It wasn't a perfect day for the Gophers, but it was really good at points.
1. Minnesota dominated Purdue through the air.
In his Tuesday press conference last week, P.J. Fleck talked about an exercise he calls "self-scouting." Basically, his defensive assistants scout the offense, his offensive assistants scout the defense, and they share notes. It's a way for the coaches to get an idea of how opposing staffs view their respective sides of the ball, which should inspire tactical adjustment and improvement. Fleck doesn't assign this exercise frequently, but he decided this bye week was a good time for it.
I don't know what the defensive coaches told offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca. I wouldn't be surprised, however, if one of their key points was that the offense relied too heavily on the run in its first three games. The Gophers ran the ball on 60 percent of their snaps in non-conference play, but they only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Meanwhile, two of the Big Ten's best receivers were at their disposal. Predictability and inefficiency held back the offense.
Whether it was a result of the self-scouting session or a strategy to attack the opponent's soft coverage, Minnesota reversed course against Purdue. The Gophers built their lead by throwing on 59 percent of their plays in the first half, and Tanner Morgan had the best game of his career.
Tanner Morgan was ON-POINT during Minnesota's win over Purdue. pic.twitter.com/MfJlB92ln9— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 29, 2019
(Depth of target is the number of yards downfield that the quarterback's intended target was on the throw. On a completion, it's the yards a receiver doesn't get after the catch.)
Of course, Morgan didn't have many hard throws. Ciarrocca relied heavily on slants and posts over the middle, which Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman have run effectively in the past.
The gameplan also included plenty of play-action and run-pass options. I counted eight such plays on the Gophers' 26 dropbacks Saturday. Minnesota averaged 30.1 yards per play on those eight plays.
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| (The average play-action rate in the Power Five is around 25 percent.) |
That included three biggest plays of the game: a 70-yard slant to Chris Autman-Bell off an RPO...
...a 45-yard slant to Bateman off an RPO...
...and a 47-yard sluggo to Bateman off of play-action.
When the defense moves to stop the run, but the run isn't coming, the offense often wins — even if the offense isn't running the ball well or frequently. Morgan and his receivers exploited that with a practically flawless performance.
We'll close this section with another few more highlights from the Gophers' air show.
Beautiful.
2. The Gophers probably didn't too quickly commit to running the ball after taking control.
After Bateman's second touchdown made Minnesota's lead 21 points, the Gophers ran on eight of their next 10 plays. Their run rate in the second half was more than 25 percentage points higher than it was in the first. On those 10 plays, Minnesota gained 20 yards. (This doesn't count the 5 yards lost to a delay of game before a punt.) How could Ciarrocca have moved on from what was working and give Purdue a chance to come back?
I understand questioning this change to an extent — a 28-point lead in the fourth quarter is safer than a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter is — but I'm not sure the logic holds up upon further consideration. The Gophers' defense forced a three-and-out just after Autman-Bell scored, which ESPN says pushed Minnesota's win probability to 98.9 percent. That doesn't take into account how much weaker Purdue was without some of their most important players. Something special needed to happen for the Boilermakers to win that game.
Those eight rushing attempts I mentioned gained 4.9 yards per carry, too. The Gophers' two punts wouldn't have happened if not for a pair of sacks on designed passes. It wasn't smart to hand Rodney Smith the ball on 3rd-and-21, but the general shift to running the ball was defensible.
When a Jacob Herbers punt pinned the Boilermakers on the 1-yard line in the fourth quarter, Purdue had 12 minutes to score a touchdown, recover an onside kick, score another touchdown, get the ball back again (most likely with another onside kick, but Jeff Brohm chose to trust his defense despite being given little reason to do so all afternoon), and then score another touchdown just to tie. If Brohm wanted to win in regulation instead (and he should want to), history suggests that a 2-point attempt is a 50-50 proposition at best. The odds of all of those things happening are minuscule.
Minnesota had done enough at that point to firmly control the game. The lead they built should be enough for any defense to safely protect, and it was.
Minnesota's defense does not get a pass, however.
3. Bad tackling kept Purdue's comeback hopes alive.
Easily the most disconcerting part of Saturday was how poorly the Gophers tackled. Repeatedly, a modest gain for Purdue turned into a sizable one, or a negative play turned into a positive one because a defender failed to make a tackle.
True freshman running back King Doerue more than tripled his season's rushing output despite the fact that his offensive line didn't help out very much. By yards per carry, it was Minnesota's worst performance against an opposing run game.
