Though there were some minor hiccups in the first half, it was clear from the beginning who the better team was. The only question was whether that team would come away unscathed. The answer wasn't what the Gophers wanted, but they don't have many injuries, and they're still winning. At 7-0 and up to No. 17 in the AP Poll, the Gophers could be on track for the program's best season this century, if not in several decades.
1. Minnesota devoured the Rutgers offense.
Behold: the futility of Rutgers:
From the beginning, this team had no chance.
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| Rutgers' kneeldown to end the half is excluded. |
The Scarlet Knights' offense is one of the nation's worst, and the Gophers made it look that way. Johnny Langan was 9-for-19 for 48 yards (2.5 per attempt) and three interceptions, and he was sacked twice. His team's 4.2 yards per carry looks okay until you exclude Rutgers' last two drives, which both happened well into garbage time, against backups. Take those possessions out, and the Scarlet Knights ran for 2.6 yards per attempt.
For the third straight game, the Gophers filled gaps and tackled well, preventing big plays. Outside of Elijah Barnwell's 40-yard run in the fourth quarter, the two largest gains Minnesota allowed were each for 12 yards. Rutgers' offensive line created few holes.
Langan, meanwhile, was very much the same quarterback that threw for 1 yard against Indiana. He was harassed all afternoon, but he was also inaccurate with a clean pocket.
The Gophers still had to play well enough to win, but "well enough" was a much lower bar to clear than it usually is. Rutgers is the worst opponent on Minnesota's schedule. The talent disparity was just too great for the Scarlet Knights to pose any threat.
2. Antoine Winfield Jr. keeps making interceptions.
These were two terrible throws Langan made under pressure, but Winfield had to dive to catch the former and returned the latter for a touchdown.
Winfield's four interceptions make up nearly half the team's total of nine, and only one of this teammates has more than one pick. He is second on the team in total passes defensed and in total tackles. He is the defense's star playmaker.
3. Minnesota's leading tackler may not miss much time.
In the third quarter, the Gophers got a scare when linebacker Kamal Martin left the game with what looked like a non-contact injury to his knee. (P.J. Fleck, in typically cagey fashion, called it a "lower leg injury.") After the game, he was on crutches. Fortunately, it looks like the worst was avoided.
Kamal Martin update.#Gophers head coach PJ Fleck on @KFAN1003 said Minnesota got "some good news".— Ryan Burns (@RyanBurnsMN) October 21, 2019
He called Kamal a "game-time" decision for Maryland.
As Burns points out, with Fleck, a "game-time" decision is not always as minor as the phrase would suggest. Martin very well might miss the game against Maryland, and we can only guess how likely he is to play against Penn State. But it looks like the Gophers have continued to avoid major injuries since Zack Annexstad's August foot injury.
4. The Gophers took a conservative approach on offense, but they tried some new things.
It was clear that offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca did not want to take any risks in this game. Outside of the second quarter, the Gophers ran the ball on any down.
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| A passing down is 2nd-and-8 or longer, 3rd-and-5 or longer, or 4th-and-5 or longer. Minnesota's missed field goal attempt is excluded. |
Rutgers' greatest weakness defensively was stopping the run, so with the additional goal of getting a quick and uneventful win, it made sense to stay on the ground. The issue was that this strategy drew extra defenders to the line of scrimmage, giving Rutgers a numbers advantage in the box.
Consequently, it wasn't Minnesota's best day running the ball. It was a fine day, but with more defenders to evade, the running backs couldn't break as many big runs.
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| You can find explanations of each stat here. |
It was a day full of inside and outside zone, Minnesota's favorite ways to run the ball. But Ciarrocca also introduced some new wrinkles into the offense. For example, in the second quarter, Shannon Brooks took the ball on a Counter run:
Though Counter is a staple of rushing attacks at every level, it seldom shows up in this offense. Adding this different flavor of running the ball, especially one built on misdirection, is a way to keep opposing defenses off-balance.
Ciarrocca also offered a couple of changes to the passing game. Take this Mesh-Wheel combination, an Air Raid signature, with Rodney Smith going deep:
The wheel didn't work, however, as linebacker Elorm Lumor matched Smith step-for-step in man coverage. If Lumor was slower, or if the man covering Smith got caught in the traffic in the middle, then it probably would have been open.
We also saw a familiar concept in a different situation and repurposed for a new formation. This play-action pass to Brevyn Spann-Ford was very similar to that thrown to Spann-Ford against Illinois:
Last October, the Gophers' tight ends started getting more involved in the passing game, like on this seam route by Bryce Witham off of play-action:
However, Minnesota tight ends finished the year with 10 total targets. Spann-Ford and Jake Paulson have seven targets through seven games this year, and the only incompletion was Paulson's wide-open drop against Nebraska. It might serve the Gophers well to get them the ball more often, especially off of play-action.
