Midweek Review: Rutgers 0-31 Minnesota

1. The Gophers played a painfully reductive game of football that ultimately worked.

If you decide my opinions are worth your time, then I believe you deserve my honesty. So I'll be honest: The Gophers can be dreadfully boring on offense. They are not creative, they move more slowly than the continents, and as 2022 continues, they become increasingly reliant on one player's ability to pick up 4 or 5 yards at a time. It's brutalist football. I came to love college football watching the late-2000s Big 12. I need some passing, at least occasional bursts of higher tempo, and most of all big plays.

We didn't get any of that on Saturday. Instead, Minnesota repeatedly hit Rutgers in the head with a hammer, and they kept going even after the body stopped moving. Despite facing one of the Big Ten's strongest run defenses, and despite the return of Tanner Morgan to the lineup, the Gophers ran the ball 53 times and generated just four explosive plays.

But while the Gophers were a minimal threat to the Rutgers safeties, they mostly advanced the ball. Their first drive spanned 99 yards over 10-and-a-half minutes, with just two plays gaining double-digit yardage. Over the whole game, Minnesota averaged 33 seconds of possession per play. That this game somehow took more than 3 hours is an argument against advertising as an institution.

The key to Minnesota's success, of course, was Mohamed Ibrahim. The offensive line gave a much-needed bounceback performance, but Ibrahim was outstanding. His vision, his agility, and his capacity to punish those who try and tackle him were all on display.

Ibrahim's 36 carries were the second-most in his college career, behind only the 2020 Maryland game, and his 159-yard rushing total was his sixth-greatest. The Gophers asked a lot of him, and he delivered.

Minnesota won the battle at the line of scrimmage, avoiding negative runs and dominating short-yardage situations. This wasn't supposed to happen against Rutgers of all teams, but Ibrahim and his line made it happen.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
Line yards and success rate are via
collegefootballdata.com.

2. Ibrahim is now Minnesota's career touchdowns leader.

There was little doubt it would happen, but the accomplishment is no less noteworthy. There have been some truly great running backs and receivers to precede and play alongside Ibrahim, but he has scored more touchdowns than any of them. What's more: Since it was a home game, he got to receive a proper ovation from the crowd during the fourth quarter. Few college athletes have that kind of moment outside of their final games or their Senior Day. As one of the greatest Gophers of all-time, Ibrahim deserved it.

3. Minnesota didn't test the Rutgers secondary much at all.

P.J. Fleck said on Monday that he and his staff determined that the Gophers have thrown most of their interceptions on passes farther downfield. So on Saturday, they just didn't bother going downfield.

Morgan did fine enough in such a limited role. A large portion of his targets were to receivers with defenders on their back, without a ton of space to make plays. Daniel Jackson was the most effective, turning his eight targets into six receptions for 51 yards. He created just enough separation for himself on this slant, a route he ran frequently:

As a group, the receiving corps was not at its best, but neither was the quarterback. Though Fleck counted four drops, you can call at least a couple of them marginal balls from Morgan. His placement was inconsistent. Even if the ball got where it needed to be, Morgan sometimes put the ball just ahead or just behind his target. Could Jackson have made this catch? Maybe, but even a foot more lead would have made that an easier task:

At every position, the Gophers' passing attack clearly doesn't have the coaches' complete faith. The coaches' response — to just not go downfield at all — unnecessarily holds this team back, as they have to get explosive plays somehow. But it is fair to say that Morgan, his receivers, and his offensive line need to earn that trust back. Saturday could represent a small step forward, even if they left a bit wanting.

4. Minnesota's top pass catcher needs to be more consistent at... well, catching passes.

Brevyn Spann-Ford has had a strong season. The redshirt senior has dramatically improved his blocking and put his length and athleticism to good use as a receiver. No player on the team has been targeted more than Spann-Ford, owing to how much Ciarrocca and Morgan trust him. In one of the few interesting wrinkles the Gophers showed on Saturday, Spann-Ford gained 21 yards on a wheel:

But Spann-Ford is not a game-breaking tight end, in large part because his hands can let him down. Pro Football Focus has Spann-Ford converting just three of 10 contested catch opportunities, and he's had some key drops. One of them, in the Colorado game, bounced off his hands and turned into an interception. Another came on Saturday, spoiling what would have been a walk-in touchdown.

For Spann-Ford to be a greater asset to the Gophers, and a better NFL prospect, he has to clean this up. He is a highly capable player who has already improved considerably since coming to campus. Spann-Ford has to eliminate mistakes like these, especially by the time the Gophers face two of the Big Ten's elite defenses at the end of the regular season.

