With a traversable schedule and an improving roster, it looked like 2019 was going to be P.J. Fleck's breakout season. Though there didn't appear to be many easy wins, there sure looked like a lot of games Minnesota would be favored.
Much of the Big Ten West was in transition: Nebraska, though overhyped, seemed likely to be better at the end of the season than they were at the beginning and might break into the top-25. Illinois, though improving, was a good distance from seriously competing. Northwestern rode a senior-heavy roster and some luck to the division title in 2018, which didn't foretell another great season. Purdue looked poised for a breakout soon, but a young offensive line meant that "soon" probably was 2020 or later.
The biggest questions were about the teams that usually control the West: Iowa and Wisconsin. Could the Hawkeyes consistently move the ball after losing their best receiving threats? Were the Badgers going to be great defensively and on the offensive line, or would some key graduations make them merely good?
The Penn State game was probably a loss, and the Gophers weren't going to go undefeated against the rest of their schedule. But if they could keep Paul Bunyan's Axe or finally win back the Floyd of Rosedale, they could have easily found themselves in the race in November.
What looked like a potentially exciting season instead turned into something much greater. It became the Gophers' best season since Murray Warmath was coach. The program entered the national spotlight, winning its biggest game in years and finally bringing College Gameday to Northrop Mall; Lee Corso put on a Goldy Gopher head. The school gave a lengthy extension to the man who took them to these heights, making sure he remains theirs. Going into the final week of the regular season, all Minnesota needed to do was beat Wisconsin, and the Gophers would win the West. From there, they would go to the Rose Bowl for the first time in nearly six decades.
The game looked like a near-toss-up coming into Saturday. The door was wide open for the Gophers to make their dreams of Pasadena a reality. Instead, in the driving snow, the offense was dominated, and the defense crumbled in a dream-shattering loss to their most hated rivals.
Ten wins wasn't enough for the Gophers to accomplish some of their loftiest goals. But it was enough to rally the support of fans across the state and get a usually cynical, often apathetic fan base to believe that they could accomplish those goals. For a program stuck in mediocrity for more than half a century, that's an accomplishment.
In his postgame press conference, Fleck was adamant that "We can. I know we didn't tonight, but that doesn't mean we won't forever." The miseries of the past, he said, do not have to return:
"Let's not go back. Let's not start thinking, 'Well, that's typical' — that has to be out of our system. And there's gonna be cynics, there's gonna be doubters, there's gonna be critics, but the true fans, what we want them to do is get that completely out of their mind. Because we are not going back to that. You don't have to worry about that with me, our staff, our recruiting, our culture, our support, our administration, our president, Mark Coyle — you don't have to worry about that anymore."
With a young roster and a number of underclassmen at key positions, along with solid recruiting, there's no reason why Minnesota cannot return to this stage and succeed next time. There's more in store for this program despite one failure.
2. Wisconsin's pass rush was too much for Minnesota to handle.
Wisconsin's defenders were in the backfield all day, sacking Tanner Morgan five times. Though they blitzed frequently, the Badgers often got pressure through sheer talent. Zack Baun had 2.0 sacks by himself; he got one of them by blazing past backup tight end Bryce Witham at the snap:
Morgan took a sack here because the Wisconsin secondary covered his receivers well.
Jack Sanborn got the first sack one can credit to the blitz; seven Badgers rushed Morgan here. John Michael Schmitz and Rodney Smith both picked up the same linebacker instead of Sanborn, allowing Sanborn through untouched.
This late strip-sack was more the result of good coverage, but the Badgers' defensive tackles drove through their blockers, meeting Sanborn in Morgan's face. Garrett Rand made the tackle and created the fumble.
Minnesota has a strategic way to deal with pressure like this, but for the second time this season, it hasn't been available to them. Against Iowa, the Gophers couldn't counter the Hawkeyes' pass rush with their six-lineman sets because right guard Curtis Dunlap was injured. Against Wisconsin, they lost Daniel Faalele in the first half, and that option went away again. Against one of the best defensive fronts in the country, the Gophers probably needed it to give their quarterback more protection.
