Midweek Review: Northwestern 3-31 Minnesota

1. The Minnesota ground attack pummeled Northwestern.

It wasn't immediate. The Gophers went three-and-out on their first two drives, with both of Mohamed Ibrahim's two carries getting stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage. But then, it all broke open:

From their third drive until the end of the game, the Gophers had no problem running the ball. On that possession, they ran seven times for 69 yards, closing with the first of Ibrahim's three touchdowns. Across the board, Minnesota's offensive line and tight ends were dominant.

In their previous game, the Gophers had to de-emphasize outside zone. Nebraska's lighter linemen and linebackers were quick enough to avoid getting reach-blocked, and to close on the ballcarrier as plays stretched to the flat.

Northwestern's front didn't have such success. Minnesota's blockers got off the line well and held their blocks. As a result, the Gophers ran outside without any problems...

...and they ran inside without any problems.

Ibrahim was as fearsome as ever. With the passing attack and the other running backs not impressing, Ibrahim has carried the ball 30 or more times for four straight games, but he doesn't appear to be slowing down. As P.J. Fleck said on Monday, Ibrahim's relatively lighter workload early in the season has probably made it easier for him to take more touches in November.

Regardless of this approach's sustainability — though such concerns are valid — it's working for now. Saturday was Ibrahim's 18th straight 100-yard game, and it was Minnesota's third game of 2022 where they ran for 300 yards. If you have a bad defense, the Gophers are here to run you over.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
line yards and success rate are via
collegefootballdata.com.

2. Athan Kaliakmanis couldn't get into a rhythm.

Against Northwestern, Minnesota didn't exactly need a second pitch. Knowing what's left on the schedule, though, it would have been more encouraging if they'd had one.

With Tanner Morgan out due to the injury he suffered at Nebraska, Kaliakmanis got his second college start. His 7-for-13, 64-yard line tells a comprehensive enough story. Though he demonstrated his rushing ability a few times, when in the pocket, Kaliakmanis was inconsistent. The way his accuracy fluctuated suggested he might have had difficulty gripping the ball in the cold. Whether it was because of a bad grip or simple mistakes, he had some bad misses.

It didn't help, either, that Dylan Wright fumbled one of the Gophers' longest completions of the day after taking a big hit. If Kaliakmanis was more effective, the Gophers would have picked up a few more big plays.

Plus, they probably would not have run the ball 58 times. Fleck and Kirk Ciarrocca still clearly don't trust their passing attack. (Which is undoubtedly why they're recruiting Wisconsin transfer Markus Allen.) The team's extreme run-pass split can be frustrating, but it's not entirely unjustified. Even in a blowout win, the passing problems show up.

3. If Morgan is available, Kaliakmanis hasn't done enough to start in his place.

To be clear, this is less about impressing me than it is overcoming a likely high standard from the coaches. Incumbency, with time, has its own inertia. The longer a player has been entrenched at a certain position, the harder it is to replace him. He's built up years of faith with his coaches and teammates, and much of that is justified for reasons that we on the outside can never know.

To unseat a fifth-year starter, Kaliakmanis needed to ace his opportunities, to leave no doubt that he is the quarterback on this team who gives Minnesota the best chance to win. He just hasn't done that.

In Big Ten games, Kaliakmanis has completed 24 of 53 attempts for 460 yards and thrown one touchdown against three interceptions. He looked poised in the Penn State game but didn't have a top-notch performance. He was key to the Gophers' comeback at Nebraska, opening up the offense with a greater downfield threat but was not consistent. He missed routine throws against Northwestern.

Does Kaliakmanis give this offense a higher ceiling? Probably. Has he given reason for optimism about his future with the Gophers? Unquestionably. But has he shown the necessary polish to convince Fleck to start him? No. I cannot believe that Fleck makes a change. When Morgan can play, Morgan will play.

