I realize it comes across as naïve to say that the reservoir of stupidity, greed, labor exploitation, and brain trauma that is college football has a genuine, intrinsic beauty. The rituals passed down to us and that we form with our friends, the historic rivalries with neighbors, the glow of a college campus on Saturday, the idea of an affordable pastime, all have been and will continue to be watered down and slowly drowned out by the organizations whose colors we wear or to whom we pay a streaming subscription. Every criticism of the sport's culture is valid. Major college football is an all-consuming machine of a business that will continue to be corporatized and "Who's In?"-ed to death until all that is left is a soulless, exclusionary enterprise for the richest fans and most popular programs, with a sportsbook logo branded on everyone's shoulder.
And it probably comes off as pretentious to get so nihilistic, to act like these things weigh on me, but they do. My alma mater's football team plays in a stadium named for a bank. A decade ago, playing traditional rivals and preserving the sport's larger, regionalized ecosystem was less important to the school and its conference mates than expanding into new television markets. Its administration correctly backed out of playing sports during a pandemic a year ago, only to change their minds when they saw how much money everyone else was making. (Unless I'm being harsh, that is — the group who made sure their discussions were exempt from public records requests clearly was not trying to hide their motives.) It buys out basketball coaches, orders new football uniforms, and gets enough boosters on the line to build $166-million facilities but claims it has to cut a few non-revenue sports to make ends meet. Where is the beauty or altruism?
You and I both know that altruism wasn't ever there. The sport has been this way since practically the beginning. I just didn't know any better when it entranced me at 9 years old. Supporting college football has always been an ongoing moral compromise, and that was arguably never truer than in 2020.
But would I be writing this if I could quit?
For now, at least, I can still be blinded by the beauty. This week, I felt called to watch the Prayer at Jordan-Hare again. I watch some perspective of its sequel, the Kick Six, every couple months. My mind sometimes drifts to Quinton Flowers, a man who deserved as much as anyone to be fairly compensated for his labor, and who did everything he could except win in one of the most perfectly loony football games ever. This summer, I was on the field at Jones Stadium in Lubbock and gleefully recited to my football-agnostic friend every detail of November 1, 2008. I consider Minnesota's 2019 victory over Penn State one of the best memories of my life.
I long to make more of those memories. Between Minnesota's last home game with fans and their opening game of the 2021 season, it will have been 642 days. Twenty-one months without tailgates, without "Battle Hymn of the Republic," without "Who hates Iowa?" chants in the concourse. My brain tells me there's ample reason to make our wait longer, considering the recent spike in COVID-19 cases, but every part of me feels that it's been too long. God, do I want to be back.
While I'm fully vaccinated (and dearly hope you are as well), it will take a moment for me to feel home again. The most crowded place I've been since last March might be the grocery store; a crowd of potentially 50,000 people may be too much for me. I might spend the next 3-and-a-half hours fearing what happens when all of us go home, or to work, or to school. My conscience won't be clear this season, and it won't in any season to come.
Yet when I find my seating companions and can finally catch up, that apprehension will fade a little. At 6:38 p.m., when the Pride of Minnesota spills out of the tunnels, it'll fade a little more. And just before 7:00 p.m., I'll see this...
...and at least for a moment, I'll feel that rush: the genuine happiness that college football gives us, that the capitalists who run it can commoditize but not quell, and that so completely detaches us from reality. For a little while, what happens on that field will be the most important thing in the world.
Is this good for me? For anyone? I cannot say yes. But it feels too good for me to walk away.
* * *
From this point on, you will find a more straightforward preview of the Gophers' season. For each area of the team — offense, defense, special teams — I've linked the position previews I published earlier this month and included my predicted depth chart. I also ask a sum of 10 big questions facing the 2021 Gophers, divided between the three units. After all of that, I give a team-by-team overview of Minnesota's schedule.
Should you want even more preview material, my podcast partner Aaron and I have been asking and answering a new Gophers question every week since early July. Once the season starts, I encourage you to listen to our previews of Minnesota's weekly opponents, and to come back every Wednesday for my Midweek Review series.
I hope this gives you a detailed enough picture of this team entering the 2021 season. It is a lot, so feel free to consume only as much as you need. Thank you for reading.
