October 30, 2019

In Review: Maryland 10-52 Minnesota

Though it was one of the worst-uniformed games of the college football season, Saturday's 52-10 dismantling of Maryland was a nearly perfect game for Minnesota heading into their idle week. It was Minnesota's 10th straight win going back to 2018, their fourth straight blowout, and their fifth straight dominant performance against a conference opponent.

The Gophers have beaten three of the six teams who beat them last season, and they're guaranteed a chance at two more (Iowa and Northwestern) before the season ends. There is too much of the season left to say whether they'll get a shot against the sixth (Ohio State) in Indianapolis, but with a two-game lead in the Big Ten West, that's entirely up to them.

1. This was Minnesota's offensive line's best performance of the season.

Against a team whose front seven has fared well against the run this season by metrics both standard (3.4 yards per carry allowed entering Saturday, 28th-best in FBS) and advanced (2.12 line yards per carry allowed, 17th-best in FBS), Minnesota ran the ball at will. There were not any huge runs for Rodney Smith, Shannon Brooks, or Mohamed Ibrahim like there were against Illinois and Nebraska, but the three of them ran for 10 or more yards eight times, including on this carry:


Offensive Coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca relentlessly attacked the left side of the line with his running backs, and they seldom encountered resistance. Here, Brooks had to evade an intentionally unblocked defender, but his blockers took care of everyone else.


I mean, look at how they walled off the defenders:


If the unblocked defender hadn't played the mesh point so well, Brooks could have broken a 20-yard run or longer.

One way the Gophers kept winning at the line was by inserting an extra lineman. John Michael Schmitz, who has rotated with Blaise Andries, Conner Olson, and Blaise Andries between the interior positions this year, entered the game in power situations. Here's a six-man line in the Wildcat package:


And here's a six-man line in front of the end zone:


Maybe the Gophers have implemented this before, but I did not notice it until this game. Regardless, adding more pounds to the line is a smart (if straightforward) way to attack a loaded defensive front. (It also opens up the possibility of a lineman receiving touchdown, which I would fully support.)

Statistically, it was as impressive a performance as the line has had all year.

You can find explanations of each stat here.

Few rushing attempts failed to reach the line, and nearly three-fifths of attempts gained at least three yards. The Gophers averaged a full Line Yard more per carry than the FBS average of 2.48 last season and about a third of a Line Yard more than the nation-leading Wisconsin line averaged. That is utter dominance, and it allowed the Gophers to hold the ball for nearly 43 minutes.

The line also gave Tanner Morgan a clean pocket most of the day, allowing zero sacks. Morgan had ample time and space to make throws.


Among the most glaring positional weaknesses P.J. Fleck inherited upon his hiring was on the offensive line. In three years, it's become a position of strength. That strength was on full display against Maryland.

2. The passing attack played a lesser role in the offense, but it still had its moments.

On the Gophers' second drive, the Terps showed that they had done their homework.


Run-pass options are a major part of Minnesota's offense. The decision to run or pass, however, is not always made after the snap. Often, it's made presnap, with Morgan looking to the sideline for the decision and giving his linemen the corresponding run or pass call.

Maryland's defense generally defends the run well but struggles against the pass. The Gophers can both run and pass effectively, which makes it harder for the Terps to devise a defensive strategy: load the box to stop the run, and you're susceptible to the pass. Drop back to stop the run, and you're susceptible to the run. And it's always harder to defend either when the other team can turn to either to gain yards.

On the above play, Maryland tried to force Minnesota to tell them what was coming with their presnap alignment. They crammed the line at first.


Morgan's response was to check out of the run. Maryland caught on and dropped back.


Morgan checked back to the run. Maryland had forced Minnesota to do what Maryland was, in theory, better equipped to handle. Brooks still gained 5 yards.


Maryland similarly adjusted to presnap calls later in the drive, but the bottom line was that the defense couldn't cover Minnesota's receivers well enough for their adjustments to matter.



On the second play above, the Terrapins didn't change their alignment, but their players made hand signals that suggest to me they knew a pass was coming.

