October 31, 2023

Gophers Notebook: Michigan State 12-27 Minnesota

Fifth-string walk-on tailback Jordan Nubin stole the show. Nubin isn't as explosive as Darius Taylor or as shifty as Zach Evans, and he's no comparison to Mohamed Ibrahim when it comes to breaking tackles. But even though he joined the program as a safety two years ago, he sure looks like a Gopher running back. While Nubin scored a couple touchdowns, this carry feels more representative of his style than either:

Minnesota relies heavily on zone runs, which requires tailbacks who are patient, balanced, and physical. Nubin showed each of those qualities against Michigan State. He waited for his line to open up lanes (including cutbacks), kept his pads low so he could change direction and cut through the hole, and pushed through contact. He did such a good job of it that the Gophers just kept giving him the ball until he had 204 yards.

This performance deserves additional context. According to the Minnesota media guide, this was the 33rd 200-rushing-yard performance in program history. The list of players who have done this is surprisingly exclusive. Before Nubin, only 17 pulled it off, and many are program legends. The only one whose career rushing yardage doesn't rank in Minnesota's top 30 all-time is Clarence Schutte. Schutte famously ran for 282 yards against Illinois in 1924, but that was his only season as a Gopher.

Notably, a player's 200-yard game did not make up more than a sixth of his career rushing totals unless he ran for 200 yards multiple times. Nubin is a different story.

The U of M media guide only ranks players with 1,000 career rushing yards.

Obviously, Nubin is a redshirt sophomore who is in line to move up on the depth chart next season. Even if he never plays a role as prominent as the one he had on Saturday, he is already a quarter of the way to 1,000 career yards. By the time he leaves Minnesota, four-fifths of Nubin's career total coming in one game will likely end up a small-sample oddity.

At the same time, it remains an absurd achievement. Nubin was not supposed to play outside of blowouts this year. He may go his entire college career as a backup. He isn't on scholarship. He is, in the most unfair and reductive terms possible, the less famous brother of a future NFL player. And he ran for 204 yards. Whether or not Nubin can keep up a high level of play, or even need to do so again this season, no one can take this moment away from him or from his family.

October 24, 2023

Gophers Notebook: Minnesota 12-10 Iowa

You probably remember where you were the last time.

My story is not very interesting. I was in Washington, D.C. at a high school journalism convention, sitting outside a restaurant within the convention center. Minnesota was busy steamrolling Iowa on a TV across the room. I had just been accepted to the U of M but had no strong attachment and therefore did not celebrate.

I even sympathized a little with the Hawkeyes, who were the favorite team of my grandfather and many of my extended relatives. When I started school the next fall and heard the first "Who hates Iowa?" chant in the student section, I couldn't earnestly respond, "We hate Iowa!"

And then the first loss came. And the second. And the third and fourth and fifth and sixth and seventh and eighth. It started small, but eventually losing to Iowa became an annual exercise in misery.

This game stood between Minnesota and two Big Ten West titles, not to mention a Rose Bowl appearance. This was the game that the best Gopher of the 21st century dominated yet somehow could not win. This was game that Minnesota's head coach blew repeatedly by refusing to take risks and by diving headfirst into the slop that the Hawkeyes make their home. This was a game whose villains could not be defeated because, defying all reason, every bounce seemed to go their way.

Which all makes it the more astonishing that the Gophers won at Kinnick Stadium the way that they did: Minnesota beat Iowa by playing the part of Iowa.

The general script was not a surprise. We all expected a punt-heavy rock fight, and that's what we got.

Entering the game, the current Iowa offense looked like the worst that Kirk Ferentz has ever fielded. This is mostly the fault of offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz. A program that used to produce NFL linemen every year is now below-average up front. The Hawkeyes have had terminal quarterback problems since Nate Stanley graduated. They cannot find and retain talented wide receivers to complement their typically talented running backs and the best tight ends in the country.

At the same time, competent transfer quarterback Cade McNamara was not supposed to suffer a season-ending injury. Nor were tight ends Luke Lachey and Erick All. It looked like this team would finally have a competent offense again, but misfortune smashed the legs of their chair out from under them. You cannot blame the Ferentzes for that.

Nevertheless, these absences rendered Iowa's offense the worst on Minnesota's schedule.

Playing a bad opponent doesn't guarantee positive results, but the Gophers delivered them. Their dominance was comprehensive to the point of comedy, as summed up by Iowa's entire second-half output: 2 yards.

Deacon Hill was not enough to win this game. Hill should have thrown more than one interception. The Gophers sat back on passing downs and waited for Hill to deliver. Either he'd throw short, and they'd make a tackle, or Hill would make a mistake. Tyler Nubin, always seeking an interception, went hunting for mistakes and almost came away with a couple picks.


October 08, 2023

Gophers Notebook: Michigan 52-10 Minnesota

There's a saying after a loss like this: Burn the film. When you cannot learn anything from the way your team was so thoroughly beaten, because there are no adjustments you could have made to affect the result, throwing the tape in the fireplace would serve you just as well as watching it again.

