This was supposed to be the game that showed Minnesota was alright, and that confirmed the Gophers were better than their struggles would suggest. Instead, it heightened concerns that Minnesota could see those struggles continue (if not increase) once Big Ten play begins after the bye week.
Yes, the Gophers won, and yes, there were positives beyond the final result. But it was not remotely pretty. Though style points don't count toward bowl eligibility, and P.J. Fleck's final record at Minnesota will include no asterisk for winning his first three games of 2019 by a combined 13 points, the way those wins have happened must inspire concern.
We're going full-on listicle for this week's post. Here are (some of) the five reasons Minnesota almost lost, as well as (some of) the five reasons Minnesota didn't lose.
Why Minnesota Almost Lost
1. Minnesota's offensive line was inadequate both in the run game and in pass protection.
2. Offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca's playcalling became predictable.
Early in the game, the inside zone runs that are the foundation of Minnesota's offense worked. The Gophers' offensive line generated holes against a smaller Eagles front, even with seven men in the box. Rodney Smith, Bryce Williams, and Cam Wiley found holes and picked up yards.
However, after a while, Southern adjusted. Trying to slow down the Gopher rushing attack, the Eagles started cramming the box and having their safeties come down a few yards. Linebackers and safeties, knowing a run was coming, filled gaps without considering play-action.
They especially knew not to expect a pass when Seth Green came onto the field as the Wildcat quarterback. Green scored a touchdown in the second quarter, but on his next three carries, he lost 6 yards. Southern crammed the line when Green came onto the field, taking advantage of their greater numbers.
Additionally, towards the end of each half, the Minnesota O-line stopped generating as much space, because of both mental errors and simply losing matchups. On this play, left guard Blaise Andries realized too late that the linebacker (No. 36) over the B-gap was his to block.
Here, there were a handful of problems. Right guard Curtis Dunlap, blocking down, whiffed on the defensive end. Right tackle Daniel Faalele stepped back to help once he saw the end get past him. Williams broke the end's tackle, but the backside linebacker was in the backfield, too. He was there either because Tanner Morgan made the wrong read by handing off the ball or (if this was a designed run, which I think it was) because tight end Jake Paulson missed him.
Ciarrocca didn't adjust. Whether out of an absence of creativity, a premature belief that Minnesota could kill the rest of the clock with a one-possession lead, or a lack of faith in the passing game, he stayed on the ground. It went poorly.
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| All references to rushing statistics in this post exclude sacks. |
Saturday was, by yards per carry, Minnesota's worst day rushing since the 31-0 loss to Wisconsin in 2017. (For context on the stats below, I've included last year's national averages.)
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| Averages via Bill Connelly, who included them in his advanced box scores, which you can find in the schedule sections of every team page through this link. You can find explanations for each stat in the advanced box scores or through this link. |
The O-line often failed to protect Tanner Morgan as well, allowing a season-high five sacks. I'll address the fourth-quarter strip-sack shortly, but for now, here are the other four.
Note: The original post said that Southern's defense had the second-worst (i.e., lowest) sack rate in FBS last season. This is incorrect: Their offense had the second-worst (i.e., highest). The defense's sack rate was 66th.
Reynard Ellis (No. 36) is normally a linebacker, but he lined up at nose tackle for this play. His first step was backwards, as if he was going to drop into coverage. When he instead rushed, he beat Conner Olson with a rip move, and Dunlap wasn't there to help. Morgan tried to break from the pocket despite possibly having room to step up if he moved quickly. As Schlueter was losing a battle with Quin Williams, Andries came to assist and inadvertently pushed Williams directly into Morgan's path.
On the second sack, defensive end Raymond Johnson III (No. 92) beat Schlueter inside (a cardinal sin for an offensive lineman). Johnson then ran into Olson (playing left guard because of an injury to Andries), who fell down. Johnson couldn't sack Morgan, but Williams, coming all the way from the opposite defensive end position, did.
Olson (back at center) was just totally beaten by this spin move by Rashad Byrd (No. 45). Williams picked up Byrd, but Morgan left the pocket, and a couple of Eagles finished the job.
Ellis beat Faalele on the below play with a simple speed rush. The rest of the line looked like it was doing its job, and Williams picked up a rusher, but the play never developed because Faalele lost his one-on-one immediately.
