Midweek Review: Minnesota 34-7 Michigan State

It is possible that Michigan State is yet another bad opponent on Minnesota's schedule. But if the Spartans aren't bad — and we should think they aren't, aside from a debilitating secondary — then Minnesota has recorded their first truly impressive win of 2022. Against a conference opponent that won 11 games a year ago, the Gophers had no problem changing their style of play, won almost as handily as they did against the non-conference cupcakes, and now sit at 4-0. More tests remain, but they made a definitive statement in passing the first one.

1. The Gophers took what the defense gave them.

P.J. Fleck and Kirk Ciarrocca have often spoken about what offensive "balance" means to them: essentially, being able to move the ball however is needed to win on a given day. Especially in the Mike Sanford Jr. years, Fleck's Gophers have not stuck to that. They've run the ball repeatedly, on any down or distance, and regularly into heavy boxes. This has been a run-first team.

Michigan State's defense was not likely to give as much on the ground as Minnesota's first three opponents did. Though the Spartans were woeful defensively against Washington, the blame was solely with the pass defense. That was the team's biggest problem in 2021, and their game against Washington confirmed that the problem was not fixed. For any opponent facing Michigan State, the blueprint became clear: Throw until the defense stopped you.

Having established a bullheaded approach over the years, it was no certainty that Minnesota would actually do that, though. Down their top wideout, always confident in their running game, would the Gophers really do what was needed to win?

The answer, resoundingly, was yes. Tanner Morgan threw the ball on 26 of Minnesota's first 58 snaps, completing 23 passes for 268 yards and three touchdowns. It was as efficient as Morgan has been in some time.

Minnesota's passing attack took a similar approach to what it was in previous games, just in greater volume. Morgan took a couple shots downfield, and all his touchdowns came on throws to the end zone, but he mostly did his damage between 10 and 15 yards. When nothing was open, he checked down.

Clearly, it worked. The Spartans' defensive line didn't bat down any low passes at the line of scrimmage, and their defensive backs and linebackers bit on play action and couldn't keep up with Morgan's many pass catchers.

Michigan State couldn't sack Morgan, either, which owed to three factors: how quickly he got rid of the ball, the quality of his pass protection, and how he handled the rare occasion that he needed to move in the pocket. That last point has been one of Morgan's strengths this season, even if he's not anything resembling a true "dual-threat" quarterback. He's kept a calm head and made some impressive scrambles, two of which turned 3rd-and-longs into 1st downs on Saturday.

This game approached the platonic ideal of Minnesota's style. The Gophers kept the ball moving on standard downs and picked up some big conversions on passing downs. Their quarterback played an intelligent game, executing the gameplan while sprinkling in a few impressive plays. While they were missing a little explosiveness, that's not needed as much when the offense is so efficient.

2. The Gophers involved all their receiving options.

Another thing Fleck and Ciarrocca needed to prove: a willingness to widely distribute the ball. Yes, Dylan Wright, Clay Geary, Le'Meke Brockington, and others got targets in Minnesota's first three games. But overwhelmingly, those chances came after the score had become lopsided. How many players make receptions doesn't count for much if the same handful are the only ones getting the ball in relatively neutral situations. With Chris Autman-Bell gone, the Gophers needed to either find a new top receiver or get things done by committee.

On Saturday, they did the latter. Though Michael Brown-Stephens led the Goophers with six targets (and six catches), Morgan threw to nine other players. All but one of them was targeted in the first half, when the Gophers were still building their lead. The other, Nick Kallerup, caught the touchdown that made that lead truly insurmountable at 24-0. This was not a one-man show, but a true team performance.

One of the standout performers was Daniel Jackson. Jackson spent a lot of his freshman year on the outside, getting the ball farther downfield, but last year, he moved to the slot and became a weapon in the short game. He showed against MSU that these different experiences have left him well-equipped to fulfill multiple roles in Autman-Bell's absence. He had two targets more than 20 yards downfield, converting one into an impressive touchdown:

He also created a 15-yard gain for himself on this tunnel screen:

It looks like Jackson and Brown-Stephens are the two wideouts the Gophers will trust anywhere on the field, especially in the short and intermediate areas. They should be able to do the job.

