The favorites are clear in the Pac-12: Washington looks to defend their division title in a potentially deep North, while USC could dominate the South.
North
Predicted Standings:
- Washington
- Stanford
- Washington State
- Oregon
- Oregon State
- Cal
Washington had a very neat 2016: the world expected the Huskies to break out, and they not only broke out; they rolled. (Up until they faced USC, and then a little over a month later, were themselves rolled.) They averaged a 20-point victory per game, embarrassing rivals and asserting themselves in routs of quality opponents. The Huskies were a complete, two-way team.
Somehow, Washington dominated teams last year with just two seniors starting games offensively. The only other departure from the top of the depth chart is receiver John Ross, who took his absurd speed and agility to the NFL. And that may not even hurt that much; Dante Pettis posted a better catch rate, gained more yards per catch, and scored just two fewer touchdowns than Ross with almost half as many targets. Opposing defenses will have an easier time picking whom to double cover, sure, but with competent receivers behind Pettis, a quarterback like Jake Browning, and a highly capable run game, that doesn't mean they'll be able to stop this offense. Just slowing it down might be a dream.
Of course, it was perhaps harder to move the ball against Washington than it was to keep them from scoring. Just five teams allowed fewer yards per play, and three were the other Playoff teams. (The other two, for those curious: Michigan and Temple.) However, turnover is a bigger problem here than for the offense. Six players who started games left either through graduation or the NFL Draft, punching holes in what was especially one of the nation's premier pass defenses. Budda Baker, Sidney Jones, and Kevin King combined for 118 tackles, 25 pass breakups, and seven interceptions, all of which isn't easy to replace. Baker's successor at safety, Taylor Rapp, did quite well as a freshman last year, so there's not too much need to worry there. The expected starters at corner are a redshirt freshman and a junior with 12 career tackles and no starting experience, which is quite disconcerting.
Questions at cornerback won't destroy an otherwise great team, but if they're answered poorly, it could mean the difference between a division title and a conference title, or the Playoff and a regular bowl game. Still: you can expect 11 wins out of the Huskies this year.
Questions at cornerback won't destroy an otherwise great team, but if they're answered poorly, it could mean the difference between a division title and a conference title, or the Playoff and a regular bowl game. Still: you can expect 11 wins out of the Huskies this year.
I thought it was pretty clear watching Stanford last year that they didn't have much of an offensive strategy beyond "Let's see what Christian McCaffrey can do this play." The numbers bear out that impression, too: McCaffrey had 290 touches before you even include his special teams play, meaning that about a third of the Cardinal's 892 runs, sacks, and completed passes featured him.
McCaffrey is a professional now, so David Shaw will have to find another way to attack defenses. Keller Chryst took over as quarterback late in the season and played well as both a passer and a runner, and a previously iffy line should improve with experience (even if who starts is somewhat messy), giving him time and space to do either job. Bryce Love ran for almost 800 yards as McCaffrey's backup last year, which suggests the Cardinal still has at least one way to move the ball. I don't love any of the receiving options though, so that might be their only reliable way.
The Stanford defense has no such problems, as most of the starters from last year's solid unit return. Linebacker Joey Alfieri and tackle Harrison Phillips (combined 11.5 sacks) should ensure that the pass rush doesn't suffer too much from the loss of Solomon Thomas, and a collection of good defensive backs will prevent the passing game to be too much of a threat. Stanford games will have low scores on either side, and I'm guessing the Cardinal come out on the winning end of most of them.
Even with River Cracraft and Gabe Marks moving on, the Washington State offense should keep on exactly as it ever has: racking up as many yards as they wish, with little regard for the run game and a total focus on spreading out opposing defenders for the seventh or eighth receiver on the depth chart to scamper into the spaces between them for a decent gain.
