Ohio State is good. Illinois is bad. Rutgers and Maryland are in the wrong conference. The status quo is alive and well in the Big Ten.
West
Predicted Standings:
- Wisconsin
- Northwestern
- Iowa
- Nebraska
- Minnesota
- Purdue
- Illinois
Despite their linebackers seemingly combusting every week, Wisconsin was one of the top defensive teams of the 2016 season. Only Ohio State, Penn State, and (oddly) Purdue managed to top 17 points against the Badgers, meaning that whatever offensive problems they had were mitigated, if not at times rendered entirely unimportant: against Northwestern, for example, the Wisconsin offense could only muster 4.2 yards per play. They won 21-7 anyway.
To repeat as West title champions, it's not an especially tall task. While a few of the departed letterwinners (Leo Musso, Sojourn Shelton, T.J. Watt) will be really hard to replace, and while the Badgers' bad injury luck has continued with starting linebacker Jack Cichy tearing his ACL, the bulk of their defense is back. When so many depth players got snaps last year, the drop-off should be minimal unless a school of sharks is dropped into the team's whirlpool room. Expect linebacker T.J. Edwards, last year's leading tackler as a sophomore, and safety D'Cota Dixon, to lead the pack.
With an experienced offensive line, a sophomore Alex Hornibrook, and apparently a high-upside freshman running back, last year's underwhelming offense is bound to improve. Add it all up, and there's not really any contest. It's the Badgers' race to lose.
With an experienced offensive line, a sophomore Alex Hornibrook, and apparently a high-upside freshman running back, last year's underwhelming offense is bound to improve. Add it all up, and there's not really any contest. It's the Badgers' race to lose.
Thanks to turnover, Northwestern's defense went from elite to merely good last season, but that problem won't hurt this year's version. Seven starters return, including the excellent safety Godwin Igwebuike, the leading tackler and an adept disruptor of passes. Minus a backup, every other member of the secondary who recorded a tackle is back for 2017. Sophomore Joe Gaziano looks like he can at least partially compensate for the loss of sack leader Ifeadi Odenigbo, and senior Xavier Washington is a decent player as well. Linebacker depth may be an issue after losing Anthony Walker, Jr. and Jaylen Prater, but that's the only hole that concerns me. Even if this defense doesn't reach the heights of 2015's, Northwestern might be able to ride it to success.
While it's not as attention-grabbing, the Wildcat offense could be significantly better than it was last season. Star running back Justin Jackson is the headliner; quarterback Clayton Thorsen is a capable passer and runner, assuming there isn't an opposing jersey in his face. With four of five starting linemen coming back, the 39 sacks they gave up last year should decrease. Even if it's not a great offense, it's enough to win games. I don't think they have a real shot at the West title unless Wisconsin slips up or faces catastrophic injury, but Northwestern is the best dark horse bet you can make.
Even for a program not known for its passing game, Iowa could be quite poor in the air in 2017. Two-year starter C.J. Beathard makes way for sophomore Nathan Stanley, who threw nine passes last year. If Stanley goes down or plays poorly, he is backed up by junior Tyler Wiegers, who has four career pass attempts on his ledger. Receiver Matt VandeBerg, granted a fifth year of eligibility due to injury, was a real asset two years ago, and he should be one again. The problem is that he, running back Akrum Wadley, and Noah Fant are the only returning players with more than one catch last season. Help has arrived in the shapes of Newton native Nick Easley, a former standout at Iowa Western Community College; and Matt Quarells, a graduate transfer from New Mexico with 13 college receptions. Those awaiting the good part will be disappointed.
If they want to move the ball, the Hawkeyes will have to rely on the ground game. Akrum Wadley is a solid means of doing so, having averaged 6.4 yards per carry and scoring 10 touchdowns last year. A clear backup, however, is not here, so he better stay healthy.
Desmond King and Jaleel Johnson are big losses, and their absence may result in a small step backward, but fortunately (for them, at least), Iowa should maintain a strong defense. Eight starters return, including all three linebackers, the star among whom is senior Josey Jewell. Jewell, the Hawkeyes' leader in both tackles and pass breakups, was a finalist for the Butkus Award and enters 2017 as a preseason All-American. He is the team's most valuable player.