Offense
Position previews:
Predicted depth chart:
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| Click to enlarge any image in this post. |
Minnesota will have a good offense. There's copious depth at receiver and running back, tons of experience on the offensive line, and a fourth-year starter at quarterback. The question is whether it can be great, if not reach the heights of the 2019 team. There is no mystery about what the keys are to getting there:
- Will Tanner Morgan's season look more like 2019 or 2020?
- Do the Gophers have a top-end receiver?
Morgan has to be better than he was a year ago, full stop. His accuracy could abandon him, particularly in games where he faced a tough pass rush. He wasn't as good on intermediate throws as he was in 2019, and the Gophers didn't have as much of a vertical passing game. If Morgan is more poised and more accurate, the Gophers' offense can reach its ceiling.
For that to happen, Minnesota also needs a true No. 1 receiver. Maybe not one of the program's all-time greats like Tyler Johnson or Rashod Bateman, but a player who is one of the best in the conference and can consistently make big plays.
Chris Autman-Bell was set to try and be that player, but he may miss the first part of the season after picking up an injury in practice. Head coach P.J. Fleck calls him "day-to-day," which is an upgrade from “week-to-week” but shouldn’t be considered a meaningful descriptor for Autman-Bell's status. (“Day-to-day” is one of Fleck’s favorite phrases for being opaque about injuries.) In the redshirt senior’s absence, true sophomore Daniel Jackson is the Minnesota receiver with the most career catches. He, former walk-on Clay Geary, and a litany of inexperienced underclassmen will form a potentially larger receiver rotation than Fleck typically uses. Texas A&M transfer Dylan Wright, who was a 4-star prospect out of high school, has a chance to be the team's breakout receiver.
And finally, the Minnesota offensive braintrust needs to let loose. The Gophers have been run-first since Fleck arrived, but as dangerous as Mohamed Ibrahim is, they can't ignore the talent available in the passing game. Morgan is one of the five best quarterbacks in the conference, and Fleck has recruited plenty of talented receivers. Offensive co-coordinator Mike Sanford Jr. must take advantage of the weapons at his disposal and be more willing to take deep shots than he was in his first season.
Defense
Position previews:
Predicted depth chart:
Inexperience, injury, and the pandemic-altered offseason wrecked Minnesota's defense out of the gate last season. By December, it was fixed enough to not get torched every game, but we have yet to see this group of players control a game or sustain passability for more than a couple of games. Until the Gophers prove their ability over a large enough sample, we must ask:
- How much a drop-off will there be at cornerback following Benjamin St-Juste's departure?
- Will experience and a more normal 2021 result in a better year for Tyler Nubin?
- Were the run defense's late-season improvements for real? Can the unit build on those gains?
- Does Minnesota's depth at linebacker and up front raise those position groups' ceilings, or just their floors?
- Can someone other than Boye Mafe create havoc plays?
One of Terell Smith or Phillip Howard — most likely Smith — will play boundary corner opposite longtime starter Coney Durr. Durr isn't perfect but consistently does a good job, so his spot isn't a concern. But against teams with multiple talented receivers, the Gophers need Durr's counterpart to step up, and we don't have enough reason to believe Smith or Howard always can.
Minnesota has to get better play in the back as well. I wrote about this more thoroughly in my defensive backs preview; to summarize: Nubin was one of the Gophers' most aggressive defenders last season, and it often got him into trouble. He needs to play a smarter game, or else the team will again have problems preventing chunk plays.
In Minnesota's first four games, opponents averaged 8.1 yards per non-sack carry. Over the last three, that average dropped to 5.3. The Gophers' performance against Wisconsin's rushing attack was their best of the season; they held the Badgers to just a 37.1 percent rushing success rate, which would put a defense in the top fifth of FBS if maintained over a full season. If this is a real sign of defensive improvement, then Minnesota should be at least passable against the run most weeks and maybe even hold its own against superior offenses. If it was a mirage, things won't be as bad as last year's Michigan or Maryland games, but Minnesota may difficulty stopping anyone.
The additions of Jack Gibbens, Nyles Pinckney, and Val Martin reinforce a front six that already figured to be better thanks to the experience its youngest contributors gained a season ago. It's fair to wonder, however, whether the Gophers have enough real playmakers. Fleck is certainly high on DeAngelo Carter, who has shown some reason to be, but the redshirt sophomore has yet to fully break out. Mariano Sori-Marin turned in a couple of strong performances to close last season but needs to prove he can do it over a full year.