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| Find explanations for these stats here. |
The biggest reason is that the Gophers struggled at the most fundamental part of playing defense: tackling the ballcarrier. There are some tough running backs on the schedule. It is vital that this team get better at tackling.
4. The Gophers left spaces open for Purdue to attack, and the Boilermakers took advantage.
Tackling wasn't the defense's only problem. Purdue's touchdown in the second quarter shows how the Gophers' coverage failed. Running back Zander Horvath motioned into the flat, and he scored after Plummer threw him the ball on a swing route.
After the play, Antoine Winfield complained to his teammates because that touchdown should not have happened. The defense stood still while Horvath motioned into the flat, and if not for Winfield, he would have scored standing. I cannot tell who should have taken Horvath, but based on how open he was and Winfield's reaction, it wasn't supposed to be the safety.
Coverage didn't just fail because of miscommunication. On Purdue's next drive, the Brohm brothers called for a mesh, featuring two crossing routes over the middle and a receiver motioning across the formation. Coney Durr did well following and covering that receiver, but Durr following him told Plummer the Gophers were in man coverage. Mesh is made to attack man, creating confusion between defenders over the middle. Winfield had to evade Chris Williamson and Thomas Barber in chasing Jackson Anthrop, which left Anthrop open to make a first down catch.
Minnesota's defensive backs had problems sticking to their men all day. There were plenty of small gains, but then you had plays like this 37-yard post to David Bell. Kiondre Thomas was in coverage.
Thomas wasn't alone in his struggles; each member of the cornerback rotation — Thomas, Durr, Terell Smith, and Benjamin St. Juste — had bad moments against Purdue.
The problems continued in zone, too. Bell ran a dig perfectly into the space between the zones in Minnesota's Cover 2, and Plummer hit him in stride.
Then there was the run game. Most of Purdue's success on the ground was because of bad tackling rather than unintelligent play, but there were still occasional lapses.
Take this play from the end of the first quarter. I diagrammed the Gophers' gap assignments on this play as best I could and labeled each gap.
It looks like Jamaal Teague had a perfect opportunity to blow up the play, but Purdue's linemen left him unblocked for the H-back to handle.
Doerue's first step was right, which sucked Barber into the middle. However, this was a counter play, meaning that Doerue's path was outside to his left. Barber was not fast enough to catch up. Williamson was too far wide to fill the gap, and he couldn't get off of his blocker.
With a missed tackle by Smith to boot, Doerue picked up 15 yards.
Altogether, it was the most alarming defensive performance of the season.
With all of that said, however, there were positive moments. If that wasn't the case, Purdue would have averaged much more than 5.0 yards per play.
5. Minnesota defensive line partly made up for mistakes by wreaking havoc.
A havoc play is a pass breakup, interception, tackle for loss, or forced fumble. Havoc rate is the percentage of plays on which a defense made a havoc play. It doesn't tell a very complete story of how a defense disrupted their opponent's offense, but it does tell a broad one.
Last year, teams generated havoc plays on 16.1 percent of defensive snaps. The Gophers' havoc rate Saturday was 17.1 percent, which over a full season would have tied North Carolina for 45th-best in the country last year. That's an impressive day.
You can also divide havoc rate by unit. And the Gopher defensive line's havoc rate stands out even more at 7.9 percent. The national average for defensive lines last year was 5.0 percent; only six teams did better than 7.9 percent.
The Gophers posted such a high number by batting down passes at the line:
They did it by swarming Doerue in the backfield:
And they did it by beating a young offensive line and sacking Plummer:
They came close on other plays, too, forcing incompletions even when they couldn't force a loss:
It was hardly a perfect day for Minnesota's defensive linemen — the tackling problem was not exclusive to the linebackers and defensive backs — but they made big plays that slowed down Purdue's offense.
6. The Gophers have turned the linebacker position into a series of specialized pairings.
Linebacker depth looked like a problem for Minnesota entering 2019. It wasn't just because an injury could have forced someone onto the field who wasn't ready, but because starters Barber and Kamal Martin were entering their final seasons. Their impending graduations could have left a big hole in the 2020 defense.
If defensive coordinator and linebackers coach Joe Rossi wanted to avoid forcing inexperienced players into action next season, he needed to give them experience this season. Despite changing Minnesota's base defense to nickel, which theoretically would decrease the chances of a backup linebacker seeing the field, he has given his young players that experience.
