Midweek Review: Iowa 35-7 Minnesota

There's no sugarcoating, sidestepping, or excusing it: That game sucked.

Iowa dominated Minnesota on the ground and on defense, and the Floyd of Rosedale will stay south for a sixth straight year. The Gophers have one win at the halfway point of the abbreviated regular season, and they likely won't get more than a couple more by the end. No sane observer is questioning the program's direction or retroactively labeling its 2019 breakthrough as a fluke, but it is abundantly clear that in this moment, Minnesota is too inconsistent and too young to contend for a while.

1. Tanner Morgan had his worst game as a Gopher.

This is Morgan's third year as Minnesota's starting quarterback, and most of his performances have been at least decent. He hasn't typically been asked to play at an elite level, and in some cases he was barely needed at all. But he's had few outright stinkers.

Morgan's performance Friday qualifies not only as a poor performance but as the nadir of his college career. In a game in which he threw a meaningful number of passes, Morgan had never before posted a sub-50 completion percentage or a passer rating below 100; he did both against Iowa. It was also just his second two-interception game at Minnesota.

He threw in front of his receivers:

He overthrew them:

He underthrew them:

And on top of all that, he was sacked four times. Some of it was due to great coverage; even when the Hawkeyes didn't get to Morgan, they took away his options downfield and forced him to either hold onto the ball or attempt low-percentage throws.

As a result, the Gophers couldn't get anything going downfield. Morgan completed five of 15 passes of 10 yards or more. In 2019, he completed 61.6 percent of such passes. The short game was the only part of the passing attack that consistently worked.

For the season, Morgan is averaging 6.0 net yards per attempt. Though the small sample of an abbreviated, conference-only schedule is helping fuel some hot takes (how much better would his numbers look after tuneup games against Florida Atlantic and Tennessee Tech?), it is worrisome that even against the bad defenses on their schedule, Morgan and the Minnesota passing game haven't excelled. Morgan's starting job shouldn't be in jeopardy, but he hasn't met expectations this season, and the challenges aren't about to go away. On the other side of the Purdue game, Minnesota faces two defenses ranked in the top five of SP+. For the Gophers to finish .500, Morgan must rebound from this performance in a big way.

2. Against one of the nation's best run defenses, Minnesota's rushing attack was contained.

It wasn't that the Gophers couldn't run the ball at all. Other teams couldn't against Iowa, but that wasn't the case for Minnesota. They had just two carries stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, and they posted above-average efficiency metrics. It's just that they couldn't get to the second level.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
Line Yards and Success Rate are via
collegefootballdata.com

Mohamed Ibrahim's longest carry was for 13 yards, which was one of three runs he had for double-digit yards. For Minnesota, running the ball frequently looked like this:

Though the Hawkeyes didn't create negative plays, they prevented the few gains they allowed from turning into big ones. They didn't let many lanes open, and they quickly closed those that opened. While the Gophers' offense hasn't been the most explosive this season, they succeeded on the ground against Maryland and Illinois in part by achieving at least an average level of explosiveness.

The Gophers might have gotten more out of the run game if they had brought in a sixth lineman more often. They went to a six-man line nine times at Illinois, which I thought might foreshadow an increase in its use. However, they only did so once on Friday, and it was on a short-yardage situation that brought out the Green Line package. Though the Gophers' tight ends are reliable enough blockers, an extra lineman might have opened bigger holes and offered more protection for Morgan on dropbacks. Iowa wasn't cracking against traditional personnel groupings. Minnesota could have tried something different.

Regardless, it was a disappointing showing for an offense that leans heavily on the run. P.J. Fleck talks about the importance of "balance" and a productive ground game in the Big Ten (which is debatable), but performances like that aren't enough in any conference.

3. An unsuccessful 3rd down in the third quarter played a major role in ending Minnesota's chances of a comeback.

Alright, let's just get to it.

This playcall by co-offensive coordinator Mike Sanford Jr. drew a lot of criticism on Twitter. That criticism was not totally fair.

Running the ball is in itself not a bad decision on 3rd-and-6. It's technically a passing down, but it's not so long that you can't convert without a huge run. If you can spread out the defense with your formation, you can get a favorable box count. The Gophers did just that, and Iowa presented a five-man box. There was one Minnesota blocker for every box defender.

At the very least, the Gophers should have gained a couple yards, and that would have set up a manageable 4th down — which Fleck said after the game was the intention. That thinking made sense, especially since the Gophers picked up 5 yards on a 3rd-and-3 outside run away from trips earlier that drive. The reason it didn't work on 3rd-and-6 is that the offensive line didn't do its job, particularly left guard Axel Ruschmeyer.

