Mountain West
It's a race to the top of the Mountain, and a race to stay out of the bottom of the West.
Mountain
Predicted Standings:
After an embarrassing 44-7 defeat in the Rocky Mountain Showdown to open the season, Colorado State was one of the stronger teams in the Mountain West. They faced problems against the conference's best (they lost by 21 to Wyoming, five to Boise State, and 3 to Air Force) and let Utah State hang with them, but small margins of defeat, blowouts of lightweights, and a surprising 32-point rout of San Diego State suggested there was more to CSU than their 7-6 record.
The Ram offense put up a 15th-ranked 6.7 yards per play and a 28th-ranked points per game, which was enough to outpace opponents when needed. And while they preferred the run, CSU didn't succeed through a one-dimensional approach: they averaged 2.2 passing touchdowns per game against 2.3 running touchdowns, attacking teams with wideout Michael Gallup and the running back pairing of Dalyn Dawkins and Izzy Hawkins. With how little Mike Bobo relied on anyone other than Gallup or now-junior Olabisi Johnson, I expect a similar level of production despite a shortage of experienced receivers beyond those two.
Just two big defenders (linebacker Kevin Davis and defensive back Tyree Simmons) have moved on, meaning there's nothing but experience on that side. Being below average in 2016, the defense shouldn't suddenly be the MWC's best or anything, but it looks like it will be significantly stronger. CSU should be one of the two best teams in their division.
More than a decade of evidence suggests it's generally not smart to bet against Boise State. The Broncos' only two conference losses were by a combined nine points, and the only time a Mountain West team even challenged them otherwise was the aforementioned five-point win over the Colorado State. Out-of-conference was a bit different – aside from a blowout of Louisiana-Lafayette, they netted -1 point over four games – but it's almost a shame they didn't get to play for the league championship.
This year, the one thing holding Boise back from status as the best team in the conference is massive turnover on defense. Three starting linebackers, three top DBs, and a starting defensive end all graduated. Their replacements are no greenhorns, and the line was kept intact, but that's a lot of important personnel gone. Knowing this program, the defense should fine; to repeat last year's performance, it needs to be much better than fine. That narrows the gap between the Broncos and everyone behind them.
I think Colorado State and Boise State are comparable teams, but the Rams have the lighter schedule: home games against Nevada and San Jose State are pretty much the same as hosting Nevada and going to Fresno State, but CSU's lone cross-division road game is at Hawaii, a far easier task than San Diego State on the road. Plus, when these two face each other in November, the game will be in Fort Collins instead of on Boise's Blue Turf. That should be enough to separate the Mountain's favorites.
Wyoming has their three favorite passing targets to replace. Good thing Craig Bohl likes to run the ball. Running back Brian Hill and quarterback Josh Allen (a capable passer too) both are quite adept with the ball in their hands and will have an experienced line to lead them. An offense needs more than that, certainly, but this one has a good starting point. If the defense can limit the big plays, they return enough players to keep the Cowboys respectable.
At Air Force, consistency is the trademark: just once in 10 years has Troy Calhoun missed a bowl game. I don't want to trust next year's team just because there are so many departures, especially on the defense, but at this point, there's not really any choice but to trust it. The Falcons will be okay.
Since Gary Andersen left for Wisconsin, it's been easy to see a steady decline at Utah State. Using record and Sports-Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS; zero is average), the Aggies have taken a big downward turn:
2012 (Andersen's last year): 11-2, 10.71 SRS
2013: 9-5, 6.70
2014: 10-4, 3.63
2015: 6-7, -1.23
2016: 3-9, -5.99
It's probably unfair to compare Matt Wells to Andersen, who gave a historically poor program arguably its best team ever, but it's looked more every season like Wells wasn't the man to keep up his predecessor's performance. Last year's team might not have been as poor as its disastrous campaign might suggest, having lost four games by a combined 18 points, but poor performances against superior competition don't make them look very good.
