When it comes to sports, Minnesotans are skeptics and pessimists. When their teams do well, they only celebrate for so long before reminding everyone around them that their happiness won't last. Why would it? It's never lasted before.
Even as the Gophers led late against one of the nation's best teams, in the program's biggest game in decades, the smallest mistake gave fans ammunition to complain about "Classic Gopher Football."
Usually, they say something slightly different, but it has the same meaning: "Same old Gophers."
The same old Gophers who rose from the destitution of five straight post-Murray Warmath coaching eras to lead Michigan 28-7 after three quarters... and then lost by 3. The same old Gophers who set a new record for blowing a lead in a bowl game. The same old Gophers who led Wisconsin 17-13 at halftime with the division on the line but lost 24-34 — and then threw away a bigger, later lead in Madison two years later.
The same old Gophers who could never change. Who could never become relevant, and if they did, they'd surely blow it when the first real test came.
I admit that I don't have as long a memory of Minnesota's football failures as others do. One of my first memories of college football was watching the 2006 Insight Bowl — rooting for Texas Tech, the team that ended Glen Mason's tenure as head coach. I hardly paid attention to the Big Ten, or the Gophers, until my senior year of high school, when I applied to the U of M. But I care more about them than I have any sports team in my life.
By the end of my first fall on campus, I'd learned to hate Iowa. I'd learned the words to "The Minnesota Rouser" by my second game and those to "Hail Minnesota" by the regular season-ending loss to Wisconsin. I turned 19 the night of Matt Limegrover and Tracy Claeys' goal line disaster, giving me a proper introduction to the same old Gophers.
I watched my school's most visible representatives exhibit bewildering ignorance and have their leader fired, capping a season already marked by indifference and disgruntlement.
I watched a quarterback competition between Demry Croft and Conor Rhoda, the winner of which was only the Gophers' opponents. I shouted on defensive snaps well into the fourth quarter of a game that was over shortly after kickoff, en route to the most miserable sports moment of my life, the program's 14th straight loss to Wisconsin.
I rode 8 hours in a car into central Illinois to watch my team allow allow 646 yards to a team that lost 63-0 two weeks later and finished the season 4-8. That was the Gophers' fifth loss in six games. When my last home game as a student ended in numbing defeat, it looked like I'd graduate before the next Minnesota bowl game.
But a week later, I was in Camp Randall Stadium. Four days later, I held Paul Bunyan's Axe in Coffman Memorial Union. I ran my fingers across where it now reads "MINN37-15WISC."
The run kept going. The Gophers won their bowl game in Detroit and the first eight of the next season. Suddenly, they were one of the biggest stories in college football.
And when they took the stage on Saturday, the same old Gophers were gone.
Everyone in the stadium will have their own story of when they saw the Gophers' specter of futility finally defeated. Mine is relatively brief.
I could hardly make any noise as the Nittany Lions entered the red zone on their final drive of the game. The moment was too stressful. I needed to sit down and take a breath. But I couldn't. I had a job to do. So I kept yelling.
On 3rd-and-24, I said to someone — ostensibly the defense, but really my friend and podcasting partner Aaron, who could actually hear me from a foot away — "Keep everything in front of you." The Nittany Lions, I thought, would be conservative and try to set up a 4th-and-short.
Instead, Sean Clifford tried to hit K.J. Hamler in the end zone. He missed.
I remember staring ahead, not immediately recognizing what happened. In retrospect, it feels like a much longer moment than it actually was. An Illinois blogger recently called a similar moment for him "The Moment Of Not Knowing." That's an apt way of putting it.
I heard the roar. I felt the frenzy in my section. The moment ended, and the Gophers had won. But I still could not yell. I could not even form a complete sentence. I joined my friends in a disorganized group hug, accidentally putting an arm into one of their throats, and then I broke down. The suddenness of my catharsis was too tremendous, I suppose. I'd never cried of happiness before. I don't think I'd ever cried drier, either.
I was late to the field, coming down the stairs from the upper deck, so my "storming" was more of a delayed meandering. But the line to the bottom of the stands gave me a view of something beautiful.
Minnesota is 9-0. Big Ten Championship and Rose Bowl appearances are both not only on the table, but perhaps the most likely outcome. P.J. Fleck is all but guaranteed by his enormous new buyout to stay another two seasons, and he is under contract for the five seasons after that. The roster is still young and could actually get better in coming seasons.
