Midweek Review: Bowling Green 14-10 Minnesota

1. This was the most inexcusable performance of the P.J. Fleck era.

The Gophers were 30.5-point favorites entering the game. Depending on which projection system you prefer, they were given a roughly 97-percent chance of winning. After the win at Colorado, Minnesota had jumped to 30th in the Massey Composite, a full 95 spots above the visitors. Fleck, in his fifth season in charge, has raised the program's level in recruiting and has a roster consisting nearly entirely of players he signed. The starting lineup on both sides of the ball is full of upperclassmen, many of whom were starters or contributors to the team that went 11-2 two seasons ago.

Bowling Green had not beaten an FBS opponent in nearly two years. The Falcons' roster was full of underclassmen, many of whom along the lines were 20 or more pounds lighter than the Gophers lining up against them. Their head coach, Scot Loeffler, has spent the last decade riding the fact that he was once was Tim Tebow's position coach, getting this job after three seasons of coordinating dreadful offenses at Boston College. He was likely to be fired after this season and still might be, seeing as how this was just the fifth win of his tenure.

Save for a catastrophic rash of injuries and bizarre turnovers, there was no reason for Minnesota to have lost this game. (And even that scenario might not provide enough of an excuse.) If it was merely close, there would be reason for worry and sharp criticism. And the Gophers lost. They lost because they beat themselves with a conservative offensive philosophy that has gotten them in trouble in the past but never changed, as well as sloppy play.

As embarrassments go, the Gophers have not suffered anything comparable since losing to South Dakota in Tim Brewster's final season. It was fully avoidable.

2. This is a reckoning for Minnesota's obsession with ball control.

After Minnesota beat Auburn to close the 2019 season, I devoted a chunk of my recap to time of possession, which is a statistic that requires far too much context to be considered meaningful by itself. Among other things on pace and possessions, I wrote this:

What limiting possessions does in turn is put more pressure on each side's offense: You only have so many opportunities to score, and you cannot squander them. When you have an efficient offense, or you're facing an opponent with a talent advantage, then it's more reasonable to try to limit the number of possessions. Minnesota has one of the most efficient offenses in the country, and Auburn is probably more talented, so that made a low-possession game a better idea.

When you are the favorites, you should not play the way you would as the underdogs. In that spot, you should not "shorten the game," as Fleck likes to say, until the lead is secure. Having more possessions benefits the team with better players (especially a better offense) because a larger sample means more opportunity for talent to win out. A smaller sample means variance will play a larger role in the outcome in the game. In a sport that can get chaotic, the better team should limit the impact of chaos.

For that reason, Minnesota should have been more aggressive. On their first 11 drives, the Gophers ran on 17 of 23 1st downs. On their first 10 drives, Morgan dropped back 17 times on 48 plays, throwing nine passes. For the game, Minnesota averaged more seconds per play than BGSU (which includes the Falcons' game-ending kneeldown).

Saturday's loss is one of the risks of playing a conservative game. When your plodding, "ball control" offense isn't moving the way you want it to, you have fewer opportunities to make up for that fact.

An additional risk is that you become predictable, and your "bread and butter" becomes self-defeating.

Early on, it was clear that BGSU knew what to expect from the Gophers' heavy sets. Even on 2nd-and-9, a definite passing down, they didn't back off the line.

That held true for most of the game. Even so, the Gophers succeeded at one of their goals: bullying the undersized Falcons at the line of scrimmage. Minnesota's 4.2 line yards per carry is the team's highest mark of the season, and they allowed a fairly low 14.6 percent stuff rate. Size and experience won out at the point of attack.

But positive plays are not always successful ones. BGSU held Minnesota to a merely okay rushing success rate of 46 percent, and they didn't allow regularly the Gophers into the secondary.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
line yards and success rate are via
collegefootballdata.com.

The stats have looked different by game, but the general trend this season is the same. On the stat sheet, it looks like the Gophers' offensive line is doing everything possible to create big play opportunities, and the team's running backs are failing to capitalize. But the truth is that there are too many bodies in the way for good blocking to always mean staying on schedule, or for 4-yard gains to consistently become 8-yard gains. Averaging 5 yards per carry on so many attempts does not mean gaining 5 yards on every attempt. And at some point, you need big plays, which this approach isn't getting.

