Today's post is on the AL Central, which means we finally can talk about the most important team in baseball, the Twins.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians have won so much over the past two seasons by following a simple process:
Step 1: Have Great Hitting
Since 2016, Cleveland ranks third in baseball in overall, park-adjusted offense. Last year, they scored the sixth-most runs of anyone. This is a potent offense that stacks up with any other in the league.
The Indians don't strike out that much, they take plenty of walks, and they take extra bases. Only the Red Sox also finished in the top 10 in both strikeout and walk rates; and the Red Sox couldn't hit for power: they ranked 28th in isolated slugging, compared to fifth for the Indians. Considering that the three parts of hitting are making contact, only swinging at what you can hit, and hitting the ball hard when you do make contact, that's a pretty good profile.
The most pressing question with this offense going into 2018 is how well it will cope with the departure of Carlos Santana, the disciplined and intimidating first baseman, to Philadelphia. In his place is Yonder Alonso, who made last year's All-Star Game after reworking his swing to generate more power and loft. His post-trade stint with the Mariners was not as successful it was with the A's, but it's reasonable to expect he'll be an above-average hitter on a team-friendly contract. They should be fine.
Interestingly, the team's best two position players had very different paths to the majors.
Francisco Lindor, winner of a Gold Glove (and the Platinum Glove) two seasons ago and a Silver Slugger last season, was among the most renowned a prospects in the game, ranking 13th or better three times on MLB.com's rankings after being drafted eighth overall in 2011. When Lindor came up in 2015, he finished second to fellow Puerto Rican shortstop Carlos Correa. He was a prototypical stud in the minors who turned into a stud in the majors.
José Ramírez, though, had a path most atypical to stardom. Signed for $50,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2009, his 5-foot-9-inch frame impressed no one. It wasn't until 2012, after demolishing Class-A pitching, that he snuck into MLB.com's organizational top 20. A year later, he did the same to Double-A and earned a September call-up. Still, the diminutive infielder didn't stick at the major-league level until much later. He found a frequent spot on Carson Cistulli's "Fringe Five," but without power, he couldn't produce despite elite contact skills, good plate discipline, and defensive versatility.
Then in 2016, Ramírez, out of options, kept his spot on the active roster with a good spring and proceeded to light up the majors with an adjusted approach. Like some before and many since, Ramírez found success thanks to an increased launch angle. He didn't hit that many fly balls in 2016, but his ground ball rate plummeted from 48 percent to 41 percent, with the difference being represented by a spike in line drives. To put it another way: While he still wasn't very strong, he hit more home runs and increased his average by changing his profile from that of Peter Bourjos to that of Mike Trout. At the same time, he didn't stop making contact or walking, and finished the year slashing .312/.363/.462.
In 2017, Lindor and Ramírez got even better at the plate by both hitting more balls in the air and Ramírez hitting them harder, posting nearly identical ground ball rates, hit-hard rates, and exit velocities. There were some differences that made Ramírez a better hitter, but both finished in the top five of American League MVP voting thanks to their tremendous two-way play. The 24-year-old shortstop and 25-year-old third baseman are each under club control until 2022 as well, so expect Cleveland to have these two in the lineup for a long while.
Step 2: Have Great Defense
While not as great as the Tribe's hitting, their glove work is also among the game's best. Lindor and Ramírez, as mentioned, are effective defenders. Should he stay healthy, Jason Kipnis is old but functional. Should he get hurt, Ramírez can slide over to second with two capable fill-ins at third in Yandy Díaz and Giovany Urshela. Behind the plate, meanwhile, is a set of catchers who finished sixth in baseball in framing value last season. There are also far worse center fielders than the rangy 25-year-old Bradley Zimmer, who is supported by adequate corner outfielders in Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Brandon Guyer. I wonder about Alonso's defensive ability, but he's the only significant concern in the field.
Step 3: Have Great Pitching
This is where the Indians make themselves a top team.
