2022 Gophers Position Previews: Defensive Line

The sixth season of the P.J. Fleck era at Minnesota begins Sept. 1 against Jerry Kill's New Mexico State. Ski-U-Blog will have previews of the Gophers' notable players in each position group. We now move to the defense, starting with a deep but somewhat unproven front four.

Likely Starters

In a case of nominative determinism, Minnesota's starting rush end will be none other than Thomas Rush. Rush had a solid season last year, becoming one of the defense's most productive players: 25.0 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss (5.0 sacks), and a couple pass breakups. Always a competent run defender and capable of dropping into coverage every once in a while, Rush finally made an impact in the backfield.

As with any surprise success, it's fair to ask whether Rush is due for some regression in 2021. Using Pro Football Focus' numbers, we can see that the average FBS edge rusher last year recorded a pressure on roughly 9 percent of all pass rush snaps, and on 14 percent of snaps against what PFF calls a true pass set. Here is where Rush placed among the 458 edge rushers who had at least 80 pass rush snaps last year, with Boye Mafe and Esezi Otomewo included for comparison:

Click to enlarge.

As you can see, a look at his pressure rate confirms that Rush was decent at rushing the passer last year. He was just outside the top quarter of FBS in that statistic, whether we're talking about all pass rush snaps or just against true pass sets. Mafe was near the top of the nation, and Otomewo — who had a more run-conscious role as the 5-technique defensive end — was closer to the middle.

I've also included another stat up there: sacks per pressure, expressed as a rate. The reason is that sacks per pressure can work a bit like baseball's batting average on balls in play. Just as getting an abnormally high number of balls to land for hits is not sustainable, so is turning abnormally more pressures into sacks. Pressures and hits are more predictive stats than sacks. If you generate a lot of pressures, you're a good pass rusher, and that will lead to sacks. But if you generate a lot of sacks off only a few pressures, there's reason to be skeptical you'll keep it up.

In Rush's case, it's not that he's not generating a significant amount of pressure. It's just he's probably not going to bring down as many quarterbacks as he did in 2021, barring another step forward as a rusher. Using an average sack-per-pressure rate and Rush's pressure rate from last season, he'd need something like 300 pass rush snaps to just get 5.0 sacks. Last year, he recorded 5.5 sacks in 185 pass rush snaps.

(Of note: PFF's data for some reason do not make a distinction between solo and assisted sacks. The presumed reason is that this way reflects the number of times a pressure ended in a hand in a sack, which makes some sense. If I was calculating Rush's sack per pressure rate counting assists as half-sacks, the number would be expressed with a lower number. So would every other edge rusher's, though, and so would the national average.) 

Rush has already proved he can improve this part of this game, though. Even if he doesn't do that again, he should make some plays as a pass rusher, and the Gophers may be able to find sacks to complement him elsewhere.

Jalen Logan-Redding will seemingly start opposite Rush after receiving a smattering of playing time each of the last two seasons. He made his college debut against Purdue two years ago and has gotten snaps here and there since then. He never looked lost against the Badgers last November, but we haven't gotten a tremendous idea of the kind of player he'll be; the only stat he has recorded was a pass breakup against Bowling Green.

Here are some things we can sort of take away from his film, between actual competition and the 2022 spring game: Logan-Redding moves quickly enough to potentially be a trouble for less polished offensive linemen, and he in moments showed good closing speed. That probably needs to be paired with better pass rush moves. Logan-Redding didn't win a lot of battles against Martes Lewis in the spring game, and the time he spent in the Wisconsin backfield usually came after being left unblocked.

He doesn't overwhelm blockers with his power, but Logan-Redding seemingly has enough power for his position to not get bowled over. Weighing 275 pounds, he certainly has enough size. He's eager to get his hands up when in a quarterback's face; that one batted ball shouldn't be a one-time occurrence. It's hard to find glaring mental errors or plays reflecting an especially high football IQ.

Based on what we can piece together, Logan-Redding might be a capable player. We'll see what he can do with a more prominent role in the defense

Trill Carter, now a redshirt junior, is a lock to start at tackle. Carter has lined up over an A gap on just 14.4 percent of his college snaps, which means he's been more of a 3-technique. Nyles Pinckney and especially Micah Dew-Treadway spent more time at nose plugging holes, allowing Carter to play the role of disruptor.