The Gophers of old are gone. The Gophers of today have reached the big time.
2. Rashod Bateman played the best game of his college career.
Bateman's seven-catch, 203-yard performance against Penn State was only the second 200-yard receiving game in school history. (The first: Ryan Thelwell's 228-yard game against Ball State in 1996.) The true sophomore put on a clinic in getting open and picking up yards after the catch.
Close observers knew how good Bateman was, but this was his national coming-out party. Bateman is averaging 22.3 yards per catch, trailing just five players for the FBS lead. His 13.9 yards per target is the most on the team. He and Tyler Johnson make up arguably the country's best receiving tandem, forcing opposing defenses to make an impossible decision: whom should you double-cover, and whom should you leave alone? It's a big reason why the Gophers' passing attack is so prolific.
3. Tanner Morgan played a mistake-free game.
Morgan may not ever top his 21-for-22, 396-yard day against Purdue, but he sure came close.
Against a much better defense than the Boilermakers', Morgan was 18-for-20 for 339 yards, three touchdowns, and one sack on Saturday. He was virtually untouchable in the pocket because he so repeatedly got the ball out in time.
The few times Morgan didn't throw immediately, he kept his head and found an open receiver before the pass rush reached him.
He perfectly weighted his throws and squeezed the ball into tough windows.
He even picked up a 1st down by scrambling to begin the second quarter.
Kirk Ciarrocca's offense, with all its slants and quick throws, does not often require much of the quarterback the way a pro-style system does. It does, however, require the intelligence to read the defense, a fast release, and the accuracy and arm strength to make the occasional deep throw. Morgan displayed all of those qualities in his team's biggest game to date.
4. Penn State found holes in the Minnesota defense.
The big question entering this game was whether each secondary would hold up against a top passing offense. Neither really did. In addition to the Nittany Lions allowing 18.3 yards per completion to Morgan, the Gophers allowed 14.8 yards per completion to Clifford (despite Clifford's own struggles, which I discuss below).
The Gopher defenders bit on play-action, giving the Nittany Lions plenty of space in the middle of the field.
Tight end Pat Freiermuth was open several times. Though Clifford missed him on multiple occasions, Freiermuth still finished the game with 101 yards on seven receptions.
Drops, inconsistent quarterback play, and red zone turnovers kept Penn State from finishing the day with much better stats, as Minnesota presented plenty of opportunities to gain more yards and score more points. Joe Rossi's defense only barely passed its biggest test of the season. Fortunately for the Gophers, no offense left on the schedule offers the kind of aerial firepower that the Nittany Lions do.
5. Clifford's inaccuracy held back the Nittany Lions.
As I covered in my preview piece, Clifford completed 52 percent of his passes across his four previous worst games this season. On Saturday, he completed 53 percent. Drops have been a problem for Penn State's receivers at points, and they showed up again on Saturday, but Clifford did himself no favors. He bounced throws to open receivers downfield:
He threw behind and over his receivers:
He even missed the easy throws:
It was a dreadful day for a quarterback who has looked like one of the country's best. Even if his receivers had caught a couple of passes that they dropped, Clifford would have only done just enough for his team to win.
6. Despite its problems, the Minnesota secondary made huge plays.
When the opposing quarterback is missing his throws, there are few better players to have in the defensive backfield than Antoine Winfield Jr. Twice in the first half, Winfield took advantage of off-line passes and made crucial interceptions within his own 10-yard line. The Gophers scored off of each ensuing possession.
 |
| Mariano Sori-Marin also deserves credit for plowing through Ricky Slade to disrupt Clifford's throw, and Rossi deserves credit for calling this blitz. (The officials probably deserve credit for not calling pass interference, too.) |
When the Nittany Lions started to come back, their red zone strategy included throwing goal line fades to the 5-foot 9-inch Hamler. This was highly unlikely to work. Chris Williamson swatted away Clifford's throw on 4th-and-goal, keeping the Gophers' lead at 12 points. Benjamin St-Juste's pass breakup mattered less after a Journey Brown touchdown followed it, but he kept Hamler from scoring.
Then, with Penn State at the doorstep of the end zone again at the end of the game, Howden made the biggest interception of Minnesota's season.
Were the Gophers lucky that Clifford was so inconsistent, and that Ricky Rahne called bad plays in the red zone? Sure. But they still had to make plays on the ball, and they did. If they hadn't, they wouldn't still be undefeated.