However, there's room for optimism. If the new offensive coordinator decides to actually try running the ball, quarterback Kent Myers and running back Tonny Lindsey should reward him. If not, Myers's two favorite receiving targets were a freshman and a sophomore last season. And while performance overall has slid under Wells, the Utah State defense has certainly remained at least a competent unit. I'm inclined to think that should continue despite a decent number of departures.
It's not too hard to foresee bowl eligibility. (S&P+ projects 6.6 wins.) I'm not sure how possible I think a 13th game is, but I'd be surprised if the Aggies don't improve even a little in 2017.
New Mexico, home to one of FBS's worst defenses, lost a lot of defensive players: just one of their top nine tacklers last season didn't graduate. The offense should keep clicking. The odds feel long that's enough to make up for all the points the Lobos concede.
The Ram offense put up a 15th-ranked 6.7 yards per play and a 28th-ranked points per game, which was enough to outpace opponents when needed. And while they preferred the run, CSU didn't succeed through a one-dimensional approach: they averaged 2.2 passing touchdowns per game against 2.3 running touchdowns, attacking teams with wideout Michael Gallup and the running back pairing of Dalyn Dawkins and Izzy Hawkins. With how little Mike Bobo relied on anyone other than Gallup or now-junior Olabisi Johnson, I expect a similar level of production despite a shortage of experienced receivers beyond those two.
Just two big defenders (linebacker Kevin Davis and defensive back Tyree Simmons) have moved on, meaning there's nothing but experience on that side. Being below average in 2016, the defense shouldn't suddenly be the MWC's best or anything, but it looks like it will be significantly stronger. CSU should be one of the two best teams in their division.
More than a decade of evidence suggests it's generally not smart to bet against Boise State. The Broncos' only two conference losses were by a combined nine points, and the only time a Mountain West team even challenged them otherwise was the aforementioned five-point win over the Colorado State. Out-of-conference was a bit different – aside from a blowout of Louisiana-Lafayette, they netted -1 point over four games – but it's almost a shame they didn't get to play for the league championship.
This year, the one thing holding Boise back from status as the best team in the conference is massive turnover on defense. Three starting linebackers, three top DBs, and a starting defensive end all graduated. Their replacements are no greenhorns, and the line was kept intact, but that's a lot of important personnel gone. Knowing this program, the defense should fine; to repeat last year's performance, it needs to be much better than fine. That narrows the gap between the Broncos and everyone behind them.
I think Colorado State and Boise State are comparable teams, but the Rams have the lighter schedule: home games against Nevada and San Jose State are pretty much the same as hosting Nevada and going to Fresno State, but CSU's lone cross-division road game is at Hawaii, a far easier task than San Diego State on the road. Plus, when these two face each other in November, the game will be in Fort Collins instead of on Boise's Blue Turf. That should be enough to separate the Mountain's favorites.
Wyoming has their three favorite passing targets to replace. Good thing Craig Bohl likes to run the ball. Running back Brian Hill and quarterback Josh Allen (a capable passer too) both are quite adept with the ball in their hands and will have an experienced line to lead them. An offense needs more than that, certainly, but this one has a good starting point. If the defense can limit the big plays, they return enough players to keep the Cowboys respectable.
At Air Force, consistency is the trademark: just once in 10 years has Troy Calhoun missed a bowl game. I don't want to trust next year's team just because there are so many departures, especially on the defense, but at this point, there's not really any choice but to trust it. The Falcons will be okay.
Since Gary Andersen left for Wisconsin, it's been easy to see a steady decline at Utah State. Using record and Sports-Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS; zero is average), the Aggies have taken a big downward turn:
2012 (Andersen's last year): 11-2, 10.71 SRS
2013: 9-5, 6.70
2014: 10-4, 3.63
2015: 6-7, -1.23
2016: 3-9, -5.99
It's probably unfair to compare Matt Wells to Andersen, who gave a historically poor program arguably its best team ever, but it's looked more every season like Wells wasn't the man to keep up his predecessor's performance. Last year's team might not have been as poor as its disastrous campaign might suggest, having lost four games by a combined 18 points, but poor performances against superior competition don't make them look very good.
