But they left Iowa City 8-1 rather than 9-0 because they could not stop getting in their own way. Missed tackles, dropped passes, penalties, and conservative coaching cost the Gophers dearly. Against a good team in one of college football's toughest environments, they put in their most inconsistent performance of the season.
1. In the first half, Minnesota's defense was a mess.
Iowa's first three drives all ended in touchdowns, immediately putting Minnesota in a hole. Against a typically underwhelming offense, the Gophers were sloppy. They failed to set the edge:
They were soft in pass coverage:
And they missed tackle after tackle:
At the most basic aspects of defensive play, the Gophers failed. The Hawkeyes finished the first half averaging a ridiculous 8.5 yards per play. Their win probability, according to ESPN, was 90.9 percent.
It was the Gophers' worst half on defense this season, if not since Joe Rossi became defensive coordinator. That was just the start of Minnesota's rough evening in Kinnick.
2. Cascading errors spoiled a generally solid offensive game.
Facing a deficit early, Minnesota offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca was forced to nearly abandon the run. Tanner Morgan attempted the most passes of his season, and he turned in one of his best performances despite constant pressure in the pocket. He finished 25-of-36 for 368 yards and a touchdown, adding 7 rushing yards on this 4th down scramble:
Some of Morgan's throws were into tight windows, and he delivered with the precision necessary.
He also had moments of poise under pressure, like stepping up into this throw to Rashod Bateman.
As they often do, Bateman and Tyler Johnson made big catches:
Minnesota's passing success rate was a solid 49 percent, and the offense kept driving deep into Iowa territory. But Morgan's stats could have been better, and the Gophers could have scored more points, if not for some horribly timed mistakes. I'll get into the pass protection issues soon. The two most glaring errors elsewhere were by the Gophers' two biggest stars.
First, Bateman dropped a pass on 2nd-and-18 that would have put the Gophers in the red zone late in the 2nd quarter, when they desperately needed points to stay in the game.
A conversion could easily have led to a touchdown. Instead, after another incompletion, Minnesota punted.
But the Gophers got back into the game and back into Iowa territory. On a crucial 4th-and-4 in the 3rd quarter, their deficit cut to 7 points, they relied on the familiar: On a slant, Johnson beat Riley Moss off the line, Morgan delivered — and Johnson dropped the ball.
Though the defense forced Iowa to go three-and-out, Minnesota didn't see the red zone again until after Iowa had kicked a field goal to go up 10.
Bateman and Johnson's drops weren't the only problem, though.
3. The Gophers couldn't protect Morgan.
Iowa's A.J. Epenesa is one of the nation's top edge rushers and a likely first round pick in April's NFL Draft. He looked like it on Saturday, generating nine pressures, getting 2.5 sacks, and forcing a fumble. Left tackle Sam Schlueter flat-out whiffed on Epenesa multiple times:
On Minnesota's last possession, Epenesa lined up at tackle and easily moved past left guard Blaise Andries.
It was an impressive performance, but Iowa didn't just generate pressure through Epenesa's power and speed.
Four of the Hawkeyes' six sacks came on passing downs. Some defenses generate pressure in those situations by blitzing, but Iowa didn't do much of that. Instead, defensive coordinator Phil Parker dropped seven or eight defenders into coverage. When Morgan's options were unavailable, the Hawkeyes' pass rushers were there to force an incompletion or bring him down.
Morgan didn't always respond well to seeing nobody open. Below, he basically sacked himself by running from the pocket to find a receiver.
Parker's secondary gave up plenty of gains and should have given up more, but it made Morgan's reads harder and helped the defensive line get into the backfield.
4. P.J. Fleck's game management deficiencies reappeared.
The Gophers' two successful field goals were from the Iowa 6- and 2-yard lines. The latter, in the final moments of the first half of what was then a 17-point game, was just about indefensible. Fleck's explanation was that he was concerned about what he could tell the team at halftime if they went into the half still down 17. The message is not nearly as important as trying to keep up with a good team in a difficult environment, all while Minnesota's undefeated season and aspirations for Indianapolis and Pasadena were on the line.
The Gophers got the ball to start the second half. If they had gone for it on 4th down, they could have made it a one-possession game before the Hawkeyes had another drive. Instead, even after a Johnson touchdown in the third quarter, it was a two-possession game.
Earlier, Fleck chose to punt from Iowa's 33-yard line on 4th-and-18. The odds of converting are definitely low, but a punt from that area of the field has to be perfect to both avoid a touchback and give Iowa bad enough field position for it to have even possibly been worth it. (Jacob Herbers does deserve credit for placing Iowa at the 2-yard line.) And even then, you can only net 32 yards from the best possible punt. The benefits to punting from so deep in opposing territory are so minimal that an offense should never try it.
Fleck also mismanaged the Gophers' comeback attempt in the fourth quarter. On their penultimate drive, the Gophers took 3:46 to run nine plays. That's an average of 25.1 seconds per play. They didn't move with enough urgency, to the point that on 1st-and-goal from the 1-yard line, Fleck used a timeout to avoid a delay of game. Iowa got the ball back with 3:27 left, and Minnesota's final possession started with 1:52 left.
