Midweek Review: Purdue 31-34 Minnesota

 1. The officials blew this game.

Just roll it.

I mean, this is just irredeemably bad. I have not seen a worse offensive pass interference decision, and I will likely die before seeing a worse offensive pass interference decision. Purdue fans should be livid. Jeff Brohm clearly was.

But hey — the Boilermakers had 52 seconds left and four downs within Minnesota territory. They had their chance to come back from this call and win in spite of it. It's not like the officials missed anything on Josh Aune's game-sealing intercep —

Ooheauuggghh.

Yeah, that's bad. I could point to an earlier phantom defensive pass interference call that saved what became a Purdue touchdown drive, and I can say the officiating was bad both ways (and it was), but there's not anything that will help. At the most important point of the game, Purdue got screwed. Twice. Though Minnesota had two timeouts and could have won anyway, that was no guarantee. Minnesota is beyond lucky to come out of this game the victors.

2. Going for it on 4th-and-1 was the right decision. The playcall was not the right decision.

With 6:20 left and a 3-point lead, the Gophers tried to convert 4th-and-1 from their own 34-yard line. I considered going for it a no-brainer, but unsurprisingly, that opinion was not held unanimously.

My case for going for it boils down to this: Neither defense was having a good night. In fact, both defenses were doing terribly. The Gophers should be able to get 1 yard against most teams, but that was especially true against an opponent who had demonstrably struggled to slow them down. And Minnesota was playing so poorly on defense that field possession was just about immaterial; if Purdue got the ball back, the Boilermakers would likely tie the game or take the lead no matter where they got it. In fact, failure on 4th down might have been less costly than punting, as after scoring with a short field, Purdue would leave Minnesota more time for a response.

P.J. Fleck was right to trust his better unit to win the game because his other unit was just about guaranteed to let him down if he instead tried not to lose.

(Additionally, as has been covered ad nauseam, coaches at all levels should be more aggressive on 4th down generally. They don't need to take Kevin Kelley's never-punt philosophy to gain a competitive advantage over their opponents, as almost everyone refuses to seize that advantage for themselves.)

So with that established: I don't like Mike Sanford Jr.'s call.

The Gophers had gone to the Green Line package a few times earlier in the game, but a 1st-and-goal on the previous drive gave evidence Purdue was getting wise to it.

The problem was that Purdue had too many bodies on the back side. Before the snap, there was a lineman over each of the A and B gaps, plus defensive back Cam Allen manning the C gap and Dedrick Mackey on tight end Bryce Witham's outside shoulder.

Left tackle Nathan Boe and left guard Axel Ruschmeyer's jobs were to block down. Witham was going to pull across the formation to kick out the edge on the play side. That left both Mackey and Allen unblocked. Either one of them was going to follow Witham's motion, leaving the other to hold the edge, or one of them was going to have a free run at the mesh point while the other kept containment. The latter is what happened: Allen blitzed and disrupted the play. Mohamed Ibrahim just about avoided the tackle, but a whiff by Witham let Kydran Lewis finish the play.

On the next play, Minnesota flipped the formation and instead attacked the weak side, where the Gophers didn't have any tight ends. This time, Witham's motion drew his man across to the strong side, and the Gophers ran outside zone the opposite way. Ibrahim scored untouched.

On 4th-and-1, the Gophers lined up the way they did on 2nd-and-goal: Witham flexed to the boundary side opposite Ibrahim, who was on to the strong side. Again, however, the problem was evident in the Boilermakers' alignment.

If Marvin Grant was actually in man coverage on Witham, he wouldn't be playing inside leverage as the outermost defender. If Witham was going to not motion across the formation and instead seal the edge, Grant would have no chance to stay outside of him and hold the D gap.

Even more obviously than on 1st-and-goal, this was a blitz all the way. No one was going to follow Witham, and the Gophers had no way to deal with it.

Witham again could have done better on his block.

Maybe Bryce Williams could have done better to get in Grant's way, but he didn't have the time or the angle to do much. This play was dead before it started because Purdue was ready to counter it.