However, there's room for optimism. If the new offensive coordinator decides to actually try running the ball, quarterback Kent Myers and running back Tonny Lindsey should reward him. If not, Myers's two favorite receiving targets were a freshman and a sophomore last season. And while performance overall has slid under Wells, the Utah State defense has certainly remained at least a competent unit. I'm inclined to think that should continue despite a decent number of departures.
It's not too hard to foresee bowl eligibility. (S&P+ projects 6.6 wins.) I'm not sure how possible I think a 13th game is, but I'd be surprised if the Aggies don't improve even a little in 2017.
New Mexico, home to one of FBS's worst defenses, lost a lot of defensive players: just one of their top nine tacklers last season didn't graduate. The offense should keep clicking. The odds feel long that's enough to make up for all the points the Lobos concede.
West
Predicted Standings:
- San Diego State
- Hawaii
- UNLV
- San Jose State
- Fresno State
- Nevada
In all but a small handful of games last year, San Diego State was dominant. Carried by a punishing defense and one of the nation's best running backs in Donnell Pumphrey, the Aztecs really could have made a New Year's Six bowl if not for their few slip-ups.
Should SDSU expect to repeat as conference champions, they're in good shape to do so. If the new offensive line is even passable, that means bad news for opponents: despite Pumphrey's departure, the Aztecs have a pair of great backs in Rashaad Penny and Juwan Washington that, if they don't pick up right where he left off, should still blow by defenders. When passing is necessary, the offense looks like it can cope. Defensively, there should be some drop-off, but the return of some of their best players should keep opposing scores low. A repeat of 2016's heights is difficult to imagine; another division title in the meager West looks likely.
It's exceedingly difficult to just make .500 at Hawaii, and yet Nick Rolovich did it last season. The biggest pieces on a roughly average (but decent by conference standards) offense return, and so do some good defenders, though the latter might not be enough to look passable. Six wins and a few shootouts might be the ceiling for now.
UNLV looks ready to become the MWC's newest all-offense, no defense team after a number of young players got reps on the offense last season, but seniors took up the bulk of the defensive two-deep. (Fans of four-hour barn-burners should tune in November 18 when the Rebels visit New Mexico.) There's not really any chance at anything more than a bowl game here.
Trying to drag itself out of the bottom of the conference, San Jose State turns to the young Brent Brennan. The Spartans look like they have better short-term assets than their competition for fourth place does: junior running back Malik Roberson put up 5.1 yards per carry last year and will work behind an experienced (but flawed) line; and a number of the team's defenders last year were freshmen or sophomores, including linebacker Frank Ginda. Even bowl eligibility will be hard though, especially after drawing Colorado State and Wyoming in the cross-division schedule.
As a defense-first team, Fresno State is a rare beast in the Mountain West. That could change soon though, having hired offense-first Jeff Tedford as the new coach and having lost their best defensive players. If the many young players on what was a wretched offense last season have developed quickly, the Bulldogs have a shot at looking passable right now. They definitely won't look good for a long while.
In Jay Norvell's first year at Nevada, he has some pieces to start with on the defense and a pretty okay top receiver in Wyatt Demps. Otherwise, there's not much. This rebuild is going to take some time.
Should SDSU expect to repeat as conference champions, they're in good shape to do so. If the new offensive line is even passable, that means bad news for opponents: despite Pumphrey's departure, the Aztecs have a pair of great backs in Rashaad Penny and Juwan Washington that, if they don't pick up right where he left off, should still blow by defenders. When passing is necessary, the offense looks like it can cope. Defensively, there should be some drop-off, but the return of some of their best players should keep opposing scores low. A repeat of 2016's heights is difficult to imagine; another division title in the meager West looks likely.
