Midweek Review: Minnesota 30-0 Colorado

There was a party in Boulder on Saturday, though its thousands of participants weren't the hosts. Legions of Minnesota fans traveled to see their team win handily against a Power Five opponent, packing Folsom Field with maroon and gold and making plenty of noise. It was nearly end-to-end domination, even with some small imperfections in the Gophers' performance. They look on track to make a bowl or maybe finish as high as 2nd in the Big Ten West.

1. Joe Rossi's defense delivered a historically suffocating performance.

After disastrous bursts against Ohio State and a mixed day against Miami (OH), it was fair to question where the Gophers' defense was going. Rossi stabilized this unit when he replaced Robb Smith as defensive coordinator in 2018, and he fielded a strong group the following year, but last season, the bottom fell out. Though there were signs late in 2020 that his inexperienced players were settling in, Rossi needed them to put forth a complete performance facing a limited Colorado offense.

The defense delivered just that, and then some. Saturday's game was the first Minnesota shutout since 2006, the first shutout of a power-conference opponent since 2004, and the first road shutout of a power-conference opponent since 1977.

By my searching, the Gophers allowed their fewest non-sack rushing yards (12) since 1998. Before then, game-by-game stats are less complete. However, I could find no other game from 1979 onward (when the school's web-based box scores are available) in which Minnesota allowed negative unadjusted rushing yards. The closest any opponent came was Michigan State's 3 yards in 2006. It's possible this was the lowest unadjusted rushing total the Gophers have allowed since Michigan netted -46 yards in 1962.

Colorado's 63 net yards of offense is also the lowest total of any Gophers opponent since at least 1979. The next-closest team was 1983 Northwestern, who put up 118 yards yet beat Minnesota 18-22 in a chaotic game. (The Wildcats recovered eight of 13 total fumbles.) Saturday's performance is also just 15 yards off the program record of 48 yards allowed, recorded against Navy in 1962.

And that total yards figure was not entirely the result of the Gophers' offense hogging the ball (which it did). The Buffaloes averaged 1.4 yards per play; at that pace, they would have needed another 26 plays to cross 100 total yards for the game. If the Buffs had run 80 plays, which is what some of the highest-paced teams in the country average per game in a typical year, they would have totaled just 112 yards. Sure, the Gophers would have allowed more yards if they had faced more plays, but it's not like that's the only reason they kept their opponents' numbers so low.

Surely no one is asking whether this game means Minnesota has a top defense now, considering the flaws it showed in earlier games. But the fact the Gophers put forth, without hyperbole, their best statistical performance in decades should be cause to recalibrate our stance on this unit. While it's not so strong that it won't get burned against the right team, Rossi has a defense that can keep weaker opposition at arm's length. That represents a major step up from last year and, if it holds, will likely be worth an extra win or two by season's end.

2. By every statistical standard, Minnesota's run defense held up.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
Line Yards and Success Rate are via
collegefootballdata.com.

When the other team averages less than a yard per non-sack rushing attempt, you've done a lot of things right. Minnesota stopped six runs behind the line of scrimmage, which is as many as they did in 13 more opportunities in the Miami game. Just three Colorado runs gained 4 or more yards. The longest run the slashing Jarek Broussard could muster was for 8 yards.

The defensive line was solid across the board. Nyles Pinckney, Esezi Otomewo, and M.J. Anderson all finished without registering a tackle but played disciplined, occasionally disruptive games. I was skeptical of Val Martin in the preseason, but I was impressed by how often he penetrated the backfield. He made 1.0 tackle for loss. All were important to Saturday's effort.

The most impressive players on Minnesota's defense might have been the starting linebacker pair of Jack Gibbens and Mariano Sori-Marin. Both were decisive and aggressively met the run, finishing with a combined 9.5 tackles (9 solo, 1 assisted) and 3.0 tackles for loss. Gibbens made one of the best plays of the day, taking responsibility of the edge on a quarterback draw to force the run inside, then diving in to force a fumble.

Setting aside the broader historical context of this performance: A game like the Gophers had against CU's run game, after a year where their best showings could only generously be called passable, is incredibly encouraging. That couldn't have happened in 2020.

3. Brendon Lewis couldn't make a dent.

While Lewis' 8-for-16 line as a passer wasn't too surprising, given the redshirt freshman's underwhelming first couple of games this season, Minnesota covered well. The Gophers' cornerbacks broke up four passes, defenders tackled the Buffs' receivers soon after catches, and frequently, Lewis had no options downfield. The intermediate-to-deep passing game never found a rhythm. The Gophers closed in on the short throws before they turned into anything.