Games against Penn State and Ohio State severely limit Iowa's win total. Considering that major offensive uncertainty sets the bar pretty low already, they honestly look like a seven-win team.
Nebraska, like Iowa, has a lot of offensive skill players to replace. Tommy Armstrong, who started all but seven games over the Huskers' last four seasons, graduated and leaves former Tulane quarterback Tanner Lee at the reigns. Lee won't have a ton to work with, either: six of the eight most-targeted pass options graduated, leaving Stanley Morgan, Jr., De'Mornay Pierson-El, and a whole lot of unknowns in the receiving corps.
Armstrong and Terrell Newby were the team's best ballcarriers in 2016, and Newby is gone too. Whichever running back wins the starting job gets to run behind an experienced line. Whether it's an actually good one (it was below-average last year) has yet to be seen.
Also like Iowa, Nebraska has a good defense. However, the Cornhuskers' offensive problems seem greater to me. Unless they can routinely keep opponents below 17 points, I don't expect Nebraska to catch up to their eastern rivals.
I'd be lying if I said I think Minnesota will be a whole lot better than average this season. The Gophers have a great future ahead of them under new coach P.J. Fleck, but in the interim, they may struggle to get their footing, and may look lost against vastly superior competition.
We'll start with the offense. New coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca has a pair of superb junior running backs with which to work in Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks. The two combined for 1,808 yards and 21 touchdowns, and with since-graduated quarterback Mitch Leidner's running ability, the Gophers could afford to pretty much never pass as they approached the goal line. Assuming Ciarrocca runs roughly the same run-first offense he did at Western Michigan, Smith and Brooks will be invaluable.
Of course, Smith and Brooks often succeeded in spite of problems in front of them. While eight different linemen started at least one game, they frequently shuffled positions due to injuries. Nobody started every game; just one started more than eight. Four different players played right guard. Garrison Wright played at every spot except for center. There was no consistency, and as a result, Smith and Brooks had to generate space themselves. There should be some improvement, as half of those starters are back for 2017, and Fleck hired the highly reputable Ed Warinner to coach them, but I still don't trust them.
The quarterback situation basically remains an open competition entering Week 1: sophomore Demry Croft and fifth-year senior Conor Rhoda will both play significantly Thursday night. It's unsettling, but when neither of them have more than 17 pass attempts in their college career, and when the opponent is lowly Buffalo, it's worth a shot for now.
I prefer Croft. He looked better at the spring game than Rhoda (stats are seemingly unavailable – not that they are entirely meaningful), and he hasn't underwhelmed me as recently as Rhoda: my memory of a freshman Croft's struggles at the end of a blowout loss to Northwestern two years ago are easier to dismiss than Rhoda's 8-for-16, 88-yard performance at Maryland last year. Plus, unlike Rhoda, Croft showed he can run a little, picking up 55 non-sack yards on the ground. Neither are particularly known quantities, but I think Croft has the higher upside.
Of course, there's the question of whether the quarterback will have anyone to whom to throw. Drew Wolitarsky was, by far, Leidner's preferred and most effective target, receiving more targets (102) than the next three players combined (101). The surest options are a pair of big senior tight ends, 6'5" Brandon Lingen and 6'10" Nate Wozniak. When Lingen, who caught 33 passes in 2015, got injured last year, Wozniak took over as the starter and caught 13 of the 22 balls thrown to him. Considering that the three best returning wideouts combined for a 48.3 percent catch rate last year – drops were an absolute plague – the two big men should be heavily leaned on.
So what do we have? Tons of uncertainty. Smith and Brooks are the most proven weapons at Ciarrocca's disposal. The line and receivers may not help out an inexperienced quarterback much at all. Short passes and read option were the preferred means of attack in Kalamazoo; they might have to be that in Minneapolis just to make things easier for the key personnel.