It's exceedingly difficult to just make .500 at Hawaii, and yet Nick Rolovich did it last season. The biggest pieces on a roughly average (but decent by conference standards) offense return, and so do some good defenders, though the latter might not be enough to look passable. Six wins and a few shootouts might be the ceiling for now.
UNLV looks ready to become the MWC's newest all-offense, no defense team after a number of young players got reps on the offense last season, but seniors took up the bulk of the defensive two-deep. (Fans of four-hour barn-burners should tune in November 18 when the Rebels visit New Mexico.) There's not really any chance at anything more than a bowl game here.
Trying to drag itself out of the bottom of the conference, San Jose State turns to the young Brent Brennan. The Spartans look like they have better short-term assets than their competition for fourth place does: junior running back Malik Roberson put up 5.1 yards per carry last year and will work behind an experienced (but flawed) line; and a number of the team's defenders last year were freshmen or sophomores, including linebacker Frank Ginda. Even bowl eligibility will be hard though, especially after drawing Colorado State and Wyoming in the cross-division schedule.
As a defense-first team, Fresno State is a rare beast in the Mountain West. That could change soon though, having hired offense-first Jeff Tedford as the new coach and having lost their best defensive players. If the many young players on what was a wretched offense last season have developed quickly, the Bulldogs have a shot at looking passable right now. They definitely won't look good for a long while.
In Jay Norvell's first year at Nevada, he has some pieces to start with on the defense and a pretty okay top receiver in Wyatt Demps. Otherwise, there's not much. This rebuild is going to take some time.
* * *
American
In the best mid-major conference, one division is wide open, and the other is between one or two teams with new coaches.
West
Predicted Standings:
- Memphis
- Houston
- Navy
- Tulsa
- SMU
- Tulane
Houston and Memphis' rosters are polar opposites each other: a bruising defensive team led by a freakish, former blue-chip tackle, with an offense just trying to survive the departure of their excellent dual-threat quarterback; and a high-powered, multi-dimensional scoring machine that has to compensate for a weakened defense. It should be a lot of fun when these two meet on October 19 for what might be a de facto West Division title game.
It's hard to pick between them, but Memphis feels safer. The Tigers return plenty of players on their superb offense: a stable of effective running backs headlined by Doroland Dorceus, their top three receivers, and the conductor, quarterback Riley Ferguson. It's under slightly new management after co-coordinator Chip Long left for Notre Dame, but Mike Norvell just condensed (former UNT coach) Darrell Dickey's title to leave out "co-." There's less continuity in the Memphis secondary, which could pose serious problems but probably not wreck the defense. Which means it shouldn't wreck the season.
It's hard to pick between them, but Memphis feels safer. The Tigers return plenty of players on their superb offense: a stable of effective running backs headlined by Doroland Dorceus, their top three receivers, and the conductor, quarterback Riley Ferguson. It's under slightly new management after co-coordinator Chip Long left for Notre Dame, but Mike Norvell just condensed (former UNT coach) Darrell Dickey's title to leave out "co-." There's less continuity in the Memphis secondary, which could pose serious problems but probably not wreck the defense. Which means it shouldn't wreck the season.
Houston has a couple weapons in the passing game coming back, but make no mistake: their offense functioned because of Greg Ward, Jr. In addition to throwing for over 3,500 yards last season, Ward was the Cougars' best ballcarrier, averaging 4.5 yards per rush (excluding sacks). Perhaps Duke Catalon comes along or Ward's successor settles in quickly, but it's difficult to see Houston winning through anything other than their defense.
And what a defense it is. If you gave a guy the ball against Houston last season, he would be quickly devoured. Just nine teams in FBS allowed fewer yards per play. Just Alabama was better against the run. Ed Oliver, with his 22.5 tackles for loss (22.5! As a true freshman!), was obviously the headliner, but around him were players like linebackers Steven Taylor and Tyus Bowser (the team's joint-leaders in sacks, with 8.5) or corners Howard Wilson and Jeremy Winchester (a combined 18 pass breakups, plus five picks to Wilson). Taylor and Bowser are gone, but the Houston defense remains formidable, especially in the secondary. It will be difficult for teams like Rice or Tulane to even get on the board, which is why the Cougars will remain conference contenders in the short-term even after losing Tom Herman.