However, sooner or later, Minnesota needs a source of explosive plays. As Bill Connelly noted this week, the Gophers can hit a good few doubles but seldom hit home runs.

A lot of that can be attributed to how the passing game operates. Just nine of Morgan's 79 pass attempts this season have traveled 20 or more yards, and he's attacked the deep middle once. Hyper-efficiency is great. It's how Minnesota got to 183 points on the season. It's also an approach to which teams with better defensive backs will have more answers.

This, hopefully, is where Wright steps in. Twenty-five of Wright's 31 targets a season ago were 10 or more yards downfield, the most extreme ratio among the team's five leading receivers. This season, he's been targeted just twice shorter than 10 yards and was the intended receiver on three of Morgan's nine deep throws. As a result, he's second on the team in air yards per catch (12.6), behind Autman-Bell (13.9).

In this game, Wright made three catches on three targets for 54 yards, and all three were at least 10 yards downfield. Additionally, he drew a pass interference call running a slant in the first quarter. It was the most meaningful instance so far this year where the Gophers counted on Wright to deliver, and he did so. If Wright can keep it up, they'll have a deep complement to the short game. Variety will be vital as Minnesota gets deeper into Big Ten play, so they'll need that option.

3. Minnesota had a jittery start on the ground but quickly found their footing.

The Spartans came out ready to stop the run. They didn't bring out a third linebacker like the Gophers will do against Iowa and Wisconsin, but they did reveal their intentions with their alignment. On the first couple drives, MSU used a single high safety on 14 of 19 snaps. The deep safety was usually parked deep, at least 20 yards off the line, while the other crept closer to the ball and sat in the slot or just off the shoulder of a linebackers. It didn't technically make for a heavier box count, but it put more bodies around the line of scrimmage.

On those first two drives, Minnesota's nine designed runs picked up 36 yards, and 21 of those yards came on one play. It's clear that defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton prioritized slowing down the run, and the early results were decent.

But when Minnesota opened the game by throwing, picking up 121 yards through passes or pass interference penalties on their first two possessions, Michigan State backed off. On the next three drives, Minnesota faced a single deep safety eight times on 31 snaps. Instead, MSU gave them two-high looks. One safety was usually two or three yards closer to the line than the other before the play started, but he often backed off just before the snap.

With a bit more breathing room, Minnesota again thrived on the ground.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
line yards and success rate are via
collegefootballdata.com.

It wasn't just the passing game that opened up space for Minnesota's running backs. The Gophers again kept their personnel light, hardly using a second tight end. They trusted their offensive line and whichever tight end they had on the field (usually Spann-Ford). Michigan State had to match personnel, staying in nickel rather than putting on bigger defenders. The blockers consistently came through against a front that to that point hadn't been gashed on the ground.

It helps matters when a wide receiver can do the job of a tight end. Split zone has been a staple of the Minnesota offense the last few years, and usually it's involved a second tight end or heavy personnel. See the play below, from last year's win over Northwestern: The Gophers had six linemen and two tight ends on the field. The line all blocked down, and Spann-Ford motioned across to kick out the edge defender.

Against Michigan State, though, the man coming across the formation was Geary. Listed at 5 feet 10 inches and 200 pounds, Geary does not have a prototypical frame for a run blocker. But when the other team puts a cornerback on the edge, Geary, too, is apparently capable of serving pancakes.

Minnesota went back to this call over and over again. The above instance was Geary's most eye-catching block, but he did a fine job overall. Expect to see split zone out of 11 personnel many more times this season, especially against lighter teams.

4. Mohamed Ibrahim continues to plow through everyone.

There are only so many ways to say it on a weekly basis. Ibrahim is one of the elite running backs in college football. He's arguably the very best from a crowded list of claimants to the Big Ten crown. There may not be a better player in the sport at breaking tackles and advancing the ball after contact.

