March 28, 2018

2018 Baseball Preview: Predictions

With baseball peeking above the horizon, Ski-U-Blog gives its second annual season preview series.

Having given his analysis of every club in the majors, Chandler now predicts the eventual standings, major award winners, and postseason. Included are links to each division preview.

Standings


American League


East


y-Yankees, 98-64

w-Red Sox, 89-73

Blue Jays, 81-81

Rays, 77-85

Orioles, 73-89

Central


y-Indians, 97-65

w-Twins, 84-78

White Sox, 72-90

Royals, 69-93

Tigers, 62-100

West


z-Astros, 102-60

Angels, 83-79

Athletics, 79-83

Mariners, 78-84

Rangers, 78-84

National League


East


y-Nationals, 92-70

Mets, 79-83

Phillies, 79-83

Braves, 74-90

Marlins, 59-103

Central


y-Cubs, 94-68

w-Cardinals, 86-76

Brewers, 84-78

Pirates, 77-85

Reds, 69-93

West


z-Dodgers, 97-65

w-Diamondbacks, 86-76

Giants, 81-81

Rockies, 80-82

Padres, 71-91

Awards


American League


MVP: Mike Trout, LAA

Cy Young: Chris Sale, BOS

Rookie of the Year: Shohei Ohtani, LAA

Manager of the Year: A.J. Hinch, HOU

Comments:

Until he ceases to be the best player in the sport, Trout is my preseason pick for Most Valuable Player. The BBWAA voting usually hasn't worked this way, but the best player is the best player.

Sale has stiff competition for the Cy Young from Corey Kluber, and may face more from pitchers like Luis Severino, but other than Clayton Kershaw, there might not be a better ace in baseball.

Trout's teammate Ohtani has struggled in spring training, but I'm willing to bet on his success in Japan and the value he should provide if he is even an average hitter.

National League


MVP: Bryce Harper, WAS

Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, LAD

Rookie of the Year: Ronald Acuña, ATL

Manager of the Year: Gabe Kapler, PHI

Comments:


For MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year, I keep things pretty simple and choose who I think will have the best seasons, as generally voting matches up with that. (There are exceptions, obviously.) This pretty much always means I pick the players I consider the best in their respective categories: Harper is the NL's best position player; Kershaw is the best pitcher, and Acuña looks like the best soon-to-be-rookie. Pretty easy.

In trying to pick Manager of the Year, however, I cannot just pick the manager I consider best. That is never how it works; otherwise, we would see the same guys win the award just about every year. Instead, the Manager of the Year often happens to be at the helm of the most surprising team, or is in his first year in charge of a contending team. (Sometimes, it is a legitimately top manager.)

The best candidate for a surprisingly successful season is the Phillies, who have earned their share of "dark horse" buzz like the Rockies did last spring. Perhaps that excludes them from "surprise" status, you say, but I do not think so: If Philadelphia finishes at or better than .500, the public will marvel, heaping praise upon their manager – who also happens to be in his first year and, as a known believer in numbers, is willing to try unconventional strategies. Therefore, I predict that Kapler will win.

Postseason


Wild Card


AL: Red Sox over Twins

NL: Diamondbacks over Cardinals

Divisional Series


ALDS: Astros over Red Sox in 4, Indians over Yankees in 5

NLDS: Dodgers over Diamondbacks in 4; Nationals over Cubs in 5

Championship Series


ALCS: Indians over Astros in 7

NLCS: Dodgers over Nationals in 6

World Series


Indians over Dodgers in 7

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