Midweek Review: Iowa 13-10 Minnesota

1. The Gophers' despair against the Hawkeyes continues.

In the 21st century, Minnesota is 4-18 against Iowa. Though Iowa has held the upper hand in this rivalry since hiring Hayden Fry in 1979, it's become as bad as ever for the Gophers since Kirk Ferentz replaced him. The Hawkeyes' current eight-game winning streak is the program's longest in the series. Previously, Iowa had never won more than five in a row.

What's more tormenting: The Gophers are coming up short in close games unlike in any period in this series. In the first 33 games between Iowa and Minnesota that were decided by 8 points or fewer, Minnesota went 17-14-2. In their current eight-game losing streak, they've lost six games by a single score.

The games are closer than at any other point in the history of the rivalry. The average margin of victory over the last eight years is 9.5 points. That is the lowest eight-game average margin in series history, regardless of victor. The closest any other eight-year stretch comes: Between 1961 and 1968, the average margin was 9.6 points. (Minnesota won six of those eight games.)

Entering the current millennium, Minnesota had won about 62 percent of the games between these two schools. The U of M's winning percentage against Iowa is currently 53 percent. It will take even more prolonged misfortune for Iowa to claim the series lead for the first time ever, but with each successive Minnesota loss, that comes closer and closer to reality.

This has been, in several ways, a historically agonizing run for Gopher fans. The closest thing to solace they can take is that we've seen the Gophers end a run like this in the recent past. But for now, they can only circle October 21, 2023 in their calendars and hope that that is the day Floyd of Rosedale returns to Minneapolis.

2. Late turnovers — those that were and were not — made the difference.

It was too predictable. Iowa has maybe the best defense in college football and maybe the worst offense in the Power Five. They live off of turnovers. If Minnesota was going to win on Saturday, it was by limiting mistakes, and by capitalizing on Iowa's mistakes.

Twice in the first half, Iowa put the ball on the ground. However, each time, it was a snap past Spencer Petras. The Hawkeyes lost yardage, but Petras fell on the ball. If there's any kind of fumble that is more likely to stay with the offense, it's probably a bad snap out of shotgun. Otherwise, most of the game passed without many turnover opportunities.

The fourth quarter changed all of that.

On a nearly 9-minute drive, the Gophers gained 84 yards on the ground. Mohamed Ibrahim carried the ball 13 times, gaining all but 65 of those yards. Facing 3rd-and-4 from within the Iowa red zone, the Gophers closed in on their first lead of the game. They gave the ball to Ibrahim again. He did the same thing he'd done all game: Behind good blocking, he patiently waited for a hole, made his cut, and pushed through. Then, a cruel twist.

As Ibrahim tried to go through Quinn Schulte's tackle, Jack Campbell dove in and knocked the ball loose. It was the fourth fumble of Ibrahim's career. Deontae Craig picked it up, and Iowa took over.

Minnesota had a chance to get the ball right back where they gave it away, though. Petras rolled out off of play action and tried to hit Leshon Williams in the flat. Petras missed. Williams' deflection took the ball right into Terell Smith's hands.

Smith dropped it. He didn't have much time to react, but this should have been an interception. Maybe, ironically, if he didn't take such a good route to make a hit on Williams, Smith would have caught the ball. But he didn't. The opportunity went wasted.

After another incomplete pass, the Hawks punted, starting the Gophers close to midfield. Twenty-two yards later, with the clock approaching 2 minutes, they faced another 3rd down, this time coming up on field goal range. With 7 yards to go, Athan Kaliakmanis dropped back to pass. The Hawkeyes secondary had everything covered, but Le'Meke Brockington had an inside step on Riley Moss. Moss kept right on Brockington's hip, but it looked like a well-placed pass might have a chance.

With such tight coverage, Kaliakmanis probably needed to put the ball on Brockington's body rather than in front of him. Moss very well might have broken it up anyway. The ball bounced fortuitously into Campbell's arms, and he ran it past midfield before going out of bounds.

Immediately, a big play put Iowa at the doorstep. A short run, then a medium-sized run, set up 3rd down. Minnesota stopped Williams short, and somehow the ball ended up on the ground. Mariano Sori-Marin immediately recovered. Except there was no way to tell whether the ball came out before Williams was down.