Though Ciarrocca did not put too many new things on tape against Rutgers, some of his playcalls might foreshadow some changes to Minnesota's scheme going forward.
5. Late in the second quarter, Tanner Morgan looked as bad as he has all season.
In the red zone, Morgan made some ugly throws. These two were were to wide-open receivers.
On 3rd down, Morgan hit Rashod Bateman for a touchdown on the exact same play they ran on 2nd down. When they ran it again later, however, Morgan missed him.
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| Side note: Is giving your quarterback two options (the receivers running fades) smart play design? |
This one is more forgivable, since it looks like Morgan was aiming for where Bateman went before, but the defensive back kept Bateman from going there by regaining inside leverage.
Morgan's bad moments weren't all because of misplaced throws. Some were because of bad decision-making. Let's go back to that incompletion on Smith's wheel route.
Lumor's tight coverage sure this was not a viable throw. But the mesh underneath was working perfectly, with Tyler Johnson coming open on the other side of the pick in the middle of the field.
The thing is, that wasn't the first time Ciarrocca called that mesh-wheel combination. Just a few minutes prior, on their previous drive, the Gophers ran the same play, just flipped because it was from the opposite hash. No defender touched Johnson until he was 11 yards downfield, and he turned it into a 36-yard gain.
Morgan's first read on this play was the wheel. Here, when the wheel was covered, he moved to his second read and found an open receiver over the middle. The other time Minnesota ran it, when the wheel was covered, he never moved to his second read, and he forced a throw that was never going to find the target.
Morgan stuck to his first read on this throw to Johnson as well. His eyes were locked on Johnson the whole way, which drew the safety over, making the probability of a completion slim to none — even for an All-Big Ten receiver with a crazy vertical.
If Morgan had not stared down his receiver, maybe the fade would have been open. Alternatively, he could have looked over the middle to Rashod Bateman when Johnson was double-covered. Either way, Morgan made a mistake on this throw. He finished the first half 10-for-22 for 130 yards.
6. Minnesota's offense put its foot on the gas after halftime.
Ciarrocca stuck to a run-first approach in the second half, but the execution was at a higher level.
Smith and Mohamed Ibrahim led the charge, combining for 84 yards on 15 carries and two touchdowns. After an unremarkable first half, Ibrahim more than tripled his own rushing output for the game, finishing with 62 yards.
Additionally, Morgan stepped up. He was 5-for-6 for 115 yards, making difficult throws like on this Bateman slant:
He and the starters exited the game after a 56-yard touchdown pass to Johnson.
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| Was this necessary? No. Will how unnecessary it was show up in the stats when writers assemble All-America teams? Also no. |
The last 30 minutes turned a secure win into the unmitigated blowout we expected coming into the game.
7. This space is reserved for absurd
The title of this entry is entering endangered status after two straight games without absurd touchdowns by Gopher receivers. That doesn't mean that there weren't any highlights, however.
Bateman did not score, but this was unquestionably the best catch of the day. It belongs here.
8. The Gophers aren't getting lucky with fumbles, but they aren't unlucky overall.
Rutgers fumbled three times on Saturday, and Minnesota recovered none of them. If it feels like Minnesota hasn't recovered many fumbles recently, it's because they haven't. There have been 10 fumbles or muffs in Minnesota's four Big Ten games, and the Gophers have recovered just one of them. Over the whole season, they have recovered just seven of 23 fumbles or muffs — well below the 50 percent recovery rate you should expect for any team. That should suggest that the Gophers might be getting unlucky, right?
Yes, but it looks like their lack of fumble luck is getting balanced out. The Gophers have defensed (broken up or intercepted) 41 passes this season. On average, teams intercept 21 to 22 percent of the passes they defense, and the Gophers' nine interceptions are 22.0 percent of passes they've defensed. So everything is normal there.
On the other side of the ball, Morgan has thrown 22 passes that have been defensed, and just three of those (13.6 percent) have been intercepted. Therefore, Minnesota might be getting lucky by avoiding interceptions on offense.
I've tried to approximate Bill Connelly's turnovers luck metric on my own using these basic tenets. What follows is a table that might be hard to digest; just know that the two most important rows are at the bottom.
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| Expected INT/PD % is an approximation — on average, teams intercept 21 to 22 percent of passes they defense every year. I do not have this year's national rate, which would more accurately represent Minnesota's expected INT/PD % and, subsequently, their expected turnover margin. However, the results should not be significantly different. |
The overall point is that it looks like Minnesota's bad fumble luck is getting evened out by luck on Morgan's throws that opposing players defense. The outcomes of turnover opportunities are not heavily favoring the Gophers or their opponents. The difference between expected and actual turnover margin amounts to one-eighth of a turnover per game, which translates to less than 1 point.
Though the Gophers might have needed some luck in non-conference play — or gotten bad luck to make them close games — the scales have been balanced over their first seven games.
