In Review: Nebraska 7-34 Minnesota

Before the season, a 6-0 start to Minnesota's season was a definite possibility. FPI gave it an 18 percent chance of happening. SP+ gave it an 11 percent chance. Though there were some likely toss-ups on the front half of the schedule, the Gophers were probably going to be favorites in most of those six games, if not in all of them.

The non-conference schedule inspired worry, some of it warranted, after a trio of single-possession victories. The Big Ten opener against Purdue felt incomplete, despite the fact that the result was close to certain for much of the fourth quarter, because the final margin was 7 points.

The Gophers have ended those worries with two complete routs of teams that blew them out last season, finding their way into the AP Poll for the first time in five years.

The team is bowl eligible. The fans, usually a fickle lot, are happy. The Chair is back in Minneapolis. The next two opponents are very beatable, and it's easy to daydream about beating two of the four after the bye week.

It turns out being 6-0 feels pretty good.

1. The Minnesota rushing attack keeps raising the bar for itself.

The Gophers' running back trio of Rodney Smith, Shannon Brooks, and Mohamed Ibrahim played its first ever game together. This came right after Smith and Brooks totaled more than 300 yards against Illinois. The results were as good as Minnesota could have hoped they'd be. There was a lot of this:

And this:

And this:

The visiting Cornhuskers had no chance. Though the Gophers did not break any runs rivaling Smith's 64-yarder last week, they ran for 10 or more yards 10 times. For the third straight week, the Gophers had a new best day of the season on the ground — in yards per carry, in line yards per carry, and in highlight yards per opportunity.

Read about line yards and highlight yards here.

Nebraska's rushing defense has not been bad in every game this season. It's just that the Cornhuskers have struggled mightily against teams who can generate explosive runs.

Sacks and kneeldowns do not count as carries.

Running the ball was going to be a major part of offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca's game plan, especially with Dicaprio Bootle and Lamar Jackson in the Nebraska secondary. (Jackson broke up two passes Saturday; he now leads FBS with 11.) Until the Huskers showed they could consistently stop the run, they were going to see plenty of Smith, Brooks, and Ibrahim, and they never showed it.

It wasn't just the three backs who had a good day. The offensive line opened plenty of holes and prevented negative plays. The Gophers' opportunity rate (57.4 percent) and stuff rate (8.5 percent) were their second-best marks of the season. And that was without right tackle Daniel Faalele, who was injured.

2. Facing another explosive running back, the Minnesota defense again shut down the run.

Last October, Maurice Washington averaged 7.8 yards per carry against the Gophers, and entering Saturday, he was up to 6.3 yards per carry this season. Like Illinois' Reggie Corbin in Minnesota's previous game, however, Washington was unremarkable. He had just 20 yards on six carries. Dedrick Mills gained 28 yards on nine attempts. Wan'Dale Robinson, a shifty and versatile freshman whom P.J. Fleck compared to Rondale Moore, had 24 yards on six carries before leaving the game with an injury. Nebraska's only threat on the ground was the scrambling backup quarterback Noah Vedral, who ran for 71 yards on 12 carries. Minnesota kept all of the Huskers under control.

Without starting quarterback Adrian Martinez, Nebraska did not offer as much of a threat in the passing game. Washington, Mills, and Robinson needed to step up, but they repeatedly ran into a swarm of Gophers.

When one player missed a tackle or couldn't make a tackle immediately, he usually had support.

The past two games, the Gophers have conceded short runs without causing many losses, but they've made sure the big run does not hurt them. It's how they kept Jonathan Taylor from beating them in Madison last year, and it's how they've kept Corbin and Washington from beating them again this year. That recipe might serve them well again before the season is over.

3. The Gophers contained J.D. Spielman and the Huskers' passing game.

Vedral clearly was made uncomfortable all night. He repeatedly had defenders in his face, which undid any progress the Huskers made. Take this sequence in the third quarter.

It looked like the Gophers were in Cover 4: The safeties and corners handled the deep part of the field, and the linebackers and nickelback Chris Williamson covered the underneath zones. Spielman ran a crossing route that took him past Minnesota's weakest man in coverage, Thomas Barber, while Williamson worried about the running back going into the flat. Spielman found an empty space beyond the line to gain, and his speed and agility turned it into a 51-yard play.