Morgan's day was underwhelming enough to drop him to 7th in FBS in passer rating, but he didn't need to be great. His receivers helped him out at moments, like on this Chris Autman-Bell diving catch.


Maryland helped him out, too. Surely charitable hearts must been why they called a Cover 0 blitz against 11 personnel with receivers on the field who repeatedly feast off of slant routes.


Morgan finished 12-of-21 with 138 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.

3. The Gophers contained another potent rushing attack.

Anthony McFarland and Javon Leake are two explosive running backs who had combined for 839 rushing yards in Maryland's first seven games. Tyrrell Pigrome had averaged nearly 7 yards per carry. The Terps typically run the ball quite well. They beat the Gophers last year by running the ball absurdly well, averaging 8.8 yards per attempt.

And they were entirely unremarkable on Saturday.

All references to rushing attempts exclude sacks.

The Terrpains avoided negative plays well enough, but they couldn't consistently create space for their backs. A 38.1 percent opportunity rate would rank in the bottom 10 of FBS through the first nine weeks of the season.

Here, Chris Williamson was unblocked and stuffed McFarland at the line.


Here, Leake barely reached the line when Joe Rossi brought a blitz with Thomas Barber and Antoine Winfield Jr., the latter of whom made the tackle after the former occupied the center.


Here, Pigrome escaped the Minnesota pass rush but was leveled by Braelin Oliver after just a 2-yard gain.


Leake's 33-yard run in the second quarter was the only major leak sprung in the defense, and that was responsible for more than a third of Maryland's output on the ground and more than half the team's highlight yardage. Few runs even had the chance to reach the second level. The front six (plus Williamson) did an excellent job stopping Maryland's best skill players, despite missing starting linebacker Kamal Martin.

Another rushing attack that lit up the Minnesota defense last year has left Minneapolis having done little damage. Rossi continues to validate his appointment after Robb Smith's firing.

4. When forced to pass, Maryland couldn't. That probably says as much about the Gophers as it does their opponent.

Maryland has struggled to find a passing game all season. Saturday continued that trend. Tyrrell Pigrome's second throw went over his receiver head and into Winfield's chest.


Pigrome's next dropback was a completion, but that was followed by a sack. Mike Locksley pulled Pigrome and gave Josh Jackson a series. Jackson was 0-for-2 and then returned to the sideline.

In the second quarter, a short punt by Jacob Herbers and progress on the ground brought the Terps to the Gophers' 29-yard line. Down three touchdowns, it looked like they were about to make things interesting again.

A catastrophic set of downs changed that. First, a McFarland run was stopped at the line of scrimmage. Then, McFarland lost a yard on a screen, setting up 3rd-and-long. Finally, Pigrome hit Dontay Demus, his best receiver, on a crossing route, but Demus dropped it. It fell to Coney Durr, who made his first interception of 2019 and never stopped running.


Pigrome played one more drive until suffering a knee injury, at which point redshirt freshman Tyler Desue took over for the rest of the game. Desue completed a third of his passes and gained 59 of his 88 yards on one garbage time touchdown against backups.

Maryland's passers finished the day with a 43 percent completion rate, averaged 5.7 yards per attempt, and were sacked twice. Even granting them that their receivers dropped some throws and that their pass protectors did them no favors, it was an ugly performance in a season full of them.

Minnesota has seen a lot of teams with ugly passing attacks. This season, the Gophers have faced one offense who ranks in the top half of FBS in yards per pass attempt: Nebraska, who is 19th but who was without starting quarterback Adrian Martinez when visiting Minneapolis. The next-highest-ranked passing game Minnesota has played: 76th-ranked Purdue. Three of the opposing offenses so far rank in the bottom 22 of FBS: Rutgers, Illinois, and Georgia Southern. South Dakota State, meanwhile, ranks 56th in FCS in yards per pass attempt.

The Gophers keep shutting down teams with bad passing attacks. They deserve credit for that, certainly, but they haven't faced any major tests. That will change when Penn State (20th in yards per attempt) and Wisconsin (42nd) come to town. Until then, you can reasonably call the Gopher pass defense good, but like the rest of the team, you're allowed to question just how good it actually is.

