Success, as P.J. Fleck said and graphed in his first season, does not always arrive on a perfectly linear path. It is also not guaranteed to maintain over time; it may fade, even partially, and only with time may it return to its previous heights.
A shorthanded and young Minnesota team demonstrated this fact by getting shellacked by Michigan Saturday, tempering some (perhaps overly) expectant fans' enthusiasm for the follow-up to the program's 2019 breakthrough. Poor run defense and a formidable Michigan front did them in, and the Little Brown Jug continues its residency in Ann Arbor.
1. Michigan torched Minnesota on the ground.
Of the Gophers' seven departing starters, just one was in the secondary, and it was the be-everywhere, do-everything safety Antoine Winfield Jr. With so many inexperienced players in the front six and no more Winfield, it was probable that Minnesota's previously unremarkable run defense would take a step back. That became close to inevitable when Braelen Oliver, one of the two linebackers to get significant snaps last year, suffered an injury in spring camp and seemed increasingly unlikely to start the opener as camp resumed in the fall.
Oliver in fact did miss the opener, and in his place was true freshman Cody Lindenberg. Lindenberg, from Anoka, was the lowest rated of three linebacker prospects Minnesota signed in the 2020 class and was subsequently a bit of a surprise to start. And he deserves credit for the occasional play like this one, in which he plowed through Michigan's pulling guard to disrupt a 3rd-and-2 run in the red zone.
But overall, it was a rough night for the Minnesota front seven.
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| You can find explanations for each stat here. Line Yards and Success Rate are via api.collegefootballdata.com |
Excluding sacks, kneeldowns, and one fake punt, Minnesota's opponents averaged 4.55 yards per carry last season. Michigan more than doubled that figure. The offensive line avoided negative plays. Nearly two-thirds of the Wolverines' rushing attempts gained at least four yards. And when their running backs got space, they took advantage. In every way, it was a disaster for the Gophers' run defense.
The starting trio of Lindenberg, Mariano Sori-Marin, and Josh Aune couldn't shed blocks, were slow to the ball, and missed tackles; the defensive line generated little push or penetration; and the secondary didn't always clean up the messes because of undisciplined play. (More on the secondary momentarily.) Though this play occurred well beyond the point of competitiveness, I felt like it was pretty representative of how the evening went:
They just got pushed around.
It didn't help that what the Gophers saw didn't line up with the scouting report. Michigan opened the game in 21 personnel (two running backs, two tight ends), something they came back to plenty throughout the night.
Fleck mentioned after the game that the Gophers were surprised to see so many two-back sets. Though the pre-2019 Wolverines used fullbacks frequently, offensive coordinator Josh Gattis overwhelmingly relied on 11 and 12 personnel in his first season. Whether it will stay in Michigan's offense this season is uncertain, but against Minnesota, the fullback made something of a comeback. Ben Mason played a big role in Michigan's ground game, like on Zach Charbonnet's first quarter touchdown.
Or on this run a little while later,in which Mason closed off Sori-Marin:
Minnesota's problems cannot be distilled to simply not handling a fullback, obviously, but the presence of one clearly aided the Wolverines' run game.
2. Minnesota's safeties were poor in run support.
On the above Charbonnet touchdown, Jordan Howden came screaming into the gap between Mason and receiver Roman Wilson, ready to make the tackle. When he got to the line, however, he was moving too quickly to adjust to Michigan's pulling guard, who barely had to nudge him into the gap belonging to Justus Harris (whom Wilson did well to keep turned). With Tyler Nubin watching the back side for a potential Joe Milton keeper, the middle of the field was totally vacant, and Charbonnet went untouched on a 70-yard touchdown.
Nubin had plenty of his own bad moments in his first college start. Take, for example, Hassan Haskins' first touchdown. Here, everything Nubin did was fine except for this whiffed tackle:
And then there was the missed tackle on Chris Evans' touchdown, the result of a bad angle after successfully shedding a blocker:
And well before that was utter calamity, set up at first by Mafe's botched containment of the edge. Haskins was bottled up after the Gophers successfully fit the run on the play side, but on the back side, Mafe crept inside and let Mason outside of him. Nubin's job, then, was to replace Mafe on the edge in case of a cutback. Instead, he headed for the scrum. Haskins stayed patient, found the wide-open D gap, and sped past the out-of-position Nubin for a 66-yard gain that should have been a loss. It was the Wolverines' second-longest play from scrimmage.
Sprinting down from safety to stop the run isn't a bad thing; Winfield was a heatseeker who aggressively filled gaps. You want that in a safety — if he is smart about it. Winfield always found the ball and rarely took the wrong angle or tried to fill the wrong gap. Against Michigan, Howden and especially Nubin could be reckless, abandon their assignments, and leave themselves out of position with no cover. They must correct that, or Minnesota will keep giving up explosive runs.