By running so much (on 70 percent of plays this season), and by using six or more linemen so often (on 35 percent), Minnesota invites defenses to disregard the pass. But instead of taking advantage of what the defense gives, as all those pre-snap checks to the sideline are supposed to ensure, the Gophers often don't throw the ball until faced with a passing down. And unlike two seasons ago, they never go deep, which doesn't keep the safeties honest, which keeps them in a good position to stop the run. Each part of the philosophical problem feeds into another and makes it worse.

What is frustrating about this loss is that the Gophers have been here before. The team's 1st down run rate is high every week. Their heavy personnel sets attract extra defenders to the box every week. They gave away a lead to Maryland a year ago in large part due to blind trust in the team's rushing attack. Facing Wisconsin's formidable run defense didn't dissuade running on roughly three-quarters of 1st downs last December. In the 2021 opener, Ohio State stifled the Gophers' rushing attack despite the offensive line playing a pretty decent game. And just two weeks ago, an unremarkable Miami team was able to claw back into the game because Minnesota sat on the ball in the second half.

This staff has never learned its lesson. As much as Fleck is at fault for never changing philosophies — as I've said, the offense was too not creative enough even with Kirk Ciarrocca as coordinator — the bottom line is that Mike Sanford Jr.'s playcalling has gotten more stale than it ever was under his predecessor. Either he opens up the offense, or he needs to go.

3. Morgan was not good enough.

These statements can all be true:

• Minnesota did not throw the ball enough.
• When Morgan dropped back to throw, he did not receive enough protection.
• By playing a conservative, sloppy game that kept the game closer than it needed to be, the Gophers as a team put their quarterback in an unnecessarily difficult position in the fourth quarter.
• It is unfair to judge a passer too harshly on just 13 attempts, especially when four of those attempts came in the middle of that unnecessarily difficult position.
• Morgan's two interceptions were the worst moments in a performance that was underwhelming at best.

On the first pick, I'm not sure what Morgan could have done differently. Getting hit when he threw cut off his follow-through, and it looked like the Falcons covered four verticals pretty well. Even if he didn't stare down Dylan Wright, there's a good chance this play ends in an interception anyway — or, more likely, a sack, as Daniel Faalele let the rush reach Morgan pretty quickly. The only thing for which I'd like a look at the all-22 footage is to see whether Daniel Jackson was coming open on the near sideline, and I don't think there was time to get the ball to him.

Now, the second interception? That was baaaaaaad.

Morgan locked onto Mike Brown-Stephens from the snap, ignored a wide open Brady Boyd underneath (possibly because of how little time there was, but still), and threw directly at one of two defenders in the area. This is the kind of throw a freshman tries, and Morgan is a fourth-year starter.

Morgan's passing chart is sparsely populated and lackluster. He completed one pass to a target more than 5 yards downfield and finished with the smallest yardage and completions totals of his career as a starter.

To be a little kinder to him, Morgan spent much of the game under pressure. Two incompletions were broken up at the line. Nine of his 22 dropbacks came on 3rd down, and just two of the nine ended with a pass being thrown. The others ended in a sack or a scramble. Likely knowing that the Minnesota line isn't as effective in straight pass sets, Bowling Green went after Morgan on passing downs.

But even while granting Morgan every break possible, you can't say he was even passable. Unless you count throws negated by penalties, his five scrambles for 29 yards were the best part of his day. While I think that he should have had more opportunities early in the game, that he was let down by his teammates, and that his final stats would have looked better if he got those opportunities, Morgan did not do nearly enough with the chances he had. He must be better for Minnesota's offense to live up to its potential.

4. The one moment where Fleck was aggressive, he got burned.

In Week 1, the Gophers converted a 4th-and-1 from their own 29-yard line. It came in an important moment: Already down two possessions to Ohio State, Minnesota could not afford to give away the ball. And with a line that is built for these spots, 1 yard should not be too great a challenge. Though they eventually lost, the conversion kept the Gophers in the game.