Which brings me to a larger issue: Minnesota's defense needs to be more disruptive. The Gophers created havoc plays — tackles for loss (including sacks), interceptions, pass breakups, and forced fumbles — on 11.5 percent of opposing plays last season, which was one of the lowest rates in the country. Slowing down opposing offenses is fine, but at some point, the Gophers will need to put them behind schedule and create turnover opportunities. Mafe is one of the top pass rushers in the Big Ten but can't do it all himself. Someone else must chip in.
Special Teams
Predicted depth chart:
Minnesota's special teams have been underwhelming at best since Fleck was hired as head coach. An influx of transfers will hopefully make this unit better this season, but there's no guaranteeing that, and the incumbents need to be better as well. Here are the questions facing the specialists:
- Is Matthew Trickett the field goal kicker Minnesota has needed?
- Was Mark Crawford's disappointing freshman season another 2020 anomaly?
- Can Cam Wiley (or someone else) return kicks effectively?
As I mentioned in my special teams preview, I am sold on Trickett. I was impressed by his time at Kent State, as well as what I saw of him in the team's mid-August open practice. He might not have the range of an NFL kicker, but Trickett has enough power and accuracy to fill the role. If he doesn't stick, Fleck brought in two more transfers to give shots.
Crawford can't help that expectations were probably overly high for him coming in, being an Aussie Punter™, but his 2020 would have been disappointing regardless of his origins. Opponents often had great field position against Minnesota last season, and Crawford was partly why. He missed the first game as one of several players implied to be out for COVID-19-related reasons, and that was after an abnormal offseason, so Crawford might not have been at full-strength. Unless Daniel Sparks takes the starting punter job, Crawford will get a chance to show how good he really is this season.
Touchdowns are nice, but they're too rare to use as a barometer for kickoff return efficiency. Instead, we should see how frequently a returner reaches or surpasses the 25-yard line. If he does so consistently, then it's worth him not just taking the touchback. By this measure, out of Wiley's 15 career returns, one has been successful. Either he has to be better, or someone needs to take over for him.
Schedule
The projected win total from ESPN's Football Power Index may seem less than generous, but that's the product of so many of Minnesota's opponents being of similar quality. In seven of 12 games, the Gophers' win probability is between 30 and 70 percent. While I disagree on some of the particulars, in general, the projection makes sense: The Gophers could miss out on bowl season almost as easily as they could finish near the top of the Big Ten West.
* * *
We'll start with the least likely win on the schedule. There are a couple of spins the optimistic Gopher fan could put on Sept. 2's opener against Ohio State. The first entails something along the lines of getting the most unpleasant part out of the way first, like clearing out the soap scum in the shower before cleaning the rest of the bathroom. The second pertains more to the game itself: Ohio State is more talented than nearly any other team in the country, but they have a few important spots to fill. Is there a better time to face the Buckeyes than Week 1?
I don't disagree with the logic of the second perspective, but any reasonable person has to wonder how much of a difference it will make. C.J. Stroud, the blue-chip quarterback who beat out the Buckeyes' three other blue-chip quarterbacks to be the top choice, may not be a star in his first start but will almost certainly pose problems. As a high schooler, Stroud made the deep ball look easy, thanks to both an effortless delivery and precise touch. And he can run. And he has the best receiver pairing in college football in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, with absurd amounts of talent lining the depth chart behind them. The interior of the line would be more trustworthy with more experience, but tackles Thayer Munford and Nicholas Petit-Frere have three All-Big Ten selections between them and will likely tack on a couple more this season. (Of note: Munford may slide inside.)
When it's fully operational, nobody will stop this offense. To stand a chance, not only will the Gopher defense have to slow it down; Morgan and company will need to keep up with the Buckeyes. That is an easier task. Ohio State's pass defense was well below its standards, allowing a passing success rate ranked 114th in FBS a year ago (per collegefootballdata.com) and giving up chunk plays against Indiana, Clemson, and Alabama. The linebacker corps is all-new, too: Not one member of the group has started a game for the Buckeyes. USC transfer Palaie Gaoteote IV brings experience but missed most of last season with a concussion, and the NCAA has not yet cleared him to play for OSU.
There's a clear crack in the armor: If an opponent can avoid the Buckeyes' menacing defensive line, led by tackle Haskell Garrett, then they might be able to make it a game.