The strength of the defense is in the linebacker corps. Cody Poock was Minnesota's second-leading tackler in 2015, but injuries meant other players got time in his stead. Blake Cashman earned a scholarship with his opportunity, making 38.0 tackles, 10.5 for loss, and 7.5 of them sacks. Julian Huff made over 20 tackles as well, and while their impact was small, freshmen Thomas Barber, Kamal Martin, and Jaylen Waters all got their first game action. While a pair of big contributors (Jack Lynn and Nick Rallis) graduated, all of the aforementioned linebackers and leading tackler Jonathan Celestin return.
The line is a far less sure thing. Steven Richardson is an excellent tackle, racking up 19 tackles for loss over the past two seasons, and his partner Andrew Stelter has plenty of experience. After those seniors, it gets iffy. Hank and Scott Ekpe, starters of a combined 22 games last year, are gone, and so is Gaelin Elmore after he transferred. Senior Merrick Jackson and sophomores Winston DeLattiboudere and Tai'yon Devers are the only other true linemen on the roster to have made a tackle in 2016. JUCO tackle Royal Silver serves as reinforcement, but I still don't like how few established players exist up front. Former four-star linebacker Carter Coughlin has been pressed into service as a rush end, which should provide an extra boost. We'll see if that makes the Gopher front four something scary in 2017.
Whereas the unproven options along the line of scrimmage are made up for their numbers, there is a dearth of trustworthy defensive backs. Antonio Winfield, Jr. is the best of the bunch after a solid freshman campaign, but he is surrounded by players with problems. Duke McGee struggles mightily to make a simple tackle below the neck, having been twice ejected for targeting last season. Adekunle Ayinde and Antonio Shenault both looked weak in coverage. The number of other players with playing experience goes down considerably from there.
The Gophers are in transition, and it'll show. There are a lot of questionable spots on the two-deep, and experience can only do so much for a lot of players who didn't impress much last season. As Fleck installs his program and the starting lineup is solidified, the team will improve; it won't result in more than a middling record for another year or so though.
Finding nice things to say about Purdue and Illinois is tough. Neither team had an offense last season, though the Illini have a pair of running backs worth paying paying attention to: Kendrick Foster and Reggie Corbin averaged 5.7 yards per carry. Of course, three different quarterbacks also played, and only the since-graduated Wes Lunt was even passable. Jeff George, Jr., Chayce Crouch, and now former Hokie Dwayne Lawson are the competitors for the starting job, and it's hard to have confidence in any of them.
Of course, U of I had an okay defense – except that eight of the 13 players to make at least 20 tackles last year graduated, including leading tackler Hardy Nickerson and five other defenders to start at least five games. Admittedly that isn't the most frightening way of framing things (arbitrary endpoints and all), especially since a lot of defensive backs return, but at the front, it could be bad. The Illini defense ranked 80th in yards per rush and 124th in rushing touchdowns per game last season; with more inexperienced bodies in the box, it will probably be worse.
Purdue made a great hire after dumping Darrel Hazell, nabbing Western Kentucky's Jeff Brohm. However, that usually doesn't matter much in Year 1. Brohm isn't turning the Boilermakers into a high-flying, fast-paced offensive juggernaut overnight, especially not without last year's four most-targeted wide receivers. The ones filling their spots aren't total rookies, and tight end Cole Herdman is capable, but David Blough threw 21 interceptions and took 28 sacks in 2017. Surely those two figures are at least in part related, and 21 picks is a crazy number for a guy with a 57.1 percent completion rate, but man, does that inspire dread.
Sophomore linebacker Markus Bailey, senior defensive end Gelen Robinson, and senior defensive back Da'Wan Hunte lead a likely improved Purdue defense that should still be bad. A team that allows 6.2 yards per play is probably not immediately fixing itself.
The two teams' schedules are pretty much the same. (Their East opponents only differ in location and whether they'll be slaughtered by Michigan or Ohio State.) Because they're so even, picking a better year for either comes down to arbitrary tiebreakers. Since Purdue plays Illinois at home, give me the Boilermakers to finish sixth.