The stadium video board showed more angles than Fox's broadcast, but no shot was definitive. I lean toward Williams being down, but I genuinely have no idea. He landed on his blocker before hitting the ground, and Mason Richman fell over in just the right way to obstruct the best angle of the play. Maybe the ball really did pop out.

The call on the field was that he was down, however, so the call stood. Iowa kicked the game-winning field goal on the next snap.

These four moments represent a kind of symmetry: The Gophers' tailback pushed through contact, and in doing so, he gave the ball away. A Hawkeye did the same, but he held on just long enough to at least make it look like his team should keep the ball. A Gophers pass deflected of a receiver and into a Hawkeye's arms for an interception. A similar play had just happened the other way, but the rallying Gopher couldn't secure the catch.

For Minnesota, it was tragic poetry. The bounces in the fourth quarter gave their foes life when they most needed it, in turn burying the Gophers.

3. Ibrahim erred once in what was otherwise the best game of his career.

It was the most yardage he'd ever put up in a game. It was the 4th-most single-game rushing yards in program history, and the most any Gopher had ever totaled against Iowa. It was the most yards a single player for any team has run for against Iowa since LeShon Johnson of Northern Illinois in 1993.

Yet Ibrahim's effort wasn't enough. That fact owes a lot to how single-minded the Gophers are offensively, how they've failed to get more out of the passing game, and how conservative their head coach is, but I've written plenty on that. (And I'll have a bit more on it in a moment.) We've been over the turnovers that swung this game. Here, I want to acknowledge Mohamed Ibrahim's greatness.

It requires exceptional agility and balance to make the above play happen. Ibrahim turned it from a loss into a 3rd-and-2 conversion, and he did it so effortlessly. There were several plays like this throughout the night, where Ibrahim spotted a crease few other players could, changed directions, made a defender miss, and fell forward for a gain. He is an exceptional player, but even by his standards, this was an exceptional performance: 39 carries, 263 yards, and a touchdown.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
line yards and success rate are via
collegefootballdata.com.

Just one Ibrahim carry ended at or behind the line. That owes plenty to the Minnesota line, of course. Iowa has maybe the best defense in college football. Even granting that the secondary is where the Hawks are most dangerous, the Gophers weren't supposed to do this kind of damage on the ground.

The key difference between Saturday and other great Ibrahim games is how many big runs he broke off. Typically, whatever gains he can make are limited. He's not a track star, but the main reason he doesn't explode isn't his speed: It's how little room he has. The offensive line, if it does its job, can only do so much to spring him when the other team has so many bodies in the way.

But Minnesota found a way through. Five of Ibrahim's runs gained at least 10 yards. Here was the first, showing how running split wide zone created space on the edge:

As Brevyn Spann-Ford motioned across the formation, Schulte shuffled a couple of yards to his left, making it harder for him to defend an outside run. He and Moss, who was tracking Daniel Jackson's route inside, got caught in traffic as the Gophers' linemen climbed to the second level with ease. Left tackle Aireontae Ersery kicked out the edge defender, meanwhile, ensuring a massive hole in the B-gap.

The U of M was comfortably better at the line of scrimmage. When Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker tried to blow up the play with a cornerback blitz, Ibrahim just had to make one move to find open space.

Ibrahim's relative lack of pace was a significant reason he never took one of these runs to the house, but he reaches his top-end speed so quickly that all he often needs is the smallest crack to break off a big run.

Ibrahim needs 128 more yards to become the program's all-time leading rusher. He's run for at least that many yards in all but three appearances this season. Due to the load he's borne this season, and with the NFL Draft in April, it would not be a surprise if Ibrahim sits out Minnesota's bowl game. If he does, that will make the game at Wisconsin his final appearance in a Gophers uniform.

Savor it. You are unlikely to ever see a player like him again in maroon and gold.

4. P.J. Fleck never learns.

After going 4-for-4 in power rushing opportunities on Saturday (3rd- or 4th-and-2 or shorter), Minnesota has converted 42 of 45 such chances this season. Just over one-tenth of the team's rushing attempts across all situations have failed to gain yardage, making them one of the top teams in FBS at avoiding losses on the ground. Ibrahim is as adept at any running back in the game at fighting through contact, even when the other team knows what's coming. There may not be a team in the country better equipped to convert on 4th-and-short.