It's hard to pick against Navy. Since Ken Niumatalolo's first season in 2008, the Midshipmen have gone 77-41, gone to eight bowl games, and been the only winners of the AAC West.
While the other service academies run the option, not since 2012 has Air Force or Army ran for more yards on a per-carry basis than Navy. Last year's offense was the best of Niumatalolo's tenure, averaging 6.7 yards per play and 37.9 points per game despite losing four-year starter Keenan Reynolds. This year's faces the usual amount of turnover, but I have a feeling it will do just fine.
If the other side of the ball improves with experience, like I think it very easily could, Navy won't be more than a close game or two from a third straight conference title game appearance.
Tulsa's success in 2017 hinges on their ability to break in new talent at offensive skill positions. Quarterback Dane Evans, receivers Keevan Lucas and Josh Atkinson, and running back James Flanders were responsible for the bulk of Tulsa's high performance, so replacing them is vital. If it's a smooth transition, expect the Golden Hurricane to again compete for the division.
In the past two years, SMU and Tulane have made smart hires in Chad Morris and Willie Fritz. Last season showed that each of them are still a while away from competing. The Mustangs, having recruited better and having fielded a younger team a year ago, look better in the interim. They could climb to fourth right now if Tulsa slips up. I expect SMU to be conference contenders in 2018. The Green Wave return a lot of pieces from a strong defense, but they'll have a tough time moving he ball.
East
Predicted Standings:
- South Florida (conference championship game winners)
- Temple
- Central Florida
- Cincinnati
- East Carolina
- Connecticut
USF absolutely lit up their opponents last season. Against the best defenses on their schedule by yards per play (Temple, Cincinnati, and Florida State), they averaged 36.7 points; only Temple was able to keep them to 30 or fewer. And the leader of this attack, quarterback Quinton Flowers, is back for his senior season along with most of his receivers. The rest of the American might not still be standing when USF is through with them.
Now, there are definitely some concessions to be made before handing over the trophy. Even though Charlie Strong was an excellent hire to replace the departing Willie Taggart, any change in head coach between seasons should be reason for tempered expectations in the new guy's first year. Running back Marlon Mack would have been a senior this year too, but he took his 6.8 yards per carry to the NFL.
And the defense was a problem last year. Too many times, the offense had to win shootouts. Fortunately, there aren't a bunch of freshmen and sophomores expected to make tackles, but the unit has some ways to go to be trusted.
The defense in the conference that has earned the most trust belongs to Temple. Even though they lost several top players (like Haason Reddick), I can't help but believe in the Owls. There is so much room to fall from a defense that finished 11th in FBS in points per game and fourth in yards per play. They have some unknowns on offense and may face some difficulties under a new head coach, so predicting another conference championship might be unwise, but they're still solid. Nobody below them really has a shot to catch them outside of UCF, so they could at least be in the mix for another title game berth.
Under Scott "Josh Homme impersonator" Frost, Central Florida rebounded impressively from a winless season, going 6-6 before a respectable bowl loss to Arkansas State. Should that progress continue?
Well, yes, but it may not show until 2018. Under George O'Leary, a young Golden Knights roster was 128th and 112th in offensive and defensive S&P+, and under Frost, it improved to 117th and 30th, respectively. It also got a year older, which meant a lot of seniors occupied the top of the depth chart. That should make you worry about a group that loses big chunks of its secondary and three of its four starting linebackers. Even if the offense continues its progress, it's not like it got better by much in the first place. It's very conceivable that UCF's record stays steady or even worsens by a game or two. Like SMU and Tulane in the West, we might have to wait another year before UCF has a legitimate chance at the East title.
