Though the Gophers looked like they'd be at least slight favorites in each of their first five games (according to SP+, their lowest preseason win probability was 53 percent at Fresno State), it is hard not to feel excited at Minnesota's direction after a 5-0 start and two straight commanding wins over Big Ten teams.
1. Minnesota held Reggie Corbin and the Illinois rushing attack in check.
Last year's game in Champaign was an absolute disaster for Minnesota. The Illini ran for 435 yards, which was more than 95 teams in FBS averaged per game in total offense. Corbin, Dre Brown, and then-quarterback A.J. Bush did what they wanted from the second snap.
That did not repeat itself in Minneapolis this year. Every Illinois possession ended with a kick, punt, or turnover. Perhaps the biggest reason was that the explosive Corbin had an abnormally pedestrian day.
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| You can find explanations of each stat here. |
The Gophers caused few losses and generally conceded the first few yards to the Illini. But the crucial stat is highlight yardage. Highlight yards are what you get by subtracting line yards from total rushing yards. With line yards, the offensive line gets credit for the first 3 yards and half credit for the next 6; the runner gets credit for everything else. (The line also gets all the blame, plus an extra 20 percent, for losses.) A highlight opportunity is any rush for more than 3 yards; dividing an offense's highlight yardage by the number of highlight opportunities it creates gives you a simple measure of rushing explosiveness.
The national average for highlight yards last season was 5.25 per opportunity. In their rout of the Gophers last season, the Illini averaged a ridiculous 27.28 yards per highlight opportunity. On Saturday, they had many opportunities, but they hardly did anything with them. Only three carries gained more than 9 yards, and Illinois's longest run of the day was for 21 yards.
Minnesota's defense seldom let Corbin reach the second level. The Gophers contained the edge better, and the missed tackles that fueled Purdue's late comeback attempt last week did not recur against Illinois. The key to stopping the Illini was slowing down Corbin, and the Gophers did that.
2. Illinois could do nothing through the air.
Though Illinois has talented receivers, getting them the ball has been a problem for some time. Brandon Peters' accuracy is inconsistent, and his indecision and tendency to lock onto his first read have wasted well-run routes. Plus, he has had difficulty avoiding sacks.
When Peters left the game Saturday with an injury, he was 5-of-10 for only 32 yards and a terrible interception thrown behind his target:
Redshirt freshman Matt Robinson came in and evaded the Minnesota pass rush well, but he completed just over 50 percent of his throws and averaged 4.3 yards per attempt. The Gopher defense got a boost from inaccurate throws and dropped passes, but it still kept the opposing offense from reaching the red zone in the second half. The Gophers broke up passes and made three sacks, and the Illini's longest pass play was for 16 yards. Even adjusting for the opponent, this was an impressive performance from the Minnesota pass defense.
3. Kamal Martin is one of this defense's most important players.
He has missed two games, but the senior from Burnsville is third on the team in tackles, tied for second in passes defensed, and first in forced fumbles after forcing two on Saturday:
That @GopherFootball defense is playing LOUD. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/eVPidpnDAM— Minnesota on BTN (@MinnesotaOnBTN) October 5, 2019
I covered last week how Minnesota's linebackers rotate between two spots depending on their strengths and weaknesses. Martin, a safety in high school, is Minnesota's top coverage linebacker, and since putting on 10 pounds this offseason, he's shown that he has both the speed and strength to stop the run.
4. When the rain took away the Gophers' passing game, their rushing game was excellent.
Fleck likes to say that circumstances should not dictate his team's behavior. This is a perfectly fine thing to tell his players. The point isn't that they should be impervious to outside factors, but that they must always focus on execution.
That said, there's no question that the wet weather affected the Gophers' ability to throw the ball. It wasn't a downpour, but a light sprinkle fell for most of the first half and much of pregame. In the first half, Minnesota receivers dropped three passes, and Illinois's Ricky Smalling dropped two (one of which didn't count after a penalty).
Going into halftime, Tanner Morgan had completed four of 12 pass attempts for 50 yards. Against an inept Illinois secondary but a front seven that had generally successfully stopped the run this season, this was not an ideal start for Minnesota's offense.
That did not matter much, however, because Minnesota dominated Illinois on the ground.
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| That yards per carry mark... |
Rodney Smith followed up last week's season-high rushing total at Purdue with a career-high 211 yards against Illinois. Additionally, Shannon Brooks added another 111 yards. The Gophers' veteran running backs, both healthy for just the second game since October 2017, looked like the stars they were before their injuries. If their performances these past two games are any indication, they could still be stars in a multi-dimensional Minnesota offense.
Before Saturday, Minnesota's two longest runs this season were for 17 yards each. Smith or Brooks bested that mark five times against Illinois, including on this 64-yard gain by Smith in the second quarter:
The O-line had a generally good day, but often, Smith and Brooks got their yards by breaking tackles, finding cutback lanes, and juking defenders.
Look at how the following play developed.
This was supposed to be outside zone.
