Midweek Review: Ohio State 45-31 Minnesota

Minnesota figured to be a decent team this season. Ohio State figured to be one of the best in the country. After the Buckeyes left Minneapolis with a 45-31 win Thursday, the Gophers having led for stretches, it makes sense to stick to our assessments of each. Even so, we can take away some things that can inform our opinion on the season ahead for Minnesota.

1. The Gophers' defense burst too many times.

Ohio State started its first drive 8 yards from their own end zone. A few plays later, and the Buckeyes had more space, but they faced a 3rd down. To get an early stop against what might be the best offense in the country would have been a significant early victory for Minnesota. The Gophers' defense is likely to be more reliable in 2021 than they were last year, but it was hard to imagine them keeping the Buckeyes off the board often Thursday. To have a chance, the Gophers needed to take advantage of opportunity they had to prevent OSU from scoring.

Instead, this happened.

The Buckeyes opened in a funky form of quads to the field, with two receivers stacked on top of one another in the slot and tight end Jeremy Ruckert positioned as a wing back. This forced the Gophers' defensive backs over the field side, essentially leaving rush end Boye Mafe and safety Tyler Nubin the only defenders protecting the boundary. At the snap, Ruckert pulled across the formation and kicked out Mafe. Miyan Williams got outside too quickly for Nubin to change course after he came crashing down to make a play. Williams kept running for a 71-yard touchdown.

That was one of five offensive touchdowns the Gophers allowed, and every one of them went at least 38 yards. On a night where redshirt freshman C.J. Stroud was merely okay in his first career start, Minnesota nevertheless got burned by OSU's superior athletes.

One place those explosive plays came from was crossing routes off of play-action. Here's one example of the Buckeyes using this in the short game, with Ruckert coming across the formation. The play fake, combined with the pulling center and Stroud's rollout in the opposite direction of the route, drew the linebackers' attention away from Ruckert. He then picked up enough yards after the catch for a 1st down.

And now an example of a crosser used most devastatingly: with Chris Olave sneaking across the field into an open space behind the linebackers and nickelback Justus Harris. With the safeties covering deep routes by other receivers, there was no one who could stop Olave from scoring.

Then there's the swing pass to TreVeyon Henderson in the fourth quarter. P.J. Fleck said the Gophers prioritized keeping plays in front of them — which didn't work, obviously — but on 3rd-and-5, defensive coordinator Joe Rossi called for a six-man rush. Throw in some pre-snap confusion in the secondary — which the Gophers couldn't afford to correct by burning a timeout — and Henderson had all the space in the world. He barely needed his blockers as he darted to a 70-yard touchdown.

We have to see Minnesota play worse offenses to know how much of the defense's big-play problem is Ohio State-related and how much of it is on the Gophers themselves. It's probably a bit of both. But all we can do is wait before saying so definitively.

2. Ohio State's offense won handily at the line of scrimmage.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
Line Yards and Success Rate are via
collegefootballdata.com.

It's hard to find something positive about the Gophers' run defense Thursday. They didn't put the Buckeyes behind schedule, they allowed three-fifths of OSU's carries to gain 4 or more yards, and, as discussed, they gave up some chunk plays. In simplest terms: It was bad.

The troubles began up front. Micah Dew-Treadway got pushed around, Nyles Pinckney was unremarkable, and Val Martin looked outmatched. The highest-graded Gophers tackle on Pro Football Focus, DeAngelo Carter, finished with just one assisted tackle. OSU's tough blocking group of Thayer Munford, Nicholas Petit-Frere, and company did its job. Let this image tell you the story more succinctly:

Even when parts of the Gophers' line held up, the linebackers often didn't. Here, Ruckert pancaked Mariano Sori-Marin on the edge, and Jack Gibbens couldn't catch Master Teague once the running back went through Martin's gap.

The front six improved a lot over the course of last season and added experience through the transfer portal. This should have been an area where the defense was relatively sound. And facing Ohio State to open 2021 is a hard assignment, so there's a good chance such a poor performance ends up a relative aberration this season. However, OSU doesn't have the only good offensive line on Minnesota's schedule, so the Gophers will have some work to do to prevent more days like this one.

3. Olave and Wilson are unfair.

The one word that can describe Olave as a route runner is "effortless." He moves so fluidly on every play, whether he's accelerating past a corner who isn't backed off enough or cutting outside on a corner route. "Cutting" isn't even the right way of putting it, because it's not deliberate at all; he just glides. And despite being the best player on the field, who should always demand the defense's attention, he finds space with ease.

