We continue with the NL Central, featuring three teams with realistic playoff aspirations.
Chicago Cubs
After winning their first championship in 108 years, the Cubs settled for just a division title and a NLCS appearance in 2017. What a bunch of slackers.
Chicago's defense was again one of the best in baseball, with almost every regular player contributing something with their gloves; and most of their bats weren't too bad, either. Cubs position players ranked fifth in fWAR and seventh in bWAR.
If you could find any significant problems in the lineup, it would be in the outfield, which looks merely average at the moment. Kyle Schwarber has shed weight but not demonstrated he can hit or field well for a whole season. Jason Heyward's fielding, while still better than average, slipped a bit in 2017, making you wonder if it can continue making up for his suddenly mediocre bat.
And Albert Almora and Ian Happ are... probably just fine, actually. For whatever (real) concerns you have about Schwarber's future and Heyward's hitting, the Cubs' outfield will probably be pretty adequate. It only looks disappointing compared to the All-Star infield and highly talented pitching staff.
Someday, that pitching staff will get dragged down by age, but it doesn't look like we're there yet. Yu Darvish is an obvious upgrade. Despite not having a Cy Young or postseason experience like Jake Arrieta, and, despite his warts, Tyler Chatwood could be pretty nifty too. Add in Jon Lester and hopefully full seasons of José Quintana and Kyle Hendricks, and you have a formidable starting rotation. (We'll see, should they be necessary, if Mike Montgomery and Eddie Butler are capable emergency options.)
The bullpen is a similar story, with Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek bolstering a group that also drifted closer to the middle of the pack last year but is full of guys with strong résumés.
You can find flaws, but it's hard to find real holes on this Cubs roster. They remain the Central favorites.
Milwaukee Brewers
After being bad but intriguing in 2016, the Brewers suddenly popped up as playoff contenders in 2017, standing alone atop the NL Central as late as July 25. However, a merely average second half was not enough to hold off the resurgent Cubs or keep pace with the Diamondbacks and Rockies, and the Brewers missed the postseason.
What caused this slowdown? Well, while the pitching staff improved – in large part because of the emergence of a dominant bullpen – the hitters stopped hitting. By wOBA, the first-half Brewers had the sixth-best offense in baseball. The second-half Brewers had the sixth-worst.
What caused this slowdown? Well, while the pitching staff improved – in large part because of the emergence of a dominant bullpen – the hitters stopped hitting. By wOBA, the first-half Brewers had the sixth-best offense in baseball. The second-half Brewers had the sixth-worst.
Still, for a team whose greatest promise was being "interesting" in spring training and whose last postseason run came in 2011, finishing second in the division to the reigning World Series winners was quite impressive.
However intriguing the Brewers were entering 2017, they might be more so entering 2018 after acquiring Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich late in the offseason to complete their outfield. Despite his age, Cain remains an above-average baserunner and defender; if time does start to catch up to his legs, he has the bat to switch spots with Yelich (a passable center fielder in Miami), or he can be spelled by 23-year-old Brett Phillips, whom MLB.com ranks the organization's sixth-best prospect. Of course, the powerful Domingo Santana remains entrenched in right. (The once-exciting Keon Broxton fades into the background.)
We'll see how this infield works. After a torrid April, Eric Thames was merely okay for the rest of the season, hitting .226/.335/.455 at first base. Ryan Braun, who projects for an identical wOBA this season – but, having not played infield since his almost record-setting third base disaster in 2007, will surely be worse defensively – has been getting reps at first in addition to his usual corner outfield spot. Perhaps together they can make it work, but some computers aren't quite sold.
Meanwhile, Jonathan Villar forgot how to walk or make contact, and with his tendency to bring a waffle iron to second instead a glove, his value dropped from that of a borderline All-Star (3.1 fWAR) to that of Matt Kemp (-0.5 fWAR) in a year. If he can't figure things out quickly, he will lose his job to one or both of Eric Sogard and Hernán Pérez. (That would be bad.)
Fortunately, the left side of the infield isn't so disconcerting. At 23, shortstop Orlando Arcia still has the sheen of a big-name prospect, and he was fine in 153 games last year. He's potentially a tweak away from being a solid regular. Despite a mild drop-off in production in the second half last year, third baseman Travis Shaw was arguably the team's best position player, combining a near-Thamesian .513 slugging percentage with above-average defense.
As mentioned though, Milwaukee doesn't just have weapons on offense: they succeeded last year in large part because of great pitching, including a formidable relief corps. Corey Knebel, with his 1.78 ERA and 40.8-percent strikeout rate, was one of the most reliable shutdown relievers in the sport, appearing in almost half of the team's games. Josh Hader made his MLB debut in June and for the next four months laid waste to hitters unprepared for his mean fastball (and less used but highly effective slider). Between these two and free agent signing Matt Albers, the Brewers now have three of last year's top 10 relievers in left-on-base rate. Throw in holdovers Jacob Barnes and Oliver Drake, plus longtime lefty-killer Boone Logan, and you have a top-of-the-line bullpen.