7. This space is reserved for absurd catches by Gophers receivers.
There are at least four games left in Johnson's Minnesota career. He already has cemented his status as one of the three greatest receivers in school history.
With this one-handed catch, Johnson is now three receiving touchdowns behind Ron Johnson for the program's career record. At the end of the season, he should only trail Eric Decker for the program record for all-time receiving yards. He is third behind both of them in career receptions.
A whole lotta #Gophers stats in this pic. But even more respect. Best 3 to ever do it on Maroon & Gold soil...— Ron Johnson (@3RonJohnson) November 9, 2019
Rashod Bateman is up NEXT!!!#SkiUMah #RowTheBoat #GoGophers#EricDecker #TylerJohnson pic.twitter.com/Vm8RjIMcKX
8. Ciarrocca abandoned the pass in the fourth quarter. It nearly cost the Gophers a win.
The Minnesota offensive coordinator's first half game plan was masterful. He found the holes in Penn State's secondary, and his team went into halftime averaging 10.0 yards per play. Calls like this tunnel screen turned out perfectly (thanks in large part to great execution):
Attacking through the air gave the Gophers the lead. Facing another great offense on the other side, they should have stayed in the air until victory was assured. Ciarrocca shut down the passing game before then, however.
The Nittany Lions' greatest strength defensively is their ability to stop the run. They allowed 3.2 yards per carry through their first eight games. They ranked in the top five of a variety of advanced metrics. (The numbers on the linked page have since been updated since Saturday, but their stats remain elite.) The Penn State front seven is as good as any in the country.
As a result, the Gophers had their second-worst rushing day of the season. Only the Georgia Southern game was worse by yards per carry, Line Yards per Carry, Stuff Rate, and Opportunity Rate.
The Gophers' rushing attack did not start the game poorly. Aided by increased use of an unbalanced line, Minnesota ran for 81 yards on 18 carries. The offense had some success running outside zone.
After halftime, however, the Nittany Lions shut down the run. The Gophers gained 52 yards on 19 carries, averaging nearly 1.8 fewer yards per carry. Even with favorable box counts, they couldn't run the ball.
Ciarrocca was undeterred. Rather than try to put the game out of reach, Minnesota tried to play keep-away. The Gophers ran the ball on 70 percent of their plays in the second half, including on eight of 11 1st downs.
The strategy became predictable. By Minnesota's last two drives, Penn State was loading the box:
The Gophers killed 4:21 in the drive that started with the above play. The Nittany Lions drove 63 yards in 2:28 and made it a one-possession game again. On the following drive, Rodney Smith lost a yard, and when Ciarrocca returned to the passing game on 2nd down, Micah Parsons and the Nittany Lions overwhelmed Morgan, sacking him for a 10-yard loss. Smith's 3rd down run could only regain the yards lost on the sack, and Penn State got the ball back with 2:40 left.
Especially against a superior team, Ciarrocca should have gone for the jugular. Morgan, Bateman, and Johnson were excellent all afternoon, and another score — even a field goal — would have given the Gophers more security. The strategy of draining the clock on the ground can only work if the offense can gain yards on the ground. Minnesota's offense couldn't do that, and that's why Penn State almost won the game.
9. Winfield keeps playing the hero of Minnesota's defense.
In addition to his two interceptions Saturday, which moved him into second place on the national leaderboard, Winfield made 10.0 tackles (9 solo, 2 assisted). He has 49.5 tackles this season; Howden is the only other Gopher with at least 35.0. James Franklin professed that he has "a huge man crush" on Winfield last week.
Though Winfield is classified as a sophomore, this is his fourth year in the program. With the season he's having, it's conceivable that he never sees a fifth.
Antoine Winfield Jr. is the highest graded safety in college football with a 91.2 overall grade https://t.co/vvVg5IoHpD— PFF MIN Vikings (@PFF_Vikings) November 10, 2019
Until Winfield does leave for the NFL, whenever that may be, the Gophers will have one of the nation's top defensive backs.
10. The Gophers' grip on the Big Ten West race tightens.
This win for Minnesota, combined with Iowa's loss in Madison, all but eliminates the Hawkeyes from division title contention, and it erases any room for error Wisconsin had left. Another slip-up like the Badgers had against Illinois, and the Gophers could fail to win the division only by losing out.
Assuming they don't slip up again, however, the Gophers can clinch the division with any two wins. Here's how the computers view the Gophers' chances of getting those two wins.
