Midweek Review: Minnesota 23-16 Wisconsin

1. For the first time since 1994, Minnesota has won two straight over Wisconsin.

2. A fourth-quarter Minnesota surge, plus cascading Wisconsin errors, decided the game.

The third quarter belonged to Wisconsin. Minnesota followed a half-opening field goal with three punts, having gained 12 yards on 10 plays. The hosts' first three drives of the second half, though, produced 10 points, with Chimere Dike giving his team the lead with a 9-yard touchdown off a reverse. The Gophers' run game was stymied, their defense gave up ground thanks to a lack of pressure and a few incremental breaks against the run. The Badgers had seemingly gained the edge, while the Gophers faded.

And then the fourth quarter happened.

It started with a couple of underneath passes that the Gophers' receivers turned into decent gains. Athan Kaliakmanis, whose first half was excellent but who had faced too much pressure in the second, re-found his footing, delivering one pass on target to Brevyn Spann-Ford while getting walloped. He also got help from Daniel Jackson.

It was Minnesota's catch of the year, but a younger wideout made the most important play of the game.

The Gophers kicked a field goal to tie it, forced a three-and-out, and gradually moved the ball just past midfield. A stuffed Mohamed Ibrahim run set up 2nd-and-11.

The Gophers threw far more on passing downs this game than they usually do, but the Badgers had to account for a run for two reasons: The Gophers still had Ibrahim in the backfield, and the previous 11 games provided plenty of evidence they liked to give him the ball in these spots. In fact, in the first half, Ibrahim turned three passing downs into conversions; in the third quarter, his team had run on five of seven passing downs.

Even as offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca had changed his approach leading up to this play, Wisconsin had run on the mind. So when Kaliakmanis pulled the ball out of the mesh point of this run-pass option, the Badgers were out of position and flat-footed. As cornerback Alexander Smith stared into the backfield, Le'Meke Brockington snuck behind him on a slant. Kaliakmanis rifled the ball into Brockington, who took it another 34 yards without being touched.

With a couple of timeouts and more than 3 minutes left, Wisconsin still had a chance. And then Graham Mertz, true to form, threw an interception.

Altogether, Mertz had had a passable game. But as I noted last week, he still has a bad throw in him. He had a few bad throws on Saturday, and this was the one for which he paid the most. Asked after the game to break down the interception, Justin Walley said Mertz just overthrew the receiver.

Minnesota's drive started from the Wisconsin 35-yard line, but they could only pick up 5 yards. On came Matthew Trickett, who had made three field goals earlier in the game. A fourth would surely put the game out of reach. Up the ball went...

...and we entered the chaotic phase of this rivalry game.

With new life (but no timeouts), the Badgers got to work. Except on the second play of their drive, Mertz took a big hit from Braelen Oliver while scrambling from the pocket. Both players came off the field with injuries; though Oliver returned, Mertz was done for the game.

In his place: Chase Wolf, who quarterbacked the Badgers to victory over Minnesota in 2020 after another injury to Mertz. But he hadn't attempted a pass in 2022.

Wolf's first pass Danny Striggow nearly intercepted. But the combination of a 3rd down scramble, Isaac Guerendo's 14-yard pickup on 4th down, and an open completion to Dike had Wisconsin at the edge of the red zone. A pass interference call against Walley took them to the 5-yard line.

At which point the Badgers disintegrated. Holding against Riley Mahlman. False start against Tanor Bortolini. An off-balance incompletion over the end zone. False start against Tyler Beach. False start against Mahlman, which happened while Wolf's receivers were trying to figure out what the playcall was. Wolf missed another shot to the end zone and missed. After a short pickup, the Badgers faced 4th-and-goal from the 25-yard line, with time for just one snap. The miracle the Badgers needed was not to be.

Clearly, not everyone was on the same page with the backup quarterback in, and the Gophers benefited. This ending had at least as much to do with their opponents it did themselves, but it doesn't matter in the end. A winning score goes on the handle of Paul Bunyan's Axe all the same.

3. The Gophers' inability to generate pressure bit them again.

From the start of Big Ten play, Minnesota's pass rush has had a lot of problems that have in turn hurt the secondary. Against mobile quarterbacks, the Gophers overrun the pocket, allowing room to scramble. When the Gophers face passers not looking to run, prolonged plays and clean pockets give receivers time to get into space and give quarterbacks time to find them.

The latter scenario is what played out at Camp Randall Stadium. Even with Striggow's return, and even when blitzing, the Gophers couldn't penetrate one of the most sack-prone offensive lines in the Big Ten. Mertz's receivers came open, and he completed his passes to keep the Badgers moving.