The top of the defense is mostly intact, with safety Shalom Luani being the biggest departure. Three depth defensive backs graduated as well, which has caused some legitimate concern. With up-tempo or pass-happy teams like Oregon, Cal, and USC on the schedule, that could be problematic. With a mostly capable set of players around that secondary though, I would call the defense adequate overall. And that's really all that's needed to have a decent season with Wazzu's offense.
All is the way it should be on the Palouse.
Oregon is in a similar spot to Texas, having moved on from their own disappointing head coach to a young, exciting one from the American. Said coach walks into a pretty good situation, with former blue-chippers lining the two-deep and all the money a guy could ever want poured into his program. A freshman quarterback led a pretty effective offense the year before his arrival, but the defense was too young and ineffective. That seems like a team on the rise, right?
For the team in Austin, I definitely agree. And for the one in Eugene, I do too – but not with the expectation that "on the rise" means "good" quite yet. The key difference to me is that while Texas had problems on defense, they at least were average. Oregon fielded one of the worst defenses in the country, surrendering 6.4 yards per play (110th in FBS), 28.1 first downs per game (128th – a.k.a. last), and 41.4 points per game (126th). Say you give them a bit of benefit of the doubt for playing in a conference and a division with so many good offenses. Texas did that too, and their numbers weren't nearly as bad as Oregon's.
So yes, Oregon made a good hire, and yes, they will be better in 2017, especially on defense, but I'm expecting a merely decent season out of the Ducks for now. Give it another year though, and they could be quite scary.
Oregon State is coming along, but for now, they'll be happy with bowl eligibility. A big reason for this is that the Beavers have a serious problem throwing the ball. They finished 122nd in yards per pass attempt and 103rd in completion percentage, which is, needless to say, dreadful.
All but one receiver who got targets last season is back for this one, but that probably isn't enough. Three quarterbacks took snaps last year, and another one just transferred in. Gary Andersen didn't lean on the run game that much when it was already good last year (they averaged 36.7 rush attempts against 54.7 passes per game), so OSU very much needs to figure out the passing game if they want to have any success on offense.
After likely throttling FCS Weber State, it's hard finding a definite win on Cal's schedule. The Golden Bears open at North Carolina, play Ole Miss in Week 3, and then face four straight teams that should take full advantage of their defensive inefficiencies before Arizona comes to town. That game, and the one against Oregon State, could be all the wins they get in conference play. Losing their starting quarterback and running back, and with just two first-team linemen who started most of last season's games, means Cal won't have as easy a time keeping up with opponents who score a lot. This could be an ugly, ugly first year for Justin Wilcox.
South
Predicted Standings:
- USC (conference championship game winner)
- Colorado
- Utah
- UCLA
- Arizona State
- Arizona
It's hard to bet against USC because it's hard to bet against any team that looked as brilliant as they did in their final nine games. Over that span, the Trojans averaged a 39.9-22 victory, winning all but two games by double digits and just narrowly missing the Pac-12 Championship Game.
USC is in great shape to play just as well, if not better, in 2017. The defense was merely good rather than great like its opposite unit, but with few departures, that could very easily change. The Trojans basically ran a 4-2-5, with the outside linebackers working as defensive ends in two-point stances; the two starters, Porter Gustin and Uchenna Nwosu, combined for 8.5 sacks and come back. However, a second tackle is needed to pair with Rasheem Green. Last year's nose, Stevie Tu'ikolovatu, started all but one game, and none of the potential replacements reached even half of his 41 tackles. Overall though, I feel positive.
Despite the losses of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Darreus Rogers, the Trojans should still throw the ball effectively with Sam Darnold under center for a full season. Deontay Burnett practically matched Rogers's numbers in a similar number of targets last year, and he could emerge as one of the top receivers in the country. Other players, including a pair of tight ends, received significant playing time as well, and running back Ronald Jones II was used frequently as an option out of the backfield. Speaking of Jones: he ran for 1,082 yards (6.1 per carry) last season with 12 touchdowns and just one fumble. If the line comes together (just two of last year's full-time starters return) – which is often a fair assumption for a team that recruits this well, but you never know – everything should be just fine offensively.