3. Michigan got a strong performance out of their new quarterback.
In his first start, Joe Milton was good enough as a passer. He had few bad moments and made some impressive throws, such as this dart over Sori-Marin to Wilson:
His final line — 15-of-22 for 225 yards, a touchdown, and a sack — was quite good, although his playcaller and receivers helped him out a bit by calling for short passes and picking up yards after the catch. He also didn't have to carry his team, considering how well Michigan's running backs and offensive line played. Milton's performance neither met nor invalidated his high expectations, which is perfectly acceptable in his first start. Based on how he threw the ball Saturday, I feel pretty good about him as the Wolverines' starter.
Milton's contributions were not limited to his passing, however. Nearly a quarter of Michigan's rushing yards came on Milton's legs. He showed he could scramble, of course.
But Gattis trusted Milton on designed runs as well, such as on this buck sweep that showed up a few times on the night. (Note the motion at the snap drawing a defender from the box.)
By the late third quarter, Sori-Marin was evidently concerned enough about Milton running the ball that he neglected pass defense to follow Milton on a bootleg. Meanwhile, Lindenberg had blitzed the A gap. Neither of them were in position when Milton instead threw to Erick All, nor were they fast enough to make up for it.
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| Side note: This is a terrible angle by Nubin, too. No play Michigan might have run here could have developed slowly enough for the safety on the boundary side to make a play in the backfield on the field side. |
It seems that Gattis not only has a multi-purpose weapon available to him at quarterback but that he knows how to play to his strengths as well.
4. Outside of a blocked punt, Minnesota's special teams were a mess.
First off: I'm unsure the idea of faking a punt on 4th-and-4 in the second quarter is itself a bad decision. It obviously looks terrible when it goes terribly.
That said: It shouldn't have been so obvious something was up before the snap.
One of these things is not like the other pic.twitter.com/xFJfh3IDFC
— Richard🇬🇾Johnson (@RJ_Writes) October 25, 2020
Any opposing coach or player can notice a shift in formation like that without even doing any homework. That's just shoddy.
Fleck said after the game a big reason he decided to fake the punt was Minnesota's limitations punting the ball. Instead of Mark Crawford, whose absence was implied to be connected to positive COVID-19 tests among the Gophers' specialists, transfer Matthew Stephenson handled punts. His two attempts leading up to the fake traveled 31 and 18 yards. Clearly, the Gophers missed Crawford.
Kickoff specialist Grant Ryerse and field goal kicker Michael Lantz also missed the game. As a result, both jobs fell to Brock Walker, who is not far removed from a sports hernia surgery that severely limited the distance he could kick. Walker made all of his PAT attempts and a 29-yard field goal. But to compensate for Walker's shorter range (and perhaps to avoid kicking to Giles Jackson), the Gophers didn't bother with traditional kickoffs. Though Michigan didn't do much returning Walker's sky kicks, they still ended up with good field position. But Michael Barrett, the Viper hybrid linebacker playing up-man, nearly took a squib kick back for a touchdown.
It's difficult to tell if the squib was intentional; regardless, the kick and bad coverage combined to give Barrett ample space to run. Michigan scored a touchdown after two plays.
On six possessions following punts and kickoffs, Michigan's average starting field position was their own 41-yard line. It was a major reason why they scored so many points.
5. The offensive line's performance against a stacked Michigan front was a mixed bag but generally positive.
While Minnesota's defense was missing the experience of those no longer on the roster, the offense missed two of its most important current players. Right guard Curtis Dunlap appeared during warmups wearing a cast, and right tackle Daniel Faalele was also unavailable. The Gophers shuffled the offensive line; Conner Olson took Dunlap's place, Blaise Andries took Faalele's, and Axel Ruschmeyer and John Michael Schmitz filled their spots at left guard and center.
Against one of the nation's top run defenses, the Gophers favored two-tight end sets to supplement their depleted line. Excluding their final two drives, Minnesota used 12 personnel on 58.1 percent of their snaps. Though the tactic drew more defenders into the box, which prevented explosive plays, and the Wolverines still made some stuffs, the run game was very efficient.
Averaging that number of Line Yards per carry and such high Success and Opportunity rates would put the Minnesota run game near the top of the country over a full season. It's hard to find fault with the run blocking, especially considering the circumstances and the opponent.
The same cannot be said for the pass protection. The Wolverines sacked Tanner Morgan five times and were in his face plenty more. Minnesota's line struggled when Michigan defensive coordinator Don Brown pulled from his arsenal of stunts and blitzes, a feature of his defenses for years. Cam McGrone created this sack by looping from middle linebacker around the C gap, leaving Morgan no escape from Julius Welschof after the defensive tackle had beaten Ruschmeyer on a twist.