Saturday, the Gophers did not convert a 4th-and-1 from their own 29-yard line. It was not as vital, considering the opponent, but that opponent made converting more likely and less risky than it was against OSU. And again: it's 1 yard. Fleck was just as correct in going for it in this spot as he was in that game. Failure to convert often comes with considerable downside though, and Minnesota experienced it when Bowling Green went up 7-3 a few plays later.

That was the only time in this game where Fleck took the aggressive option.

Earlier in the second quarter, down 3-0, Minnesota faced 4th-and-14 from the BGSU 37-yard line. Instead of trying a 54-yard field goal with Matthew Trickett or Dragan Kesich, Fleck decided to punt. That early in the game, none of the potential consequences of failure — an arm-punted interception, a sack, a fumble, or just a regular turnover on downs — would be so costly against such an inferior opponent that going for it is not worth trying. According to Jared Lee and A.I. Sports' 4th down calculator, the win probability following a punt in that spot would not be significantly higher than that following the average failed conversion attempt.

In other words, the math says that it's a wash. On principle, only in extreme circumstances should a team punt from within the opponents' 40-yard line. Minnesota did so twice. When you also consider the quality of opponent and how much time there was to make up for failure, the limit on how much you can gain in field position should be enough to disqualify punting as an option. (Mark Crawford did well to avoid touchbacks on the two punts but only netted 35 and 33 yards.)

Additionally, Fleck and the Gophers once again did not adjust their pace late in halves. With 67 seconds left in the first half, they got the ball back with two timeouts. On 1st down, Treyson Potts ran for 0 yards. Fleck used neither timeout. On 2nd down, Morgan couldn't find an option downfield and checked down for a 2-yard gain. When the whistle blew on that play, there were 44 seconds left. Fleck used neither timeout. The Gophers snapped it again with 2 seconds remaining and tried a split-zone run that unsurprisingly did not end in a touchdown.

With less than 8 minutes left in the fourth quarter, the Gophers now trailed. They had 92 yards to go to score. On five of eight plays, including three 1st downs, Minnesota ran. After just getting to his own 34-yard line, Fleck punted, handing the ball over with 3:33 left in the game. The Gophers next received the ball with 2:19 left, two timeouts shorter.

Not every coach needs to be Kevin Kelley. But Fleck, like just about every coach in the sport, needs to do his job with greater urgency and be less risk-averse.

5. The Gophers committed some silly penalties that set themselves back.

After a couple of needless but more or less inconsequential infractions in the first half, the Gophers played an undisciplined second half that undermined their efforts to put away the game. Sam Schlueter (who had an all-around rough game) negated a 10-yard game by holding a defender. DeAngelo Carter eliminated his own sack by grabbing the quarterback's facemask. Phillip Howard was a little unlucky to be called for roughing the kicker instead of running into the kicker, which gave BGSU a new set of downs, but being too close to the punter was Howard's own doing. Later on that drive, Val Martin lined up over the long snapper on a missed field goal, handing the Falcons enough free yards to move the chains and kill more time.

None of these fouls directly led to any swings in scoring, but they were untimely and too many in number. 71 penalty yards is Minnesota's fourth-most in a game under Fleck. That the Gophers hurt their chances by undoing their own good work, creating worse field position for themselves, and extending opposing drives is both uncharacteristic of the program and another way they threw this game away.

6. The defense did its job.

When it allowed one run of 10 or more yards, and just three of 4 or more yards, the defense cannot be blamed for this loss.

It was another strong day for the Gophers' front six, who gave little on the ground and (according to Pro Football Focus) pressured Bowling Green's Matt McDonald on 38 percent of his dropbacks, sacking him four times. Nyles Pinckney and Carter had perhaps their best games as Gophers.

Mariano Sori-Marin, meanwhile, was one of Minnesota's most important players in defending the pass. In addition to his well-read interception, Sori-Marin finished with 6.5 tackles and a pass breakup, and he allowed just 17 yards on the four completions credited against him by PFF. The senior was consistently in position to make stops and limit damage.