5. The Rutgers offense was immobile.

To be frank, the side of the ball that Minnesota needed to worry about coming into Saturday was not the offense. The Scarlet Knights have cycled through quarterbacks due to injury and ineffectiveness, and their offensive line has neither helped protect those quarterbacks nor created room for the team's running backs. Rutgers' ranks in overall success rate (96th out of 131 FBS teams) and explosiveness (131st) entering the game, per collegefootball.com, made it clear that this was among the least threatening teams on the U of M's schedule.

The results, therefore, should not have been a surprise. The Scarlet Knights averaged just 3.0 yards per play on their way to getting shut out, the second Gophers opponent to suffer that fate this year. The first, New Mexico State, is the only team that arguably did worse against Minnesota. Based on starting field position, Rutgers could have gained up to 790 yards in this game; by gaining just 134 yards, they managed less than a fifth of what was available.

The ground game was hopeless. As many Rutgers carries gained at least 4 yards (four) as gained none.

Cody Lindenberg, who has seen his playing time increase as the season carries on, had his most noticeable performance of 2022. Plays ending in a Lindenberg solo or assisted tackle averaged 2.4 yards.

As always, the Gophers got excellent play out of their safeties. Jordan Howden had 2.0 tackles (both solo), making the stops on plays that gained 3 and 0 yards. Tyler Nubin continues to establish himself as the star of this defense, making two interceptions and 3.0 tackles (all solo). The first pick showed his intelligence and closing speed, breaking on an underthrown ball to the sideline. Nubin kept his feet in bounds as he made the catch, and the Gophers took over. Ibrahim scored two plays later.

After three weeks of burning themselves with untimely mistakes, the Gophers played as well as they did in the opening weeks of the season. Yes, it was Rutgers, but nobody else has shut out Rutgers this season. Dominance counts for something, even if the competition isn't very good.

6. The Scarlet Knights' passing attack again floundered, even as the Gophers again struggled to produce sacks.

Gavin Wimsatt was something of a surprise quarterback choice from Rutgers, considering his only previous start in 2022 was in a quarterback-by-committee rout over Wagner. But it wasn't as if Noah Vedral or Evan Simon has excelled either, so Wimsatt got a chance.

It didn't go well. His accuracy wavered, and he sometimes had different ideas than his receivers did. The most frequent way Rutgers has generated big passing plays this year is out of structure, with receivers coming free as the quarterback broke from the pocket. The Minnesota secondary prevented that from happening and forced Wimsatt to hold on to the ball. Even against Wimsatt's speed, the defense had nearly every scramble covered.

Wimsatt didn't get a lot of help, either. As established, there was no run game. Interim offensive coordinator Nunzio Campanile didn't do much to ease Wimsatt's load with screens or play-action. The Rutgers wideouts dropped easy catches. It was a collective failure.

The Gophers' pass rush was slightly better than in past weeks. For one, they produced a sack, split by Jah Joyner and Danny Striggow. But Wimsatt — and, after Wimsatt's injury, Vedral — found it too easy to break from the pocket. This has been a recurring issue against mobile passers this season; if facing someone better, the Gophers could have gotten burned. Though any progress is welcome, the line still needs to generate more pressure and prevent the quarterback from having time to improvise.

7. This game included a brilliant punting exhibition.

Adam Korsak is, along with Iowa's Tory Taylor, one of the twin kings of punting in the Big Ten. According to PFF's stats, Korsak is tied for 4th in FBS this season in punts downed inside the 20-yard line (21), and his punts have resulted in just three returns for -2 yards. He's had just two touchbacks all year. Korsak is a master of his craft at the college level, and he showed that in Minneapolis.

His first attempt came in a difficult situation. Greg Schiano made the cowardly decision to punt from the Minnesota 36-yard line — I don't care that it was 4th-and-8; punting from that deep in opposing territory is an act of surrender — which required Korsak, so close to the end zone, to be perfect. And he was:

Korsak showed he's not just about placement on his next two attempts, though: He flipped the field with punts of 77 and 63 yards, with the latter pushing Fleck to just not try at all to score before halftime. (More on that in a second.) Even granting the benefit of wind, this was impressive.

On average, the Gophers started 17.6 yards from their own goal line after a Korsak punt. The Scarlet Knights couldn't do much, but their second-team All-American did his job.