Left Guard Blaise Andries and left tackle Sam Schlueter were supposed to clear out their side of the line, but defensive tackle Tymir Oliver jumped the snap and forced Andries into the backfield. Still, Andries stayed on his block and kicked Oliver outside. Everyone else won their blocks. The backside linebackers were busy watching Morgan pretend to hold the ball, leaving tons of open space in the second level. Brooks abandoned the outside run, went through the hole Schlueter and John Michael Schmitz opened, and picked up 25 yards. (Illinois linebacker Jake Hansen added 15 more by grabbing Brooks' facemask.)
This play showed how the Gophers won on the ground: Minnesota's linemen outmuscled their opponents; the threat of run-pass option and play-action distracted Illinois's linebackers; and Smith and Brooks had the vision, speed, agility, and power to make plays themselves.
5. Coming out of halftime, Minnesota put the game away through the air.
The rain and wind eased up during the break. With drier conditions, Minnesota immediately went back to the air on this play-action pass to Rashod Bateman.
You know how well the run fake worked here? Safety Kerby Joseph reached the line of scrimmage before realizing that Morgan was throwing the ball.
After a run and a short pass to Smith, the Gophers went to play-action again. Once again, Joseph bit on the fake.
It was an easy touchdown for Chris Autman-Bell.
On the Gophers' next drive, they made it most of the way down the field by running but extended their lead to 20 points with another play-action pass. Against 12 personnel, Illinois fielded an eight-man box and played Cover 1. Once tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford beat Joseph in man coverage, all he had to do was catch Morgan's pass for his first college touchdown.
It may have taken a while, but eventually, the passing game that fueled Minnesota's win over Purdue made its mark against Illinois.
6. Morgan had some problems.
Though his final line was good, and his receivers let him down at points, Morgan was not faultless.
His lone interception of the game came on the Gophers' second drive.
In the postgame press conference, Morgan said he was trying to throw over middle linebacker Dele Harding and hit Bateman. I've circled Bateman in blue below.
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| I'm uncertain whether Tyler Johnson at the top was open. The deep safety on that side is off-screen but might have moved away from Johnson on the throw. |
Watching in the stadium, I thought Morgan must have been trying to check down to Ko Kieft but badly missed. It just didn't make sense that he'd intentionally throw into that cluster of defenders behind Kieft, but that is what he did. Like on his previous two interceptions this season, Morgan tried to force the ball into a tight window and was punished for it.
He also looked off even when the offense moved the ball. Take this throw behind Autman-Bell, who bailed out Morgan with a sliding catch:
Morgan probably should have put more lead on the pass, but that might have put the ball within the reach of a defender to intercept. The bigger problem was the timing: If the ball had come out a moment earlier, Autman-Bell might have caught it in stride and picked up more yards.
On Bateman's half-opening 59-yard catch, Morgan was off again. Look at how much space there is in the secondary:
This time, the problem was the amount of lead Morgan put on the pass. This could have been a bigger play — or a touchdown — if Morgan hit his receiver in stride. Bateman was all alone, with the entire Illinois defense behind him. But he couldn't score because he had to slow down to make the catch.
Then there was the touchdown pass to Autman-Bell. Joseph's hard bite on play-action left his zone totally unoccupied. Autman-Bell, meanwhile, beat his man inside on a post.
Morgan should have gotten the rid of the ball right there. He didn't throw it until maybe half a second later. Against the Illinois secondary, that did not cost him. Against a better one, however, Morgan has to anticipate when these routes are about to come open, or else they'll be closed by the time the ball gets there.
I blame Conner Olson more than Morgan for the strip-sack that ended in a touchdown, but Morgan could have done better here, too. It looked like he didn't feel Hansen coming for him. If he did, he could have stepped up in the pocket to buy himself an extra fraction of a second, or he could have gotten the ball out more quickly.
Despite a flawed day that ended with an uninspiring final line, Morgan still has the fourth-highest passer rating in FBS. That has more to do with Minnesota's receivers than with Morgan, but he's still been an intelligent and accurate enough passer to put his team in position to win. His mistakes against Illinois were not too costly.
7. This space is reserved for absurd touchdowns by Gopher receivers.
Johnson had problems catching passes in the first half, including on this play. But the ball bounced favorably after hitting his right hand here, and he did well to catch it on the second try and give Minnesota the lead.
8. Both head coaches made bad decisions with their timeouts at the end of the first half.
When Illinois failed to convert on 3rd-and-10, Lovie Smith, knowing he wanted to stop the clock and try a 46-yard field goal, could have waited to take his timeout until it was all but certain that Minnesota would not have a chance to score again after the kick. Instead, he took it with 17 seconds left.
Giving the opponent more time with the ball can only hurt you. If James McCourt missed his attempt, Minnesota would have half a field in front of them and at least two timeouts. If McCourt made it, Minnesota would still have had another possession, albeit with much more ground to cover. It was a bizarre call that gave the Gophers a chance to extend their lead regardless of the outcome of the kick.
As McCourt lined up for the field goal, Fleck took another timeout to ice him. He waited so long to take the timeout that McCourt had a chance to put a kick wide of the uprights, even if it didn't count.