I will err, however, on the side of Ohio State's offense being too great to overcome for most teams. That includes the Gophers. Winning the turnover battle — which entails less skill than most observers like to believe — is required to have a chance; otherwise, the Buckeyes will run away with it. And that's what you should expect them to do when they come to Minneapolis.
* * *
Miami (OH) in Week 2, then, will present a welcome drop-off in difficulty. Chuck Martin's team won the MAC in 2019 but only got to play three games last year. It's difficult to predict exactly how good the RedHawks will be in 2021, but we shouldn't expect them to separate themselves from the middle of the conference or threaten their toughest opponents.
The RedHawks' top offensive weapon will be receiver Jack Sorenson, who averaged 19.7 yards per catch last season. He's supported by an experienced running game featuring Northwestern transfer Isaiah Bowser. The quarterback options are both too inexperienced to warrant confidence. Meanwhile, safety Sterling Weatherford leads a defense that has plenty of continuity but was torched in two of its three games last year. SP+ project's the unit to be 98th-best in FBS. Minnesota taking care of business against Miami means a rout.
* * *
Colorado head coach Karl Dorrell could have a pretty competent team this season. They mostly looked the part in their truncated 2020 campaign, but it's hart to know how much stock that deserves. The Buffs' most comfortable win was by 11 points over a pitiful Arizona team, and their 55-23 loss to Texas in the Alamo Bowl is a difficult data point to overlook.
True freshman Brendon Lewis will start at quarterback after Sam Noyer transferred to Oregon State and J.T. Shrout injured his knee in fall camp. But the rest of last year's offense is mostly intact, led by an experienced group of blockers. Is it a good group, though? That's questionable. Most of the team's line stats were poor. Running back Jerek Broussard and receiver Dimitri Stanley will need to live up to their reputations as big-play threats.
On the defense, Carson Wells is the star. In just six games last season, Wells made 16.0 tackles for loss, which tied for 2nd in the nation. He and linebacking partner Nate Landman combined for 10.5 sacks as well. They anchor a tough but leaky run defense that ranked 38th in success rate allowed but just 70th in explosiveness. The secondary had big-play problems, too, but it's stocked with veterans who might have improved enough to raise the defense's floor.
By the time Minnesota plays them, we won't yet know how good Colorado is. Their opening two games are against Northern Colorado and Texas A&M, which could end in blowouts in different directions. This Week 3 matchup should be a measuring stick for both programs.
* * *
The Bowling Green game will be barely a speedbump. The Falcons entered a nosedive once Dino Babers left and Mike Jinks took over. Well-traveled but much-maligned playcaller Scot Loefler was a bewildering choice to take the program out of it, and his 3-14 record so far has not disproved the doubters.
The BGSU defense isn't good — the Falcons allowed 6.7 yards per play in 2020 — but at least it has a couple of potential playmakers in linebacker Darren Anders and safety Jordan Anderson. The two combined for 11.0 havoc plays in five games last year. On offense, it's explosive running back Terion Stewart and nobody else. The Gophers will be heavy favorites.
* * *
Purdue is typically sure to bring two things on a Saturday: star receivers and a bad defense. While Rondale Moore is gone, David Bell returns. SP+ projects Purdue to have the 91st-best defense in FBS this season. Check and Check!
Throwing the ball to Bell — plus Milton Wright, Jackson Anthrop (in his sixth year), redshirt freshman Abdur Rahmaan-Yaseen, and tight end Payne Durham — is either Aidan O'Connell or Jack Plummer. Plummer was not ready for the field when he first appeared in 2019, but he was better than O'Connell in every major statistic last season. Logic would therefore dictate that Plummer should start, but head coach Jeff Brohm has not said if he will.
Update: A few hours after publication, Brohm indeed announced Plummer as the starter.
The offensive line has been a problem in West Lafayette for years, largely due to injury and inexperience, but Brohm might have built enough depth and continuity up front for Purdue to have an adequate run game in 2021. The behemoth Zander Horvath will split carries with King Doerue, who barely played as a sophomore because of an injury.
Brohm fired defensive coordinator Bob Diaco after one year, and co-coordinator Anthony Poindexter left for Penn State. They are replaced by co-coordinators Ron English and Brad Lambert, who must navigate the losses of nose tackle Lorenzo Neal Jr. and leading tackler Derrick Barnes. Those two were instrumental to Purdue fielding a run defense that consistently prevented big plays.
