just had, there were bound to be questions about whether he should continue as the Gophers' starter. There were certainly plenty of calls for his replacement in the stands Saturday. He's taken enough steps backward for him to no longer be the limited but reliable starter he once was; now, Morgan is a bus driver — or even a passenger — most weeks, with higher potential than before for disastrous performances like Saturday. Surely some change would help the Gophers, right?

Considering the available alternatives, I'm not inclined to believe so. Based on pregame warmups, four-star true freshman Athan Kaliakmanis is seemingly about the fifth-string quarterback, so he's off the table for 2021. We have seen too little of Cole Kramer as a passer to believe in him, and we've seen even less of Jacob Clark. That leaves second-stringer Zack Annexstad, who has not thrown a competitive pass in three years and looked clearly worse than Morgan in the 2021 spring game. (Not that this sample is recent enough to be informative, but for what it's worth: Annexstad was the worse quarterback in 2018 as well.)

The situation reminds me of the player Morgan just passed on the program's career passing yards leaderboard: Mitch Leidner. Minnesota fans viewed Leidner as a disappointment because he didn't build on better-than-terrible performances as an underclassman to become more than a better-than-terrible upperclassman. He was a frustrating player who at times could deliver excellent throws but at others was a major liability.

Leidner was also the only viable option. I distinctly remember, during a 34-32 "win" over Rutgers in 2016, the students chanting, "We want Rhoda" — meaning Conor Rhoda, Minnesota's backup at the time. This felt like a bad idea to me at the time. We eventually got proof that it was, for the next year, those students got Rhoda. He and Demry Croft combined to form one of the worst quarterback duos in America.

Morgan is a better quarterback than Leidner was. I also would like to think that Annexstad is better than Rhoda (and certainly Croft). But that situation should be instructive: Sometimes the disappointing incumbent really is the best option.

6. The Illini did most of their damage on two drives.

For nearly 45 minutes, Minnesota shut out Illinois, which should be enough help for any offense to win. That doesn't change the fact that for the first quarter, the battle for the line of scrimmage was definitively in the favor of the Illini. With their first two possessions, the visitors ran for 93 yards on 15 carries, with no runs stuffed at or behind the line and four carries gaining 10 or more yards. Though Chase Brown never broke off a huge run, he didn't face many obstacles and took advantage of open gaps. This 19-yarder was his long for the day:

Minnesota's line, the defense's greatest strength this season, looked outmatched against a set of Illinois blockers with plenty of experience but nothing approaching the production of an above-average line. This should have been a manageable task, but at least at first, it was anything but.

Though the Gophers' defense just did its job for the rest of the game, these early struggles immediately put the game exactly where Illinois wanted it. As underdogs, the Illini already wanted there to be as few total possessions as possible. As a team coached by Bret Bielema, with a talented tailback but one of the worst passers in the Big Ten, they were going to keep the ball on the ground unless the Gophers built an early lead. To be up 14-0 meant they were in their ideal game state and could take as much time as they wanted, limiting the Gophers' chances to come back.

7. Minnesota's defense settled in but saw some occasional, minor breaks.

After those first two drives, Minnesota held Illinois to 3.4 yards per non-sack carry and prevented another score. Jack Gibbens had one of his typically solid games, finishing with 6.5 tackles and a part in a team-best nine "stops" as defined by Pro Football Focus. Here, he fought off a block by tight end Daniel Barker to wrangle Brown on 3rd down.

It was not a flawless second-half performance, though. The below chart, showing the expected points added for Illinois' rushing attack as the game progressed, shows what I mean.

EPA via Game on Paper.

Broadly, the Gophers did what they needed to do after weathering the Illini's early push. But they never stabilized or created as many negative plays as they could have. Brown's first two carries of the second half each resulted in 7-yard gains, which he would match another four times by the end of the game. The Gophers made just two stuffs after halftime (half their total for the game). The Illini's two shortest drives were the result of penalties forcing passing downs rather than the Gophers doing anything to throw them off schedule. In the aggregate, it became an acceptable day statistically.

The biggest positive is that the Gophers continued their run of preventing chunk plays on the ground. Only Ohio State and Nebraska, two teams who break off explosive runs frequently, have caused any major gashes. And the Cornhuskers' top weapon, quarterback Adrian Martinez, was held in check as a runner. The Gophers have been pretty sound on defense.

8. Matthew Trickett's production been worse than expected but fine overall.

Before the season, I was bullish on Trickett. The 2019 MAC Special Teams Player of the Year was excellent at Kent State and addressed a serious and long-running area of need for Minnesota. But he currently ranks 128th in FBS in both field goal and extra point conversion rate. At a glance, he's been a major disappointment.