What could Minnesota have done instead?

For one: When every play out of the Green Line package includes a motion from the flexed tight end to the opposite side of the formation, it removes all guesswork about what that tight end is doing before the motion. Purdue ran weakside blitzes because there was no reason to believe they would get picked up.

The Gophers could have used Seth Green as a lead blocker on a direct snap to Williams, something they've done before. See last year's game in West Lafayette:

Adding an extra blocker might even the numbers and leave these runs less vulnerable to blitzers.

Alternatively, the Gophers could have run out of something other than their heavy, compact look with six linemen and two tight ends. They had six linemen on the field for their third-quarter touchdown, but they spread out the Boilermakers a little more by placing Rashod Bateman and Chris Autman-Bell out wide.

Minnesota could also try passing in short-yardage situations — and I don't mean throwing fades at the goal line. The Gophers' quick throws off of play-action and run-pass option in normal situations should be effective in these spots. They could also try rub concepts. On the below example, the outside receiver took his man out of the flat, which cleared room for the swinging receiver.

I had to dig deep to find this play.

And while throwing out of the Green Line likely wasn't the best play against the above Purdue blitzes, the fact Green never throws hurts their ability to run in these spots because opponents know exactly what is coming.

The bottom line is that the 4th-and-1 call isn't an aberration: Minnesota has for a long time needed to be more creative and less stubborn in short-yardage situations. Loading more meat onto the line of scrimmage and ignoring ways opponents counter that tactic won't always work.

3. Once again, Minnesota got conservative and predictable on offense.

Fleck's adherence to the run has gotten him in trouble before. He should know by now that as impressive as it is to put together an 8-minute drive to kill off a game, his team can't overpower opponents every game, especially since he has made it clear to those opponents that's how he wants to win. And he should know that as good as his rushing attack is, having what has been one of the nation's top passing attacks is much more valuable, and abandoning it while it is working is simply bad coaching.

But he clearly doesn't know those things. It's the only explanation for why, despite returns that diminished as the game went on, the Gophers ran on nearly two-thirds of their plays, including on 20 of 26 first downs and on seven of their eight plays in the fourth quarter.

Read about PPA here.

While Purdue's secondary showed its flaws, the Boilermakers' run defense played well. The Gophers posted worse stats than they did against Iowa, maintaining a decent level of efficiency but failing to reach the second and third levels. Just one Minnesota carry gained 10 or more yards.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
Line Yards and Success Rate are via
collegefootballdata.com

But the Boilermakers didn't always have to work very hard. All they had to do was let someone on the sideline not tell Tanner Morgan to check out of a 2nd-and-long run into an eight-man front.

Obviously, some of the blame falls on Sanford and Matt Simon as the coordinators, but such conservatism, especially late, was a problem under Kirk Ciarrocca as well. As head coach, Fleck dictates the general direction of the offense. A "balanced" offense that has a future 1st-round pick at receiver, that's signed five receivers over the last two recruiting classes, and that has so often trailed or held narrow leads this season shouldn't be running nearly 60 percent of the time overall, running more often than most other teams in passing situations, and trying to kill clock with a 3-point lead early in the fourth quarter of a shootout.

The predictability continued to the instances that the Gophers passed, too. A few times, they Gophers ran a mesh concept from a three-by-one look that put the underneath receiver in enough space to pick up enough yards after the catch for a first down. It's a smart call, especially when that receiver is Bateman.

Note that Bateman catches the ball behind the line of scrimmage so Green is not
flagged for pass interference.

But Sanford went back to it too many times. On a crucial 3rd-and-8 in the fourth quarter, having been caught up in traffic on the play above, Cory Trice avoided Green's pick and tackled Bateman for a loss. Minnesota punted and nearly lost on the following possession.

This was another example of the Minnesota offense doing something it's good at often enough that it stopped rewarding them. The Gophers need to mix it up.

4. Morgan bounced back after a rough performance against Iowa.

Though the Gophers' quarterback was not at his absolute best, he couldn't have done that much better than a 68.2-percent completion rate and 264 yards passing.

