Midweek Review: Colorado 7-49 Minnesota

1. Just as the Gophers get back one starting wideout, they lose another.

Daniel Jackson, injured during preseason camp, had warmed up for the first two games of the season but only made his 2022 debut against Colorado. It was a fairly quiet game for him, but Jackson came away with a couple of catches for 26 yards. The Gophers will be glad to have Jackson, entering his third season as a starter, back in the lineup.

Jackson's return is especially welcome after Minnesota lost sixth-year receiver Chris Autman-Bell to a non-contact injury in the second quarter. Autman-Bell's departure put a damper on what was otherwise a shining capper to the non-conference schedule.

P.J. Fleck confirmed on Monday that Autman-Bell will miss the season. Whether he'll receive (or use) a medical redshirt is currently unknown, meaning this might have been Autman-Bell's last appearance in a Gophers uniform. It would be cruel way for his Minnesota career to end. He could have finished the game with 2,000 career receiving yards, a mark just eight other Gophers have achieved. A successful, complete final season might have gotten him into the NFL Draft. Now, his pro prospects look even more uncertain.

The cold reality of sport, though, is that the Gophers must get on with it. If there's some solace to take, the depth chart at receiver looks fine enough for that task to not be insurmountable. Jackson and Michael Brown-Stephens have shown the ability to play both in the slot and on the outside. Brown-Stephens can also play the deep threat, a role that Dylan Wright has played in more intermittent spells. Brevyn Spann-Ford has demonstrated his reliability as a receiving tight end. The passing game should not fall apart in Autman-Bell's absence.

None of the players stepping up, however, have proven themselves to the level that Autman-Bell has. Those behind them have even smaller track records. Until these players actually play in bigger roles, we cannot know whether the passing game has the extra gear it likely needs to win the Big Ten West.

We will see whether, in the absence of a clear No. 1 receiver, a new one steps up, or if Fleck and offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca again place a greater emphasis on running the ball.

2. Powered by their bruising, record-setting star, Minnesota dominated on the ground.

We only needed one snap to tell what kind of day it was going to be. While Colorado's defense was going to try its best, Minnesota's offensive line was going to create big holes in that defense, and Mohamed Ibrahim was going to punish anyone who dared touch him.

This was as easy as it gets. The Buffaloes have been horrid in run defense this season, and the Gophers have one of the best running backs in college football, running behind one of the biggest lines in college football. According to Pro Football Focus, Ibrahim gained 140 yards after contact alone.

His blockers were excellent as well, creating creases, preventing negative plays, and bowling over the Buffs in short-yardage situations. While starting left guard Axel Ruschmeyer left the game after one possession, the line didn't lose a step with Nathan Boe in his place.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
line yards and success rate are via
collegefootballdata.com.

Ibrahim's 202-yard performance doesn't even crack his three biggest games in a Gophers uniform, but it nevertheless carries some historical significance. He is now 5th on the program's career rushing yardage leaderboard, surpassing Marion Barber III, and is just the second Gopher to ever run for 40 touchdowns. Here is the carry that got him to that mark, one of a handful that could have rightfully been called his best of the afternoon:

Ibrahim could take sole possession of the touchdowns record, which he now shares with Darrell Thompson, as soon as next week. On top of that, he's roughly a quarter of the way to David Cobb's single-season yardage record (1,626). Ibrahim could make some history in his last season as a Gopher.

3. The Minnesota passing game moved smoothly.

In games like this, all Tanner Morgan has to be is serviceable. You must say that he was just that.

Morgan's success rate as a passer, according to Game on Paper, was a very solid 53 percent.  He again locked his eyes on his first read a few times, which is how he missed an early opportunity to take a deep shot and later almost threw an interception, but the Buffaloes couldn't make him pay for that. The only interception he did throw was because of a drop by Spann-Ford. Other than that, there weren't any glaring flaws to his performance. He handled pressure fairly well on the few times it came, and he was mostly on time and and on target. On throws to the end zone, Morgan was a perfect 3-for-3.

