Midweek Review: Minnesota 20-13 Purdue

In a rainy West Lafayette, the Gophers got their first win of Big Ten play on Saturday. With an idle week upcoming, we'll have to wait a while to see if this foreshadows Minnesota's season getting back on track. But for now, the Gophers are above .500 after beating a competent opponent.

1. Minnesota went deep a lot. (By their standards, anyway.)

Tanner Morgan's first two completions of the day signaled how the Gophers would approach the rest of the day: They would use lots of play-action, they would throw short (as on a 6-yard gain through Ko Kieft), and they would go deep (as on a 32-yard touchdown to Chris Autman-Bell), with little in-between.

On the day, Morgan attempted 18 passes, and seven traveled at least 30 yards downfield. Three of those ended in completions, and if not for an Autman-Bell drop, another would have. Though he underthrew his receivers a couple of times — probably not a product of avoiding overthrows like the one he had last week, but potentially — and he was hardly asked to make intermediate throws, Morgan was accurate and kept the ball out of danger of being intercepted. It was a fairly sharp performance from a quarterback that has taken a lot of criticism since last year.

The reason Morgan could take so many shots downfield is that his offensive line kept him clean most of the day. After getting pressured on nearly half his dropbacks and sacked four times against Bowling Green, Morgan only dealt with six pressures against Purdue (according to Pro Football Focus) and was never sacked. The Boilermakers' George Karlaftis and Branson Deen each got in a couple hits, but that wasn't often enough to significantly impact Morgan's performance. His blockers did well, which allowed him to do well.

2. The Gophers' traditional run game couldn't get going against a tough Purdue front.

For once, Minnesota's successes in pass protection did not carry over to the team's run blocking. Though Purdue stopped one of the Gophers' 32 rushing attempts at or behind the line of scrimmage, they generated very little in terms of efficiency or explosiveness.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
line yards and success rate are via
collegefootballdata.com.

As I said last week, positive plays are not always successful ones. Just because Minnesota's line is powerful enough to prevent losses, that does not make using six or more linemen on more than half of the team's offensive snaps (the highest mark this season) conducive to running the ball. The Gophers got very little done despite their size advantage, recording one of their least efficient rushing days in the last decade.

Success rate via collegefootballdata.com

Success did come, however, through the "Krispy" package with Cole Kramer at quarterback. Kramer's eight carries averaged 0.278 Predicted Points Added, which for a team's full-season rushing attack would have ranked 13th in FBS last season. To put it another way — though this isn't quite how it works — Kramer was worth an estimated 2.2 points by himself.

That doesn't mean that the Gophers should replace the entire rushing game with this package or anything like that. It remains true that eventually, Kramer will need to throw, or his carries will lose their effectiveness. But for now, it's working better than the Wildcat did earlier in the year.

3. The Gophers once again went conservative on 1st downs.

Though the deep passing game made its return to great effect, Minnesota still ran a run-first offense. And by that I largely mean a run-on-1st-down offense.

Before their last possession, when running became the only route forward in the rain, the Gophers ran 12 times on 17 1st downs, averaging an mediocre-at-best 4.2 yards per carry. According to gameonpaper.com, the Gophers had just a 26-percent rushing success rate on early downs. Establishing the run just wasn't working.

Despite the big plays created by Morgan and his receivers, despite the strength of the Purdue front seven and their success slowing the run game, and despite ample evidence that leaning so hard on the run game on early downs is holding back this offense, Mike Sanford Jr. keeps making the same mistake.

4. Mark Crawford was one of the most important players in the game.

Minnesota has won the field position game this season largely because of Crawford's punting. Even so, he hadn't produced a lot of long kicks. They were regularly well-placed and made the Gophers' opponents go a long way to score, but Crawford rarely got a chance to flip the field because so many of his punts came around midfield. Entering Saturday, the Australian had delivered just one punt of 50-plus yards.

Against Purdue, Crawford had punts of 58, 60, and 60 yards, and four of his punts landed within the Boilermakers' 20-yard line. The Boilers didn't try one return. The only blemish was that one of the 60-yarders ended in his first touchback of the season.

As a result of Crawford's performance, Purdue's average starting field position following punts was their own 13.8-yard line. For the game overall, the Boilers started an average of 17.5 yards away from their end zone. They had a long way to go, and the Gophers' excellent special teams are the reason for it.

