Playoff contenders top the Atlantic, and the Coastal is a free-for-all. What else is new?
Atlantic
Predicted Standings:
- Florida State (conference championship game winner)
- Clemson
- Louisville
- NC State
- Syracuse
- Wake Forest
- Boston College
Florida State was strong in 2016. Of their three losses, just one (the memorable blowout by Louisville) was by more than three points, and six of their 10 wins were by more than one possession. Winning a tightly contested Orange Bowl against Michigan left a good final impression. But while last season's Seminoles were good, with most of that team returning, they could win the national title.
It's necessary to count the Noles' subtractions first: the three most-targeted receivers, a two-time All-American running back, an All-American tackle, and a starting guard are gone from the offense. Defensive end DeMarcus Walker accumulated 16.0 sacks last season, and he's gone too, along with a starting cornerback.
Otherwise though: I'm pretty confident. It'll be hard to replace Roderick Johnson at tackle, but five linemen return who started five or more games last year, including center Alec Eberle, who has started 19 straight and was voted to the preseason All-ACC First Team. Now-sophomore Deandre Francois did quite well as a passer and a runner. Nyqwan Murray and Auden Tate are effective receivers who got plenty of chances to play. Jacques Patrick was no Dalvin Cook, but any back who averages 5.7 yards per carry in a decent sample deserves some respect. And to pick up any of Patrick's slack, there's Cam Akers, the country's second-best prospect last Signing Day. It's hard to see the FSU offense even coming close to falling apart.
The defense, meanwhile, suffers the loss of just two starters. The biggest transitional concern, the pass rush, seems like it'll be just fine. Linemen Derrick Nnadi, Josh Sweat, and Brian Burns all finished 2016 with 6.0 sacks or more, so while Walker will be missed, it looks like whatever decline occurs will be relatively small. For a defense that was a respectable 37th in yards per play and 44th in points per game (they would have ranked 21st in the latter without Lamar Jackson), and that is built on a lot of formerly big-name recruits, it's easy to see major improvement mean a defense that's good enough to win the ACC – or something bigger.
The biggest obstacle in FSU's way to the Playoff is their schedule: playing Alabama and Florida out-of-conference is mighty tough, and most of the normal slate isn't generous either. Miami, Louisville, and Clemson are the other three best teams in the conference, and they all will be in the Noles' way. The middle of the ACC is better than it once was, too; there aren't many pushovers. If one wanted to find two or three losses on the schedule, he or she could without much problem.
The reigning champions, Clemson, need to regroup on offense before they can take another shot at the crown. Only two first-team linemen depart, but the skill players that led the title-winning team are few. Deshaun Watson: gone, replaced by a quarterback with 18 college pass attempts. Jordan Leggett: gone, replaced by a career special teamer. Wayne Gallman: gone, replaced by a running back who hasn't run for a touchdown in two years. Mike Williams: gone. Artavis Scott: gone.
I'm willing to guess the new guys will perform pretty well (the receiving corps, despite its losses, is a real strength); Dabo Swinney gets good recruits, and it's worth remembering his team just won the national championship. They probably won't be one of the best units in the country though, and that means a significant drop-off.
If the Tigers do claw themselves into the Playoff somehow, it will be because of an outstanding defense. Last year, opponents averaged just 4.6 yards per play. While some huge contributors graduated, that didn't leave the group bare at all. Christian Wilkins, Dexter Lawrence, and Clelin Ferrell are three-fourths of a formidable defensive line. Kendall Joseph and Dorian O'Daniel combined for 22.5 tackles for loss, and they again make up two-thirds of the linebackers. Despite losing its two best players, the secondary features talented players like safety Van Smith, who finished third on the team with tackles, and corner Ryan Carter, who broke up seven passes.
Moving the ball against Clemson should be hard for all but the best offenses in FBS, and that alone should mean another solid season. The offense may not settle itself for a little while, and that could mean early losses – the Tigers' first five games include Auburn, Louisville, and Virginia Tech – but there's enough ability there to keep things close against good opponents until it does.
Lamar Jackson scored 51 touchdowns in 2016. Just twelve players have done better, and just Tim Tebow did so in his second year of school like Jackson. That is truly remarkable. Any team that has Jackson automatically has the biggest cheat code in college football.