Not only that: Iowa, for all their defensive might, has a relative weak spot along the line. The Hawkeyes entered the game ranked just 76th in stuff rate. Their starting defensive linemen average 269 pounds, nearly 50 pounds lighter than the average U of M offensive lineman. If there was one situation where the Gophers had a clear advantage, it was when in short yardage. In a close game, one with so few possessions, being able to maximize the drives you get, and to take full advantage of scoring opportunities, becomes even more vital.

In the first half, Fleck did not act like it.

Despite losing this very game a year ago because of how he approached 4th down, Fleck was again too conservative. Punting on 4th-and-3 from between the 40s is debatable, but at this point there is no good reason for this team to kick with 1 yard to gain.

Doing so from the 16-yard line, with a chance to go ahead before halftime, is a critical failure of coaching. Against one of the best defenses in the country, the Gophers were not guaranteed many forays into the red zone. In fact, the rest of the game, they made it to within Iowa's 20-yard line just twice. Fleck turned down the chance at a 4-point lead for a chance at making it "0-0" again. Matthew Trickett missing his field goal was not the most likely outcome, but it was perhaps the deserved one.

Fleck made the right choices on the game's remaining 4th downs, but that was partly because he didn't get the chance to make another bad choice. On Kaliakmanis' interception, Minnesota could have tried to set up a more manageable 4th down. That they did not take that route is fine — it was going to be hard to convert 3rd-and-7, but offenses do it often. The Gophers didn't, and they suffered the worst possible consequence. That's just football.

But on Monday, Fleck said that if Minnesota had seen 4th down, he likely would have punted. The failed 3rd down happened on Iowa's 33-yard line. Kicking a 50-yard field goal on a fairly windy evening is probably not the best move, but as I've said numerous times before: Punting from that far into opposing territory is not worth it. If 3rd down ended in an completion, a perfect punt would have netted just 32 yards. A touchback is much more likely. From that spot on the field, especially facing a struggling offense, there is no point in punting.

But we don't need to linger on the hypothetical when for years now, Fleck has repeatedly made the wrong decisions on 4th down. If he has changed at all, he's only become even more risk-averse. For all his strengths as a program manager, which is what matters most for a college head coach, Fleck undermines himself as a game manager. It will keep costing his team until he realizes the problem. His track record, and his defensiveness over strategy in press conferences, suggests that realization will never come.

5. The passing game was underutilized but had its problems.

As singular as Ibrahim's performance was, the Gophers should have made a larger effort to complement him with the passing attack. Before their final drive, which they started with 28 seconds left, Kaliakmanis threw just a dozen passes. Not one of his targets was farther than 16 yards downfield.

Minnesota's young quarterback threw mostly over the middle, hitting Jackson for a couple of big plays and converting a 3rd-and-9 with a completion to Brockington. Slants and other quick throws worked.

Plays that took longer to develop ran into problems. The Hawks didn't blitz much but often were in Kaliakmanis' face; Pro Football Focus credits them with pressures on eight of his 17 dropbacks.

A couple of times, the pressure forced Kaliakmanis to try throws he shouldn't have. On one such instance, it cost Minnesota a touchdown. Facing 3rd-and-1, the Gophers ran play-action off the same tight end motion they'd already used on split zone several times. Iowa's Seth Benson tracked Spann-Ford down the line before stepping up to pressure Kaliakmanis. In that instant, when Benson committed to the quarterback, Spann-Ford was wide open.

But Kaliakmanis, thinking Benson had taken away the play, turned his eyes to the middle of the field. With now three Hawkeyes closing in on him (Kaevon Merriweather, the fourth defender in the above screenshot, pulled away in a late effort to catch up with Spann-Ford), he threw an incompletion to a well-covered Brockington. With the tiniest bit more patience from their quarterback, the Gophers could have taken the lead. Instead, they faced 4th down. We know what happened from there.

6. Iowa didn't have a perfect special teams performance but still won the third phase of the game.

Minnesota's average starting field position in this game was barely beyond their own 20-yard line. The main reason, predictably, was Tory Taylor. While Taylor has been better — we must acknowledge the underwhelming punt that put Minnesota near midfield in the fourth quarter — it's hard to quibble with his overall performance. The Gophers started at the 15-yard line or worse after four of his five punts. Twice, that meant starting just 3 yards from their own end zone. Taylor and his coverage unit, in particular Cooper DeJean, made life a lot harder for the Minnesota offense.

