With the Senior Circuit out of the way, we turn our attention to the American League, beginning with the East.
Boston Red Sox
After winning their second consecutive division title, the Red Sox had a somewhat underwhelming offseason. Of course, one of the top teams in baseball doesn't need that much tweaking, and signing the guy who led the sport in slugging percentage is a pretty good tweak to make.
Still, this roster is not without imperfections, mainly offensively. By isolated slugging, only the Pirates and Giants hit for less power. The Sox ranked in the bottom third of the league in wRC+.
Say J.D. Martinez is as great as he was in Detroit and Arizona; say Mookie Betts gets some BABIP help; say Dustin Pedroia hits a little better than he did last year. Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley might have peaked offensively two years ago. Mitch Moreland still has hit at or above the league average twice in his six career full seasons. Hanley Ramírez is a 34-year-old with no legs and who probably isn't good anymore, even if you think that he, like Betts, should post a better BABIP. Christian Vásquez and Sandy León are not inspiring any horror in opposing pitchers.
Martinez and Betts could be the only big bats in the Boston lineup. There's little wrong with having a lot of average hitters; it's certainly better than having bad ones, and with a top pitching staff, you can do quite well without the best lineup in baseball. When the Yankees got significantly better this offseason though, The Red Sox might have not positioned themselves well enough to win the East a third straight time.
Still, this roster is not without imperfections, mainly offensively. By isolated slugging, only the Pirates and Giants hit for less power. The Sox ranked in the bottom third of the league in wRC+.
Say J.D. Martinez is as great as he was in Detroit and Arizona; say Mookie Betts gets some BABIP help; say Dustin Pedroia hits a little better than he did last year. Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley might have peaked offensively two years ago. Mitch Moreland still has hit at or above the league average twice in his six career full seasons. Hanley Ramírez is a 34-year-old with no legs and who probably isn't good anymore, even if you think that he, like Betts, should post a better BABIP. Christian Vásquez and Sandy León are not inspiring any horror in opposing pitchers.
Martinez and Betts could be the only big bats in the Boston lineup. There's little wrong with having a lot of average hitters; it's certainly better than having bad ones, and with a top pitching staff, you can do quite well without the best lineup in baseball. When the Yankees got significantly better this offseason though, The Red Sox might have not positioned themselves well enough to win the East a third straight time.
New York Yankees
The Yankees, as great as they were last season, might have underperformed.
New York's actual record came 10 games short of their Pythagorean record and 11 short of their BaseRuns record, the second-largest difference in the former and the largest in the latter. Despite having the third-best position players and second-best pitchers by fWAR, they finished with the eighth-best record.
As was the case with the Cardinals, the reason for this was relatively poor performance in important situations, especially from the pitchers. In low- and medium-leverage spots, the Yankees had the fourth-best ERA (3.19) and third-best xFIP (3.75) compared to the 16th-best ERA (9.79) and 23rd-best xFIP (4.53) in high-leverage spots. As previously covered, this probably will not happen again – which is very bad news for the rest of the American League.
Worse news: The Yankees are actually better. Neil Walker is a decent two-way player and therefore a solid starting second baseman; and Brandon Drury was a smart pickup to fill third in case Miguel Andújar isn't quite –
Oh, you don't care?
You just want to see Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge hit dingers?
Fiiiiiiine.
Yeah, Walker and Drury were good moves to upgrade the infield, and players like Greg Bird and Ronald Torreyes have probably gotten better over the winter, and the Yankees have the majors' best bullpen, and whatever. Nobody is watching the Yankees for Walker and Torreyes and David Robertson.
They're watching them for Stanton and Judge (and to a lesser extent Gary Sánchez, who can also hit pretty well when he feels like it). New York has a reigning MVP and a reigning MVP runner-up, two monsters in the middle of the order who will undoubtedly inspire Maris-Mantle comparisons as they purge the world of baseballs this summer.
Even if adding Stanton doesn't give the Yankees the best lineup in the game, they won't be too far off. Combine that with one of the league's best pitching staffs, and you have the decided favorites in the East.