The Gophers probably could have gotten through the game just by running the ball, but a good showing through the air helped them bury the Buffs. While the team will need more out of the passing attack in Big Ten play, Morgan and company have done their job in all three non-conference games.

4. Two of Morgan's secondary targets made phenomenal catches in the end zone.

We have yet to see Dylan Wright truly break out or have a complete, star-level game, but boy, does he burn bright. His length and leaping ability make him a serious vertical threat, the kind of receiver who every once in a while can do something ridiculous. Like this:

Wright's touchdown came on the sixth snap after Autman-Bell's injury. If he plays well enough, this moment could retrospectively become symbolic: From this moment, he stepped up and became the receiver the Gophers had hoped for him to be. At the very least, Wright's ability to win contested balls makes him a like-for-like substitute for Autman-Bell in one specific way.

Clay Geary does not face such high expectations. Circumstances require that Geary contribute, but the former walk-on from Lakeville is more of a complementary piece than someone Minnesota needs to be a big-time player. That doesn't mean he can't make big-time plays.

Geary did well to find space for himself on this corner route, make the catch, and get his foot down for his first college touchdown. Again, the Gophers don't need their backup slot receiver to be elite. They just need to know they can count on him, both for their own comfort and to keep opposing defenses honest. If Geary can provide security, he'll have done his job. If he keeps making catches like that, he'll be doing a lot more.

5. Minnesota's offensive personnel choices have been rather vanilla so far.

One of the big questions going into the Big Ten schedule is whether the Kirk Ciarrocca offense as it existed over the first three weeks will be the Kirk Ciarrocca offense as intended to be used against better teams. We've seen the staple plays: inside, outside, and split zone runs; slant-bubble combos out of an RPO; max-protect fades. Ciarrocca has also added a few new plays, like quarterback sneaks in short-yardage spots, and the Gophers now take snaps from under center.

But we haven't seen some mainstays of the Minnesota offense from the last few years, specifically when it comes to personnel. We've seen them use 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end) around 80 percent of the time and 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) for every other snap that wasn't near the goal line. On just 10 snaps have the Gophers deployed an extra offensive lineman, and those instances have exclusively been near the end zone. The Wildcat, or one of its derivatives, has not appeared once.

Does this indicate that those elements have just been eliminated from the offense? Is the offense's collective braintrust just keeping it simple for the time being? And will Autman-Bell's injury push the Gophers back into using two tight ends and their super-sized lines more often?

For the record, these questions are not meant critically. The Gophers' unbalanced lines were useful but came to be counterproductive as the lines got bigger, as they ran the ball more and more out of those sets, and as opposing defenses kept cramming the box. Bringing back heavy personnel in the open field, if done selectively, would not inherently be a bad move. Nor would having Cole Kramer work as a Wildcat quarterback again. It is just worth paying attention to whether those packages return — and if so, in what spots, and with what plays attached to them.

6. Once again, the Gophers generated plenty of pressure. The pass rush can still improve.

According to PFF's tracking, Colorado's quarterbacks were pressured an incredible 17 times, which amounts to just over half their 33 combined dropbacks. Minnesota achieved that mark despite rarely blitzing, with defensive coordinator Joe Rossi counting on his secondary to keep the quarterback in the pocket and trusting his defensive line to get into the backfield with just four rushers.

Sometimes it only took three, as on Danny Striggow's sack. Before the snap, the Gophers simulated interior pressure with a linebacker over each A-gap. At the snap, instead of bringing the blitz, they dropped eight defenders. The left tackle, perhaps assuming the rush end Striggow would drop into coverage, or perhaps because of a miscommunication caused by the front, took Trill Carter's inside rush. Striggow was totally free. It was as easy a sack as Thomas Rush had last year in Boulder.

So far this season, Minnesota has converted 37 pressures (per PFF) into six sacks. That's not a bad pressure-to-sack rate (16.2 percent); the average FBS quarterback was sacked a similar rate last year.