While Morgan's completion rate was inflated by nine passes within two yards of the line, he still did well throwing downfield and was hurt by a couple of drops. A larger proportion of his passes (18.2 percent) were 20 or more yards downfield than in any prior game this season; he completed three of the four, as well as three passes that came just a couple yards short of that cutoff. Morgan's arm let him down against Iowa, but he threw with the right amount of both zip and touch against Purdue.

Morgan was deft in the pocket as well, avoiding rushers and getting rid of the ball too quickly to take even one sack. In a game this tight, he needed to be good, and he was.

5. Minnesota's secondary receiving options finally got more involved.

Seven different Gophers caught passes, and Morgan targeted one more. Though Bateman remained the top preference, his 36.4 percent target rate was his lowest of the season. He still finished with 59 yards despite making just one catch beyond the line of scrimmage, which was this masterful contested grab on a fade:

Autman-Bell led Minnesota in catches and yards, the latter of which was the result of his team-high average depth of target of 14.1 yards. Twice he played the deep threat, making catches of 42 and 33 yards on fades. He came up just short of the end zone on the latter but made a brilliant adjustment to find the ball and set up 1st-and-goal.

Seth Green and Mike Brown-Stephens each got a target, with Green making a big reception on 3rd-and-8 and Brown-Stephens getting a chance on a post in the end zone. Witham and Jacob Paulson also caught a pass each. (As a group, the tight ends have posted a target rate of 10.3 percent, a major jump from last year's mark of 3.9 percent.) Witham's catch came on a throw to the flat off of a split zone action, a rather mundane design in some offenses but for the Gophers a nifty wrinkle tied to one of their favorite concepts.

The fact this was a close game from beginning to end is notable; these were meaningful targets to players often overlooked. As I've said throughout the season: If all defenses are worried about is Bateman, then it becomes harder to get Bateman the ball and therefore harder to run the offense. And when Minnesota's star receiver leaves, someone will have to step up in his stead. It's important to more evenly distribute targets, for both the sake of this year's offense and that of offenses after Bateman's departure.

6. Purdue carved up the Minnesota pass defense.

Jack Plummer started at quarterback in place of Aidan O'Connell and put forth a pretty convincing argument that he should have played from the start of the season: he was 35-of-42 for 367 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, and no sacks. He got rid of the ball quickly, but he also took advantage of the fact Minnesota was without top pass rusher Boye Mafe. Plummer ran for 22 yards on five carries, largely the result of a clean pocket most of the night.

Purdue's gameplan involved attacking the flats and getting the Gophers to bite on play-action, a chronic problem for them all year.

It also helped having two of the best receivers in the country in David Bell and Rondale Moore, who combined for 220 receiving yards. Bell scored two magnificent touchdowns. On the first, Coney Durr lost Bell as he crossed routes with another receiver, and Tyler Nubin turned too late to catch him.

On the second, Durr was in tight coverage, but Bell made a spectacular grab over the cornerback.

The Gophers should be thankful they don't face another receiving corps like this one the rest of the way.

7. Purdue took advantage of Minnesota's vulnerability on the edge with jet sweeps and tap passes.

The Boilermakers gave Moore the ball 18 times on his season debut. His 15 receptions matched Morgan's number of completions, and he also ran three times. They got back one of the sport's most electric and versatile playmakers, and they weren't about to neglect that fact.

A major part of Moore's night was his implementation on sweeps. Plummer's second completion was a tap pass Moore turned into a 33-yard gain:

On eight plays like this — five passes and Moore's three runs — Purdue gained 77 yards. The concept was a major part of their toolbox, and it came with accompanying fakes:

The Gophers didn't do very well defending the sweeps or the plays off of that action, and that should give ammunition to their next opponents. That includes Wisconsin, whose receivers have regularly gotten carries over the past few seasons. The Minnesota defense may be young, but the players are plenty old enough to remember what happened a year ago.

Wisconsin may not need to go back to this concept, but it is important the Gophers practice defending it for the rest of the season.

