Conference USA
Conference USA's title game looks to be a repeat of last season's, though a few potential usurpers are rising to challenge the two favorites in the coming years.
West
Predicted Standings:
- Louisiana Tech
- Southern Mississippi
- UTSA
- North Texas
- Rice
- UTEP
- UAB
Louisiana Tech put up the second-most points per game of any team in the country last year, scoring 24 or fewer in just two games (losses to Arkansas and Southern Mississippi). The team's quarterback, their top two passing targets, and three-fifths of their line have departed, putting pressure on senior running back Jarred Craft to maintain such firepower. Plenty of other receivers got snaps, and new quarterback J'mar Smith didn't embarrass himself in limited time last year, so the transition shouldn't be too bad, but I don't think that level of performance is repeatable after these changes. Getting Western Kentucky in the cross-division schedule doesn't help either.
However, I don't think that keeps the Bulldogs out of the conference title game; it may not even make things tighter at the top. The other would-be West contenders either suffer too much turnover in key areas or are too far away to pose much of a challenge.
Southern Mississippi is the team with the best shot at stealing a division title. The Golden Eagles' up-tempo offense last season led to a lot of points and made up for an inconsistent defense, but such a performance looks tough to duplicate..
Running back Ito Smith returns for his senior season after rushing for 1,459 yards (5.5 per carry) and 17 touchdowns last season, and so does 72.9-percent pass-catcher Allenzae Staggers. The success of these two playmakers is crucial, as both the line and quarterback positions are inexperienced. Keon Howard struggled mightily under center in relief of the now-graduated Nick Mullens as a true freshman, and he could be beaten out for the job by former JUCO recruit Kwadra Griggs. Griggs redshirted last year and has yet to throw a competitive pass for Southern Miss, leaving it a mystery as to what kind of play will come from quarterback.
The defense held opponents to a 54.5 percent completion percentage, 26th-best in the country, and a fourth-best 14.8 first downs per game. However, USM was haunted by the big play, still allowing a 75th-ranked 29.5 points per game and finishing 127th in limiting explosiveness (by Bill Connelly's Isolated Points Per Play stat). They have to keep things under control at the back if they want to avoid having to win shootouts.
Frank Wilson surprised many with his first UTSA recruiting class, taking a team that had finished outside the Top 100 in each of its five years of existence to third in the conference. This coincided with a return to a bowl game after consecutive sub-.500 seasons to close Larry Coker's tenure as coach.
While the Roadrunners appeared surprisingly competent in a series of close losses and beat a handful of conference opponents comfortably, they don't look like West contenders yet. Squeaking by Rice by a point and losing all four of their out-of-conference games against FBS opposition are not confidence-inspiring bullet points.
Dual-threat senior quarterback Dalton Sturm looks like the best player on an offense lacking in big weapons. The defense, which finished roughly in the middle of FBS in a handful of statistics, returns many of its best players, including leading tackler Josiah Tauaefa, so that bodes relatively well. Houston and Baylor will tear it to shreds, endangering their odds at bowl eligibility, but in the league, it should do a fine enough job.
When Wilson's recruits begin to see the field, it's easy to see UTSA rising to the top of Conference USA. For now, they look like members of its mushy, unspectacular middle.
Meanwhile, things look encouraging in Denton, where Seth Littrell's Mean Green showed great progress in 2016. The Conference USA slate features a lot of empty calories, but a four-win leap is usually impressive, regardless of the opponents.
The bulk of North Texas's improvement came, despite Littrell's offensive background, on the defense, especially in the secondary: opponents' passing percentage dropped from the second-highest in FBS, 68.6 percent to seventh-lowest, 51.4 percent, an unmatched turnaround. Fortunately, the entire secondary returns in 2017, including cornerback Eric Jenkins, who led the team with 10 pass breakups and tied for second-best on the team with three interceptions.
The UNT offense moved more toward what you would expect from Littrell and coordinator Graham Harrell (both former Mike Leach assistants – and Harrell a Leach quarterback), as passing increased. However, the aerial game wasn't very effective, completing throws but not for great gains. Sophomore Mason Fine got the bulk of the snaps but was a better runner than passer. Experience and offensive line continuity (four of five starters return) may make things easier on Fine, but it seems more likely that UNT will rely more on productive running backs Jeffrey Wilson and Willy Ivery for the time being.