It's possible that USC gets derailed by Stanford, Texas, or Washington (the likely North champs), but I like them against all three of those opponents. If they somehow don't make the Playoff, it will be a great disappointment.
To repeat as South champions, Colorado needs their young players to fill the gaps on what was one of the country's best defenses last season. The leading tackler (Kenneth Olugbode), pass rushers (Jimmie Gilbert and Jordan Carrell), and cover guys (Chidobe Owuzie, Tedric Thompson, and Akhello Witherspoon) all graduated. The odds that that dominant act can be followed look long.
Outside of Sefo Liufau though, the Buffaloes get back most of their offensive skill players. An experienced line should protect new quarterback Steven Montez, who put up impressive numbers (especially on the ground) as a freshman backup. While the defense falls to probably average, I think the offense can ease the descent and keep Colorado in the upper half of the conference.
Since 2003, Utah has gone 8-5 or better in all but three seasons, and yet they always seem to creep up on everyone, scare (or beat) a bigger school, and turn in another solid year.
If the Utes want to continue that tradition though, they have to make up for some big losses on both sides of the ball. Joe Williams, one of the nation's best running backs, is gone. Four of the five offensive linemen to start five or more games are as well. Hunter Dimick, the Second-Team All-American defensive end, is one of three departed defensive linemen. Take away four starting defensive backs, the top receiver, and the starting tight end, and you have a ton to replace. I trust Kyle Whittingham to field a competitive team, but I don't trust him to do so with so little experience on the roster.
I'm not one for absolute, overconfident declarations, but I'll submit this one: Jim Mora will not be the head coach at UCLA by the end of the season. Mora desperately needs a bounceback year after an underwhelming 2015 and a disastrous 2016, but this isn't the kind of schedule that offers one. Three of the four cross-division opponents (Stanford, Oregon, Washington, and Cal) could wipe the floor with the Bruins. Texas A&M to begin the season is obviously a tough game too, and a trip to Memphis in Week 3 is no easy task either. Four games where I'd confidently call them a favorite is not enough for me to believe even 6-6 is a guarantee.
But if I were to find any reason for hope, it would be that the offense, the team's big weakness last season, should improve significantly. Josh Rosen probably won't miss the back half the year again. While the line was poor at generating running lanes, that should improve with all but one of the starters back – with the highly necessary caveat that the one lineman to graduate was all-conference tackle Conor McDermott. And with five running backs getting carries last year, perhaps the additional experience would give just one of them the extra boost to become a reliable starter.
But I don't think the offense will be good enough to take UCLA anywhere, especially when the defense has to replace players like linebacker Jayon Brown and pass rusher Takk McKinley. I expect mediocrity, which is how Mora's seat got hot in the first place.
The Arizona schools were truly horrendous in 2016. Each went on losing streaks of six games or more (in the Wildcats' case, it was eight), proving that in order to survive with a poor defense, you need the offense to back it up.
Fortunately for them, they get to use youth as a (partial) excuse, giving plenty of snaps to freshmen and sophomores. Coming into 2017, Arizona State looks like the better team, with plenty of receiving options and a little more experience across the board. Arizona has the slightly better cross-division schedule though, which might be enough to push their hated rivals into last place.
USC is in great shape to play just as well, if not better, in 2017. The defense was merely good rather than great like its opposite unit, but with few departures, that could very easily change. The Trojans basically ran a 4-2-5, with the outside linebackers working as defensive ends in two-point stances; the two starters, Porter Gustin and Uchenna Nwosu, combined for 8.5 sacks and come back. However, a second tackle is needed to pair with Rasheem Green. Last year's nose, Stevie Tu'ikolovatu, started all but one game, and none of the potential replacements reached even half of his 41 tackles. Overall though, I feel positive.