I don't think that assessment is fair when you consider the kicks he's been required to make. In the post I just linked, I included a breakdown of all his kicks as a Golden Flash and compared them to what an average Power Five kicker would be expected to make. I concluded that over three years, he was 5 to 6 percent better than expectation. Let's now use a different version of the same chart, with Trickett's Minnesota statistics instead.

Estimates via Stadium.

Five of Trickett's seven misses (which includes one block) have been from 45 yards or farther. On all other kicks, he's 8-of-10 — essentially one kick away from matching his Kent State conversion rate on attempts shorter than 45 yards. One kick is also the difference between his expected and actual conversion rates. The only truly unforgivable miss on Trickett's ledger is the 24-yarder at Colorado.

Otherwise, it seems that Fleck has trusted his kicker too much to make longer attempts. Trickett had a pretty defined range with the Golden Flashes: He was excellent within 44 yards, but he had just eight tries from a longer distance over three seasons and only made three. The Gophers have more information than the public ever can because they see Trickett in practice every day, but based on what we have, it doesn't look like he is being put in the best positions.

As for the two extra point misses? Those are obviously a problem. The miss Saturday practically eliminated the possibility of a regulation win. I must also reiterate that we're dealing with samples too small to draw any large conclusions. While Trickett needs to do better, we also have plenty of data suggesting that he is a capable placekicker who in time will do better.

9. With three games (plus a bowl) left, it's worth keeping an eye on next year's regulars.

The positive effect of so many players gaining another year of eligibility due to the pandemic-shortened 2020 season is that Minnesota is a deep and experienced team, which has played a big part in ensuring bowl eligibility.

We may see a negative effect in 2022. With so many seniors in the lineup, the Gophers could see major turnover on both sides of the ball. The Gophers' five offensive starting linemen all either are on their final years of eligibility or good bets to leave school early for the NFL. Ko Kieft is done after this year. Morgan and Chris Autman-Bell could each decide not to return next year.

On defense, the changes could also be substantial. Boye Mafe and possibly Esezi Otomewo are NFL prospects as well. Micah Dew-Treadway and Nyles Pinckney will be out of eligibility, and so will Gibbens. Jordan Howden, Thomas Rush, and Mariano Sori-Marin are seniors. Justus Harris is in his fifth year. Coney Durr might have a route to a seventh year — in addition to the extra year for the pandemic, he was granted a medical waiver for missing 2017 — but that's unclear. Durr may not want it anyway. Veteran backups are also on their way out, including cornerback Phillip Howard Jr.

There aren't many chances to watch who might start at the soon-to-be vacated offensive positions. But on defense, a handful of young players have received playing time in recent weeks or throughout the season. M.J. Anderson has made his mark repeatedly and looks ready to take over at 5-technique. Meanwhile, Rashad Cheney Jr., Michael Dixon, Donald Willis, and others have gotten far fewer opportunities. What they do with the snaps they get could determine whether they have starting jobs in 2022.

10. Minnesota's prospects of winning the West are not over, but making a significant bowl game should be considered off the table at this point.

The "good" news is that this loss doesn't matter as much as beating Iowa and Wisconsin. The bad news is that it removes just about all margin for error. Minnesota's FPI-calculated odds of winning the Big Ten West are down to 17 percent. Unless the Gophers get help from an unexpected place, they must win out to claim the division title. SP+, which is higher on the Gophers than other advanced metric systems, says there's an 11-percent chance that happens.

With that in mind, it's not worth dreaming about where the Gophers are headed in the postseason. Losing to the Illini killed off any higher aspirations.

A hypothetical 10-3 Minnesota — with two losses to a top-tier Ohio State and one seemingly bizarre loss to Bowling Green — would have had a good case for a Rose Bowl bid. Minnesota's (odd) No. 20 position in the initial Playoff Committee rankings gave credence to this theory: If the Gophers kept winning, they could have climbed as high as No. 10 or so, at which point they'd be close enough to the top teams in the East to not be unreasonable invitees. After a second humiliating loss to a bad team, however, Minnesota's only route to Pasadena likely requires winning the conference. And it's not outlandish or overly pessimist to rule out that scenario entirely.

The best-case scenario probably sees a 9-4 Minnesota, after winning the West, third or fourth in line for a Big Ten-tied bowl. Maybe that means a return to Tampa, or perhaps the program's second trip to the Citrus Bowl in the last decade.