So this was not remotely a horrible playcall. It doesn't seem optimal, though, for two reasons I can see:

1. I don't like running outside zone to the boundary because of how little space the running back has. That said, Minnesota has had success going to the boundary both in 2020 and 2019. Additionally, Iowa's two outermost defenders were the left end and the boundary corner, the latter of whom was nowhere near the play after following Chris Autman-Bell downfield. There was space for Ibrahim if he could get to the edge. But the Hawkeyes blew this play up by winning inside, so he couldn't.

2. Against Iowa's defense, even facing an ideal look, you shouldn't count on getting 1 yard on the ground, let alone 6. Minnesota already had ample evidence of that.

Even then, I don't hate the call — and I generally think the Gophers run too much, especially on passing downs. If the play had gained a couple yards, it wouldn't have been a major point of discussion. But it lost yards due to poor execution, Jack Koerner blocked Brock Walker's field goal attempt, and shortly thereafter, Iowa put the game out of reach.

4. A passing attack centered around one receiver cannot consistently succeed — even if that receiver is Rashod Bateman.

In 2019, Tyler Johnson was Minnesota's most targeted receiver. Morgan threw to him on 39.0 percent of his passes. Bateman was second on the team with a 30.5 percent target rate.

In 2020, Bateman's target rate is up to 46.2 percent, and second-place Chris Autman-Bell's 18.3 percent isn't even half that figure. After those two, Morgan's favorite target is Ibrahim (9.6 percent), who almost never is more than a checkdown option. Through the air, the Gophers have one player they consistently trust, and that's Bateman.

To a degree, it makes sense to give Bateman the ball so much. He's one of college football's best receivers and easily Minnesota's best player. Even with all the attention he draws, he gets open and can do things like this:

The problem is that as good as he is, Bateman can't do it all alone. Autman-Bell has become the preferred deep target as Bateman gets more short and intermediate passes from the slot, but as I covered last week, Minnesota's isn't often going deep anymore. Most of the time he is on the field, Daniel Jackson is a prop. Tight ends have caught three passes. So when Morgan drops back, it's obvious where the ball is going. The threat of Bateman should create opportunities for the secondary options, but when the Gophers don't use those options, that makes it harder for Bateman to make plays and therefore harder on themselves. Their approach needs to change.

5. The Hawkeye's offensive line did what it wanted against the Gophers. 

Iowa's biggest threats offensively are running backs Tyler Goodson and Mekhi Sargent, who have helped give the team a touch of explosiveness. The Iowa line had produced middling efficiency stats entering the Minnesota game, but when the Hawkeyes had gotten space against their first three opponents, they broke off for big runs.

It was paramount, then, that Minnesota limit Goodson and Sargent from burning them in the open field. Minnesota's young defense had major problems preventing explosive runs against Michigan and Maryland. To get another body in the box and match the Hawkeyes' personnel, the Gophers used a 4-3 for most of the game instead of their usual 4-2-5.

And in a way, it kind of worked. Though both backs broke a couple big runs, those instances were rare enough that Iowa's explosiveness metrics were rather mediocre. According to collegefootballdata.com, Iowa's Predicted Points Added on successful rushing plays was 0.96 — which over a full season would have ranked 80th in FBS last year. In this respect, the Gophers succeeded in run defense.

They entirely failed otherwise.

These stats do not exclude garbage time.

Nearly two-thirds of Iowa's runs gained at least 4 yards, and just two attempts failed to go past the line of scrimmage. Iowa's rushing Success Rate of 64 percent is the highest by a Minnesota opponent since Illinois exactly matched it in 2018. (And by exactly, I mean exactly: without rounding, both teams hit 63.63 percent.) The Hawkeyes didn't get explosive runs, but they didn't need explosive runs because the Gophers weren't at all stopping them.

Who is to blame for such a calamitous performance? Well, everyone.

Here is James Gordon IV moving too slowly to fill the C gap:

Here are Gordon and Thomas Rush getting dominated, Mariano Sori-Marin missing Sargent after getting driven back, and Coney Durr and Gordon finally dragging down Sargent 5 yards after Durr first hit him:

Here are Iowa's linemen pancaking Boye Mafe and Sori-Marin:

Here is Josh Aune allowing a touchdown after failing to set the edge:

Here is Spencer Petras catching DeAngelo Carter and Micah Dew-Treadway off guard with a surprise quarterback sneak:

And all of these plays were just in the first half, while the game was still competitive. At the end of the third quarter, Goodson got a 45-yarder that could have been called a backbreaker if Iowa hadn't already slowly crushed Minnesota into meal for the previous 44 minutes.