Pro Football Focus had Mertz and Wolf seeing pressure on just five of their 38 total dropbacks. Jah Joyner, who has flashed some pass-rushing prowess recently, put in a good effort in the closing stages of the game. But Joyner never got a hand on Wolf and struggled just as much as Jalen Logan-Redding, Thomas Rush, and Striggow to generate pressure throughout the afternoon. Improvement in this area is long overdue.

Even so, Minnesota covered well enough, facing an erratic passer, that the Badgers only averaged 6.3 yards per pass attempt while Mertz was in the game. He didn't have many places to go downfield much of the time, which meant many of his completions were short, where the Gophers could make tackles short of the line to gain. The secondary, even missing its best player in Tyler Nubin, had a decent afternoon overall.

4. Wisconsin's handful of chunk plays on the ground were not enough to win the game.

Missing Braelon Allen didn't mean the Badgers wouldn't have someone capable at running back. Guerendo and Chez Mellusi, when healthy, have acquitted themselves quite well this season as complements to Allen. In the star's stead, these two could provide enough power and explosiveness to make due.

Minnesota's defense, though, kept the lid on them. Guerendo and Mellusi, on 26 combined carries, gained 10 or more yards four times, and the farthest either got was 14 yards downfield. Though only four of the Badgers' runs failed to gain yardage, many of their gains came in 2-to-4-yard increments, and they came in fairly inconsequential moments.

This is where stats like success rate, expected points added (EPA), and win probability (WPA) become useful. They introduce context to raw figures to answer the question of whether a "positive" play was actually a productive one.

By collegefootballdata.com's version of success rate — which defines a "successful play" based on down and distance — the Badgers were inefficient on the ground. Their mark of 30 percent lagged 10 points or so behind a roughly average performance.

By EPA, they ranked in the 33rd percentile of rushing performances this season.

By WPA, giving the ball to either two running back didn't help their chances of winning. If you remove Guerendo's most significant carry, a 14-yard gain on 4th-and-1 where the prevent-minded Gophers were content to give him the first down, his and Mellusi's runs were worth 14.5 win probability points to the Gophers. Wisconsin didn't actually hurt Minnesota running the ball.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
line yards and success rate are via
collegefootballdata.com.

The Gophers' linebackers and safeties had a good day fitting the run, tracking Wisconsin's outside runs and stepping up to lay good hits. See how Oliver set an edge here to allow Cody Lindenberg to make the tackle:

Lindenberg continued his excellent recent form, finishing with 7.0 tackles (all solo). Michael Dixon matched that total, playing a more impactful game filling in for Nubin at safety than he had all year in the slot. Trill Carter only had 1.0 tackle (solo), but he had a strong game holding his ground on the interior. But those three are not the only players to have stood out; the Gophers played an effective game all around.

5. Minnesota asked more of Kaliakmanis, and he delivered.

Minnesota takes a maddeningly run-first approach to offense. And when they do throw, they don't take risks with the ball. Especially since Kaliakmanis took over for an injured Tanner Morgan, the passes have been short, an attempt to make things easier on the redshirt freshman but putting a hard ceiling on the offense's ability to create explosive plays. And when there's no big-play threat, it becomes easier for a defense to cheat toward the line of scrimmage, which in turn hurts the run game.

Last week versus Iowa, Kaliakmanis barely threw at all. He was also under repeated pressure when dropping back. Facing another quality defense — especially one with a weaker secondary — the Gophers had to establish the passing game and keep their quarterback clean. Handing it off to Ibrahim 30-plus times wasn't going to cut it.

So they came out throwing: Seven of their first dozen plays were passes. One of them turned into a scramble, and Kaliakmanis completed five of the others for 83 yards, plus the game's first touchdown.

Dropback No. 5 gave our first indication that the Gophers would try to attack the Badgers' cornerbacks deep. This fade to Dylan Wright immediately put them within scoring range, and it was the first of six attempts at least 20 yards downfield.

Jackson and Spann-Ford, meanwhile, were again Kaliakmanis' most frequent targets and had top-notch performances. Spann-Ford has been a little inconsistent this year, but on Saturday he made his catches and proved his worth. Ciarrocca flexed him out wide and got the ball to him the flat, where he could make plays after the catch. Spann-Ford then tried hurdling as many Badgers as he could, which worked out pretty well.

As for the quarterback: This was the best game of Kaliakmanis' college career, a resounding statement that the position will be in good hands. He was composed in the face of the Wisconsin pass rush, keeping his head and delivering his throws both on target and on time. Linebacker Maema Njongmeta blew him up here, but he still found Spann-Ford over the middle:

As displayed in other GIFs in this post, Kaliakmanis' arm talent does so much for the Minnesota passing game: both in his ability to go deep and in the zip he can put on his passes. If the ball was just a little bit later on this play, one of the two defenders around Jackson would have had time to make a play on it. Instead, Jackson reined it in for a big gain (an impressive play in its own right).