East
Predicted Standings:
- Ohio State (conference championship game winner)
- Penn State
- Michigan
- Indiana
- Michigan State
- Maryland
- Rutgers
I thought (as I'm sure others did) that Ohio State would take a step back in 2016. Some of their best and most experienced players left, whether with a diploma or with a pro jersey in hand, and even the top, top programs located outside Tuscaloosa usually lose an extra game or two in a year like that.
Look how that turned out.
The Buckeyes found a new ridiculously talented running back, new receivers, new offensive linemen, a new Bosa, and new defenders to make tackles in the backfield. And then they made the Playoff having lost one game (in which they outgained their opponents by 137 yards and lost on a late blocked field goal returned for a touchdown). Their Fiesta Bowl appearance was a disaster, sure, but they deserved to be there, which is something I did not at all expect to say last August.
Look how that turned out.
The Buckeyes found a new ridiculously talented running back, new receivers, new offensive linemen, a new Bosa, and new defenders to make tackles in the backfield. And then they made the Playoff having lost one game (in which they outgained their opponents by 137 yards and lost on a late blocked field goal returned for a touchdown). Their Fiesta Bowl appearance was a disaster, sure, but they deserved to be there, which is something I did not at all expect to say last August.
J.T. Barrett is in his fourth year as the Buckeyes' starter and remains solid, flanked by 1,096-yard rusher Mike Weber and protected by a line that returns four of its five starters. Curtis Samuel was a highly valuable, multi-purpose weapon, and there's not really a player who has proven the ability to fill that role. With Noah Brown and Dontre Wilson also gone, OSU needs their younger receivers to step up, but I'd rather be confident everywhere else on offense and have to worry about former blue-chippers filling in, than have experienced receivers and nothing else. K.J. Hill showed ability last year, anyway.
The Buckeye front seven looks terrifying, especially at the line of scrimmage. Nobody from last year's defensive line is gone, meaning Joey Bosa, Sam Hubbard, and First-Team All-Big Ten defensive end Tyquan Lewis (combined 25.5 tackles for loss and 16.5 sacks) will keep in quarterbacks' faces for another year. Linebackers Jerome Baker and Chris Worley are back as well. While the secondary should suffer from losing its top three players, it's not full of young or bad players. There's not a more convincing team in this conference.
Not enough teams take the "screw it, throw it deep" approach. There are many good strategic reasons for that, but if you have the talent, why not just do it? It makes for wonderfully entertaining football, and it just might work some of the time.
Thankfully, we have Joe Moorhead and the Penn State offense. PSU torched opponents, especially once things fully clicked: they averaged 41 points over their last 10 games, including a massive comeback win over Wisconsin in the conference championship game, and a narrow but thrilling loss to USC in the Rose Bowl.
The conductor of this operation, Trace McSorley, was maybe the nation's best dual-threat quarterback not named Lamar Jackson, accumulating over 4,000 yards (sacks excluded) and 36 touchdowns. Despite losing top target Chris Godwin, McSorley should be fine with DaeShean Hamilton and DeAndre Thompkins playing wideout.
And then there's perhaps the star of that Rose Bowl among players wearing a white, striped helmet: Saquon Barkley. That was Barkley's fifth career game of 194 rushing yards or more, and ninth of 7.5 yards or more per carry. It capped a 1,496-yard, 18-touchdown season, an even more impressive achievement considering the injuries and inconsistent play on the line in front of him. There is a reason Barkley is getting Heisman hype; he's an absolutely electrifying runner.
The defense is not as exceptional, but it's got talented players as well. Jason Cabinda and Manny Bowen lead a deep linebacking corps, and safety Marcus Allen is one of the best defensive backs in the country. Questions exist elsewhere in the secondary and along the line, but they aren't so big that the offense can't compensate for the occasional bad game.
With offensive line health, Penn State may field the best, most exhilarating offense in college football, and the defense doesn't look so bad either. Ohio State looks significantly better, but the Nittany Lions aren't too far behind. If they upset their rivals on October 28, PSU can repeat as Big Ten champions.