8. Against more straightforward runs, Minnesota's defense was adequate.

Not all of Purdue's sweeps didn't count as runs, so the stats could be worse if they did, but Minnesota's run defense posted its best numbers of the year.

Zander Horvath made tacklers' jobs difficult by picking up yards after contact, and he averaged 6.4 yards per carry, but as a team, Purdue didn't run particularly well. Two Horvath runs accounted for more than half of his and King Doerue's 83 total rushing yards. The Purdue line couldn't generate much push on inside runs. The Gophers' only serious failures were on short-yardage situations and in creating negative plays. Beyond that, for the first time this season, their run defense did not perform poorly enough to be a problem.

9. Minnesota's special teams are still mostly ugly.

Since the Michigan game, kickoffs and kick coverage have been relative strengths for Minnesota. Opponents have averaged 11.7 yards per kick return over the last four weeks. Dragan Kesich has been responsible for all five of the team's touchbacks and averaged 61.5 yards per kick. Though he put one kick out of bounds against Purdue, that was his first time doing so, and the Boilermakers' average starting field position after kickoffs was still 21.5 yards from their end zone. These are all positive developments.

But other aspects of special teams remain works in progress at best and messes at worst. Wiley's kick returns are often uncomfortably adventurous; twice this season, he's dropped the ball after being down, which should inspire concerns over ball security even if neither occurrence was officially a fumble. Mark Crawford had a respectable pair of punts on Friday, but it is still uncertain how good he is after a rough performance in a larger sample against Iowa. And Brock Waker missed a PAT attempt for the second time this season.

It's hard to tell how much of Minnesota's special teams shakiness can be explained by inexperience, recovery from injuries, and COVID-19-related issues, and how much of it is simple incapability. The former wouldn't necessarily warrant blaming anyone; the latter would. As with the Gophers' defensive problems, we kind of just have to wait and see what players stick and whether things improve.

10. Minnesota's uniforms bore a simple and hollow message in contrast with substantive efforts toward progress from within the program.

I don't need to re-establish what happened in Minneapolis this summer. We all know what happened. Brands have given various attempts at responding to it all, and most have them have spoken without saying anything, emphasizing the importance of "unity" and using catchphrases like "justice" and "equality" without actually grappling with what those concepts mean or how to achieve them.

On Friday, it was evidently the Gophers' turn to respond. This "statement" was comparably toothless.

It takes all of us. pic.twitter.com/HFhhTpUGiv

— Minnesota Football (@GopherFootball) November 20, 2020

What about it was actionable? What institution did it challenge? How did it spotlight the identities of those who perpetrate or are victims of racism in America? Whom could it possibly have influenced, except the "stick to sports" idiots who were inspired to gripe on Twitter, change the channel, or harass a Star Tribune reporter?

As either a call to action or a protest, it was valueless. It couldn't even match the bite or specificity of a tweet sent in May by Green, who — as a reminder — is a player on the team.

Black people are literally saying “stop killing us” and there are people saying “But...”

— Seth Green (@seth_mgreen) May 27, 2020

That the Gophers would wear a message so milquetoast is all the more disappointing because it's not like those within the program haven't done more. Green, Brevyn Spann-Ford, and other players attended protests in support of Black Lives Matter. In consultation with team leaders, Fleck started the "HERE" ("Help End Racism through Education") campaign within the program, which as best I can tell has consisted of team-wide conversations on race, including those featuring guest speakers. While that's not the most that the program possibly could do, it's something substantive.

The truth is that while institutional racism is a broad, complicated issue with many facets, and advocating for the concept of change does nothing to address those facets. Police violence, discriminatory drug policies, exorbitant bail, segregated schools, voter suppression, the inaccessibility of healthcare, inadequate wages — any one of those specific problems, and several others, are there for criticism. If the goal is to "Help End Racism through Education," then the program should make a real effort to educate the public. How many viewers would gain something by being made aware of these problems? If the program cares about change (and I do not doubt the players do), then it should act like it.