Barber and Martin get the most playing time, obviously, but Braelen Oliver, Mariano Sori-Marin, and Thomas Rush each have seen significant snaps in situations playing to their strengths. When Martin missed the Georgia Southern game, Sori-Marin started instead to help stop the Eagles' option attack; his size makes him a classic gap-closing linebacker. On passing downs against Fresno State and Purdue, Oliver took the place of the slower Barber; he and Martin, who made two interceptions on Saturday, are the Gophers' most trusted coverage linebackers. Rush hasn't played as much, but as a former high school running back, he has the athleticism to fill in for Oliver if needed.
Rotating the linebackers both serves a tactical need and better prepares the Gophers' underclassmen to eventually start after the two seniors have moved on.
7. This space is reserved for absurd touchdowns by Gopher receivers.
Compared to past catches occupying this space, this one lacks some absurdity. But because it's still a good catch (and because I'm committing to making this a weekly feature), it deserves praise. Johnson did well to lose his man, snag a well-placed throw, and get both feet in bounds, putting Minnesota up 18 points at the end of the first half.
8. Rodney Smith had his best game of the season.
Minnesota's offensive line was not always effective against Purdue's front, but it did not always matter. Smith repeatedly made holes for himself or charged through defenders, setting a season high in rushing yards.
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| I mean, this modest 6-yard gain is all Rodney. |
He even threw in a 20-yard reception, gaining 16 of those yards after the catch.
To break Darrell Thompson's career rushing record at Minnesota (4,654 yards), Smith would need to break David Cobb's single-season rushing record (1,626 yards) and then some (by 69 yards). He's about a fifth of the way there after a third of the games in the regular season, so he probably won't catch Thompson. But Smith is still on track to take second place from Laurence Maroney if he stays healthy and maintains a respectable pace. It would be a fine accomplishment to cap the career of one of this decade's greatest Gophers.
9. The offense does not always hide its intentions well pre-snap.
The Gophers' star receivers cannot be on the field for every play. But when they aren't, the offense still needs to present a passing threat.
Green, Clay Geary, and Demetrius Douglas are the receivers in this formation, and Ko Kieft is the tight end. Douglas has been Morgan's fourth-favorite target in 2019. The others combined for four catches in 2018. With this personnel and on this part of the field, it's obvious that the Gophers are running.
As the Wildcat quarterback, Green has rushed seven times this season. Four of those rushes were stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage, and his rushing total is minus 1 yard. He only threw five passes (not including his 2-point conversion against Fresno State) a year ago, and he hasn't thrown once this year. Opposing defenses can tell what is coming when Green is behind the center.
On Saturday's first Wildcat snap, Purdue didn't load the box against the Wildcat like Georgia Southern did. But seeing two tight ends, Green in the backfield, and Morgan out wide on the field side, the Boilermakers didn't exactly spread themselves out.
A couple of plays later, Minnesota lined up in Wildcat again from the 2-yard line, this time without a wide receiver. Purdue responded by cramming 10 players onto the line of scrimmage.
Especially at the goal line, the Gophers make it clear what their plan is: try to plow into the end zone. The problem is, there are nine blockers (or eight, if Green runs read option) facing 10 defenders. A stronger defense than Purdue's might not concede a touchdown in this situation.
I will credit Ciarrocca for at least offering a new twist on this package, however. Snapping directly to Smith turns Green (who weighs 240 pounds) into a blocker. Green's block wasn't the best, but it prevented the cornerback from keeping Smith out of the end zone.
10. Purdue cannot catch a break.
Brohm on status of Sindelar and Moore: Sindealr has sugery at moment on broken clavicle. Moore is out. Neal out. Fuller out. Worship out.— Tom Dienhart (@TomDienhart1) September 30, 2019
Injuries have cursed the Boilermakers since last season, when powerful running back Richie Worship and gap-clogging defensive tackle Lorenzo Neal each tore an ACL. Neal and Worship have yet to appear this season, but they aren't alone on the injury list. Starting tailback Tario Fuller broke his jaw in the preseason. Starting linebacker Markus Bailey injured his knee in practice after the Vanderbilt game and is out for the year. Offensive lineman Matt McCann and receivers David Bell and Jared Sparks all missed the TCU game with injuries of their own. (Sparks missed the Minnesota game, too.)
But nothing could have been more demoralizing than the losses Purdue suffered against Minnesota. In one play, starting quarterback Elijah Sindelar — back in the lineup after a concussion paused what was looking like a good senior season — and All-American slot receiver Rondale Moore left the game with injuries. Offensive lineman D.J. Washington followed them to the locker room the following quarter.