For his part, Mark Crawford was also decent, but he could have done more. He couldn't quite pin Rutgers deep in their own territory on attempts where he didn't have as much space. A punt from the Rutgers side of midfield only put them at the 15-yard line. Another from the Minnesota 43 only carried to the 22. While neither kick resulted in a return, Crawford was not as effective in those spots as his counterpart, nor as effective as he has been in the past.

Crawford's other two punts, meanwhile, deserved better coverage. Rutgers' Aron Cruickshank effectively faked out Justin Walley on the first, miming a fair catch as the ball flew over his head and bounced into the end zone for a touchback. But Walley could have downed the ball before it crossed the goal line He should have done so when he found himself in the same spot later:

It was good (not perfect) execution from the punter. Crawford just needed a bit of help from his teammate.

8. With a chance to go up three possessions before halftime Fleck... just gave up.

He never changes, does he? Not that Minnesota has shown real prowess running a 2-minute drill during Fleck's tenure, but the head coach's sheer lack of ambition or urgency at the end of halves is galling.

With 89 seconds left in the second quarter, after Korsak's 63-yard punt, Minnesota had 78 yards in front of them. Even getting into range for a long field goal attempt was not too difficult a task in this spot. With the Gophers getting the ball back after the break, they could have taken a 28-point lead before the Scarlet Knights had another possession. Fleck declined that opportunity entirely.

On 1st down, the Gophers ran the ball for a modest gain. But instead of hurrying to the line and trying to advance the ball, they just let the clock wind down. On 2nd down, they ran it again and let the clock go again. They ran one more play before the quarter ended, a Morgan scramble for a meaningless 1st down. He might as well have taken a knee three times.

Fleck's postgame explanation was not a good one. He said that if Quentin Redding had fielded the punt instead of letting it roll, Minnesota would have actually tried to score. With Minnesota's defense playing so well, Fleck thought the only way that Rutgers would get back into the game is if the Minnesota offense handed them an extra chance before halftime.

The idea that a good defensive performance necessitates conservative coaching does not hold up. If the evidence suggests that you can trust your defense to get stops, you should trust your defense to get stops. Rutgers' offense has been so woeful this season, and was so ineffective up to that point in the game, that the potential negative consequences of trying to score again should have been minimal.

On a more macro level, refusing to try and score points while only holding a two-possession lead is a great way to keep an opponent within striking distance. And I reiterate: There were 89 seconds. Even without a timeout, the Gophers did not have to take risks with the ball or put their offensive line and quarterback in disadvantageous positions. They could have run a varied attack, without truly hurrying, and still come away with points.

The win ensures that Fleck's bad decision here will be forgotten, but he's made similar decisions in previous games. To an inexcusable degree, Fleck defaults to the risk-averse.

9. I'm out of football things to talk about, so let's rank Goldy's Halloween costumes.

1. Marty McFly (with DeLorean and hoverboard)

"I guess you kids aren't ready for that yet. But your parents are gonna love it."-Goldy McFly, October 29, 2022 pic.twitter.com/KyKhlopfJd

— Goldy Gopher (@GoldytheGopher) October 31, 2022

2. Legolas (with bow and arrow)

3. Barbie (stuck in box before popping out)

4. Gru (joined, in a nice touch, by the Minion-capped spirit squad)

5. Mike Wazowski (at women's basketball)

6. Turf (a bit abstract)

7. Darth Vader (well-crafted, but I feel like I've seen this one before)

8. P.J. Fleck (when it's Goldy, it's more charming than the average fan I've met dressed as Fleck)

9. Headless Horseman (just a little sloppy — which may have been the point)

It was a slightly weaker year for Goldy's costumes. His sideline bits weren't quite as funny, and there wasn't a standout costume like there was in recent seasons. But it only counts as a disappointment compared to Goldy's high standards. There was still some real quality.

10. The only November drama for Minnesota: battles for bragging rights and mid-tier bowl placement.

Though Purdue lost to Wisconsin two weeks ago, Minnesota is still decidedly out of the Big Ten West race. Illinois' defense continues to carry them; Bret Bielema's team has yet to falter, or to even suggest that they will. Whoever wins the Illinois-Purdue game next weekend in West Lafayette should win the division. Until those two teams tumble, Minnesota's place in the race is not worth considering further.

Therefore, the remaining stakes are essentially week-to-week: Avoid embarrassment against the bad teams, beat your rivals, and ideally have some fun. According to the Massey Composite, Minnesota is better than every team left on their schedule. Their next two opponents, Nebraska and Northwestern, are ranked 91st and 115th. By both ESPN's Football Power Index and the Massey Ratings (which is different from the Composite), the Gophers have a roughly 1-in-5 chance of winning out. Their chances of losing out, meanwhile, are 1-in-200 or so.