5. Minnesota gave up ground but kept the driving Boilermakers off the board.

Maybe the key story of Saturday was how Purdue faltered when in scoring position. Just over half of the Boilermakers' 86 snaps were in Minnesota territory, and they came within 40 yards of the end zone seven times. But they only scored 13 points.

First off, red zone defense is a real thing. Converting scoring opportunities is one of the most important parts of the sport, as Big 12 defenses have known for years. The sport changes tremendously when you get close to the goal-line because of how much less space there is. This is why running the ball, in the aggregate less efficient than passing, becomes the optimal decision as you move further downfield. This is how smart coaches with good passing attacks in the first 80 yards or so of the field can't come up with anything better to do at the goal-line than chuck it to the tall guy. This scenario asks different things of both sides of the ball. Defenses do not want to allow long drives, but if they do, they need to eventually clamp down.

With that established, it bears noting that while Minnesota's defense is much improved, it has been fairly underwhelming in its own territory. Entering the Purdue game, the Gophers allowed 4.3 points per scoring opportunity, which ranked 102nd in the country (with garbage time filtered out).

Another way to quantify "bend-don't-break" defense is yards per point. It in essence says how hard an offense had to work to score. A higher number is good for a defense, as that may signal that it doesn't allow many points even if they surrender a lot of yards. (Achieving high rank does not mean surrendering those yards, however; Georgia's defense is 1st in FBS in both yards per point and in yards per game.)

Using yards per point, the Gophers were around the bottom quarter of FBS again: They allowed 12.0 yards for every point the opposing offense scored. Difficult field position can depress performance in this metric, but that doesn't apply here: Minnesota has enjoyed a comfortable field position advantage in every game.

The numbers show that the Gophers have not defended their half of the field very well this season. Yet against Purdue, who had previously been respectable beyond midfield, they held their own thanks to havoc plays and timely tackles.

Note: Scoring plays that began outside of their respective zones do not count in
calculations for those zones. For example, Miami's 33-yard touchdown is not
a red zone score.

The pass rush had another strong day, finishing the game with four sacks, but two shut down Purdue scoring efforts. With the Boilers 9 yards from the end zone, Thomas Rush and Micah Dew-Treadway combined for a vital stop in the first quarter. Purdue had to kick a field goal. Nyles Pinckney and Coney Durr forced a punt by chasing down Aidan O'Connell for a 12-yard loss in the third.

Each sack was largely the product of good coverage downfield. Purdue made plenty of progress through the air over the course of the game (more on that in a moment), but Minnesota's defensive backs read a handful of plays well enough to make important tackles. Justin Walley broke up a pass that preceded a missed field goal. And on the Boilermakers' last drive, with the Gophers dropping eight defenders into coverage, Tyler Nubin was stepped in front of a comeback route to make the game-ending interception.

Though it wasn't the most efficient day for the Gophers on defense, they kept plays in front of them and were disruptive in the most important moments. Though they'll need to do better on the other side of midfield going forward, holding a team with such talent at receiver to 13 points counts as a success.

6. David Bell and Milton Wright were both excellent for Purdue.

Aside from perhaps Karlaftis, there was not a more talented player on the field than Bell this weekend. The star wideout had been out since suffering a concussion versus Notre Dame, and it looked like he might not play until he appeared in warmups. And in his return, he made his mark: on 10 targets, Bell had six catches for a game-best 120 yards. Though Walley fared better than Terell Smith covering Wright, neither was good enough to keep him in check.

Wright arguably had the better performance, though. His six catches for 91 yards came on just seven targets, and he scored Purdue's only touchdown. That score was the worst moment of an up-and-down day for Walley, who had his moments but lost Wright on his fade, instead watching O'Connell and misjudging the path of the ball. Wright had all the space he needed.

For the game, the Boilermakers didn't create that many big plays, but they did post a solid 46 percent success rate throwing the ball. As they did versus the Gophers last season and have continued to do this year, they made their way attacking the flats with pick plays and throws to open tight ends off of play-action.

That the Boilermakers were able to do this so easily despite it being such a prominent part of their scheme, and despite the fact Zander Horvath and Payne Durham were out, represents one of the Minnesota defense's true failings on Saturday. The Gophers surely knew it was coming, and they faced a weaker version of the Purdue offense, but they looked unprepared for it nonetheless.