We'll begin with the rotation, which finished second in baseball in ERA, first in FIP and xFIP, first in SIERA, first in DRA, first in fWAR, and first in bWAR. They had the highest strikeout rate, the lowest walk rate, the second-lowest home runs per nine innings rate, and the second-lowest WHIP. The Indians' starters were so good, they made you question whether you really meant it when you called other things "elite." They were the real thing.
Corey Kluber was again one of the two best pitchers in the American League, and one of the five best in all of baseball. (If you need reminding, here are Kluber's devastating slurve and freaky two-seamer, two of my favorite pitches in the game.) Seemingly overlooked for his lack of hardware or postseason track record, Carlos Corrasco turned in his best season in 2018, striking out a career-high 226 batters and walking just 46 over 200 innings. While Kluber won the Cy Young, Carrasco finished a respectable fourth in voting.
Trevor Bauer had his best year as well, setting career bests in strikeout and walk rates. When Danny Salazar (another great pitcher) missed time, the long-locked Mike Clevinger and the dependable Josh Tomlin were as good as you can get out of the back of a rotation: Clevinger got plenty of K's, and Tomlin had the best command of any starter in baseball.
Not to be forgotten is that Cleveland is home to a top bullpen, as well. Cody Allen, Andrew Miller, Bryan Shaw, and company had the lowest relief ERA in baseball by 25 points. Not to run you through alphabet soup again, but their FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and total bWAR were all the best in the game.
The whole staff was loaded from top to bottom – historically so. No pitching staff on record was better by fWAR than that of the 2017 Indians. Almost everyone is back for 2018, too. The hitters of the American League surely tremble in fear, as they know they are hopeless against such talented hurlers.
No other team in the Central has a shot at the division title, and it's because of this unit.
We'll begin with the rotation, which finished second in baseball in ERA, first in FIP and xFIP, first in SIERA, first in DRA, first in fWAR, and first in bWAR. They had the highest strikeout rate, the lowest walk rate, the second-lowest home runs per nine innings rate, and the second-lowest WHIP. The Indians' starters were so good, they made you question whether you really meant it when you called other things "elite." They were the real thing.
Corey Kluber was again one of the two best pitchers in the American League, and one of the five best in all of baseball. (If you need reminding, here are Kluber's devastating slurve and freaky two-seamer, two of my favorite pitches in the game.) Seemingly overlooked for his lack of hardware or postseason track record, Carlos Corrasco turned in his best season in 2018, striking out a career-high 226 batters and walking just 46 over 200 innings. While Kluber won the Cy Young, Carrasco finished a respectable fourth in voting.
Trevor Bauer had his best year as well, setting career bests in strikeout and walk rates. When Danny Salazar (another great pitcher) missed time, the long-locked Mike Clevinger and the dependable Josh Tomlin were as good as you can get out of the back of a rotation: Clevinger got plenty of K's, and Tomlin had the best command of any starter in baseball.
Not to be forgotten is that Cleveland is home to a top bullpen, as well. Cody Allen, Andrew Miller, Bryan Shaw, and company had the lowest relief ERA in baseball by 25 points. Not to run you through alphabet soup again, but their FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and total bWAR were all the best in the game.
The whole staff was loaded from top to bottom – historically so. No pitching staff on record was better by fWAR than that of the 2017 Indians. Almost everyone is back for 2018, too. The hitters of the American League surely tremble in fear, as they know they are hopeless against such talented hurlers.
No other team in the Central has a shot at the division title, and it's because of this unit.
Minnesota Twins
After their team perhaps overperformed a little to win the second Wild Card last year, Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine made a series of smart, low-risk moves this winter. As a result, the Twins are in good shape to match or better 2017's surprising success.
To begin with, the Twins needed pitching, both in the rotation and in the bullpen.
The need for starting pitching was exacerbated by Ervin Santana needing middle finger surgery, prompting the trade for Jake Odorizzi and signing of Lance Lynn.