3. The Badgers allowed a couple of big runs, but the Gophers couldn't stay on schedule.
Wisconsin's dominance up front continued against Minnesota's rushing attack.
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| You can find explanations for each stat here. All references to rushing yards exclude sacks. |
The Gophers' stuff rate on offense was the highest of the season, and their Opportunity Rate was the second-lowest of the season. Two plays accounted for 59 of the Gophers' 96 rushing yards. Wisconsin strangled Minnesota's ground game, sometimes by bringing extra defenders into the box after Morgan had checked to a run.
Other times, it was simple domination.
The Badgers got off of their blocks, they filled gaps, and they made tackles. It was a thoroughly dominating defensive performance.
4. Morgan couldn't throw the way he did for most of the season.
It's hard to say how much adverse weather affects games. If the balls are wet, the equipment staff might do a good job of drying them off, or the players might be prepared for the conditions.
That said, it sure looked like the sleet and snow affected Minnesota's passing game. Morgan's throws didn't always spiral, and his accuracy was as inconsistent as it's been all season. This interception was largely the result of a bad decision, but it was also a bad throw. The spiral was imperfect, and Morgan likely didn't throw the ball hard enough to hit Tyler Johnson in the chest even without a deflection.
This pass to Demetrius Douglas was far uglier. Though it got over the defensive line and reached its target, the ball wobbled from the instant it left Morgan's hand.
Morgan also entirely missed receivers, often throwing over them.
The precipitation didn't seem to matter on all of his passes — he still threw for 296 yards — but Morgan's day was likely worse because of it. The dominant opposing defense and bad weather contributed to one of his worst games of the year, if not the worst.
5. Despite containing Jonathan Taylor, the Gophers couldn't slow down the Badgers.
Wisconsin offensive coordinator Joe Rudolph called an excellent game. The Badgers couldn't get much going with straighforward runs with Taylor; the Gophers crowded the interior, got penetration, and forced two punts on the Badgers' first two drives. Defensive coordinator Joe Rossi used more 4-3 to match Wisconsin's 21 and 12 personnel sets, and it produced a promising start.
Rudolph responded to the Gophers' numbers inside with misdirection. He shifted formations and sent his receivers in motion to draw defenders eyes away from the play. Some of Wisconsin's biggest plays came off of shifts and motion, like this end around on 4th-and-short:
The Badgers went back to the concept later for their second touchdown of the afternoon:
And they burned the Gophers on throwback screens to running backs. The most significant of these was an absolute backbreaker. On 3rd-and-6, with the Gophers clinging to one of their last chances to stay in the game, Rossi called a blitz. That opened up space for Garrett Groshek to ease into the flat with three linemen in front of him, and he kept going for a 70-yard gain.
Wisconsin went up 21 points a play later, essentially sealing the game.
Screens weren't the only way the Badgers handled Rossi's affinity for blitzes. Wisconsin's first touchdown of the game came against a blitz from Antoine Winfield and Kamal Martin; Carter Coughlin, who plays coverage relatively often, took Taylor in man coverage on a wheel. Though, as Kirk Herbstreit said on the broadcast, Coughlin stayed in phase with Taylor, he overran him as Taylor turned to catch the pass from Jack Coan. With his back turned, Coughlin didn't have a chance.
Additionally, the Badgers took advantage of the Gophers' personnel selection. Against a 4-3, they shifted into a four-wide look. Their top receiver, Quintez Cephus, lined up in the slot, in front of linebacker Thomas Barber. Cephus ran a seam route, and safety Jordan Howden was out of position to help Barber. It was an easy touchdown.
Most of the Badgers' production came in a 254-yard second half, which more than doubled their first-half yardage on 11 fewer plays.
For the game, they averaged 7.9 yards per play. The only other time this season the Gophers' defense allowed 7.0 or more yards per play, timely turnovers and explosive offense bailed them out against Penn State. Minnesota's only takeaway was a fumble recovery by Coughlin off a strip by Winston DeLattiboudere, and I've covered the offense's struggles.
