In Review: Auburn 24-31 Minnesota

1. For the first time since the forward pass was legal, Minnesota won 11 games in a season.

P.J. Fleck's third season in charge of the Gophers was the program's best since at least 1967, when they last made the Rose Bowl. Though they fell short of Pasadena in 2019, an 11-2 finish with marquee wins over two brand-name programs shows how far Fleck has already taken Minnesota, as well as where he can take it from this point.

Conference politics are annoying, and the public's heavy reliance on bowl games to inform their opinions is not always logical, but the bottom line is that in college football, perception shapes reality. Programs need narratives on their side to continue to recruit well and to gain and maintain the faith of fans and boosters. Beating an opponent of Auburn's caliber, especially one that comes specifically from the SEC, carries tremendous weight. This win gives Minnesota a major boost of credibility.

This was a joyous season for Minnesota fans, and they should forever cherish its signature moments. But what determines the legacy of the 2019 Gophers — as a brilliant but brief moment, or as the start of something greater — is what comes next. Winning this game increases the chances that what comes next is just as good, if not better.

2. Tyler Johnson leaves Minnesota as the best receiver in program history.

It was fitting that in the game that pushed him past Eric Decker in career receiving yards and Ron Johnson in career receiving touchdowns, Johnson played the best game of his career. On 15 targets (counting Tanner Morgan's interception meant for Johnson), he made 12 catches for 204 yards and two touchdowns, including a ridiculous one-handed catch (featured later in the post) and the go-ahead score on this post route:

Johnson is never a stranger to the middle of the field, and this game was no exception. Auburn knew what was coming, but he found space, and Morgan often hit him.

He also showed off his leaping ability, making plays like this 29-yard gain in the second quarter:

He even made plays that didn't count; this pass from Rodney Smith was called back for holding, but Johnson still beat his man and made the catch:

For his last reception in maroon and gold, Johnson played his greatest hit one more time.

This slant, combined with the 12 yards he gained after the catch, was a fitting way to punctuate his excellent career.

3. Minnesota ran the ball effectively against against one of the nation's top defenses.

Mohamed Ibrahim took on a smaller role this season with Smith and Shannon Brooks' returns from injury, but he remained a significant part of the running back rotation. With Brooks out for Wednesday's game, Ibrahim was in line for a bigger share of carries, and he took advantage. He ran for 140 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries, by far the biggest game of his sophomore season. He reminded us what made him so effective as a redshirt freshman: acceleration and power.

Smith didn't grab any headlines in his final college game, but he made a solid contribution with 69 yards on 16 carries. That included this 31-yard run:

As a team, Minnesota had an average day rushing. That's not an insult — look at the stats.  Few rushing attacks approached averageness against Auburn. Minnesota ran for 5.2 yards per attempt, a full yard more than Auburn had allowed per attempt going into the bowl game. (This excludes sacks.) The Gophers matched the FBS averages for Success Rate (measuring efficiency) and Isolated Points Per Play (explosiveness) on the ground.

The reason for their success: excellent blocking. Minnesota's O-line, despite missing its starting right tackle, avoided losses, created lanes at the line of scrimmage, climbed off of double teams to the second level, and finished blocks. Watch left tackle Sam Schlueter push all the way to the end of the play:

Here, Ibrahim got help from just about everyone in picking up the game-sealing 1st down:

The Gophers' passing success was not totally unexpected, as Auburn's completion rate allowed was merely 37th-lowest in FBS, and Johnson and Rashod Bateman are stars. But the fact that they could run the ball against the Tigers was a surprise. They wouldn't have won the game if not for their rushing success.

4. Minnesota's offensive approach had a different flavor, and it helped the Gophers win.

Receivers coach Matt Simon was the interim playcaller after Kirk Ciarrocca's departure for Penn State, and he did a fantastic job. The Gophers averaged 6.9 yards per play, more than Auburn had allowed to any other team this season. Sure, most playcallers would be lucky to have the weapons that he did in any situation, but Simon called a good game that showed off some slight tweaks to the usually unvarying Minnesota offense.

There were some different formations, like this pistol look that opened each half:

The Gophers also used bunch formations more frequently, which help create confusion for defenders in man coverage. Auburn, not coincidentally, plays a lot of man coverage. This creative design featured Johnson cutting behind the tight end on a drive route:

Of course, Auburn was in zone on this play, so it doesn't illustrate my point bunch formations. But it was still a neat play that was a little different from what one expects from a Minnesota offense that loves its slants, go routes, and zone runs.

