Gophers Notebook: Minnesota 34-37 Northwestern

P.J. Fleck is not on the hot seat. I figure it's best to start with the big picture, since the gravity of this loss has surely pushed some fans to ignite their torches and many of Fleck's detractors to raise theirs in schadenfreude. The first text I got from a friend at the end of the game, in fact, posed this very question.

Fleck probably will not be on the hot seat unless Minnesota misses a bowl this season and has a bad start to 2024. That is both the reality and probably how it should be. He just signed a new contract last December, and he has a $7 million buyout. It is rare that a school pays that much to fire a football coach, and that's before considering the significant possibility that the U of M has to find a new men's basketball coach soon as well.

Besides that, the overall job Fleck has done as Minnesota head coach has been good. He is an effective program runner. In their last three full seasons, the Gophers have gone 29-10. They've beaten Wisconsin three of the last five times. They haven't lost a bowl game since Jerry Kill was coach.

In the aggregate, things are going well. Fleck was athletic director Mark Coyle's first big hire, and the university has shown little interest in non-performance reasons to look unfavorably on Fleck. Barring any shocking developments, he is staying.

As long as he stays, though, Fleck will cost his team with poor game management. Punting multiple times from within the opponents' 40-yard line. Turtling early in the fourth quarter when the lead was not insurmountable. Passing just 19 times when his pedigreed young quarterback was having a solid game and as the rushing attack was slowing down. Kicking a field goal from the 2-yard line as the first team to go on offense in overtime.

None of this is new. It's how Minnesota keeps losing Floyd of Rosedale. It's how they blew a late lead against Maryland in 2020. It's how they suffered an appalling upset against Bowling Green in 2022, only to suffer the exact same fate against Illinois less than two months later. It played a big part in how the Gophers lost their most important game this century.

Fleck has seen ample evidence that the way he coaches games and the style he requires his offense to play are problems. Not weaknesses that naturally come about as some corollary to a strength elsewhere, not just an unpopular set of tastes he happens to have for how to approach a football game. Problems. Chronic, game-wrecking problems.

No matter what recruits and transfers Fleck gets to play for him, no matter how good his defensive coordinator is, and no matter how much his players and staff buy in, Fleck repeatedly stands in his own way. Even if the Gophers stay where they are in the new version of the Big Ten, somehow making bowls every year in a tougher league, Fleck will put a ceiling on what is possible for his team. That's because because the average caffeine-fueled 13-year-old playing Madden online until 2:00 a.m. every night knows better than Fleck when to go for it on 4th down and how to manage the clock.

There is no reason the Gophers had to lose this game. They were easily the better team. They had a 21-point lead entering the fourth quarter. And in fairness to Fleck, sometimes 11 guys stop playing football as well as they have before, something a coach can only control so much. But he did not put his players in position to succeed. If the head coach had done his job more competently, the Gophers might have had a close call but still likely would have won this game.

Fleck must change. I've said that too often to believe he ever will.

Gophers Notebook: Minnesota 13-31 North Carolina

This loss confirmed some of Gopher fans' greatest fears. In particular, the issues we saw from Minnesota's offense in the first two weeks of the season look serious — namely, the continued inconsistency of Athan Kaliakmanis and the whole unit's ineptitude near the goal line.

Kaliakmanis wasn't always well-protected, but he didn't handle pressure as well as he has in his previous games as a Gopher. Even when the pressure was marginal, Kaliakmanis rushed himself, frequently overshooting his targets or applying too much speed. On his interception, he put the ball behind and nearly over Brevyn Spann-Ford.

It was the third time in the last 12 months that a pass hit Spann-Ford's hand and ended up an interception, but it's fair to say this one was the quarterback's fault.

Kaliakmanis' accuracy and pocket presence weren't the only problems. He was late on his reads and looked away from open receivers. When kept totally clean, he delivered a few strikes to his receivers, and he still ran mostly effectively. But rather than a few little things being the difference between an okay performance and a strong one, as has been the case before, Kaliakmanis made repeated, game-killing errors. All while the UNC secondary looked just as vulnerable as it was expected to be entering the game.