Ibrahim finished Saturday with 123 all-purpose yards and a rushing touchdown. That score, his 41st as a Gopher, put him alone atop the program rushing touchdowns leaderboard. He still has plenty of time to break more records and polish off his case as greatest tailback in program history.

5. In a game where they were actually needed, Justin Walley and Terell Smith stepped up.

Michigan State's defensive strategy of backing off their cornerbacks is primarily meant to prevent big plays. Minnesota's defenders don't sit back quite as much at the snap, and they're better at their jobs, but the two teams play with the same goal in mind. Good zone defense will force the opposing quarterback to throw underneath. Sound tackling will prevent catches from turning into significant gains.

Payton Thorne and his receivers couldn't find cracks the Gophers' zones. On short concepts, there was too much congestion:

Whenever Thorne completed one of these short throws, there was a defender (or two or three) in position to make the stop. The Gophers took away easy gains.

An early turning point came on MSU's third drive, with a 4th-and-3 just past midfield. Minnesota's linebackers and nickelback hovered around the line to gain, ensuring the underneath routes were covered. Thorne had to look away from his first target over the middle and forced a throw to Keon Coleman on the sideline. Walley made an easy pick to kill the Spartans' first productive drive. Game on Paper estimates the interception added 5.3 expected points to the Gophers' cause.

Walley had one of the more eventful days for any Minnesota defender, recovering a fumble and making one-on-one tackles on the perimeter when needed. On the opposite side of the field, Smith did the same.

The Gophers' starting cornerbacks combined for 7.0 tackles (7 solo, 0 assisted), which came on plays gaining just 6 yards on average. They did their job to hold Thorne and his receivers to marginal gains.

6. Michigan State started the second half on the move, but a timely turnover put an end to that.

Coming out of halftime, the Spartans had a plan to get back into the game: They would test the Gophers' ability to defend from the middle to the sidelines, drawing the linebackers in with play-action and calling runs to the edge rather than up the middle. See their first snap of the third quarter, this Thorne rollout that got him a clean pocket and an open Tre Mosley in the flat.

Or their second snap, a toss counter that led to a decent pickup for Jalen Berger. Note the jet motion before the snap, which didn't seem to attract the Gophers' attention away from the play but demonstrated how MSU tried to kick-start their offense through misdirection.

There was also this 3rd-and-long, where MSU isolated Mariano Sori-Marin against Mosley over the middle. It was a chase Sori-Marin was never going to win. Smith helped out, but not before Mosley converted.

Jay Johnson's script was working exactly as it was supposed to. Michigan State finally got into the red zone, eventually setting up a 1st-and-goal from the 6-yard line. And then...

Thomas Rush knocked the ball loose from Thorne's hands. A cluster of Gophers was there to pick it up; it ended up bouncing right into Walley's lap, and he didn't miss it. The Spartans, who had killed a Gophers scoring opportunity by forcing and recovering an Ibrahim fumble, were turned away in the same way. Their starters didn't come this close to scoring the rest of the game.

7. Minnesota is getting havoc plays from the rush end position.

Boye Mafe and Carter Coughlin set a high standard for disruption at rush end. The players in that position on Minnesota's defense would set opposing offenses back by pressuring the quarterback and creating takeaway opportunities. One of Mafe or Coughlin led the team in havoc plays (tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles) each of the last three seasons.

Currently, the Gophers' leader in that statistic is Smith, who has 5.0 havoc plays. One reason, other than Smith's good play: Minnesota's pass rush generated pressure in their first three games but didn't always to turn that pressure into sacks. Against Michigan State, there wasn't much pass rush at all: Thorne got rid of the ball quickly most of the time, and the Gophers rarely rushed more than four. According to PFF, Minnesota generated just two pressures. Havoc, then, has not come from harassing the quarterback.

But on Saturday, Rush and Danny Striggow played critical roles in keeping the Spartans off the board until their final drive. Though fumble recoveries are at least as much about good fortune as skill — an oblong ball takes weird bounces — forcing fumbles is a coachable skill. Rush described to the press this week how he made sure to punch the ball out of Thorne's hands, something the Gophers practice daily. He created an opportunity for a turnover, and Minnesota capitalized.