It's hard not to be excited about a young quarterback who has the poise, the arm strength, and the accuracy that Kaliakmanis does. It's noteworthy that the Gophers actually passed on so many 2nd- and 3rd-and-longs: He dropped back on 16 of 26 passing downs before Minnesota's final drive (which should be excluded as an attempt at killing the clock). Kaliakmanis showed early on that Fleck and Ciarrocca could trust him this game, and he received that trust and ran with it.

In a game where Wisconsin bet they could win by stopping the run, Kaliakmanis proved them wrong.

6. After an up-and-down season, having lost reps to other receivers, Dylan Wright shone.

If there was a gameplan that would get Wright involved, it would be this one. Wright has been a frequent target deep and in the red zone since arriving to the U of M, owing to his size and his ability to make contested catches over defenders. With the Gophers making shot plays a priority, Wright got his chance to make a big impact.

Notably, though, Wright only caught one of his two deep targets, and Kaliakmanis couldn't hit him on a (predictable) red zone fade. Wright's other four receptions all came within 6 yards of the line of scrimmage, on routes that required him to generate separation and hurt the Badgers with the ball in his hands. Despite it being an unusual, more multi-dimensional role for him, Wright succeeded, gaining 33 yards after the catch.

This hasn't been the breakout season fans will have hoped to have seen from Wright. His 15 catches for 266 yards and a touchdown are pretty comparable to his output a year ago, if not a bit behind. But last November, he played a critical role in Minnesota winning back the Axe, and he played an even larger one in making sure the Axe came back the Twin Cities.

7. Ibrahim's streak of 100-yard games is over.

Iowa and Wisconsin both have stellar run defenses. The difference between the two, though, is where their talent is located. The Hawkeyes have defensive backs who are willing and capable tacklers, plus one of the best linebackers in the conference in Jack Campbell. The Badgers have a large, feisty three-man line, headlined by nose tackle Keeanu Benton.

It would be an oversimplification to say that the Gophers ran well against Iowa but not against Wisconsin because of that distinction, but it is fair to say that Wisconsin's line is the biggest reason why Ibrahim only ran for 70 yards. Benton in particular was extraordinary. He made 2.0 TFLs (1.5 of which were not sacks), bringing his season total to 10.0. His combination of power and quickness gave Minnesota's interior all sorts of issues, blowing up runs like this:

The rest of the Badgers were clearly ready to stop the run as well. Njongmeta had an excellent game, recording 11.5 tackles (9 solo, 3 assisted) and 2.5 TFLs (0.5 sack). Linemen Darryl Peterson and Rodas Johnson each made plays, and Nick Herbig made an impact even in just one half of play. Wisconsin's front seven looked just as good as advertised.

It was clear they'd done their homework on Minnesota's heavy short-yardage package, which this year has consisted of two plays. The first, as demonstrated against Western Illinois, is a simple inside run.

Ciarrocca chose the second play on 4th-and-inches: a quarterback sneak.

Wisconsin knew which play was coming likely because of how Nick Kallerup motioned across the formation. On the handoff, Kallerup shuffles back to where he came from after going down the line; on the sneak, he pauses at the quarterback for just a moment so that he can give a push. On Saturday, this proved a tell. The Badgers who weren't on the line of scrimmage committed to the A-gaps right as Kallerup slowed down, creating a wall through Kaliakmanis was never going to break. Minnesota stuck to their tendencies and got burned for it, missing an opportunity to go up two scores. (Fleck deserves credit for trying for once to convert, though.)

Overall, it was arguably Minnesota's worst rushing day of the season. By success rate, it was the worst; by yards per carry, only Purdue (2.4) was worse; by stuff rate, only Penn State (26.7 percent) was worse.

Two of the Gophers' most significant gains on the ground were actually by Kaliakmanis. As effectively as Morgan has navigated the pocket this season, Kaliakmanis has more speed, which makes him a more credible threat as a scrambler or when taking the ball on read option. According to Game on Paper, his two 3rd down conversions were worth 3.63 expected points to the Gophers' cause.

Coming back to Ibrahim: He now has 4,597 career rushing yards. Darryl Thompson sits just 57 yards ahead of him on the U of M leaderboard. We don't yet know if Ibrahim will skip Minnesota's bowl game, but I would be surprised if he doesn't. It's hard to tell where he'll go in the NFL Draft, or if a team picks him at all, but getting injured in the postseason would likely push him out of the draft entirely. One could not blame him for not taking that risk.

Those 57 yards are just a number, anyway. Ibrahim has made as good a case as he can that he's the best running back this program has ever seen. If this trip to Madison was Ibrahim's last ride, it was a pleasure to witness such special talent.