The Tommy Tuberville era at Cincinnati ended in flames in 2016, with five straight losses to close the season. The Bearcats recruited decently under him, and he left behind a young, encouraging defensive core, but there are few proven contributors on offense. While I'm sure fans will prefer native Ohioan Luke Fickell to Tuberville, it may be a couple seasons before their team is anything other than mediocre.
East Carolina got greedy when they fired Ruffin McNeill. While there were some complaints about the alumnus's in-game management, he finished his six years with a solid 42-34 record, including a 10-3 fourth season. But when the Pirates went 5-7 in 2015, ECU decided it was time to make a change.
So in came Montgomery, who had a rough debut season. The Pirates lost nine games, and it wasn't a fluke: seven of the losses were by 16 points or more, and in all but four games did opponents put up 30 points or more. At least ECU could score a bit, but it was far too little: they averaged 27 points per game, 75th in the country. The offense could get even worse this year, too, as most of the key starters at skill positions were seniors. (The lackluster season simultaneously gave ammunition both to those in favor of McNeill's firing and to those opposed: either he left the cupboard bare for his successor, or such a disappointment wouldn't have happened under McNeill.)
A small handful of junior college signees and graduate transfers reinforce both sides of the ball as stopgaps, but it probably won't be enough. Montgomery might rebuild East Carolina (his first full class finished sixth in the conference); it's not happening overnight.
Evidently trying to channel the spirits of the relative successes of the 2000s, this offseason, Connecticut replaced Bob Diaco with their old coach, Randy Edsall. Before leaving for Maryland, Edsall ran off a string of eight- or nine-win seasons, finishing his UConn tenure 70-63. Bringing him back was about as dull a move as the athletic department could have made, but it's not like anyone else they've hired has shown they can win at the FBS level consistently.
Edsall takes over one of the very worst teams in the country: their three wins (against Maine, Virginia, and Cincinnati) were by a combined 17 points, largely because the Huskies just couldn't find the end zone. Only six offenses were worse by yards per play, and nobody was worse by points per game. The defense was a fair bit closer to average, so it's not like the new/old staff has nothing to work with. That is still not at all enough for UConn to resemble even a passable team.
Now, there are definitely some concessions to be made before handing over the trophy. Even though Charlie Strong was an excellent hire to replace the departing Willie Taggart, any change in head coach between seasons should be reason for tempered expectations in the new guy's first year. Running back Marlon Mack would have been a senior this year too, but he took his 6.8 yards per carry to the NFL.
And the defense was a problem last year. Too many times, the offense had to win shootouts. Fortunately, there aren't a bunch of freshmen and sophomores expected to make tackles, but the unit has some ways to go to be trusted.
The defense in the conference that has earned the most trust belongs to Temple. Even though they lost several top players (like Haason Reddick), I can't help but believe in the Owls. There is so much room to fall from a defense that finished 11th in FBS in points per game and fourth in yards per play. They have some unknowns on offense and may face some difficulties under a new head coach, so predicting another conference championship might be unwise, but they're still solid. Nobody below them really has a shot to catch them outside of UCF, so they could at least be in the mix for another title game berth.
Under Scott "Josh Homme impersonator" Frost, Central Florida rebounded impressively from a winless season, going 6-6 before a respectable bowl loss to Arkansas State. Should that progress continue?
Well, yes, but it may not show until 2018. Under George O'Leary, a young Golden Knights roster was 128th and 112th in offensive and defensive S&P+, and under Frost, it improved to 117th and 30th, respectively. It also got a year older, which meant a lot of seniors occupied the top of the depth chart. That should make you worry about a group that loses big chunks of its secondary and three of its four starting linebackers. Even if the offense continues its progress, it's not like it got better by much in the first place. It's very conceivable that UCF's record stays steady or even worsens by a game or two. Like SMU and Tulane in the West, we might have to wait another year before UCF has a legitimate chance at the East title.
