Today, we begin with the National League East.
Washington Nationals
Over the past few years, the Nationals have really looked like the archetypal "title-or-bust" team that keeps trying to figure out how they keep failing in the playoffs. Every year since 2012, they have had a winning record, winning four division titles along the way and spending big on free agents. After Matt Williams flamed out, the Nats tried the veteran "clubhouse guy" Dusty Baker, who went 192-132 only for each of his two postseasons to end in home defeat. Instead of remaining patient, the front office blamed the manager and hired Joe Maddon's longtime sidekick, Dave Martinez, as Baker's replacement.
In an atrocious division, Martinez inherits the decided favorites. On the position player side, the questions are few: Is Ryan Zimmerman's monstrous 2017 replicable? If Michael Taylor's BABIP regresses to more normal levels, does he have the pop to remain a productive enough hitter? Can Matt Wieters approach passability? Even if the answer to more than one of these is "no" (which FanGraphs' projections think will be the case), I don't know how much it will matter.
Injuries could expose potential depth issues (how many bench players do you trust after Howie Kendrick?), but I expect the team that scored the fifth-most runs in baseball last year will hit enough to beat up on the NL East.
The rotation is just as strong, if not better: In 2017, only the Diamondbacks and Indians' starters were better by fWAR, and only the latter led (narrowly) by bWAR. Their formidable first four – Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Tanner Roark – were responsible for the majority of that success and should have another strong 2018 campaign.
The problem comes when those four don't have the ball.
It's unclear who exactly will fill the fifth rotation spot, and neither option is too appealing at the moment. A.J. Cole appears to be the frontrunner, with 25-year-old Erick Fedde right behind him. For Cole, this would be the first real opportunity he's gotten at the highest level, having gotten a few brief stints over the past three years. He hasn't shown much ability to keep the ball in the park against big-league hitters, and last year, he posted a xFIP over 5.00.
Fedde made his Nats debut in mid-2018 and had a September callup ended by a forearm injury. While he's considered the organization's top pitching prospect, that's more because he has a high floor than because he has ace potential. Fedde is an extreme ground ball pitcher with a track record of solid command and middling to above-average strikeout rates in the minors. In other words, if he makes the next step this year, he'll be a strong fifth starter, and his eventual ceiling isn't that great. He hasn't proven he's ready yet, and with just 34 innings at Triple-A, he'll need more seasoning to get there.
In an atrocious division, Martinez inherits the decided favorites. On the position player side, the questions are few: Is Ryan Zimmerman's monstrous 2017 replicable? If Michael Taylor's BABIP regresses to more normal levels, does he have the pop to remain a productive enough hitter? Can Matt Wieters approach passability? Even if the answer to more than one of these is "no" (which FanGraphs' projections think will be the case), I don't know how much it will matter.
Injuries could expose potential depth issues (how many bench players do you trust after Howie Kendrick?), but I expect the team that scored the fifth-most runs in baseball last year will hit enough to beat up on the NL East.
The rotation is just as strong, if not better: In 2017, only the Diamondbacks and Indians' starters were better by fWAR, and only the latter led (narrowly) by bWAR. Their formidable first four – Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Tanner Roark – were responsible for the majority of that success and should have another strong 2018 campaign.
The problem comes when those four don't have the ball.
It's unclear who exactly will fill the fifth rotation spot, and neither option is too appealing at the moment. A.J. Cole appears to be the frontrunner, with 25-year-old Erick Fedde right behind him. For Cole, this would be the first real opportunity he's gotten at the highest level, having gotten a few brief stints over the past three years. He hasn't shown much ability to keep the ball in the park against big-league hitters, and last year, he posted a xFIP over 5.00.
Fedde made his Nats debut in mid-2018 and had a September callup ended by a forearm injury. While he's considered the organization's top pitching prospect, that's more because he has a high floor than because he has ace potential. Fedde is an extreme ground ball pitcher with a track record of solid command and middling to above-average strikeout rates in the minors. In other words, if he makes the next step this year, he'll be a strong fifth starter, and his eventual ceiling isn't that great. He hasn't proven he's ready yet, and with just 34 innings at Triple-A, he'll need more seasoning to get there.
Austin Voth is another 25-year-old starter on the 40-man, but he posted a 5.94 ERA across multiple levels of the minor leagues last year. After that, you have your pick of non-roster invitees. Edwin Jackson and Tommy Milone are in camp, but they were worth a combined -1.1 fWAR over the past two seasons. César Vargas made some starts for the Padres a couple years ago but was terrible, and he's been a reliever for most of his career anyway. Jaron Long has bounced between Double-A and Triple A for the past three years and has practically no business in the majors.