For the most part, that carried over to the secondary as well. Any time you hold an opposing quarterback to 4.9 yards per attempt, you have to be pleased. As a team, the Gophers allowed an average of 3.5 yards after the catch (per PFF) and broke up seven passes. They did their job.

Outside of BGSU's eight-play, 68-yard scoring drive — an outlier — Joe Rossi's defense had its second consecutive strong performance.

7. McDonald evaded pressure and created plays that shouldn't have happened.

The one aggravating part of Minnesota's day on defense was how often McDonald caused problems while improvising. According to PFF's numbers, his completion rate under pressure was actually higher than it was without pressure (60 percent versus 52 percent). He also scrambled three times for 21 yards. It wasn't enough for BGSU to win, or even just to make up for McDonald's deficiencies in the pocket, but the Gophers can't keep giving up throws like this when they've just about won the down.

8. The Gophers have yet to finish a game with a clean bill of health.

Chris Autman-Bell was hobbling after his first snap and left the game after his second. According to Fleck, Wright was limited. Ko Kieft had to sit out some plays. Though he returned, Coney Durr picked up an early injury. M.J. Anderson twice received attention and left the field.

None of these are catastrophic. (Fleck was optimistic about Autman-Bell and said Wright would be fine on Monday.) But even the small things can cause problems. It means continually going deeper into the team's reserves. Douglas Emilien played some receiver, and Jalen Logan-Redding took a few snaps in Anderson's stead. It can push you to alter your approach, which I'm sure can partially explain how little the Gophers passed. And there has to be a long-term effect to picking up more knocks, where in November, regulars need to be rotated out more or aren't as sharp as they normally would be.

There isn't necessarily anyone to blame for how often the Gophers are losing players for moments at a time. It's a decidedly negative trend, however, and they need it to stop.

9. Minnesota's change to the alternate quarterback package might be a welcome adjustment.

Not every part of this game was bad. In the third quarter, the Gophers subbed out Morgan for Eden Prairie product Cole Kramer, who ran for a 19-yard touchdown. Kramer then picked up a 1st down in the fourth quarter in similar fashion.

If this means the Wildcat is gone from Minnesota's offense, and Kramer is a situational quarterback who does essentially the same job as a Wildcat quarterback, that means that the Gophers have responded to at least one of their offensive deficiencies. By taking Morgan off the field for another quarterback rather than lining him up at receiver, Minnesota is theoretically threatening to pass from this look.

We'll compare the two. First, here's how Miami lined up when facing the Wildcat with Potts:

Miami responded to the Wildcat by cramming nine players into the box, all within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage. There was no deep safety, and the slot defender stood well inside of the innermost receiver. This was despite Minnesota's attempt to make Morgan a more credible threat on the outside by stacking him behind two wideouts. The RedHawks had no doubt a run was coming.

But the Falcons had to at least partially respect the possibility of a pass. Here's how they aligned on each of Kramer's runs:

Bowling Green still was ready for a run, answering six linemen and a tight end with five or six players on the line. But the defensive backs had to be in a decent position to defend the pass. The single high safety on the first play was 13 yards back. On the second play, the Falcons were in two-high. (The safety at the 35-yard line in my screenshot was backing into his position at the time of the snap.) Kramer's package created a lot more room in the box than the Wildcat can at this point, considering how obvious Minnesota's intentions in that package had become by now. Moving away from the Wildcat is a positive step.

However, this will only hold true in the long-term if the alternate quarterback package presents a legitimate passing threat. Kramer will need to throw the ball at some point in these spots, or else the Gophers will have in essence given the Wildcat a new paint job. Packed boxes will follow, and the package will become just as self-defeating.

10. I do not know what this team is.

Normally, when I say that in September, I mean it as a word of caution: We've seen too little. Slow down. Don't rush to judge such small samples based on minimal information, especially if that means totally abandoning your priors.

But today, I mean it more existentially: What is this team?