But you still have to put pieces around him, and Lousville lost a lot of pieces over the offseason. Jackson's three favorite targets all graduated, and so did running back Brandon Radcliff, who averaged 6.5 yards per carry. Worse, the Cardinals, who already had major pocket protection issues, need new starters all along the interior of their offensive line. The regular lineup missed one start between the five of them all season, meaning there isn't much of any playing experience between the tackles. Jackson has a penchant for making things happen by himself, but he'll be as alone as ever this year. A really good defense means Louisville will still win games. However, a New Year's Six bowl seems unlikely.
The NC State defense was quite effective last season, limiting teams to 5.1 yards per play. With few departures (all but three starters are back), it will stay that way, but there could be issues in the secondary. Opponents already were better in the air than on the ground; if they face a lot of passes, it may catch up to them. Also worrying, albeit more in the long term: eight projected defensive starters are seniors. The youth should get as many reps as possible now to limit next year's decline.
Offensively, the Wolfpack was unremarkable and average, but this side of the ball also returns most of its starters. H-back Jaylen Samuels is their biggest weapon, leading the team in catches each of the last two seasons and running for 700 yards over his first three years. Quarterback Ryan Finley played pretty well in his first season, and with Samuels and most of his other favorite targets back, he could really break out.
A tough schedule will depress the win total, but NC State has eight-win talent. With a few breaks, they might get there again.
Syracuse is banking on the power of experience to help them for the next two seasons. Fifteen of 22 starters are back from Dino Babers's debut, and all but six of those 15 figure to be part of the 2018 Orange. In the meantime, Syracuse won't be that good, but this year should show progress.
Quarterback Eric Dungey relied heavily on a pair of receivers who combined for 253 targets, and one of them, Ervin Phillips, returns. Steve Ishmael is likely to take up the Number 2 role, though neither came close to the departed Amba Etta-Tawo's 1,482 yards and 14 touchdowns. One of them, or one of the many underclassmen below them, needs to take over as the team's new scoring threat, especially since nothing got done on the ground last year. Running back Dontae Strickland should benefit from continuity up front, but it seems unlikely the team that finished 123rd in FBS in yards per carry would suddenly be adept at running the ball. The Syracuse offense, as you can see, is still kind of figuring things out.
On the other side of the ball, it's still pretty young. On the projected two-deep, there are 10 sophomores, six of whom are expected to start. A trio of seniors fill the linebacking group, with two of them (Parris Bennett and Zaire Franklin, combined 161.5 tackles, 16.5 for loss) looking especially capable. The secondary has plenty of options but no standouts. (Oddly, safeties Daivon Ellison and Rodney Williams are listed as second-stringers despite decent seasons. Williams can be explained by the return of original starter Antwan Cordy; I can't figure out Ellison.) Conversely, sophomore tackle Chris Slayton shows promise as a pass rusher after getting 4.0 sacks and 10.0 TFLs.
This whole team is a work in progress at the moment. Bowl eligibility is a nice goal for now. It's very conceivable, though, that Babers leads the Orange to a solid season a year from now.
Wake Forest and Boston College are two teams desperately needing some kind of offensive punch. The Deacons are in the right spot for such a thing, seeing as how all but literally one player who started for them on offense last year is still on their roster. (That's right, 21 of those 22 players return.) The problem, of course, is that those players just had a pretty poor season, but as I've said before, I'm a believer in year-to-year development. I'm not going to pretend they'll suddenly be good – with their schedule, they could lose 10 games – but last year's defense dragged Wake Forest to a 6-6 record. With more points going up on their side of the scoreboard, that could mean something better. (Again, probably not with the games on their schedule. But hey! If you don't have hope, what do you have?)
To the northeast, the dudes at Boston College don't have as much going for them. Before you even get to their fledgling offense, you have to look at their schedule and ask the same thing as with Wake Forest: where do the wins come from? UConn is dreadful enough to assume a victory, it's possible (but maybe unwise) to think the same way of the two MAC opponents, and Wake and Virginia should be toss-ups at least. That's a near-definite win, a couple probables, and a couple maybes. This is going to a rough year.