New York's actual record came 10 games short of their Pythagorean record and 11 short of their BaseRuns record, the second-largest difference in the former and the largest in the latter. Despite having the third-best position players and second-best pitchers by fWAR, they finished with the eighth-best record.
As was the case with the Cardinals, the reason for this was relatively poor performance in important situations, especially from the pitchers. In low- and medium-leverage spots, the Yankees had the fourth-best ERA (3.19) and third-best xFIP (3.75) compared to the 16th-best ERA (9.79) and 23rd-best xFIP (4.53) in high-leverage spots. As previously covered, this probably will not happen again – which is very bad news for the rest of the American League.
Worse news: The Yankees are actually better. Neil Walker is a decent two-way player and therefore a solid starting second baseman; and Brandon Drury was a smart pickup to fill third in case Miguel Andújar isn't quite –
Oh, you don't care?
You just want to see Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge hit dingers?
Fiiiiiiine.
Yeah, Walker and Drury were good moves to upgrade the infield, and players like Greg Bird and Ronald Torreyes have probably gotten better over the winter, and the Yankees have the majors' best bullpen, and whatever. Nobody is watching the Yankees for Walker and Torreyes and David Robertson.
They're watching them for Stanton and Judge (and to a lesser extent Gary Sánchez, who can also hit pretty well when he feels like it). New York has a reigning MVP and a reigning MVP runner-up, two monsters in the middle of the order who will undoubtedly inspire Maris-Mantle comparisons as they purge the world of baseballs this summer.
Even if adding Stanton doesn't give the Yankees the best lineup in the game, they won't be too far off. Combine that with one of the league's best pitching staffs, and you have the decided favorites in the East.
Tampa Bay Rays
There is once again lots of reshuffling in St. Petersburg. Steven Sousa is gone. Corey Dickerson is gone. Logan Morrison is gone. Alex Cobb (probably) isn't coming back. Tim Beckham was traded to a division rival midyear. Jake Odorizzi was shipped to Minnesota. The best player in franchise history, Evan Longoria, is now a Giant.
Despite the fact that Rays fans somehow have to get excited by post-prime Carlos Gómez and Denard Span, never-in-his-prime Joey Wendle, post-injury Matt Duffy (remember that trade?), and whatever no-name pitchers will fill in for Brent Honeywell and José De León, they won't necessarily have that bad a team to watch. PECOTA has Tampa Bay going 83-79. FanGraphs has them going 78-84. I lean more toward the latter projection, but either way: This looks much more like a .500 team than you might immediately think when you look at he transactions they made this winter.
To be clear: The Rays are not without significant flaws. There are no major threats in the lineup so much as a number of hitters that have the capability to creep above average. First base, occupied by C.J. Cron and Brad Miller, could be bad. Second base, with Wendle and Daniel Robertson, could be bad. So could left field, where Span and Mallex Smith are expected to split time. Without a big bat or two, I feel like this offense's ceiling isn't very high. The only position player left on the roster with apparent potential better than average is Kevin Kiermaier, whose a far better fielder than hitter. That's incredibly underwhelming.
Now, the pitching staff? We might have something here. Even with the losses of Honeywell and De León, the Rays have a number of options in the rotation. Chris Archer is obviously great. Assuming the improvement Blake Snell made in the second half (4.5-percent strikeout rate increase, 6.5-percent walk rate decrease, 105-point opposing OPS decrease) was legit, he could prove quite valuable. After an impressive rookie year, Jake Faria looks like he could be pretty effective too.
While none of the other starting options are very impressive on their own, they each have their merits. Nathan Eovaldi, essentially paid to rehab last season, is back and apparently throwing with the velocity that he had before Tommy John surgery. Matt Andriese took a step back in 2017 but was better than replacement level; he's shown the the ability to at least eat innings. Anthony Banda, acquired from Arizona, had a bad ERA last year but was good in the minors and has some peripheral stats that suggest usefulness. Twenty-four-year-old Yonny Chirinos (yet to debut in the majors) has a history of demonstrating excellent command and allowing few home runs. He could come up and contribute.
