Midweek Review: Purdue 20-10 Minnesota

If there was a theme to Minnesota's homecoming game against Purdue, it was wasted opportunities. On the field, the amount of points the Gophers left on the field made the difference in the final score. They ran into the first defense that could slow them down, made costly mistakes, and couldn't capitalize fully on the mistakes that the Boilermakers made.

Meanwhile, their top rivals spent Saturday looking even more listless. The Gophers should have become the commanding favorites in their division. Instead, they go into an idle week with plenty of questions about their limitations on offense, as well as more reason to doubt that they can reach the great potential their season appeared to have (and still might have). This was a game Minnesota should have won, and they couldn't play consistently enough to do it.

1. Minnesota never recovered from early red zone failures.

In the first half, Minnesota got within 30 yards of the goal line three times. They came away with three points. In any game, 18 squandered points bite, but against one of the Gophers' chief competitors in the West, when scoring opportunities were hard to come by, those three failures — and the one made field goal counts as a failure — might have cost them the game, and subsequently could have greater consequences down the line.

The Gophers' first opportunity came after one of their only explosive plays all day. From the 10-yard line, they ran for 3 yards, then lost all of those yards on a foiled 2nd down rushing attempt. Facing 3rd-and-goal, one of the hallmarks of the P.J. Fleck era made its return: the low-percentage fade in a high-leverage situation.

Tanner Morgan didn't pretend to consider any other target on this throw. Cory Trice lined up with inside leverage over Daniel Jackson at the snap, an alignment that theoretically may have increased the chances of a successful play. But Trice was backed off far enough to keep pace with Jackson, and Morgan's throw was never going to be completed.

The Gophers could have at least come away with something to make up for the bad 3rd down call. However, Matthew Trickett missed the 27-yard field goal.

It was Trickett's first missed kick of any kind this season. That's the kind of day it was.

The next red zone trip was again set up by a big play. On 1st down, Morgan saw an uncovered Brevyn Spann-Ford breaking into the secondary on an over route. (The broadcast didn't show this, but having been in the stadium, I can report that Spann-Ford was very open.) However, right tackle Quinn Carroll got beat by Kydran Jenkins' speed rush, and Jenkins jarred the ball free as Morgan wound up to throw. Trey Potts was fortunately in the right place to catch the fumble on the fly, but Minnesota would have rather had the easy touchdown than the marginal gain.

On 2nd down, Jackson nearly moved the chains with an impressive sideline reception, but he couldn't drag his foot while completing the catch. This set up another 3rd-and-long, which ended up another shot to the end zone. Morgan locked onto Spann-Ford and might have completed the pass if he put the ball closer to the pylon, but it was behind him and just a bit too high.

Note an open Bryce Williams available for the checkdown.

Trice had help from the safety in coverage anyway, so an on-target throw might have been broken up once it hit Spann-Ford's hands. Either way, Trickett made the 45-yard field goal.

Morgan did make a touchdown-worthy pass later in the quarter. The problem: Michael Brown-Stephens let it go through his hands. It bounced off his shoulder pad and into Cam Allen's arms for an easy interception.

Watching live, I thought that Morgan could have given his receiver a little more lead. But if the pass was a couple inches more inside, Purdue likely would have batted it down. The ball wasn't behind Brown-Stephens, anyway, and Morgan didn't put too much speed on it. This was an easy touchdown, one Brown-Stephens would finish far more often than not if given the same opportunity again, and he missed it.

Three drives deep into Purdue territory, and Minnesota came away with nearly nothing. In the second half, the Gophers converted into a touchdown their one other foray into the red zone, but they needed more than that.

2. The Boilermakers devoured the Gophers' rushing attack.

It was clear from the outset that running the ball was not going to work. Nine of Minnesota's first 15 plays were runs, and they gained a total of 4 yards. Four of them were stopped for no gain or a loss. Purdue's defensive front has been one of the team's strengths, and it held firm this weekend.

Maybe the presence of Mohamed Ibrahim, who warmed up but did not play, would have given the Gophers a boost. No team can lose at the line like Minnesota did, however, and run the ball successfully. For the most part, it wouldn't have mattered who was in the backfield.

A crucial early moment where it became clear the Gophers weren't going to move the ball on the ground was on a 4th-and-1 from their own 29-yard line. Coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca went to the "Krispy" package, with Cole Kramer as the Wildcat quarterback. Minnesota broke out this package in the fourth quarter against Michigan State but otherwise had not used it this season. In short-yardage scenarios at meaningful moments, Ciarrocca has previously favored an I-formation with an extra lineman, often calling a quarterback sneak.

