Midweek Review: Western Illinois 10-62 Minnesota

The Gophers' Week 2 was a lot like their Week 1, except a bit more explosive. They did what was expected of them against a vastly inferior opponent, never trailing and giving more than a quarter of playing time to their backups. We saw a few new things, a lot of touchdowns, and very little drama. You can't find much fault in how Minnesota has started the 2022 season.

1. The Gopher passing attack led the way.

Early on, Western Illinois was determined to not get plowed over on the ground. Especially against 12 personnel (which is not what's depicted below), they stayed out of nickel and kept all their linebackers either in or just outside the box. Facing a severe size advantage up front, that was their only hope of slowing down Mohamed Ibrahim and Trey Potts.

The strategy didn't quite work — we'll get to that momentarily — but it did manage to cause a few negative runs. That was more than New Mexico State ever managed the week before.

In part because of this inconvenience, but mostly because of what space the Leathernecks were giving them, the Gophers opened up the passing game a bit. Tanner Morgan threw for 287 yards, his most since the bowl win over Auburn on New Year's Day 2020.

Unlike last week, when offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca was content to grind the visiting defense into dust, the Gophers attacked the deep part of the field. Morgan completed three of his four attempts beyond 20 yards, starting with this strike to Chris Autman-Bell.

Autman-Bell finished with 118 yards on five catches, the most of any Gopher on the day. The rest of his work was a little more typical, going over the middle for slants and picking up yards after the catch against slower defensive backs.

With the starters' last few possessions, Ciarrocca decided to score some style points with novel play designs. Redshirt freshman Le'Meke Brockington made his second college reception on a wheel route, which stemmed off a fake bubble screen. Morgan nearly threw an interception but just managed to squeeze the ball past the closing Leatherneck safety.

Morgan's last throw happened on one of this author's favorite passing concepts, a tight end "leak." It started with a play-action rollout to Morgan's left, which drew the defense towards him and away from a streaking Brevyn Spann-Ford down the right sideline. It was an easy 45-yard touchdown.

Considering how vanilla Minnesota otherwise was in their first two games, it was a surprise that Ciarrocca diverged from typical Gophers playcalling at a point where the game was already won. If it's a sign that he's more willing to vary the offense than he was last time, these calls gave opposing defenses something to look out for: Maybe Brockington will get the ball when he's on the field; maybe the bubble-slant combo they're setting up is actually a deep shot; maybe when Morgan turns his back, he's not just going to hand it off. The touchdown in particular is a prime example of how going under center can open things up downfield for the Gophers' play-action game. Maybe Ciarrocca introduces another way to play off that concept, or calls for it to go in the opposite direction next time.

Of course, these calls came out well after the existence of a neutral game state. Maybe these calls were just to finish off the regulars' day with some fireworks. Which wouldn't be the worst thing in the world — let the record show that long passing touchdowns are rad, even in garbage time — but would be a bit of a waste. The Gophers have badly needed more varied and aggressive playcalling, and they can't just break it out for fun or when things are dire. They can't win the division just by leaning on their bread and butter. Ciarrocca will need to keep finding creative ways to score once the opposition gets tougher.

2. The Minnesota rushing attack, while not as close to perfect as a week prior, romped.

As established, Western Illinois came out ready to slow down the run game as much as possible. If they put enough bodies in the way, the theory went, the disparity in size and talent wouldn't matter as much. It's worked for other Minnesota opponents in the past. If the Leathernecks could give up a couple yards at a time and force some 3rd-and-longs, and if the Gophers kept force-feeding their running backs instead of opening things up, the game might have stayed within reach.

Early on, that tactic showed some merit. On the Gophers' second drive, they averaged 2.9 yards per carry.

The first problem for the Leathernecks was that the Gophers converted a 3rd-and-5, turned a 3rd-and-11 into a 4th-and-2 conversion, and had their first touchdown set up by a holding call in the secondary.

The second problem was, as covered, that Minnesota countered what WIU presented them and threw the ball. When the Gophers started attacking the secondary and using lighter personnel, the gameplan had to be abandoned. At that point, the Leathernecks got pushed around. It became routine.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
line yards and success rate are via
collegefootballdata.com.

Even when Nathan Boe briefly entered the game at right guard for Chuck Filiaga, Minnesota kept the ball moving. It was another highly successful day on the ground.