It was, in Kaliakmanis' words, the worst game he'd ever played. He has two straight "get right" games before facing Michigan's menacing defense. He needs to take full advantage of the next couple of weeks and find a rhythm.

Gophers Notebook: Eastern Michigan 6-25 Minnesota

Darius Taylor wowed in his first substantial taste of FBS action. In Week 1 against Howard, Eastern Michigan entered halftime ahead 30-9. Coming out of the break, the Bison changed their approach. No more letting quarterback Quinto Williams sail passes over his receivers; over their next three drives, the Eagles ran the ball on two-thirds of their plays. They paired that with an increase in tempo to try and catch EMU flat-footed.

Those 18 runs went for 147 yards, or 7.7 per attempt. Howard's greatest success came on the outside, attacking the edge and forcing the Eagles' linebackers to chase their tailbacks. It's one of the biggest reasons the Bison cut their deficit to just 30-23 before the end of the third quarter.

And it gave Eastern Michigan's next opponents all the justification they needed to run and run and run until EMU showed they could stop it. Minnesota's greatest successes came between the tackles — according to Pro Football Focus, non-sneak runs through the A and B gaps averaged 2 more yards per carry than those to the outside — but the Gophers were successful any way they wanted.

And their greatest contributor was Taylor, the true freshman who had just one carry in his debut against Nebraska. Taylor's 193 rushing yards against the Eagles matched what the Cornhuskers put up as a team in Week 1. His most impressive trait was his toughness, running through arm tackles and keeping his balance to gain extra yards.

Taylor didn't show off the explosiveness he had as a high schooler, but on a few occasions, he was one ankle tackle (or, in one moment, a stumble) away from breaking off a huge run. He had plenty of holes to run though, but it takes patience and skill to exploit them.

The Gophers' 54 percent success rate on the ground, more than double what they registered against Nebraska, serves as reason for encouragement. Especially in light of how the Huskers' front did against Colorado this week (4.9 yards per non-sack carry allowed, plus eight sacks) suggests Minnesota's line might be better than its first outing suggested. At the very least, we know they are still capable of bullying weaker competition.

Gophers Notebook: Nebraska 10-13 Minnesota

The customary "Midweek Review" series is going away this year because Chandler does not have as much time as he used to have. This is the first post in his new format for his opinions, the "Gophers Notebook." It's a less organized and a little less formal but in theory more immediate, aiming less to encapsulate an entire game than to hit on key takeaways.

Ugly wins still count. If you felt physically ill for much of the second half, that's understandable. Nebraska's always well-traveling support did not overrun Minneapolis like it has in the past, but the calls of "Go Big Red" and "Husker power" were especially audible as muted frustration and hastily-unlocked Minnesota pessimism took over the home crowd. Minnesota's rushing attack — the basis for their entire schematic identity — posted a success rate of just 24 percent. Their return game was woeful. Nebraska found just enough offensive efficiency through quarterback Jeff Sims to build and hold a narrow lead. The Cornhuskers' toughness impressed after years of Scott Frost football, but both teams' skill was lacking.

Nevertheless, a couple of big turnovers gave the Gophers late life. An astonishing catch tied the game, and a successful 1-minute drill gave their new kicker a chance to make a mark on his fourth-ever college field goal attempt. Dragan Kesich knew it was good the moment it left his foot.

In a roar, the crowd released their hopelessness and "typical Minnesota" cynicism. The Gophers, in spite of everything, are 1-0.

Against a team that hasn't gone bowling in the last six seasons, it shouldn't have looked anything like this. Greenhorns and veterans gave mixed performances. Nebraska revealed cracks in both the offensive and defensive fronts for Minnesota, leaving the Gophers with questions to answer in places that are usually their strengths. For half the game, the Huskers were in control.

Win probability chart via Game on Paper.

But for now, the Gophers are 1-0. Their fans get to watch the rest of the Week 1 slate at relative peace, celebrating the return of college football and knowing that next week, against possibly the worst team on the team's schedule, there is the opportunity to iron out deficiencies, let injuries heal, and hopefully have a far less stressful evening.