Midweek Review: Maryland 16-34 Minnesota

For once, the Gophers made it easy. Saturday's 34-16 win over Maryland was not flawless, but it was a far smoother game than Minnesota has had since trouncing Colorado, and it was over a likely better team than those now 2-5 Buffaloes. It was a game where Minnesota's experience along the lines dominated, and where the team's running backs romped for more than 300 yards. And it was a win that puts the Gophers on the doorstep of a bowl and increases their odds of finishing near the top of the Big Ten West. Not a bad place to be after seven games.

1. Minnesota's rushing attack delivered a beating.

If P.J. Fleck has a vision of what a perfect game looks like for his team, it might resemble this one. Using their behemoth offensive line, the Gophers plowed over the Terrapins with little resistance. Nearly three-fifths of Minnesota's runs gained at least 4 yards, and only three carries failed to gain yardage.

While the Gophers gained plenty of yards between the tackles, they created their biggest plays attacking the edge. Outside zone calls and intelligent cutbacks led the Gophers' running backs into open space for chunk plays like this one:

The tight ends, and even wideouts, deserve particular praise for their blocking. On the above play, note the work of Mike Brown-Stephens sealing off the safety from his position in the slot, and Chris Autman-Bell fighting his assignment more than 20 yards downfield without holding. That's uncommon effort from receivers.

Minnesota got the tight ends involved in the run game by frequently running split zone, one of their favorite concepts. On the below play, Brevyn Spann-Ford was the blocker coming across the formation to wall off the unblocked edge defender, preventing him from touching Bryce Williams. Meanwhile, Ko Kieft drove his assignment about 6 yards.

Both Spann Ford and especially Kieft held their own blocking in other concepts as well, as they have all season. They played a huge part in the Gophers' most dominant rushing performance of the year.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
line yards and success rate are via
collegefootballdata.com.

Of course, praise must also go to those carrying the ball.

2. Minnesota's young running backs justified their hype as prospects.

Mar'Keise Irving and Ky Thomas weren't supposed to have major roles on this team in 2021. Irving, a true freshman, received reps returning kicks after Mohamed Ibrahim's season-ending injury, but even after a strong showing against Colorado, he spent the next few games in a small role behind Trey Potts rather than supplementing him. Thomas only got into the game in Boulder because it was a blowout. This week, though, the two of them went off: 36 carries for 244 yards and two touchdowns.

Irving was a physical but agile runner in high school who stiff armed defenders and had the moves to find holes. He's shown plenty of shiftiness so far this season, evading tacklers and taking advantage of cutback lanes when the middle gets closed down.

Thomas was not a composite 4-star like Irving, but he was the third-highest-rated commit in Minnesota's 2020 class. As I wrote in July, he appeared to enter college with all the tools of an archetypal Minnesota running back. Maybe the strongest tool his predecessors and elders — Rodney Smith, Ibrahim, even Potts — have had was great vision. On Saturday, Thomas showed that he might have it, too, knowing where the open spaces were and when to cut into them.

He was quick enough coming out of those cuts to break off four runs of 10 or more yards, including this touchdown:

The Gophers have a good enough set of blockers to always run the ball decently, assuming they don't do it so much of that it becomes predictable. (Which has happened multiple times!) But if Irving and Thomas are as good as their peformances against the Terrapins suggest, that gives the rushing attack a much higher ceiling and explosive potential.

3. The Gophers have leaned hard into using heavy personnel in conference play.

Since 2019, Minnesota has used six or more linemen frequently as a way of clearing more space for the run game and taking advantage of one of the roster's biggest strengths, a deep and gigantic offensive line group. That became a more prominent aspect of the Gophers' offense last season, but it has really taken off in 2021, especially over the last few games.

Following the Ohio State game, where the Gophers needed a little extra meat to contend with a tenacious Buckeyes line, there was a brief drop in how often they went heavy. Miami slowed down the rushing attack with packed boxes, so Minnesota spread them out. But against Colorado and Bowling Green, the percentage of plays with heavy personnel bounced back up to around 37 percent.