The Tommy Tuberville era at Cincinnati ended in flames in 2016, with five straight losses to close the season. The Bearcats recruited decently under him, and he left behind a young, encouraging defensive core, but there are few proven contributors on offense. While I'm sure fans will prefer native Ohioan Luke Fickell to Tuberville, it may be a couple seasons before their team is anything other than mediocre.
East Carolina got greedy when they fired Ruffin McNeill. While there were some complaints about the alumnus's in-game management, he finished his six years with a solid 42-34 record, including a 10-3 fourth season. But when the Pirates went 5-7 in 2015, ECU decided it was time to make a change.
So in came Montgomery, who had a rough debut season. The Pirates lost nine games, and it wasn't a fluke: seven of the losses were by 16 points or more, and in all but four games did opponents put up 30 points or more. At least ECU could score a bit, but it was far too little: they averaged 27 points per game, 75th in the country. The offense could get even worse this year, too, as most of the key starters at skill positions were seniors. (The lackluster season simultaneously gave ammunition both to those in favor of McNeill's firing and to those opposed: either he left the cupboard bare for his successor, or such a disappointment wouldn't have happened under McNeill.)
A small handful of junior college signees and graduate transfers reinforce both sides of the ball as stopgaps, but it probably won't be enough. Montgomery might rebuild East Carolina (his first full class finished sixth in the conference); it's not happening overnight.
Evidently trying to channel the spirits of the relative successes of the 2000s, this offseason, Connecticut replaced Bob Diaco with their old coach, Randy Edsall. Before leaving for Maryland, Edsall ran off a string of eight- or nine-win seasons, finishing his UConn tenure 70-63. Bringing him back was about as dull a move as the athletic department could have made, but it's not like anyone else they've hired has shown they can win at the FBS level consistently.
Edsall takes over one of the very worst teams in the country: their three wins (against Maine, Virginia, and Cincinnati) were by a combined 17 points, largely because the Huskies just couldn't find the end zone. Only six offenses were worse by yards per play, and nobody was worse by points per game. The defense was a fair bit closer to average, so it's not like the new/old staff has nothing to work with. That is still not at all enough for UConn to resemble even a passable team.
* * *
Independents
After two decades of poor football and (perhaps worse) 14 years of losing to Navy, Army finally broke through in 2016. Most of that can be attributed to an astounding turnaround on defense, as the Black Knights went from 103rd in FBS in yards allowed per play (6.1) to 28th (5.1). Most of that strong unit returns for this season, and the key skill players on offense do as well. An easy schedule (FPI ranks it as the 103rd-hardest) should mean another bowl appearance.
In his first year in Provo, Kalani Sitake just about perfectly met BYU's expectations. Just once since 2006 have the Cougars finished with fewer than eight wins, and that exception was a 7-6 year in 2010. They have become a model of consistency even after leaving the Mountain West for independent life.
And it doesn't look like that's changing any time soon: the biggest pieces of what was a stout run defense (opponents ran for 3.5 yards per carry last year) return for this season, and some added experience should boost the lesser, but not terrible, secondary. Finding somebody to pressure the quarterback is important after losing leading pass rusher Sae Tautu (who only totaled 6.0 sacks), and there are a lot of replacements filling in on offense, but I think there's little reason not to trust BYU again. Write off LSU and Wisconsin as losses, and call Utah and Boise State toss-ups; the rest of the schedule (featuring seven MWC opponents) is very traversable.
And it doesn't look like that's changing any time soon: the biggest pieces of what was a stout run defense (opponents ran for 3.5 yards per carry last year) return for this season, and some added experience should boost the lesser, but not terrible, secondary. Finding somebody to pressure the quarterback is important after losing leading pass rusher Sae Tautu (who only totaled 6.0 sacks), and there are a lot of replacements filling in on offense, but I think there's little reason not to trust BYU again. Write off LSU and Wisconsin as losses, and call Utah and Boise State toss-ups; the rest of the schedule (featuring seven MWC opponents) is very traversable.
