Midweek Review: Miami (OH) 26-31 Minnesota

The important thing ultimately is that Minnesota won on Saturday, and for a long stretch firmly in control of proceedings. But the manner in which they won, by letting Miami back into the game with predictable offense, untimely penalties, and getting beaten in pass defense, after the RedHawks produced nothing in the first half — that's all reason for totally valid concern. The Gophers have a lot to correct before their trip to Boulder.

1. It started off so well for the Gophers' pass defense.

Miami couldn't throw the ball against Cincinnati with A.J. Mayer in Week 1. With Brett Gabbert in at quarterback on Saturday, the RedHawks were probably going to fare better. But in the first half, that didn't look like it was going to be true. Gabbert's longest throws fell incomplete. When he completed passes, Miami's receivers didn't pick up additional yards. His pocket wasn't clean. Gopher defenders broke up a couple passes. Going into halftime, Miami was down 21-3, and a big reason was that Gabbert was 5-for-12 for 57 yards. 

2. After a while, Miami's passing game got better results... but it still wasn't a great day.

Gabbert's initial struggels didn't hold up, in part because he didn't actually play that poorly from the beginning. His misses weren't by much, and he hit his receivers in the hands on a couple incompletions. Though he didn't put in a great first-half performance, Gabbert was not the main reason Miami was down.

After halftime, the RedHawks started connecting on some of their deep throws. Roughly two-thirds of their second-half passing yardage came on four plays, and only one came with significant yards after the catch.

The first big completion was this fade from Mayer to Jack Sorenson. Though Terell Smith kept in phase and had tight coverage, the underthrown pass gave Sorenson a chance, and he set up 1st-and-goal with a great catch.

Sorenson made another big play against Smith, this time for a touchdown. Again, Smith was tight to the receiver, allowing a small window for a completion, but again, the quarterback (Gabbert) found that window behind Sorenson.

Gabbert's second touchdown looked nearly identical to the first. Instead of Smith playing good coverage, though, it was Coney Durr, and instead of Sorenson making the catch, it was Mac Hippenhammer.

Obviously, it would have been better if Smith and Durr prevented those touchdowns, but it's hard to say either did a lot wrong on these plays. Sometimes, receivers just win contested catches.

And on the whole, Miami's deep passing game was ineffective. The RedHawks were 3-for-10 on pass attempts of at least 20 yards (per Pro Football Focus), which is a poor conversion rate at that range. The Hippenhammer score would not have happened if a Rashad Cheney Jr. roughing the passer on 4th down hadn't negated a deep incompletion just the play before it.

Without those three big fades, the RedHawks' second-half completion rate was just 50 percent, and they averaged a mediocre 11.9 yards per completion. (The latter would have ranked 76th in FBS over a full season in 2020.) Tyler Nubin intercepted a pass as well. So while those chunk plays hurt, in the aggregate, Minnesota did a decent job defending Miami's all-or-nothing passing attack.

3. Minnesota prevented big runs and made a few tackles for loss.

Though it only was a fine day by most teams’ standards, Saturday qualified as the best performance coordinator Joe Rossi's run defense has had since 2019.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
Line Yards and Success Rate are via
collegefootballdata.com.

Though Miami was relatively efficient on the ground, Minnesota succeeded in three key stats: Stuff Rate, Highlight Yardage, and Opportunity Rate. The numbers the Gophers achieved in those categories were all better than what they had in any game in 2020. The Gophers created negative plays and didn't get gashed. If they were ever able to say one of those things in a game last season, they couldn't say the other.

Linebackers Mariano Sori-Marin and Jack Gibbens each improved greatly on their performances from a week ago and looked like a solid starting pair. Sori-Marin made 6.5 tackles (3 solo), including 1.5 tackles for loss, and altogether looked more like the player he was at the end of last season.

4. The Gophers have yet to sack an opposing quarterback through two games.

How much should we be concerned about Minnesota's lack of results in the pass rush? Like a lot of the less-than-positive bits from this game, the answer is "somewhat concerned, but not terribly." Ohio State's line is probably one of the best in the country, and the Buckeyes made some tactical adjustments to keep C.J. Stroud comfortable. Miami doesn't have a great line, but the RedHawks also helped out their quarterbacks with friendly scheming. When they weren't going deep, Gabbert and Mayer attempted a good number of quick, short- to intermediate-length passes that relied on timing. Even when the rush got home, the ball was out.

Even with those quick passes, according to PFF, Minnesota still finished the game with 10 pressures on Miami's 36 dropbacks. Though it's a disappointment to not convert those opportunities, that's a pretty good day. It should only be a matter of time before one of those pressures ends in a sack.