In the muck at Purdue, things got a little crazy on this front, but one could figure the conditions required it. The Gophers weren't going to use six or more linemen on three-fifths of their plays going forward. And they haven't, but it's not like they've slowed down that much. Minnesota's heavy personnel rate has been greater than 50 percent for three straight weeks. Even granting that adjustments at the tail end of a blowout skew things a bit, the trend is apparent.

What do we make of this, then? One would like to think, following the season's most dominant rushing performance, that changes in personnel groupings have coincided with an increase in rushing success. But that hasn't been the case. Purdue held Minnesota to one of the least efficient performances of the Fleck era. Nebraska created more negative plays than any other Gophers opponent except Miami. Minnesota hasn't consistently created big runs all season, largely because extra blockers attract extra defenders.

The strategy looked real good against Maryland, and it absolutely has its place, but the heavy personnel packages are in general probably being overused. Iowa and Wisconsin's defenses won't have the same kinds of problems the Terps had, which is a problem for the Gophers — especially considering, as we'll get to later, how important those two rivalry games might be.

4. Tanner Morgan was asked to do little.

It should first be said that when a team is en route to 327 rushing yards, how well or often that team throws the ball is more or less irrelevant most of the time. Especially after going up 31-10, the Gophers did not need Morgan to play a major part in the game.

The ball left their redshirt senior quarterback's hand with 10:16 left in the third quarter; it traveled just 4 yards downfield before Mike Brown-Stephens took it another 31 yards, nearly to the pylon. That throw summed up Morgan's day fairly aptly: Short passes that his receivers turned into significant gains.

I don't endorse continuing to relegate Morgan to bus driver, as that approach has and will again cost the Gophers in close games if they don't break from it, and a few of the specific run calls were examples of bad coaching. (For example: a 2nd-and-19 handoff in the second quarter.) But when Minnesota puts a game away relatively early, having bullied the opposing line and having played good enough defense for a comeback to not be realistic, it's not worth griping. This week, Minnesota didn't need to throw, and that's fine.

5. Fleck ended the first half taking an indefensibly risk-averse mentality.

With 69 seconds left in the second quarter, Fleck called his second timeout of the half after a run by Thomas put the ball at Maryland's 26-yard line. The playcall and subsequent timeout were questionable choices, and certainly an odd combination: Why run when you value those seconds enough to call the timeout? But they were not terrible choices. There was plenty of time and not much of the field left to traverse. Thomas didn't pick up a 1st down, so the clock was still running. Maybe Fleck and Mike Sanford Jr., ever faithful in their rushing attack, believed that was the right call on that play (it picked up 7 yards, after all). Maybe Fleck wanted make sure the Gophers had time to score a touchdown.

Of course, that reasoning only made sense if Fleck was actually trying to score a touchdown. The Gophers were going to get the ball back after halftime. With their lead already at 17-10, a touchdown to close the half and then another one to open it would have almost certainly put the game out of reach before Maryland had any opportunity to respond. A 21-point Minnesota lead was the optimal outcome of these two drives and therefore, with plenty of time to make it happen, should have been the goal.

But as Fleck explained in his postgame press conference, he did not want to try and score the touchdown. Instead, he wanted the field goal. On his mind was a game "a few weeks ago," presumably Colorado, when a loss of yards pushed Minnesota out of field goal range. If that was the game in question, that came with even less time on the clock, which makes that situation not very comparable to Saturday. That loss also came via penalty — a rare event whose possibility Fleck should not have weighed so heavily. Nor should he have thought a lot about a sack, another unlikely occurrence that Minnesota had time (and a timeout) to make up for in the event it happened.

If the Gophers were worried about a sack or other negative play pushing them out of field goal range, they didn't have to start taking shots to the end zone. In such a good position and with so much time, there was no binary: It was not a "pack it in" or "go for it" choice. The Gophers could call any plays they wanted for another 30 seconds or so.

And if they failed to score a touchdown, that would not have been a disastrous outcome. Getting as close to the goal line as possible increases the odds of a successful field goal. Even if Fleck prioritized the field goal, he should have taken every opportunity possible to make it easier on Matthew Trickett. A 28-yard attempt, for example, is easier than a 38-yard attempt.