The improvement of the offensive line is one of the things that saved Minnesota's season in 2018. But it can clearly still improve, and the playcaller could do it some favors.
3. Two first-half turnovers gave the Eagles a short field, and they capitalized.
Morgan's first throw of the game was a bad decision. He saw Tyler Johnson get past his defender, but that defender kept up pretty well and kept inside leverage, and the route took Johnson directly to the safety. With two defenders in the area of the pass, Morgan barely avoided throwing an interception.
Morgan's second throw of the game was also a bad decision. Rashod Bateman ran a short post and got inside the Southern corner, but safety Kenderick Duncan read the play perfectly — if not by following Morgan's eyes, perhaps by recalling from film Bateman's first reception against Fresno State — and jumped the route. With two defenders in the area of the pass, Morgan threw an interception.
Southern took the lead with a 21-yard touchdown on the next play.
Late in the first half, before the offensive line had clearly become a problem, Minnesota failed to convert a 3rd-and-1 run.
Fleck decided to go for it on 4th-and-1, reasonably expecting that his line could get that yard if given another chance. It didn't.
A 12-yard Justin Tomlin touchdown run on the ensuing drive trimmed the Gophers' lead to 1 point.
Fleck said after the game that if given the chance again, he might take a timeout to consider the decision, but he would go for it again. Though those may seem like contradicting thoughts, Fleck's aggressive call was an encouraging divergence from his typically conservative 4th down decision-making.
Regardless of the thinking behind the decision (or whether Tomlin fumbled the ball out of the end zone, as the broadcast suggested he might have), failing to convert had a major impact on the game. Had the Gophers kept the ball and scored, they would have opened the second half with a two-possession lead — and the ball. That would have been a very different situation.
4. Southern's special teams and defense each scored a touchdown.
Southern blocked a field goal by overloading (from the defense's perspective) the right side of the line. The Eagles positioned just three players to the left of long snapper Brady Weeks:
The idea of attacking kicks like this is that with so many rushers to worry about, the blockers will let someone through. Though it invites fakes targeting the unloaded side, the strategy is common. Blocking a kick requires just one gap to open, so teams try to maximize a few gaps' odds of opening.
For the offensive line, as in pass blocking, the priority is protecting the interior: The most direct route to the kick is through the middle. If the line cuts off the most direct route, then it's harder for the defense to block the kick.
Olson, directly next to Weeks on the overloaded side, braced for the rush from the rusher lined up on his outside shoulder. A moment later, he realized his mistake. He saw Ellis coming through the A-gap, but his weight was on his left leg, allowing Ellis to push through Olson's right leg. This is a problem because blockers' first step on field goal attempts is inside so that their legs overlap, tightening gaps. Ellis broke through and blocked the kick.
Monquavion Brinson, who returns kickoffs for the Eagles, picked up the ball, swerved from one sideline to the other, and ran 77 yards for a touchdown.
Olson also deserves some blame for the strip-sack that led to a touchdown. Byrd timed a blitz through the A-gap perfectly, and Olson let him go with hardly a touch. Williams, in pass protection, completely missed Byrd, who leveled Morgan. When Williams failed to grab the ball out of the air, it fell right into Byrd's path, and he ran it 36 yards (44 officially) for a go-ahead touchdown.
Though each play was the direct result of inadequate performance, neither should be a cause for large-scale or long-term concern without added context. Continued poor pass protection increases the odds of a strip-sack, and failing to block a rusher on a field goal attempt increases the odds that that attempt is blocked. Blocking in both areas needs to improve.
But fumble recoveries are not skill-based, and returns of fumbles and blocked field goals for touchdowns are rare, random occurrences. With a couple of fluky plays, Southern turned an 8-point deficit into a 4-point lead.
5. Injuries kept some of Minnesota's regulars off the field.
There was no announcement before Saturday, but Mohamed Ibrahim and Kamal Martin missed the game with injuries. Smith and Wiley's days each ended prematurely. Thomas Barber missed stretches of the game.
With their top two running backs, the Gophers' offense might have better justified Ciarrocca's commitment to the run. And though Mariano Sori-Marin did well in Martin's place, with one of their starting linebackers, the Gophers might not have had early problems against the Eagles' run game. Maybe better health could have improved how the game went for Minnesota.