Despite the losses of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Darreus Rogers, the Trojans should still throw the ball effectively with Sam Darnold under center for a full season. Deontay Burnett practically matched Rogers's numbers in a similar number of targets last year, and he could emerge as one of the top receivers in the country. Other players, including a pair of tight ends, received significant playing time as well, and running back Ronald Jones II was used frequently as an option out of the backfield. Speaking of Jones: he ran for 1,082 yards (6.1 per carry) last season with 12 touchdowns and just one fumble. If the line comes together (just two of last year's full-time starters return) – which is often a fair assumption for a team that recruits this well, but you never know – everything should be just fine offensively.
It's possible that USC gets derailed by Stanford, Texas, or Washington (the likely North champs), but I like them against all three of those opponents. If they somehow don't make the Playoff, it will be a great disappointment.
To repeat as South champions, Colorado needs their young players to fill the gaps on what was one of the country's best defenses last season. The leading tackler (Kenneth Olugbode), pass rushers (Jimmie Gilbert and Jordan Carrell), and cover guys (Chidobe Owuzie, Tedric Thompson, and Akhello Witherspoon) all graduated. The odds that that dominant act can be followed look long.
Outside of Sefo Liufau though, the Buffaloes get back most of their offensive skill players. An experienced line should protect new quarterback Steven Montez, who put up impressive numbers (especially on the ground) as a freshman backup. While the defense falls to probably average, I think the offense can ease the descent and keep Colorado in the upper half of the conference.
Since 2003, Utah has gone 8-5 or better in all but three seasons, and yet they always seem to creep up on everyone, scare (or beat) a bigger school, and turn in another solid year.
If the Utes want to continue that tradition though, they have to make up for some big losses on both sides of the ball. Joe Williams, one of the nation's best running backs, is gone. Four of the five offensive linemen to start five or more games are as well. Hunter Dimick, the Second-Team All-American defensive end, is one of three departed defensive linemen. Take away four starting defensive backs, the top receiver, and the starting tight end, and you have a ton to replace. I trust Kyle Whittingham to field a competitive team, but I don't trust him to do so with so little experience on the roster.
I'm not one for absolute, overconfident declarations, but I'll submit this one: Jim Mora will not be the head coach at UCLA by the end of the season. Mora desperately needs a bounceback year after an underwhelming 2015 and a disastrous 2016, but this isn't the kind of schedule that offers one. Three of the four cross-division opponents (Stanford, Oregon, Washington, and Cal) could wipe the floor with the Bruins. Texas A&M to begin the season is obviously a tough game too, and a trip to Memphis in Week 3 is no easy task either. Four games where I'd confidently call them a favorite is not enough for me to believe even 6-6 is a guarantee.
But if I were to find any reason for hope, it would be that the offense, the team's big weakness last season, should improve significantly. Josh Rosen probably won't miss the back half the year again. While the line was poor at generating running lanes, that should improve with all but one of the starters back – with the highly necessary caveat that the one lineman to graduate was all-conference tackle Conor McDermott. And with five running backs getting carries last year, perhaps the additional experience would give just one of them the extra boost to become a reliable starter.
But I don't think the offense will be good enough to take UCLA anywhere, especially when the defense has to replace players like linebacker Jayon Brown and pass rusher Takk McKinley. I expect mediocrity, which is how Mora's seat got hot in the first place.
The Arizona schools were truly horrendous in 2016. Each went on losing streaks of six games or more (in the Wildcats' case, it was eight), proving that in order to survive with a poor defense, you need the offense to back it up.
Fortunately for them, they get to use youth as a (partial) excuse, giving plenty of snaps to freshmen and sophomores. Coming into 2017, Arizona State looks like the better team, with plenty of receiving options and a little more experience across the board. Arizona has the slightly better cross-division schedule though, which might be enough to push their hated rivals into last place.
* * *
Up next: the ACC.
A heaping amount of credit for statistical information goes to Bill Connelly, SB Nation's stats emperor and creator of the S&P+ analytics system. Sports-Reference's data also came in handy.
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