The Gophers' special teams unit needed to respond to the test in front of it. Not necessarily to keep pace with the Hawkeyes, whose special teams are excellent, but just to lessen their impact. The Gophers were instead rather average.

Mark Crawford averaged 39.7 yards per punt, which is not an abysmal figure, but he came up short in two ways: First, not one Crawford punt came down within the opposing 20-yard line. Second, he couldn't pair that with enough hang time to prevent returns.

DeJean's 16-yard return in the third quarter set up Iowa with their best field position to that point. They didn't capitalize on that by scoring (or even picking up a new set of downs), but it was a prime spot on the field for Taylor to pin Minnesota deep.

Quentin Redding was not as effective as DeJean. Redding's three kick returns were fine enough and nothing more. If he made any mistake, it was letting Taylor's fourth-quarter punt bounce in front of him, giving up a handful of yards before being immediately tackled upon fielding it at the 3.

Iowa also got a better performance out of their placekicker. Drew Stevens hit 38- and 21-yard attempts; Trickett converted from 27 yards in the third quarter after missing from 34 just before halftime. Again, Trickett's miss shouldn't have even happened because Fleck should have gone for it on 4th down, but the miss still happened, and in a 3-point game, it made a difference.

7. Momentary lapses again burned the U of M defense.

In a game where they would be hard to come by, explosive plays were always going to be critical. Iowa got their first on their opening play.

That Minnesota sent Cody Lindenberg on a blitz opened a bit of space in the second level. The play design, combined with shaky execution of man coverage, did the rest. Arland Bruce IV's jet motion drew Tyler Nubin across the field. By the looks of it, Mariano Sori-Marin was responsible for tight end Sam LaPorta. When LaPorta's initial step suggested he was blocking for a swing pass to Bruce, Sori-Marin followed the route play to the flat. That gave a clear lane for LaPorta when he broke into the middle of the field, with two linemen ahead of him to deal with a single deep safety.

Iowa's drive immediately stalled, but they still came away with a field goal. But another coverage bust, and another big play for LaPorta, led to a touchdown on the Hawkeyes' next drive. On 4th-and-2, Petras faked to Gavin Williams and just avoided another blitzing Gopher. LaPorta, having drifted across the field, was wide open after Lindenberg bit hard on play-action.

Iowa landed the final blow, once again with a tight end, and once again off play-action, in the fourth quarter. All three Minnesota linebackers, and most of all safety Jordan Howden, committed fully to stopping the run once Petras turned his back. When Petras looked up, he had no problem finding Luke Lachey.

Iowa kicked the game-winning field goal on the ensuing set of downs, leaving Minnesota half a minute to save themselves.

The Hawkeyes created a few more chunk plays, but these three were the most damaging. According to Game on Paper, they were the three most valuable Iowa offensive snaps, adding a combined 8.9 expected points.

For the most part, Minnesota defended the pass well. The Gophers needed to generate more pressure than they did, but the secondary played sound coverage and made tackles. Those three breaks accounted for more than half of Petras' yardage.

However, that's been a recurring theme with this year's defense, from Purdue to Illinois to Penn State: putting up a good fight and keeping the game within reach, only to snap in catastrophic fashion.

8. Iowa's successes on the ground were rare and not as damaging.

None of the Hawkeyes' biggest plays, fortunately, ended in touchdowns, which gave the Gophers opportunities to respond and limit the damage on the scoreboard. The red zone is an area where this defense has excelled: Through Saturday, Minnesota has allowed the 13th-fewest points per scoring opportunity in FBS (excluding garbage time; per collegefootballdata.com). The team's linebackers and safeties are excellent at stopping the run, and the Gophers haven't faced many teams who can pass near the goal line.

Between their own mistakes and the Gophers' fortitude, the Hawkeyes turned five trips beyond the Minnesota 40-yard line into just 13 points. That should mean a Gophers win most weeks.