4. Zach Evans impressed in his Gophers debut.

A preseason injury kept Evans on the shelf for a bit longer than hoped, but the intriguing freshman from Rockwall-Heath High School (Texas) finally got into a game on Saturday. His appearance was only a little more substantive than a cameo, but it was a good start to his college career: six carries for 29 yards and a touchdown.

I am on the record as a believer in Evans' skill set, and he looked pretty good against the Wildcats. Above all else, he showed good balance, keeping his legs moving through contact and smoothly changing directions. We'll have to see more of him to see how fast he is in the open field, but Evans has made a good first impression.

5. The Wildcats had just about zero run game.

Northwestern's main — if not only — source of offense is their running back, Evan Hull. He's one of the most-used players in college football, getting the ball as a runner and a receiver and doing everything he can to drag this woeful offense through a game. The problem is that one player can't do everything. And if everyone else can't do anything, then neither can he.

Northwestern had next to no passing game, so their chances in the game rode on Hull's legs. Except his offensive line was totally outmatched. Outside of one 23-yard burst in the third quarter, Hull barely made a dent; his other dozen carries gained just 31 yards. His teammates, on fewer carries, couldn't muster anything either.

The Northwestern line just couldn't move anyone. Minnesota's linebackers and safeties quickly reacted to the run, and, unimpeded to the ballcarrier, made plays. Jordan Howden and Tyler Nubin were active as usual, combining for 8.5 tackles (7 solo, 3 assisted). Here, Howden tackled Hull short of the line to gain after Jah Joyner tied up a double team by the NU left tackle and tight end:

Earlier in the game, Northwestern had two shots to convert a short-yardage situation in the red zone, and Minnesota turned them away. On 3rd-and-2, nose tackle Kyler Baugh came off the snap before most of the offensive line and helped disrupt the play. A pack of defenders made sure Hull didn't have anywhere to go.

On 4th-and-1, the Gophers won across the line of scrimmage, but what happened there hardly mattered. With Marshall Lang (in sort of a slot back position) going across the formation to the left, receiver Raymond Niro III on the right had to come down quickly to cut off Howden at the snap. Howden instead jetted by him and made the first hit. Terell Smith and Cody Lindenberg were there to clean up.

Throughout the game, the Gophers outmatched the Wildcats' blockers, swarmed to the ball, and laid some heavy hits. It was exactly what they were supposed to do against a bad offense, and they deserve credit for meeting that expectation so authoritatively.

6. The Gophers didn't face much of a passing threat, either.

Northwestern faced a few obstacles when trying to throw the ball. The first: None of their four quarterbacks who got into the game were very good.

As a team, the Wildcats completed less than half their passes. Ryan Hilinski and Carl Richardson each threw terrible interceptions. Hilinski didn't appear to even notice Nubin before passing right to him, and Richardson repeatedly underthrew his target before gifting Ryan Stapp his late interception.

Brendan Sullivan, who went 9-for-11 for 94 yards before exiting with an injury, at least did a big part of his job by hitting the target more often than not. But he couldn't improvise when his receivers didn't get open, and he was too slow to escape the pressure the Gophers generated.

That was Joyner who generated the initial pressure on the above play. The only official stat he only finished the game with was an assist on that sack, but he had a much better game than that. Pro Football Focus credited him with five pressures, and he forced the Wildcats' tackles into multiple holding penalties. Joyner, who has seen his playing time increase as he continues to affect quarterbacks, is putting things together as the season goes on. The caveat applies that recent opponents haven't had great offensive lines, but he's done more as a pass rusher than the other 5-technique ends on the roster. The Gophers need him to keep progressing and getting into the backfield. Hopefully, more sacks follow.

7. The Gophers still gave up a handful of big plays.

Northwestern couldn't do anything for most of the game, but they still had a few breakthroughs. On the first, we can't tell exactly what went wrong because of how unhelpful the broadcast was. But the Gophers were in zone, and all three of their linebackers bit hard on Sullivan's play-fake. Nubin somehow let the slower Lang behind him, which suggests he might have stepped forward a few yards as well. Either way, Sullivan's throw was accurate, and Lang had a 37-yard gain.