9. The game's best highlight came well after the game was decided.
10. Minnesota now is alone atop the Big Ten West.
The game this weekend with the greatest implications for Minnesota's season happened not in Piscataway, but in Champaign.
THE BIGGEST UPSET OF THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON pic.twitter.com/Y3pzBKTaBQ— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) October 19, 2019
Illinois' defeat of Wisconsin pushes open the door a little more for a Minnesota division title. The Badgers will be underdogs in Columbus this Saturday, facing a Buckeyes team that has yet to meet a speed bump despite playing a few respectable opponents. Wisconsin looked like one of the few teams that could give Ohio State a fight, but O.S.U. already looked nearly impossible to beat before Wisconsin slipped up against Illinois.
If Wisconsin does lose and Minnesota beats Maryland, the Gophers will have a two-game lead on their two biggest rivals in the division going into their idle week. If Wisconsin beats Iowa as expected, that means Minnesota can go 1-2 over their next three games and still play for the West title on Nov. 30. Wisconsin's loss gives Minnesota a lot more room for error.
Next Game
The Gophers have already taken down two teams that torched them on the ground last season. Saturday, a third comes to Minneapolis in the form of the Maryland Terrapins.
Maryland has had rotten injury luck over the past few seasons, and this season is no different. Since fall camp, six Terrapins have suffered season-ending injuries, and more have missed at least one game.
Quarterback Josh Jackson, a Virginia Tech transfer, hasn't played since Oct. 5, but he is the expected starter against Minnnesota. Neither he nor backup Tyrrell Pigrome has offered much consistency as a passer. Outside of the shifty Dontay Demus Jr., Maryland's large receiver group has had few opportunities to make plays this season because of the problems at quarterback.
Star running back Anthony McFarland also missed Saturday's game, but he's also supposed to return. His presence gives Maryland one of the best and deepest rushing attack in the country. Excluding sacks and kneeldowns, the Terps are averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Junior Javon Leake ran for 158 yards as the starter last week, and he is third in FBS in yards per carry. Third-stringer Tayon Fleet-Davis is not as dangerous, but he's a reliable enough backup.
If the Gophers try turning to their own talented running backs, they may have problems on offense. Maryland has been adept at stopping the run, led by veteran safety Antoine Brooks Jr. and former Ohio State linebacker Keandre Jones. The two of them have combined for 15.0 tackles for loss.
The easier way to attack the Terps is through the air. Most of their opponents have thrived throwing the ball; Maryland ranks in the bottom 20 of FBS in both completion percentage and yards per pass, and outside of Jones, Maryland doesn't have much of a pass rush. The Gophers have the talent to exploit the weaknesses of this defense. They would be foolish to not use it.
Joe Rossi's defense has not allowed many big runs since his appointment. If that keeps up against Maryland, this game should be decided quickly. If not, it could become a high-scoring game that endangers Minnesota's perfect record. Though anticipation for the Nov. 9 matchup with Penn State is already building, it will mean a whole lot less if Minnesota does not handle Maryland.
Maryland has had rotten injury luck over the past few seasons, and this season is no different. Since fall camp, six Terrapins have suffered season-ending injuries, and more have missed at least one game.
Quarterback Josh Jackson, a Virginia Tech transfer, hasn't played since Oct. 5, but he is the expected starter against Minnnesota. Neither he nor backup Tyrrell Pigrome has offered much consistency as a passer. Outside of the shifty Dontay Demus Jr., Maryland's large receiver group has had few opportunities to make plays this season because of the problems at quarterback.
Star running back Anthony McFarland also missed Saturday's game, but he's also supposed to return. His presence gives Maryland one of the best and deepest rushing attack in the country. Excluding sacks and kneeldowns, the Terps are averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Junior Javon Leake ran for 158 yards as the starter last week, and he is third in FBS in yards per carry. Third-stringer Tayon Fleet-Davis is not as dangerous, but he's a reliable enough backup.
If the Gophers try turning to their own talented running backs, they may have problems on offense. Maryland has been adept at stopping the run, led by veteran safety Antoine Brooks Jr. and former Ohio State linebacker Keandre Jones. The two of them have combined for 15.0 tackles for loss.
The easier way to attack the Terps is through the air. Most of their opponents have thrived throwing the ball; Maryland ranks in the bottom 20 of FBS in both completion percentage and yards per pass, and outside of Jones, Maryland doesn't have much of a pass rush. The Gophers have the talent to exploit the weaknesses of this defense. They would be foolish to not use it.
Joe Rossi's defense has not allowed many big runs since his appointment. If that keeps up against Maryland, this game should be decided quickly. If not, it could become a high-scoring game that endangers Minnesota's perfect record. Though anticipation for the Nov. 9 matchup with Penn State is already building, it will mean a whole lot less if Minnesota does not handle Maryland.
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