That was as far as Nebraska would advance on this drive. On the next play, Barber and Williamson blitzed, combining for the sack.

Carter Coughlin then made his second sack of the season on a four-man rush. An incompletion on 3rd down forced a punt.

The Gophers finished the game with four sacks, their most since the Week 2 win over Fresno State. There were also plays like this, where Tai'yon Devers hurried Vedral into overthrowing his receiver:

Vedral's bad day wasn't just because of the pass rush. He also averaged a terrible 9.6 yards per completion. The pursuit and tackling ability the Gophers showed in stopping the run helped kill short passes, like this screen:

Spielman's 51-yard catch was one of the rare moments that Minnesota's defense failed. Nebraska struggled to move the ball, punting six times and not scoring until the early fourth quarter. Maybe Martinez and a full 60 minutes of Robinson would have made a difference, but the Cornhuskers might have been too ineffective Saturday night for those two to have made this a winnable game. Minnesota negated any threat Nebraska posed.

4. Sam Renner was the most disruptive player on the field.

The biggest contributor to the Gophers' success up front was Renner. Renner was in the backfield constantly, pressuring the quarterback on nearly 21 percent of his pass rushes, according to Pro Football Focus. (He made PFF's Big Ten team of the week.) Here he is bull rushing the left guard into Vedral's feet:

Micah Dew-Treadway deserves recognition for this deflection, too.

Here he is spinning away from the right guard and hitting Vedral just before the throw:

And here he is finally getting a sack as Vedral tried to leave the pocket:

Through half a season, Renner leads the Gophers in tackles for loss, and his three pass breakups give him the lead in havoc plays.

A havoc play is a tackle for loss (including sacks), interception, pass breakup, or forced fumble.

Defensive tackle looked like it would be one of the weakest spots on the team, but the former walk-on has been a disruptive presence at the 3-technique.

5. Fleck and Ciarrocca totally mismanaged the end of the first half.

Midway through the second quarter, a good punt by Isaac Armstrong put the Gophers at their own 8-yard line. To give themselves some space, they ran on 1st down. After Smith only reached the line of scrimmage, it made more sense to pass than run. Instead, Ciarrocca stayed with the run on 2nd down, and Smith gained 1 yard. On 3rd-and-9, it made even more sense to pass. Ciarrocca called another run, with Ibrahim taking the ball. Ibrahim picked up 11 yards and kept the drive moving.

Ibrahim ran again on 1st down and gained 2 yards, setting up another 2nd-and-long. Instead of passing, the Gophers ran again. Brooks gained 13 yards before getting 28 on the next play.

With a new set of downs, Morgan threw an incompletion to Rashod Bateman, which meant the third 2nd-and-long of the drive. Smith ran for 1 yard. On another 3rd-and-9, Ibrahim ran the ball, but this time, he was well short of the line to gain.

On 4th-and-8 from Nebraska's 35-yard line, going into the wind, Minnesota was too far away to try a field goal. The best punt could only net the Gophers 34 yards of field position, and when the line of scrimmage is that close to the end zone, touchbacks are hard to avoid. Attempting a 4th-down conversion was the smart move.

After Nebraska took a timeout, Morgan and the offense came back onto the field. It looked like Fleck had picked the smart move.

It looked like it, at least.

The Ferentz Special.

Instead of running a play, Minnesota tried to draw Nebraska's defenders offisde, which would make either 4th down or a field goal attempt more manageable if it worked. It didn't work because that strategy seldom does. Scott Frost declined the delay of game penalty, and after Tyler Nubin interfered with J.D. Spielman's attempt to field the punt, the Huskers started their drive at their own 30. Plus, they had almost 2 minutes to go put together a scoring drive.

Fortunately, Nebraska went three-and-out. Another good punt and another special teams foul by Nubin gave Minnesota the ball at their own 8. Fleck evidently did not think he could score before halftime, but the two timeouts Frost still had meant the Gophers had to get a 1st down.

Smith ran for 4 yards to start the drive. (He fumbled, but Sam Schlueter recovered the ball.) On both 2nd-and-6 and 3rd-and-6, Ciarrocca called runs again. Again, however, a good result bailed out bad process: Smith ran for 23 yards.