Simon also threw in this interesting reverse at the goal line, reviving the sweeps Johnson ran earlier in the season while selling outside zone.

The two tactical highlights of the game, however, were two more dramatic divergences from style.

As covered in my last "In Review" post, the Gophers' implementation of the Green Line did not include much variety this season. After throwing in the occasional pass in 2018, Ciarrocca totally abandoned passes out of this package. It made Seth Green's actions entirely predictable, leaving its success entirely up to the offensive line and Green himself. Though every play is ultimately down to how the players perform, at some point this just became suboptimal strategy.

Green's first two snaps against Auburn were predictable, and they didn't go anywhere. He gained 1 total yard on two rushing attempts, including getting stuffed on 3rd-and-goal.

Fleck took a timeout to consider whether to go for it on 4th down, and he correctly chose to do so. Though he doesn't always make the correct decision in those situations (see the Nebraska game), from that spot, it wasn't that surprising that he did. But Simon's play selection was a shock.

A pass!

It was Green's first pass attempt since the Purude game in 2018 and Bryce Witham's first target since the Nebraska game in 2018. It had been a long time since either was involved in the passing game (aside from Green's reception in garbage time against Wisconsin), and they connected for a touchdown in a huge moment. Witham effectively sold that he was blocking before breaking free, and Green put just enough air on his pass to get over Big Kat Bryant. It was an excellent call, and it was perfectly executed.

But neither Fleck's aggressiveness nor Witham's big day ended there. Fleck attempted two more 4th down conversions before the game ended. The first was a quarterback sneak from under center — a highly efficient play that Minnesota doesn't ever run, and that might have worked had Morgan not fumbled the snap.

This might be what happens when you never go under center.

The second 4th-down attempt was not just a highlight of the game, but a highlight of Minnesota's season. Late in the game with a 7-point lead, Fleck smartly chose not to trust his defense and punt, instead trying to kill the game. With the Tigers cramming the box and blitzing, Simon called a play-action pass to Witham, who once again delayed as if he was blocking before breaking into the seam. Morgan had first-team All-SEC defensive end Marlon Davidson in his face, but he got the ball out to Witham, who made a one-handed catch.

With the 1st down, the Gophers kept the ball. After another 1st down, Morgan knelt twice, and the game was over. Fleck's aggressiveness and Simon's shrewd playcalling (with a likely assist from Ciarrocca, who was around long enough to form much of the game plan, if not the whole thing) were each instrumental to Minnesota's win.

(I'm unsure whether Simon's performance helped lead to his promotion to co-offensive coordinator on Friday, but it cannot have hurt.)

5. The Tigers' passing game, aside from a few big plays, didn't get them anywhere.

Auburn favored throwing from the start of the game, dropping back 14 times and running four times in the first half. At times, that approach rewarded them. Bo Nix threw for a big 3rd down conversion in the second quarter when Chris Williamson lost track of fullback Spencer Nigh. Nigh made his second catch of the season on his second target.

Williamson nearly allowed another 3rd down conversion later on that drive, but Will Hastings bailed him out by dropping the ball.

The offense stayed on the field for 4th down, and the Tigers struck. The Gophers were in Cover 1, and deep safety Jordan Howden moved to his right to help his cornerback, clearing out the middle of the field. Once Sal Cannella got past the linebackers, he had too much room to not score. All Nix had to do was evade the pass rush and deliver an accurate throw. He did both.

Carter Coughlin should make this sack.

In addition to creating those big plays, the Tigers put together their only other full-length scoring drive mostly by passing. Counting a pass interference call against Benjamin St-Juste, Auburn gained 54 yards on seven pass attempts as part of a 13-snap, 86-yard drive that ended in a touchdown.

Outside of those possessions, however, Auburn didn't pass that well. Nix was 17-of-26 for just 176 yards because his receivers rarely found space to pick up yards after the catch. Gus Malzahn leaned heavily on quick passes (probably too much), and the Gophers made the tackles they needed to make.

After sacks from Baye Mafe and Sam Renner, Nix averaged 5.8 net yards per attempt. Though the Tigers' passing Success Rate was a decent 45 percent, they couldn't create big plays through the air. They needed to, as well, as Auburn's offensive problems didn't stop there.

6. Auburn could not run the ball.

Malzahn leaned more on the run game in the second half, and it didn't pay off. Auburn didn't often lose yardage on the ground, but the Tigers never gained many yards. Their only run to gain at least 10 yards was a Bo Nix scramble for 16. JaTarvious "Boobie" Whitlow and the other Auburn ballcarriers couldn't find any holes.