Anyway: for a run-first offense, the Eagles were pretty rotten at running the ball. Specifically, they finished just a fifth of a yard ahead of Syracuse, whom we admonished not long ago for their rushing incabapilities. Three starting linemen return, which may lead to slight improvement and allow the backs to get into the open field a little more often. (Running the ball, BC ranked 32nd in Football Outsiders's Isolated Points Per Play stat, a measurement of explosiveness. Usually, that can be credited to good skill play far more than effective blocking.) Whether they can take advantage of a likely improved receiver corps is frankly a mystery, as the leading options for quarterback are graduate Darius Wade (30 of 61 on career pass attempts) and redshirt freshman Anthony Brown (three-star dual-threat Class of 2016 prospect).
Within a few weeks, after seeing what the eventual quarterback has, opponents could pretty easily just stack the box and shut down whatever offense BC has. And any major dude will tell you that you can't move the ball effectively when that happens.
It's necessary to count the Noles' subtractions first: the three most-targeted receivers, a two-time All-American running back, an All-American tackle, and a starting guard are gone from the offense. Defensive end DeMarcus Walker accumulated 16.0 sacks last season, and he's gone too, along with a starting cornerback.
Otherwise though: I'm pretty confident. It'll be hard to replace Roderick Johnson at tackle, but five linemen return who started five or more games last year, including center Alec Eberle, who has started 19 straight and was voted to the preseason All-ACC First Team. Now-sophomore Deandre Francois did quite well as a passer and a runner. Nyqwan Murray and Auden Tate are effective receivers who got plenty of chances to play. Jacques Patrick was no Dalvin Cook, but any back who averages 5.7 yards per carry in a decent sample deserves some respect. And to pick up any of Patrick's slack, there's Cam Akers, the country's second-best prospect last Signing Day. It's hard to see the FSU offense even coming close to falling apart.
The defense, meanwhile, suffers the loss of just two starters. The biggest transitional concern, the pass rush, seems like it'll be just fine. Linemen Derrick Nnadi, Josh Sweat, and Brian Burns all finished 2016 with 6.0 sacks or more, so while Walker will be missed, it looks like whatever decline occurs will be relatively small. For a defense that was a respectable 37th in yards per play and 44th in points per game (they would have ranked 21st in the latter without Lamar Jackson), and that is built on a lot of formerly big-name recruits, it's easy to see major improvement mean a defense that's good enough to win the ACC – or something bigger.
The biggest obstacle in FSU's way to the Playoff is their schedule: playing Alabama and Florida out-of-conference is mighty tough, and most of the normal slate isn't generous either. Miami, Louisville, and Clemson are the other three best teams in the conference, and they all will be in the Noles' way. The middle of the ACC is better than it once was, too; there aren't many pushovers. If one wanted to find two or three losses on the schedule, he or she could without much problem.
The reigning champions, Clemson, need to regroup on offense before they can take another shot at the crown. Only two first-team linemen depart, but the skill players that led the title-winning team are few. Deshaun Watson: gone, replaced by a quarterback with 18 college pass attempts. Jordan Leggett: gone, replaced by a career special teamer. Wayne Gallman: gone, replaced by a running back who hasn't run for a touchdown in two years. Mike Williams: gone. Artavis Scott: gone.
I'm willing to guess the new guys will perform pretty well (the receiving corps, despite its losses, is a real strength); Dabo Swinney gets good recruits, and it's worth remembering his team just won the national championship. They probably won't be one of the best units in the country though, and that means a significant drop-off.
If the Tigers do claw themselves into the Playoff somehow, it will be because of an outstanding defense. Last year, opponents averaged just 4.6 yards per play. While some huge contributors graduated, that didn't leave the group bare at all. Christian Wilkins, Dexter Lawrence, and Clelin Ferrell are three-fourths of a formidable defensive line. Kendall Joseph and Dorian O'Daniel combined for 22.5 tackles for loss, and they again make up two-thirds of the linebackers. Despite losing its two best players, the secondary features talented players like safety Van Smith, who finished third on the team with tackles, and corner Ryan Carter, who broke up seven passes.
Moving the ball against Clemson should be hard for all but the best offenses in FBS, and that alone should mean another solid season. The offense may not settle itself for a little while, and that could mean early losses – the Tigers' first five games include Auburn, Louisville, and Virginia Tech – but there's enough ability there to keep things close against good opponents until it does.
Lamar Jackson scored 51 touchdowns in 2016. Just twelve players have done better, and just Tim Tebow did so in his second year of school like Jackson. That is truly remarkable. Any team that has Jackson automatically has the biggest cheat code in college football.