The Gophers, despite their coaches' best efforts, found themselves with good field position with 33 seconds left. Seemingly recognizing this fact, Fleck took his last timeout of the half. But during the timeout, he must have changed his mind about trying to score. But instead of taking a knee, Minnesota ran the ball again. Shockingly, Ibrahim did not score a touchdown or put the Gophers in field goal range, and the half was over.

Fleck could have tried to put his team ahead by three scores going into halftime, but he gave his opponent a chance to make it a one-score game. Then, rather than risk stopping the clock with an incompletion, Minnesota refused to pass when a 1st down would preserve their lead. When suddenly presented with another chance to score again, Fleck risked injury to his players by not trying to score but only halfway giving up on the drive. All the while, Ciarrocca was happy to run in situations that demanded a pass.

This sequence of possessions was an exhibition of conservative strategy that easily could have cost the Gophers. That cannot repeat itself in the future, especially against better opponents. Not trying to win is a really good way to lose.

6. Minnesota's field position advantage in the third quarter helped put away the game.

Demetrius Douglas opened the second half with a kick return to Minnesota's 37-yard line. A 45-yard pass to Tyler Johnson put the Gophers in the red zone 21 seconds into the half, and four runs put them in the end zone. Already, Minnesota was up three touchdowns. Douglas' return was not as important to extending that lead as Johnson's big play, but it was important.

Down 21 points, sitting in no man's land between the 40s, and facing a 4th-and-3, Frost was right to go for it. Converting and eventually scoring a touchdown would have brought the Huskers back into the game. Considering how poorly Nebraska's defense was playing, a conversion might have been not just beneficial, but necessary.

That said, I question running a fake through your 6-foot-8-inch tight end.

Austin Allen is normally one of the blockers on Nebraska's punt team, and it's not like he's useless with the ball in his hands, but he's not an ideal ballcarrier. Though he got close to the line to gain, he was short. The Gophers took over on downs with half a field in front of them.

Minnesota did not score immediately after the stop. In fact, they went three-and-out. But they immediately benefited from the resulting field position by putting the Huskers in a difficult spot. Jacob Herbers (aided by a J.D. Spielman muff) pinned them at the 2, and three plays later, Isaac Armstrong had to punt from the back of his own end zone.

The Gophers took over at the Nebraska 45, and their offense went to work. They moved incrementally rather than in chunks; their largest gain came on a 9-yard carry by Brooks. The nine-play drive drained more than 5 minutes off of the clock and extended the Gophers' lead by one more touchdown.

After another Nebraska three-and-out, Armstrong couldn't punt the Huskers off of their side of the field. Another big play to Johnson and another close-range touchdown run put the game fully out of reach.

On the last possession of the quarter, Kade Warner finally crossed midfield for Nebraska. His 5-yard reception didn't stop the clock, but the whistle blew with 49 seconds remaining in the quarter. That means that 13 minutes and 50 seconds passed between the ball entering Nebraska territory on Johnson's first 45-yard catch and it finally entering Minnesota territory again. (This excludes setting the ball on the kicking tee for Grant Ryerse three times.) Minnesota's average starting field position during that time was midfield. Nebraska's was their own 18-yard line.

By winning field position, the Gophers made sure they won the game.

7. This space is reserved for absurd touchdowns by Gopher receivers.

Minnesota threw so little that the only touchdown catch was on a tunnel screen to Chris Autman-Bell. Therefore, there is no entry for this space this week. Hopefully, there is one next week; otherwise, I'd have to use this screenshot from Arrested Development again.

In the interest of giving Autman-Bell some recognition, here is his aforementioned touchdown. Let the record show, however, that it was not absurd.

8. Tyler Johnson: still great.

Bateman had a quiet night, which meant it was Johnson's turn to make big plays. He caught all five of the passes thrown to him, two of which turned into 45-yard gains off of play-action. The first was an exhibition of Johnson's elusiveness, and the second was a straightforward go route.

There was a 7-yard slant, of course, as well as the return of the fly sweep that has shown up in previous games:

Johnson is third in the Big Ten in receptions, fifth in yards, and tied for the lead in touchdowns. He's on pace for a second consecutive first-team all-conference selection. Even if he does not break Ron Johnson's touchdowns record or Eric Decker's yardage record, Tyler Johnson has cemented himself as one of the best receivers in program history. The only question is where he'll be drafted next spring.