Now, a team always looks bad when you run through their last resorts. And again, the Nats are a great team that won't be hurt that much from a bad fifth starter. However, if Cole and Fedde still aren't major leaguers, or if Strasburg gets hurt again – both very real possibilities – suddenly, one of these guys (or someone comparable) will have to pitch meaningful innings. That will put the team in bigger holes and tax a potentially top-heavy bullpen.
Depth problems probably will not kill the Nationals, but it's the type of thing for which baseball so relishes punishing a team. They're a couple of injuries from a potentially tight situation.
(Here's your obligatory Bryce Harper contract mention: With their best and most recognizable player likely leaving next winter, there is undoubtedly more pressure on the team to win it all this season. Will that affect their play? Probably not. I have to imagine, however, that general manager Mike Rizzo – whose contract also expires at the end of the year – will be far more willing to address problems or do something desperate.)
The Nats are bound for another division title. We'll see if they're bound for another early postseason exit as well.
Miami Marlins
If you can remember it, the Marlins won 77 games last year. That's nothing fantastic, of course, but it was enough to finish atop the trash heap that is the rest of the NL East. They didn't have much pitching, but they certainly had a strong set of position players, including the league MVP. It was a respectable year that perhaps suggested, especially with the exit of Jeffrey Loria, that the fans would finally have a team to root for after years of suffering.
It's easy to forget all that. Aside from potential labor issues, the Marlins were the story of the offseason, shedding talent at an unprecedented pace for underwhelming returns and getting a lot of people to use the "T" Word. People are unhappy.
I'm not here to talk about how awful it is to be a Marlins fan, how slimy Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter are, what this means about the state of the league and the incentives for winning, or any of that other big stuff. I don't know what I can contribute other than what has already been said. I'm just here to examine the smoldering corpse.
To conduct this autopsy, we'll play a game. It's called Better or Worse?, and it's pretty simple. We look at the projected players at each position or position group and compare them to those who were on the team last year. After that, we say if they look better, worse, or roughly the same in that area. Let's get to it.
It's easy to forget all that. Aside from potential labor issues, the Marlins were the story of the offseason, shedding talent at an unprecedented pace for underwhelming returns and getting a lot of people to use the "T" Word. People are unhappy.
I'm not here to talk about how awful it is to be a Marlins fan, how slimy Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter are, what this means about the state of the league and the incentives for winning, or any of that other big stuff. I don't know what I can contribute other than what has already been said. I'm just here to examine the smoldering corpse.
To conduct this autopsy, we'll play a game. It's called Better or Worse?, and it's pretty simple. We look at the projected players at each position or position group and compare them to those who were on the team last year. After that, we say if they look better, worse, or roughly the same in that area. Let's get to it.
Catcher
2017: J.T. Realmuto – 3.6 fWAR
2018: J.T. Realmuto – 2.5 projected WAR
For now, and for the foreseeable future, Realmuto remains a Marlin. If you haven't noticed, Realmuto has been one of the best catchers in baseball over the past three seasons, hitting .281/.323/.430 with good baserunning and defense. Projections are usually conservative, so it's fair to expect Realmuto to outperform the above expectation and play like an All-Star again.
Ruling: Same
Infield
2017: Justin Bour, Dee Gordon, Derek Dietrich, J.T. Riddle/Miguel Rojas – 8.4 fWAR
2018: Justin Bour, Starlin Castro, Martin Prado, J.T. Riddle/Miguel Rojas – 4.7 projected WAR
Now we're talking. Bour and Castro are adequate, if wholly underwhelming and likely beyond the point of further improvement. Shortstops Riddle and Rojas are the embodiments of the of the all-glove, no-bat archetype. Prado is 34, coming off of knee surgery, and likely to give way to the much younger Brian Anderson before season's end. This is a miserable infield.
Gordon was capable of borderline All-Star production at second, and Dietrich (who is being pushed into left field and a sort of super-utility role) was decent at third. Castro and Prado are downgrades, and Rojas' career year at the plate in 2017 (which was still below-average) is probably not replicable.
Now we're talking. Bour and Castro are adequate, if wholly underwhelming and likely beyond the point of further improvement. Shortstops Riddle and Rojas are the embodiments of the of the all-glove, no-bat archetype. Prado is 34, coming off of knee surgery, and likely to give way to the much younger Brian Anderson before season's end. This is a miserable infield.