But you still have to put pieces around him, and Lousville lost a lot of pieces over the offseason. Jackson's three favorite targets all graduated, and so did running back Brandon Radcliff, who averaged 6.5 yards per carry. Worse, the Cardinals, who already had major pocket protection issues, need new starters all along the interior of their offensive line. The regular lineup missed one start between the five of them all season, meaning there isn't much of any playing experience between the tackles. Jackson has a penchant for making things happen by himself, but he'll be as alone as ever this year. A really good defense means Louisville will still win games. However, a New Year's Six bowl seems unlikely.
The NC State defense was quite effective last season, limiting teams to 5.1 yards per play. With few departures (all but three starters are back), it will stay that way, but there could be issues in the secondary. Opponents already were better in the air than on the ground; if they face a lot of passes, it may catch up to them. Also worrying, albeit more in the long term: eight projected defensive starters are seniors. The youth should get as many reps as possible now to limit next year's decline.
Offensively, the Wolfpack was unremarkable and average, but this side of the ball also returns most of its starters. H-back Jaylen Samuels is their biggest weapon, leading the team in catches each of the last two seasons and running for 700 yards over his first three years. Quarterback Ryan Finley played pretty well in his first season, and with Samuels and most of his other favorite targets back, he could really break out.
A tough schedule will depress the win total, but NC State has eight-win talent. With a few breaks, they might get there again.
Syracuse is banking on the power of experience to help them for the next two seasons. Fifteen of 22 starters are back from Dino Babers's debut, and all but six of those 15 figure to be part of the 2018 Orange. In the meantime, Syracuse won't be that good, but this year should show progress.
Quarterback Eric Dungey relied heavily on a pair of receivers who combined for 253 targets, and one of them, Ervin Phillips, returns. Steve Ishmael is likely to take up the Number 2 role, though neither came close to the departed Amba Etta-Tawo's 1,482 yards and 14 touchdowns. One of them, or one of the many underclassmen below them, needs to take over as the team's new scoring threat, especially since nothing got done on the ground last year. Running back Dontae Strickland should benefit from continuity up front, but it seems unlikely the team that finished 123rd in FBS in yards per carry would suddenly be adept at running the ball. The Syracuse offense, as you can see, is still kind of figuring things out.
On the other side of the ball, it's still pretty young. On the projected two-deep, there are 10 sophomores, six of whom are expected to start. A trio of seniors fill the linebacking group, with two of them (Parris Bennett and Zaire Franklin, combined 161.5 tackles, 16.5 for loss) looking especially capable. The secondary has plenty of options but no standouts. (Oddly, safeties Daivon Ellison and Rodney Williams are listed as second-stringers despite decent seasons. Williams can be explained by the return of original starter Antwan Cordy; I can't figure out Ellison.) Conversely, sophomore tackle Chris Slayton shows promise as a pass rusher after getting 4.0 sacks and 10.0 TFLs.
This whole team is a work in progress at the moment. Bowl eligibility is a nice goal for now. It's very conceivable, though, that Babers leads the Orange to a solid season a year from now.
Wake Forest and Boston College are two teams desperately needing some kind of offensive punch. The Deacons are in the right spot for such a thing, seeing as how all but literally one player who started for them on offense last year is still on their roster. (That's right, 21 of those 22 players return.) The problem, of course, is that those players just had a pretty poor season, but as I've said before, I'm a believer in year-to-year development. I'm not going to pretend they'll suddenly be good – with their schedule, they could lose 10 games – but last year's defense dragged Wake Forest to a 6-6 record. With more points going up on their side of the scoreboard, that could mean something better. (Again, probably not with the games on their schedule. But hey! If you don't have hope, what do you have?)
To the northeast, the dudes at Boston College don't have as much going for them. Before you even get to their fledgling offense, you have to look at their schedule and ask the same thing as with Wake Forest: where do the wins come from? UConn is dreadful enough to assume a victory, it's possible (but maybe unwise) to think the same way of the two MAC opponents, and Wake and Virginia should be toss-ups at least. That's a near-definite win, a couple probables, and a couple maybes. This is going to a rough year.