It is possible that were preoccupied with Bell and Wright, though. Having players like that puts defenses in a bind — aside from perhaps the Maryland game (which will not feature Dontay Demus Jr.), Minnesota won't face a more dangerous receiver group the rest of this season.

7. Minnesota did not have a phenomenal day against the run but didn't allow big gains.

Mariano Sori-Marin left the game early on after being a game-time decision, leaving Jack Gibbens and a rotation of inexperienced linebackers in the middle of the Minnesota defense. Gibbens led the team in tackles, but DeAngelo "Trill" Carter had some of the most disruptive moments. Even when not finishing off a play, Carter made an impact, as when he cut through the interior of the Purdue line to blow up this 3rd-and-1 run:

Though he was a little quieter late, Carter continues his strong redshirt sophomore season. He and his teammates on the defensive line have significantly improved the Minnesota run defense, which hasn't posted a bad performance since the opening-night shellacking against Ohio State. Saturday's game at Purdue was fairly middling, but the Gophers created some negative plays and allowed just two runs of more than 10 yards. It was a good enough, if imperfect, day against Purdue's running game.

8. The wet — sometimes downright waterlogged — conditions weren't always a factor but made a mark in a couple of important moments.

The two teams put the ball on the ground a combined two times over the course of the game, and neither quarterback had a lot of wayward throws. Maybe damp jerseys and slick gloves made it tougher to grab ahold of ballcarriers, but it isn't as if either side picked up copious yards after contact. For most of the game, the rain did not make a substantive difference.

But as it got heavier over the course of the game, it became more noticeable. Players slid on the grass when they went down. Their jerseys got muddier. Pools developed on the sidelines.

sped it up for the GIF pic.twitter.com/oPZKRrsVQZ

— Internet #BlackLivesMatter (@cjzero) October 2, 2021

More pertinently: Purdue missed a field goal because of a low snap that the Boilermakers' holder couldn't properly place and turn.

Kicking to make a one-possession game a closer one-possession game was not the best idea from Jeff Brohm, but we'll set that aside for now. If this attempt had gone in, the game would have changed somewhat. The urgency for Minnesota to score might have increased, as all Purdue would need to win the game in the fourth quarter was another field goal. If the Gophers' next possession had gone a similar way as it actually did, maybe P.J. Fleck would have not punted from just beyond midfield.

Then there was Minnesota's final possession, by which point the rain was at its heaviest. Though the Gophers needed to score — ideally a touchdown to put the game out of reach, but a field goal at least offered breathing room — throwing the ball was not an option. With that fact abundantly clear to the Boilermakers, who eventually stopped the drive in the red zone, the weather might have kept the Gophers from finally putting the game away. While they picked up a couple of 1st downs, putting them in field goal range and killing nearly 5 minutes of game time, the possibility of throwing the ball might have helped them go even further. Maybe Minnesota would have scored a touchdown to put the game out of reach.

Of course, the showers just about stopped by the time Matthew Trickett hit his 38-yard field goal, which he might have been unable to do just a couple of minutes earlier. That also made the Boilermakers' comeback attempt easier; O'Connell completed four straight passes to put his team within striking distance of the end zone.

9. Fleck could have been more aggressive on 4th downs.

Though Minnesota's specialists did their jobs, that doesn't change the fact that Fleck didn't have to rely on them as much as he did. There were three big 4th down decisions that stood out as opportunities to go for the conversion.

The first was late in the first quarter, with the Gophers facing 4th-and-1 from their own 33-yard line. In nearly identical spots, Fleck has twice gone for it this year and gone 1-for-2. I don't see a reason why he shouldn't have done so a third time against Purdue. Minnesota's offensive line is built to pick up 1 yard; though this moment was early, recall that all but one of the Gophers' rushing plays gained at least a yard over the course of the full game.

The second decision was on another 4th-and-1, this time from Minnesota's 46-yard line in the third quarter. The "it's just 1 yard" logic still applies, but to an even greater degree. According to Jared Lee and A.I. Sports' 4th down model, the choice to punt was inferior to going for it by about 4 points of win probability.

A successful conversion would have bumped Minnesota's likelihood of winning up to around 70 percent. Some coaches might give it a try just to make up for Morgan's poorly timed slide on the previous play, which had cost the Gophers a 1st down. The numbers have different reasoning but would back that choice.

