Today, we close the book on the National League with a look at the West.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers are a good baseball team. They have lots of players that are good at hitting and fielding and lots of players that are good at pitching. They are so good that they won 104 games and the National League pennant last year. They are strong favorites to win it again.
That just about covers it, right? No?
Look, you try and think of something interesting and unique to say about the Dodgers. They're so good, so rich, and so in L.A. that everyone finds all the novel angles pretty quickly.
Let's just go around the diamond and marvel at the depth on this team, shall we?
The Dodgers' catcher is the above-average hitter and excellent defender and framer Yasmani Grandal, who stopped walking as much last year and as a result was "only" worth 5.0 WARP. Unless their catcher is the above-average defender and framer and potentially excellent hitter Austin Barnes, who evidently found major-league pitching pretty easy to handle in his first full season. Unless it's both of them. (It's both of them.) While Grandal hits free agency at the end of the season and is likely not in the team's plans beyond 2018, the Dodgers are good enough to just milk him for as much value as they can – which is a fair amount. Barnes is 28 but under control until he's 32. There are better individual catchers than Grandal or Barnes, but no team has a better duo.
At first, it's only the Rookie of the Year, a 22-year-old phenom who hits bombs, takes walks, makes great catches (at other positions, too), and possesses a center fielder's speed. Nothing to worry about here.
In the middle infield, you have an admittedly just okay player in Logan Forsythe, but he's paired with a two-time All-Star in Corey Seager, who last year (adjusting for ballparks) hit basically as well as Nolan Arenado and fielded about as well as Brandon Crawford.
At third is Justin Turner, still one of the game's best hitters after famously reinventing his swing a few years ago and dropping his strikeout rate to just over 10 percent last year. Until he stops hitting, he will remain a MVP candidate.
The outfield is where one might need to find some faith, as Joc Pederson, Chris Taylor, and Yasiel Puig have all been mediocre or bad quite recently. Of course, the latter two were together worth around eight wins last year because of dramatic changes in their respective approaches. I would trust them to play well again.
Pederson's bad season was just last year, which is much more disconcerting. Pederson has been a three-true-outcomes hitter since he came up, making up for strikeouts with walks and extra bases. However, last year, he sacrificed loft for contact. As a result, he hit more ground balls, which (like most hitters) he usually pulled more often than fly balls, hitting right into defensive shifts. Worse, he hit the ball hard less often: his hit-hard rates on flies and grounders dropped 6 and 9 percent, respectively. If cutting down on strikeouts was Pederson's goal, that worked; however, his BABIP was his worst in three full MLB seasons, dropping his average to .212 and his ISO to a pro-career-worst .194. Throw in a dramatic decline in defensive value, and you have a replacement-level player.
Pederson has the talent. Assuming his defense gets a boost from moving to left, he can return to being a very good player by playing more to his strengths at the plate. Otherwise, Kiké Hernandez, Andrew Toles, and Alex Verdugo are probably all capable of filling in; and the Dodgers would certainly be willing to find a new left fielder via trade.
Back to the good stuff: While not as deep as it was a couple of years ago, when the Dodgers kept stockpiling injury-prone veterans, the pitching staff remains full of capable pitchers. The rotation obviously includes the best pitcher of his generation, a reborn strikeout artist who's always tinkering, and a funkily throwing All-Star. It also includes the perfectly fine Kenta Maeda and Hyun-Jin Ryu, and the intriguing trio of Brock Stewart, Wilmer Font, and Walker Buehler. The back end could use some work, sure, but it's still a strong set of starters.
The pen is headed by the allergic-to-walks Kenley Jansen, the transformed Tony Cingrani, the sinkerballing maestro Scott Alexander, and two of the top popup generators in baseball in Pedro Báez and Josh Fields. Your level of trust in the secondary options may vary, but it's a good unit overall. If adjustments need to be made, the team has the assets to make them.
So I will say it again: The Los Angeles Dodgers are a good baseball team.
Arizona Diamondbacks
As we all obviously predicted last spring, the Diamondbacks are also a good baseball team, built on a foundation of extraordinary pitching. Despite playing half of their games in Arizona's high-altitude hitters' paradise – a place so hostile to pitching it gets a long-expected humidor this year – and despite pitching the fifth-most innings in baseball, no team allowed fewer home runs in 2018. Only five teams allowed lower batting averages or had larger differences in strikeout and walk rates. The D-Backs' staff was elite.
Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, and Zack Godley were the headliners in 2017, combining for a 3.15 ERA, a 28.6 percent strikeout rate, a 8.1 percent walk rate, and a 1.09 home runs per 9 innings rate. All three were brilliant, the types of pitchers most teams would love at the tops of their rotations. They were supported by Taijuan Walker (who might finally be good?) and Patrick Corbin, as well as a good bullpen. Said bullpen was led by Archie Bradley, the newest in the line of shaky starters who became dominant firemen (and, naturally, hit triples in elimination games).
You wonder about whether the rotation has proper depth. Anthony Banda was traded, Shelby Miller is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, Braden Shipley is decidedly not yet a big-league pitcher, and most of the Diamondbacks' pitching prospects in the high minors look like relievers. You don't wonder whether this team has the pitching to compete when healthy. They may not repeat the heights of 2017, but these pitchers should again be great.
As for the lineup: It's certainly not bad, and with their pitching, the Diamondbacks don't need the offense to be much better than average, but it's a little underwhelming by comparison. Paul Goldschmidt is still a top-five first baseman in the majors, one of the few who can contribute with his bat, glove, and legs. A.J. Pollock, now two years removed from the injury that prematurely ended his 2016, should return to All-Star form. Jake Lamb, David Peralta, and new outfielders Jarrod Dyson and Steven Sousa are all fine ballplayers. Ketel Marté has plenty of tools but is still putting everything together. Alex Avila has his merits.
It's just hard to get too worked up about any of their position players outside of Goldschmidt. As said before, the Diamondbacks can make the postseason again without fantastic position players. But in a potentially tight Wild Card race with the Brewers, Cardinals, Giants, and Rockies (and maybe even with the Phillies or Mets), it could keep them out. Expect another mid-season trade to upgrade the lineup, as they'll probably need to make one.
Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, and Zack Godley were the headliners in 2017, combining for a 3.15 ERA, a 28.6 percent strikeout rate, a 8.1 percent walk rate, and a 1.09 home runs per 9 innings rate. All three were brilliant, the types of pitchers most teams would love at the tops of their rotations. They were supported by Taijuan Walker (who might finally be good?) and Patrick Corbin, as well as a good bullpen. Said bullpen was led by Archie Bradley, the newest in the line of shaky starters who became dominant firemen (and, naturally, hit triples in elimination games).
You wonder about whether the rotation has proper depth. Anthony Banda was traded, Shelby Miller is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, Braden Shipley is decidedly not yet a big-league pitcher, and most of the Diamondbacks' pitching prospects in the high minors look like relievers. You don't wonder whether this team has the pitching to compete when healthy. They may not repeat the heights of 2017, but these pitchers should again be great.
As for the lineup: It's certainly not bad, and with their pitching, the Diamondbacks don't need the offense to be much better than average, but it's a little underwhelming by comparison. Paul Goldschmidt is still a top-five first baseman in the majors, one of the few who can contribute with his bat, glove, and legs. A.J. Pollock, now two years removed from the injury that prematurely ended his 2016, should return to All-Star form. Jake Lamb, David Peralta, and new outfielders Jarrod Dyson and Steven Sousa are all fine ballplayers. Ketel Marté has plenty of tools but is still putting everything together. Alex Avila has his merits.
It's just hard to get too worked up about any of their position players outside of Goldschmidt. As said before, the Diamondbacks can make the postseason again without fantastic position players. But in a potentially tight Wild Card race with the Brewers, Cardinals, Giants, and Rockies (and maybe even with the Phillies or Mets), it could keep them out. Expect another mid-season trade to upgrade the lineup, as they'll probably need to make one.
Colorado Rockies
Despite their status as everyone's preseason dark horses last year, the Rockies making the Wild Card Game actually felt fairly surprising, didn't it? They improved upon their 2016 record by 12 games, a sizable single-season swing. With a loaded bullpen and an impressive young starting rotation, they gave the world its first dose of Rocktober (as short as it was) in a decade.