Instead, he brought out Kramer and ran split zone with Clay Geary coming across the formation, a call that worked a treat the week prior. Boilermakers lineman Khordae Sydnor beat Carroll, and after a decent initial push, right guard Chuck Filiaga lost leverage against Cole Brevard. Kramer, who might have been able to take the play through the left B-gap with a little more patience — though charging ahead might be a coaching point more than poor decision-making — ran into his two beaten blockers. He couldn't convert.

Fleck said after the game that a different playcall wouldn't have made a difference because of how the line got beaten off the ball. I would have gone under center but can't disagree with Fleck's point. The Boilers had five defenders on the line against eight blockers. Putting three receivers on the field had the intended effect: Even in this situation, Purdue's defensive backs had to account for Geary and the other wideouts. The Gophers had a numerical advantage, which is always the goal. They just lost the battle.

It wasn't one consistent problem that plagued the rushing attack. One issue was that Purdue had too many players near the line (unlike in the above play). Even when the Gophers got a good push up front, the ballcarrier was outnumbered. When Williams or Potts tried finding a cutback lane, there was a defender parked on the back side edge, ready to make the tackle. Minnesota tried using two tight ends on a couple of drives, seeking to even the odds up front, but they went away from it when it turned out not to help any. The Boilermakers rallied to the ball, took good angles, and tackled soundly. Minnesota never found a rhythm.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
line yards and success rate are via
collegefootballdata.com.

The Gophers were without Ibrahim a season ago but never had a rushing performance like they did Saturday. The Boilermakers have a good run defense but should not have caused the Gophers problems like that. Preseason questions about the U of M's remade offensive line are relevant again, and Ciarrocca must find ways to get his running backs more room.

3. Morgan threw two unlucky, untimely interceptions, he wasn't properly protected by his line, and he wasn't supported by his skill players... but he was also not good enough.

We've been over Morgan's second interception. Now here's the first:

It looks like Morgan wanted to hit Jackson on this bootleg, but Jack Sullivan read the play and got his hands up. The deflection put the pass in the path of Jacob Wahlberg, who caught it with ease. In hindsight, it's easy to say that Morgan could have just taken the 10-yard sack, but this interception was much more about good defense and a bad bounce than any action Morgan took.

While the pressure that caused this interception was not the offensive line's fault, it does serve as a convenient segue. According to Pro Football Focus, Purdue pressured Morgan on 12 of his 38 dropbacks, which comes out to a slightly lower rate than New Mexico State managed (31.6 percent to 33.3 percent) but stands as the highest number of pressures Morgan has faced in 2022. Alarmingly, not one of those pressures came on a blitz. The Gophers' offensive line just got beat. PFF pinned three pressures apiece on Carroll and Aireontae Ersery.

Morgan scrambled a couple of times to salvage the play, but the Boilermakers still sacked him twice. In the second half, Ciarrocca called more screen passes to get around the pressure, but that didn't work too well. A second half tunnel screen to Jackson gained no yards, and Williams made limited progress whenever he got a go in the flat.

Separation was an issue for the Gophers' wideouts for most of the day. Purdue's co-defensive coordinators, Ron English and Mark Hagen, had their unit back off and eliminate passing windows. The defensive backs stayed on their assignments' hips but mostly avoided penalties (a chronic issue for them this season), regularly requiring either a dead-on throw or a contested catch.

While acknowledging that his receivers couldn't make plays, and that his line struggled to keep him clean against a four-man rush, Morgan was short of the level needed in this game. He was poised in the pocket overall but too often locked onto his first read and displayed inconsistent accuracy, even without a rush. That sprung up at varying points throughout the game...

...and especially so in his last attempt, when he woefully overshot Brown-Stephens and threw directly to Allen. It was the first interception of the game that was really his fault.

Morgan has had far worse performances, and he might have been the least of the Gophers' problems on Saturday. Ultimately, though, he demonstrated the limits of his capabilities. Most of the time, he won't lose his team games. But if other parts of the offense aren't working, Morgan's ceiling usually isn't high enough to carry Minnesota to a win.