It's also worth noting that if most of the above starters don't have much to offer, it doesn't matter as much, since Kevin Cash wants to use a four-man rotation followed by a "bullpen day." It's an interesting strategy the Rays can afford to try – both because of their poor playoff odds and because they have enough okay relievers for it to conceivably work. Any of the pitchers just mentioned could work as a reliever. Of those already doing so, Alex Colomé and Dan Jennings lead the way. Andrew Kettredge, Chaz Roe, and Sergio Romo all posted sub-2.00 ERAs (in admittedly somewhat limited samples) last year, and other pitchers could contribute too. I'd rather have the bullpen of any other team in the division, but this one looks competent enough.
Will this team contend for a playoff spot? If they do, it will only be for the second Wild Card. Will they be watchable for the time being? Yes.
Despite the fact that Rays fans somehow have to get excited by post-prime Carlos Gómez and Denard Span, never-in-his-prime Joey Wendle, post-injury Matt Duffy (remember that trade?), and whatever no-name pitchers will fill in for Brent Honeywell and José De León, they won't necessarily have that bad a team to watch. PECOTA has Tampa Bay going 83-79. FanGraphs has them going 78-84. I lean more toward the latter projection, but either way: This looks much more like a .500 team than you might immediately think when you look at he transactions they made this winter.
To be clear: The Rays are not without significant flaws. There are no major threats in the lineup so much as a number of hitters that have the capability to creep above average. First base, occupied by C.J. Cron and Brad Miller, could be bad. Second base, with Wendle and Daniel Robertson, could be bad. So could left field, where Span and Mallex Smith are expected to split time. Without a big bat or two, I feel like this offense's ceiling isn't very high. The only position player left on the roster with apparent potential better than average is Kevin Kiermaier, whose a far better fielder than hitter. That's incredibly underwhelming.
Now, the pitching staff? We might have something here. Even with the losses of Honeywell and De León, the Rays have a number of options in the rotation. Chris Archer is obviously great. Assuming the improvement Blake Snell made in the second half (4.5-percent strikeout rate increase, 6.5-percent walk rate decrease, 105-point opposing OPS decrease) was legit, he could prove quite valuable. After an impressive rookie year, Jake Faria looks like he could be pretty effective too.
While none of the other starting options are very impressive on their own, they each have their merits. Nathan Eovaldi, essentially paid to rehab last season, is back and apparently throwing with the velocity that he had before Tommy John surgery. Matt Andriese took a step back in 2017 but was better than replacement level; he's shown the the ability to at least eat innings. Anthony Banda, acquired from Arizona, had a bad ERA last year but was good in the minors and has some peripheral stats that suggest usefulness. Twenty-four-year-old Yonny Chirinos (yet to debut in the majors) has a history of demonstrating excellent command and allowing few home runs. He could come up and contribute.
It's also worth noting that if most of the above starters don't have much to offer, it doesn't matter as much, since Kevin Cash wants to use a four-man rotation followed by a "bullpen day." It's an interesting strategy the Rays can afford to try – both because of their poor playoff odds and because they have enough okay relievers for it to conceivably work. Any of the pitchers just mentioned could work as a reliever. Of those already doing so, Alex Colomé and Dan Jennings lead the way. Andrew Kettredge, Chaz Roe, and Sergio Romo all posted sub-2.00 ERAs (in admittedly somewhat limited samples) last year, and other pitchers could contribute too. I'd rather have the bullpen of any other team in the division, but this one looks competent enough.
Will this team contend for a playoff spot? If they do, it will only be for the second Wild Card. Will they be watchable for the time being? Yes.
Toronto Blue Jays
It was fun, but the Blue Jays' playoff tenure lasted just two years before aging, injuries, and one big departure took the Jays from the ALCS to fourth place in the East.