Then there's the shifty Wilson, who creates space for himself by suddenly changing direction and then using his speed to pull away. See his touchdown against Calvin Swenson.

The two Ohio State stars combined for 197 yards and three scores on nine catches. They're bound to spend the rest of the year torturing defensive backs en route to being 1st round picks in the NFL Draft.

4. OSU's playcalling and surrounding talent made things easier on Stroud.

As the successor to Justin Fields, Ohio State's newest blue-chip starter entered his first start with lofty expectations. That Stroud did not meet them has more to do with how high they were than with his performance. Even so, he wasn't without fault on Thursday. He had a handful of errant throws. Most of the time, they were relatively harmless overthrows to the sideline or on deep routes, but, but other times, Stroud just didn't have it.

If you figure out what Coney Durr is doing leaving Wilson open, let me know.

For the most part, Stroud was good enough. Being surrounded by elite skill players means "good enough" isn't a high bar to clear. Offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson, for his part, helped by supplying his quarterback with a diet of short passes. According to PFF, only 78 of Stroud's 294 yards were through the air; the rest came after the catch.

CJ Stroud's pass map from Thursday night.

1. Ohio State uses the screen as an extension of the run game better than anyone on the planet and has for a while.

2. Good LORD, that's some all-or-nothing downfield passing. pic.twitter.com/MSwyWT9qh9

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 6, 2021

OSU also moved the pocket on deep passes to protect Stroud, who finished the game without being sacked. Minnesota's star edge rusher, Mafe, had just one pressure. The time Stroud had was crucial to letting the first-time starter settle into the game.

5. The Gophers ran the ball better than expected, but their overreliance on the ground game again became a problem.

Ohio State's offense is so good that it creates a conundrum for opposing offenses: To stand a chance, you need to limit the number of possessions. With more opportunities, the Buckeyes' superior talent will prevail. So holding onto the ball for long periods of time is essential.

That's really tough, however, when OSU has such a strong defensive line. The Buckeyes' run defense was one of the best in the country in 2020. Tackle Haskell Garrett creates problems for everyone. Coordinator Kerry Coombs plays a single-high look as his base, putting more bodies in and around the box.

Meanwhile, OSU ranked 113th in completion rate allowed last season, they lost all their linebackers with starting experience, and starting cornerback Sevyn Banks was unavailable. So to keep the ball moving, Minnesota should have taken advantage of the weak Ohio State pass defense, right?

Yes — but that was only possible to an extent. This is again due to the players OSU has up front. The Buckeyes have too many fearsome pass rushers for deep passes to develop. And a passing game that doesn't offer a deep threat doesn't offer much of a threat at all.

Facing this quandary, co-offensive coordinators Mike Sanford Jr. and Matt Simon decided to lean into their offense's strength: a super-efficient running game, fueled by size and depth on the line and loads of talent in the backfield. To run the ball against this defense, though, Sanford and Simon had to very literally go big. Minnesota used six linemen on just under 9 percent of plays last year; against Ohio State, that percentage more than doubled. On top of that, the Gophers used seven-limeman sets almost just as much on Thursday, and for one goal line run, they trotted out an eighth. In total, Minnesota used a six-man line or bigger on 28 of 75 snaps.

Did it work? Kind of, but not really. Loading the line and taking a run-first approach all but guaranteed a seven-man box on just about every play. It at times got even more crowded, especially with 1 or 2 yards to go:

The above play ended in a touchdown run, so Minnesota was able to get something done. I'd even say the offensive line — not to mention tight end Ko Kieft — did pretty well, considering the numerical disadvantage they regularly faced. The Gophers avoided negative plays and were effective in short-yardage spots, and Mohamed Ibrahim took advantage of the times he got into space. But you cannot call it a clear success.

Minnesota was mostly inefficient. Not even a third of the Gophers' runs gained at least 4 yards. Yet the Gophers totaled 48 carries, matching their season high from a year ago. The offense became predictable.

A big reason why it was so predictable: running on 1st down. Though Fleck likes to talk about "balance," he obviously prefers to establish the run instead of taking an actually balanced approach, as evidenced by how often his Gophers have run the ball on 1st downs. The last time we saw this team, they ran on nearly three-quarters of 1st downs against a top run defense and had their worst rushing performance of 2020.

Against another top run defense, Minnesota ran the ball on 81 percent of their 1st downs on Thursday. It didn't lead to success early, and it didn't do so late.