For the day, Auburn averaged 2.9 yards per carry and posted a miserable 25 percent Success Rate. Run blocking looked like one of Auburn's relative weaknesses going into the game, but it was surprising that the Gophers so suffocated the Tigers' running game. They did so while often backing off in coverage and while missing starting linebacker Kamal Martin, too. The defensive line, as well as the linebackers who played, deserve tons of credit for taking away another dimension of the Tigers' offense.

7. This space is reserved for absurd catches by Gophers receivers.

Johnson saved the Gophers' best catch of the season — and probably the best of his career — for his final game as a Gopher. There was some doubt that he got his foot down in the end zone (review upheld the catch but did not confirm it), but Aaron Lavinsky of the Star Tribune provided the definitive angle.

Follow along: Wild touchdown by WR Tyler Johnson just before half gives Gophers a 24-17 lead against Auburn. https://t.co/G3ovArXNXG via @StribSports @theothermegryan pic.twitter.com/hV6RHnZRkV

— Aaron Lavinsky (@ADLavinsky) January 1, 2020

8. There was no shortage of special teams happenings during the game.

Things started out well for Minnesota's struggling special teams unit. Michael Lantz's 40-yard field goal was the longest successful kick of his freshman season.

Then, things got a little chaotic. Immediately after Lantz's field goal, Noah Igbinoghene returned Grant Ryerse's kickoff 96 yards for a touchdown.

For the rest of the game, Minnesota avoided Auburn's return men as best they could with squib kicks. The Tigers tried to get them the ball anyway.

The squibs might have prevented another big return, but they gave Auburn good starting field position. Of the five possessions Auburn had off of squib kicks, four began beyond the Tigers' 30-yard line.

The series after Igbinoghene's touchdown, Minnesota got great field position off of a special teams play. The Gophers went three-and-out initially, but then Christian Tutt muffed Jacob Herbers' only punt of the afternoon. Barber recovered, and the Gophers scored a touchdown three plays later.

Continuing with punts, Malzahn offered a couple of wrinkles to Auburn's punting. First, he had Nix quick-kick from just beyond midfield, starting the Gophers' next drive at their own 8-yard line.

(When the Tigers first shifted into their punting formation, Fleck called a timeout — despite the fact that Nix had done this twice before in 2019, and it was on film, so the Gophers should have been prepared.)

Then, from a similar place on the field, Malzahn called for a fake punt. However, Minnesota's return unit was lined up in anticipation of a fake, and Arryn Siposs' pass went over John Samuel Shenker's head. Braelin Oliver might have held on the play, but it went uncalled, and the Gophers took over.

If I would have to pick a winner in this zany special teams display, I suppose it would have to be Minnesota because of Tutt's muff and the failed fake punt. That said, allowing a kick return for a touchdown, repeatedly gifting the Tigers good field position in fear of allowing another touchdown, and not taking advantage of space to return kicks are problems. Minnesota's special teams have struggled for most of the year; though there were some positive moments on a bizarre afternoon, those struggles continued into the final game of the season.

9. The Gophers dominated time of possession, but it wasn't why they won the game.

Fleck places a priority on a slow pace that keeps the opposing offense off the field and ensures his team wins the time of possession battle most games. The first stat he says he looks at in the box score is time of possession. It is clearly very important to Fleck.

However, the effects of time of possession (which I will initialize from here on out) are often incorrectly interpreted and discussed, so I want to use this game to explain what the stat actually means.

Every TOP figure requires ample context to understand. It says very little about a game, especially compared to other stats, and that's why many who study football statistics disregard it completely.

TOP can partially be the product of performance. An offense good enough to regularly convert 1st downs will stay on the field longer, and a defense good enough to regularly prevent them will give its offense more time on the field. For proof, see Wisconsin and South Florida: According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Badgers have the country's 8th-best offense and 7th-best defense. Their average TOP is the greatest in FBS. USF, meanwhile, has the 113th-ranked offense and 69th-ranked defense, according to FPI and their average TOP is 109th-greatest in FBS. When the two teams played each other in Week 1, Wisconsin possessed the ball for 35:00 and won 49-0.

But TOP is even more the product of style. An offense that runs the ball a lot, doesn't try to go downfield often, and plays at a slow pace will stay on the field longer than one that doesn't run much, that throws deep often, and doesn't wait to snap the ball. For proof, see Buffalo and Penn State: The Bulls run far more often than they pass, and their average TOP is the 5th-greatest in FBS. Contrastingly, the Nittany Lions create big plays frequently, often through the air. Their average TOP is 108th-greatest in FBS. When the two teams played each other in Week 2, Buffalo possessed the ball for 42:32 and lost 45-13.