When your opponent so definitively exhibits how much stronger and capable they are than you, and you know your best hope to avoid repeating that outcome in the future is to just keep practicing and playing, it's hard to prescribe an immediate solution. Minnesota's defense is dreadful — hardly devoid of talent and not forever hopeless, but for the time being dreadful. It's not incapable of putting in performances decent enough to win games (see the Illinois game), but the climb to competency is steep.

6. Iowa's passing game demonstrated the importance of putting them behind schedule.

Iowa's offense has been poor on passing downs, and a big reason is that they aren't good at passing the ball. As a result, a major key to this game was how much of a role Petras needed to play. It turned out that that role was minimal; he only threw 18 passes.

When he did throw, he wasn't very successful. His 50 percent completion rate, 12.3 yards per completion, and interception to Gordon were further proof that the Hawkeyes' passing game cannot yet carry them to wins.

If the Gophers were going to win this game, especially with their offensive problems, their defense needed to make the Hawkeyes throw the ball. The fact that Iowa didn't have to throw made one of their biggest disadvantages irrelevant, which in turn made the game a tougher for Minnesota.

7. Minnesota heavily lost the field position game.

Since the special teams disaster that was the Michigan game, as Minnesota slowly regained members of the specialist group, their field position margin improved. By average starting field position, they essentially tied Maryland and finished with more than a 5-yard advantage over Illinois.

But that didn't hold against Iowa. On average, the Gophers started 19.9 yards from their own end zone; just twice did they start farther downfield than the 25-yard line. The Hawkeyes, meanwhile, had an average starting field position 30.2 yards away from their end zone. (This excludes the drive at the end of the game that consisted of a kneeldown.)

Iowa's average starting field position was a couple yards better on punts, and it wasn't entirely because the Gophers were punting from so far within their own territory. Mark Crawford's six punts traveled an average of 36.8 yards, and his longest of the night traveled just 44 yards. It was a disappointing follow-up to Crawford's debut at Illinois last week. The Gophers cannot have that output become a trend.

8. Minnesota usually avoids penalties, but they had a disconcerting first-half flareup.

At the midway point, the Gophers had accumulated 75 penalty yards on seven infractions, which nearly doubled their totals from the first three games. The most costly penalties came on the same play, Gordon's interception, when a Sori-Marin blindside block and Fleck unsportsmanlike conduct foul (according to him, for running onto the field) moved Minnesota from Iowa's 25-yard line to their own 45. That 30-yard setback might have kept Minnesota from scoring. On Iowa's next drive, Sori-Marin was ejected for targeting, forcing the Gophers to go the rest of the game without their most experienced linebacker.

Of course, the penalties almost completely went away for both sides in the second half; the only penalty assessed was 10 yards for holding on Conner Olson. But for the first half hour, the Gophers set themselves back with an uncharacteristic lack of discipline.

9. Though not a perfect player, Mafe is so far justifying his preseason hype as a pass rusher.

One of Minnesota's biggest losses coming into the season was Carter Coughlin, a four-year letterman and three-year starter at rush end. Coughlin led the 2019 Gophers in havoc plays (with 15.5) and made 22.5 sacks over his college career, the third-most in program history. You don't easily replace a force like him on your defensive line.

Mafe hasn't quite replaced Coughlin, but the Gophers' new starting rush end has been their most disruptive defensive player through four games. His 6.5 havoc plays are most on the team, which includes his 3.5 sacks. (Thanks to Zach VanValkenburg's big night, Mafe has lost sole possession of the conference lead in sacks but still shares it with VanValkenburg.) Against Iowa, he made his second pass breakup of the year and (officially) hurried Petras once.

For clarity's sake: This was the pass breakup.

Though extrapolation isn't analytically sound, it's worth noting that in a 12-game season, Mafe would be on pace for 19.5 havoc plays. If he can improve his run defense, he could become the Big Ten's top defensive end. As is, he's Minnesota's top defensive playmaker.

10. The rest of the 2020 season is about development.

According to Massey Ratings, the Gophers have between a 48- and 57-percent chance of winning against each of Purdue, Northwestern, and Nebraska; their win probability against Wisconsin is just 18 percent. One would be justified in having a bleaker view of their chances in those four games. At this point, finishing the regular season at 4-4 would count as a success.