Failure to score any points would not have even been that damaging either, thanks to that possession after the half that Fleck thought so much about. A score on that drive still would have (and ultimately did) put his team ahead two possessions. The risk was so minimal. And Fleck played scared.

The next two plays, the Gophers didn't quite take their time, but they ran twice, earning a new set of downs. After the conversion, the next snap occurred at the 39-second mark. Thomas ran. Fleck used his last timeout, not saving it in the event he needed to prevent a fire-drill field goal attempt. Yet another run lost 4 yards. There were just under 30 seconds for 3rd-and-11. In this situation, even if Fleck wanted the field goal, the Gophers could had time to pick up a few more yards. Alternatively, they could have taken one last shot at the end zone, just in case Maryland's secondary screwed something up. If Morgan didn't see anything open immediately, he could have thrown the ball away.

Morgan let the clock run down and spiked it with 4 seconds left. The Terps blocked Trickett's kick and easily could have ran it back for a game-tying touchdown had Jakorian Bennett not failed to scoop up the ball in stride.

Had Maryland scored, it might have been the outcome that Fleck, in his momentary fixation on results and risk instead of process and reward, deserved. His coaching in that final minute was abhorrent.

6. The Gophers prevented short passes from turning into big gains, but Maryland miscues bailed them out a few times.

Taulia Tagovailoa finished 17-for-27 for 189 yards and a garbage-time touchdown, having been sacked twice. As usual, the Terrapins kept him away from pressure with a series of quick passes to their pedigreed skill players, but the Minnesota defense held up in such occasions. According to Pro Football Focus, Tagovailoa's 13 completions less than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage gained an average of just 6.2 yards.

If there was an issue, it was on the rare occasions Tagovailoa did throw deep. Offensive coordinator Dan Enos used play-action to bring down the linebackers and create space for Rakim Jarrett and others, resulting in big completions like the following:

It was perplexing, then, that Maryland kept it short so much. Even granting that the Terps dropped some passes, this was their most effective way of moving the ball all afternoon.

Meanwhile, Tagovailoa didn't always help himself out. On the below 4th-and-1 bootleg, with Boye Mafe bearing down on him, Tagovailoa had a receiver open for what would have been a vital conversion and a big gain. Instead, he left the ball short and slightly behind his target. The Gophers took advantage of the short field and put the game well beyond reach.

In the end, while it could have ended up significantly worse for Minnesota's secondary, the Terps couldn't take advantage as often as they needed to do so.

7. For another week, Minnesota's defense did its job against the run. It's come a long way since last season.

Through Week 8, the Gophers have allowed 4.2 yards per non-sack carry. That ranks 27th in the country and only behind Iowa and Wisconsin in the Big Ten. Just one opponent since the Ohio State game has posted a yards per carry figure higher than that season-long average, showing how much better the Gophers have been since that disastrous debut.

But the more meaningful improvement is how much better Minnesota has been compared to in 2020. Across the board, the front six played poorly. Safeties overran plays and turned problems into disasters. Minnesota's defense got pushed over and blown past repeatedly. Even late improvements last year that cut down on explosive plays didn't change the fact that the Gophers couldn't throw opponents off schedule.

This season, coordinator Joe Rossi's defense is up to the top half of FBS in just about every peripheral run statistic. The opener still lingers to skew explosiveness numbers, but ranking 23rd in success rate and consistently stuffing around a fifth of opposing carries on a game-to-game basis shows that most opponents cannot run at will against these Gophers. That's thanks not only to having a full offseason of development, but an influx of talent through transfers who have reinforced the box. Speaking of...

8. Jack Gibbens has been one of Minnesota's most valuable defenders this season.

Tackling statistics can lie, but there's no question of the quality of Minnesota's leader in this category. Gibbens, with 37.5 tackles to his name, has made an excellent addition to the Gophers since his transfer from Abilene Christian last winter. He is among the top Gophers in statistics both traditional and otherwise; PFF has him leading the team in the site's "stops" metric. He's not just filling a box score, but making impactful tackles that have slowed down opposing offenses.