However, the Rockies succeeded despite pretty significant holes in their lineup – holes that don't seem likely to fix themselves this season. As a team, they posted the majors' fourth-lowest wRC+, finishing the year 13 percent worse than average at the plate. As I'm sure you figured out already because this is always the theme of Rockies discussion, their numbers at home were great, but their numbers on the road were terrible. Where specifically were they terrible?
Catcher is a good starting point. Colorado used five catchers in 2017, and only one, Jonathan Lucroy, was serviceable. Two teams got less offense out of their catchers (again using wRC+, which adjusts for park).
Lucroy is gone now, so the team turns to familiar face Chris Iannetta, who did quite well for Arizona last year. If you can believe it, Iannetta is 11th in catcher fWAR since his debut in 2006, and he is one of just six players to catch games in both 2006 and 2017. He certainly has a track record of reliability, but considering he turns 35 in April, he may not stay reliable for much longer. If nothing else, Colorado needs better backup options than Tony Walters and Tom Murphy.
Additionally, Rockies first basemen were below replacement-level last season. That's the kind of thing that happens when you try a career second baseman(-turned-outfielder) out at first and give 135 starts to Mark Reynolds. We shouldn't be so hard on the front office though; it's not like anyone could have foreseen problems arising.
Twenty-three-year-old Ryan McMahon, who OPS-ed 1.023 at Triple-A Albuquerque last year and is considered the Rockies' second-best prospect, will man the position. His ground ball rate was a disconcerting 46 percent in the minors last year, so it's not exactly a lock the situation at first will improve immediately.
While Charlie Blackmon was tremendous in center, each corner of the outfield was horrendous last season. Gerardo Parra and Ian Desmond basically canceled each other out in left, the two combining for 0.0 fWAR in a combined 210 games. Those two's backups "provided" -0.6 wins. No right fielder could crack replacement-level.
But there's good news! The Rockies have addressed their outfield problems by...
...wait...
...that can't be right...
...this isn't a copy of last year's?
...no? Really? Okay then...
The Rockies, I've been told, have addressed their outfield problems by doing nothing and hoping it gets better. Yes, everyone from last year's outfield is back. They didn't sign anyone on a major-league deal to help, either.
Granted, it might get better; Raimel Tapia was a top prospect for a reason, and Carlos González could resemble an adequate hitter again (but certainly not an adequate fielder). Desmond could bounce back too. And David Dahl might become healthy and hit some dingers. I'm not holding out too much hope though.
For a team right on the edge of the playoffs – and facing stiff competition to make it in from within their own division – Colorado didn't really act like one this offseason. If they want to make it back into the postseason (and make it last more than a day), they have to fixed their hitting problems. Otherwise, they could find themselves with a middling record at best.
San Diego Padres
I swear there are interesting things about the Padres. This is a team on the rise that could conceivably be respectable in just a year, full of young players and starting to add pieces in preparation for the eventual breakthrough. They're definitely not good right now, but it's worth keeping an eye on how things progress in San Diego.
The most encouraging part of the Padres' roster is their outfield, where, if nothing else, the team has a multitude of options. Manuel Margot and Wil Myers, probably the team's two biggest names (outside of Eric Hosmer) are both under team control through at least 2021. The speedy, 23-year-old Margot is one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball and carries a decent enough bat with him to make him a potential All-Star. Myers is far less adept defensively, but his offense should translate better in right than it did at first.
And then there is the team's actual leader in fWAR last year, left fielder José Pirela. Pirela discovered how to hit for power last year, earning a June call-up by terrorizing Triple-A pitchers with a .304 isolated slugging. Over half a major-league season, Pirela posted a highly impressive .288/.347/.490 line and played a pretty good left field. He has the ability to fill in at second if needed, which might be necessary, depending on how Carlos Asuaje progresses.
The Padres have plenty of backups for Margot, Myers, and Pirela, though most of them demonstrate more tools than honed skills at this point. The highly intriguing Franchy Cordero is the most likely to stick, flashing speed, pop, and range. Travis Jankowski and Hunter Renfroe have speed and pop, respectively, but they're both incomplete at this point and not as young.