More likely is that the Gophers lose another game or two and are bound for a less attractive destination. CBS Sports projects them for the Pinstripe Bowl in the Bronx; ESPN's analysts see the Cactus and Las Vegas bowls. If the last three weeks go exceptionally poorly, maybe Minnesota ends up in the Motor City Bowl again, facing another team from a particularly messy and mediocre MAC.

The bottom line is that the Gophers probably need a couple more wins to make sure they avoid the least appealing destinations of the bowl season.

Next Game

Minnesota's first chance to boost their bowl résumé comes in the form of a visit to Kinnick Stadium, where the Gophers famously haven't won since 1999. Considering the state of each team, it has great potential to be an abominable game of football.

Iowa has the worse offense of the two. Spencer Petras has been one of the worst quarterbacks in a conference starved for good quarterback play. He started last week against Northwestern despite a shoulder injury and had to leave early after it quickly became apparent he could not perform.

Alex Padilla played the rest of the game and led the Hawkeyes to a 17-12 win. Padilla will evidently start Saturday. He may give the Hawkeyes' offense more of an attacking threat than usual, but the fact it took an injury to get Padilla on the field may foreshadow the opposite. We really can't speak authoritatively about the player who has thrown 44 college passes.

Iowa will mostly stay on the ground, however. Even with a subpar line outside of center Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa has a well-established style of play that will mean plenty of carries for Tyler Goodson and Ivory Kelly-Martin. Goodson has averaged 7.2 yards per carry in two games against Minnesota. When given opportunities in the past, he's been one of the most explosive backs in the Big Ten. Those opportunities haven't come, though, and Iowa hasn't had a real source of big plays.

To wit: Tight end Sam LaPorta is easily the Hawkeyes' leading receiver. Wideouts Nico Ragaini, Tyrone Tracy Jr., and Charlie Jones are all upperclassmen who have never demonstrated a capacity to consistently burn defenses. True freshman Keagan Johnson has gone off a few times but does not see much of the ball. This is an offense with very little punch.

The reason Iowa started the season 6-0, of course, is Phil Parker's defense. Though the Hawkeyes' absurd early-season interception totals were never sustainable, what was always repeatable was how often Iowa created turnover opportunities. The Hawkeyes' starting secondary has combined for 27 passes defensed (breakups plus interceptions), and linebackers Jack Campbell and Jestin Jacobs have added another nine. Though there isn't much of a pass rush to speak of aside from Lukas Van Ness, Iowa is plenty disruptive. Nickelback (or "Cash") Dane Belton leads the team with 11.0 havoc plays but is far from the only player the Gophers have to worry about. Cornerback Matt Hankins is another playmaker; his counterpart, Riley Moss, hasn't played since the Penn State game but might return Saturday and offer another threat on the outside.

The key to Iowa's defensive success has long been preventing big plays, and that hasn't changed — partly. According to collegefootballdata.com's metrics, the Hawkeyes' run defense is the second-least susceptible in FBS to explosive plays. However, their pass defense rank 73rd in the same statistic because the few moments it breaks are often costly. That's one of the few cracks in this defense Minnesota will have to exploit. The Gophers haven't passed very efficiently this season but do make the punches they land count.

Of course, the team that gave Iowa the most trouble was Purdue, a team whose passing game lives around the line of scrimmage with pick plays and short timing routes. Though Minnesota's receiving group is solid, the Gophers have no David Bell to pick up yards after the catch. Not that that's Bell's only skill. He hurt the Hawks any way he wanted, including (in rare instances) by the direct route:

Morgan has shown in the past he can hit the deep ball. This year, though, he's habitually missed his receivers and forced throws into difficult spots. The Hawkeyes will absolutely key on the run and get their hands up at the line to bat down slants. For the Gophers to pose any vertical threat, Morgan has to nail his longer passes. He doesn't need to do that a ton, but he will have to a few times to open up space for his running backs and inch his team ahead in what looks to be a low-scoring affair.

Iowa's run defense is one of the best in America, which hasn't stopped a Fleck team from incessantly running the ball before. And considering how bad Morgan most recently has been, that will probably be the case this time. I can't say that's totally invalid, but Minnesota cannot just run into a wall and hope they knock slightly more bricks lose than Iowa does. Kirk Ferentz, in his visible disdain for Fleck, likely will throw in a few wrinkles to test the discipline of Joe Rossi's defense. If Fleck and Sanford are less aggressive and creative than Kirk and Brian Ferentz, that can only end in failure. Neither offense appears built to play from behind, so whoever can seize a two-possession lead might never relinquish it.