If Alabama didn't have the best defense in FBS last year, Michigan did. Nobody allowed a lower completion percentage. They were within a tenth of a yard from topping Colorado in pass yards allowed per play, and from topping Alabama in total yards per game. They trailed only the Tide in points per game. They finished seventh in yards per run. Trying to move the ball against the Wolverines, especially through the air, was near-impossible.
And so much of that elite defense is gone. Jabrill Peppers, Ben Gedeon, Mike McCray, Taco Charlton, Jourdan Lewis, Dymonte Thomas, Delano Hill, Ryan Glasgow, Chris Wormley – all of them, plus a few others: gone. Chase Winovich is the only one of the top 13 tacklers to return for this season. Even if you believe in Jim Harbaugh, defensive coordinator Don Brown, and all the exceptional talent they have recruited to Ann Arbor, the drop-off will undeniably be substantial. Sheer ability and an above-average offense makes them a top-20 team still, but this is a regrouping year.
Thanks to roster turnover, Indiana's offense took a major step back in 2016, but it looks like it will improve a little. Quarterback Richard Lagow needs new targets to fill in for the departed Mitchell Paige and Ricky Jones; however, junior Nick Westbrook led receivers in yards, and he has at least a couple experienced wideouts behind him. If there are any problems, it will be up front: Coy Cronk and Wes Martin are the only two full-time starting offensive linemen who are back, and just two others got any starts. Considering how poorly IU ran the ball last year, it's reasonable to think the Hoosiers won't be able to do more than throw it.
Fortunately, Indiana should keep opposing scores low. Last year's unit allowed just 5.1 yards per play, 24th-best in FBS, and most of that group is intact. Somehow, top linebacker Tegray Scales didn't leave for the NFL after making 109.5 tackles, 23.5 for loss, and 7.0 sacks. He should have an impressive senior year. No linemen shined last season, maybe except for end Nile Sykes, who will miss 2017 with an injury. There are plenty of at least somewhat experienced options though, and they're backed with a fully stocked secondary. Senior Rashard Fant is the star, having recorded 17 pass breakups and three picks last year.
The Hoosiers aren't exceptional in really any way, and the only way they will be is if Tom Allen – despite the limits of his program's location, poor history, division placement, and place on the school pecking order – improves upon the steadiness and relative success Kevin Wilson achieved. Allen's first team in charge and a light cross-division slate should make for a nice, if unspectacular, bridge season.
When you lose as many players as Michigan State did last year, you expect some sort of decline. You just don't think it will hit as hard as it did: a 3-9 disaster in which the only conference win was against Rutgers. For the first time since 2006 (right before Mark Dantonio's first season), the Spartans missed a bowl game, and it was just the second time since 2010 that they did not win 11 games.
(As ugly as it was, MSU probably wasn't quite as bad as their record. Three games were decided by four points or fewer; Sparty lost all three. Regardless: an extra game or two doesn't lighten the shock of last year's downfall that much, and they didn't play that well in plenty of other games.)
This schedule isn't very conducive to the goal of a rebound. While avoiding Wisconsin, Sparty drew the two next-best teams in the West, Northwestern and Iowa, as well as a trip to Minnesota. Getting Michigan and Ohio State on the road likely won't tack on a loss they weren't already going to get, but at least they might have a chance at home.
Also not helpful: more roster turnover. By Bill Connelly's returning production stat, just five teams have to deal with more lineup changes than the Spartans. Four offensive linemen with starting experience are gone, leaving center Brian Allen as one of two upperclassmen, and the only senior, on a very young unit. A sophomore, Brian Lewerke, is the listed starting quarterback after a season of substitute duty in 2016. Lewerke has only thrown 57 passes, and three of the four players to receive more than 29 targets last year graduated. It's hard to put any confidence in this offense.
Eight defenders to start games last year are also gone. Last year's sack leader, Demetrius Cooper, brought down a quarterback 2.5 times. The best returning pass defender, Tyson Smith, broke up four throws but only made 13 tackles. This side isn't great either.