Despite the somewhat disconcerting infield situation, the Brewers have the lineup to sneak into the postseason this time. If Jimmy Nelson can get back to the mound quickly enough – though they have the rotation and bullpen depth to manage if he can't – they'll have the pitching, too. Their finish will depend a lot on the performance of the Cardinals.
St. Louis Cardinals
Since the turn of the millennium, the Cardinals have finished third or worse in their division just four times. Last season was the first time since 2008.
While St. Louis had a lot going for them in 2017 – a fine offense supported in large part by the surprising and powerful trio of Tommy Pham, Paul DeJong, and Jose Martinez; a great defense; and solid pitching – they just didn't win as much as they were supposed to. That doesn't sound very analytical, but it's the truth. Their BaseRuns record was five wins, and their Pythagorean record was four wins, better than their actual record.
(Interestingly, through six years, Mike Matheny has just once managed a team that didn't over- or underperform its Pythagorean record by more than two wins. On average, Matheny teams drift 4.3 games from their Pythagorean records in either direction. The most dramatic overperformance: seven extra wins in 2014. The most dramatic underperformance: five extra losses in 2012.)
The reason, as is so often the case when a team's record doesn't match its performance: Relatively poor results in important spots. Specifically, St. Louis' pitching was the victim, allowing a batting average 22 points higher in high-leverage situations than in low- and medium-leverage ones. By FanGraphs' Clutch stat, they were third-worst.
That kind of underperformance in big moments has been shown repeatedly to be unsustainable over time, so don't expect that to occur again.
The only notable pitching moves the Cards made were essentially swapping Trevor Rosenthal for Luke Gregerson, which should be a wash (Gregerson allowed a home run on almost a quarter of his fly balls last year, which is unlikely to happen again); bringing in Bud Norris, which should help; and seemingly letting Lance Lynn sign elsewhere, which is probably not a bad idea. So we could easily see a net gain, even if it's slight.
In a much bigger move, St. Louis traded for Marcell Ozuna, making their lineup much more intimidating than if they kept giving time in the outfield to Randal Grichuk (now in Toronto) and Stephen Piscotty (now closer to home in Oakland) – or, heaven forbid, Matt Adams (now in Washington by way of Atlanta). I'm unsure how well Pham will do in center, but if he doesn't embarrass himself and keeps hitting, it'll be hard to care too much.
If it feels like this is basically the same Cardinals team, plus Ozuna, it's because it is. Considering they were some bad luck away from being true Wild Card contenders last year, that's probably fine. Incremental improvement might put them in the postseason.
Pittsburgh Pirates
A firestorm raged over Pittsburgh this winter. After three straight postseason appearances, the Pirates finished their second straight season under .500, and then they traded away their two biggest stars: Gerrit Cole was sent to Houston, and Andrew McCutchen to San Francisco. Fans railed against the front office and further hated owner Bob Nutting. Some remaining veterans requested they also be traded and criticized the team's lack of winning culture. Accusations of tanking (or at least prioritizing the top pick in the draft over wins) flew. The Players' Association filed a grievance against the Pirates and three other teams.
With all this yelling setting everything ablaze, you would think the Pirates are the Central's Marlins, destined to lose 100 games and make themselves at home at the bottom of the division for the next few years. Let's see how many more games FanGraphs' projections think they'll lose.
+1 win
Oh. Huh. Well, FanGraphs' system got the Royals wrong a couple of times, and their guy who hated Eric Hosmer actually works for the Padres now, so clearly they have no credibility. What about PECOTA?
+3 wins
Maybe the team was just better than their 75-87 record last year. What was their Pythagorean record?
74-88
BaseRuns? Third-order record?
Both 70-92
So the Pirates outdid their expected record last season, traded away their biggest names, and may have gotten... better? What's the deal here?
To begin with, Cole and McCutchen weren't that exceptional. Adding Cole gives the Astros possibly the best rotation in baseball, but he doesn't make a staff by himself. He's quite a solid pitcher who has shown us he can be an ace; but he's only done it once; home runs suddenly became a problem for him last year; and he's now 27 with two seasons until free agency. Trading him makes sense.
McCutchen is a wonderful representative of the sport, symbol of the Pirates' resurgence, and a 31-year-old defensive liability with one year left on his contract and a very recent season of being either below or just above replacement level. Last season showed he is probably a good bit better than 2016 indicated, but his ability at this point is replaceable. Trading him makes sense.
The remaining roster is warty and underwhelming, but it honestly isn't that bad.