Fleck said after the game that Rudolph's wrinkles were on film. They still caught the Gophers off-guard, and even when they didn't, Minnesota didn't execute.
6. Paul Chryst managed the game better than Fleck did.
Chryst knew how important the game was. Twice, he went for it on 4th-and-short from opposing territory, and each time he did so deserves praise.
The first time, Wisconsin had the ball at Minnesota's 37-yard line. Instead of punting, as Fleck had done with 2 yards of better field position and 1 fewer yard to gain the previous quarter, Chryst understood that the situation demanded aggressiveness. The Badgers converted, only to give the ball away on a fumble the next play.
The second time, it was 4th-and-2 from Minnesota's 19. Both Wisconsin kickers could hit field goals from that range (Zach Hintze kicked a 62-yarder against Purdue), but Chryst didn't just take the points. Coan ran for 4 yards and a 1st down on a sneak.
Of course, Chryst also kicked a field goal on 4th-and-3 from the 8-yard line four plays later, so it's not like he coached like Kevin Kelley. (He might have avoided kicking the second time because of the weather.) But he put his team in better position to win with aggressive decisions early. Additionally, whether Chryst or special teams coordinator Chris Haering made the call, it was a good idea to try surprising the Gophers with this reverse on a kickoff return:
This was the biggest game of the Badgers' season, and they approached it like it was.
Fleck, meanwhile, set his team back. Punting on 4th-and-2 from well inside opposing territory is an indefensible move. Calling a timeout in the third quarter while trailing in a close and important game is an indefensible move. Playing for a field goal and running on 3rd-and-10 immediately after the timeout, and then kicking a field goal, is not indefensible, but it is definitely suboptimal strategy. Between the punt and the field goal, Fleck conceivably left 11 points on the board. Considering the game was well within reach until 4 minutes into the fourth quarter, the Gophers really could have used an extra 11 points and a timeout.
Fleck is a fantastic coach to build and maintain a program, but must improve his game management, or he will keep hurting his team on gameday.
7. This space is reserved for absurd catches by Gophers receivers.
This is easily the least "absurd" catch I've included in this space this season, but it was a remarkable play both by Morgan and Bateman, and Bateman did a good job to find an opening and make a difficult (but not really absurd) catch. It was a sad day, so we'll say this qualifies.
The offense's struggles certainly weren't the fault of Bateman and Tyler Johnson. They combined for 236 yards and two touchdowns on 14 receptions. They had another great game against a handsy set of defensive backs. Johnson could skip his last game to avoid injury before the NFL Draft, but if he doesn't, the two of them will have one more chance to burn an opposing secondary together.
8. Ciarrocca botched Minnesota's last chance to stay in the game.
At the end of the third quarter, the Gophers had 1st-and-goal from the Wisconsin 6-yard line. To start the set of downs, Mohamed Ibrahim ran for 2 yards, and Smith was stuffed for no gain, setting up 3rd down. Ciarrocca, forever believing in his receivers' ability in the air, called a fade to Johnson.
Goal-line fades are bad playcalls. They force quarterbacks to make perfect throws into tight windows. They have no other options, which is about as counterintuitive as play design gets. Receivers have to be great or hope their defenders commit pass interference. Johnson and Bateman are talented enough to make fades better ideas than they are for most offenses, but that has never made the strategy sound.
On this play, just two eligible receivers ran routes. The other three blocked. Morgan was going one place with the ball the entire time, and if the coverage was tight (which it was), he had no second read. Caesar Williams probably interfered with Johnson, but the officials were generous to defensive backs for most of the game. This was unlikely to ever work.
On 4th-and-goal, Ciarrocca called an out for Johnson.
Ciarrocca once again gave Morgan just two (but likely one) potential target running routes. Morgan once again had to make a difficult throw from the opposite hash. Johnson once again ran into tight coverage, but this time, his route made it uncertain whether he would have crossed the goal line with the ball after a catch. This was also unlikely to ever work.