Gordon was capable of borderline All-Star production at second, and Dietrich (who is being pushed into left field and a sort of super-utility role) was decent at third. Castro and Prado are downgrades, and Rojas' career year at the plate in 2017 (which was still below-average) is probably not replicable.
Ruling: Worse
Outfield
2017: Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton – 16.2 fWAR
2018: Derek Dietrich, Lewis Brinson, Magneuris Sierra – projected 1.0 WAR
Ooooooh boy. This is obviously where the most dramatic swing in performance will be, both offensively and defensively. The 2017 outfield, even with an ancient Ichiro, hit for a .373 wOBA, the best in the majors by some distance; and it was top-10 in a number of defensive categories. The 2018 version has one hitter projected for better than a .306 wOBA and features a converted infielder in left. Brinson and Sierra are well regarded prospects in their early 20s, but with 119 major-league plate appearances between them, it will take some time before this is even a decent outfield.
I should mention that I included Dietrich's projected value at other positions. If you replaced his infield value with Cameron Maybin, the outfield would improve by a tenth of a win. Multiply that new total by 10, and you're still an All-Star away from matching last year's group.
I should mention that I included Dietrich's projected value at other positions. If you replaced his infield value with Cameron Maybin, the outfield would improve by a tenth of a win. Multiply that new total by 10, and you're still an All-Star away from matching last year's group.
Ruling: Worse
Bench
2017: A.J. Ellis, Tomas Telis, Tyler Moore, Mike Aviles, Brian Anderson, Christian Colón, Adeiny Hechavarria, Steve Lombardozzi, Martin Prado, Ichiro Suzuki – -1.5 fWAR
2018: Chad Wallach, Austin Nola, Tomas Telis, Garrett Cooper, Brian Anderson, Cameron Maybin, Braxton Lee, Rafael Ortega – projected 0.6 WAR
Most of the guys expected to fill time will probably be at or below replacement-level, but in Anderson and Maybin, Miami now actually has two players who could actually serve some kind of role on a good team's bench. Considering that no 2017 reserve player topped a fifth of a win in value, that qualifies as an automatic improvement.
Ruling: Better
Rotation
2017: Dan Straily, Edinson Volquez, Odrisamer Despaigne, Wei-Yin Chen, Jeff Locke, José Ureña, Dillon Peters, Chris O'Grady, Adam Conley, Justin Nicolino, Vance Worley, Tom Koehler – 3.0 fWAR
2018: Dan Straily, José Ureña, Adam Conley, Dillon Peters, Odrisamer Despaigne, Jacob Turner, Wei-Yin Chen, Sandy Alcantara, Chris O'Grady, Justin Nicolino, Pablo Lopez, James Needy, Caleb Smith, Zac Gallen – projected 6.0 WAR
2018: Dan Straily, José Ureña, Adam Conley, Dillon Peters, Odrisamer Despaigne, Jacob Turner, Wei-Yin Chen, Sandy Alcantara, Chris O'Grady, Justin Nicolino, Pablo Lopez, James Needy, Caleb Smith, Zac Gallen – projected 6.0 WAR
(As with Dietrich, I decided to include the above pitchers' relief value as well. In either case, it doesn't make a difference: a tenth of a win moves to the rotation for 2017; no value moves for 2018.)
Only four teams' starters posted worse ERAs than the Marlins' in 2017. Only one team's had a worse xFIP or SIERA. They were wretched.
The astounding thing, too, was that it's not like they had a lot of young pitchers still trying to find their footings: the Miami rotation was filled with guys you would be forgiven for forgetting were still in the league, with just three of the 12 starters they used in their age-25 season or younger. Of those three pitchers, none really showed they could stick in a major-league rotation, either, with Ureña's ERA kept down by an unsustainably low BABIP, Peters struggling with command, and Nicolino not able to continue 2016's moderate low-K success. A Marlins fan couldn't point to anyone and say, "He's going to be a worthwhile contributor when we're good again."
The 22-year-old Alcantara might be the one to provide that hope this season. Part of the Marcell Ozuna trade with St. Louis, Alcantara flashes heat but has trouble finding the zone and needs to hone his secondary options to stick as a starter. Still, he has the tools and the youth to deserve significant innings in what remains a terrible rotation.