Unless he's just stupid, Starling Marté won't be suspended again this season. If the team gets something closer to first-half Corey Dickerson than to second-half Corey Dickerson; and if Gregory Polanco bounces back a little, the Pirates are good enough in the corners. If those two cannot fix themselves, Adam Frazier and Austin Meadows are there to pick up the slack.
The infield can be described in a word: passable. Josh Bell is a capable fielder and a powerful hitter that only knows how to pull grounders, which means for now he passes as a major-leaguer. (With some more loft, he could become a legit masher.) Josh Harrison can pass at any position other than shortstop, and I reckon he'll be pretty good at second full-time. Colin Moran is considered a high-floor third base prospect who is more likely to be passable than bad. Jordy Mercer is the embodiment of passability. While we're at it: Francisco Cervelli is definitely not great, but man, does he not look pretty passable right now?
Of course, Bell and Dickerson are the only guys in the lineup with above-average power, which doesn't bode too well. But nobody is an obvious black hole at the plate or in the field right now.
It's possible to trust the starting rotation, too. Jameson Taillon is a prime candidate for BABIP regression, which means he should be better. There could be some depth behind him, too: Iván Nova is basically Mercer's pitcher equivalent. Chad Kuhl, Joe Musgrove, and Trevor Williams are all mid-20s pitchers with some decent ability. And Tyler Glasnow and Steven Brault struggled last year but are young and inexperienced enough to grant them some leeway.
The bullpen, anchored by Felipe Rivero, could be better, but it's just mediocre rather than bad. The pitching staff looks wholly – here it comes again – passable.
I understand dissatisfaction with Nutting; from fans' tones, it seems like making money at the cost of winning is nothing new for him. And I understand frustration with seeing two stars traded away who embraced living in Pittsburgh; seeing favorite players in new uniforms is always tough. But for the time being, the front office seems to be doing an okay job with a tight budget and an underwhelming roster. We'll know if fans should break out the pitchforks sometime in the next couple of years.
Cincinnati Reds
One of these days, the Reds will start to look good again, right?
The lineup showed progress last year, scoring the 14th-most runs in baseball. Joey Votto continued on his path to the Hall of Fame, finishing with more walks than strikeouts for the third time in his career and hitting better than .300 for the eighth time. Eugenio Suárez found some plate discipline to complement his power and glove, becoming a bona fide star. Adam Duvall contributed 31 home runs, Scott Schebler exploded for 30 of his own, and Scooter Gennett decided that he wanted to hit some too, finishing his first season in Cincinnati with 27. (Scooter Gennett! 27 home runs!)
And this is without even mentioning the since-departed Zack Cozart, who suddenly became baseball's premier slugging shortstop. The Reds got so much offense from unexpected places.
Except from center field. Billy Hamilton played just over 82 percent of the Reds' total center field innings, providing stellar defense and baserunning that make him at least a tolerable regular despite his deficiencies on offense. But man, are those deficiencies major. Hamilton slashed .247/.299/335. His wOBA was sixth-lowest among qualified hitters. That was worse than Freddy Galvis, Albert Pujols, and Tim Anderson.
And Bryan Price used him as the team's leadoff hitter. I'm not just saying he did that most of the time. Hamilton played 139 games; in three, he pinch-hit for the ninth hitter, and in one, he pinch-hit for the fifth hitter. In the other 135 games, from Opening Day to Game 162, Hamilton started as the team's leadoff man. This is one of the most absurd ways you can mismanage a baseball team in 2018.
Price says he is giving the rookie Jesse Winker, who played in Hamilton's stead at points last year and hit well, a chance at the top spot. Regardless of whom he picks, Hamilton is entering his late 20s, which means he should significant declines in both baserunning and defense over the next few years. Considering that those two things currently comprise his whole value, he needs to find something that works at the plate to have a career beyond 30.
Fortunately for Price, the team's pitching was already so bad that hitting Hamilton first didn't really matter. If the Reds ever transition out of outright sucking, it will be because the pitching staff finally improves. For the past two seasons, they have finished last in baseball in fWAR, including a negative 2016 campaign; last year, they combined for a negative, last-place bWAR.
Luis Castillo is easily the most compelling, encouraging member of this staff, having struck out 27 percent of opposing hitters last year and generating plenty of ground balls without walking too many guys or giving up too many home runs.
That said, as with a lot of developing teams, there's enough going on here to pay some attention. If you like comebacks, keep an eye on Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan, and Homer Bailey (remember him?). If you wonder how a guy throwing 96 is a ground ball pitcher, turn on a Sal Romano start sometime. And if you want to watch pitchers 25 years old or younger, Castillo, Romano, Finnegan, Rookie Davis, Amir Garrett (until he turns 26 in May), Tyler Mahle, Robert Stephenson, and others can help you with that.
That said, youth still doesn't equal quality. The Reds may hit, but until they prove otherwise, I doubt they can pitch.
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Next: We finish the NL with the potentially stacked West.
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