The Gophers' front did its job all over the field, though. Iowa's offensive line has been unimpressive this year, and Minnesota has shown repeatedly they can stop the run. Here, the Hawks tried running power and got nowhere:

Kyler Baugh won his battle to force Leshon Williams outside, Thomas Rush quickly disposed of the pulling Connor Colby, and Lindenberg arrived quickly to help Rush clean up.

Iowa frequently got nothing up front. Six of their 23 designed runs gained 0 yards or lost yardage. The only team to see a larger share of their runs fail to gain yardage against Minnesota this season: Western Illinois.

Just to cement the point, here's another Iowa run that went nowhere.

Officially, this went for 1 yard.

Baugh got solo credit for the tackle here, tossing aside Nick DeJong to bring down the ballcarrier for minimal gain. If Baugh didn't make the play, though, there was no shortage of Gophers in the vicinity. Howden stormed in to fill from his safety position unblocked. Tight end Addison Ostrenga did not climb nearly fast enough to cut off Sori-Marin. Trill Carter had shed his man. This play was dead on arrival in several ways.

Minnesota defends the run exceptionally well as a team, and they showed that again and again in this game.

These stats do include the two fumbled snaps.

9. Minnesota fought injuries throughout the game.

On five separate occasions, an injury stopped play. Each time, it was for a Gopher. In the cases of Ersery and Donald Willis, those injuries did not end up game-ending. That was not true for the other three injured players, whose absences could create challenging situations entering the season's final week.

Braelen Oliver left in the first quarter after landing awkwardly on a blitz. Oliver plays some Will in passing situations or replaces the nickelback as Minnesota's third linebacker. Willis normally rotates into that role, but if his own injury proves worse than it initially though or recurs, that would complicate matters. One of Derik LeCaptain or Josh Aune is presumably the next man up, should Willis be unavailable as well.

Lucas Finnessy had to be carted off after being shoved to the ground rushing a punt. In addition to his special teams duties, Finnessy had been covering as the second-string rush end with Danny Sriggow out of the lineup.

In response to Finnessy's injury, the Gophers deployed Rush on every remaining defensive snap against Iowa. They probably cannot do that for a full game, so it will be worth watching what solution to their shorthandedness the Gophers pursue. Austin Booker, as best we can tell, is healthy, but he hasn't gotten a meaningful snap all season. Perhaps they try playing two of their 5-technique ends at the same time; Jah Joyner doesn't have coverage experience but could spell Rush as a pass rush specialist while Jalen Logan-Redding maintains his usual spot on the other side. This would also increase the size of the defensive line, which can always help against Wisconsin.

Because Brockington's injury, meanwhile, occurred so close to the end of the game, it's hard to guess how severe it was. Dylan Wright, whom Brockington has supplanted on the depth chart, was Minnesota's third receiver on the last drive of the game. Wright, an outside receiver like Brockington, would probably see more reps. Depending on the coaches' level of trust in Wright, though, they could increase Clay Geary's playing time. Mixing a mystery guest into the rotation — Kristen Hoskins or Ike White, for example — seems unlikely.

10. Minnesota's chances in the Big Ten West were already practically over, but the Gophers are now mathematically eliminated.

The two teams tied for 1st going into the final week have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Minnesota, so the highest the Gophers can finish in the Big Ten West is 3rd place. That would require Illinois losing to Northwestern, though, as well as a win in Madison this Saturday. Regardless, in college football's messiest division, Minnesota will finish somewhere in the middle. There's no Big Ten Championship appearance in store, and certainly no bowl trip beyond that that's terribly appealing.

Such an outcome is not of place in the larger context of program history, but it will be remembered as a missed opportunity for those who experienced it. In such a muddled race, any of the West's five decent but flawed teams had a real chance to win the division. The Gophers could not overcome their flaws, and no great prize awaits them on the other side, even though it was within reach.

Next Game

There is one more game, of course, and it is never a small thing. There's no keeping Wisconsin out of a bowl after the Badgers' come-from-behind 15-14 win at Nebraska last week, but Saturday presents an opportunity to plant some existential doubt about interim head coach Jim Leonhard, to win consecutive games over the Badgers for the first time since the mid-90s, and to improve the Gophers' positioning for bowl season. 

