Oklahoma looks like they won't have any problems at the top, but a jumbled and highly interesting second class has a few teams that could face them in Arlington.
Predicted Standings:
- Oklahoma (conference championship game winner)
- Kansas State
- Oklahoma State
- Texas
- TCU
- Baylor
- West Virginia
- Texas Tech
- Iowa State
- Kansas
The neat thing about writing about the Big 12, or any round-robin league, is that it's basically a power ranking of all 10 teams. There's some slight maneuvering to be done about who plays whom where, but when everyone plays everyone, it's easy.
The terrible thing about writing about the Big 12 is reminding yourself about the mind-blowing incompetence that's guided everything the conference has done for the past several years. Everyone in charge is either stupid or too worried about comparing appendages to worry about the future of the league. The realignment fiascos aren't even worth discussing anymore because they have been talked about ad nauseum, and they just give me a headache at this point.
But the addition of a championship game to a round-robin schedule is too ridiculous to ignore. The only reason this extra game exists (other than the obvious monetary incentive) is the fact that the Big 12 has missed two-thirds of Playoffs which have existed so far, and they are worried about the lack of a "13th data point." It's worth remembering that the Committee just showed it's willing to let a team into the Playoff if they are good enough and in the right situation, by putting Ohio State ahead of Penn State. So fewer than three weeks before the Playoff disproved the entire premise of a championship game's institution. Furthermore, nowhere in the Committee's protocol does it at all mention playing 13 games or participation in a conference championship game as a selection criterion. This is a gimmicky, pointless overreaction to missing two of the first three (they've done just three!) Playoffs that will probably only keep a top candidate for selection out of the tournament if they lose the championship game.
So anyway: when Oklahoma made the Playoff two years ago, they did so with a great defense. In the conference with the most supercharged offenses in FBS, the Sooners held opponents to 4.8 yards per play, the 14th-best mark in the country. If per-game numbers are more your thing (and if they are, I would advise you to reconsider), they gave up 364.5 yards and 22.0 points per game, 39th and 29th in FBS. There's no question about it: OU had a really good defense in 2015.
So why did they have what was, at best, a middling defense in 2016? To begin with, they had to replace five starters over the offseason, which put them in enough of a hole. And then the injuries hit. Two Week 1 starting defensive linemen, Charles Walker and Matt Dimon, didn't make it through the TCU game on October 1 before their college careers ended. Two starting linebackers missed seven games; another, Tay Evans, had to retire after three games due to concussions. Starting safety Dakota Austin added another three games missed. Twenty-players started on defense going into the Sugar Bowl, including seven first-year Sooners (per the game notes). It's hard to stop anybody when you have so many holes to fill on such a frequent basis.
Back in the present, I don't entirely trust a linebacker group projected to start a redshirt freshman (Jon-Michael Terry) and a true sophomore (Caleb Kelly), even if they are former blue-chip recruits and if the latter got significant playing time last season. Expected starting free safety Khalil Haughton, who has yet to record a pass breakup in his career, is another concern. However, I'm usually pretty optimistic about big prospects getting better after getting some reps the year prior, and there's not a ton of reason for my stance to change for OU. This year's defense obviously won't match the 2015 edition, but it should improve significantly.
Alongside one of the country's best offenses (a level of quality it should maintain, even despite losing its best three playmakers), that should be enough for the Sooners to make a run at the Playoff. It would be hard for any first-year head coach to mess this up.
The next four teams could really come in any order. A surprise road win here, an injury or two there, and Oklahoma is facing any one of them in Arlington. They're that close in quality to me.
Kansas State could really explode offensively in 2017. The Wildcats were already solid in that regard last year; quarterback Jesse Ertz led an attack that ranked 19th in ESPN's efficiency statistic and 43rd in S&P+.
Ertz, who ran for more touchdowns than he threw, is joined in the backfield by a pair of backs who shined in limited time last year, junior Justin Silmon and sophomore Alex Barnes. Both ran for more than 400 yards, with Silmon playing the high-upside role to Barnes' efficiency. Dalvin Warmack and fullback Winston Dimel fill other supporting parts; four starting linemen also return to lead the way. Should the passing game be necessary, juniors Byron Pringle and Dominique Heath provide Ertz options. Those are a lot of names that might not mean anything to you, so here's the bottom line: there's a good chance K-State absolutely torches opponents on the ground and still has a capable passing game to compliment the run.