Whatever improvement Michigan State makes, it won't be big.
The Buckeye front seven looks terrifying, especially at the line of scrimmage. Nobody from last year's defensive line is gone, meaning Joey Bosa, Sam Hubbard, and First-Team All-Big Ten defensive end Tyquan Lewis (combined 25.5 tackles for loss and 16.5 sacks) will keep in quarterbacks' faces for another year. Linebackers Jerome Baker and Chris Worley are back as well. While the secondary should suffer from losing its top three players, it's not full of young or bad players. There's not a more convincing team in this conference.
Not enough teams take the "screw it, throw it deep" approach. There are many good strategic reasons for that, but if you have the talent, why not just do it? It makes for wonderfully entertaining football, and it just might work some of the time.
Thankfully, we have Joe Moorhead and the Penn State offense. PSU torched opponents, especially once things fully clicked: they averaged 41 points over their last 10 games, including a massive comeback win over Wisconsin in the conference championship game, and a narrow but thrilling loss to USC in the Rose Bowl.
The conductor of this operation, Trace McSorley, was maybe the nation's best dual-threat quarterback not named Lamar Jackson, accumulating over 4,000 yards (sacks excluded) and 36 touchdowns. Despite losing top target Chris Godwin, McSorley should be fine with DaeShean Hamilton and DeAndre Thompkins playing wideout.
And then there's perhaps the star of that Rose Bowl among players wearing a white, striped helmet: Saquon Barkley. That was Barkley's fifth career game of 194 rushing yards or more, and ninth of 7.5 yards or more per carry. It capped a 1,496-yard, 18-touchdown season, an even more impressive achievement considering the injuries and inconsistent play on the line in front of him. There is a reason Barkley is getting Heisman hype; he's an absolutely electrifying runner.
The defense is not as exceptional, but it's got talented players as well. Jason Cabinda and Manny Bowen lead a deep linebacking corps, and safety Marcus Allen is one of the best defensive backs in the country. Questions exist elsewhere in the secondary and along the line, but they aren't so big that the offense can't compensate for the occasional bad game.
With offensive line health, Penn State may field the best, most exhilarating offense in college football, and the defense doesn't look so bad either. Ohio State looks significantly better, but the Nittany Lions aren't too far behind. If they upset their rivals on October 28, PSU can repeat as Big Ten champions.
If Alabama didn't have the best defense in FBS last year, Michigan did. Nobody allowed a lower completion percentage. They were within a tenth of a yard from topping Colorado in pass yards allowed per play, and from topping Alabama in total yards per game. They trailed only the Tide in points per game. They finished seventh in yards per run. Trying to move the ball against the Wolverines, especially through the air, was near-impossible.
And so much of that elite defense is gone. Jabrill Peppers, Ben Gedeon, Mike McCray, Taco Charlton, Jourdan Lewis, Dymonte Thomas, Delano Hill, Ryan Glasgow, Chris Wormley – all of them, plus a few others: gone. Chase Winovich is the only one of the top 13 tacklers to return for this season. Even if you believe in Jim Harbaugh, defensive coordinator Don Brown, and all the exceptional talent they have recruited to Ann Arbor, the drop-off will undeniably be substantial. Sheer ability and an above-average offense makes them a top-20 team still, but this is a regrouping year.
Thanks to roster turnover, Indiana's offense took a major step back in 2016, but it looks like it will improve a little. Quarterback Richard Lagow needs new targets to fill in for the departed Mitchell Paige and Ricky Jones; however, junior Nick Westbrook led receivers in yards, and he has at least a couple experienced wideouts behind him. If there are any problems, it will be up front: Coy Cronk and Wes Martin are the only two full-time starting offensive linemen who are back, and just two others got any starts. Considering how poorly IU ran the ball last year, it's reasonable to think the Hoosiers won't be able to do more than throw it.