Because I'm not a coach, I do not know how literally coaches ever follow this axiom. I'm sure, because they're workaholics and because it is literally their job, they always go back and watch it for themselves or as a staff. But when reviewing it with the players, what can they say?

Because Saturday was not about one "something" that Minnesota can fix between now and the next game. It was not only about playcalling, game management (though P.J. Fleck still has not learned how to run a 2-minute drill in over a decade of being a head coach), mental errors stemming from inadequate or incomplete position coaching, or players quitting. Michigan is just a better team than Minnesota: stronger, faster, and more skilled at just about every position.

Was Athan Kaliakmanis good? No. His two interceptions were two different ways to fail at essentially the same throw, trying to hit an intermediate target at the sideline. The first time, he overthrew Daniel Jackson trying to not put it in the path of the slot defender.

The second time, Kaliakmanis either didn't see or disregarded the underneath defender.

October 02, 2023

Gophers Notebook: Louisiana-Lafayette 24-35 Minnesota

The Minnesota offense looked like a Minnesota offense — in a (mostly) good way. If P.J. Fleck could run the ball 50 times every game, you get the sense that he would. When his team gashes the opponent at a 55.3-percent rushing success rate, Fleck's head looks like it's in the right place.

The Gophers were down budding star Darius Taylor but didn't need him to overpower the Ragin' Cajuns. Zach Evans, the intriguing redshirt freshman, made his 2023 debut and was excellent as Minnesota's lead tailback. Evans averaged 5.7 yards per carry with outstanding vision, acceleration, and balance.

Sean Tyler's reintroduction was also positive, if less impactful. Bryce Williams will always have the coaches' trust, having been with the program since Rodney Smith was still on the roster, but Evans made a strong case to at least be the No. 2 once Taylor returns. Whatever happens, to have such depth at the position and the chance to implement a legitimate four-back rotation makes for a rare privilege.

September 24, 2023

Gophers Notebook: Minnesota 34-37 Northwestern

P.J. Fleck is not on the hot seat. I figure it's best to start with the big picture, since the gravity of this loss has surely pushed some fans to ignite their torches and many of Fleck's detractors to raise theirs in schadenfreude. The first text I got from a friend at the end of the game, in fact, posed this very question.

Fleck probably will not be on the hot seat unless Minnesota misses a bowl this season and has a bad start to 2024. That is both the reality and probably how it should be. He just signed a new contract last December, and he has a $7 million buyout. It is rare that a school pays that much to fire a football coach, and that's before considering the significant possibility that the U of M has to find a new men's basketball coach soon as well.

Besides that, the overall job Fleck has done as Minnesota head coach has been good. He is an effective program runner. In their last three full seasons, the Gophers have gone 29-10. They've beaten Wisconsin three of the last five times. They haven't lost a bowl game since Jerry Kill was coach.

In the aggregate, things are going well. Fleck was athletic director Mark Coyle's first big hire, and the university has shown little interest in non-performance reasons to look unfavorably on Fleck. Barring any shocking developments, he is staying.

As long as he stays, though, Fleck will cost his team with poor game management. Punting multiple times from within the opponents' 40-yard line. Turtling early in the fourth quarter when the lead was not insurmountable. Passing just 19 times when his pedigreed young quarterback was having a solid game and as the rushing attack was slowing down. Kicking a field goal from the 2-yard line as the first team to go on offense in overtime.

None of this is new. It's how Minnesota keeps losing Floyd of Rosedale. It's how they blew a late lead against Maryland in 2020. It's how they suffered an appalling upset against Bowling Green in 2022, only to suffer the exact same fate against Illinois less than two months later. It played a big part in how the Gophers lost their most important game this century.

Fleck has seen ample evidence that the way he coaches games and the style he requires his offense to play are problems. Not weaknesses that naturally come about as some corollary to a strength elsewhere, not just an unpopular set of tastes he happens to have for how to approach a football game. Problems. Chronic, game-wrecking problems.

No matter what recruits and transfers Fleck gets to play for him, no matter how good his defensive coordinator is, and no matter how much his players and staff buy in, Fleck repeatedly stands in his own way. Even if the Gophers stay where they are in the new version of the Big Ten, somehow making bowls every year in a tougher league, Fleck will put a ceiling on what is possible for his team. That's because because the average caffeine-fueled 13-year-old playing Madden online until 2:00 a.m. every night knows better than Fleck when to go for it on 4th down and how to manage the clock.

There is no reason the Gophers had to lose this game. They were easily the better team. They had a 21-point lead entering the fourth quarter. And in fairness to Fleck, sometimes 11 guys stop playing football as well as they have before, something a coach can only control so much. But he did not put his players in position to succeed. If the head coach had done his job more competently, the Gophers might have had a close call but still likely would have won this game.

Fleck must change. I've said that too often to believe he ever will.

September 19, 2023

Gophers Notebook: Minnesota 13-31 North Carolina

This loss confirmed some of Gopher fans' greatest fears. In particular, the issues we saw from Minnesota's offense in the first two weeks of the season look serious — namely, the continued inconsistency of Athan Kaliakmanis and the whole unit's ineptitude near the goal line.