5. The "Green Line" is operational again.

Minnesota's Wildcat package hasn't been nearly as effective this season as it was last season. Seth Green's 12 carries had yielded 15 yards through seven games. But Maryland could not stop him on Saturday. On six attempts, Green gained 34 yards and scored two touchdowns.



While the package likely succeeded because every other kind of run was working, it was encouraging to see it work again.

6. After the starters left the game, the backups made some impressive plays.

Treyson Potts was the star of garbage time. These look like identical plays, but I swear that they happened consecutively.



Potts gained 40 yards on those two carries. On his next carry, he gained none, but later, he scored his first two collegiate touchdowns:


His teammates, evidently jealous of The Treyson Potts Show, made some big plays of their own. Here's a perfect back-shoulder pass from true freshman Jacob Clark to receiver Harry Van Dyne:


Prior Lake native Preston Jelen made his Golden Gophers debut as well, running for 22 yards on three carries. He gained 13 yards on this run:


The second-string defense allowed a touchdown, sure, but the reserve offense made a great day for Gopher football even more fun.

7. This space is reserved for absurd catches by Gopher receivers.


What can you even say about this? Even when Morgan makes a poor throw, Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman are there to make plays. This one was more than a bit lucky, but Bateman still made an impressive diving catch.

8. Fleck's timeout usage is generally odd, but that oddness reached new heights.

Fleck is an exemplar of the "CEO" coach archetype. He recruits well, he gets the most out of his players' potential, he hires good assistants, he is an exuberant spokesman for the university, he and his team are active in the community both on and off of campus, and he is by all accounts an excellent motivator on gameday. You could want few other men building and maintaining your program.

All of this can overshadow the fact that Fleck is an inconsistent game manager. He is upfront about leaving tactics to his assistants, which is fine. But as head coach, he still makes key decisions on timeouts, 4th down, and broad philosophy, like pace. In this area, he shows weaknesses.

Fleck says he makes 4th down decisions based on gut. Those decisions aren't always smart: On the edge of the red zone against Nebraska, the Gophers tried unsuccessfully to draw the Cornhuskers offside and then punted. Last week, he said the first stat he looks at in a box score is time of possession — which is nearly meaningless; dominating time of possession is a possible product of dominant play, not a cause or universal indicator of it — and he cited his belief in establishing the run. Never mind that his team has one of the most efficient passing games in the country, or that there's no correlation between running and the effectiveness of play-action.

He also takes timeouts early and often, particularly in the first half. Against Maryland, Fleck gave the most extreme example of this tendency, calling all three first-half timeouts in the first quarter and then all three second-half timeouts in the third quarter. He said postgame that he had never done that before and that he is generally less willing to call timeouts in the second half. And in fairness to him, he took his final timeout with a 28-point lead, so it was unlikely to matter. It remained bizarre.

9. Saturday may have signaled an increase in fan interest. But how much of an increase?

The official attendance figure (44,715) was less than 90 percent of the stadium's capacity. There were plenty of empty seats in the upper decks and the occasional pocket of empty maroon chairs in the lower bowl. It was perhaps a disappointing showing for a 7-0 Power Five team.

It was also Minnesota's second-biggest official crowd of the season at home, surpassed only by the opener (49,112), and it was the third-biggest against an opponent other than Iowa or Wisconsin since Fleck became head coach. Against a mediocre team from the east coast with whom Minnesota has little history (this was the two programs' fifth meeting), the Gophers saw more fans in the stands than they usually do.

At the same time, one wonders how significant this was. The student section was more full than normal after the athletic department heavily promoted $7 student tickets all week, which may have been the biggest factor in increasing attendance. Public address announcer Jamie Verbrugge told those left in the stadium that "limited" tickets remain for Penn State, but that could easily have been marketing-speak.

Though Google Trends aren't the most scientific way to gauge fan interest, they do tell you something. Searches for "Gopher football" spike every gameday and day after, but it looks like the weekday valleys have climbed slightly higher since the beginning of the season. And when I say "slightly," I mean slightly:



Searches for "Gopher football tickets" peak in the day or two after a game, but those Sunday-Monday surges don't stand out as much compared to other days. There isn't much to glean on a 90-day scale.