5. Treyson Potts kept the chains moving — when his blockers weren't outnumbered.

Obviously, Minnesota will miss Mohamed Ibrahim. But as I wrote before the season and again last week, Minnesota has the reinforcements at running back for the team's rushing attack to not see a tremendous drop in production.

Potts, who missed chunks of the 2020 season with injuries, has flashed potential in small samples. Saturday, he got his first college start and did as much to reassure Minnesota fans as he could. He showed off balance, burst, vision, and even a little power as part of a 34-carry, 178-yard performance that included two touchdowns.

Where Minnesota ran into trouble, however, was when playcaller Mike Sanford Jr. leaned on the team's heavy sets. Miami knew that Minnesota likes to deploy extra linemen and force-feed the ball to opposing defenses, and after some initial successes, the Gophers' size couldn't overcome the fact that there were too many defenders to block. Just one of Potts' eight runs of 7 or more yards came when Minnesota fielded a bigger line.

Runs in this table do not include scrambles.

(Note that box counts on individual plays can be imprecise. I included in-line tight ends and extra linemen as the outer bounds of the "box" when applicable, which not everyone may do. Additionally, due to moving defenders and TV camera angles, my interpretation of the box might be different from someone else's. And then there are defenders who line up just off the edge and are in a good position to stop the run but aren't technically in the box. So view the above table for its general point rather than its specific figures.)

To Sanford's credit, the offense adjusted its approach. Yes, the Gophers ran too much, but they did so more intelligently. Rather than continue to draw defenders to the line with heavier personnel, the Gophers significantly reduced how often they used six or more linemen in the second half. On their last three drives, they did so on just one snap. Accordingly, RedHawks fielded a five- or six-man box for most of the game's late stages. That gave Potts the room he needed: He ran for 83 yards on 12 fourth-quarter carries and gave the Gophers the breathing room they needed with this touchdown.

To keep the run game going in the future, Minnesota needs to not only keep up this tactical shift, but also pass more out of heavy personnel. If opposing defenses fear the passing game even with six or seven linemen on the field, that will create more opportunities for the running game.

6. P.J. Fleck abandoned the pass in the second half.

Tanner Morgan ran more times than he's used to but had one of his least active games as a college passer. He threw just 17 times officially (19 times, counting attempts erased by penalties) for 112 yards, with no attempts in the fourth quarter.

Morgan's eight completions look better after accounting for how often his passes hit receivers in their hands. By my count, there were five drops; I could have given one or two more. PFF counted just two drops but has the Gophers as going 0-for-3 on contested targets. Though the RedHawks closed down the Gophers' receivers well, the bottom line is that Morgan needs his teammates to hold on to the ball.

Though much of it was surely overconfidence in his team's run game, Fleck cited those drops as a major reason the Gophers threw so little Saturday. While I don't agree with the extent to which he implemented that choice, it was fair for Minnesota to stick to the ground game, especially as it regained its effectiveness in the fourth quarter.

7. Dylan Wright continued to look like Morgan's top target without Chris Autman-Bell.

Wright contributed three of the drops I counted but mostly continued to demonstrate what caliber of receiver he can be. He led the team with 73 yards on three catches, and he twice drew defensive pass interference calls when Miami's Cedric Boswell couldn't track Wright downfield. His most impressive feat was this 31-yard tip-toed catch (which Morgan placed well, even if throwing on the run into a cluster of four RedHawks wasn't overly smart):

Daniel Jackson had a more efficient game as Morgan's short-range target. When Autman-Bell returns, the three of them should make for a dangerous trio of wideouts.

8. Injuries haven't wrecked the Gophers, but Minnesota hasn't had great luck staying healthy so far.

To say the Gophers' list of injuries keeps getting longer is only a partially true way of putting it, considering how much the severity of those injuries has varied. But it's not untrue.

There's the long-term injury to Ibrahim, of course. Autman-Bell was unavailable. Safety Jordan Howden warmed up but did not play, requiring sophomore Michael Dixon (who missed some preseason practices) to fill in for him. Josh Aune hasn't dressed so far this year.

Two more players left Saturday's game prematurely. The first was true freshman Justin Walley, who delivered a big hit covering a kick return but got the worst effects of the impact. He was second in line on the depth chart at cornerback, which means the secondary is uncomfortably close to significantly testing its depth.

The second was Wright, who was pulled after colliding with a handful of RedHawks running a slant. With a healthy Autman-Bell, Minnesota could absorb losing Wright without much of a hitch. Even so, Wright has looked like a legitimate weapon so far and may be the Gophers' best red zone threat.

Things aren't falling apart, however. Autman-Bell and Howden's returns are more imminent than distant. While he hasn't commented publicly on Walley's injury, Fleck didn't seem alarmed about Wright after the game. The Gophers' injury situation does not resemble a crisis and will require a much worse run of bad luck to deserve being called one. It's just worth keeping an eye on, considering some important players have already missed time.