We've known for a long time that icing attempts probably do not affect kickers at the NFL level. Studies of college kickers suffer from small sample sizes on long kicks and incomplete play-by-play data, which means the most conclusive data we have tell us that there's no point in trying to ice kickers. Coaches only call timeouts before high-leverage field goals to try and wield power in a situation where they are otherwise powerless.
If we want to consider variables other than what the macro-level stats say: You can argue just as easily that the threat of the timeout being called might have just as much of an effect on a kicker's psyche as actually taking the timeout does. Plus, it was a windy, wet day in Minneapolis. Taking the timeout effectively gave McCourt a practice kick in adverse conditions. His first attempt missed to the right, where the wind was blowing. That might have helped him adjust his aim and convert the second attempt, which he did.
Even if McCourt made his first, pre-timeout attempt and missed the second, Fleck made the wrong decision — if not by taking the timeout at all, then certainly by doing so right before the snap.
9. It wasn't the best day for Minnesota's special teams.
Grant Ryerse put the game's opening kickoff out of bounds. It was windy, sure, but that was far from an ideal start to the afternoon. Plus, it was Ryerse's second kick out of bounds this season. He won't join exclusive company until he adds another (only three kickers have three or more kickoffs out of bounds), but two is already too many.
Jacob Herbers has had a fine season punting, but his fumbled snap on an extra point attempt surely takes him out of Holder of the Year contention.
Those plays were sloppy. But Phillip Howard's fair catch on a kick return in the first quarter was perplexing. When Illinois scored on a pick-6, a sideline interference call pushed the ensuing kickoff back 15 yards. McCourt's kick only reached the 20-yard line, which gave Howard plenty of room to return it beyond the 25-yard line... and he didn't take advantage. It did not matter, but Minnesota surely would have liked better field position.
(In a 23-point win, it's hard to find many things to nitpick.)
10. The Gophers may not stop at 5-0.
Fleck likes his players to think of each game as its own season rather than look ahead on the schedule. That doesn't mean we have to do the same.
According to SP+, Minnesota's odds of missing a bowl game are less than a tenth of a percent. As the likely favorites in their next three games, the Gophers could enter their second bye week 8-0 before facing a brutal November.
If they win the games they're supposed to win and steal a game from Penn State or Iowa, the Gophers might be playing for both the Axe and the Big Ten West title in their season-ending matchup against the Wisconsin Badgers.
With the exception of Rutgers, however, it's easy to see any of Minnesota's underdog opponents causing problems. As tempting as it is to think about Indianapolis when everything is going right, there's still ample potential for some things to go even a little wrong.
Next Game
Nebraska, like Illinois, gashed Minnesota's defense on the ground in Lincoln last year. Maurice Washington and Adrian Martinez combined for 246 yards on 27 carries, and Scott Frost got his first win as head coach of his alma mater.
The Huskers are 4-2 despite an unimpressive start, having only beaten Northern Illinois convincingly. Plus, Martinez and nimble slot receiver J.D. Spielman are both day-to-day with knee injuries. Though the Nebraska offense has looked strong, it could look a lot less so with Noah Vedral at quarterback instead of Martinez. Washington and Wan'Dale Robinson both pose serious threats, but loading the box and double-covering Robinson are more viable strategies if the Huskers are without their stars.
The Gophers' rushing attack was ineffective in last year's game, but the passing game started working once Morgan relieved Zach Annexstad at quarterback. Morgan finished 11-of-16 with 214 yards and an interception, and Johnson caught 11 passes for a career-high 184 yards (counting Annexstad's passes). Nebraska has struggled to stop the run this season, so perhaps a fully healthy stable of backs (if Mohamed Ibrahim can play) can do more damage and play off a defense will surely try to keep Johnson from going off again.
Though Minnesota is favored, and injuries could improve their odds of winning, Nebraska is not so much worse that this is a gimme. It's not hard to foresee a close game or a Huskers win.
The Huskers are 4-2 despite an unimpressive start, having only beaten Northern Illinois convincingly. Plus, Martinez and nimble slot receiver J.D. Spielman are both day-to-day with knee injuries. Though the Nebraska offense has looked strong, it could look a lot less so with Noah Vedral at quarterback instead of Martinez. Washington and Wan'Dale Robinson both pose serious threats, but loading the box and double-covering Robinson are more viable strategies if the Huskers are without their stars.
The Gophers' rushing attack was ineffective in last year's game, but the passing game started working once Morgan relieved Zach Annexstad at quarterback. Morgan finished 11-of-16 with 214 yards and an interception, and Johnson caught 11 passes for a career-high 184 yards (counting Annexstad's passes). Nebraska has struggled to stop the run this season, so perhaps a fully healthy stable of backs (if Mohamed Ibrahim can play) can do more damage and play off a defense will surely try to keep Johnson from going off again.
Though Minnesota is favored, and injuries could improve their odds of winning, Nebraska is not so much worse that this is a gimme. It's not hard to foresee a close game or a Huskers win.
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