The defense is a somewhat worse scene, featuring neither of 2016's starting linebackers, Elijah Lee and Charmeachealle Moore, or last year's top pass rusher, Jordan Willis. The secondary loses a couple of contributors as well, but starting corner D.J. Reed, who led the team in pass breakups and finished second in tackles to Lee, is a huge player to get back. End Reggie Walker had an impressive freshman season and should also help the Wildcats survive against some of the biggest offenses in the country. I don't know whether survival is a ceiling or a floor for this group, but there's a good chance it's the latter.
If Bill Snyder gets just an average year out of his defense, the Wildcats could take advantage of some generous scheduling (TCU and Oklahoma both come to Manhattan) and once again terrify the expected conference contenders.
Oklahoma State is getting a lot of buzz this preseason, and that's because the Cowboys' offense gave people 502 reasons to believe in them last year, or a little over 38 every week. Quarterback Mason Rudolph was stellar, putting up 4,091 yards and 28 touchdowns against four interceptions. In 2017, Rudolph and seven other offensive starters return, including three of his four favorite targets. If a couple of those receivers, or running back Justice Hill, go down injured, there may be trouble, but assuming fairly normal health, Oklahoma State should level opposing defenses.
The one thing holding back the Cowboys is their own defense. It was passable last year, but the top of the depth chart was pretty senior-heavy. Defensive backs Ramon Richards and Tre Flowers are the only standouts on a group that ranked 83rd in yards per play (one spot ahead of Oklahoma) last season. It's possible an average defense could make OSU a top 10 team, but I don't see much evidence they'll have one.
There are many negative things you can say about Charlie Strong's tenure at Texas; one of them is not that he didn't recruit well. Strong's two full classes ranked 10th and seventh, and the two transition classes on either end ranked 17th and 26th in the country. While the Longhorns struggled last season just by being too young to be good, Strong constructed what looks like a great team for 2017 and 2018.
On offense, there's a true dual-threat sophomore quarterback; an offensive line with a combined 65 career starts, including a consensus All-American at left tackle, a Freshman All-American at center, and a former four-star prospect at left guard; six receivers who caught at least 20 passes last year; and a selection of former blue-chippers at running back. I admit I've propped up the running back situation a bit, as none of their options are D'Onta Foreman, but otherwise, I feel like his group is capable of great things.
On defense, ten starters return, including a pack of talented linebackers: Malik Jefferson was not as fantastic as he was expected to be last year, but he still finished in the top three of the team in tackles and second in sacks; Breckyn Hager came out of nowhere to lead the Longhorns in sacks and tackles for loss; and Anthony Wheeler had a strong season as well. And one of them (multiple outlets think Hager) is expected to be a backup to senior Naashon Hughes, who had a down 2016 but was one of the defense's best players the season prior. And then there's Edwin Freeman, who started five games and finished seventh (or sixth, depending on your source – defensive statistics can be an imprecise mess) in tackles.
Throw in defensive tackle Poona Ford and some other serviceable linemen, and you've got a potentially stout front six. (Not "front seven;" new coordinator Todd Orlando runs a 3-3-5.) Kris Boyd leads a secondary that was full of youth in 2016.
The thing is, this is all a matter of one big "if." If all these young, once highly rated players truly improve through experience, Texas will be even better than I think they are. As I've said, I think it's usually smart to bet on that happening. When you bring in a likely superior coaching staff too, I think that bet is really smart. Some people are undoubtedly banking on Texas because it's easy to guess a blue-blood program will reassert itself under a new head coach, but there are plenty of legitimate reasons to believe Texas is good again.
It was fun while it lasted.
Meanwhile in Fort Worth, Gary Patterson is fielding practically the same Horned Frogs team he did last year. Notable offensive departures include one starting lineman, the third-string running back, and two receivers who, if combined into a single person, would have been the seventh-most favored passing target. Just four defensive players with 20 tackles or more graduated, and while those four are not insignificant – linemen Aaron Curry and Josh Carraway had 20 tackles for loss and 13.5 sacks between them, and safety Denzel Johnson had 11 TFLs and six pass breakups on his own – the point remains: both sides of the ball are mostly intact. Bill Connelly's returning production stat has TCU bringing back more than anybody in the Power Five.
So, again, as a believer in year-to-year improvement, I believe this will translate to a better TCU in 2017. However, their ceiling seems limited by its age (many significant players are now seniors) and recruiting pedigree (the 2013-15 classes averaged 39th in the country and 6th in the conference), the latter of which reflected itself in how simply okay the Frogs were last season: they gained a 44th-ranked yards per play and allowed a 52nd-ranked 5.5 yards per play. A conference title game berth is possible.