3. While it's early, Ibrahim looks as effective as he was before his knee injury.

You can fairly call 262 yards against New Mexico State and Western Illinois empty calories, but the way the Gophers' star running back has gone about his first two games this season has been most impressive. Ibrahim still punishes bad tackling and routinely pushes for extra yards thanks to his exceptional power and balance. Pro Football Focus credits him with 4.1 yards after contact per carry, 3rd-best among FBS tailbacks with at least 40 carries.

Getting performances like this out of Ibrahim, while continuing to manage his load, bodes well for the Minnesota run game. When at full strength, he is a truly special player. No running back can win a game by himself, but Ibrahim can sure tilt the odds in his team's favor.

4. In the late stages, a few offensive reserves stood out.

In his second career appearance, redshirt freshman Athan Kaliakmanis was sharp. He and Cole Kramer alternated drives at quarterback after Morgan's day ended, as predicted, and Kaliakmanis had the better showing: Three completions on three attempts, plus his first career touchdown on a goal-line sneak. He delivered his passes with accuracy and with real zip.

Considering the low quality of the upcoming opponent, Kaliakmanis and Kramer should both get some more live reps. Assuming neither has seized the backup quarterback job, how they do in these late-game scenarios could help decide who enters the game if Morgan has to leave. I'm still inclined to think it's Kramer because he has more game experience, and because these are such small samples, but so far, Kaliakmanis hasn't done anything wrong.

Clay Geary also got to make a late mark on the game. All three of his catches came in the second half, and each of them gained at least 18 yards. If his contributions were inconsequential, they were not meaningless: Geary missed the whole 2021 season due to injury, and this game more than doubled the seventh-year senior's career yardage total. Since he is already getting first-team snaps, it can't hurt for Geary to get a few catches under his belt in the event the ball comes his way in a more competitive situation.

Another player coming back from injury, tailback Preston Jelen, made his own contribution. While his "breakaway" speed won't let him do this against Big Ten athletes, Jelen did well to wheel around the WIU defense and score his first college touchdown.

Though he was an all-state running back at Prior Lake High School, Jelen has generally done more on special teams than in the backfield since joining the Gophers. That he did something with the ball in his hands was one of the highlights of the Gophers' afternoon, and of Jelen's college career.

5. Between missed throws and effective defense, the Leathernecks couldn't pass.

Against UT-Martin, Western Illinois got more done offensively with Nick Davenport playing quarterback. He evaded pressure and made some tough throws while on the move, ending up with three passing touchdowns in relief of Henry Ogala.

Even so, Davenport's quarterbacking style is hardly composed or even smart. He can be reckless with the ball and doesn't have enough accuracy to make his wild-card approach always worth it. Against a much more capable opponent, head coach Myers Hendrickson again started Ogala over Davenport. A sixth-year player who's shown decent pocket presence, he's supposed to be the Leathernecks' steady hand. The team will take a low ceiling if it means a higher floor than what Davenport should provide.

Instead, Ogala has been comparably inconsistent, but with less mobility and without any big plays. On Saturday, he averaged just 4.3 yards per completion while completing fewer than half of his attempts. By the Leathernecks' third drive, Davenport was back in.

Only Davenport wasn't up to the task either. Gains of 23, 33, and 38 yards (including WIU's only touchdown) didn't offset his bad decisions and errant passes.

According to PFF, Minnesota never blitzed Davenport. Defensive coordinator Joe Rossi let his pass rush go to work and waited for Davenport to make mistakes in the pocket. He finished 8-for-15, and Ogala returned under center at the start of the third quarter.

Without decent protection or quarterback play, the Leathernecks didn't really have a chance to get a passing game going. That killed any possibility of a comeback.

Of course, when needed, the Minnesota defense did make some plays. When the Leathernecks had an early 4th-and-short on the Gophers' side of the field, safety Jordan Howden quickly diagnosed the play off of Jafar Armstrong's motion into the flat. Howden didn't even let Armstrong back to the line of scrimmage, let alone the line to gain.

Armstrong got the better of Howden on a deep post near the end of the first quarter, but Howden made up for it later with a diving interception.

What the Leathernecks could do to move the ball, they could only do in brief moments. To put it bluntly, the Gopher defense didn't have to be anywhere near its best.

6. Minnesota totally stymied the Western Illinois ground game.

Plays like Howden's 4th down stop reflected the prevailing theme of Western Illinois' possessions: Minnesota just had faster players. The Leathernecks couldn't get any yards after the catch in the passing game, and on the ground, the Gophers enveloped them.