In the end, Minnesota football is just a brand. And brands don't risk losing customers to take actual stands on controversial issues, no matter what the laborers believe in. Whether it falls on Fleck, the athletic department, or someone else in power at the university, to say so little qualifies as a failure to meet the moment and use the program's platform for good.

Next Game

Assuming they can play, this Saturday will be the Gophers' toughest matchup of the season, and they're not likely to have much of a shot. A more talented version of this team hung with Wisconsin for three quarters in Minneapolis last season but never controlled the game and was finally crushed in the fourth. Since then, the Badgers seem to have gotten better. You already know what's happened to the Gophers in the same timeframe.

SP+, Massey, and ESPN's Team Efficiency all have Wisconsin's defense as the best in the country. Borrowing something from the Bill Connelly toolbox, I've visualized below how Wisconsin's defense ranks across a variety of statistical categories. The further a point is from the center of the radar, the higher the team ranks in that stat.

Success Rates and Explosiveness are via collegefootballdata.com. Line Yards,
Opportunity Rate, Stuff Rate, and Sack Rate are via Football Outsiders. Yards per
carry excludes sacks.

The Badgers' biggest weakness is allowing big plays, particularly on the ground. Using collegefootballdata's explosiveness metric, they have the 87th-best defense at preventing explosive runs.

The problem is that teams who played Wisconsin have struggled to get anything at all running the ball. They've broken a few big runs, but that hasn't been enough to make up for their inability to run efficiently: Wisconsin has allowed college football's 2nd-lowest Success Rate on runs.

The pass defense bends just as little, but the breaks are less frequent. This defense either gives up everything or gives up nothing, and most of the time, it's nothing.

This is not a great matchup for the Gophers' offense, which by design has relied primarily on efficiency and a running back who is far more bruiser than burner. This would be a good week to resurrect the deep passing game, as that might be the only avenue to a Gophers victory.

Of course, the problem there is that it will be hard for Minnesota's receivers to get space downfield. Wisconsin's secondary deserves more pass interference calls than it gets, but generally Big Ten officials let cornerbacks Rachad Wildgoose, Caesar Williams, and Faion Hicks play tight, physical coverage. (Wildgoose, it should be noted, left the Northwestern game with a shoulder injury.)

The truth is there isn't an obvious hole the Gophers have shown they can easily exploit. The weather shouldn't make things hard on Morgan like it seemed to in last year's matchup, but Morgan also had Tyler Johnson last year. He needs to have an excellent game, and his secondary receivers need to take some attention away from Bateman. And Sanford and Simon need to prepare a less predictable gameplan.

The good news for Minnesota's defense is that Wisconsin doesn't create many explosive plays, and that is most true of their rushing attack. Though Nakia Watson, Jalen Berger, and Garrett Groshek are all fine running backs, none have been big-play backs. That said, Berger averaged 6.2 yards per carry against an elite Northwestern defense that held all other Wisconsin rushers to 2.8 yards per carry.

Of course, we're still talking about the Gophers. Even when they prevent chunk plays, they don't throw offenses off schedule. The Badgers's Success Rate on runs is 52.0 percent, which is eighth-best in the country. That will be a problem. And Wisconsin killed Michigan on end arounds — which, as previously discussed, could be a source of explosiveness if more straightforward runs don't work.

Graham Mertz is coming off his first bad game as a college quarterback after completing just over half his passes, throwing three interceptions, and getting sacked three times. His receiving corps was also shorthanded due to injuries to Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor. If Davis and Pryor miss another week, that will definitely benefit the Gophers, who can focus on covering tight end Jake Ferguson, the only Badger with double-digit receptions.

But those absences probably won't be enough. A Minnesota win depends on some lucky breaks — turnovers, special teams wackiness, maybe another assist from the officials — and a better performance than the defense has turned in all season. Mertz and the Badgers' offense was humming before running into the Wildcats. I doubt the Gophers can slow them down the same way. If Minnesota's offense can create big plays or be more efficient than anyone else has been against the nation's best defense, that might keep the game within striking distance. But I don't think Wisconsin will be tested much.