In the infield, veterans Freddy Galvis and Chase Headley are stopgaps more than permanent solutions (neither is under contract beyond 2018). However, the Padres of course made a high-profile move to fill first base long-term, signing Eric Hosmer for a ludicrous eight years and $144 million.
The Hosmer acquisition is controversial because, well, he's not that good. He alternates league-average seasons with replacement-level ones at the plate, and despite his reputation, he's a bad defender at the easiest defensive position. He's not at all worth the money he's getting.
For the time being though, ignoring finances, Hosmer is good enough for this team. He probably makes the Padres better for the next three years or so. If they really become a borderline playoff team soon, then it's better to have a useful first baseman in place now rather than wishing they had one a year or two down the line.
The pitching staff lacks the excitement or big money of the other areas of the team, but it's not short on simple competence. Clayton Richard and Luis Perdomo are perfectly capable starters, and Perdomo is still young enough to get better. If he can lower his walk and home run rates, Dinelson Lamet has a higher upside thanks to a tough fastball-slider combo. After him are a handful of serviceable but underwhelming options.
In relief, the Padres actually look solid, at least at the top: Brad Hand, worth 3.2 fWAR over the past two seasons, is still one of the best relievers in the game. Craig Stammen returned to the majors last year and did admirably, posting a 3.14 ERA. Kirby Yates struck out nearly 40 percent of the batters he faced after being claimed off waivers from the Angels in April. And 24-year-old Phil Maton, if you believe his minor league numbers, shouldn't allow so many homers this year and could be pretty good.
The Padres certainly aren't good yet, but they have pieces in place to get them there in a short while. For now, they could be fairly entertaining.
The most encouraging part of the Padres' roster is their outfield, where, if nothing else, the team has a multitude of options. Manuel Margot and Wil Myers, probably the team's two biggest names (outside of Eric Hosmer) are both under team control through at least 2021. The speedy, 23-year-old Margot is one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball and carries a decent enough bat with him to make him a potential All-Star. Myers is far less adept defensively, but his offense should translate better in right than it did at first.
And then there is the team's actual leader in fWAR last year, left fielder José Pirela. Pirela discovered how to hit for power last year, earning a June call-up by terrorizing Triple-A pitchers with a .304 isolated slugging. Over half a major-league season, Pirela posted a highly impressive .288/.347/.490 line and played a pretty good left field. He has the ability to fill in at second if needed, which might be necessary, depending on how Carlos Asuaje progresses.
The Padres have plenty of backups for Margot, Myers, and Pirela, though most of them demonstrate more tools than honed skills at this point. The highly intriguing Franchy Cordero is the most likely to stick, flashing speed, pop, and range. Travis Jankowski and Hunter Renfroe have speed and pop, respectively, but they're both incomplete at this point and not as young.
In the infield, veterans Freddy Galvis and Chase Headley are stopgaps more than permanent solutions (neither is under contract beyond 2018). However, the Padres of course made a high-profile move to fill first base long-term, signing Eric Hosmer for a ludicrous eight years and $144 million.
The Hosmer acquisition is controversial because, well, he's not that good. He alternates league-average seasons with replacement-level ones at the plate, and despite his reputation, he's a bad defender at the easiest defensive position. He's not at all worth the money he's getting.
For the time being though, ignoring finances, Hosmer is good enough for this team. He probably makes the Padres better for the next three years or so. If they really become a borderline playoff team soon, then it's better to have a useful first baseman in place now rather than wishing they had one a year or two down the line.
The pitching staff lacks the excitement or big money of the other areas of the team, but it's not short on simple competence. Clayton Richard and Luis Perdomo are perfectly capable starters, and Perdomo is still young enough to get better. If he can lower his walk and home run rates, Dinelson Lamet has a higher upside thanks to a tough fastball-slider combo. After him are a handful of serviceable but underwhelming options.
In relief, the Padres actually look solid, at least at the top: Brad Hand, worth 3.2 fWAR over the past two seasons, is still one of the best relievers in the game. Craig Stammen returned to the majors last year and did admirably, posting a 3.14 ERA. Kirby Yates struck out nearly 40 percent of the batters he faced after being claimed off waivers from the Angels in April. And 24-year-old Phil Maton, if you believe his minor league numbers, shouldn't allow so many homers this year and could be pretty good.