Odorizzi struggled with Tampa Bay last season, losing some command and paying by giving up more walks and home runs, but with two years of arbitration salaries and a previous track record of reliability, the small price of Class-A shortstop Jermaine Palacios was an easy one to pay.
Lynn, signed for just one year and $12 million, was not quite his former self in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, but he got results and finished the year with a 3.43 ERA. Even if he can't generate as many whiffs as he did before surgery, he's a good signing to upgrade a position of need at a low cost.
The Minnesota bullpen, meanwhile, looks much better with the arrivals of Zach Duke, Addison Reed, and Fernando Rodney. Rodney will close, and Reed should join Trevor Hildenberger as effective firemen. Taylor Rogers, meanwhile, dominates lefties and is passable enough against righties to contribute in a variety of situations. Behind them are a plethora of options: Alan Busenitz, Tyler Duffey, Tyler Kinley, Gabriel Moya, Ryan Pressly – while none are world-beaters, all of them (except Kinley, a Rule 5 Draft pick) have shown competence at the major-league level. The Twins have tons of depth here. (Phil Hughes and Trevor May could also pitch out of the pen later.)
The position player side was the team's strength last year, but they still nabbed Logan Morrison – once again, on the cheap – to give the offense a boost. Morrison is one of the newest converts to the Fly Ball Revolution (TM), turning his power into an asset by putting the ball into the air. Despite cooling off a bit in the second half, he still finished 11th among qualified hitters in isolated slugging. He should be a solid addition to the middle of the lineup.
That lineup, by the way, features the second-most valuable second baseman in baseball since 2014, the powerful Brian Dozier; a left fielder who learned plate discipline and turned himself into a legitimate offensive threat, the toolsy Eddie Rosario; a soon-to-be-35-year-old first baseman who refuses to stop hitting, the Hall of Fame hopeful Joe Mauer; and a defensive superstar and baserunning phenom who might be turning the corner offensively, the exhilarating Byron Buxton.
However, this is not a team without flaws.
The starting rotation only needed the additions of Odorizzi and Lynn because its best options weren't very good in the first place. José Berríos has an ace ceiling but hasn't quite reached it yet. While second-half Kyle Gibson was a solid pitcher, first-half Gibson was an abominable one, and career Gibson is an entirely mediocre one. Adalberto Mejía has yet to establish too impressive a floor and will start the season at Triple-A. Should Hughes be required to pitch meaningful innings, chances are good he will flounder. Neither Odorizzi nor Lynn can fix this rotation's issues.
The Twins have a surplus of left-handed hitting, which will hurt them against left-handed pitchers. By wRC+, the team was 4 percent better than average against righties last year and 4 percent worse against lefties. Max Kepler was especially inept, posting a 16 wRC+ versus southpaws. (Reminder: 100 is average.) As a team, their isolated slugging dropped almost 30 points. Adding the left-handed Morrison, whose OPS dropped 144 points against same-handed pitchers last season, can only make this problem worse.
And then there's the fact the team will be without its starting shortstop for half the year, and the likelihood its third baseman will be gone for some time too. This puts the left side of the infield in a bind. Eduardo Escobar is an inadequate fielder at shortstop. Ehire Adrianza is a very capable one but not a good enough hitter to play every day.
So, what are the alternatives? Erick Aybar is in camp, but he hasn't been a good defender in years. Fellow non-roster invitees Taylor Featherston and Gregorio Petit have limited or disappointing track records playing short at the major-league level. Former fifth-overall pick Nick Gordon was recently sent to minor-league camp. While he hit well in the spring and in Double-A last year, Gordon hasn't been in a Triple-A batter's box even once, and he has a disconcerting defensive reputation.
And these are just the bad options to fill in for Jorge Polanco. No reserve player can make up for Miguel Sanó's hitting. (I imagine quite a few can make up for his character.)