Striggow, meanwhile, continues to impress in a part-time role. He typically appears in passing situations, and in those spots, he's generated pressure. As established, he didn't get much of a chance to do that in this game, but he made an impact by getting his hands on a screen pass for his first career interception.

That moment required some luck (it wasn't a great pass from Thorne), but it's clear that Striggow identified the screen and didn't just happen to run into the ball. He cited screen drills when asked about the interception on Tuesday. It was a heads-up play that topped off the Spartans' burial.

8. Playing from behind immediately, the Spartans barely ran the ball.

By the time MSU's second drive started, the game was already 12 minutes old, and the U of M led 14-0. Against an opponent whose whole identity is centered around holding the ball for long periods of time, Michigan State just did not have time to run.

Not that the run was working when the Spartans tried it: In the first half, their eight carries gained just 23 yards. The Gopher defense swarmed to the ball, and a Tyler Nubin tackle in space thwarted the best opportunity Jalen Berger had to break off a big run. The Spartans had a few successful rushes on MSU's first drive in the second half, but Thorne's fumble undid all of that. Minnesota sat on the ball and scored some more, and Michigan State couldn't afford to try running the few times they were on offense. They finished with just 46 rushing yards.

This is one of the benefits of Minnesota's approach. Limiting the number of possessions puts more pressure on the team that's behind. Michigan State's offensive line has been too much of a problem for the Spartans to have likely done much running the ball, but they probably would have liked the option. Instead, they had to pass on nearly three-quarters of their snaps just to try and keep up.

Obviously, the Gophers' slow pace can hurt them. But when the offense is at its most efficient, taking so much time limits what the other team can do. When the defense doesn't have to worry about the run, it should be a lot easier to stop the pass.

9. Fleck botched the end of the first half.

The root of Minnesota's wasted drive to close the second quarter was in how Fleck used his timeouts well before that point. As close observers are well aware, Fleck is unafraid to burn first-half timeouts to correct problems or avoid losing yardage to a delay of game.

I don't agree with Fleck's timeout usage but can at least sort of understand his logic. Sometimes. It's not as vital that a coach save his timeouts in the first half because the end of the second quarter is inherently not as high-leverage a situation as the end of the fourth. If pausing to tell the defense how to handle a mismatch prevents a big play, that can be a fair trade. A timeout is nearly always more valuable than the 5 yards you'd lose for a delay of game penalty, but you can justify using a timeout for certain strategic adjustments.

That said, just because second-half timeouts are more valuable does not mean that first-half timeouts are valueless. Minnesota gave further proof of that truth on Saturday.

I don't know that it was the right decision when, in the first quarter, the defense was taking too long to set on a 3rd-and-8 but was seemingly getting aligned in time. But I'll concede that I'm not a coach. Maybe coordinator Joe Rossi was yelling over the headset to Fleck that the Gophers were going to be caught out of position, or on top of the disorganization, they didn't like what Michigan State was presenting on offense. Anyway, the defense got sorted out, and Ryan Stapp sacked Thorne to force a punt. Minnesota still had two timeouts to use if needed later.

That remained true for less than 7 minutes of game time. This time, while the Gophers had the ball deep in the red zone, they faced 3rd-and-6. From the moment Big Ten Network cut back to the press box camera angle, it looked like Minnesota was having some communication issues. Notice Fleck giving signals at about the 22-yard line.

After Morgan turned away, Fleck evidently still needed his quarterback's attention. When he didn't get it, he kept meandering down the sideline and turned to the official to call another timeout.

Again, the reason Fleck called a timeout was to deal with some kind of tactical problem. I don't think this one was necessary, though, considering the Gophers were on offense. They controlled when the ball was snapped and were therefore less likely to suffer catastrophe on a poorly executed play. Alternatively, Fleck could have decided to accept a delay of game penalty. That wouldn't be the ideal outcome, but the Gophers were already in a passing down, and a field goal (which they got) would have made it a three-possession game. Missing out on a touchdown would not have been a horrible shortcoming. That timeout could have been useful later.