Since it may feel like a long while ago, it's worth remembering that in 2015, the Jays had the majors' best offense by far. They led baseball in runs by 127; 127 runs fewer than the second-place Yankees would have put a team in 27th, right between the 63-win Phillies and 64-win Reds. Until the 2017 Astros came along, Toronto had the third-best (relative to their peers) offense of the 21st century. They smacked the crap out of the ball.
The 2016 offense did pretty well, scoring the sixth-most runs in the majors and hitting tons of homers, but historic it was not.
Then, Edwin Encarnación's departure for Cleveland left a massive, parrot-toting hole in the heart of the order. Kendrys Morales was signed to make up for the loss but was wholly inadequate. Darwin Barney, never an offensive juggernaut, barely managed an OPS north of .600 but had to play 129 games thanks to injuries around the infield. Ryan Goins, mostly filling in at short, also posed no threat to opposing pitchers. Troy Tulowitzki wasn't healthy often, and when he was, he wasn't very useful either; his 66 wRC+ was even worse than Goins'. Russell Martin seemed to fight off the decline that killed his 2016 campaign, but he spent too much time on the Disabled List to matter. José Bautista had no such fortune, his line plummeting to an ugly .203/.308/.366 in what may turn out to be his final big-league season.
Various spare parts – Luke Maile, Miguel Montero, Chris Coghlan, Rob Refsnyder, Darrell Ceciliani, and more – tried to contribute something, but most of them could only supply a pulse. Even as Josh Donaldson continued to mash, as Justin Smoak hit so well he made the All-Star Game, and as Ezequiel Carrera found success hitting fewer ground balls, the Blue Jays had a simply bad offense. No American League team scored fewer runs.
Considering that aging and injuries are what killed the Blue Jays' 2017, you might not have tremendous faith in their lineup for 2018. Tulowitzki already has you covered for the latter; he probably would have suffered from the former, too. Meanwhile, Martin and Morales remain.
Still: Things aren't all bad. Donaldson should still rake, and Smoak might have finally figured things out. Thirty-seven-year-old (happy birthday?) Curtis Granderson and soon-to-be-35-year-old Steve Pearce are expected to split time in left. Granderson has stayed good for a long while; Pearce has been degrees of useful for a little while less and was decidedly not useful to the Jays last season. Whether they still have enough for the platoon to work is yet to be seen, but for all the damage each will do defensively, it's admittedly not a bad idea.
Randal Grichuk enters the mix, and as some readers might note, he is neither old, injury-prone, nor bad. As underwhelming as his arrival might seem (his hitting might not play in right), he presents an improvement. Additionally, Yangervis Solarte is a good utility man who should prevent the team from another catastrophic season of cycling through infielders with no bats.
Put it together, and you at least have an average offense, which is much better than it was a year prior.
You may have noticed no mention has been given of Toronto's pitching. Considering it was a big reason for their two postseason runs and could be pretty decent this year, it's probably worth mentioning.
Marcus Stroman and J.A. Happ had good 2017 seasons, posting ERAs of 3.09 and 3.53, respectively. The rest of the rotation was not as effective, with Marco Estrada just sneaking under the 5.00 ERA threshold, Joe Biagini failing to turn good peripherals into good results, and nobody else doing anything worth mentioning. However, Jaime García and a returning, hopefully blister-less, Aaron Sanchez should provide solid reinforcements.
Additionally, the Jays got a solid year out of their bullpen. While two of its leaders, Dominic Leone and Joe Smith, are gone, it's not without potentially effective pitchers. Roberto Osuna is obviously their best relief arm, mowing down hitters with a wide arsenal of pitches and hardly walking anyone. Distrusting a fly ball pitcher like Ryan Tepera is understandable, but he made it work thanks to a high pop-up rate and a tight, snapping sinker and cutter. I'm unsure about Danny Barnes, but he did just as well as Tepera with a similar profile. Aaron Loup got his home run problem under control last year and turned in a pretty good season himself. If Tim Mayza does the same, he could be quite the pitcher. As bad as Biagini was as a starter, he's shown some ability out of the pen.