That 1st-and-goal timeout was maybe Fleck's most bewildering decision of the night. He had already used a timeout earlier in the half. Unless his team could recover an onside kick (and they didn't), he really needed both of the timeouts he had left. Instead, he traded one of them for 5 yards on a 1st down. It was the last of a series of bad coaching decisions that did the Gophers no favors in a game they should have won.
5. Fleck's penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct had little consequence.
After Johnson dropped Morgan's pass on 4th-and-4 in the third quarter, Iowa's Dane Belton knocked him to the turf with a late hit. Though Johnson slightly sold the violence of the hit, Belton deserved to be flagged for it. However, it was Iowa's ball already due to the turnover on downs.
Fleck saw Johnson on the ground, feared that his player was hurt, and ran onto the field to talk to him. He was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct, and Iowa moved from the 7-yard line to the 22.
Though Fleck overreacted and hurt his team, the damage was not great. The difference in field position was not major, and the Gophers' defense kept the Hawkeyes out of field goal range. It was a merely bizarre moment that didn't significantly affect the outcome of the game.
6. Minnesota's special teams unit is the team's weakest.
Normal starting placekicker Michael Lantz has missed the past two games, and in his place, Brock Walker has taken his reps. The redshirt freshman has not impressed. His three successful field goals have been from 26 yards or closer. I don't expect a 50-yarder to be routine, but I do expect them to have a better chance of going through the goalposts than Walker's attempt did.
At the end of the first half, Walker scared Gophers fans by glancing a 20-yarder off the upright.
Still, it went through, and it counted for 3 points. The below extra point attempt in the fourth quarter, meanwhile, completely missed, which eliminated kicking a field goal to tie the game as a possibility.
Though Walker had a bad game, it's not like he is the only Minnesota special teamer to struggle this season. Lantz has missed two extra point attempts this season, as well as field goals from 33 and 36 yards. Grant Ryerse has put three kickoffs out of bounds. Herbers' 38.0 yards per punt ranks 122nd in FBS, and he fumbled a snap against Illinois. Demetrius Douglas has muffed two punts. Against Iowa, Benjamin St-Juste committed kick catch interference, giving the Hawkeyes the field position to eventually kick a late field goal. All around, it's been bad. According to SP+, Minnesota's special teams rank 98th in FBS.
With a young roster as a whole, and with three underclassmen (Lantz, Walker, and Ryerse) handling kicking, it's likely that this unit will get better in coming seasons. But right now, it is holding back the Gophers.
7. This space is reserved for absurd catches by Gophers receivers.
Though his drop on 4th-and-4 may stick out more than his other plays, Johnson still performed at a high level yet again. Without catches like this (which admittedly rates somewhat low in absurdity compared to previous catches in this space) the Gophers never would have been in a position for that drop to matter.
Johnson finished the day with 9 receptions on 13 targets for 170 yards and a touchdown, giving him a total of 14 career 100-yard games. No other player in program history has more than nine such games.
8. Minnesota's defense rebounded well in the second half.
After allowing 8.5 yards per play and a success rate greater than 50 percent in the first half, Rossi's defense tightened up. The Hawkeyes averaged just 2.8 yards per play (less than a third of their rate in the first half) and posted success rates of 40 percent and 22 percent in the third and fourth quarters.
Rossi brought more blitzes and stunts to pressure Stanley, and it worked. Both of Minnesota's sacks came in the second half, and the Gophers generated more pressure on other dropbacks.
Above all else, the Gophers tackled better, stopping more plays for short or minimal gains and making more tackles for loss.
Though there were some slip-ups (like allowing the sluggish Nate Stanley to scramble for 8 yards on 3rd down), overall, the defense kept the Gophers in the game after making it look like they had taken themselves out of it.
9. Minnesota's division title and Rose Bowl hopes are not even close to dead.
Going into the weekend, the Gophers needed to win any two games to win the West. The loss to the Hawkeyes, however, makes things more straightforward, barring an unexpected result between Purdue and Wisconsin: Win the Axe, win the West.
Both oddsmakers and computers have the Gophers as heavy favorites against Northwestern, but the game against the Badgers looks like a near-coin flip.
To go to Pasadena, Minnesota must likely win out and see Ohio State blow out Penn State (which looks pretty likely). A similar fate likely awaits whoever wins the West, and the Buckeyes would be Playoff-bound. An 11-2 Minnesota should have the edge for a Rose Bowl bid over a 10-2 Penn State after the Gophers' win on Nov. 9. If not, a trip to the Orange Bowl or Cotton Bowl is on the table and would be a pretty good consolation prize.
The season's potential is not gone after one frustrating loss. There is still plenty for which to play, and the Gophers are good enough to take advantage of the opportunity.
10. That said, the Gophers need their quarterback.
On Minnesota's last drive, Epenesa sacked Morgan for an 8-yard loss. When Morgan got up looking "woozy and wobbly," Fleck decided he was done for the night, even while Morgan protested and while the Gophers had less than 2 minutes left to win the game.