If there has been a problem with the pass rush, though, it's that through three games, Minnesota has had trouble keeping mobile quarterbacks in the pocket. The Gophers have overrun the pocket and given quarterbacks room to escape. This started against Diego Pavia and Gavin Frakes of New Mexico State, continued with Nick Davenport of Western Illinois, and showed up again trying to contain Brendon Lewis. Nearly a third of Minnesota's pressures this season have led to scrambles, which is well above national standards.

Click to enlarge.

Of course, the Gophers have also prevented those scrambles from doing any damage. Against Colorado, for example, they only allowed 21 yards on five scrambles. Letting the quarterback run is less damaging when you stop him only a few yards downfield, and it's even easier to deal with when he's trying to run on 3rd-and-long.

Lewis won't be the last quarterback Minnesota faces who can run, and others will probably be better at it. Rossi might consider deploying a spy later in the season, as he did against Adrian Martinez in 2021. The Gophers still need to do better at keeping opposing passers in the pocket. The more they force the quarterback to stand back there, the more time they have to bring him down, and the less a chance there is that he breaks off a big run.

7. It was one of the Gopher secondary's most disruptive days under Fleck.

The Minnesota secondary did not face much of a challenge. Lewis and J.T. Shrout combined to go 6-for-17 for 38 yards and a late touchdown. They just weren't very good. (Owen McCown had the offense moving on CU's final possession, but that was meaningless.)

The Gophers, for their part, had a lot to do with the Buffs' struggles. As a team, they broke up nine passes. They came awfully close to intercepting a couple, but regardless, getting their hands on the ball so many times is an impressive feat. Just five other times since 2017 have the Gophers defensed so many passes. In every other instance, the opponent attempted more than 40 passes. The Buffaloes attempted 24.

With seven or eight men in coverage, there were too few passing lanes. Michael Dixon did not have a perfect day but made a few standout plays in coverage, earning credit for two of those pass breakups. Tyler Nubin also prevented a deep completion. Minnesota's linebackers chipped in by knocking down four passes. Though the Gophers are unlikely to continue generating pressure so consistently without blitzing, this game showed how an effective pass rush will give their coverage a boost.

8. Minnesota's run defense was again effective.

Below are Colorado's final rushing stats, included because I always include this table. They are, however, not that useful when so many of the Buffaloes' rushing attempts came in garbage time.

If we limit our observation to the 17 carries that occurred against what we can call the Gophers' starting defense, this performance looks significantly better than it does at that initial glance.

Stats that normally come from collegefootballdata.com
were calculated by hand following the definitions laid
out in the site's glossary.

The Buffaloes had a small handful of chunk carries, but they were mostly in inconsequential moments: either in garbage time, on a pointless run on the last play of the first half, or as vain attempts to convert passing downs. The Gophers consistently stopped them short of the line to gain. Mariano Sori-Marin was particularly effective, making 5.0 tackles (4 solo, 2 assisted).

If there is one area where Minnesota could improve, it is on the outside. The Buffaloes were more effective running outside the tackles than between them, with their two longest carries before garbage time attacking the edge. Here, the Gophers were the victim of their own alignment. CU had two receivers and a flexed tight end to block cornerback Justin Walley, nickelback Ryan Stapp, and the edge defender Rush. Though each should have done better to recognize that this was a run all the way — Rush in particular had a greater obligation to not let Brady Russell cut him off — this was largely unfortunate timing. Rossi called for pressure from the opposite side on a passing down, and the Buffs happened to run where the Gophers didn't have bodies.

Colorado's first play of the second half, an end around, was strictly a matter of poor edge defending. Jalen Logan Redding, the 5-technique defensive end, needed to contain the outside better to protect his defensive backs. When Russell came across in a split zone action, Logan-Redding let him take his outside shoulder, giving Maurice Bell plenty of room in the flat. Dixon, meanwhile, got worked by his man in the slot. Fortunately, enough players caught up to the play to clean things up before Bell broke off a huge run. Braelen Oliver ultimately made the tackle.