There's the potential here for a reliable rotation and a very good bullpen. Throw in a healthy, respectable lineup, and Jays might have an outside shot at the postseason. Keep an eye on them.
Since it may feel like a long while ago, it's worth remembering that in 2015, the Jays had the majors' best offense by far. They led baseball in runs by 127; 127 runs fewer than the second-place Yankees would have put a team in 27th, right between the 63-win Phillies and 64-win Reds. Until the 2017 Astros came along, Toronto had the third-best (relative to their peers) offense of the 21st century. They smacked the crap out of the ball.
The 2016 offense did pretty well, scoring the sixth-most runs in the majors and hitting tons of homers, but historic it was not.
Then, Edwin Encarnación's departure for Cleveland left a massive, parrot-toting hole in the heart of the order. Kendrys Morales was signed to make up for the loss but was wholly inadequate. Darwin Barney, never an offensive juggernaut, barely managed an OPS north of .600 but had to play 129 games thanks to injuries around the infield. Ryan Goins, mostly filling in at short, also posed no threat to opposing pitchers. Troy Tulowitzki wasn't healthy often, and when he was, he wasn't very useful either; his 66 wRC+ was even worse than Goins'. Russell Martin seemed to fight off the decline that killed his 2016 campaign, but he spent too much time on the Disabled List to matter. José Bautista had no such fortune, his line plummeting to an ugly .203/.308/.366 in what may turn out to be his final big-league season.
Various spare parts – Luke Maile, Miguel Montero, Chris Coghlan, Rob Refsnyder, Darrell Ceciliani, and more – tried to contribute something, but most of them could only supply a pulse. Even as Josh Donaldson continued to mash, as Justin Smoak hit so well he made the All-Star Game, and as Ezequiel Carrera found success hitting fewer ground balls, the Blue Jays had a simply bad offense. No American League team scored fewer runs.
Considering that aging and injuries are what killed the Blue Jays' 2017, you might not have tremendous faith in their lineup for 2018. Tulowitzki already has you covered for the latter; he probably would have suffered from the former, too. Meanwhile, Martin and Morales remain.
Still: Things aren't all bad. Donaldson should still rake, and Smoak might have finally figured things out. Thirty-seven-year-old (happy birthday?) Curtis Granderson and soon-to-be-35-year-old Steve Pearce are expected to split time in left. Granderson has stayed good for a long while; Pearce has been degrees of useful for a little while less and was decidedly not useful to the Jays last season. Whether they still have enough for the platoon to work is yet to be seen, but for all the damage each will do defensively, it's admittedly not a bad idea.
Randal Grichuk enters the mix, and as some readers might note, he is neither old, injury-prone, nor bad. As underwhelming as his arrival might seem (his hitting might not play in right), he presents an improvement. Additionally, Yangervis Solarte is a good utility man who should prevent the team from another catastrophic season of cycling through infielders with no bats.
Put it together, and you at least have an average offense, which is much better than it was a year prior.
You may have noticed no mention has been given of Toronto's pitching. Considering it was a big reason for their two postseason runs and could be pretty decent this year, it's probably worth mentioning.
Marcus Stroman and J.A. Happ had good 2017 seasons, posting ERAs of 3.09 and 3.53, respectively. The rest of the rotation was not as effective, with Marco Estrada just sneaking under the 5.00 ERA threshold, Joe Biagini failing to turn good peripherals into good results, and nobody else doing anything worth mentioning. However, Jaime García and a returning, hopefully blister-less, Aaron Sanchez should provide solid reinforcements.
Additionally, the Jays got a solid year out of their bullpen. While two of its leaders, Dominic Leone and Joe Smith, are gone, it's not without potentially effective pitchers. Roberto Osuna is obviously their best relief arm, mowing down hitters with a wide arsenal of pitches and hardly walking anyone. Distrusting a fly ball pitcher like Ryan Tepera is understandable, but he made it work thanks to a high pop-up rate and a tight, snapping sinker and cutter. I'm unsure about Danny Barnes, but he did just as well as Tepera with a similar profile. Aaron Loup got his home run problem under control last year and turned in a pretty good season himself. If Tim Mayza does the same, he could be quite the pitcher. As bad as Biagini was as a starter, he's shown some ability out of the pen.