(A side note: Fleck did the right thing by unconditionally keeping Morgan on the sideline. That may seem like an easy thing to say, but as recently as five years ago, an opposing coach in another Minnesota trophy game did not keep his quarterback on the sideline when it looked like he might have had a concussion.)
At his Tuesday press conference, Fleck was optimistic about Morgan's health but uncertain if he can play on Saturday. Predictions of who starts can only be guesses. If Morgan cannot play against Northwestern, it won't matter that much; Minnesota won't have to score a lot to win against one of college football's worst offenses.
But Morgan's health is vital to the Gophers' aspirations for the rest of the season. Cole Kramer and Jacob Clark have seen little action this season. Though whoever might play would have ample help from his linemen and skill players, starting a true freshman quarterback is bound to limit the offense's potential. That will definitely matter against Wisconsin's fearsome pass rush and, if the Gophers make it that far, Chase Young and Ohio State's defense. If Morgan is out for the last two games, it could lead to Minnesota's season ending with a disappointing aftertaste.
Next Game
There are few better bounceback opponents than Northwestern. Though Pat Fitzgerald's defense is strong, as per usual, his offense has looked hopeless against almost every team it has faced. The Wildcats are 2-8 overall and 0-7 in the Big Ten.
The problems have started at quarterback. Aidan Smith and former five-star prospect Hunter Johnson (a transfer from Clemson) have completed less than half their combined passes, thrown 13 interceptions, and taken 19 sacks. The Wildcats average an FBS-worst 4.3 yards per pass attempt, nearly a full yard behind 129th-ranked UMass. Even adjusting for opponent, Northwestern might have the nation's worst passing attack.
Johnson has dealt with a knee injury since late September, missing all of October and only reappearing for the Indiana game. He might play against Minnesota, but it's unlikely to matter.
Drake Anderson, Isaiah Bower, and Evan Hull have run the ball at a level closer to respectability, but Northwestern's 4.0 yards per carry still ranks just 91st in the country. The Wildcats offer no serious threat on offense.
The Northwestern front seven accumulate a lot of tackles for loss, led by senior defensive end Joe Gaziano, who has 12.5. Linebackers Chris Bergin, Paddy Fisher, and Blake Gallagher have combined for 14.5 TFLs. However, all those disruptive plays haven't translated to more than just a solid run defense.
The secondary, meanwhile, allows plenty of completions but allows the 11th-fewest yards per completion in FBS. The Wildcat pass defense is sure to be worse without starting safety Joe Newsome, who leads the team in pass breakups but is out for the rest of the season. Cam Ruiz and Trae Williams are fine corners, combining for 47.5 tackles, 10 pass breakups, and an interception. Whether they can contain the Gophers' star receivers with less support from their safeties is a major question, although its importance could be lessened with Kramer or Clark at quarterback.
It might be an unattractive win, but Minnesota should come away with a win nonetheless. Northwestern flat-out does not have the firepower to keep up with Minnesota, and that should keep this game from ever being competitive. If the Gophers can end things quickly and stay healthy for the big game in Week 14, they will have done what they need to do.
The problems have started at quarterback. Aidan Smith and former five-star prospect Hunter Johnson (a transfer from Clemson) have completed less than half their combined passes, thrown 13 interceptions, and taken 19 sacks. The Wildcats average an FBS-worst 4.3 yards per pass attempt, nearly a full yard behind 129th-ranked UMass. Even adjusting for opponent, Northwestern might have the nation's worst passing attack.
Johnson has dealt with a knee injury since late September, missing all of October and only reappearing for the Indiana game. He might play against Minnesota, but it's unlikely to matter.
Drake Anderson, Isaiah Bower, and Evan Hull have run the ball at a level closer to respectability, but Northwestern's 4.0 yards per carry still ranks just 91st in the country. The Wildcats offer no serious threat on offense.
The Northwestern front seven accumulate a lot of tackles for loss, led by senior defensive end Joe Gaziano, who has 12.5. Linebackers Chris Bergin, Paddy Fisher, and Blake Gallagher have combined for 14.5 TFLs. However, all those disruptive plays haven't translated to more than just a solid run defense.
The secondary, meanwhile, allows plenty of completions but allows the 11th-fewest yards per completion in FBS. The Wildcat pass defense is sure to be worse without starting safety Joe Newsome, who leads the team in pass breakups but is out for the rest of the season. Cam Ruiz and Trae Williams are fine corners, combining for 47.5 tackles, 10 pass breakups, and an interception. Whether they can contain the Gophers' star receivers with less support from their safeties is a major question, although its importance could be lessened with Kramer or Clark at quarterback.
It might be an unattractive win, but Minnesota should come away with a win nonetheless. Northwestern flat-out does not have the firepower to keep up with Minnesota, and that should keep this game from ever being competitive. If the Gophers can end things quickly and stay healthy for the big game in Week 14, they will have done what they need to do.
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