Later, Nubin was part of another defensive snafu. Sullivan hit Malik Washington near the sideline, in a spot between Smith and Nubin's zones. When Nubin flew in to make the tackle, he took out Smith, and Washington was able to pick up a couple more yards.

Note Baugh continuing the theme of generating pressure. This hit took
Sullivan out of the game.

The biggest problems were against the pass, but Minnesota also allowed a big run in the third quarter. On 3rd-and-5, the Gophers put on lighter personnel, pulling a tackle for an extra defensive end. Showing pressure, they ran a twist to the right side. Northwestern ran the other way and found a massive hole.

These plays were, in the end, inconsequential because the Wildcats couldn't take them all the way to the end zone, and they couldn't score after crossing midfield. They are nevertheless worth highlighting. Minnesota's defense has not been immune to the big play. Per collegefootballdata.com, they rank 52nd in explosiveness allowed entering Week 12. Western Illinois landed a few blows throwing deep; Purdue pulled away with a couple of late chunk plays; and Penn State scored a series of long touchdowns. The Gophers don't break often, but the extent of those breaks needs to be lessened. Winning by four scores doesn't change that.

8. Minnesota's special teams have been good this year.

In 2020, the Gophers were a wreck on special teams, and in 2021 they were better in parts. But this unit of the team, a nagging problem area in the Fleck area, has turned into a genuine success story.

Dragan Kesich has produced touchbacks on 85 percent of his kickoffs. Punter Mark Crawford, who was better on Saturday after an unremarkable performance at Nebraska, is having another decent season. Both Kesich and Crawford have gotten great coverage when their kicks have been returned; opposing kickoff returns have reached the 22.8-yard line on average, and opposing punt returns have averaged just 1.8 yards. The Gophers have yet to lose the field position battle in a game this year. That owes plenty to the kickoff and punt teams.

Quentin Redding has yet to exhibit more of the explosiveness that appeared against Purdue and Illinois, and he is sometimes overly aggressive in taking kickoffs out of the end zone. But in general, he has had a good first year as the Gophers' returner. He hasn't had any muffs yet, and he has a knack for bouncing around for a handful of extra yards of field position when fielding punts. When the ball is in his hands, he can help his team.

Then there's Matthew Trickett. Against Northwestern, he didn't have to hit any long field goals like he did the week prior, but he continued his streaks of successful kicks: Trickett hasn't missed a field goal since the Purdue game, and he hasn't missed an extra point attempt since last November. He's doing his job when called upon. If he can keep it up, Trickett's kicks could tilt the results in Minnesota's two season-closing rivalry games.

9. Lucas Finnessy has snuck into these last two games.

Rush end Danny Striggow left the Nebraska game with an injury. Being Thomas Rush's backup, Striggow didn't leave behind a ton of snaps to fill, but the Gophers still needed someone in his place. The choice was something of a surprise, though: Finnessy, the special teamer who entered the year as a linebacker. Austin Booker, a young player of whom the coaches have spoken well in the past, made the trip to Lincoln, but he didn't appear at all against the Huskers.

Striggow didn't play against Northwestern, either. That meant Finnessy came in briefly again — though not as brief as the previous two-play cameo — making 1.5 tackles (1 solo, 1 assisted) to go with last week's sack. Booker, meanwhile, didn't feature until garbage time. This confirmed that at least for now, Finnessy is third on the depth chart at rush end.

If nothing else, this is a small item to watch in the spring: With Rush on his way out, there will be more playing time available in 2023. If Finnessy's apparent position change is permanent, he and Booker will presumably compete for a second-string role behind Striggow.

10. We're not going to talk about it. Not yet.

But we will acknowledge it.

Next Game

Behold, Iowa:

Ranks among 131 FBS teams. Stats via collegefootballdata.com.