Whatever continued improvement they see, the Mean Green still won't challenge for the division in 2017.
UTEP and Rice both went 2-6 in conference play, in large part due to terrible defenses. The Miners' opponents averaged 6.1 yards per play, the 36th-worst mark in FBS; the Owls did worse than anyone, allowing 7.5 yards per play. Many of each team's leading tacklers return, which is either good or ominous news, depending on your faith in player development year-to-year.
Their offenses were closer to passable but still ranked 85th and 93rd in points per game. While UTEP lost 1,773-yard rusher Aaron Jones to the NFL Draft and lacks a clear replacement, Rice has an intriguing player to carry the ball: in significant but limited time, junior Samuel Stewart averaged 6.2 yards per carry. With a stable of shaky quarterback options, Stewart could be a valuable weapon.
UTEP coach Sean Kugler is probably on his last legs after making just one bowl game in his four previous years and finishing in the bottom three of the conference with each of his recruiting classes. David Bailiff may get a lot more patience, having turned Rice from a two- or three-win team into bowlers twice before. In a couple years, I can realistically see him at the end of another turnaround.
UAB's two recruiting classes since the program's reinstatement have ranked second and ninth in Conference USA. A handful of players return from the 2014 team with varying levels of actual game experience, and a massive chunk of the roster consists of transfers from programs in the FBS, FCS, or junior college ranks. The coaches have been in place for a year, but just three were on staff in 2014, and only head coach Bill Clark holds the same position he did then.
There's little information out there on what this team will look like together, making it close to guesswork as to how they'll play. The safe bet is that the Blazers, needing continuity more than anything, will struggle despite a good amount of experience assembled from other schools. I see five games on the schedule (Alabama A&M, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Rice, UTEP) that are conceivably winnable if UAB is better than one of the worst two or three teams in FBS. A realistic hope might be taking three.
East
Predicted Standings:
- Western Kentucky (conference championship game winners)
- Middle Tennessee State
- Old Dominion
- Marshall
- Florida International
- Florida Atlantic
- Charlotte
Western Kentucky had one of the best offenses in college football with Jeff Brohm as head coach, finishing in the top five in yards per play in each of his three seasons. Against Conference USA opposition last year, the Hilltoppers averaged an absurd 51.7 points per game, enough to beat everyone in the league except on an October 6 trip to Louisiana Tech (which was later avenged in the conference championship game). Even with a few starters – and more importantly, Brohm – gone now, you have to imagine they will continue to torch defenses in the short term. Their own defense, which allowed 3.0 yards per carry last season and ranked a tolerable 81st in Passing S&P+, also has plenty of room to fall under Mike Sanford. I have full confidence in WKU's chances at a threepeat.
MTSU, like a number of teams in the conference, was great offensively last season. The former should be even better in 2017: all but two starting skill players return, including now-junior quarterback Brent Stockstill and leading receivers Richie James and Ty Lee. Some holes in the offensive line and uncertainty at running back are relatively minor concerns due to coordinator Tony Franklin's reliance on the short passing game.
The defense, the weaker unit, was pretty young as well. The linebackers and secondary lost only two players who made at least 10 tackles last year, which should mean improvement. The line was hurt badly by graduation, however, so the team that gave up the eighth-most rushing touchdowns per game in the country may have an even harder time against opposing running backs. S&P+ projects the Blue Raiders to field the third-worst defense in FBS; with nobody up front, it makes sense, but with so few good running teams on the conference schedule, I can't imagine things going so poorly.
I give you the division's dividing point, the Old Dominion Monarchs. ODU was a run-first offensive team last year but could still succeed in the air. Breaking in a new quarterback and losing receiver Zach Pascal may require a greater reliance on the ground game, something that probably won't kill them anyway. The defense looks sturdy enough to survive, but not achieve much more than a seven- or eight-win season.