4. Jackson has flashed the potential to be Minnesota's top receiver.

There was at least one bright spot for the Gophers offensively. Jackson followed up an impressive showing against Michigan State with the best performance among Minnesota skill players. His 110 yards made for the highest total of any receiver in Saturday's game, and much of it came from the work he did after the catch.

Jackson came to Minnesota as a composite 4-star prospect, the program's highest-rated signing in the 2020 class. And while he's been pretty good as a Gopher, he's never had quite the opportunity that exists for him now: the team searching for a new top wideout, an offensive philosophy somewhat interested in passing. Since coming back to the field after a preseason injury, Jackson has made a bigger impact than he ever did as an underclassman.

The Gophers don't need him to become a star. Keeping up this level of performance will be plenty. If he indeed can keep it up — and, to be fair, he was quieter in the second half — Jackson will give this offense some much-needed dynamism and explosive potential.

5. The Minnesota defense had a difficult start but settled into the game.

The first two possessions of the game were not what the Gophers have become used to. An offensive three-and-out preceded a 10-play, 68-yard Purdue scoring drive, the first time all season Minnesota's starting defense allowed a touchdown.

The Boilermakers mostly made it happen by running the ball. Their seven rushing attempts totaled 41 yards, and five of them counted as "successful" from an analytical perspective. The Gophers were not as solid as in prior weeks, struggling to hold the edge, misjudging pursuit angles, and missing tackles.

It was a most disconcerting start. Fortunately, though, the Gophers corrected those issues quickly. Over the next 10 drives, Purdue averaged 3.2 yards per carry and couldn't find explosive plays through the passing game. For the overwhelming majority of the game, Minnesota kept their opponents in check, swarming to the ball and tackling better. Statistically, it could have been better, but the final numbers are skewed by two poor spells. At least against the run, it came out to an okay day.

The Gophers also generated three vital turnovers. Safeties Tyler Nubin and Jordan Howden each made interceptions that started their offense in opposing territory. Nubin (who might have given Minnesota's best individual performance on either side of the ball) shut down a Purdue scoring opportunity by forcing a fumble.

Howden, Nubin, and the rest of the secondary were quite busy. Terell Smith broke up two passes and led the team with 6.5 tackles (6 solo, 1 assisted). Justin Walley added 5.0 tackles (4 solo, 2 assisted), and Beanie Bishop made a crucial pass breakup in the end zone when Smith went to the sideline with an injury. Purdue's scheme is largely centered around short passes that force defensive backs to prevent yards after the catch. Minnesota's corners were up to the task.

The reason this game stayed so close for as long as it did is because of how well Minnesota played defensively. The first three games were against lifeless offenses, and the Gophers had the benefit of a positive game state basically from the jump against Michigan State. This kind of defensive effort, even while considering the issues at the beginning and end, will be good enough to win most of the time.

6. At the critical juncture, the Gophers' defense burst open.

For three quarters, Charlie Jones did not stand out. He briefly left the field for an injury but didn't miss that much time. He just didn't make a huge impact: five catches for 27 yards were all he contributed.

Aidan O'Connell wasn't that impressive either. As a quarterback typically does in the Brohm brothers' system, O'Connell delivered a lot of short passes and didn't have any problems. However, his few attempts that went farther didn't pan out. Good coverage, drops, or simple inaccuracy meant the Boilermakers didn't offer a real downfield threat. Minnesota's defense did its job.

Purdue got the ball back with about 10 minutes left in the game, and a couple of plays later they had a new set of downs. After a small gain on 1st down, O'Connell tried his favorite receiver one more time.

The 28-yard gain could have been much worse if not for Walley's shoestring tackle, but Walley was just about toasted if he didn't somehow catch Jones' foot. Jones beat his man badly, and the throw was dead-on. Purdue moved to the edge of the red zone, and their win probability (as tracked by ESPN) spiked by 7 points.

The Boilermakers could only finish the drive with a field goal but then forced yet another three-and-out. By the time they got the ball back, they had a three-in-four chance of winning the game. They entered Saturday with a roughly one-in-four chance, according to most projections.

And then Devin Mockobee delivered the backbreaker. Or, really, the Gophers let him.

Mariano Sori-Marin did a poor job maintaining the backside edge on a designed run to the left, and a nickel blitz meant he had no support when Mockobee found the cutback lane on the right. Once Mockobee got to the second level, he just juked out the Gophers, who got in each other's way and couldn't get a grip on him. It was the third-most impactful play of the game, by win probability added. After Mockobee scored on the next snap, Minnesota's percent chance of winning was in the single digits.