A year ago, Minnesota won back Paul Bunyan's Axe on the strength of their defense. They sold out to stop Braelon Allen, daring beleaguered quarterback Graham Mertz to beat them, and it worked. Wisconsin rushed for just 62 yards, and Mertz was inaccurate and out of sync with his receivers. In a hard-hitting game, the Badgers couldn't answer when the Gophers' offense broke through.

This season, Mertz has been better. Not great, mind you — he's completed 40.8 percent of his passes since the start of November — but better overall. He ranks 3rd in the Big Ten with 19 passing touchdowns and is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, the highest mark of his career. He's beat up on some bad teams, but improvement is improvement. He can deliver some strikes on the run, and he's completing more deep passes than in years past.

Mertz hasn't shed his old self, though. You can partially attribute his poor recent stat lines to the weather in the Midwest, and to playing a game at Kinnick Stadium. But even in more manageable conditions, he can make staggering mistakes. Mertz will force passes into windows he shouldn't, throw where there's no receiver, or simply put the ball in the wrong place. His lows are just as low as they ever were.

If Minnesota can generate pressure, Mertz could hand them the game. The good news is that the Wisconsin offensive line is fathoms below its usual standard. Mertz has taken 23 sacks. Allen and his cohorts in the backfield gain a lot of their yardage through patience and strength rather than by finding open holes — because those holes often don't exist. Three underclassmen start on the line, with only two holdovers from last year. (Technically, a third starter returned as well, but he was relegated to backup duty midway through the season.) The Gophers' front, if it plays like it normally does, should stand up to the Badgers' blockers.

The fresh challenge facing the Gophers: Allen isn't alone. A year ago, he became the No. 1 tailback because of an injury crisis. Two of the normal running backs Allen replaced, Chez Mellusi and Isaac Guerendo, are now back in the rotation and quite capable in their own right. All three are well-built and difficult to bring down. Strong tackling is again a must.

Minnesota will have faced worse receiving groups this season, but it is fair to say Wisconsin is lacking star power. Receptions leader Chimere Dike has the speed to turn his short targets into meaningful gains, and Skyler Bell and Keontez Lewis are the deep options. They don't always create separation, however, which contributes to Mertz's sack problems.

Notably missing is a threat at tight end. The only tight end with a touchdown this season, Clay Cundiff, is out for the season after injuring his leg against Ohio State. Jack Eschenbach has a dozen catches this year; Hayden Rucci and Cole Dakovich have four total catches in their college careers. The Gophers need to keep the lid on the secondary, but they should contain the UW passing game for the most part.

Wisconsin's defense has taken a step back from prior seasons, having graduated a number of key players and suffered a few injuries along the way. Most of the injuries have passed, but the Badgers will be without one of the top pass rushers in America for the first half after outside linebacker Nick Herbig received a second-half ejection for targeting last week. Herbig's 11.0 sacks are by far the most on the team; no other Badger has more than 4.0. While he's out, the Gophers will have more time to throw the ball.

Wisconsin's transfer-laden secondary may let them do that anyway, though. Opponents are averaging 6.7 yards per pass attempt, which does not count as prolific but places Wisconsin 40th in FBS in that statistic. Safety John Torchio, who has intercepted five passes and broken up five more, has been the team's most disruptive defensive back but has tackling problems. According to PFF, he's missed a quarter of his career tackle attempts.

The Wisconsin front seven is as tough as ever. The Badgers have allowed the 6th-fewest yards per non-sack carry in FBS, and it's because they always replenish their ranks around the line of scrimmage. Veteran lineman Keeanu Benton has 8.0 tackles for loss on the year, which is always an achievement for a nose tackle. Benton will present a serious challenge for John Michael Schmitz.

There is no shortage of additional players who can make plays in the backfield as well: Ends Rodas Johnson and James Thompson Jr. have combined for 10.0 TFLs; linebackers Maema Njongmeta and C.J. Goetz total 17.0. This defense has teeth.

I'm certain the Gophers will come out running the ball straight into those teeth. Ibrahim's performance against the Hawkeyes has probably emboldened Fleck's coaching staff further to barge through high-level run defenses rather than try to keep them off-balance. But there's a real chance Wisconsin's offense won't be as inept as it was a year ago, and Minnesota will have to present a second pitch. If the Gophers can't or won't throw the ball, this could be another tight, low-scoring game that is decided on one or two pivotal moments.