Shrinking to a 30-day scale suggests, however, that searches for "Gopher football tickets" became more common on weekdays after Minnesota's over Nebraska.



If people are thinking about buying tickets more often in the middle of the work week, maybe that means they're warming to the idea of coming to games. The crowd that showed up for the Maryland game support that conclusion.

I expect bigger crowds the rest of the way. Attendance at a Minnesota game hasn't officially topped 50,000 since 2015. Perhaps the program can threaten that mark with two massive games left on the home schedule.

10. Minnesota remains firmly in the driver's seat for the Big Ten West.

In Columbus, Ohio State covered the lofty 14.5-point spread against Wisconsin and just kept rolling to a 38-7 victory, kicking the Badgers down to 18th in the AP Poll. In Evanston, Iowa won an unsightly 20-0 game against Northwestern. The results most important to the Gophers went their way, and they lead the West by two games going into their idle week.

Though not favored in three of the last four games, Minnesota is the frontrunner for the division. According to FPI, they're projected to win 9.9 games, which is more than Wisconsin or Iowa is projected to win, albeit narrowly. Depending on what games they win and if any surprises pop up, a 2-2 final stretch could be enough to send the Gophers to Indianapolis — and after that, possibly a New Year's Six bowl.

Leaving Madison with the Axe last year was Fleck's first statement win with the program, giving skeptical Minnesotans proof of concept. These last four games give ample opportunity to make more statements. This is a chance to show that Minnesota can be relevant on a national level, something that's seemed untrue since the 1960s. November 2019 could prove a pivotal month in the history of the program.

Next Game


The biggest game in their stadium's history looms when the Gophers get back from a bye. Penn State is also undefeated and presumably any Big Ten West champion's biggest competition for a Rose Bowl bid. (This assumes that Ohio State wins the conference and makes the Playoff.)

The Nittany Lions are likely the best opponent on the schedule this season. Their only hiccups have been against Pitt, Iowa, and Michigan — three teams with top-12 defenses, according to SP+. Most recently, Penn State won by three touchdowns in the East Lansing rain. Though Michigan State slowed down Penn State offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne's unit, Brent Pry's defense enveloped the Spartans and kept the game one-sided.

I plan to post a full Penn State preview soon, but without yet having done a deeper dive, I believe the key areas will be along the line of scrimmage when Minnesota has the ball, and in the intermediate level when Penn State does.

The Nittany Lions' defense is one of the country's best, and it starts up front. Opponents average 3.2 yards per carry; Maryland ran for just 85 yards on 30 attempts when Penn State visited State College. Fifteen players have made 2.0 or more tackles for loss this season. Defensive ends Shaka Toney and Yetur Gross-Matos each have 5.5 sacks. The defense's havoc rate is a ridiculous 22 percent. This team's stat sheet is mighty impressive. To move the ball, Minnesota's offensive line needs to continue its run of good performances, and Morgan and company must make passing a viable option against a team that also defends the pass well.

Minnesota's linebackers and nickelbacks face a serious challenge in the middle. K.J. Hamler is an electric slot receiver around whom defensive coordinator Joe Rossi must gameplan; Rahne tries to get Hamler the ball as much as possible. Jahan Dotson should not be neglected, either; the true sophomore is averaging 18.4 yards per catch. The running backs get plenty of targets in the passing game as well, and so does tight end Pat Freiermuth. Quarterback Sean Clifford also offers plenty of running ability, adding another ground threat to Penn State's backfield. This offense has the speed at enough positions to attack a defense in multiple ways. Keeping up with receivers and making tackles near the line of scrimmage is as crucial against PSU as it is against anyone.

The Gophers have taken care of business in eight games in which they were favored. In a week-and-a-half, they'll be underdogs hosting one of the nation's best teams. It's the biggest game of the season so far and one of the program's biggest games in decades. It will be on ABC with little competition in the 11:00 window. The eyes of the college football world will be on Minneapolis.

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