In other words, bowl eligibility is practically assured. If Minnesota can finish 8-4, that will at least be enough to avoid a third Motor City Bowl berth in eight years. Tampa and Orlando would be off the table. If you want a game on the weekend, hope for the Music City Bowl on New Year's Eve. A trip to the Bronx would happen in the middle of a weekday; so would playing Charlotte, but at least it would be warmer — and in an actual football stadium.

If none of these possibilities excite you, I don't blame you. This season, while fine by typical Minnesota standards, could have been a lot more. If the final month yields a rivalry trophy or three, that will at least make 2022 more memorable.

Next Game

When Nebraska fired Scott Frost in September, it removed a lingering weight hanging over Memorial Stadium. It also gave another former Cornhuskers quarterback, Mickey Joseph, effectively an audition to become NU's next head coach. Since taking over on an interim basis, Joseph has made significant changes. He shifted the practice schedule as soon as he took the job. He fired defensive coordinator Erik Chinander after his first game, a 35-point loss to Oklahoma. Starting lineups have been reshuffled. Thanks to Joseph's work recruiting in-state, Nebraska added a 4-star commitment last week and may avoid suffering the full negative impact of a transition class. Joseph isn't playing babysitter.

But the team as currently constructed is just not good enough. Joseph's Nebraska is 2-3, having beaten Indiana fairly comfortably and barely scraped by Rutgers. In West Lafayette, the Huskers traded blows with Purdue for a full 60 minutes but could only claim a moral victory. After quarterback Casey Thompson left with an injury last week, they couldn't even take that much from a 26-9 defeat to Illinois. Joseph cannot rescue a bad roster from bad results, but he probably cannot become the permanent head coach without some proof of concept. If you squint at the final stretch — Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa — you might see one win.

If Thompson cannot play, the odds decrease that that one win comes this weekend. While he's been far from perfect, Thompson is easily the most experienced, most effective passer on the team. Logan Smothers, more of a running quarterback, threw exactly one pass before being pulled for the more dropback-oriented Chubba Purdy. Purdy, playing from behind against a vicious Illinois defense, completed three of his eight attempts, threw an interception, and took two sacks. If Smothers plays from the beginning, the Huskers might pose some threat running the option. But they'd rather have Thompson.

Regardless of who plays quarterback, the skill positions have talent. Anthony Grant has shouldered basically the entire load in Nebraska's rushing attack, and he's justified it. Grant is 10th in the conference in yards from scrimmage, and he's scored six touchdowns. Ex-LSU receiver Trey Palmer had a quiet week against Illinois but overall has had a tremendous season, making plays at every level of the field. In addition to monitoring Marcus Washington and Alante Brown near the line of scrimmage, the Gophers should be wary of tight end Travis Vokolek running routes over the middle. The Huskers do have some weapons.

What they don't have is effective line play. Thompson has been sacked as many times this season (19) as he was in his whole Texas career. Despite the fact that the five offensive linemen who opened the game against Illinois have 83 career starts between them, Nebraska just can't protect the quarterback or consistently run the ball.

The defensive line has had similar problems. According to collegefootballdata.com, Nebraska allows the 21st-highest success rate in FBS, and it all starts up front. The Huskers don't throw opposing teams off schedule, seldom sacking opposing quarterbacks and rarely stuffing runs. Especially compared to the Gophers' blockers, Nebraska's front is is undersized: The four starting linemen average 272.5 pounds, and the five most-used linebackers all weigh less than 230 pounds. Expect Nebraska to rotate in nose tackles Stephon Wynn Jr. (305 pounds) and Nash Hutmacher (330) a bit more often than normal to try lessening the mismatch. But Minnesota should run rampant.

The secondary gives up its share of gains as well, so the issues don't stop in the box. Opponents have completed 63.0 percent of their passes and posted a 14-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

If the Huskers are okay at anything defensively, it's keeping their many breaks from turning into outright hemorrhages. Safeties Marques Buford Jr. and Myles Farmer, plus nickelback Isaac Gifford, are the team's three leading tacklers, reflecting how many messes the back end has had to clean up. They have done a fine enough job overall; NU has allowed the 28th-lowest explosiveness mark. But most of that success at preventing the big play has been against the pass. If the Gophers can throw the ball enough to force the safeties to back off, Ibrahim could break into the secondary a few times.

This is not a defeated Nebraska team, but it is just as deeply flawed a team as Frost left it. Minnesota, as always, will have to show more aggressiveness and creativity, but they go into Lincoln the better side and should win.