What was a surprise was how ineffective Lewis was when nothing was open for him and he had to take off. Running has been Lewis' biggest strength: He averaged 9.6 yards per carry before facing the Gophers. But on Saturday, he had three non-sack carries for 4 yards and was sacked four times. Minnesota's use of a spy on passing downs ensured that Lewis couldn't break into the open field.

The spy didn't make this tackle, but he was in the exact
right spot to do so.

Mobile quarterbacks gashed the Gophers last season. They still might later in 2021 — Taulia Tagovailoa comes to Minneapolis October 23 — but passing this test so resoundingly should earn them a little more trust in these situations.

4. Finally, the Gophers' pass rush broke through.

Minnesota's first four sacks of the season came in part because Rossi dropped eight defenders on passing downs against a below-average passer. But the Gophers were also in the backfield a lot in general, totaling 12 pressures on 30 dropbacks (per Pro Football Focus). Against a flawed offensive line, Minnesota's pass rush looked sharp and bedeviled the Buffs on some pretty simple twists. Both of Thomas Rush's sacks came that way.

Rush's strong start to the season has come at the expense of Boye Mafe, who looked like the star of this defense but has received fewer snaps and didn't start on Saturday. Still, Mafe got home to Lewis a couple of times and has looked better against the run since a disappointing showing against Ohio State. He's arguably the team's best athlete and still one of the defense's most important players. His performance against Colorado could foreshadow more strong play going forward.

5. From start to finish, Minnesota's rushing attack was excellent.

Last week, offensive co-coordinators Mike Sanford Jr. and Matt Simon answered diminishing returns with their heavy O-lines by sticking to 11 personnel for most of the second half. The packed boxes disappeared, and Trey Potts finished off the game.

That late-game adjustment traveled with the Gophers to Boulder — partly. They used a seven-man line on just four snaps versus the Buffaloes, and Minnesota used 10 personnel (one running back, zero tight ends) on 10 snaps. But six-lineman sets still appeared on almost a third of their plays. And the Buffs often countered by bringing more players toward the line of scrimmage.

It just didn't matter though. The Gophers got great push up front and used formations to open up space for their run game. Potts' first touchdown was from what was essentially quads to the field side (if we treat the extra lineman as a receiver for a moment), which cleared out the short side for a counter run. (The geometry was a bit like how Ohio State scored first in Week 1.) Curtis Dunlap Jr. kicked out the edge defender, and Ko Kieft pancaked the only Buffalo defender who could have made the play.

Minnesota got a lot done by running to the outside. According to PFF, runs to the left C and D gaps averaged 10.3 yards per carry and included half of the Gophers' eight runs of 10-plus yards.

They were still effective attacking other areas, however. Their final numbers from the game demonstrate how much of an all-around beating the Gophers delivered.

Colorado probably has a good run defense, but the Buffs' only relative success might have been preventing Minnesota's big runs from becoming huge ones. Otherwise, they were dominated at the line of scrimmage and didn't throw the Gophers off-schedule. Minnesota played a game of manball and won handily.

6. The Gophers' running back room is in great shape beyond 2021.

Though Potts finished with 121 yards and three touchdowns, the Gopher who might have made the strongest impression Saturday was true freshman Mar'Keise Irving. He had only fielded kickoffs this season, having made a 41-yard return last week, but for the Colorado game, Irving took snaps as Minnesota's No. 2 running back and ended up with 92 yards on 16 touches. Throughout the game, Irving bounced off of Buffaloes and made space for himself. He broke off three runs of 15 or more yards.

Then there was the debut of Ky Thomas, a well-regarded 2020 signee who, as I wrote at the end of July, looks a lot like P.J. Fleck's style of running back. Thomas nearly took his first college carry to the house, finding and then quickly hitting the hole on a wide zone run before tripping himself up after a 24-yard gain. He did score a few plays later, however.

I've said before that Minnesota has plenty of depth at running back, but I don't know if I've emphasized enough how much a position of strength it is long-term. With Potts, Irving, and Thomas, the Gophers will have both tremendous potential and the security of distributing carries between multiple talented backs. All three are underclassmen, and all three could be highly talented.

7. In a limited sample, Minnesota opened up the passing game.

Before the game, I said Minnesota needed to throw the ball more than 17 times to beat Colorado. How many passes did Morgan attempt in the big win over the Buffs, then?

Ah, well.

Like last week, Morgan didn't attempt a pass in the fourth quarter against the Buffs. This time, though, it was less about conservative philosophy than it was Morgan just no longer being needed after putting in a good performance. He was smart with the ball, showed a cool head in the pocket (which the line kept clean most of the day), and consistently delivered the ball on time and on target.