The defense is alright. Probably. The only offenses Minnesota has faced are great (Ohio State, who was held back by a merely good quarterback) or just bad (everyone else). The Gophers looked bad against the one great offense and good against the three bad offenses. Based on what we've seen, we can reasonably say that the defense is at least a lot better than a season ago. We still need to see what happens in Big Ten play before making a more definitive ruling.

The offense has ample skill talent, a veteran quarterback, and depth and size on the line. Those in charge of its direction can't get out of the way. Morgan has in moments looked poised and in others incapable. There's so much reason for this to be a top-25 offense like it has been the last two seasons, and it has often played like one, but it can sputter. It's sometimes efficient and sometimes immobile.

Fleck teams typically don't incur bad penalties. But this season's Gophers have made things harder for themselves by doing just that. If you were to bet on any team to clean that up, it would be one with this much experience and a track record of sound play, but you also wouldn't bet on such an experienced team to need to clean that up.

Meanwhile, the quality of Fleck's game management is regularly lacking. He spends first-half timeouts like they don't matter, he punts from the other side of midfield, he doesn't try to score before halftime, and his offense runs like its head coach is the kind of person who cites time of possession as the first stat he looks at on a stat sheet. Fleck's 4th-down decision-making can feel like spinning a wheel where at least three-quarters of the spaces encourage the conservative option. It's better that the arrow sometimes lands on the aggressive option, and Fleck absolutely deserves credit for going for it in places other coaches would never try. But the impression one gets from watching five seasons of Fleck football is that his staff has never made a 4th-down chart and that he bases his decisions entirely on feel.

Somehow, the specialists feel like one of the most trustworthy parts of the team. Kesich produces touchbacks on nearly every kickoff, Crawford has pinned opponents deep fairly often even while not producing booming punts, and Trickett has enough of a track record to count on him despite his recent misses (which I covered last week). Crawford and Trickett have each botched kicks, however, and Potts demonstrated Saturday why the Gophers almost always fair-catch punts.

I still view a bowl berth as more likely than not for Minnesota. Beyond that, considering their inconsistent play and the deep floor the Gophers have most recently established, it's hard to make any predictions.

Next Game

To win at Purdue this week, Minnesota will probably need to take chances in the passing game. Though that will be difficult against edge rusher George Karlaftis (11.0 sacks in 18 career games) and a veteran secondary that's allowed a 52.5 percent completion rate this season, it's also the most likely way an opponent can move the ball versus the Boilermakers. With garbage time filtered out, Purdue's pass defense ranks 125th in FBS in collegefootballdata.com's explosiveness statistic.

Though the run defense can burst against the run from time to time, the Gophers will have to create light boxes for themselves to open up space for their running backs. Purdue doesn't have an elite front but is unlikely to get pushed around, especially if Minnesota plays the same stodgy style. First-year defensive co-coordinators Ron English and Brad Lambert have overseen a strong start to the season for a unit that's had some significant problems during Jeff Brohm's tenure as head coach.

Brohm's offense, however, has been underwhelming. For all their receiving talent, the Boilermakers have been no better than average at throwing the ball. Aidan O'Connell has twice relieved Jack Plummer midway through games as the offense stagnated, but it's not as if O'Connell has set the world afire. He was certainly the worse quarterback a season ago. There isn't much of a run game to speak of, either — especially not without Zander Horvath (broken fibula) and King Doerue (undisclosed medical condition, unrelated-to-COVID-19).

The Boilermakers had have dealt with plenty of injuries beyond their top two running backs. Most costly are the concussions to their top two pass catchers, tight end Payne Durham and wideout David Bell. Without these two, Purdue posted a season-low 39.5-percent passing success rate against Illinois. A supreme red zone threat, nearly a quarter of Durham's career catches have been touchdowns. Bell, one of the nation's best receivers, caused major problems for Minnesota last year. Each entered the week still subject to concussion protocol.

Even with the injuries and imperfections, though, Purdue presents Rossi's defense its biggest test since the opener. The Gophers have shown they can defend against bad offenses and will be outclassed by elite programs like Ohio State, but we haven't seen them against the teams in the middle, or against any of the teams that burned them in 2020. This game should tell us a lot about where the Minnesota defense's new level is going into the idle week.