8. For the second straight week, Minnesota lost on special teams.

Trickett may have missed that late field goal, but I will exclude him from criticism here. He hit a couple of chip shots and a 50-yarder, and he remains perfect on extra point attempts this season. Barely missing one 48-yard kick does not make for a bad performance. Trickett did his job, just as he has all year. The same goes for Dragan Kesich, who had five touchbacks on five kickoffs.

The edge in the rest of the special teams battle, though, belonged to the Badgers. Andy Vujnovich out-punted Mark Crawford by average distance (43 yards to 41.8), by punts within the 20 (2 to 0), and by average resulting field position (21.6 yards from the end zone to 33.5). The Gophers consistently faced long fields, and Vujnovich was a major reason.

On top of that, Minnesota couldn't get anything going in the return game. Their best field position of the day, outside of the drive after Walley's interception, came after a Gavin Lahm kick went out of bounds. The Badgers kicked away from Quentin Redding, instead forcing Clay Geary to either fair catch or handle the returns himself. Geary only gained 18 yards on two tries. When Redding did get the ball at the start of the second half, he could only get to the 19-yard line.

As a punt returner, Redding didn't make a difference either. The Badgers swallowed up his one return that counted for just a 3-yard gain. Redding may have been able to field Vujnovich's final punt of the evening but instead let it roll an extra 8 yards. These moments did not cost the Gophers the game — Minnesota's game-winning touchdown came on the drive following the punt Redding let roll — but like the team's punting and kick return issues, they nudged the odds in Wisconsin's favor. In a close game, special teams matter all the more.

9. In the end, the Purdue game decided the Big Ten West.

Just as it looked it might in the moment, Minnesota's loss to Purdue cost them a division title. We just took a long, bizarre route to get there.

In the most even, chaotic division in college football, the Gophers still had a chance to take the title after their loss to the Boilermakers. But they were outmatched against Penn State, made too many errors against Illinois, and came up barely short against Iowa. It still would have taken two extra wins to surmount defeat to Purdue. That game was close or tied well into the fourth quarter, largely due to sluggish offense, and late defensive breakdowns ultimately gave the game away.

It's not a mischaracterization to say that Minnesota was just a few plays, in just one game, away from winning the West. As I said then, the theme of that one game was wasted opportunities. Those plays, and that theme, ended up following the team through the end of the year.

10. For both programs, offseason change has already begun.

Around 16 hours after Wolf's final incomplete pass, after Samuel Pickerign was the first Gopher to get his hands on Paul Bunyan's Axe, after Mariano Sori-Marin smoked a victory cigar at the postgame presser, Pete Thamel reported that Wisconsin was pushing to make Luke Fickell their next head coach. By the afternoon, UW announced the hire officially. Fickell is one of the best coaches in America, and his arrival immediately makes life harder for Minnesota.

But there is plenty going on in the Gophers' own household, with potential for more. Defensive backs Jalen Glaze and Steven Ortiz Jr. and 3-technique Gage Keys have elected to transfer. Considering the logjams at other positions, there will be others. Ex-Badgers receiver Markus Allen, who has been exploring options since mid-October, committed to the Gophers on Monday. The Western Michigan head coaching job opening could also lure away one of Fleck's assistants, or at the very least drive up someone's salary. One of those assistants, Joe Rossi, may leave this offseason to be the defensive coordinator at a bigger program. And then there's the December signing period for high school recruits. There is no time to exhale in college football.

Next Game

We don't yet know where the Gophers are going for bowl season. The good news: It's probably not Detroit or Phoenix.

Things are less clear beyond that, but projections have it down to four possibilities. The Athletic puts them in the Pinstripe Bowl. CBS Sports and Athlon's prognosticators have Minnesota playing an ACC team in Charlotte. Both of ESPN's predict Nashville; so do College Football News and the Action Network. 247Sports and Pro Football Network (too optimistically, in my opinion) have the Gophers returning to Tampa, playing on January 2.

If your main desire is avoiding any conflict with the work week, Nasvhille or Tampa is what you want. This time of year, Nashville is probably the most interesting of the four destinations as well, but Charlotte and New York are two the Gophers have never visited. Glen Mason's teams played in the Music City Bowl three times, and Fleck's Gophers just faced Auburn in Tampa three years ago.

There's not a destination that will clearly provide a better opponent, meanwhile. The SEC often sends good teams to Tampa, but the menagerie of seven- or eight-win teams in the conference does not inspire. Though they've all flashed some ability this year, you can find problems with each of Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, and South Carolina. That group of four likely makes up the list of candidates for the Music City Bowl as well. Whoever the ACC sends to Charlotte or New York — Duke? NC State? Florida State? — will be of a similar level.