The back end of Conference USA's East Division was bad in 2016. Marshall faltered in significant part because of injuries and has a more experienced roster now, so I have a little more confidence in their ability to finish at the "top" of the crop. FIU returns most of its production, including leading tacklers Treyvon Williams and Anthony Wint, and nearly-1,000-yard rusher Alex Gardner. Even if the team wasn't that good before, there's something to be said for the development benefits of seeing significant game action. Lane Kiffin is already recruiting well and has some weapons on offense at FAU, but I don't see them winning immediately. And Charlotte doesn't really have anything going for them right now, apart from a cross-division game against UAB and out-of-conference games against Georgia State and North Carolina A&T.
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Sun Belt
The Sun Belt boasts two of the best mid-major teams in the country, but they won't play each other. Kind of a bummer.
Predicted Standings:
- Appalachian State
- Troy
- Arkansas State
- Georgia Southern
- Idaho
- South Alabama
- Coastal Carolina
- Georgia State
- Louisiana-Lafayette
- Louisiana-Monroe
- New Mexico State
- Texas State
Just looking on last year's results, one would be inclined to pick Appalachian State to win this conference. The Mountaineers were in every game except a blowout at the hands of Miami, and who dominated all the Sun Belt teams on their schedule not named Troy. They don't have to play Troy this year though, and they somehow miss last year's co-champions, Arkansas State.
The Mountaineers are solid on both sides of the ball and didn't lose many players to graduation. Unless Georgia Southern returns to its previous self, or somebody else on the schedule has any surprises in store, they could walk into a conference championship. I'm thinking it's more likely than not that they do.
Troy, who at times looked like the conference's best team in 2016, got trounced by Arkansas State and slipped up late against Georgia Southern, failing to even earn a share of the title. While improvement on offense looks impending, last year's better unit, the defense, needs to replace all three starting linebackers and its leading sacker on the line. Neal Brown has (somewhat to my surprise, having seen him make a number of frustrating decisions as a playcaller for Texas Tech) turned the Trojans into something mighty in two years, and he's probably not long for the Sun Belt, but Year 3 in charge might be a good season instead of another great one.
After losing all four of their non-conference games (including to FCS Central Arkansas), Arkansas State went 7-1 in Sun Belt play and split the conference title on the strength of a formidable defense: from their conference opener against Georgia Southern through their bowl game against UCF, the Red Wolves allowed just 15 points per game. The problem with repeating such a performance is that their leading tackler, second-place sack leader, and three of their four best pass defenders all are gone. Some really solid players, like linebacker Kyle Wilson and defensive backs Justin Clifton and Blaise Taylor, are still here, but they can't carry the whole unit. Without a very good offense, some of 2017's narrower wins could easily turn into losses.
There's a lot of nothing in the middle of the conference. Georgia Southern, after a disastrous affair with a non-option offense, seems to be pivoting back to their traditional system, but with the personnel who were so good running it having graduated. A more experienced defense keep Tyson Summers employed for another year. Idaho rode turnovers luck and close wins to a nine-win season but could definitely end their FBS life in a bowl game. South Alabama has conceivably decent quarterback and offensive line situations and a solid running back, but no receivers and some holes to fill on defense. Coastal Carolina, another FCS success story turned Sun Belt team, isn't quite a mystery, but it's fair to guess they won't blow away the competition. Recyclers Georgia State are breaking in a new head coach after the hollowest 3-win season imaginable in 2016, which has the potential to work out thanks to a capable defense. Louisiana-Lafayette, already a poor offensive team, looks like they'll be purely dreadful after departures; and they need to replace practically their whole linebacker group.
Texas State and Louisiana-Monroe were two of the youngest teams in FBS last year. Not coincidentally, they were also two of the worst teams in FBS. It will take more than a summer to fully recover from that. New Mexico State is in a similar boat, but a solid run game, to me, puts the Aggies above the other two teams at the bottom of the league talent-wise. Drawing the four best teams in the conference (the others got just three of the four) probably drops them a place in the standings. (Hardly the farewell from Sun Belt life they will want.)
* * *
Mid-American Conference
While Toledo looks to finally claim a conference title, the MAC's middle is steadily improving for 2018 and beyond.