When Minnesota eventually got the ball back at the end of the second half, they had more than 2-and-a-half minutes to add to their lead. They didn't seem very interested in doing that, however. After a penalty set them back on 1st down, the Gophers let 32 seconds drain from the clock before snapping the ball again. They gained a new set of downs a couple plays later, but instead of picking up the pace with 101 seconds left in the half, they kept idling. Another 28 seconds came off the clock.

Minnesota followed up another 1st down with another penalty, but they still had 54 seconds to score again. Instead, they ran the ball, let 32 seconds go by, and then found themselves in MSU territory only thanks to a blatant facemask foul.

It wasn't as if Minnesota was unaware of the situation. At one point, Ibrahim appealed to the officials that he came down in bounds instead of going out so that the clock would keep running. The Gophers were trying to end the half rather than try to score more. In a conference game on the road, with a decent but not insurmountable lead, Fleck took the wrong approach to this stretch of the game. It should have been a 2-minute drill, but the Gophers tried to play keep-away. What's more frustrating is that Fleck might have been more aggressive if he had left himself more than one timeout.

Minnesota's half was not over, though. With 12 seconds and the ball at MSU's 45-yard line, there was still ample opportunity to set up a field goal attempt. But like in the Colorado game last year, Fleck had a misunderstanding with the officials about when the clock would restart, and the Gophers used all but one of those seconds to run one play. Rather than taking a shot at the end zone with the last snap, Minnesota knelt out the half.

Was any of this ultimately consequential? No. But this was another example of the game management issues that Fleck has exhibited repeatedly since becoming Minnesota's head coach. He had a chance to put his team's lead beyond reach, and he let it go. That can't happen against more dangerous teams.

10. If the next couple games go their team's way, Minnesota fans should allow themselves to board the hype train.

This win could lose its shine if Michigan State tumbles in the next few weeks, but for now, it counts as validation in the eyes of both humans and ratings systems. The Gophers crept into both major polls and now sit at 10th in the Massey Composite. SP+ considers them the 7th-best team in FBS, and FEI has them in 5th; both systems have every team remaining on their schedule ranked behind them. Sound the alarms: The computers believe in Minnesota.

CURRENT P5 TITLE ODDS, PER SP+ (h/t @tfgridiron)

ACC: Clemson 36%, Pitt 20%, NC St 16%, FSU 12%
B1G: Ohio St 43%, GOPHERS! 25%, Mich 20%, PSU 6%
B12: OU 34%, BU 16%, K-State 15%, OSU 14%
P12: Utah 28%, USC 27%, Oregon 17%, UCLA 15%
SEC: UGA 41%, Bama 37%, Ole Miss 7%, Tenn 5%

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 25, 2022

There remain no guarantees. As established, Michigan State is probably okay overall but has an obvious, potentially fatally flaw. Maybe beating the Spartans by 27 isn't as impressive as we'd like to think it is, and the Gophers still haven't faced a real test yet. The team has had decent luck with injuries as well: Autman-Bell is the only major absentee. That can change quickly. And as always, Wisconsin lurks in the distance, eminently flawed but still a threat against teams not in national title contention.

All that said: Football is supposed to be fun. The Gophers face a banged up Purdue on Saturday and an Illinois team whose level we're still figuring out. They could still be undefeated heading into the White Out at Penn State. Even if they lose one or two of those games, they're in good shape to win the Big Ten West. Acknowledging that, or allowing oneself to get caught up in the moment, won't jinx anything. There's no reward for being the biggest pessimist.

Most teams' seasons don't play out like a dream, especially not those at Minnesota's station in college football. The other shoe will probably drop — in Happy Valley, in Madison, or even in Minneapolis — but it hasn't yet. It will absolutely hurt when that happens, but it will not matter until it does.

The coaches and players can't afford to look ahead. Fans can afford themselves a fantasy, though. If listening to Fleck's coachspeak about "one-game championship seasons" is what a fan needs to keep a calm head, I won't say they're is doing anything wrong. If they accept the risk of letting this season hurt them but don't allow that to consume their perspective, that's fine, too.