Carter's total of 7.0 havoc plays was greater than that of Pinckney and Dew-Treadway combined, and good for 7th-most on the team. He hasn't shown he can be elite but has been an effective player so far. It's not out of the question that he finds another level this year.

The Many Tackles

With last year's two veteran, run-first tackles gone, either Carter or one of the other players at the position must be able to fill their hole. It's hard to sort out who might be next to Carter most often, as the answer to that question might not be far off from "everyone." P.J. Fleck has promised a large rotation all over the defensive line, and the tackle spots will see the bulk of that.

Because there are so many tackles that it's hard to discern who will play most often (other than Carter), it's necessary to diverge from our usual preview format. Here are the players who could factor into things, sorted roughly from most likely to least likely to get significant playing time. I discuss potential roles here, but it's worth noting that a year ago, the Gophers weren't totally tied to 1-versus-3-technique designations. Some players will be more favored than others for a given role, but expect them all to bounce around a bit.

Shakopee's Deven Eastern is one of the most imposing figures on the Gophers' defense, standing 6 feet 6 inches and weighing 290 pounds. He redshirted last season but will get his first stab at justifying his lofty prospect rating, with the benefit of a large rotation to relieve some pressure.

Eastern's spring game performance, at the very least, displayed effort. He churned his feet and kept his hands active when engaged with a blocker, and once free, he pursued the ballcarrier at full speed. (Eastern's full speed, meanwhile, is pretty good for someone at his position.) Aside from a few moments, he kept a good pad level throughout the game. He was strong enough to hold his gap and to not get bullied by a double team. These are all positives. Eastern has room to improve — most of his best moments were against backups — but he looks ready to contribute.

Kyler Baugh played at Houston Baptist before coming to Minnesota and has two years of eligibility remaining. Quality video of his 2021 season is scarce. There's enough, though, to see a bit how he was used for the Huskies. Baugh played all three positions in a three-man line and, in the games I could find, had a couple moments of explosiveness. PFF credited him with five pressures against Prairie View A&M.

He's a little faster than a lot of defensive tackles, even at 295 pounds, which should make him an asset in the pass rush and against teams that put the ball on the perimeter a lot. Because there's so little useful recent video on him, it's hard to judge his ability to occupy gaps, but PFF graded him well as a run defender, and HBU did trust him to play plenty of nose.

Gage Keys, weighing 280 pounds officially, will probably be relied upon to pressure the quarterback from inside while someone bigger occupies space alongside him. His leaner frame means he should be able to beat heavier offensive linemen at the snap and cut through holes, as shown here:

That same frame may work as a disadvantage from time to time. Keys did not routinely get moved off the ball in the spring game but did sometimes. He showed a willingness to fight through it (and succeeded on a few occasions) but still needs to prove it won't be a habitual problem.

At 325 pounds, Perham native Logan Richter looks as much like a lane-clogging nose guard as any Gopher. That said, the spring game suggests he won't stick so strictly to that spot; he rotated there with other players and moved better than you might expect from a guy his size.

Jacob Schuster received some talking up last season but did not get into a game. He looks to be among the tackles that will play a significant amount of nose, though as discussed, those designations may not be hard and fast. He showed more mobility than expected for such a player in the spring game: At one point, Schuster chased down a ballcarrier for a loss; at another, he was featured as the lone tackle in one of Joe Rossi's 3rd-and-long packages, where three ends lined up with him. Schuster looped around the offensive tackle on a twist and could have made the sack if he'd noticed the quarterback leaving the pocket:

Providing further depth is Darnell Jefferies, a graduate transfer from Clemson. Unlike Nyles Pinckney before him, Jefferies was never a regular for the Tigers. He only entered at the ends of blowouts — which for a more mortal Clemson in 2021 were not that frequent. Jefferies played 24 mostly anonymous snaps last year, recording one assisted tackle. His most prominent appearance was against South Carolina State. We don't learn much from seeing him beat MEAC blockers, though, so the most informative tape is from prior seasons and from the spring game.

Jefferies will probably split time between nose and 3-technique, if his usage at Clemson is any indication. He grades as an acceptable run defender but will not routinely hold up a double team. He is not swift but can execute a twist if asked. His lone pass rush move (not that it's vital a tackle has more) is a bull rush that sometimes works okay, though he's only made half a sack as a college player.