How Matt Rhule's jump to the Power Five happened at Baylor still perplexes me. At Temple, he assembled one of the country's best defenses and a champion in the American – and he left for Waco? Baylor was a disaster zone for months by the time he took the job. (It still kind of is one.) And setting aside the scandal, Baylor isn't even that big a job. Sure, there are donors, and it's still a major-conference program in Central Texas, but when other AAC coaches have recently left for Texas, Oregon, and Virginia Tech, you have to think Rhule could have done better. It didn't even make sense geographically either: Rhule is a New Yorker who has spent one year of his coaching career west of Pennsylvania. He undoubtedly has connections and recruiting experience on the East Coast more than anywhere else. Why go all the way to Texas, where an untrustworthy "Yankee" is basically anyone from north of Missouri or east of Kentucky?
However, among the other openings last fall, it's not like an East Coast man like Rhule had any perfect options. If he waited another year in Philly, his stock might have fallen, keeping him out of a bigger job or one closer to home. So now he's the head coach at Baylor. We'll see about the long-term fit and whether he can steer through the mess surrounding the school, but for now, Rhule inherits a talented roster.
Last year, the Bears ranked a respectable 42nd in yards per play, both gained and allowed. If the left side of the O-line and the yet-to-be-determined quarterback situation work themselves out somewhat well, Baylor has the skill players to compete. Chris Platt is the top wide receiver, complimented by Blake Lynch and Tony Nicholson, the latter of whom was a fairly adept kick returner in 2016. Terence Williams (oddly listed second on the pre-fall depth chart) comes out of the backfield fresh off a 1,048-yard season and is the Bears' best weapon.
Defensively, the Bears have plenty of experience. Five seniors and two juniors are are either projected to start or are in a competition for a starting spot, including defensive end K.J. Smith, who tied for the team lead with 12 tackles for loss last season, as well as a team-best seven sacks. Travon Blanchard is suspended indefinitely, but Taion Sells, Davion Hall, and Chance Waz should hold down the safety position. The three possible corners, even without a lot of tackles, all had their share of pass breakups last year. There are a couple of iffy spots along the line, but nothing team-killing.
Perhaps transition difficulties will hamper Baylor in 2017, but I doubt any such problems will be more than a minor hurdle. Considering the roster's overall performance last year and generally good (though leaner than it once was) recruiting pedigree, it's fair to say that an average season is a reasonable minimum expectation.
The Coaches Poll and Sports Illustrated, two early indications of national perception, have West Virginia ranked 20th and 21st in FBS. If that's the Mountaineers' expectation, then they may be disappointed, as a few computer rankings have them a decent bit below that. The Massey Composite has WVU ranked 37th. FPI: 48th. S&P+: 69th. I have many close, personal friends who are computers, so I'm inclined to believe them more than anything that breathes and has blood running through its veins.
But why do the computers not like the Mountaineers that much? In a word (which has been said in a number of other ways in favor or in criticism of teams in this preview): continuity. Transfer Will Grier may be able to make up for Skyler Howard's departure, but 103 games' worth of career offensive line starts left behind Howard too. Also gone are Daikiel Shorts and Shelton Gibson, who were responsible for 42.6 percent of the team's completions. That's a lot to replace on what was a strong offense. Knowing Dana Holgorsen, WVU should still be pretty capable of scoring, but it seems unlikely they will match the heights of what his past teams did.
The defense has a similar problem – though for a lesser unit, that could easily mean it's a substantially bigger problem. After Kyzir White, there aren't nearly enough experienced defensive backs who can replace safeties Jarrod Harper and Jeremy Tyler, and corners Rasul Douglas, Maurice Fleming, and Antonio Crawford. Those five totaled 32 pass breakups, 11 interceptions, and 241 tackles, all of which will likely be sorely missed in the pass-happy Big 12. West Virginia could get dragged into some shootouts it can't win.
Kliff Kingsbury is short on time. Since his takeover at Texas Tech in 2013, the Red Raiders have descended from an offense-first team into the country's most notorious offense-only team, with little sign of improvement. If he wants to survive in Lubbock beyond November, that has to change.
There's no need to go deep into the offense; it'll be fine. Nic Shimonek, like Taylor Potts following Graham Harrell in 2009, walks in Patrick Mahomes's massive shadow, but I expect he will do well enough. This is Texas Tech.