The Padres certainly aren't good yet, but they have pieces in place to get them there in a short while. For now, they could be fairly entertaining.
San Francisco Giants
In response to an aging and expensive roster and a weak farm system, the Giants decided to get older and more expensive and further weaken their farm.
Putting it that way is probably a bit unfair. It's actually kind of admirable that Brian Sabean and company are trying to win one more time while they still conceivably have the pieces to compete. And it actually looks smart: The team is going to be old and bad soon anyway; will being marginally younger when it gets that way be that valuable? Especially when having an especially farm might not hurt that much? Especially when you consider the Giants' resources. Why not go all-in?
Of course, "all-in" might be a bit hyperbolic, considering the Giants' biggest additions (Austin Jackson, Evan Longoria, and Andrew McCutchen) aren't that impressive. Those three project to provide a cumulative 5.5 wins.
Let's say the team isn't ravaged as much by injuries this year. They'll win a lot more games than the 64 they won last season, as there are a lot of talented players left over from the team that won 87 in 2016. Is that a playoff team, or should Sabean have done more?
I'm inclined to think the latter. The outfield situation is not too promising at all, with Jackson and Hunter Pence projected for 1.5 wins between them, no clear fourth option, each of the expected starters 31 or older, and no clear backup in place should one of the veterans have to miss time due to injury or inability. Astoundingly, they have decided to keep paying Pablo Sandoval to play baseball when an actual backup infielder can be found for a comparable price on the scrap heap.
After Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija, the rotation could be shaky. Johnny Cueto lost his command last season and suffered for it, allowing the highest hit-hard rate of his career and posting his highest ERA and xFIP since 2009. Chris Stratton looked totally passable in 13 appearances but was equally uninspiring. In his first full MLB season, Ty Blach walked a tenth of the batters he faced and doesn't really have the batted-ball profile that suggests he can go too far with that; unless he induces more grounders, he has a fifth starter ceiling. A washed-up Derek Holland and a 24-year-old Tyler Beede are in reserve.
These are not team-killing problems, but they're significant enough to matter in a postseason race, especially with so many old players elsewhere on the roster. Some more injuries could be all it takes to keep San Francisco out of the playoffs again. And that's if they're in a position to make it in the first place.
Putting it that way is probably a bit unfair. It's actually kind of admirable that Brian Sabean and company are trying to win one more time while they still conceivably have the pieces to compete. And it actually looks smart: The team is going to be old and bad soon anyway; will being marginally younger when it gets that way be that valuable? Especially when having an especially farm might not hurt that much? Especially when you consider the Giants' resources. Why not go all-in?
Of course, "all-in" might be a bit hyperbolic, considering the Giants' biggest additions (Austin Jackson, Evan Longoria, and Andrew McCutchen) aren't that impressive. Those three project to provide a cumulative 5.5 wins.
Let's say the team isn't ravaged as much by injuries this year. They'll win a lot more games than the 64 they won last season, as there are a lot of talented players left over from the team that won 87 in 2016. Is that a playoff team, or should Sabean have done more?
I'm inclined to think the latter. The outfield situation is not too promising at all, with Jackson and Hunter Pence projected for 1.5 wins between them, no clear fourth option, each of the expected starters 31 or older, and no clear backup in place should one of the veterans have to miss time due to injury or inability. Astoundingly, they have decided to keep paying Pablo Sandoval to play baseball when an actual backup infielder can be found for a comparable price on the scrap heap.
After Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija, the rotation could be shaky. Johnny Cueto lost his command last season and suffered for it, allowing the highest hit-hard rate of his career and posting his highest ERA and xFIP since 2009. Chris Stratton looked totally passable in 13 appearances but was equally uninspiring. In his first full MLB season, Ty Blach walked a tenth of the batters he faced and doesn't really have the batted-ball profile that suggests he can go too far with that; unless he induces more grounders, he has a fifth starter ceiling. A washed-up Derek Holland and a 24-year-old Tyler Beede are in reserve.
These are not team-killing problems, but they're significant enough to matter in a postseason race, especially with so many old players elsewhere on the roster. Some more injuries could be all it takes to keep San Francisco out of the playoffs again. And that's if they're in a position to make it in the first place.
* * *
Next: The American League, starting with the East.
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