Wisconsin had shown the futility of running the ball, but there were more effective ways to pass. Though Williams and the opposite cornerback had inside leverage on Johnson and Bateman, the Gophers had opened up the middle of the end zone on each play by using 12 personnel. The Badgers responded to the two-tight end sets by playing Cover 0 both times. Play-action could have drawn in the linebackers and given a receiver time to cut inside. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard probably knew to expect a play-action slant, but his defense twice presented the opportunity to try it.
A score here would have made it a one-possession game with most of a quarter left to play. A touchdown was vital to Minnesota's chances, and Ciarrocca played a major role in preventing one.
9. In 12 games, Seth Green's presence on the field never drifted from predictability.
Green usually sees the field as the Wildcat quarterback, but his official position is receiver. He made two catches on four targets last season, and he occasionally lined up as one this season, as on this snap against Purdue:
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| Green is at the bottom. |
But when Green has been at receiver, he has not been a part of the offense. Saturday, on the Gophers' last scoring drive, he got his first catch on his first target of 2019. Though Green's time out wide decreased as the season went on, the fact is that he was never a threat.
In his more typical role, Green either ran up the middle or gave the ball to the running back. In conference play, we saw Green turn into a blocker on direct snaps to the running back:
At the end of the regular season, the Green Line looks like a success. Green scored five touchdowns and gained seven 1st downs on 26 attempts, not all of which were in short-yardage situations.
But Green never offered a passing threat; he hasn't thrown once. Last season, he threw five times (plus a sixth on a successful two-point attempt, which doesn't count statistically). He completed four and threw an interception; two passes resulted in touchdowns, and a third resulted in a 1st down.
Since they haven't had to worry about the pass against the Green Line, opposing defenses have responded with looks like this:
Facing eight- or nine-man boxes has given the Gophers ample space to go over the top. They have hurt themselves by not trying to take advantage of it. Throwing once in a while, even if seldom successful, might have forced defenses to play deeper, clearing more room in the box to run. It is a strategic failure that Ciarrocca never used Green beyond his primary role.
10. The 2019 senior class leaves a tremendous legacy.
Thirteen players will exhaust their eligibility after Minnesota's bowl game. They are one of the most significant in school history, playing for three different head coaches in five years (or, for one of them, six), and helping put the program on a positive trajectory. I would like to highlight four of the players honored on Senior Day.
DeLattiboudere is one of my favorite athletes to wear Maroon and Gold. He was never a star, but I always appreciated his enthusiastic and articulate answers in press conferences, as well as the glimpses I got of him serving the community. I am thankful he has represented the University of Minnesota.
According to 247Sports, Coughlin is the second-highest-rated prospect to ever sign with Minnesota (after Jeff Jones, who played in three games), and he has lived up to his expectations. He is third and fourth in program history in sacks and tackles for loss, respectively.
Should Johnson stay for the bowl, he will likely break the program's career records for receiving yards and touchdowns. He, Eric Decker, and Ron Johnson are the greatest in school history to play wide receiver. It has been a gift to watch his college career up close, and I hope he has a successful career in the NFL.
I have never cared about a time in Gopher football that has not included Rodney Smith. I know there was a time before him, and I know there will be a time after him, but he has been a constant presence on the field for the U of M's freshmen of 2015. A starter for four years and some change, Smith put together good seasons behind young and thin offensive lines and as the best option next to often frustrating quarterback play. His understated demeanor on the field and soft-spoken press conferences (as well as his apparently excellent handwriting) were always endearing. I am most glad that he of all players was around long enough to be a part of the Gophers' breakthrough.
Next Game
We don't know when, where, or whom the Gophers play next. The most likely bowl destinations are Tampa and Orlando, where an SEC team would await. Whether that's Alabama (who tumbled in the Playoff rankings after outperforming Auburn in a loss), Auburn, Tennessee, or someone else should be sorted out on Monday.
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