Though few things in college football are a lock, Minnesota is heavily favored at Northwestern next Saturday. This week's trip to Kinnick Stadium looks like a toss-up. So does the Battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe on Nov. 30, but that one becomes more important if Iowa keeps the Floyd of Rosedale: The Gophers can lose twice and still go to Indianapolis, but one of those loses cannot be to the Badgers.
Per FPI, the least optimistic of the three above systems with listed win probabilities for all three games, Minnesota has a 67.4 percent chance of winning any two games on the remaining schedule. The division is Minnesota's to lose.
Next Game
Iowa is currently fourth in the Big Ten West at 3-3 in conference play, but it's not like the Hawkeyes have been embarrassed. Their three losses — at Michigan, versus Penn State, and at Wisconsin — were by a combined 14 points. This is still a good team, and it defends a stadium Minnesota hasn't won in since 1999.
Offensively, tackles Tristan Wirfs and Alaric Jackson are the stars. Wirfs is a projected first round pick next April, and a team might draft Jackson soon after Wirfs is picked. (This assumes both forgo their senior seasons.) The interior of the line is less experienced, however, which is how this unit has merely average run blocking statistics: in Line Yards per Carry, Power Success Rate, Opportunity Rate, and Stuff Rate, the Iowa blockers rank between 50th and 65th. This is not one of Kirk Ferentz's best lines.
Quarterback Nate Stanley is a senior with occasional flareups of inaccuracy, but his arm strength and acceptable floor have kept him an adequate passer his whole career (and made him an NFL Draft prospect). Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Brandon Smtih, and Nico Ragaini are Stanley's favorite targets now that Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson are gone; Iowa has gotten very little production from the tight end position this season. Smith-Marsette, at 14.8 yards per catch, is the offense's most dangerous skill player.
The defense's greatest strength is also on the outsides of the tackle box. A.J. Epenesa's measly 4.5 sacks this season hide the fact that he is a monster at defensive end. He and Chauncey Golston will pose serious problems for Sam Schlueter and Daniel Faalele.
The Iowa secondary has faced few difficult opponents but ranks 10th in yards per passing attempt allowed this season. The middle of the defense, however, has been surprisingly soft. In the same statistics I listed above for the rushing offense, the Iowa rushing defense ranks between 78th and 126th.
This is where a balanced offensive attack comes in handy. Penn State effectively contained Minnesota's running backs but were gashed by the Gophers' receivers. If the Hawkeyes take away the pass, the Gophers should be able to run. It would likely make for a classically dull Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale, but it should be the kind of battle the Gophers can win, assuming they can overcome the power of a Kinnick Stadium blackout. And that's always easier said than done.
Offensively, tackles Tristan Wirfs and Alaric Jackson are the stars. Wirfs is a projected first round pick next April, and a team might draft Jackson soon after Wirfs is picked. (This assumes both forgo their senior seasons.) The interior of the line is less experienced, however, which is how this unit has merely average run blocking statistics: in Line Yards per Carry, Power Success Rate, Opportunity Rate, and Stuff Rate, the Iowa blockers rank between 50th and 65th. This is not one of Kirk Ferentz's best lines.
Quarterback Nate Stanley is a senior with occasional flareups of inaccuracy, but his arm strength and acceptable floor have kept him an adequate passer his whole career (and made him an NFL Draft prospect). Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Brandon Smtih, and Nico Ragaini are Stanley's favorite targets now that Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson are gone; Iowa has gotten very little production from the tight end position this season. Smith-Marsette, at 14.8 yards per catch, is the offense's most dangerous skill player.
The defense's greatest strength is also on the outsides of the tackle box. A.J. Epenesa's measly 4.5 sacks this season hide the fact that he is a monster at defensive end. He and Chauncey Golston will pose serious problems for Sam Schlueter and Daniel Faalele.
The Iowa secondary has faced few difficult opponents but ranks 10th in yards per passing attempt allowed this season. The middle of the defense, however, has been surprisingly soft. In the same statistics I listed above for the rushing offense, the Iowa rushing defense ranks between 78th and 126th.
This is where a balanced offensive attack comes in handy. Penn State effectively contained Minnesota's running backs but were gashed by the Gophers' receivers. If the Hawkeyes take away the pass, the Gophers should be able to run. It would likely make for a classically dull Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale, but it should be the kind of battle the Gophers can win, assuming they can overcome the power of a Kinnick Stadium blackout. And that's always easier said than done.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.