Additionally, Morgan sometimes could have helped himself, as on this nickel blitz he had no idea was coming despite Barrett's presnap alignment. As Kirk Herbstreit mentioned on the broadcast, Mohamed Ibrahim could have done better to pick up Barrett as well.
The frequent pressure stymied Minnesota's deep passing game, as Morgan regularly found himself needing to get rid of the ball quickly rather than look downfield. He attempted just two passes of 20 yards or more (not counting one wiped from the box score for a pass interference penalty).
Michigan's biggest defensive concern this season is their relatively inexperienced secondary, and deep passes burned last year's iteration. But the likes of Kwitty Paye (two sacks and, according to Pro Football Focus, seven pressures), Aidan Hutchinson (one pass breakup), and Carlo Kemp (one sack and officially one hit) made sure there wasn't time for those plays to develop.
6. Ibrahim ran with his typical style.
Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks each had the capability to break tackles, but neither of them was ever the bruiser that Ibrahim is. What he lacks in top-end speed and imposing size he makes up for in acceleration, balance, and power. His two touchdowns against Michigan demonstrated those traits.
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| For the record, I'm still not convinced Ibrahim crossed the goal line on this play. |
It's hard to say just how many more yards Ibrahim gets than the average running back — even in college, blocking, scheme, and box count are the best predictors of rushing efficiency — but his ability to bounce off of and run through would-be-tacklers adds uncommon value.
7. Morgan targeted eight different receivers, including three tight ends. He probably needs to spread the ball around more this season.
The Gophers have an elite wideout in Rashod Bateman, but the offense cannot run through him alone. To keep opposing defenses off-balance and to have players ready for bigger roles once Bateman leaves next year, co-offensive coordinators Mike Sanford Jr. and Matt Simon should find ways to involve other receiving options.
One way they were expected to accomplish that is by incorporating the Gophers' tight ends in the passing game. Ko Kieft, whose last catch was more than two years ago, was Morgan's first target of the season and scored Minnesota's first touchdown.
Kieft was the only tight end to make a catch against Michigan, but he, Brevyn Spann-Ford, and Bryce Witham combined for seven targets.
Meanwhile, non-Bateman wide receivers combined for just three targets. Daniel Jackson or Seth Green was generally the third receiver when the Gophers were in 11 personnel, but neither got a chance at a catch. Of the receivers who made a fourth quarter cameo, only Clay Geary was targeted.
Maybe the coaches didn't want to throw their less experienced players straight into the fray of such a challenging first game, which is understandable. But as the season progresses, those players need more opportunities. Bateman benefited from playing with another dangerous receiver in Tyler Johnson, as opponents could not focus too much on one as long as the other was on the field. Bateman is now what Johnson was in 2018: the primary target and the team's most accomplished player at the position. After loading up on receivers in recent signing classes, the Gophers should give some of them some game reps. Maybe one of them becomes the new Bateman.
8. In his return, the Big Ten's best receiver didn't amaze, but he was active and pretty good.
As mentioned earlier, Morgan didn't have the time he needed in the pocket for the Gophers to test the Wolverines downfield. This somewhat limited Bateman's impact, as in 2019, he was one of the country's best deep threats and the target on nearly half of Morgan's deep passes.
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| From my post on the Gophers' passing game. |
But Sanford and Simon tried to get their star involved in other ways, trying out the fly sweeps that Kirk Ciarrocca gave Johnson last year.
That idea didn't really work, but it's worth noting that the above play failed more because Kemp shot past Schmitz and wrecked the mesh point than because of faulty design or strategy. Bateman is effective with the ball in his hands, so it makes sense to give him opportunities to make plays that way. Take this slant he nearly turned into a touchdown.
Bateman finished the night with nine catches for 101 yards, 38 of which came after the catch. Another 38 came on this:
So Michigan didn't entirely eliminate the deep passing game.
9. Some of Minnesota's strategic deficiencies from last season are still there.
The previous offensive coordinator has been replaced by two others, and Minnesota still doesn't have many ideas for the goal line.
Goal line fades are slightly less terrible when you have elite receivers who can jump over shorter and less talented defensive backs, as the Gophers did last year and still do now. But they remain terrible, low-efficiency plays. If you pass it near the goal line, you should find another way to attack the defense — like, for example, a pick play, pop-pass, or bootleg. Just something that tries to deceive the defense or gives your quarterback multiple options.
And if you do run a goal line fade on 3rd down, and it doesn't work, don't call the exact same thing on 4th down.
This is just flat-out unimaginative and boneheaded playcalling. Sanford should know better. And everyone left over from last year's staff should have learned their lesson from the last time they gave Morgan only two options on consecutive downs at the opposing 4-yard line in a futile attempt to salvage their chances at winning a high-profile trophy game at home.