West
Predicted Standings:
- Toledo (conference championship game winners)
- Western Michigan
- Northern Illinois
- Eastern Michigan
- Ball State
- Central Michigan
Fortunately, Toledo looks to be the favorites. While they lose running back Kareem Hunt and some receivers, the conference's best offense should stay that way. The defense has bigger holes to replace, but the Rockets survived just fine last year despite being below average. They should be able to outpace the opponent if needed in a shootout.
Western Michigan and Toledo were nearly identical last season, finishing 35th and 34th in S&P+ respectively. They went about things differently, with P.J. Fleck's Broncos relying more on the run game than a balanced offense, but they finished within six spots of each other in yards per play. Defensively, they both posted 5.8 yards per play marks. The difference, of course, was that Western Michigan ran the table in the regular season, including a division-clinching win over Toledo.
So what's the difference between the two now? Attrition. Losing Fleck and his staff will hurt in the long term, but losing Zach Terrell and Korey Davis, the two most important players on the offense, will hurt right now. The two leading receivers after Davis have graduated as well, and nobody returning had even half of the number of targets those three had last season. Still: running back Jarvion Franklin remains, and few big defensive players are gone. WMU will still play well, even if they seem unlikely to repeat as conference champs.
Northern Illinois's 2016 was a huge disappointment by their standards, mostly thanks to quarterback injuries, but they still went 5-3 in MAC play. Like at Western Michigan, things are uncertain at quarterback, and some of their favorite passing targets have graduated, but they should be better than 5-7. Running back Jordan Huff averaged 6.3 yards per carry last year, so the Huskies won't be without weapons, and if the new linebacker corps works out, then losing their two leading tacklers won't hurt as much either on an experienced and likely improved defense. I don't expect NIU to catch either of the division favorites, but I consider it possible enough to consider, if Western Michigan suffers from transition issues.
The other two directional Michigans had an odd year, with Eastern actually turning in a solid season and Central finishing in fifth place and getting swept by their two rivals. Eastern was really young on both sides of the ball, so a decent team should get better, and even could challenge for third place in the West behind a great offense. The Chippewas, without Cooper Rush, have a mystery at quarterback for the first time since 2013, when Rush was a freshman. Whoever succeeds him will have weapons and an okay line in front of him, but until things are set under center, it's difficult to believe in CMU being much better.
Ball State was 1-5 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Other than games against conference leaders Western Michigan and Toledo did they lose by more than ten points. They don't look like they were as bad as their 4-8 record. If their running game can repeat or improve upon its 2016 performance, then the Cardinals will have a good time moving the ball. The defense looks like it will be dreadful after losing its top five tacklers, but with their offense, there's a decent chance Ball State crawls itself out of the division's basement.
East
Predicted Standings:
- Miami (OH)
- Ohio
- Bowling Green
- Akron
- Kent State
- Buffalo
The reigning division champions, Ohio, aren't suddenly a bad team, but unlike Miami, they don't return a lot of their top players. While this problem doesn't affect their strong defense much, it should make an already quite poor offense worse. I just don't think they can put up enough points to repeat.
Bowling Green and Akron were roughly as bad as each other last season. I prefer the former because of a more experienced roster (especially on defense) and better recent recruiting.
I will say this: Kent State had a defense. Among MAC teams, only Ohio bettered their 5.2 yards per play allowed, and nobody held opponents to a lower completion percentage (51.8 percent).
But the key word is "had." The Golden Flashes lose their best pass rusher, best pass defender, and top two tacklers, and most of the players that come back underwhelm. Corner Jerell Foster is the most trustworthy cover man, and a pair of safeties racked up some nice tackling numbers; I can't find any other bright spots. This could be an ugly, ugly season.
Fortunately for them, Buffalo looks just as bad, if not worse. Improvement on defense and slightly more generous cross-division matchups might push the Bulls into fifth place. I don't think so though.
* * *
Up next: the Mountain West, the American, and the independents.
A heaping amount of credit for statistical information goes to Bill Connelly, SB Nation's stats emperor and creator of the S&P+ analytics system. Sports-Reference's data also came in handy.
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