The Gophers probably will not go eight deep at defensive tackle, which means someone will have to sit. That someone could be Luther McCoy, a 305-pound redshirt freshman. In the spring game, he lined up at 3-technique more often when Schuster was also on the field, and he lined up at nose more often when Keys was next to him.

Key Backups (at End)

Logan-Redding's apparent ascendance means Jah Joyner will at least start the year in a part-time role at 5-technique. Joyner's signing was the bigger headline of the two in 2020. While his composite rating was 3 stars, 247Sports gave Joyner a 4-star rating, which made his Signing Day flip from Boston College a significant story. His all-around athleticism, his strongest trait, has made him an intriguing prospect.

Like Logan-Redding, though, it hasn't led to more than occasional sights of the field. In the Cactus Bowl, Joyner did not pop off the screen in the time he got. He did, however, get into the backfield on a few occasions, at one point being the one to close out a coverage sack.

Joyner has the tools, and he will get an opportunity to put them to use in a larger sample. He's already second on the two-deep, though, and some potential monster freshmen are coming up behind him. He needs to make the most of the chances he gets.

The backup rush end will be Danny Striggow, a redshirt sophomore who has mostly featured on special teams to this point. Against tackles other than Aireontae Ersery, he had a pretty good spring game. We could attribute that mostly to Striggow being lighter and faster than behemoths Cameron James and Tyrell Lawrence, but Striggow had a good spring game in 2021 as well. He's ahead of a player who has been highlighted more by the coaching staff and who was a higher-rated recruit. Striggow just looks like he might have something, and we'll get to see how much this year.

Potential Rotation Option (at End)

Austin Booker is seemingly third on the depth chart at rush end but could have some situational utility this year. He received plenty of praise from Fleck as an incoming freshman last August, with his speed and explosivness getting special note. We saw a bit of that this past April.

This was a good rep by Eastern, too.

He might need to improve as a run defender, but it would make sense to see Booker in 3rd-and-long packages for the time being. He's intriguing enough to believe he could surpass Striggow on the depth chart between now and the opening game of 2023.

Evaluating a Vanderbilt player is a bit difficult when every one of the Commodores' games is a bloodletting, but I can say confidently that Lorenza Surgers was not the team's biggest problem.

Surgers' role with the Commodores was as a mostly standup edge rusher, comparable to the Gophers' rush end. He was not very impactful there but seemingly was not a net negative. His long, 275-pound frame makes him a more natural fit for 5-technique, which is where he will play for Minnesota. Surgers' spring game performance at that spot showed he can get the jump on an opposing lineman (at least a bigger one) and use his quickness to shed a block. He'll be behind Joyner on the depth chart but should get on the field at some point this season.

Notable Ends Unlikely to Contribute

True freshman Anthony Smith is already getting attention for his blend of size and athleticism but might just be frozen out of regular playing time this year because of the team's depth. The tape from his junior year of high school can be absurd. At 6 feet 6 inches, Smith was the biggest person on the field and tossed around those southern Pennsylvania kids like they were nothing. He flashed a good motor but other times made plays once he restarted said motor and then ran halfway across the field to bring down the ballcarrier. It's doubtful such extreme dominance continues against full-sized Division I athletes, but he's got great physical tools and should be an impactful player at some point.

Fleck said on he thinks both Smith and Hayden Schwartz have the potential to be physical, game-wrecking defensive ends like A.J. Epenesa at Iowa or George Karlaftis at Purdue. Schwartz doesn't possess Smith's physique but showed tenacity and explosiveness as a high schooler, playing everywhere he could on the defensive line. Whether you take Fleck's exact words as earnest praise or as Signing Day hyperbole, Schwartz has talent.

Also included in that bit about finding big, dominant edge rushers was Trey Bixby, another true freshman. (There could be some kind of 5-technique logjam in the next couple of years.) Bixby, from Eden Prairie, officially or unofficially visited campus six times before signing last year, having committed the previous August. He was the highest-rated recruit in Minnesota and in the Gophers' 2022 class, which will mean higher expectations. For now, though, he looks more likely to sit. Bixby has more filling out to do than Smith, and besides, he was in street clothes for Minnesota's early-August open practice, suggesting some kind of injury.