Anyway: for a run-first offense, the Eagles were pretty rotten at running the ball. Specifically, they finished just a fifth of a yard ahead of Syracuse, whom we admonished not long ago for their rushing incabapilities. Three starting linemen return, which may lead to slight improvement and allow the backs to get into the open field a little more often. (Running the ball, BC ranked 32nd in Football Outsiders's Isolated Points Per Play stat, a measurement of explosiveness. Usually, that can be credited to good skill play far more than effective blocking.) Whether they can take advantage of a likely improved receiver corps is frankly a mystery, as the leading options for quarterback are graduate Darius Wade (30 of 61 on career pass attempts) and redshirt freshman Anthony Brown (three-star dual-threat Class of 2016 prospect).
Within a few weeks, after seeing what the eventual quarterback has, opponents could pretty easily just stack the box and shut down whatever offense BC has. And any major dude will tell you that you can't move the ball effectively when that happens.
Coastal
Predicted Standings:
- Miami
- Virginia Tech
- Georgia Tech
- Pitt
- North Carolina
- Duke
- Virginia
For most of the Coastal contenders, the defining word is "turnover." Especially offensively, there are some major holes to fill, meaning that the team that deals with these changes best, or whose defense carries the weight best, will probably be the one headed for Charlotte in December.
Miami needs a couple of spots on the roster to fill in to win the Coastal: quarterback and secondary.
To the former: junior Malik Rosier will replace Brad Kaaya, the Hurricanes' all-time leader in passing yards. Rosier has thrown passes in games, but the bulk of those were two years ago, which isn't very informative. I'm not sure anyone knows how he'll do, but with an experienced receiving corps and a pair of talented running backs, Rosier does not need to be much better than competent.
To the latter: Miami's three leading tacklers were senior defensive backs last year, but a handful of younger players got enough playing time to not be totally lost if they're needed to contribute more this season. Rover Jacquan Johnson especially showed some ability. With an otherwise strong defense (look out for sophomore rush end Joe Jackson) and more on offense than their biggest threat in the division, Virginia Tech, I consider them slight favorites.
Few quarterbacks in the country were as valuable to their teams as Jerod Evans was to Virginia Tech. The former Air Force Falcon rushed for 1,008 yards (minus sack yardage) and threw for 3,552, totaling 41 touchdowns. That was enough for Evans to go pro before exhausting his eligibility (a decision which hasn't really worked out for him so far), meaning the Hokies turn to redshirt freshman Josh Jackson.
Predicting how a guy does in his first exposure to college opposition is always dicey, but it usually helps if he has a collection of experienced, proven players around him. Jackson does not. After receiver Cam Phillips, no returning Hokie was targeted more than 25 times, and just three were targeted more than six times. Travon McMillian is an okay running back, but Evans was the best player on the team at running the ball. A capable line and Ford are the surest things about this offense.
Fortunately, Virginia Tech has an excellent defense. The Hokies finished 20th in the country in yards per play allowed, in large part because of two great linebackers: Andrew Motuapuaka and Tremaine Edmunds combined for 163.0 tackles, 24.0 for loss, 6.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, seven pass breakups, and four picks. Motuapuaka and Edmunds each return, flanked by talented defensive backs such as Brandon Facyson, who led the team with 11 pass breakups. There are gaps along the line, but otherwise, this is a deep unit. With a slightly easier cross-division draw than Miami (I'd prefer Boston College and Clemson to Syracuse and Florida State), I can definitely imagine Virginia Tech taking the Coastal.
The teams just above and below Georgia Tech all have continuity problems on at least one side of the ball, but that problem does not apply to the Yellow Jackets. Eight offensive players who started six or more games last year are back for this season, including running backs Dedrick Mills and Marcus Marshall, who combined for just under 1,400 yards on 248 carries. The new quarterback, Matthew Jordan, got plenty of snaps in both his freshman and sophomore seasons, including a start against Virginia Tech last year, so the transition from longtime signal caller Justin Thomas to Jordan should be relatively smooth.
Eight defensive starters return as well, which should mean improvement for a group that was below average despite playing with an offense whose slow pace and aversion to passing should have given them some extra time to breathe between series. Corner Lance Austin, who broke up 12 passes last season and intercepted an additional three, leads a secondary that still limited big plays for a respectable 7.0 yards per pass attempt.