However, there's no need to stay bitter and skeptical because Gopher football hasn't won anything significant since the 1960s, or because of Minnesota's mostly tortured history in the big four professional sports leagues. That context doesn't have to have anything to do with experiencing this team.

If the season goes wrong, it goes wrong, and that's just sports. But if it goes right, there are fun times ahead and unforgettable memories yet to be made. Let it come to you.

Next Game

Purdue was missing quarterback Aidan O'Connell last week and subsequently faced a real fight against Florida Atlantic. The Boilermakers' passing attack is built on short, quick passes, but like anyone, they have to pose a downfield threat. While O'Connell is not the best downfield passer, Purdue was hopeless in that department without him. According to PFF, Austin Burton targeted a receiver 20 yards or more downfield exactly once.

The Boilermakers will hope to get back their No. 1 on Saturday. As of Monday, O'Connell is questionable.

The star of Purdue's offense through four games has been Iowa transfer Charlie Jones. He leads FBS in catches with 41, a count that surpasses what he did at Iowa and Buffalo combined (39). Jones is a threat at all levels of the field and must be Minnesota's top defensive priority. That will be true even if Burton is in at quarterback.

Purdue still spreads the ball around plenty, even if Jones is by far the team's favorite weapon. Tight end Payne Durham is the big-bodied security blanket over the middle. Another ex-Hawkeye, Tyrone Tracy Jr., will get the ball at or behind the line of scrimmage with the job of picking up yards after the catch. T.J. Sheffield has gotten a few deep targets as well, even if that wasn't his job a year ago. And the running backs will receive their share of swing passes, often coming off a pick in the flat.

But the Boilermakers will not run the ball frequently, and they won't run it well. Against Penn State and Syracuse, they averaged just 3.6 yards per carry.

O'Connell is one of a handful of key injuries Purdue has dealt with. Also on offense, running back King Doerue and receiver Broc Thompson missed the Syracuse and FAU games; tackle Cam Craig was out last week; and wideout Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen has yet to play at all.

The injuries extend to the defensive backfield. Hybrid linebacker Jalen Graham, whom Jeff Brohm called his "best playmaker," hasn't played since the opener. Former Indiana Hoosier Reese Taylor missed the FAU game. Anther transfer cornerback, Tee Dinson from Kansas State, has missed every game.

Perhaps owing to these injuries, Purdue has allowed 13.1 yards per completion, which ranks 111th in FBS. Not only that: Using PFF's numbers, no FBS team's cornerbacks and safeties have committed more coverage penalties per target than Purdue's.

So while Purdue has allowed the nation's 8th-lowest completion rate (51.2 percent), they have some real problems in the secondary. FAU in particular had success going deep, but taking shots may not be necessary to exploit this weakness. Bad tackling against against Penn State turned a few medium gains into back-breakers.

Up front, the Boilermakers predictably haven't found someone who can match George Karlaftis' excellence on the edge. Six different players are tied for the team lead in sacks with 1.0 apiece. PFF credits tackle Branson Deen and end Kydran Jenkins with 29 combined pressures so far, but neither has converted their opportunities into sacks.

Purdue has fielded a capable run defense, however. They rank 18th in yards per non-sack carry allowed; and, per collegefootballdata.com, 27th in success rate and 7th in explosiveness. Safeties Cam Allen, Chris Jefferson, and Sanoussi Kane have taken active roles in slowing down opposing running backs. The biggest possible weakness might be containing mobile quarterbacks, which shouldn't come into play on Saturday. Even if Morgan has run well this season, he's not the threat that FAU's N'Kosi Perry is.

This is another game where the Gophers should air it out. Morgan almost certainly won't have as good a game as he had in East Lansing, but Purdue will give him and his receivers opportunities to strike. If that opens up room to run the ball, all the better, but Minnesota should be careful not to turtle too quickly if they build an early lead. Especially if O'Connell is healthy, the Boilermakers could keep the game within reach into the fourth quarter. This is no guaranteed win, and Minnesota must treat it that way.