This is what it looks like statistically when a rushing attack can't make a dent. Though WIU picked up a few bigger chunks than New Mexico State did against the Gophers, those instances usually came on passing downs, and they rarely were successful. The Gophers started those plays backed off the line but rallied to the ball before they could give up conversions.

Outside of those moments, the Leathernecks couldn't do anything between the tackles or when trying to take the edge. They looked like a bad FCS offense playing a good Big Ten defense.

7. Cody Lindenberg was one of Minnesota's standout defenders.

Lindenberg finished the game with 5.0 tackles (4 solo, 2 assisted), a total that by itself makes him the second-leading tackler on the team for this young season. (He did not make any tackles versus NMSU.) Plays where Lindenberg got at least a share of the tackle gained an average of 3.3 yards; three ended at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Toward the end of the second quarter, it seemed like Lindenberg was in on every play WIU ran. As the season continues, we'll see whether this performance foreshadows a breakout.

8. WIU, facing a major challenge on the road, took some swings. They just didn't land.

Hendrickson went for it three times on 4th down as an underdog against UT-Martin in Week 1. Failing twice didn't dissuade him from being aggressive as an even bigger underdog on Saturday. After recovering a fumble on the second snap of the game, the Leathernecks almost immediately faced a 4th-and-3 in Minnesota territory. It would have been a difficult field goal — probably out of Mason Laramie's range — and WIU couldn't afford to pass up a scoring opportunity. It didn't work, but it was the right decision. Later, from a nearly identical spot, Hendrickson decided to go for it again, and a roughing the passer call kept the Leathernecks moving.

Hendrickson is also the Leathernecks' offensive playcaller, and he did as much as he could to confuse the Gophers defensively. WIU deployed a number of shifts and motions, including flexing out the right tackle on an early 3rd down. It forced P.J. Fleck to take a timeout. However, when Hendrickson went back to it after the timeout, it didn't work. Trill Carter immediately cut through the line and flushed Davenport from the pocket, ultimately resulting in intentional grounding.

Aside from a couple of long completions, the Leathernecks couldn't muster anything. While they took risks and got weird, they just didn't have the talent or athleticism to make the game competitive beyond the first quarter.

9. There are not many seasons in Minnesota history that have started with such dominance.

To reiterate: These were two bad teams whom Minnesota was supposed to beat handily. These were two bad teams whom Minnesota was supposed to beat handily. These were two bad teams whom Minnesota was supposed to beat handily.

Okay, now that that's out of the way: Let's put these two blowouts into some historical context.

The total margin of victory in these two games was 90 points. The Gophers have never equaled that mark in a season where they did not play at least one high school team. (In 1890 and 1905, Minnesota beat Shattuck, a boarding school in Faribault; in 1904 and 1905, they played Twin Cities Central High School. This practice was common at the turn of the 20th century.) The closest any other Minnesota team came to a plus-90 margin was in 1945, when the Gophers beat Missouri and Nebraska by a combined 95-7 scoreline.

So there. This is the greatest margin by which the Gophers have ever beaten a pair of college football teams to start their season. But what might it say about the team going forward?

In the above chart, you can see that I only listed seasons that began with two consecutive wins of 20 or more points. This was in part to keep the chart from getting unruly, but also to set a line for what constitutes a blowout. You can argue differently, but 20 points felt like a fair line.

Using that definition, there have been 18 previous seasons that Minnesota opened with two blowout wins over college teams. If we count ties as half-wins, in just two of those years (1945 and 1982) did the team finish with a record below .500. That suggests that a team does not typically luck into winning by this much. While the quality of opposition likely needs to be poor to get such lopsided results, the victors should at least be good enough to make a bowl.

However, since it's the Gophers' history, there are not many exceptional seasons in this sample. The only national championship team on this list of 18 was in 1934. The six most recent teams to start with two blowouts, the ones coached by Glen Mason or Jerry Kill, averaged eight wins. The only other team in Gophers history to score 100 to start a season, the 2004 team, was just 7-5 at season's end.

In other words, history tells us these Gophers are likely pretty good. The teams they've faced are exceptionally bad, but it seems a reasonable bet that they're at least going bowling. Our preseason prognostication could have predicted such a floor anyhow.