Even with these losses and deficiencies, the Twins will be Wild Card contenders again. With fortune and continued development of their young players, they can definitely make a second straight postseason appearance.
To begin with, the Twins needed pitching, both in the rotation and in the bullpen.
The need for starting pitching was exacerbated by Ervin Santana needing middle finger surgery, prompting the trade for Jake Odorizzi and signing of Lance Lynn.
Odorizzi struggled with Tampa Bay last season, losing some command and paying by giving up more walks and home runs, but with two years of arbitration salaries and a previous track record of reliability, the small price of Class-A shortstop Jermaine Palacios was an easy one to pay.
Lynn, signed for just one year and $12 million, was not quite his former self in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, but he got results and finished the year with a 3.43 ERA. Even if he can't generate as many whiffs as he did before surgery, he's a good signing to upgrade a position of need at a low cost.
The Minnesota bullpen, meanwhile, looks much better with the arrivals of Zach Duke, Addison Reed, and Fernando Rodney. Rodney will close, and Reed should join Trevor Hildenberger as effective firemen. Taylor Rogers, meanwhile, dominates lefties and is passable enough against righties to contribute in a variety of situations. Behind them are a plethora of options: Alan Busenitz, Tyler Duffey, Tyler Kinley, Gabriel Moya, Ryan Pressly – while none are world-beaters, all of them (except Kinley, a Rule 5 Draft pick) have shown competence at the major-league level. The Twins have tons of depth here. (Phil Hughes and Trevor May could also pitch out of the pen later.)
The position player side was the team's strength last year, but they still nabbed Logan Morrison – once again, on the cheap – to give the offense a boost. Morrison is one of the newest converts to the Fly Ball Revolution (TM), turning his power into an asset by putting the ball into the air. Despite cooling off a bit in the second half, he still finished 11th among qualified hitters in isolated slugging. He should be a solid addition to the middle of the lineup.
That lineup, by the way, features the second-most valuable second baseman in baseball since 2014, the powerful Brian Dozier; a left fielder who learned plate discipline and turned himself into a legitimate offensive threat, the toolsy Eddie Rosario; a soon-to-be-35-year-old first baseman who refuses to stop hitting, the Hall of Fame hopeful Joe Mauer; and a defensive superstar and baserunning phenom who might be turning the corner offensively, the exhilarating Byron Buxton.
However, this is not a team without flaws.
The starting rotation only needed the additions of Odorizzi and Lynn because its best options weren't very good in the first place. José Berríos has an ace ceiling but hasn't quite reached it yet. While second-half Kyle Gibson was a solid pitcher, first-half Gibson was an abominable one, and career Gibson is an entirely mediocre one. Adalberto Mejía has yet to establish too impressive a floor and will start the season at Triple-A. Should Hughes be required to pitch meaningful innings, chances are good he will flounder. Neither Odorizzi nor Lynn can fix this rotation's issues.
The Twins have a surplus of left-handed hitting, which will hurt them against left-handed pitchers. By wRC+, the team was 4 percent better than average against righties last year and 4 percent worse against lefties. Max Kepler was especially inept, posting a 16 wRC+ versus southpaws. (Reminder: 100 is average.) As a team, their isolated slugging dropped almost 30 points. Adding the left-handed Morrison, whose OPS dropped 144 points against same-handed pitchers last season, can only make this problem worse.
And then there's the fact the team will be without its starting shortstop for half the year, and the likelihood its third baseman will be gone for some time too. This puts the left side of the infield in a bind. Eduardo Escobar is an inadequate fielder at shortstop. Ehire Adrianza is a very capable one but not a good enough hitter to play every day.
So, what are the alternatives? Erick Aybar is in camp, but he hasn't been a good defender in years. Fellow non-roster invitees Taylor Featherston and Gregorio Petit have limited or disappointing track records playing short at the major-league level. Former fifth-overall pick Nick Gordon was recently sent to minor-league camp. While he hit well in the spring and in Double-A last year, Gordon hasn't been in a Triple-A batter's box even once, and he has a disconcerting defensive reputation.