Why Minnesota Didn't Lose
6. After initial struggles, Minnesota's defense settled in and contained Southern's offense.
The Eagles did not have a great first half offensively. Three of their drives combined for 10 yards, two punts, and a fumble lost. But their other four possessions all resulted in scores. Minnesota allowed a handful of chunk plays, including this 21-yard touchdown by Logan Wright:
On a rare pass play, Khaleb Hood beat Antoine Winfield on a post. With the Gophers in Cover 0, there was no deep help, and the Eagles picked up 39 yards.
Southern's last two drives averaged 6.8 yards per play and produced 10 points, most of them coming from the following Tomlin touchdown. Coughlin missed Tomlin in the backfield, and Sori-Marin wasn't fast enough to chase him down after being cut blocked. Meanwhile, Justus Harris stayed on the pitch man (which he should have), taking him out of the play. Tomlin beat Kiondre Thomas and Winfield to the pylon and scored.
In the second half, however, the Eagles didn't see much of the ball, and when they did, they didn't do anything with it. On four drives, Southern totaled just 7 yards, averaging barely more than half a yard per play. The defensive line got more penetration.
Sori-Marin, built far more for run support than pass coverage, filled gaps well, finishing with 4.5 tackles (3 solo) and half a tackle for loss.
Coughlin forced a fumble, and Barber led a swarm of Gophers to fall on it.
Southern scored 12 second-half points, but the offense had no role whatsoever in that. The Gophers got a big performance out of their defense in a game where it was needed.
7. This space is reserved for absurd touchdowns by Gopher receivers.
Are goal line fades good ideas? In most circumstances, they are decidedly not. But with the clock running down, no timeouts available, and one of the country's best and most acrobatic receivers in a one-on-one on the outside, calling a fade is a little more defensible. Johnson certainly justified the call here, making a fantastic catch despite having Brinson's arms wrapped around his torso.
8. Johnson had his first big game of 2019.
In one day, the Gophers' best receiver more than doubled his season totals in receptions and yards and became the team's leader in touchdowns. On 12 targets, he made 10 catches for 140 yards, with 73 of those yards coming on his first catch.
His second touchdown was not a comparable highlight, but it was still notable for the air he got in making the catch.
All day, Johnson abused Southern's secondary, often lining up in the slot against linebacker-safety-hybrid Jay Bowdry instead of against one of the Eagles' star cornerbacks. His speed let him dart past defenders, and his route running ability took him into open spaces.
And his leaping ability put him in position to make difficult catches even when double-covered.
If he stays healthy, and if the rest of the season shows that the drops are behind him, Johnson will have made himself as good as a receiver can be at this level.
9. Despite some hiccups, the Gophers did what they needed to do on their final drive.
As it got the ball back down 4 points, with 3:47 remaining and no timeouts, Minnesota's offense had limited room for error. I suppose to make things more interesting, the Gophers then used up basically all of that room on the first three snaps of the possession. Morgan threw an incompletion to Bateman and another to Johnson, but a holding call against Olson moved the Gophers back 10 yards to negate the second throw. Then, Faalele allowed a sack. Minnesota faced 3rd-and 29, sitting 94 yards from the end zone.
The line did its job against a five-man rush on 3rd down, and Morgan threw the ball to an open Demetrius Douglas over the middle. Douglas picked up another 12 yards after the catch by evading three Southern defenders before two others brought him down.
Those extra yards were vital, setting up a manageable 4th-and-8. Converting it was a lot easier than setting it up. Before the snap, Southern left open the middle of the field. Douglas ran a curl into the opening and made an entirely uncontested catch before Brinson tackled him beyond the line to gain.
The next play didn't count after Faalele was flagged for holding, and then a Morgan scramble and a Brinson holding penalty made it 2nd-and-5. Still trying to keep everything in front of them, the Eagles let Johnson and Bateman each make catches, pick up 1st downs, and get out of bounds to stop the clock.
After a Southern timeout, Morgan scrambled left and threw a perfectly placed pass to Douglas on the sideline. The officials initially called it an incompletion, and replay confirmed it, but I cannot be convinced that this play could have been confirmed.
Regardless: The Gophers kept moving. Bateman had an unbelievable amount of space on the following play, and he made Duncan miss a tackle on a 25-yard gain. ("Unbelievable" is not hyperbole. I honestly cannot believe that Southern left the second-most dangerous receiver on the field so open, even after the cornerback followed Douglas inside.)