The reality at the halfway point of the 2020 season is that there's not much more for which to play. But there is time to make 2021 and 2022 better.

On offense, the Gophers are looking at a receiving corps next year consisting of Autman-Bell, Jackson, and a huge group of inexperienced underclassmen. Brown-Stephens, Douglas Emilien, Jonathan Mann, Nnamdi Adim-Madumere, and the other receivers who may see an increased role next season should be seeing the field now. The two returning regulars should be getting more targets so they are more prepared for Bateman's absence.

Many of the Minnesota defense's youngsters, meanwhile, have already been receiving playing time. I noted in last week's Midweek Review how the linebacker rotation had changed to give younger players more snaps. If they want to, the Gophers could go deeper into the depth chart and give highly rated true freshmen Itayvion Brown and Jaqwondis Burns opportunities. On Friday, true freshman Michael Dixon played some safety, taking the jump from from special teams duty.

Continuity and experience are vital in college football. This is even truer for teams like Minnesota, who don't consistently sign blue-chippers that are more likely to step in and immediately play well. Whatever they can do to give their younger players more experience will improve their long-term prospects.

Next Game

Purdue's 2019 was torpedoed by injuries at key positions, including to quarterback Elijah Sindelar and star receiver Rondale Moore, whose seasons ended on the same play against Minnesota. Sindelar declined to use the medical redshirt he gained after a prior injury and instead became an engineer, meaning Aidan O'Connell is the Boilermakers' starter. Moore is back after initially opting out of this season, but he has yet to play a snap due to an undisclosed injury.

Fortunately for the Boilermakers, O'Connell has had support from his skill players. David Bell was a 1,000-yard receiver last season and has four touchdowns through three games, and fellow true sophomore Milton Wright has nearly matched his 2019 stats. Tank of a running back Zander Horvath has accounted for nearly 90 percent of the Boilermakers' rushing attempts and validated his coaches' trust by repeatedly running over defenders.

The first problem, however, is O'Connell. He presents no rushing threat, and his solid 64.7 percent completion rate hides the fact he has been sacked nine times and averages 10.4 yards per attempt. He likely won't be the worst quarterback the Gophers see this year, but he's among the candidates.

The second problem: Purdue's offensive line has been woeful. In most of Football Outsiders' offensive line stats, Purdue ranks in the bottom 20 of FBS. According to collegefootballdata.com, their Success Rate on rushing attempts is 34 percent. Though two of their three games were against top defenses (Iowa and Northwestern), those figures are too ghastly to write off. Even while acknowledging Horvath's presence, one has to think the Boilermakers' rushing attack presents a respite for the Gophers' defense.

Defensive coordinator Bob Diaco's unit is not especially strong but so far looks better than it has in prior seasons. Opponents have averaged 2.9 yards per non-sack carry and 7.1 yards per passing attempt, each of which is a respectable figure.

The thing is that those numbers came against teams without very threatening offenses. And star end George Karlaftis has already missed the most recent game with an undisclosed injury. The Boilermakers' 121st-ranked pass rush desperately needs Karlaftis to participate against the Gophers, or Morgan will have all day to throw.

Leading the Purdue secondary is corner Dedrick Mackey, who defensed 10 passes last season and has broken up another couple this season. No other defensive back has an extensive track record of disruption, but the pass defense has held up well enough so far. But again: It hasn't encountered a passing attack like Minnesota's, which, while imperfect, is still highly effective most weeks.

In run defense, there are three players to note. The first is tackle Lorenzo Neal, who missed 2019 with a torn ACL and is back for a final auditioning for the NFL. He doesn't have the stats to show for it, but he clogs plenty of gaps and is a problem for interior O-linemen. Another tackle, junior college transfer DaMarucs Mitchell, leads the Boilermakers with 7.0 havoc plays, mainly the product of his 5.0 TFLs. And linebacker and edge rusher Derrick Barnes already has 21.5 tackles on the season. Barnes was the team's most disruptive defender last season with 11.0 tackles for loss, two pass breakups, and a forced fumble. Those three have played significant roles in keeping opponents from seeing much success on the ground.

But I'm inclined to think that Purdue's defensive stats are padded by playing a fairly manageable set of opponents in their first three games. This is probably a decent defense, but Minnesota should be able to move the ball pretty efficiently. If the defense can put in even a mediocre performance against a bad line and a subpar quarterback, that will be enough for the Gophers to win on Friday.