And these are just the bad options to fill in for Jorge Polanco. No reserve player can make up for Miguel Sanó's hitting. (I imagine quite a few can make up for his character.)
Even with these losses and deficiencies, the Twins will be Wild Card contenders again. With fortune and continued development of their young players, they can definitely make a second straight postseason appearance.
Kansas City Royals
After a wild run where they had more seasons above .500 in four years than they did in the previous 22 years combined, the Royals have begun their descent back into the American League's lower class.
Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain's departures leave significant gaps in an already underwhelming-at-best Kansas City lineup. The team signed Lucas Duda and Jon Jay to fill in for them at first and in center, respectively, which is a bit like buying Dr. K because someone just bought the last two two-liters of Dr. Pepper at Kroger. I guess it'll get the job done for now, but we all know this isn't a permanent solution. (In this metaphor, the bottle the Californians bought will sit in their fridge long enough for it go go flat.)
What else does Ned Yost have with which to work? Does Alcides Escobar's 62 wRC+ impress anybody? How about a replacement-level Alex Gordon? Or maybe sub-replacement-level Cheslor Cuthbert, Paulo Orlando, and Jorge Soler? Between Duda, Jay, Whit Merrifield, Mike Moustakas, and Salvador Pérez, you have half an average major-league lineup. The other half is absolutely horrendous. (The Royals don't have elite defense and baserunning anymore, either, so you can't find more than marginal extra value there.)
As for the pitching: You could do worse, I suppose, but it's far from stellar. Danny Duffy is easily the best pitcher on staff, having posted his best season as a full-time starter last year. The other hurlers are mid-rotation spares like Jason Hammel, Nate Karns, and Ian Kennedy. Walk-repellent 25-year-olds Jakob Junis and Eric Skoglund are the only representatives of youth in this rotation.
By the way, remember when the Royals had elite relief pitching? That was fun while it lasted, but it's long gone at this point. The team's bullpen was fairly middle-of-the-pack last season, but it's now down to Kelvin Herrera and Brandon Maurer as trustworthy options, with maybe some help from Justin Grimm (who struggled last year) and Kevin McCarthy (who is allergic to strikeouts). As a result, Kansas City's bullpen is actually projected as the worst in the game by FanGraphs.
The Royals are flat-out bad this year. Maybe not Tigers or Marlins bad, but they're certainly a team with no realistic shot at the postseason.
Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain's departures leave significant gaps in an already underwhelming-at-best Kansas City lineup. The team signed Lucas Duda and Jon Jay to fill in for them at first and in center, respectively, which is a bit like buying Dr. K because someone just bought the last two two-liters of Dr. Pepper at Kroger. I guess it'll get the job done for now, but we all know this isn't a permanent solution. (In this metaphor, the bottle the Californians bought will sit in their fridge long enough for it go go flat.)
What else does Ned Yost have with which to work? Does Alcides Escobar's 62 wRC+ impress anybody? How about a replacement-level Alex Gordon? Or maybe sub-replacement-level Cheslor Cuthbert, Paulo Orlando, and Jorge Soler? Between Duda, Jay, Whit Merrifield, Mike Moustakas, and Salvador Pérez, you have half an average major-league lineup. The other half is absolutely horrendous. (The Royals don't have elite defense and baserunning anymore, either, so you can't find more than marginal extra value there.)
As for the pitching: You could do worse, I suppose, but it's far from stellar. Danny Duffy is easily the best pitcher on staff, having posted his best season as a full-time starter last year. The other hurlers are mid-rotation spares like Jason Hammel, Nate Karns, and Ian Kennedy. Walk-repellent 25-year-olds Jakob Junis and Eric Skoglund are the only representatives of youth in this rotation.