They'd also support going for it (albeit with less conviction) on 4th-and-4 on the other side of midfield in the fourth quarter. The odds of conversion were obviously lower in that spot, but with a small lead and less than 9 minutes to go, the reward was tantalizing: a boost of about 11 percentage points in win probability.

For going for it to be the right choice, the offense needed greater than a 30-percent chance of success. The calculator says there was about a 44-percent chance, unadjusted for the specific teams involved.

Punting there was giving away a prime opportunity to put the game away for good. Yes, plenty of head coaches make the same kinds of decisions every week, but that doesn't change the fact that Fleck can do better. If he coached more aggressively, that would give his team a distinct advantage.

10. This win improves Minnesota's chances of a high finish in the division. The rest of this season is still difficult to project.

Winning as an underdog in a conference game does a lot for Minnesota's chances of making a decent bowl game. After Saturday, ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Gophers a roughly three-in-four chance of finishing with six or more wins. FPI easily favors Iowa to win the Big Ten West (85-percent chance at the division title), but the Gophers have the second-best projected win total in the division (6.5).

Of course, they're competing against a muddled, deeply flawed field. Northwestern's defense has fallen apart, and Illinois has yet to put forth a convincing performance, so we can count them out of the race for 2nd place. For once, Purdue's offense is a relative problem despite significant improvement on defense. While Nebraska has rebounded from a rough Week 0 loss to Illinois thanks to a strong defense, the Cornhuskers' blowout wins have come against weak competition, and the jury is still out on their quarterback. And Wisconsin, perennial favorites in the West, is fielding the program's worst offensive line in years and has no passing attack. Though the front seven remains strong enough to bully a lot of their division opponents, the Badgers's secondary has given up far too many big plays.

And then there are the Gophers, with their own obvious flaws. While I believe the talent is there to finish above their peers, there are few games ahead where Minnesota will be clear favorites. Traversing a schedule full of comparably talented (or better) teams will require some luck, but also the mending of the weaker areas of this team. Morgan needs to be more consistent. Sanford needs to be more aggressive. Pass protection needs to improve. The secondary needs to demonstrate it can hold up against passing attacks better than those of Colorado and Bowling Green. The defense can't keep incurring so many drive-extending penalties. And the Gophers as a team will have to win a game or two they're expected to lose.

Making a bowl should still be the expectation this season. The Gophers can reach higher, but it'll take more from them to get there.

Next Game

When the Gophers return from their week off, they'll face a major test in the form of Scott Frost's Nebraska. For all the talk of Frost's seat being hot after the Huskers lost at Illinois, his team has played well. Their other losses have been by a combined 10 points to teams currently ranked in the top 11 of the AP Poll, and their wins have all been routs.

The key to the Huskers' success has been one of the Big Ten's best defenses. NU's opponents have mostly posted decent or better completion rates, but they've averaged 6.1 yards per pass attempt because those completions have not been damaging. The Huskers have consistently prevented big plays.

Nebraska has also gotten plenty of havoc plays. Linebackers JoJo Domann, Luke Reimer, and Garrett Nelson have combined for 17.5 tackles for loss, gotten their hands on five passes, and forced three fumbles. Then there's safety Cam Taylor-Britt, who hasn't made as much of a statistical impact in 2021 but has been one of the top safeties in the conference for the last couple of years.

The main question with the Huskers is their quarterback. Though Adrian Martinez is on his best run of passing performances in his college career, it's mostly been against bad defenses. It was just over a month ago that he looked just as limited (if not lost) against Illinois. Martinez also remains sack-prone despite his mobility, having already been taken down 18 times this season. And that's before he faces Michigan, whose defense routinely mauls opposing quarterbacks.

That said, while you may doubt the repeatability of those big performances, domination of lesser opponents is still domination. And Nebraska has achieved it through big plays. Wideout Samori Toure, a Montana transfer, has been one of the most explosive players in the country, averaging 21.3 yards per catch. The rushing attack has not always been overly efficient but has gashed opposing teams. The Huskers most recently racked up 430 non-sack rushing yards against Northwestern. Martinez is always a threat on the run. Even a disciplined performance from the Gophers' defense would likely mean giving up a few chunk plays.

If Frost has finally put together a good team — even one capable of laying an egg — the rest of the (non-Iowa) West might be in trouble. I need more data points to know just how capable these Huskers are, but right now, I have to think they're more likely to win than lose when they come to Minneapolis.