There's the potential here for a reliable rotation and a very good bullpen. Throw in a healthy, respectable lineup, and Jays might have an outside shot at the postseason. Keep an eye on them.
Baltimore Orioles
Despite being one of the most consistently good teams in baseball since 2012, the O's rotations have consistently been some of the worst in baseball. Only the Rockies and Twins' starters have put up worse ERAs than Baltimore's over that stretch.
The 2017 starters had the majors' worst ERA, sixth-worst xFIP, fifth-worst SIERA, and ninth-worst DRA. By fWAR, only three regular starters (Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, Wade Miley) were worth more than a replacment; by bWAR, only two (Bundy, Gausman) were.
The changes were lateral and limited only to the back end: Miley is gone, and in his place is Andrew Cashner, a comparably unexciting pitcher. Jeremy Hellickson and Ubadlo Jiménez are gone. Gabriel Ynoa, who was okay in four September starts last year, will take on a more regular role (assuming his recent injury was indeed not that bad). Mike Wright, who gave up a ton of home runs as a reliever last year and never struck out many hitters as a starter before that, will move back to the rotation. It's hard to see much improvement.
Of course, the Orioles got by for years on great relief pitching and good position players. That wasn't the case last season, however, and it probably won't be this season.
The O's bullpen was only good instead of elite last year. After posting the third-best bullpen ERA over the previous five seasons, in 2018 it ranked 12th.
If the relief corps improves again, it still won't be enough to make up for one of the majors' worst rotations. Richard Bleier, Brad Brach, Zach Britton, Mychal Givens, Donnie Hart, and Darren O'Day make for a pretty good group. They can't solve everything though, and if injuries knock one (or more) of them out, there aren't proper replacements.
And the position players? Offensively, they scored the 16th-most runs in baseball, which isn't too bad but isn't enough to compensate for bad pitching in a difficult division. On defense though, the Orioles ranked in the bottom 10 in Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating, and Revised Zone Rating, and they just missed the bottom 10 in Defensive Efficiency. Mediocre hitting and bad fielding generally means a below-average starting nine. (The most meaningful addition was Colby Rasmus, by the way, so don't expect improvement.)
This was a bad baseball team in 2017, and it will be a bad one in 2018. If Dan Duquette is smart – and while I don't have a particularly strong opinion on him, I'm sure many O's fans would happily tell me he's not smart – Manny Machado will be traded before July 31, as he won't have any purpose on a team like this, except as trade bait. It'll be a long summer in Baltimore.
The O's bullpen was only good instead of elite last year. After posting the third-best bullpen ERA over the previous five seasons, in 2018 it ranked 12th.
If the relief corps improves again, it still won't be enough to make up for one of the majors' worst rotations. Richard Bleier, Brad Brach, Zach Britton, Mychal Givens, Donnie Hart, and Darren O'Day make for a pretty good group. They can't solve everything though, and if injuries knock one (or more) of them out, there aren't proper replacements.
And the position players? Offensively, they scored the 16th-most runs in baseball, which isn't too bad but isn't enough to compensate for bad pitching in a difficult division. On defense though, the Orioles ranked in the bottom 10 in Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating, and Revised Zone Rating, and they just missed the bottom 10 in Defensive Efficiency. Mediocre hitting and bad fielding generally means a below-average starting nine. (The most meaningful addition was Colby Rasmus, by the way, so don't expect improvement.)
This was a bad baseball team in 2017, and it will be a bad one in 2018. If Dan Duquette is smart – and while I don't have a particularly strong opinion on him, I'm sure many O's fans would happily tell me he's not smart – Manny Machado will be traded before July 31, as he won't have any purpose on a team like this, except as trade bait. It'll be a long summer in Baltimore.
* * *
Next: The Central, featuring your Minnesota Twins.
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