By the way, remember when the Royals had elite relief pitching? That was fun while it lasted, but it's long gone at this point. The team's bullpen was fairly middle-of-the-pack last season, but it's now down to Kelvin Herrera and Brandon Maurer as trustworthy options, with maybe some help from Justin Grimm (who struggled last year) and Kevin McCarthy (who is allergic to strikeouts). As a result, Kansas City's bullpen is actually projected as the worst in the game by FanGraphs.
The Royals are flat-out bad this year. Maybe not Tigers or Marlins bad, but they're certainly a team with no realistic shot at the postseason.
Chicago White Sox
Headed in the opposite direction of the Royals are the White Sox: a struggling team for now, but with plenty of youth in the majors or on the way there soon, and therefore some impressive upside.
Of the position players on track to make the Opening Day roster, just two (José Abreu, Wellington Castillo, and Kevan Smith) are older than 27. Many players, too, are under control for at least four more seasons. The highest-paid ones, like Abreu, Avisaíl García, and James Shields, will be gone in the next one or two; the estimated payroll for 2020 is $57.1 million. The Sox will have ample room to keep their best assets or improve themselves in free agency or trades.
And they may not need to go outside for help, either. In August, MLB.com's Jim Callis called their farm the best in baseball. Keith Law ranked them 10th this winter but had four Sox prospects in his top 100. Six made FanGraphs' top 100. MLB.com put two in their top 10. There's some real talent coming up soon, headlined by Eloy Jiménez, Michael Kopech, and Luis Robert.
For now, though, it's a work in progress. Chicago scored the fourth-fewest runs in the American League, in large part because they couldn't take a walk and kept striking out. Just three teams swung at more pitches out of the zone, and only one missed more often on those swings. The result: nobody on base and therefore nobody to bring home.
One can figure that players like Tim Anderson (an unmatched hacker) and Yoan Moncada (a notorious whiffer) can refine their approaches with time, as teammates García (no, not that García or that García) and Yolmer Sánchez did last year. For others, it might not work out, but that's how rebuilds go. Sometimes you find José Altuve and Marwin González; sometimes you find Matt Dominguez and Jimmy Paredes. You have time to determine who is what.
The pitchers are also sorting the Dallas Keuchels from the Jordan Lyleses. Lucas Giolito might be figuring things out. Carson Fulmer and Reynaldo López are trying to find their ways as well. The rest of the rotation is either filler (Shields) or flyer (Héctor Santiago) until the young guys stick.
Of the position players on track to make the Opening Day roster, just two (José Abreu, Wellington Castillo, and Kevan Smith) are older than 27. Many players, too, are under control for at least four more seasons. The highest-paid ones, like Abreu, Avisaíl García, and James Shields, will be gone in the next one or two; the estimated payroll for 2020 is $57.1 million. The Sox will have ample room to keep their best assets or improve themselves in free agency or trades.
And they may not need to go outside for help, either. In August, MLB.com's Jim Callis called their farm the best in baseball. Keith Law ranked them 10th this winter but had four Sox prospects in his top 100. Six made FanGraphs' top 100. MLB.com put two in their top 10. There's some real talent coming up soon, headlined by Eloy Jiménez, Michael Kopech, and Luis Robert.
For now, though, it's a work in progress. Chicago scored the fourth-fewest runs in the American League, in large part because they couldn't take a walk and kept striking out. Just three teams swung at more pitches out of the zone, and only one missed more often on those swings. The result: nobody on base and therefore nobody to bring home.
One can figure that players like Tim Anderson (an unmatched hacker) and Yoan Moncada (a notorious whiffer) can refine their approaches with time, as teammates García (no, not that García or that García) and Yolmer Sánchez did last year. For others, it might not work out, but that's how rebuilds go. Sometimes you find José Altuve and Marwin González; sometimes you find Matt Dominguez and Jimmy Paredes. You have time to determine who is what.