Because this hasn't been a recurring issue, pointing out feels somewhat nitpicky, but better teams down the line will test any potential weakness. If the Gophers are indeed vulnerable on the edge, they'll suffer for it.

9. Minnesota's success on 3rd downs is due to good execution in those spots, but at least equally so to how they've done on early downs.

The top 3rd down conversion rate in FBS last season belonged to Coastal Carolina: 53.8 percent. Through three games, the Minnesota offense has dramatically outpaced that: They've converted 31 of 38 3rd downs. (This excludes a 3rd-down kneeldown against New Mexico State. If the Gophers weren't trying to convert, we can't say they actually failed.) Comparatively, their defense has allowed just four conversions on 36 opposing 3rd downs.

The difference between the Gophers' conversion rate and that they've allowed (70.5 points) would easily clear the 2021 Chanticleers' conversion rate on its own. Though those figures should stabilize at lower levels as the season continues, we can partially explain why it's been so high.

The Gophers have consistently won on early downs with their run game. Minnesota's season-long offensive stuff rate is just 8.2 percent, which would have been best among FBS offenses last season. As we saw in 2021, avoiding negative plays doesn't always actually mean being efficient, but the Gophers have been exceptionally efficient: Nearly two-thirds of their carries, according to collegefootballdata.com, have been successful. Despite the fact that opponents have prioritized stopping the run, the Gophers have dominated when running the ball.

By comparison, those opponents have posted a standard downs success rate of just 36.3 percent. In 2021, only Connecticut and UL-Monroe had worse marks than that over a full year. Minnesota hasn't faced a competent passing game and has stifled the run.

As a result, Minnesota has averaged a 3rd down distance of 4.8 yards. Opponents have averaged 8.6 yards to go on 3rd down.

The effectiveness of the Minnesota rushing attack has also shown up when the offense actually has gotten to 3rd down. Through three games, Minnesota is a perfect 15 for 15 on "power" situations — i.e., 3rd- and 4th-down runs with 2 or fewer yards to go. For the last few years, this offense has featured mastodonic offensive lines and tough running backs; it's essentially been purpose-built for short-yardage situations. (This is a big reason why Fleck should be aggressive on 4th-and-short.) When facing dramatically smaller defensive lines and worse athletes, this level of performance remains impressive but is unsurprising.

On the other side, Colorado was actually the first team this year to run against Minnesota in a power situation. There have been too few 3rd-and-shorts. Because of such a small sample, we cannot comment on the defense's effectiveness in these spots. We can still safely say that continuing to prevent the other team from even getting there will lead to further 3rd down success.

10. The Gophers enter Big Ten play with great potential, and with no guarantee of achieving it.

The situation in the Big Ten West looks just as favorable to the Gophers as it did a week ago.

Even granting that Purdue has had some rotten luck so far, and that Syracuse might be competent this year, the Boilermakers' bizarre loss this Saturday does not lend credence to the idea they are the division contender we thought they'd be. A blowout loss to Oklahoma immediately tempered any optimism Nebraska fans re-found after the firing of Scott Frost. Northwestern lost to Southern Illinois. Those three games don't look any more difficult than they did a week ago.

Among Minnesota's cross-division opponents, Rutgers is not embarrassing but far from intimidating, having barely slipped by Temple. Michigan State's 39-28 loss at Washington makes the upcoming game in East Lansing look more winnable, even if it's hardly a lock. A blind optimist could even spin Penn State's big win at Auburn as having entirely to do with the state of their opponents, seeing as how Auburn under Bryan Harsin more resembles the Curia of Pompey on the Ides of March in than it does a functional football program. (A more honest view: Penn State is probably good. We're still figuring out how good.)

Examining these early results, and bearing in mind Iowa's offensive woes, it becomes increasingly easy to talk oneself into the division race being between Minnesota and Wisconsin.