In a division full of one-sided teams, Iowa might be the most one-sided. The Hawkeyes are a parody of themselves, pairing at worst a top-three defense in the country with one of the worst offenses in the country. What is lacking on defense? Nearly nothing. What is lacking on offense? Many, many things.

We'll start with the offense. That the Hawkeyes don't have a better option at quarterback than Spencer Petras is a tremendous failure on the part of Kirk Ferentz and his son and offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz. Petras' struggles are well documented, though, so there's no need to pile on. We all know he's an inadequate Big Ten quarterback, even if he's not wholly incapable of making a good throw from time to time.

Iowa is not a quarterback away from offensive competence, however. The team's most reliable receiver is tight end Sam LaPorta, who is talented and versatile enough to justify such a workload but is not at the same level as past Iowa tight ends, like George Kittle and Noah Fant. Experienced slot receiver Nico Ragaini can catch a few short passes but offers no serious threat. The same goes for Arland Bruce IV. Luke Lachey, the No. 2 tight end, has contributed more in his redshirt sophomore season but not exactly broken out. Brady Brecht is the only other wideout to receive a noteworthy amount of playing time, and he has only seven catches.

While Iowa's receiving group is thinner than normal, it's not rare for that part of the team to be uninspiring. The gradual deterioration of the Iowa offensive line is a far greater issue. The starting five currently consists of four underclassmen and a redshirt senior, Jack Plumb, who made just his 12th career start against Wisconsin. Iowa's line stats are, across the board, among the worst in FBS. This unit can't protect their quarterback or open holes for their running backs.

Said running back group has, however, gotten a jolt recently from true freshman Kaleb Johnson. With no creases in the line, Johnson has been boom or bust, but his booms have been thunderous: He's scored three touchdowns of 40-plus yards this season. If the Hawkeyes get any explosive plays against the Gophers, it will almost certainly be through Johnson.

The Gophers' offense shouldn't expect any explosive plays in turn. Once again, coordinator Phil Parker's defense has excelled at keeping the ball in front of them. Even Ohio State, who scored 54 points off of mostly short fields, couldn't get Iowa to completely break open.

The Hawkeyes' strongest unit is their secondary. Riley Moss has been a menace for some time, and he's joined at cornerback this season by the emergent Cooper DeJean. DeJean, who entered the year penciled in as the nickelback ("CASH"), has stuck on the outside and become one of Iowa's most valuable players. He and Moss have totaled 20 passes defensed (15 broken up, five intercepted). All Iowa defensive backs are willing and effective tacklers as well; veteran strong safety Kaevon Merriweather, the other big playmaker on the back end, is a good example of that.

Closer to the line, Jack Campbell and Seth Benson offer considerable experience at linebacker. The Hawkeyes rank just 41st in completion rate allowed (58.3 percent), but they comfortably rank 1st in yards per catch allowed (8.8) because they keep the short gains short. Campbell and Benson are key to those efforts.

While the Iowa defensive line looks somewhat weak compared to the other defensive position groups, that is largely because of the strength of those players behind them. Tackles Logan Lee, Noah Shannon, and Lukas Van Ness average about 280 pounds, which hurts in short-yardage situations but allows them to penetrate gaps. The three have 21.5 total TFLs. There's no game-wrecking pass rusher, but Van Ness and ends Joe Evans and Deontae Craig can find their way into a quarterback's face.

In other words, do not expect points. This could be a horrible game of football to watch. Iowa likes to drag their opponents into the muck, which an ace special teams unit led by punter Tory Taylor makes them more equipped to escape than a lot of teams. Turnovers and field position will be as vital as in any game this season. The Hawkeyes can't consistently score without short fields. The Gophers can't hand them easy scoring opportunities. And against this defense, they'll need to steal extra possessions in Iowa territory. Additionally, Redding and Crawford will need to take advantage of the chances they'll have to return or answer Taylor's punts. One or two big special teams plays could make the difference between reclaiming Floyd of Rosedale or seeing Minnesota's losing streak against Iowa extend to eight games.