Playing well and possessing the ball are not inextricably linked. You can barely possess the ball while still dominating your opponent. You can dominate possession while still barely competing. To use a soccer cliché (which has far less truth in that sport), it's not about how much you possess the ball; it's about what you do with possession. (If you think holding onto the ball for long stretches weakens the opposing defense or rests your own, research with NFL data suggests that isn't the case.)

Let's turn back to Wednesday's game. The Gophers take a long time to snap the ball generally, but against against Auburn, they did so even more; Fleck said after the game that it was an explicit goal to move slowly. Additionally, Auburn ran a hurry-up during some stretches and returned a kickoff for a touchdown, decreasing the amount of time that the Tigers had the ball. As a result, Minnesota won TOP with 37:35.

But they likely wouldn't have done so (at least not by as much as they did) unless the offense actually did its job and kept getting 1st downs, and unless the defense kept preventing them. In short, TOP reflected the Gophers' execution of their specific style and was not a reason for their performance.

That said, there are a couple of tangible effects when a team takes a TOP-focused approach. First, there's end-of-game scenarios. If you're winning, you obviously want to end the game as soon as possible. Even if you go three-and-out, you'd rather do so slowly than quickly. The Gophers' final drive ended the game by lasting 8:38. A drive consisting of the exact same plays would not have been as valuable in that situation if it lasted half as long because it would have given Auburn more chances to win.

Pace can also affect how many possessions there are in a game. Bad offenses that run few plays will have a lot of possessions no matter what, but if an offense is good enough to hog the ball, that decreases how many possessions there are in the game. Teams average around 13 possessions per game; Minnesota had fewer than 13 possessions in all but two games this season. That is a real effect of their offensive pace.

What limiting possessions does in turn is put more pressure on each side's offense: You only have so many opportunities to score, and you cannot squander them. When you have an efficient offense, or you're facing an opponent with a talent advantage, then it's more reasonable to try to limit the number of possessions. Minnesota has one of the most efficient offenses in the country, and Auburn is probably more talented, so that made a low-possession game a better idea.

But the important thing to note is that having a greater TOP does not cause a smaller number of possessions. A slower pace decreases the number of possessions, and a slower pace helps a team a have greater TOP (assuming they can move the ball). Think of those two outcomes as separate events, and look at other stats (such as yards per play) when evaluating performance.

The Gophers might not have won the game if they did not run at such a slow pace, as Auburn might have had more opportunities than their 10 drives gave them. Additionally, the Gophers were far less likely to win TOP if not for their slow pace. But winning TOP was not key to Minnesota's victory.

10. The Gophers broke through in 2019. They will next have to prove their staying power.

Barring any surprises, Minnesota's offense will bring back starters at nine of 11 positions next season, and each of the vacancies has a ready successor: Ibrahim at running back and Chris Autman-Bell at receiver. It's fair to wonder if Autman-Bell can approach Johnson's ceiling, but the position is set to have tremendous depth after the signings of five receivers in the two most recent recruiting classes. Another offseason will benefit a relatively young offensive line and the Gophers' soon-to-be-junior quarterback. One of college football's best offenses is likely to get better.

The defense loses much more: all six starting linemen and linebackers, as well as Williamson and probably safety Antoine Winfield Jr. The coaching staff heavily rotated the front six to give their underclassmen experience, and they made some signings to improve those positions this December. But turnover might still cause significant problems for a defense that was already just good rather than great — especially if the unit's top playmaker leaves for the NFL.

The schedule should be harder in 2020, too. Purdue, Northwestern, and Nebraska are all unlikely to be as bad as they were this season, and the same might go for Maryland. The other two Big Ten East opponents, Michigan and Michigan State, will be together better than Penn State and Rutgers together were this season (mainly because of how bad Rutgers was).

At this point, I'm not interested in predicting a specific record for next season, but because of a possible defensive decline and the schedule's added difficulty, I expect Minnesota to lose at least a game or two more next year than they did this year. The 2021 season, when a number of key players will be juniors and seniors, looks like the next best chance for a run at the division title.

Though my expectations are slightly tempered for 2020, the program is unequivocally in a great place, and the team will still be good next season. Depending on how the rest of the teams in the West progress, and if Fleck sticks around beyond the next couple of years, Minnesota could be dueling Wisconsin for the division title on an annual basis pretty soon, and they could find themselves in Pasadena before the end of the decade.

These are as exciting of times to be a Minnesota fan as there have been in decades, and those times could last a good while.