As for the rest: It looks just as bad. Perhaps Lopez and Gallan could provide some excitement with September call-ups, but this is again a pretty hopeless group. I'll give this year's edition a slight edge, but only because of Alcantara and the other young guys.
Ruling: Better
Bullpen
2017: Kyle Barraclough, Drew Steckenrider, Brad Ziegler, Nick Wittgren, David Phelps, A.J. Ramos, Jarlin García, Javy Guerra, Hunter Cervenka, Junichi Tazawa, Dustin McGowan, Brian Ellington – 1.9 fWAR
2018: Brad Ziegler, Kyle Barraclough, Drew Steckenrider, Junichi Tazawa, Jarlin García, Brian Ellington, Nick Wittgren, Miguel Del Pozo, Severino Gonzalez, Tayron Guerrero, Elieser Hernandez, Brett Graves, others – projected 2.2 WAR
The personnel is just about identical here. While reliever performance can fluctuate wildly from year to year, the most likely outcome is that the overall value of this bullpen is comparable to last year's.
Ruling: Same
To recap: Despite some marginal improvements, the Marlins are, as a whole, much worse. (Wait, don't look so surprised.) It's not impossible for some in-progress rebuilds to stall, or some aging ex-contenders to collapse, but if you're looking for a favorite to get the first overall pick in 2019, here you are.
Atlanta Braves
Last year, I correctly guessed the Braves' final record after predicting they were transitioning into the second part of their rebuild, where the team is still bad but gets incrementally better as top prospects graduate from the farm and begin finding their way against big-league competition. They might be a little behind that still, or perhaps just now getting there, but the fact of the matter is that even with MLB sanctions and a new front office, the Atlanta rebuild remains on track.
The pieces are reaching the majors and coming together, even if I was a bit premature in declaring Dansby Swanson "absolutely legit" last year. (Turns out you can't maintain a .383 BABIP without much power.) Ozzie Albies, Johan Camargo, Rio Ruiz, and Swanson average 23 years old entering the season and should make up the infield (aside, of course, from the great Freddie Freeman).
Center fielder Ender Inciarte is under team control and making less than $10 million per year for five more seasons, and left field is soon to be occupied by top prospect Ronald Acuña, a five-tool phenom who just turned 20 in December. MLB.com calls Acuña's ceiling "almost limitless" – which is just the writer trying to only half-lean into hyperbole – and FanGraphs' scouts and computers agree he's top-notch. As soon as he becomes acquainted to major-league pitching, he should excel.
There's still some roster-filler, but know that Tyler Flowers isn't a part of it. According to Baseball Prospectus, no catcher was more valuable, thanks in large part to his status as the game's top framer, but also because the guy can hit: since joining the Braves two years ago, Flowers has slashed .276/.368/.433. At 32 years old, he likely won't be featured on the next good Braves team, but with just a year and a paltry $4 million remaining on his contract, he would surely fetch a good return from a contender that needs catching help.
The pitching side is also progressing. Julio Teheran remains good (unless he doesn't) and relatively cheap for the next couple years, and more youth is about to break into the rotation: Max Fried, Luiz Gohara, and Lucas Sims made their major-league debuts last year, and Kolby Allard, Mike Soroka, and others are potentially months from doing the same. Even if it's a bad idea to count on young arms to work out, the Braves have so many that they can afford the usual failures.
Right now, the Braves are still bad, but in two or three years, the story could be very different.
New York Mets
The Mets were fairly competent offensively, but what doomed them to the second-worst record in the East was a total inability to keep the other team from scoring. Just two teams allowed more runs.
Their defense, according to a few statistics, was anywhere from the worst in baseball by a decent amount (Defensive Runs Saved) to just below average (Ultimate Zone Rating); we can conclude they were bad, especially in an infield full of players beyond 30 years old. Taking more shortstop innings away from Asdrúbal Cabrera and José Reyes should help with that; as should the signing of Todd Frazier to play third.
A good infield still would not have made up for bad pitching, however. Once what won the Mets a pennant, the starting rotation was shambolic, in large part because of injuries. Noah Syndergaard pitched 27.1 innings before missing almost five whole months. Steven Matz was kept out until June, but then he posted a 6.08 ERA over 13 games and ended the year on the 60-day DL. Seth Lugo and his high-spin curveball also were sidelined until June, but he was actually adequate upon his return. Robert Gsellman underwhelmed in his first full season, and Matt Harvey was just a general mess. (Each also hit the DL.) Only Jacob deGrom made it through 2017 unscathed.