Coordinator Joe Rossi prides himself on his defense's ability to prevent explosive plays. For most of the game, the Gophers did that. It's just that two untimely errors can make a major impact on a tight game, if not ultimately determine the result.

7. The Gophers took advantage of O'Connell's mistakes. Partially.

Another frustrating aspect of Saturday was how the three takeaways Minnesota got somehow felt like fewer than they deserved. There was reason to be concerned about facing a healthy O'Connell, considered by many the best quarterback in the Big Ten West. With him in the game, the Boilermakers should have posed a legitimate downfield threat than they had with Austin Burton the previous week. But O'Connell was rather ordinary. As usual, he posted a high completion rate (67.5 percent), but he only averaged 7.4 yards per completion, was not very good when asked to perform under pressure, and was well off target on a handful of occasions.

The Gophers turned two of O'Connell's inaccurate passes into interceptions, but they could have easily doubled that. By PFF's tracking, they dropped four interceptions. Two were charged to Smith, who overall had a good game and played a key role in containing Jones. But he might not see another pass thrown so directly into his arms as this one:

Once again: For all their inconsistencies, not too many more plays needed to go the Gophers' way for them to win. Converting just one of those missed opportunities into a third interception might have done the job.

8. Bad penalties foiled a couple of promising moments.

After Morgan's second interception, Purdue got the ball back with 80 yards to go and just under 2 minutes left in the second quarter. The Boilermakers' drive quickly fizzled out, though, and it looked like the Gophers would get the ball back with ample time (and two timeouts) to tie the game before halftime. Except...

Braelen Oilver, not doing anything wrong by flying onto the scene to help Danny Striggow stop Tyrone Tracy Jr., didn't pull up when Tracy had already stepped out of bounds. Oliver then did something very wrong and laid him out. The hit incurred a 15-yard penalty that kept Purdue's drive going.

Nubin's interception a few plays later made sure the Gophers got one more shot with the ball, but not until there were just 28 seconds left. With the extra 25 or so seconds they would have gotten by forcing a punt, the Gophers would have had more playcalling options and therefore would have stood a better chance of scoring before the intermission.

Another costly error was this hold by Derik LeCaptain, which negated a 64-yard kick return for Quentin Redding in the fourth quarter.

Did the hold affect the play at all? No. LeCaptain gained no advantage from grabbing his man's jersey. He just never let go, and it cost his team great field position at a moment where they desperately needed it.

These kinds of unforced mistakes are the kind of thing that Fleck's Gophers have typically done well to avoid. They appear small compared to the team's problems moving the ball, or to the late big plays, but in a basically 50-50 game, small events tend to have major ramifications.

9. Minnesota's new returner may have something. We still need to see how much.

Redding has not had a lot of opportunities to shine, but this game in particular suggested that the redshirt freshman can provide a spark. His fourth-quarter kick return didn't count, but it took some explosiveness to make happen. On punts, he hasn't quite been able to wriggle out of good coverage and break off a big return, but Redding has made a few players miss and picked up smatterings of extra yards. And, crucially, Redding is catching the ball. (This has not always been true for Minnesota returners!)

So far, Redding doing enough right and offering small glimpses of promise. If he follows through on that promise, maybe the Gophers can get a little extra out of their special teams unit.

10. The Big Ten West looked like Minnesota's to lose, but it's back up for grabs.

Two games into the Big Ten schedule, six teams are tied for 1st in the West at 1-1. We can write off woeful Nebraska and Northwestern teams in the division race, and last-place Wisconsin's odds look increasingly dire. All four of the other teams can realistically take a spot in Indianapolis this December. ESPN's Football Power Index sees it as just a race between Minnesota and Purdue, but the division is too messy to consider it down to just two teams.

The Gophers and Boilers have comparable schedules the rest of the way, with the key difference being a cross-division game at Penn State instead of at Maryland. Illinois still has to play most of the top of the division, and drawing Michigan State and Michigan makes things a bit harder for the Illini on top of that. Iowa will probably lose at Ohio State, which would not eliminate them from the race but would put them in the same category as Wisconsin: The Hawkeyes and Badgers likely need to be perfect otherwise, and they're each too flawed to consider that.

As for the Gophers: They don't need perfection to guarantee a division title, but losing this game costs them a tiebreaker in the standings over the Boilers. Anything worse than going 6-1 after the bye may keep them out of the conference title game; if it doesn't, two additional losses will nevertheless end any hopes of a major bowl game. A double-digit regular season win total has to be the target to achieve Minnesota's grandest ambitions.