He also had to make tougher throws than he did going into Saturday. Morgan attempted five throws of at least 20 yards (compared to three across the first two games) and posted his highest average depth of target so far this year (14.4 yards). Colorado's defense gave up a lot of big plays last season, and Sanford and Simon tried to capitalize by attacking that weakness instead of totally trusting the run game to get the job done. Minnesota will need to maintain that aggressive approach in future games.

8. Chris Autman-Bell immediately made an impact in his return.

Morgan's deep passes didn't all work out, but counting a third-quarter pass interference call that negated a sixth attempt, they netted 80 yards. All of that yardage came on passes to Autman-Bell, the fifth-year senior whose presence was greatly missed in the first two games after a preseason injury. Though his first catch of the season was behind the line of scrimmage, three of Autman-Bell's six targets (plus that interference call) were on deep passes.

While Autman-Bell's catch in the second quarter was more impressive, I didn't
want to highlight the play where CU's Chris Miller was injured in coverage.

Now that they have their most experienced wideout back in the lineup — not to mention Dylan Wright, who had one catch for 39 yards after his injury scare versus Miami — the Gophers have one of the Big Ten's best passing attacks. With his skill both on both quick throws near the line of scrimmage and on jump balls well beyond it, Autman-Bell gives them a playmaker at all levels of the field.

9. Minnesota could have gone up three possessions before halftime if not for bad coaching. Unless it was bad officiating. Maybe it was both.

With 19 seconds left in the first half, the Gophers were flagged for having ineligible players downfield on a pass beyond the line of scrimmage. Rather than starting at the snap, the clock resumed when the ball was set for play in Colorado territory. However, Morgan evidently didn't know that. He took his time at the line, checked with the sideline, gave his call to the offensive line, and finally called for a snap that came after time ran out on the quarter. (The play did count.)

As the half ended, Fleck remonstrated with the officials about the clock resuming. He said after the fact that he was told the clock would be stopped. The NCAA rulebook is unclear about how the officials should have handled this specific situation (at least to me, someone who has never refereed and doesn't know the book back-to-front), but the Pac-12 Network broadcast said that CU had the option to start the clock when the ball was set. If both Fleck's account and the broadcast's interpretation are correct, then the officials erred by not explaining the situation correctly to the Gophers.

Regardless, someone on the Minnesota sideline should have noticed that the clock was running. It was certainly running long enough for someone to have done so, to have told Fleck (assuming he didn't notice it himself), and to have made sure the clock stopped. If that meant using the Gophers' last timeout of the half, so be it. A 13-point lead is not so secure that this is a minor mistake in most games. You cannot throw away probably four plays because nobody was paying attention.

10. Do not panic over Matthew Trickett's performance.

In three seasons at Kent State, Trickett was one of the best kickers in the MAC, twice earning first team all-conference honors and winning Special Teams Player of the Year in 2019. Counting extra points, he failed to convert just four attempts that were shorter than 40 yards. And in his first two games in Minneapolis, Trickett hit a pair of long kicks (including his first career 50-yarder) and didn't miss an extra point. He is a good kicker. Not a passable one, not a decent one, but a legitimately good one whose transfer to Minnesota secures a position a position of need.

Good players at any position can have bad games, and this was one for Trickett. Missing from 46 yards out is forgivable; doing so from 24 yards, and then on an extra point, is poor. He did not do his job at the level needed.

But it is important to not overreact to short-term failures. Fleck said after the game he will continue to trust Trickett, which he did in the fourth quarter from the 16-yard line. On an easy opportunity for an FBS kicker, Trickett connected. He'll do so more over the course of a full season.

Next Game

There is no nice way to put it: Bowling Green is terrible. Minnesota will win, and win by a lot. The degree of the Gophers' success should be determined based on how soon their starters exit, how many injuries they sustain, and whether they cover the lofty 31-point spread.

Undersized underclassmen are all over the offensive two-deep; the six linemen who have started this year average 284 pounds. Quarterback Matt McDonald's 2020 season was full of low-percentage deep chucks to try and keep the Falcons in games. McDonald's completion percentage is almost 30 points higher than it was a year ago, but only because he isn't going deep as much. And he's still getting sacked anyway.

The floor is higher on defense, which is the result of both continuity and the departure of coordinator Brian VanGorder. Kansas transfer Davon Ferguson is BGSU's most disruptive player, having made 3.5 TFLs and four pass breakups. The Falcons still burst from time to time, however, and they don't have much up front. This side of the line is also undersized and unreliable, having allowed a 60.7 percent Success Rate against Tennessee's rushing attack. Physical mismatches alone are enough for the Gophers to do whatever they want offensively. This will be swift and devoid of tension.