9. Play-action remains one of Minnesota's best weapons — when it all comes together.

Last season, Minnesota tight ends got some work in the passing game on delayed seam routes. This route by Jake Paulson was not delayed; Nebraska's linebackers, biting on Morgan's fake, just left the tight end totally alone. In the stadium, it looked like, with the whole secondary covering the three receivers to the right, Paulson had space to score if he caught this pass. He didn't, and the Gophers' drive ended in a three-and-out. But the play shows how Minnesota has usually taken advantage of opponents' aggressiveness with play-action.

10. Just how good is this team?

According to a literal reading of the polls, Minnesota is one of the 25 best teams in FBS. But we all know you cannot use a literal reading. The pollsters care more about teams that win than teams that are good. Though teams that win and teams that are good are often the same teams, they are not always.

Take Iowa in 2015: At the end of the regular season, the undefeated Hawkeyes were No. 4 in the AP Poll and No. 3 in the Coaches Poll. In the Massey Composite, however, Iowa was No. 7, with an average rank of 9.13. What's telling is the standard deviation of rank: 7.90 spots, the largest standard deviation in the top 16. In other words, there was more disagreement among ranking systems on Iowa's actually quality than there was on the quality of any other team in the top 16.

A lot of the systems lower on Iowa were stats-based, lessening or ignoring wins and losses in favor of overall performance. Sagarin had them 14th. The Fremeau Efficiency Index had them 18th. The Football Power Index had them 26th. The computers did not all like an undefeated Power Five division champion the way the polls did. Iowa was a good team, for sure, but with their level of quality, they did not deserve to be considered national title contenders.

How do the computers feel about Minnesota, then? They still don't fully trust the Gophers after their unimpressive non-conference performance, but rankings systems see a respectable team that has improved.

Taking these rankings into account, this is how I see the Gophers: They're probably one of the 30 best teams in the country, and they're good enough to upset one or two of the difficult opponents they play in November. They've also shown flaws in every game they've played — in gap containment, in ball security, in playcalling and on the offensive line, in tackling, in quarterback play, and in game management.

But for every time Minnesota has shown those flaws, there have been times that those flaws have not existed. The run defense has improved dramatically, both in pursuit and in tackling. The Gophers have fumbled twice in three games since the bye week. Ciarrocca may run the ball too much, but he knows how to use his playmakers in the passing game. The offensive line has been excellent in conference play. Morgan has had occasional lapses but generally performed very well. Fleck went for it on 4th-and-1 in his own territory against Georgia Southern, so he is capable of being aggressive.

The Gophers have corrected their course and are going in the right direction. If they stay on this course and stay healthy, they could find themselves in a good place.

Next Game

There are too many lows in this era of Rutgers football for Saturday's loss to Indiana to be the program's nadir, but for many schools, a day on which your offense threw for 1 yard would be in the running.

This is a dreadful offense down to its third quarterback after sophomore Artur Sitowski decided to redshirt and Texas Tech transfer McLane Carter walked away from football because of injuries. Redshirt freshman Johnny Langan has looked overwhelmed so far. The Scarlet Knights cannot ease his load by running the ball, as their rushing attack is among the Power Five's worst. Utility player Raheem Blackshear is also redshirting. I can identify nothing that this offense does well.

Rutgers' defense is a normal kind of bad instead of irredeemable kind of bad. Cornerback Damon Hayes has made four pass breakups this season, and his counterpart on the other side, Avery Young, broke up 10 as a true freshman last season. The secondary can look respectable on its best days.

The front seven, meanwhile, is abysmal. The Scarlet Knights have made 6.0 sacks all season. Opponents average 6.2 yards per carry. Linebackers Olakunle Fatukasi and Tyreek Maddox-Williams can be disruptive, but no two players can carry a whole unit. The Gophers' running backs should have a third straight monster day.

Minnesota could lose to Rutgers, certainly. Any underdog can theoretically leverage turnovers luck, big plays on special teams, a small number of possessions, and general wackiness into an upset. But Rutgers is too bad, and Minnesota is too good, for a loss to be anything other than a remote possibility. The Gophers' goal should be a quick demolition that gets the backups into the game as early as possible.