2019 was unlikely to be a good season for Purdue. Injuries have all but guaranteed it won't be one.
Minnesota, in comparison, has been remarkably lucky with injuries. The injuries to Rodney Smith and Mohamed Ibrahim, as well as the pre-existing injury to Shannon Brooks (who returned Saturday), have hit arguably the team's deepest position and not affected the gameplan too much. Ibrahim missed one game and didn't receive a carry in another, and Smith has missed one half. Injuries at other positions have been few and often minor, removing players from action for just a few plays.
Gopher fans should be thankful that their team's 2019 hasn't looked like the Boilermakers'.
Next Game
Unless Northwestern's offense is really that bad, Illinois is the worst team in the Big Ten West. That was true last season, but dear reader, you surely haven't forgotten Minnesota's last encounter with Reggie Corbin and the Illinois rushing attack.
Corbin may have taken a step back this season, averaging "only" 7.1 yards per carry in his first three games. (He missed the trip to UConn.) Dre Brown is rushing for 6.1 yards per carry. Those two and Ra'Von Bonner have combined for seven touchdowns on the ground. That's tough to stop, which is part of how the Illini scored 55 on the Gophers last year.
The other part was that under Robb Smith, the Gophers had major problems preventing the kinds of explosive runs that the Illini specialized in creating. Rossi's appointment has lessened those problems, but his defense has shown weaknesses containing the outside and making tackles this season. One missed tackle is enough for Corbin to find an opening and burn the opposing defense. Against Illinois, Minnesota's defenders need to be sharper than they were against Purdue, or they'll suffer another calamity.
The Gophers will surely try to make Michigan transfer Brandon Peters beat them. Illinois' offense with Peters at quarterback ranks 99th in yards per pass attempt and 105th in sack rate. Whether the Gophers can force Peters to beat them (or even force offensive coordinator Rod Smith to pass) is uncertain.
When Minnesota has the ball, Ciarrocca's best course of action will be throwing it until the Illini show they can slow down Morgan, Johnson, and company in the quick pass game. The Illini are weak in the back but look ferocious up front. Led by defensive end Oluwole Betiku Jr. (10.5 tackles for loss, including 7.0 sacks), the Illinois defense has swallowed opposing running backs. This team will punish Morgan for taking too long in the pocket, so it's essential that the Gophers get more big plays out of their receivers after the catch.
The computers and Vegas each love Minnesota in this one: Massey gives the Gophers an 87 percent win probability, and the spread on Tuesday is 14 points. They weren't as optimistic last year, but Minnesota was still heavily favored. Perhaps Rossi and an improved passing game are enough to prove them right this time.
Corbin may have taken a step back this season, averaging "only" 7.1 yards per carry in his first three games. (He missed the trip to UConn.) Dre Brown is rushing for 6.1 yards per carry. Those two and Ra'Von Bonner have combined for seven touchdowns on the ground. That's tough to stop, which is part of how the Illini scored 55 on the Gophers last year.
The other part was that under Robb Smith, the Gophers had major problems preventing the kinds of explosive runs that the Illini specialized in creating. Rossi's appointment has lessened those problems, but his defense has shown weaknesses containing the outside and making tackles this season. One missed tackle is enough for Corbin to find an opening and burn the opposing defense. Against Illinois, Minnesota's defenders need to be sharper than they were against Purdue, or they'll suffer another calamity.
The Gophers will surely try to make Michigan transfer Brandon Peters beat them. Illinois' offense with Peters at quarterback ranks 99th in yards per pass attempt and 105th in sack rate. Whether the Gophers can force Peters to beat them (or even force offensive coordinator Rod Smith to pass) is uncertain.
When Minnesota has the ball, Ciarrocca's best course of action will be throwing it until the Illini show they can slow down Morgan, Johnson, and company in the quick pass game. The Illini are weak in the back but look ferocious up front. Led by defensive end Oluwole Betiku Jr. (10.5 tackles for loss, including 7.0 sacks), the Illinois defense has swallowed opposing running backs. This team will punish Morgan for taking too long in the pocket, so it's essential that the Gophers get more big plays out of their receivers after the catch.
The computers and Vegas each love Minnesota in this one: Massey gives the Gophers an 87 percent win probability, and the spread on Tuesday is 14 points. They weren't as optimistic last year, but Minnesota was still heavily favored. Perhaps Rossi and an improved passing game are enough to prove them right this time.
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