From an evaluation standpoint, it might look better if Gibbens showed he could fight off linemen consistently; shedding blockers is a crucial part of a linebacker's job. But a major reason we don't see much of it from Gibbens (in addition to good line play)  is how quickly he reads plays and cuts through traffic to the ball. See this late Maryland screen as an example.

Challen Faamatau had tons of space in front of him, with three blockers to lead the way. If Gibbens got to his spot a half-second later, or took a worse angle to the running back, it could have turned into a big play. (Not a consequential one, that is, but one that gained a lot of yards.) Instead, he was decisive and direct, avoiding contact and blowing up the play for a 2-yard loss.

Gibbens has also contributed in coverage, and not just with his three pass breakups. He mans his zone well and regularly is in the right position to make tackles. Most of the time, he does so.

This play didn't count because of a pass interference call against Tayon Fleet-Davis
for not even pretending to run a route on an attempted pick. It is still illustrative.

Gibbens is not a perfect player by any means, but he's consistently doing his job and making important plays. Fleck and his staff deserve plenty of credit for finding and recruiting such a player.

9. Nyles Pinckney continues to revel in opponents' false starts.

This was a pleasant day to be in the stadium — arguably the first home game all year that was truly fun through the end. There were enjoyable moments earlier in the season, of course, but none of the first four home games maintained a positive feeling for so much of the game. The Miami and Nebraska wins included brilliant, festive first halves but were marked by discontent and anxiety as the Gophers let their opponents creep back into each game. Though the latter game was ultimately a cathartic victory over a division rival, staving off the RedHawks only brought confused relief. And then there was the Bowling Green game, which featured a far from jovial atmosphere.

I wouldn't describe the mood Saturday as buoyant so much as relaxed: Aside from Fleck's end-of-half disaster, there was little to cause the home fans any angst. The Gophers controlled the game. For once, kickoff was in the afternoon. The weather was splendid. It was just a nice day to be there. And ultimately, we care about this sport because we find enjoyment in it, right?

For that reason, this section is not devoted to strictly football concerns. Instead, I want to highlight something unimportant: the performance of Pickney as a celebrant of the other team screwing up.

First there was this false start by Nebraska's Nouredin Nouili, which prompted a sideways shuffle into a point to let the Cornhuskers know which direction they were going:

Pinckney offered another example this week, prancing deliberately even farther into the backfield following a snap infraction:

Also note Mafe's exaggerated pointing.

Think about this for a moment: A false start is one of the most mundane, uninteresting events in a football game. There's no accomplishment on the defense's part for its occurrence. A raucous crowd can make a false start more likely, perhaps with some egging on from the players on the field, but it's not as if fans can only get a push from those in pads. To commit a false start as an offensive player is to have made a most individual and unforced error.

Yet here Pinckney is! He did nothing to cause the opposing team's failures, and he revels in it like some defensive linemen do a tackle for loss. It is so nonsensical, possibly even stupid, and I mean that in the most sincere and complimentary way. Football doesn't have to be about business and machismo all the time. Pinckney having fun with something so insignificant is a brief, hilarious respite from the overly serious environment of sports. I hope to see more levity like this.

10. The Big Ten West is a total mess. This presents an opportunity.

There is not team in Minnesota's division — including Minnesota — that does not have a bad loss on their ledger. Wisconsin has twice been blown out. Nebraska, despite being talented, has repeatedly found innovative new ways to lose. Iowa got pummeled by Purdue. Purdue lost badly to Notre Dame and Wisconsin. And then there's Minnesota's loss to Bowling Green, which becomes more and more confounding and aggravating every week.

The point is: Nobody has staked a claim to being the definitive favorites in the division.

We can still write off a couple of the teams as we approach November. Nebraska has lost too many games to still be part of the race, and Purdue is unlikely to win the rest of their games, which the Boilermakers must do to have a chance.

The Gophers, Badgers, and Hawkeyes, though, control their own fates. Assuming they all win the easy ones (which is obviously not automatic), the West comes down to five games: Iowa at Wisconsin, Minnesota at Iowa, Nebraska at Wisconsin, Nebraska at Iowa, Wisconsin at Minnesota.