To illustrate how deep a hole Tech is on the other end, you really only need one number: 7.1. That is the average number of yards the Tech defense allowed every play. Only Arizona State and Rice were worse, and the nearest Big 12 team was 89th-ranked Iowa State, at 6.0 yards per play. But to really emphasize the point, below are the Red Raiders' defensive rankings by a small handful of advanced statistics systems.
S&P+: 125
FEI: 123
Massey: 119
ESPN Team Efficiency: 120
In the cases of FEI and Massey, only one Power Five team did worse (Oregon and Purdue, respectively). In the other two, nobody did. It is not only possible, but easy to argue that nobody in the Power Five fielded a worse defense. The only reason I have to call this rock bottom is because, while Tech hasn't been appreciably better in two years, this time, there really is nowhere to go but up. Let's try to find a way things do improve.
First of all, as it always has had to be said: since Mike Leach's firing, there have been enough defensive coordinators (six) to form an Iron Maiden cover band. David Gibbs is the first to have made it to a third season. I would think having roughly the same defensive system in place for more than a few months or a year would lead to better performance within that system. Of course, I said something similar last year, when Gibbs became the second DC to make it to a second August. So either I was overestimating how quickly the term "continuity" can be used a year ago, or this argument just doesn't apply to Tech, Gibbs, or maybe anyone at all.
In more tangible reasons why Tech may be better: you easily buy individual players being solid contributors. Jordyn Brooks, 2016's leading tackler, is joined at linebacker by Dakota Allen, 2015's third-leading tackler who spent last year at a junior college. Free safety Jah'Shawn Johnson comes off a season where he finished second on the team in tackles, broke up six passes, intercepted two, and forced three fumbles. Defensive backs D.J. Polite-Bray and Douglas Coleman broke up 11 passes between them. And a handful of JUCO guys (two of whom, corner Octavious Morgan and strong safety Vaughnte Dorsey, are listed as starters in the post-spring depth chart) could add an extra boost. In fact, you could say that the starters in the second and third levels of the defense could be quite adequate. A true optimist could conceivably predict they play better – even good.
But guessing how JUCO players perform is tricky. And injuries happen; when they do, or when Tech plays one of the many up-tempo offenses on their schedule, backups are going to have to get significant snaps. That will open up possibilities for the opposition. Worse, three of the four projected starting linemen are new. Between them all (including the one who started, the rush end Kolin Hill), they made just two sacks last season. For years, opponents have torn the Red Raiders to shreds in the running game. With no pressure along the line, that's not changing, and quarterbacks will have all the time they could ever want to make decisions.
If the linemen turn out to be much, much better than expected once they hit the field, the Tech defense could dig itself out of the triple digits in rank. That won't take the team to the conference championship game, but it will take Tech to a respectable bowl. Most likely though, whatever improvements occur won't be that great, and perhaps could mean bowl eligibility with a 2-1 record in non-conference play. I feel like a six-win season is almost as likely to get Kingsbury fired as it is to save him. We'll see how this goes.
Iowa State and Kansas are both young teams with their respective areas where they are competent, but for these two programs, I'm forever in "I'll believe it when I see it" mode. But if either of them were to make a run, I would put my money on it being the Cyclones.
Iowa State gained 5.9 yards per play in 2016, which put them 61st in the country, thanks to a potent aerial attack. Joel Lanning played a capable quarterback but was overtaken by now-junior Jacob Park, who basically matched Lanning's completion percentage but threw for more yards per attempt and more touchdowns, and was sacked less. Park begins the year as the starter; Lanning, strangely enough, is listed as a starting linebacker. (Yes, really.) At his disposal is a handful of proven receivers, including sophomore Deshaunte Jones and 1,029-yard senior Allen Lazard. Between David Montgomery and Mike Warren, the Cyclones have a pair of running backs who have played really well before, though it should be said that Warren did so in 2015. The line is really the only question here. Expect Iowa State to put up a lot of points.
And while the defense isn't as impressive as the team's other unit, not many important players from last year have left, and in fact a decent number of them were sophomores. It's well within the realm of possibility that this turns into a passable defense. That's not high praise, but it could very well be enough to take Iowa State from the basement to a bowl.
* * *
Up next: the Pac-12.
A heaping amount of credit for statistical information goes to Bill Connelly, SB Nation's stats emperor and creator of the S&P+ analytics system. Sports-Reference's data also came in handy.
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