At the same time, the early chaos of the college football season does not suggest that confidence is wise. BYU was a Playoff dark horse after beating Baylor, and now is nothing again after getting destroyed by Oregon. Kansas State was supposed to have the most exciting offense in the Big 12, and then they scored just 10 points in a loss to Tulane. Air Force was the best team in the Mountain West, and Craig Bohl's Wyoming was hitting a nadir, and then the Cowboys won those teams' meeting in Week 3.

The top of the sport looks stable, but the middle? That's one big pile of mush. In the newest SP+ rankings, No. 16 Minnesota's rating is about as many points behind No. 3 Ohio State's as it is ahead of No. 58 West Virginia's. Nothing is certain, and no aspiration can be assumed to be fulfilled.

You don't have to work hard to find the light under which the road ahead of the Gophers appears traversable. The schedule is highly favorable. The roster, even after Autman-Bell's injury, is strong enough to win the West. This team can do it. Just as easily, they can win eight games and wind up in a mid-tier bowl game again. The next two-and-a-half months could produce fantastic, agonizing drama.

Next Game

We learned our first real lesson about Minnesota's first Big Ten opponent, Michigan State, this past weekend. In front of a raucous Washington crowd, the Spartans validated the biggest concern over their team entering the season: their secondary. Coordinator Scottie Hazelton's defense allowed 397 passing yards and four touchdowns without making a sack, and without a defensive back breaking up a pass.

That the Spartans' soft coverage burned them again is not terribly surprising. The ease with which Husky receivers got behind the secondary, however, will be cause for grave concern. The Spartans' strategy of backing so far off the line of scrimmage is supposed to help them prevent big plays. They failed entirely at that aim. Cornerback Ameer Speed, nickelback Chester Kimbrough, and safety Angelo Grose in particular had problems, each allowing explosive gains. Minnesota should pick on these defensive backs as much as possible.

The problem with that strategy might be edge rusher Jacoby Windmon. "Might" is the operative word here after Windmon's quiet night against Washington, when he didn't record one pressure (per PFF). Even so, his first two appearances since arriving from UNLV should not be ignored. He looks like an excellent speed rusher with plenty of bend. He's already made 5.5 sacks and forced four fumbles.

Windmon and hard-hitting safety Kendell Brooks, who has forced three fumbles himself, make ball security a greater concern for the Gophers.

Notably, Brooks has only gotten his opportunity due to an injury to Xavier Henderson, who was supposed to be a starter for MSU. Henderson hasn't played since the opener. He, defensive end Jeff Pietrowski, tackle Jacob Slade, and linebacker Darius Snow (who is out for the year) make for a significant list of absentees in the defense.

The offense, meanwhile, missed deep threat and ace returner Jayden Reed on the trip to Seattle due to an injury picked up going out of bounds against Akron. If Reed is again unavailable, that will be a blow, but the Spartans do have a reliable complement of skill players. True sophomore Keon Coleman leads the team in catches and had a big game against the Huskies. Slot receiver Tre Mosley is a talented target over the middle. Illinois transfer Daniel Barker provides versatility at tight end. Quarterback Payton Thorne has weapons to play with.

That extends to running back. Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard have both been physical, intelligent runners in their first three games as Spartans. They also couldn't make a dent last week, totaling just 30 yards on 17 carries. Offensive coordinator Jay Johnson — whom readers may recall as Tracy Claeys' playcaller in 2016 — stuck with the running game longer than he should have. The offensive line opened up plenty of holes against MAC teams but was well short of the quality needed against Washington. This isn't a new problem for Michigan State. Kenneth Walker III papered over a lot of blocking deficiencies. While Berger and Broussard are capable, neither is as gifted as Walker.

This will be Minnesota's first real test. Pummeling the dreadful teams that came to down the first three weeks doesn't count for nothing, but it will not compare to a road environment against a team that went 11-2 last year and still seems bound for eight wins or so. If the secondary is up to its task, if the defensive front holds, and if Morgan can perform without his most trusted receiver, then the Gophers can start off the Big Ten schedule with a win.