This approach set the Gophers back: On average, they faced a 2nd down distance of 7.7 yards, and they faced a passing down on 57 percent of 2nd downs. (This does not consider penalty-enforced repeated downs and does include 2nd downs erased by penalties. For example: In the 3rd quarter, Minnesota faced a 2nd-and-30 due to consecutive penalties, but I don't include it because having 30 yards to go had little to do with the Gophers' 1st down outcome. The play that counts in my calculation is the 2nd-and-7 that originally followed the previous 1st down.)

Minnesota cannot run over whoever is standing on the other side of the ball. Though the Gophers' line is humongous and experienced, there is a limit to how much a rushing attack can succeed when the opponents know what is coming. Either Fleck, Sanford, and Simon learn that lesson, or it'll keep getting taught to them.

Speaking of habitual problems of the Fleck era...

6. Minnesota has not found a third idea in the red zone.

When the Gophers are in scoring position, you can count on one of two things:

1. Runs behind heavy personnel, often from the Wildcat package:

2. An inefficient goal line fade that looks cool when it works but probably won't:

I've written about this many times. (I even wrote about it after the spring game.) Goal-line fades are a bad idea. When you have receivers like the Gophers have had, with great aerial ability, fades become slightly more defensible. But when the success of your play depends on a contested catch, with no alternative routes for the ball, you are taking a major risk. Calling it "major" might seem extreme when the most common cost of failure is an incomplete pass, but that's a down lost in a crucial situation. Even a guy like Tyler Johnson can't catch fades or draw pass interference calls often enough to make going back to this well worthwhile in the long run. Minnesota's red zone offense needed to evolve under Kirk Ciarrocca, and it needs to evolve under Sanford.

7. Ibrhim's injury hurts — but it does not mean the end of the Gophers' hopes in 2021.

I struggle to think of a more muted scene in that stadium than when Ibrahim got hurt at the end of the third quarter following Ohio State's 21-7 run. At that point, it was clear the game was over, and the Gophers' best player was not going to play any further part in it. Not only that, Fleck confirmed Monday: Ibrahim is done for the season.

I am more worried about what this injury means for Ibrahim than I am what it means for the team. Ibrahim turned down NFL money to finish his degree, and he might not make as much money as he would have had he just left school. (His priorities are his own, for the record — just as players shouldn't be faulted for leaving early, if getting his degree was that important to him, nobody can tell him what he should have done.) It works out well that he can profit off of his name, image, and likeness without NCAA-enforced penalties for the first time this year, but that won't be the same as pro money. If Ibrahim does not play another down for the University of Minnesota, but he is able to have a good NFL career and pocket the fortune that should come with it, every Gopher fan should be okay with that.

As for the current Gophers: Outside of offensive guard, there is not a position on the team better equipped to lose its best player than running back. Though at the college level, there can be such a thing as a "special" running back, and Ibrahim is one of them, the position is not as vital to a successful running game as good blocking and intelligent scheme.

Not only that: Minnesota is loaded with running backs. Treyson Potts could have been a high-end Big Ten running back in 2022, but he'll have the opportunity to show he is one a season early. I'm less high on Cam Wiley and Bryce Williams, but they have enough experience to be trusted. Ky Thomas should be an archetypal Gophers back once he gets some touches. And if Minnesota has to dig deep, there's 4-star true freshman Mar'Keise Irving. There is no shortage of options. None is likely to be as good as Ibrahim, but as a group, they can absolutely man the gap left by the Gophers' biggest star.

8. Minnesota threw the ball reasonably well but faced a ferocious Ohio State pass rush.

Tanner Morgan's first game of 2020 was fine overall, though he probably should have finished the night with at least a couple of interceptions. One was wiped away by a questionable roughing the passer call on a throw that way overshot Brevyn Spann-Ford:

Additionally, five of Morgan's throws that counted were broken up, which is a number that needs to go down in the future. The more defenders get their hands on passes, the more likely those passes end in interceptions.

Minnesota tried to get the deep passing game going more often than Morgan's pass chart shows — OSU's Ryan Watts prevented a long touchdown by committing pass interference — but the Gophers did attack the intermediate area more often than a season ago. Just over a half of Morgan's attempts were between 10 and 19 yards downfield.

Even so, it seemed as though the Gophers could have taken greater advantage of the middle of the field. Their usual slants off of RPOs or play-action were still present, but Sanford didn't often enough try to exploit that the Buckeyes' linebackers were cramming the box and susceptible to play-action. The following pass to Mike Brown-Stephens came with less than 5 minutes remaining, while the Gophers were down 14 points. OSU had no reason to think a run was coming, yet they bit on Morgan's fake anyway.