If the defense can just keep things close, the Jackets' offense can take care of the rest in a lot of cases. A difficult out-of-conference schedule (Tennessee and Georgia will be tough, and UCF is dangerous enough to take seriously) puts a cap on the overall record, but Georgia Tech will be right in the division race.
To an extent, I'm willing to trust a defensively challenged team to handle a schedule full of opponents going through new offensive personnel – if, of course, they have the firepower of their own to make up for those problems. And Pitt's recent history suggests they do. The 2017 Panthers will not be the same team that finished 10th in points per game in 2016 after the departures of Nathan Peterman, James Conner, All-ACC tackle Adam Bisnowaty, and All-American guard Dorian Johnson. But they will still do well enough.
Former USC quarterback Max Browne lost his job to Sam Darnold for multiple reasons, but perhaps the biggest reason was that Sam Darnold sat behind him on the depth chart. While Browne was unimpressive in limited time, it's conceivable he'll do well for Pitt. A 62.4 completion percentage probably translates a little bit, doesn't it? Especially with Jester Weah (10 touchdowns, 24.2 yards per catch) and the versatile Quadree Henderson (11.0 yards per catch and 10.5 yards per rush) out wide? The matter of Conner's successor seems a little more uncertain, but Chawntez Moss showed promise in his freshman year, averaging 5.4 yards in 42 carries. And returning linemen Alex Bookser and Brian O'Neill are no All-Americans, but they still got some all-conference recognition. Pitt's offensive capabilities have been sapped, but not depleted.
Now, their defense is going to keep them from winning some games. (The Penn State and Oklahoma State games could be back-to-back barn-burners or blowouts.) When you lose seven starters from a unit as bad is theirs was against the pass (110th in yards per attempt, 127th in yards per game), your ceiling is apparent. Pitt probably isn't winning the Coastal.
Few, if any, offenses in the country deal with as much turnover as UNC does. One of the best quarterbacks of the country is gone; five of his six favorite targets, including a 1,112-yard receiver and a pair of very talented running backs. Two all-conference linemen left too. That officially means five starters return, but what really matters is where none do. The returning leader in carries took the ball 20 times last year, and one player returning was targeted 20 times or more as a receiver. The accumulation of good recruiting classes, as well as LSU transfer quarterback Brandon Harris, will soften the impact of so much inexperience, but it will not eliminate that impact.
So, as with other teams, it's up to the North Carolina defense to keep the Tar Heels in the hunt. Fortunately for them, there is an abundance of experience here. Unlike on the other side of the ball, UNC spread out the snaps; 15 defenders recorded more than 15 tackles last year, and all but four of those players are back for 2017. Defensive backs Dominquie Green and Des Lawrence are big losses, but on a maturing and already capable unit, their absence will not sting quite as much.
As much as I like their defense, I think the hole the offense puts UNC in is too big to deal with. Give it a year, and that heavy reliance on last year's class of juniors and seniors should correct itself. For now, the Tar Heels will probably be looking up at a few teams they beat last season.
Duke improves on offense about as much as they decline on defense. Three-fifths of the offensive line and most of the skill players come back, including a now-sophomore quarterback and the two most used receivers. Despite a problem at running back, the Blue Devils can go from passable to average with the ball in their hands.
Conversely, five starters from a defense that could stop the run adequately (4.5 yards per carry) and got torched by the pass (8.9 yards per attempt) have departed, leaving reason for concern in the secondary.
Add it together, and you get basically the same result, even if it looks a little different: a four- or five-win team.
Virginia faces an absolutely punishing schedule this year. Expect wins against William & Mary and UConn, but other than that? S&P+ sees one more game (versus Boston College) in which the Hoos are the favorites, and two where their win expectancy is 40 percent or better. (I'd argue it should be one, since I think Indiana is a fair bit better than UVA.) At Boise and at Louisville will be embarrassing, and the season-closer against Virginia Tech won't be much better.
With seniors at a few positions on offense, including quarterback, this is essentially another transition year. More youth exists on the defense, but it's still heavy on upperclassmen. I'm sure Bronco Mendenhall knew what he was getting into, but this looks like it will be a long rebuild.
* * *
Up next: the SEC.
A heaping amount of credit for statistical information goes to Bill Connelly, SB Nation's stats emperor and creator of the S&P+ analytics system. Sports-Reference's data also came in handy.
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