The short version: If Iowa beats Wisconsin, Minnesota must beat Iowa to win the West. If the Badgers win their next four, the Gophers have to win the rest of their games. Outside of those two specific scenarios, they'll need help. See the flow chart below for reference.

Click to enlarge.

Thanks to Ryan Schmitz for his assistance.

Winning the division would be good, but there is still a greater prize at play. Depending on what happens in the East, the winner of the West could wind up in Pasadena. When the Big Ten champion has made the Playoff in years where the Rose Bowl is out of the Playoff rotation, the runner-up has always filled the conference's spot. A two-loss champion is probably left out of the top four, but in a chaotic 2021 season, Michigan or Ohio State could sneak in, leaving that spot vacant.

Is Minnesota as good as a typical Rose Bowl team? Not even close. This is a worse team than the Gophers had two years ago. But somehow, the team that lost to Bowling Green, whose offense is being held back by conservative philosophy and bad playcalling, whose defense began the year in disastrous fashion, has a serious chance of making the program's first Rose Bowl in 60 years because the teams around them are all deeply flawed.

Nobody said college football is supposed to make sense.

Next Game

With Mike Hankwitz as defensive coordinator, Northwestern routinely flummoxed opposing offenses to the point that it didn't matter that the Wildcats rarely could move the ball well. Twice, they rode strong defense to West titles, including in the shortened 2020 season. Hankwitz was one of the most valuable assistant coaches in college football until he retired this offseason.

The new coordinator at NU is Jim O'Neil, under whom the Wildcats have not remotely seen the same results. Though the secondary has done alright enough, that's been irrelevant because of how calamitous the Northwestern run defense has been. Last year's Wildcats got by with average-at-best numbers in his area, but they've totally collapsed in 2021.

(Some help for reading the following radar chart: The better the team's rank is in a given category, the farther the corresponding point is from the center of the chart.)

Success rate and explosiveness are via collegefootballdata.com. Excluding yards
per carry, the other stats come from Football Outsiders. Stats other than yards per
carry exclude garbage time; all rushing stats exclude sacks.

Northwestern is one of the few teams in the sport to have experienced major turnover without the recruiting clout to make up for the losses. Nevertheless, this kind of decline is beyond excusing. The Wildcats have allowed more than 200 non-sack rushing yards to all but two opponents (Indiana State and Rutgers), and Nebraska ran for more than 400 thanks to Northwestern's complete inability to defend the option. O'Neil's defense is as porous as any in the conference.

For once, the Gophers should do what they revel in doing: ram the ball down the opponent's throat until it comes out the other end. Because of the quality of the Wildcats' competition, I question whether the secondary is as good as the 6.3 yards per pass suggests it is (ranking 19th in FBS). Still, safety Brandon Joseph and cornerback Cam Mitchell are talented enough for me to buy that the group is good at preventing big passes. However, the front seven will let Irving and Thomas run rampant.

Meanwhile, Northwestern has used three different quarterbacks this season, none of whom have impressed. Hunter Johnson was the starter coming out of camp before a bad game against Indiana State preceded a mid-game benching against Duke. Andrew Marty posted decent stats replacing Johnson but left with an injury. Ryan Hilinski has been the quarterback ever since; over NU's last two games, Hilinski has completed 51.6 percent of his passes despite rarely throwing downfield.

Relatively speaking, the strongest part of Northwestern's offense is the rushing attack. Evan Hull, Anthony Tyus III, and Andrew Clair have combined for more than 1,000 yards so far this season, with Hull carrying the heaviest load and scoring five touchdowns. However, the Wildcats' best rushing performances by far came against Indiana State and Duke, and they were rotten against Nebraska, Rutgers (of all teams) and Michigan. Minnesota should handle them.

Even with the shifty Stephon Robinson Jr. and Malik Washington to deal with at receiver, Minnesota doesn't have much to worry about on defense. Northwestern is not the worst team left on the schedule — we'll talk about that team in this space next week — but this is a favorable matchup for the Gophers. If they don't get in their own way, they will likely make quick work of the Wildcats.