The woes extended to the bullpen. Erik Goeddel, Neil Ramirez, Hansel Robles, Fernando Salas, and Josh Smoker combined for a 5.41 ERA over 208 innings. Jeurys Familia, in part because of suspension and in part because of blood clots, only made 26 appearances. Chasen Bradford, Josh Egdin, and Paul Sewald all either had encouraging peripherals and bad results, or bad peripherals and untrustworthy results. The only truly reliable members of the relief corps were Addison Reed (who is now a Twin) and Jerry Blevins. As a whole, the New York bullpen finished 29th in ERA, 24th in xFIP, and 26th in Deserved Run Average.
Now, the computers expect the Mets to much more closely resemble a passable ball club and finish around .500. The reason is pretty simple: The position player side should slightly improve; and when the starting pitchers aren't in the trainer's room, they have shown they can be really good.
I don't think Matz and Harvey to pitch on an All-Star level like they have before, and I do not consider Jason Vargas a proper fallback plan, but it's easy to convince me the Mets could have a passable rotation again when deGrom was excellent last year, when Syndergaard is hitting triple-digits just to show he can, and when the others have flashed (if nothing else) strong potential in the past. As much as I distrust them to all remain healthy for a whole season, surely something as catastrophic as 2017 won't repeat itself. (Right?)
Even assuming better health in the rotation, I'm not sold on the Mets. The bullpen looks incredibly worrisome still; Familia and Blevins are joined by free agent signing Anthony Swarzak and mid-2017 acquisition A.J. Ramos, which is a fine top end to a bullpen, but no significant improvements have been made beyond that. Asking those four to carry the whole load is folly.
With at least four other fringe playoff contenders in the Central and West, the Mets will likely have to feast upon their weak division in order to have a shot at the Wild Card. They could do that, but it'll take some reinforcements – and tons more luck than they usually have – along the way.
Their defense, according to a few statistics, was anywhere from the worst in baseball by a decent amount (Defensive Runs Saved) to just below average (Ultimate Zone Rating); we can conclude they were bad, especially in an infield full of players beyond 30 years old. Taking more shortstop innings away from Asdrúbal Cabrera and José Reyes should help with that; as should the signing of Todd Frazier to play third.
A good infield still would not have made up for bad pitching, however. Once what won the Mets a pennant, the starting rotation was shambolic, in large part because of injuries. Noah Syndergaard pitched 27.1 innings before missing almost five whole months. Steven Matz was kept out until June, but then he posted a 6.08 ERA over 13 games and ended the year on the 60-day DL. Seth Lugo and his high-spin curveball also were sidelined until June, but he was actually adequate upon his return. Robert Gsellman underwhelmed in his first full season, and Matt Harvey was just a general mess. (Each also hit the DL.) Only Jacob deGrom made it through 2017 unscathed.
The woes extended to the bullpen. Erik Goeddel, Neil Ramirez, Hansel Robles, Fernando Salas, and Josh Smoker combined for a 5.41 ERA over 208 innings. Jeurys Familia, in part because of suspension and in part because of blood clots, only made 26 appearances. Chasen Bradford, Josh Egdin, and Paul Sewald all either had encouraging peripherals and bad results, or bad peripherals and untrustworthy results. The only truly reliable members of the relief corps were Addison Reed (who is now a Twin) and Jerry Blevins. As a whole, the New York bullpen finished 29th in ERA, 24th in xFIP, and 26th in Deserved Run Average.
Now, the computers expect the Mets to much more closely resemble a passable ball club and finish around .500. The reason is pretty simple: The position player side should slightly improve; and when the starting pitchers aren't in the trainer's room, they have shown they can be really good.
I don't think Matz and Harvey to pitch on an All-Star level like they have before, and I do not consider Jason Vargas a proper fallback plan, but it's easy to convince me the Mets could have a passable rotation again when deGrom was excellent last year, when Syndergaard is hitting triple-digits just to show he can, and when the others have flashed (if nothing else) strong potential in the past. As much as I distrust them to all remain healthy for a whole season, surely something as catastrophic as 2017 won't repeat itself. (Right?)
Even assuming better health in the rotation, I'm not sold on the Mets. The bullpen looks incredibly worrisome still; Familia and Blevins are joined by free agent signing Anthony Swarzak and mid-2017 acquisition A.J. Ramos, which is a fine top end to a bullpen, but no significant improvements have been made beyond that. Asking those four to carry the whole load is folly.