Leaning more on the quick game was also necessary against OSU's defensive line. Per PFF, Morgan was pressured on 10 of 30 dropbacks,which is far too many. Zach Harrison was particularly disruptive (both as a rusher and against the run), contributing two pressures and causing this strip-sack that turned into a touchdown.

On that strip-sack, it should be noted, Morgan was about to hit an open Dylan Wright on a corner route. Wright had an impressive Minnesota debut, highlighted by a second-quarter touchdown that showed off how effective he can be in the air. The Gophers will be glad to see Chris Autman-Bell eventually return, but Wright, Daniel Jackson, and Brevyn Spann-Ford showed Minnesota can still throw the ball without him.

9. Fleck's 4th-and-1 decision wasn't the right decision because it paid off. It was just the right decision.

Already down 10 early in the second quarter to the Big Ten favorites, Minnesota simply could not afford a third scoreless drive. With a lesser offense on the other side, maybe a 4th-and-1 at the Gophers' 29-yard line wasn't the time to be aggressive. In the aggregate, it's roughly a toss-up. But in this game, the only way the Gophers were going to hang with their opponents was if they took risks. Fleck doesn't always make the right decision in similar spots, but here, he did and trusted his offense to get 1 yard. His reward wasn't just keeping the drive alive, but a spot in the red zone.

The Gophers don't keep the game competitive as long as they did if Fleck doesn't make this decision. If he does more of this in the future (and develops a greater sense of urgency late in games), he'll keep his team in more games.

10. We don't know what this team is yet.

I've tried to write about this game in its own context. What happened Thursday night should inform what we think about this team, not define it. Most of what we thought before is still valid, especially considering this game just about matched expectations. There were surprises, but nothing that demands that we completely shift our views. Readers, particularly members of the "preseason rankings are meaningless" crowd, should remember that preseason polls are pretty predictive, and the first few weeks of the season are often hazy. As much as we all crave certainty, we aren't close to it.

Leading into their idle week, the Gophers have two easy games, a non-conference game against a team we're still figuring out, and a conference game that could be tricky. A month from now, we'll know much more about Minnesota than we do today.

Next Game

Minnesota's next opponent, Miami (OH), is difficult to gauge because Chuck Martin's RedHawks played just three games last season. As a result of such a small sample, their team-level statistics existed almost exclusively in extremes. Per collegefootballdata.com, Miami's offense ranked 118th in success rate a season ago, but 1st in explosiveness. The RedHawks' defense led the nation in havoc rate and was one of the worst in the country in the red zone. That defense on standard downs was super-efficient but prone to giving up chunk plays. On passing downs, it was inefficient but never gave up chunk plays. There's too much noise to discern what kind of season Miami will have in the MAC, and that's before considering last year's costly injuries and the problems created by the pandemic.

The RedHawks opened the season with their traditional rivalry game against Cincinnati, which ended in their 15th straight loss to the Bearcats. (The all-time series is now tied at 59 wins apiece, with seven ties.) It wasn't close, either: The RedHawks' only points came in the fourth quarter of a 49-14 rout. Quarterback A.J. Mayer was 9-of-28 for 109 yards, and the offense's rushing success rate was 27 percent.

Brett Gabbert has been the better passer but might not be ready to start yet after some poor luck with injuries this preseason. Whether it's Mayer or Gabbert, the quarterback's top target will be receiver Jack Sorenson, who has led the team in catches for three seasons running. Miami has size on the line — the five starters' average weight is 311 pounds — and options in the backfield — three tailbacks enter Saturday with more than 100 career carries, and three others got the ball versus Cincinnati — but the RedHawks are unlikely to cause the Gophers many problems on the ground.

What Miami might do is create some negative plays on defense. Defensive end Kameron Butler has made 17.5 career tackles for loss (8.0 sacks) and twice been named to the All-MAC Second Team. Safety Sterling Weatherford had an interception against the Bearcats and over his college career has made 29.0 havoc plays, including 18.5 in 2019. (For comparison: Antoine Winfield Jr. made 13.5 that year.) Linebackers Ryan McWood and Ivan Pace have combined for 24.5 havoc plays since 2019. The RedHawks have some legitimate playmakers with loads of game experience.

Miami also allowed 15.4 yards per completion last year and 14.8 yards per completion against Cincinnati. The Bearcats also averaged 9.1 yards per non-sack carry. So the RedHawks' are quite vulnerable to explosive plays.

Minnesota should handle this opponent comfortably. Maybe there are some early hiccups if Butler sacks Morgan once or twice or Weatherford gets another pick, but the RedHawks will not be able to keep up once the Gophers start to pull away.