Next Game

After a week off, Minnesota goes on the road to play an alarmingly capable Illinois team. Few teams in FBS suffered more turnover from last season than the Illini, yet here they are: 4-1, having most recently pummeled the Badgers in Madison. Bret Bielema's team is not astounding or complete, but it is playing beyond all reasonable expectations.

This game seems destined to be a rock fight. Illinois' defense ranks 2nd in FBS in success rate allowed, which is how they've only given up 42 points over the first five games. Coordinator Ryan Walters has fielded one of the stingiest run defenses in the country; opponents have averaged 3.8 yards per non-sack carry, which ranks 18th in the FBS. The Badgers only mustered 31 rushing yards on 19 attempts, a performance bad enough to get Paul Chryst fired.

The Illini have gotten plenty from the two outside tackles in their three-man line, Keith Randolph Jr. and Jer'Zhan Newton. The two have combined for 11.0 tackles for loss (6.0 sacks), ranking 1st and 2nd in TFLs on a defense that hasn't lacked for disruption. PFF credits Newton with 27 pressures, which is three times as many as any Gopher has recorded. At the back, cornerback Devon Witherspoon and safety Jartavius Martin have defensed 17 passes, with Martin especially chipping in against the run as well. The Illini will put their opponents behind schedule.

Two big questions will face Illinois' defense against Minnesota. The first: If they can drag the Gophers into an ugly, low-efficiency game, will the Illini still give up big plays? As suffocating as the line can be, there isn't always support behind it. Illinois is 110th in collegefootballdata.com's explosiveness metric, and opposing runners have usually been the culprit. The biggest, most frequent bursts came in Week 0 against Wyoming, but they didn't go away in Illinois' other non-conference games. Even at this point, about two-thirds of the rushing yards they have allowed (312 of 467) came on just 24 carries. The few times the Illini have broken, they've burst.

Shutting down Wisconsin entirely could serve as evidence that Illinois is past all of that, but that game actually brings us to the other big question: How can this defense perform against a decent passing attack?

Here's how the Illini lined up on Wisconsin's first snap Saturday:

Like the Gophers last November, the Illini sold out against the run and bet that Graham Mertz couldn't beat them, especially if under significant pressure. That bet paid off. Mertz was pedestrian and took five sacks. There were too many bodies in the box for even Braelon Allen (on just a few carries) to cause too much damage.

Meanwhile, Wyoming, Indiana, and Virginia have averaged 5.8 yards per pass attempt outside of their games against U of I. The fourth Illini opponent, UT-Chattanooga, was an FCS team. How well you play matters more than whom you play, but it's fair to say that the Illinois secondary has not faced a serious test. If Minnesota can gain an advantage through the air, their running backs might find enough room to gain a foothold in the game.

It won't be any secret where the Minnesota defense's focus needs to be. It's Chase Brown, one of the top tailbacks in America. Only Marshall's Khalan Laborn has carried the ball more times than Brown, who leads the FBS in rushing yards. Brown is good for at least one explosive run per game.

Isaiah Williams, a converted quarterback now playing receiver, is another high-volume target. Williams has made as many catches as Pat Bryant and Brian Hightower put together (35). He usually plays in the slot, taking a pass near the line of scrimmage and turning into yards after the catch. The 6-foot-3-inch Bryant is a fairly effective downfield option, and Hightower gets the occasional deeper target but mostly joins the tight ends in catching short stuff.

Quarterback Tommy DeVito is a limited passer but so far has run the offense well enough. His 69.9 percent completion rate and two interceptions, plus his average of 10.5 yards per completion, might as well spell out GAME MANAGER in Arial Black. He's sack-prone if forced to hold onto the ball, but Brown's effectiveness and offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr.'s scheme have made sure DeVito doesn't face such a challenge. He gets rid of the ball quickly, doesn't turn it over, and rarely tests the safeties. He's fine as a runner but not spectacular. DeVito offers boring, low-ceiling stability that Illinois could have used in recent seasons. But DeVito can't win a game for them.

Minnesota's task will be clear: Shoot for explosive plays to build an early lead — unlike last year — and limit Brown's impact. The Illini will drag the Gophers into the mud. The Gophers have to make sure it's their hosts, however, who are fighting to escape that mud in the final stretch.