9. The Gophers have won the field position battle in each of their games.

Ohio State and Miami's average starting field position was within their own 25-yard line, averaging a start 8 yards closer to their own end zones than Minnesota's offense did. It's true that having superior field position is easier when you have a positive turnover margin (and not as important when one of your giveaways ended in a touchdown). But that's not the only reason Minnesota has done well in this department. The specialists have chipped in.

Ten of Dragan Kesich's dozen kickoffs have ended in a touchback. Opponents failed to return the other two beyond the 20-yard line thanks to good coverage.

Mark Crawford's 38.3 net yards per punt doesn't look very impressive, but that gives an incomplete picture. Five of Crawford's punts have been from between the two 40-yard lines, which is a range from which a punter has to worry about touchbacks. Four of those attempts landed within the opposing 20-yard line, and three were within the 10-yard line. So far, Crawford has placed his punts well.

Against Miami, true freshman Mar'Keise Irving gave the Gophers their second-best starting field position of the day (behind Nubin's interception) with a 41-yard kickoff return. The return set up the touchdown that put the game out of reach.

The Gophers' average starting field position was significantly better than their opponents twice last season. Though it's just September, the fact they have done so handily in two games may indicate that the special teams unit has substantially improved.

10. Minnesota has a placekicker.

I've said before that it's too early for big, declarative statements, but we can take more liberties when the newcomer we're discussing entered this season having been a two-year starter at another school. Matthew Trickett looked a month ago like he could be the kicker Minnesota has needed, and he's done nothing to make outside observers any less confident that he is. He's gone 8-for-8 on extra point attempts and connected on 46- and 50-yard field goals.

Morgan said after the game he views every Trickett attempt as an automatic 3 points. Though that should be read as less-than-literal for multiple reasons, the general point is evident: For the first time in years, the Gophers have some real security in the kicking game.

Next Game

Colorado has allowed 17 points across the first two weeks of the season thanks to an efficiency-killing defense that held Northern Colorado and Texas A&M to a combined 3.0 yards per non-sack carry and a 52.4 percent completion rate. While TFL-machine edge rusher Carson Wells hasn't been as impactful in 2021 as he was a season ago, inside linebacker Nate Landman is off to a tremendous start. Landman has 14.0 tackles (all solo), 2.0 tackles for loss, and three pass breakups. Wells and Landman were a disruptive pair last year and have continued to cause problems for opposing rushing attacks.

If there's a problem for the Buffaloes, it's their tendency to allow big plays. By collegefootball data.com's explosiveness metric, CU's mark against Northern Colorado (1.24 EPA on successful plays, excluding garbage time) would have ranked in the middle of FBS over the whole of last season. Against A&M, the Buffaloes would have been in the bottom third (1.31). This was a major problem for last year's defense, too; Colorado had the worst explosiveness mark in the subdivision (1.51). When this defense cracks, it breaks.

If the Gophers have a full complement of receivers, they are less likely to play another game of manball on offense. The Buffaloes have too good a front seven to load up the line, and drawing more defenders to the line of scrimmage will make the defense less likely to give up the big plays that are key to scoring against this team. If Minnesota spreads the field, that will open up space for Potts to burst through the middle and take advantage of Colorado's explosive tendencies.

Meanwhile, Minnesota's defense faces a team it should be able to handle. Though the Buffaloes breezed through the UNC defense, they hit a wall against the Aggies. A&M held freshman quarterback Brendon Lewis to a measly 3.3 yards per pass attempt and kept the Colorado run game from doing much damage: CU's 174 yards rushing came on 37 attempts. The Buffs didn't cross midfield in the second half. Against neither opponent could they show much explosiveness.

In two games, Lewis has posted a 58.0-percent completion rate despite not having many difficult throws; per PFF, his average depth of target has been just 6.8 yards. Receiver Dimitri Stanley was something of a big play threat in 2020 but so far has not repeated that as coordinator Darrin Chiaverini's offense has emphasized short throws. Running back Jarek Broussard, who ran for 845 yards last season, has been the Buffs' most reliable skill player. Broussard is a nimble runner who's tougher to tackle than his 5-foot-9-inch frame might suggest.

If something about the Colorado offense gives Minnesota fits, it could be Lewis' running. He's averaged 9.6 yards per non-sack carry, much of it while scrambling. Having run into big problems against mobile quarterbacks like Taulia Tagovailoa and Joe Milton last season, the Gophers need to contain Lewis.

If they can do that, the Buffaloes won't represent a major test for the Gophers' defense. They shouldn't let this game get away from them. Should that happen, though, it will be time for concern that Rossi's unit might be significantly flawed to become worry that it will consistently make games closer than they need to be.