With at least four other fringe playoff contenders in the Central and West, the Mets will likely have to feast upon their weak division in order to have a shot at the Wild Card. They could do that, but it'll take some reinforcements – and tons more luck than they usually have – along the way.
Philadelphia Phillies
After 2016, I was quite enamored with the Phillies' encouraging pitching staff, but 2017 tempered that excitement a good bit.
Aaron Nola was outstanding; Jerad Eickhoff was perfectly fine again; Nick Pivetta showed he can at least get whiffs, if not soft contact, against major-league hitting; Ben Lively managed to record outs despite having seemingly one good pitch; and Mark Leiter surprisingly emerged as a possible fourth or fifth starter.
Everyone else though: varying degrees of utter dross. Hitters stopped missing Jeremy Hellickson's changeup, and he stopped being a good pitcher. (He was shipped off to Baltimore in late July.) Vince Velasquez got more ground balls but struck out fewer batters, walked more of them, and allowed more home runs. Jake Thompson looked totally overmatched before going back to Triple-A and not looking much better. Zach Eflin's first few starts were encouraging, and then he got shelled repeatedly until his ERA exceeded 6.00. Experiments with veterans Clay Buchholz and Henderson Álvarez were brief and dismal. At some point, this has to look something like a big-league rotation.
It's still easy to talk yourself into it becoming that, though. Assuming Nola and Eickhoff are what they appear to be, the Phils have two building blocks. If Piveta can limit home runs better, or Velasquez returns to whatever worked for him in 2016, they might have three or four. The last spot can filled pretty easily by one of the others or by whatever other teams leave on their driveways. That's not an excellent rotation, but it's certainly a competent one for now. If someone other than Nola can break through and live up to his potential (which I'm beginning to doubt as we get larger samples), it could become something more.
Aaron Nola was outstanding; Jerad Eickhoff was perfectly fine again; Nick Pivetta showed he can at least get whiffs, if not soft contact, against major-league hitting; Ben Lively managed to record outs despite having seemingly one good pitch; and Mark Leiter surprisingly emerged as a possible fourth or fifth starter.
Everyone else though: varying degrees of utter dross. Hitters stopped missing Jeremy Hellickson's changeup, and he stopped being a good pitcher. (He was shipped off to Baltimore in late July.) Vince Velasquez got more ground balls but struck out fewer batters, walked more of them, and allowed more home runs. Jake Thompson looked totally overmatched before going back to Triple-A and not looking much better. Zach Eflin's first few starts were encouraging, and then he got shelled repeatedly until his ERA exceeded 6.00. Experiments with veterans Clay Buchholz and Henderson Álvarez were brief and dismal. At some point, this has to look something like a big-league rotation.
It's still easy to talk yourself into it becoming that, though. Assuming Nola and Eickhoff are what they appear to be, the Phils have two building blocks. If Piveta can limit home runs better, or Velasquez returns to whatever worked for him in 2016, they might have three or four. The last spot can filled pretty easily by one of the others or by whatever other teams leave on their driveways. That's not an excellent rotation, but it's certainly a competent one for now. If someone other than Nola can break through and live up to his potential (which I'm beginning to doubt as we get larger samples), it could become something more.
Meanwhile, the Phillies' lineup is still somewhat sorting itself out.
The balls Maikel Franco hit last year stopped falling last season. While he should rebound from a .234 BABIP, Franco won't become a good hitter just by regression to the mean. He makes enough contact to where his lack of discipline doesn't matter much, but he wastes his power by punching the ball straight into the ground. He's apparently trying to fix his approach; we'll see if it works. Even if it does, Franco will probably have to improve his fielding and baserunning.
With the signing of Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins is moving to left field – a position he played slightly more than first last year, and apparently passably – and Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams are forming a platoon in right. I'm unsure how necessary that is; Altherr seems to have little platoon split and has shown more plate discipline and defense than Williams (who demonstrated a tolerable platoon split). Either would probably do fine on his own. Considering that Williams is almost three years younger and has a couple more years of team control, it's probably his spot long-term.
The progressions of toolsy-but-raw catcher Jorge Alfaro and prolific walker J.P. Crawford are also worth watching. Second baseman Scott Kingery and speedy outfielder Roman Quinn could join them in the lineup late in the year. The Phillies are, if nothing else, full of interesting players.
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Next: The much less lopsided NL Central.
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