While on the subject of habitual coaching errors: Though the game wasn't close enough for this to matter, Fleck's timeout decisions remain somewhere between obnoxious and baffling. The most important thing use for a timeout is to stop the clock in a situation where you need the time to run more plays — to extend your late drive, to make sure you get another possession before the half ends, or to rush out your field goal unit. There are other worthwhile uses for it.
Saving yourself from a 5-yard delay of game penalty is almost never one of them. It's even worse when you use that timeout at the start of your second drive, not even 3 minutes into a game. Using two more timeouts early in the fourth quarter of a game that is likely out of reach, but that you'll absolutely need your timeouts to have any chance at winning, is a bad decision as well.
Were these decisions that egregious and harmful? Again, no — the game was not decided by timeouts. But it remains suboptimal game management, and the fact that those late timeouts happened with the starters still in the game suggests Fleck was still at least kind of trying to win. (Whether they should have been on the field that late in the game is another matter.) And early in the first quarter, he definitely was trying to win. Timeouts are valuable assets, and if you want to win, you can't just throw them away to hold on to 5 yards.
10. Don't overreact to this loss.
A blowout in primetime is absolutely a disappointing way to start the season. Losing a trophy game after losing two last November is deflating for fans. Falling out of the top 25 of either major poll when the program had its best season in decades last year can feel like undoing progress. There is clearly much to be done to make Minnesota a more complete team that can compete for a conference title.
But it's important to remain patient and keep in mind:
- There is nothing inherent about a high-profile game played by a sports team from Minnesota that makes failure inevitable. That certainly applies to the team that beat Penn State and Auburn last season.
- The presence of College Gameday on campus does not inflict a curse.
- Though the defense looks worse than hoped, significant regression should always be expected when replacing seven starters from the previous season, including four NFL Draft selections. (I said as much in my review of the Auburn game.)
Continuity and experience are vital in college football — especially on defense, and especially when you don't consistently sign blue-chip prospects. There will be growing pains and likely some shootouts. But the only way for the Gophers' young defenders to improve is for them to keep playing. - Specialist depth is not supposed to be a problem for a team entering a season with three returning kickers (one of whom doubles as a punter), two incoming kickers, and two incoming punters. The placekicker who could play was not at full strength because he was recovering from an injury. It is not an exaggeration to say that the game could have been significantly different if the Gophers weren't unexpectedly down to the specialist options they had, and it isn't necessarily anyone's fault that they were.
- Barring terrible luck, Minnesota will still likely win at least half of their eight games. Though the back end of the West Division is stronger than a year ago, the Gophers should be at least slight favorites in most of their remaining games. Between four and six wins should have been the expectation entering Saturday; that should remain the expectation. Don't dispose of your preseason opinions just because the season started with an unpleasant surprise.
Not every year has to be great for a program to be in a great place. And not everything has to be good to have a good year. Remember that.
Next Game
There may not be a better opponent in the conference against which Minnesota can look for a rebound. Maryland finished 2019 on a seven-game losing streak, including a 52-10 drubbing in Minneapolis.
The Terrapins followed that up with the Big Ten's most embarrassing 2020 debut, losing 43-3 to Northwestern. (At least Michigan State can hide behind the excuse of an unlucky seven turnovers in their 38-27 loss to Rutgers.) It was a brutal loss for an inexperienced team likely to suffer a lot of them this year.
Alabama transfer Taulia Tagovailoa completed 14 of 25 passes and threw three interceptions, prompting Mike Locksley to give redshirt freshman Lance LeGendre a late spin at quarterback. Receiver Dontay Demus Jr., who figures to be the Terps' best offensive weapon, managed just 41 yards on four catches. Freshman Rakim Jarrett, a composite five-star prospect from D.C., gained 1 yard on one catch in his college debut. Until Maryland finds a quarterback, their passing game poses no threat.
A young Gopher front, meanwhile, should regain some confidence against a weak Terrapin rushing attack. With a fairly inexperienced offensive line and the departures of running backs Javon Leake and Anthony McFarland, Maryland doesn't offer a second dimension — if you could ever call a passing attack of Demus alone a first dimension.
On the other side of the ball, Maryland looks just as hopeless after being torched by what was one of the worst offenses in FBS a season ago. Northwestern ran for 325 yards, and Peyton Ramsey threw for 212 yards and a touchdown. None of the Terrapins' many linebacker combinations, nor their defensive backs, could consistently defend the edge or fill gaps. It was an outright disaster for a defense returning just four players who started at least six games last season.
Against Maryland last October, Minnesota's rushing offense was not quite as effective as Northwestern's was on Saturday; they managed a mere 324 yards. Morgan posted an underwhelming line (12-of-21 for 138 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception) but was barely needed. This might be a good week to give the Gophers' depth receivers first-team reps in a game setting.
Overall, the Gophers' trip to College Park should serve as the kind of tune-up game they could had used before playing Michigan. Is turbulence possible? Definitely. But a Maryland victory requires far more luck than that program is used to getting.
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