Kaliakmanis wasn't always well-protected, but he didn't handle pressure as well as he has in his previous games as a Gopher. Even when the pressure was marginal, Kaliakmanis rushed himself, frequently overshooting his targets or applying too much speed. On his interception, he put the ball behind and nearly over Brevyn Spann-Ford.

It was the third time in the last 12 months that a pass hit Spann-Ford's hand and ended up an interception, but it's fair to say this one was the quarterback's fault.

Kaliakmanis' accuracy and pocket presence weren't the only problems. He was late on his reads and looked away from open receivers. When kept totally clean, he delivered a few strikes to his receivers, and he still ran mostly effectively. But rather than a few little things being the difference between an okay performance and a strong one, as has been the case before, Kaliakmanis made repeated, game-killing errors. All while the UNC secondary looked just as vulnerable as it was expected to be entering the game.

It was, in Kaliakmanis' words, the worst game he'd ever played. He has two straight "get right" games before facing Michigan's menacing defense. He needs to take full advantage of the next couple of weeks and find a rhythm.

September 12, 2023

Gophers Notebook: Eastern Michigan 6-25 Minnesota

Darius Taylor wowed in his first substantial taste of FBS action. In Week 1 against Howard, Eastern Michigan entered halftime ahead 30-9. Coming out of the break, the Bison changed their approach. No more letting quarterback Quinto Williams sail passes over his receivers; over their next three drives, the Eagles ran the ball on two-thirds of their plays. They paired that with an increase in tempo to try and catch EMU flat-footed.

Those 18 runs went for 147 yards, or 7.7 per attempt. Howard's greatest success came on the outside, attacking the edge and forcing the Eagles' linebackers to chase their tailbacks. It's one of the biggest reasons the Bison cut their deficit to just 30-23 before the end of the third quarter.

And it gave Eastern Michigan's next opponents all the justification they needed to run and run and run until EMU showed they could stop it. Minnesota's greatest successes came between the tackles — according to Pro Football Focus, non-sneak runs through the A and B gaps averaged 2 more yards per carry than those to the outside — but the Gophers were successful any way they wanted.

And their greatest contributor was Taylor, the true freshman who had just one carry in his debut against Nebraska. Taylor's 193 rushing yards against the Eagles matched what the Cornhuskers put up as a team in Week 1. His most impressive trait was his toughness, running through arm tackles and keeping his balance to gain extra yards.

Taylor didn't show off the explosiveness he had as a high schooler, but on a few occasions, he was one ankle tackle (or, in one moment, a stumble) away from breaking off a huge run. He had plenty of holes to run though, but it takes patience and skill to exploit them.

The Gophers' 54 percent success rate on the ground, more than double what they registered against Nebraska, serves as reason for encouragement. Especially in light of how the Huskers' front did against Colorado this week (4.9 yards per non-sack carry allowed, plus eight sacks) suggests Minnesota's line might be better than its first outing suggested. At the very least, we know they are still capable of bullying weaker competition.

September 01, 2023

Gophers Notebook: Nebraska 10-13 Minnesota

The customary "Midweek Review" series is going away this year because Chandler does not have as much time as he used to have. This is the first post in his new format for his opinions, the "Gophers Notebook." It's a less organized and a little less formal but in theory more immediate, aiming less to encapsulate an entire game than to hit on key takeaways.

Ugly wins still count. If you felt physically ill for much of the second half, that's understandable. Nebraska's always well-traveling support did not overrun Minneapolis like it has in the past, but the calls of "Go Big Red" and "Husker power" were especially audible as muted frustration and hastily-unlocked Minnesota pessimism took over the home crowd. Minnesota's rushing attack — the basis for their entire schematic identity — posted a success rate of just 24 percent. Their return game was woeful. Nebraska found just enough offensive efficiency through quarterback Jeff Sims to build and hold a narrow lead. The Cornhuskers' toughness impressed after years of Scott Frost football, but both teams' skill was lacking.

Nevertheless, a couple of big turnovers gave the Gophers late life. An astonishing catch tied the game, and a successful 1-minute drill gave their new kicker a chance to make a mark on his fourth-ever college field goal attempt. Dragan Kesich knew it was good the moment it left his foot.

In a roar, the crowd released their hopelessness and "typical Minnesota" cynicism. The Gophers, in spite of everything, are 1-0.

Against a team that hasn't gone bowling in the last six seasons, it shouldn't have looked anything like this. Greenhorns and veterans gave mixed performances. Nebraska revealed cracks in both the offensive and defensive fronts for Minnesota, leaving the Gophers with questions to answer in places that are usually their strengths. For half the game, the Huskers were in control.

Win probability chart via Game on Paper.

But for now, the Gophers are 1-0. Their fans get to watch the rest of the Week 1 slate at relative peace, celebrating the return of college football and knowing that next week, against possibly the worst team on the team's schedule, there is the opportunity to iron out deficiencies, let injuries heal, and hopefully have a far less stressful evening.