The pitchers are also sorting the Dallas Keuchels from the Jordan Lyleses. Lucas Giolito might be figuring things out. Carson Fulmer and Reynaldo López are trying to find their ways as well. The rest of the rotation is either filler (Shields) or flyer (Héctor Santiago) until the young guys stick.
The Sox got value out of selling off good relievers at the deadline last year; Luis Avilán, Nate Jones, Joakim Soria and maybe even Juan Minaya (who is 27 years old but has five years until free agency) could end up good trade chips this year. Trading them would give significantly worse pitchers more responsibility, but it would also give the team more long-term assets. A good bullpen has little use on a bad team.
Chicago is not near ready to contend yet, and they still might not be next year, but they're making incremental improvements. They could easily jump the Royals and take third place in the Central.
Detroit Tigers
Tigers fans might want to look away. This team is far from the low of the comically, unforgettably bad iteration fielded 15 years ago, but it's a bad, bad baseball team that will probably finish at the bottom of the American League for a second straight season.
Still, we can try to find positives. Right now, Detroit has a couple of valuable pieces in the starting rotation. At 25 years old each, Michael Fulmer and Daniel Norris are reaching the end of their qualification as "young," but they are under control for at least four more seasons and have shown some ability.
After winning Rookie of the Year in 2016, Fulmer had another strong season, allowing fewer walks and fewer home runs even as they became more common across the majors. We still don't know his floor and ceiling when it comes to strikeouts, but he looks like a solid pitcher.
Norris is a more confusing case. In the year-and-a-half after coming over from Toronto in 2015, he dominated minor-league pitching and looked impressive in a couple of brief major-league spells. But in 2017, when finally given a prolonged opportunity, that success went away. His strikeout-to-walk ratio dropped by almost a third, and opponents' hit-hard rate against Norris climbed to 41.7 percent, ballooning his ERA to 5.31.
It wasn't a drop-off in velocity or movement. He just stopped fooling hitters, getting fewer whiffs on his two favorite pitches (four-seamer and slider) and having hitters crush his fastball to the tune of a .324 isolated slugging. Hitters stopped falling for his slider, too. What was once an out pitch that got righties to chase frequently the year before became one that hitters watched harmlessly sail out of the zone. Considering that when hitters did swing at the pitch, Norris got whiffs, this is not ideal.
If Norris wants to put himself back into the Tigers' future plans with Fulmer, he needs to readjust. Perhaps returning his release point to its 2016 height would work, but I'm not sure what effects the changes actually had on his 2017 performance. If he can locate his tertiary options (changeup and curveball), incorporating them more often might pay off.
Finding other pockets of promise on this roster is hard, in large part because it's so old. The average Opening-Day age of the six leading starting pitching candidates is 28.5 years; that of the nine starting position players is 29.
And the old players aren't even good: the four best returning hitters, using last year's values, averaged 1.6 fWAR. Some on the roster, like Miguel Cabrera, Jacoby Jones, Victor Martinez, and new arrival Leonys Martín, were at or below replacement level. While the Tigers were just mediocre offensively, they were bad defensively. Only the Mets were worse by Defensive Runs Saved.
The pitching staff, meanwhile, was one of the worst in baseball, especially in the bullpen. The team overall posted the worst ERA; depending on which version of WAR you used, the relievers were either the worst or second-worst.
Thankfully, a lot of the older players come off the books in the next couple of years, but Cabrera is still owed $184 million until he's 40. Considering his age-34 season was by far the worst of his career, it will be exceedingly difficult to find someone to take him. Even if the Tigers manage to trade Cabrera before they're good enough to need flexibility again, they'll likely still be paying a good chunk of that salary and not getting too great a return in prospects.
Detroit needs prospects, too, since their farm is still coming along. Baseball America ranked the organization in the bottom third of baseball, and most of their best young pieces are still at least a year away from hitting the majors.
This team could get a lot worse before it gets better.
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Next: We conclude team-by-team previews with the AL West.
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