We cannot use this opening stretch to prognosticate where the ceiling is, though. Maybe this is the year they win the West. (More on that below.) Maybe they have a mundane, somewhat unsatisfying but altogether respectable season. There are 10 more regular season games to go, and the truth is that we have barely any clue what will happen.

(A side note: The first opponent the 2004 Gophers beat was a Bruce Gradkowski-quarterbacked Toledo, who ended up winning the MAC. The next season, Minnesota stomped eventual Conference USA champions Tulsa, who featured All-American tight end Garrett Mills, before finishing 7-5.

I'm not sure what to do with that. I just find it interesting that two years in a row, the Gophers pulverized a team with a pulse before finishing with a merely okay record. Probably a reason fans became frustrated with late-period Glen Mason!)

10. Minnesota has yet to be tested but, unlike the other Big Ten West teams, hasn't stumbled.

All six of the other teams in the Gophers' division have lost, and most of them have done so in embarrassing ways or to unremarkable opponents. Iowa's offense has been responsible for 10 points through two games, a level of moribundity that resulted in the Hawkeyes relinquishing the Cy-Hawk Trophy for the first time in eight years. Wisconsin and Northwestern dropped home games to teams under first-year head coaches. Illinois opened the season with a late loss to Indiana. And Nebraska, whose Week 0 game against Northwestern was disastrous, struggled to put away North Dakota and then lost at home to a rebuilding Georgia Southern. Scott Frost was fired the next day.

Outside of Purdue, whose only loss was by 4 points to Penn State, everyone else in the West has lost games they likely should have won. By SP+, the only teams in the West whose rankings have improved since the preseason are Minnesota, Purdue, and Illinois. The Gophers just became the highest-ranked team in the division and are now projected (by a hair) as the third-most likely team to win the Big Ten.

Obviously, we should temper any reactions to these first two games. New Mexico State and Western Illinois are probably the two worst opponents of the Fleck era at Minnesota. Beating them so handily should be celebrated, but nevertheless treated with the appropriate weight. The Gophers will face their three toughest foes, including their biggest rival in the West, on the road. This team will probably lose multiple games in conference play, and their road to a division championship has not actually begun.

Even so, dominance is evidence of some level of quality. Taking care of easy business counts for something. As we've seen, not everybody does it. In a division full of flawed and inconsistent teams, the team that keeps taking care of easy business might end up in Indianapolis.

Next Game

Colorado could seriously finish with an 0-12 record this season. They've already got the 0-2 start down, and ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Buffaloes a 24-percent chance of going winless in Pac-12 play. It's been a horrid start for a program that used to compete for Big Eight titles but has posted a .352 winning percentage since 2006.

When the Gophers (and a few thousand of their fans) went to Boulder a season ago, they made easy work of their hosts, allowing just 12 non-sack rushing yards. The Gophers sacked Brendon Lewis four times, and they didn't always have to work hard to make that happen.

J.T. Shrout, who missed the 2021 season after transferring from Tennessee, started at quarterback last week against Air Force and struggled mightily. In a 41-10 loss, Shrout went 5-for-21 for 51 yards and an interception. Between him and Lewis, the Buffs' passers are being pressured on more than a third of their dropbacks, according to PFF. While Shrout could hold onto the ball for not as long, the underwhelming output of CU's rushing attack suggests that more than anything, the team's line still needs work.

What definitely needs work is the Buffaloes' rushing defense. Through two games, they have allowed 756 total yards on the ground, for an average of 8.1 per carry. Minnesota ran for 281 yards in last season's meeting, and that was without Ibrahim. Another huge day could be in the cards for the Gophers' running backs.

Since CU's first two opponents have not thrown much (just 28 passing attempts, most of which came from TCU), we don't have much of a gauge on the team's transitioning pass defense. The Buffs haven't recorded a sack, and the only pass breakup on their roster belongs to defensive end Chance Main. The secondary, breaking in four new starters, didn't allow any backbreaking explosive passes to TCU but gave up a few chunk plays and failed to put the Horned Frogs off schedule. Morgan and the Gophers might have an efficient day throwing the ball.

Colorado will be the strongest opponent Minnesota has faced so far. It's also hard to find something the Buffaloes do well. Offensively, they are a wreck up front, and the quarterbacks and skill players haven't shown they can make up for it. Their defense may not be as shambolic but will not be able to stop the Gophers from running the ball. Barring turnovers or special teams wonkiness — two things Fleck's team has avoided thus far — Minnesota should end the non-conference schedule with another low-stress victory over an inferior team.