After an incompletion, with his protection once again failing, Morgan found his best playmaker on a whip route. Johnson went down at the 1-yard line, setting up first down.
A Southern timeout and a penalty saved the Gophers a down and got them half a yard closer to the goal line. Morgan could have given Minnesota the lead himself if he hadn't handed Williams the ball on 1st-and-goal:
Instead, it was 2nd down from the 2-yard line. The Gophers hurried to the line, snapped the ball, and ran a play they had scripted during the timeout. But you already know what happened.
Minnesota's passing attack, abandoned for long stretches of every game this season, including this game, became the team's savoir, taking the Gophers 75 yards on 13 plays and leaving Southern just 13 seconds to either equalize or take the lead. The Eagles' offense, specialized in incrementalism, never had a chance.
10. The Eagles made a number of costly errors.
In Week 2 against Maine, center Jakob Cooper put three snaps over Tomlin's head. Saturday, he could hardly keep the ball off the ground. Low snaps were a problem all game. I've only included three of them here, but there were many more.
A low snap disrupts the offense's timing, but it doesn't hurt much unless the quarterback can't catch it. Then, the offense goes backwards.
The above fumble set up 2nd-and-17. Matt LaRoche lost another 5 yards, and then a pass attempt didn't come close to converting on 3rd-and-22. Southern punted. (Cooper's second and third snaps of the drive didn't hit the ground, but they were also low.)
That wasn't the only way the Eagles got in their own way in this game. They lost two fumbles in their own red zone, and they incurred 10 penalties. Two penalties came on Minnesota's game-winning drive. The first, a holding call, turned 2nd-and-15 into 2nd-and-5; the second only advanced the ball a few inches, but the way it happened infuriated head coach Chad Lunsford.
With a 1st-and-goal looming, Minnesota rushed to the line to spike the ball. Morgan was even under center for the occasion, which the Gophers never do even on quarterback runs. That should have made it obvious that the next play's purpose was just to stop the clock. It did not matter that the Eagles weren't lining up quickly enough; as long as they were onside, there would be no harm. Lunsford called a timeout — his last of the game — anyway. It was an astonishing misstep.
Still: Maybe the timeout allowed the defense to regroup for a goal-line stand.
It did not. Coming out of the timeout, Southern fielded 12 players.
It was the Eagles' second too-many-men penalty of the game. Even worse: The first happened at the start of the fourth quarter. Southern put too many players on the field twice, and both times were after stoppages in play.
A Southern coach was penalized this game, too. During Brinson's return of the blocked field goal, an assistant blocked the way of the head linesman as he ran down the sideline.
Without the 15-yard penalty that followed, maybe the Eagles would have been close enough to convert their 2-point attempt. A conversion would have tied the game.
Lunsford and his staff made tactical errors as well. I don't know why he didn't go for 2 to tie the game going into halftime, for instance. And defensive coordinator Scott Sloan's strategy to play prevent on the Gophers' final drive, even on 4th down, let the Gophers' receivers find space underneath and pick up five 1st downs in eight plays. Southern had successfully applied pressure to Morgan all afternoon with uncharacteristic aggressiveness and successful pass rushing, and Sloan switched to soft coverage.
In the fourth quarter, the Eagles repeatedly took themselves out of positions to win in spite of their big plays. It was the boost the Gophers needed to escape with their third victory of the season.
Next Game
Minnesota is off for the week and then begins conference play with Purdue, whom the Gophers beat 41-10 on a snowy November afternoon last season. This season, the Boilermakers are 1-2 at the end of their own difficult non-conference schedule, having lost at Nevada and at home against TCU, and beaten Vanderbilt with a big fourth quarter.
Missing some of their most important players against the Horned Frogs, the Boilermakers were listless. If some of those players — including quarterback Elijah Sindelar and linebacker Marcus Bailey — recover from their injuries during the bye week, this team is a threat.
Purdue's young offensive line has been a major problem this season, and that may slow down Jeff Brohm's typically potent offense even with a healthy lineup. Unless Brohm scales back Purdue's deep passing game, the Gophers' front four could have a bigger game than they have had so far this year. Whether the linebackers and secondary can contain Sindelar and star receiver Rondale Moore is the biggest concern.
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