Fortunately, Indiana should keep opposing scores low. Last year's unit allowed just 5.1 yards per play, 24th-best in FBS, and most of that group is intact. Somehow, top linebacker Tegray Scales didn't leave for the NFL after making 109.5 tackles, 23.5 for loss, and 7.0 sacks. He should have an impressive senior year. No linemen shined last season, maybe except for end Nile Sykes, who will miss 2017 with an injury. There are plenty of at least somewhat experienced options though, and they're backed with a fully stocked secondary. Senior Rashard Fant is the star, having recorded 17 pass breakups and three picks last year.
The Hoosiers aren't exceptional in really any way, and the only way they will be is if Tom Allen – despite the limits of his program's location, poor history, division placement, and place on the school pecking order – improves upon the steadiness and relative success Kevin Wilson achieved. Allen's first team in charge and a light cross-division slate should make for a nice, if unspectacular, bridge season.
When you lose as many players as Michigan State did last year, you expect some sort of decline. You just don't think it will hit as hard as it did: a 3-9 disaster in which the only conference win was against Rutgers. For the first time since 2006 (right before Mark Dantonio's first season), the Spartans missed a bowl game, and it was just the second time since 2010 that they did not win 11 games.
(As ugly as it was, MSU probably wasn't quite as bad as their record. Three games were decided by four points or fewer; Sparty lost all three. Regardless: an extra game or two doesn't lighten the shock of last year's downfall that much, and they didn't play that well in plenty of other games.)
This schedule isn't very conducive to the goal of a rebound. While avoiding Wisconsin, Sparty drew the two next-best teams in the West, Northwestern and Iowa, as well as a trip to Minnesota. Getting Michigan and Ohio State on the road likely won't tack on a loss they weren't already going to get, but at least they might have a chance at home.
Also not helpful: more roster turnover. By Bill Connelly's returning production stat, just five teams have to deal with more lineup changes than the Spartans. Four offensive linemen with starting experience are gone, leaving center Brian Allen as one of two upperclassmen, and the only senior, on a very young unit. A sophomore, Brian Lewerke, is the listed starting quarterback after a season of substitute duty in 2016. Lewerke has only thrown 57 passes, and three of the four players to receive more than 29 targets last year graduated. It's hard to put any confidence in this offense.
Eight defenders to start games last year are also gone. Last year's sack leader, Demetrius Cooper, brought down a quarterback 2.5 times. The best returning pass defender, Tyson Smith, broke up four throws but only made 13 tackles. This side isn't great either.
Whatever improvement Michigan State makes, it won't be big.
Meanwhile, as D.J. Durkin continues to succeed on the recruiting trail, Maryland is on the way up. If nothing else, they should be able to run the ball whenever they want. Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison averaged 8.3 yards per carry between them last year, and the right half of the line has enough experience to trust to a degree. Johnson and Harrison's true talent levels are almost certainly not that good though, and the passing game is weakened by discontinuity. A new quarterback and a handful of new receivers need to be broken in.
The defense could be quite good. A couple of new bodies are needed up front, and some depth defensive backs need replacing, but otherwise, pretty much everyone returns. End Jesse Aniebonam, a senior who made 9.0 sacks last year, is the guy to watch closest, though linebackers Jermaine Carter, Jr. and Shane Cockerille are noteworthy as well.
Unlike Michigan State, Maryland does have to face Wisconsin on the road, and Northwestern will be tough too. Making bowl eligibility might be a struggle.
Rutgers is very slowly approaching respectability. Right now though, they're still probably the worst team in the Power Five, lacking any offensive punch and still getting annihilated by opposing running backs. The Scarlet Knights' lone strong suit, an okay secondary, returns most of its players, and many other defenders come back as well. The most entertaining thing about a game in Piscataway will remain seeing how many points Ohio State can score, but maybe it'll stop before 58 this time.
* * *
Up next: we wrap up the preseason with the Ski-U-Blog Top 25, bowl predictions, and other loose ends. (Even though the season has technically started already.)
A heaping amount of credit for statistical information goes to Bill Connelly, SB Nation's stats emperor and creator of the S&P+ analytics system. Sports-Reference's data also came in handy.
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