It's difficult to foresee a future in FBS for Massachusetts. Since making the switch, UMass has gone 10-50 and left the MAC. Without a home for the future and without the clout of other independents, this doesn't feel built to last.
For the time being though, the Minutemen are still here. And with some luck, they might even win five games in 2017. With continuity generally comes improvement, and a lot comes back from last year's team. A young line may hinder the offense, but it's not like it wasn't poor last year. It's conceivable that things start to look up in Amherst (or, apparently, Hadley), even if in the long run, it is pretty bleak.
For the time being though, the Minutemen are still here. And with some luck, they might even win five games in 2017. With continuity generally comes improvement, and a lot comes back from last year's team. A young line may hinder the offense, but it's not like it wasn't poor last year. It's conceivable that things start to look up in Amherst (or, apparently, Hadley), even if in the long run, it is pretty bleak.
Even if last season's team wasn't up to their usual standards, there's no way Notre Dame was as bad as their 4-8 record. Some advanced statistical measures' rankings of the Irish:
Massey: 30th
FEI: 42nd
FPI: 32nd
Sagarin: 51st*
S&P+: 26nd
SRS: 47th
*Sagarin includes FCS teams in its rankings. Two of them, James Madison (33) and North Dakota State (44) placed ahead of Notre Dame.
If you don't believe the computers, consider this: the final margin of eight of their games was eight points or fewer, and they lost seven of them. Unless Brian Kelly is truly entirely incompetent in tight games – and I have a hard time believing he is – 2016 just had to have been an aberration, a rare instance of terrible luck. That is not going to repeat itself.
New offensive coordinator Chip Long will have plenty of toys. Eight starters from the end of last season return, including wide receiver Equanimeous St. Brown, who caught 65.9 percent of the passes thrown to him. The new quarterback, Brandon Wimbush, has been in the program since arriving as the 46th-ranked prospect in the country in 2015. Wimbush threw five passes his freshman year and was redshirted in 2016, so we don't really know how he'll do, but I'm willing to guess that with his pedigree and such a great supporting cast, he'll be at least fine.
Massey: 30th
FEI: 42nd
FPI: 32nd
Sagarin: 51st*
S&P+: 26nd
SRS: 47th
*Sagarin includes FCS teams in its rankings. Two of them, James Madison (33) and North Dakota State (44) placed ahead of Notre Dame.
If you don't believe the computers, consider this: the final margin of eight of their games was eight points or fewer, and they lost seven of them. Unless Brian Kelly is truly entirely incompetent in tight games – and I have a hard time believing he is – 2016 just had to have been an aberration, a rare instance of terrible luck. That is not going to repeat itself.
New offensive coordinator Chip Long will have plenty of toys. Eight starters from the end of last season return, including wide receiver Equanimeous St. Brown, who caught 65.9 percent of the passes thrown to him. The new quarterback, Brandon Wimbush, has been in the program since arriving as the 46th-ranked prospect in the country in 2015. Wimbush threw five passes his freshman year and was redshirted in 2016, so we don't really know how he'll do, but I'm willing to guess that with his pedigree and such a great supporting cast, he'll be at least fine.
Defensive departures are few as well, but the situation isn't quite as good. Last year's team had problems in the secondary, allowing a 61.7 completion percentage. Two defensive backs left, which shouldn't mean horrible things, but still: without a standout pass rusher and without a track record of success, the pass defense should be a concern. Even then, the unit as a whole wasn't atrocious thanks to successful containment of the running game.
The Irish should have a really strong season. They probably aren't Playoff contenders, but 2017 will take Notre Dame back to eight- or nine-win territory.
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Up next: the Big 12.
A heaping amount of credit for statistical information goes to Bill Connelly, SB Nation's stats emperor and creator of the S&P+ analytics system. Sports-Reference's data also came in handy.
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