What's far more pressing, however, is the Boilermakers' pass defense. While George Karlaftis is one of the nation's leading edge rushers and has a capable counterpart in DeMarcus Mitchell, last year, Purdue ranked 99th in yards per attempt allowed and 109th in completion rate allowed. Three of last year's four starters return in the secondary, and Purdue needs that continuity to translate to improvement. Otherwise, we could see a repeat of last year's meeting with Minnesota, where Morgan averaged 17.6 yards per pass.
* * *
We all know this is a "now or never" year for Scott Frost at Nebraska. We all know the Frost era has been underwhelming. We all know how the school raised as much of a fuss as possible about having a pandemic football season before ultimately going 3-5. We all know the Cornhuskers are going to get trounced by Oklahoma and Ohio State, and they're probably going to inflict the same upon Fordham. We all know that the school might have dug up some NCAA infractions to get out of paying Frost his buyout if the other nine games don't go as well as hoped.
Now that that's been established: What kind of season might Nebraska have this year?
Optimists will point to the wealth of experience on defense, with a few headlining playmakers. Hybrid linebacker JoJo Domann is one of the Big Ten's most disruptive players, combining 6.5 TFLs with five pass breakups and two forced fumbles last season. Cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt and safety Deontai Williams made 9.0 havoc plays each.
However, that didn't translate to numbers that were any better than average a year ago. Nebraska allowed 5.5 yards per play, ranking 57th in success rate allowed and 74th in explosiveness (again, per collegefootballldata.com). The Huskers also offer little pass rush: They ranked 98th in sack rate, with no player posting more than 3.0 sacks.
Projection systems are generous — SP+ has Nebraska's defense ranked 29th — but I don't see how this unit will be better than okay.
On the other side of the ball, things are similar. Adrian Martinez set a program record for completion rate last season, which is less impressive when you realize the offense asked very little of its passers. Martinez averaged the fewest yards per completion of his career (9.8). In fact, that mark ranks 4th-lowest among 21st-century Husker quarterbacks, barely ahead of 2020 Luke McCaffrey (who in 2021 is at Rice).
Martinez gets back 18-reception Austin Allen and very little else from the skill positions. Utility player Wan'Dale Robinson, whom offensive coordinator Matt Lubick gave as many touches as possible, transferred to Kentucky. Montana graduate transfer and former FCS All-American Samori Toure will likely start at receiver with Omar Manning, who has recorded no stats after arriving from Kilgore College (Texas). If Nebraska doesn't get anything out of them, the Huskers will need to rely on their run game. That may be just fine; Martinez is a good runner, and the line returns enough experience to maintain last year's efficient attack. It's just that the Huskers weren't explosive at all, and all the new backs are unproven. An offense that can't create big plays in the air or on the ground isn't very threatening.
So we have a defense that isn't very disruptive outside of a few players, but isn't terrible, and an offense that can sometimes move efficiently but will seldom explode. Nebraska is looking fairly middle-of-the road, which leads FPI to project a roughly .500 record. The Huskers' visit to Minneapolis could be pivotal for both teams' seasons.
* * *
It's hard to say exactly what we'll see out of Maryland in 2021. Their five games last year were as up-and-down as they come, and recruiting pedigree hasn't translated to wins for them in a long time.
After allowing 200 or more rushing yards in all but one of their games, the Terps will desperately hope continuity leads to improvement in the front six.
But their secondary looked like a strength, holding opponents to an average of 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Cornerback Tarheeb Still broke up eight passes, which tied the conference lead. It bears mentioning, though, that Maryland's game against Ohio State was canceled, so the Terps' defensive backs didn't get to take the beating that would have likely been inflicted. The best passing attack they did face (Minnesota) averaged more than 12 yards per attempt. So it's fair to question how much last season's statistics mean.
Maryland's offense has more potential, but that again bears a caveat: We didn't see that much of it, and last season's lows were low. While Taulia Tagovailoa threw for 676 total yards and six touchdowns against Minnesota and Penn State, he was wholly contained by Northwestern and had another bad game against Indiana before leaving with an injury.
I think I like Tagovailoa. The receiving group is stacked, headlined by Dontay Demus Jr. and Rakim Jarrett. The line is neither inexperienced or packed with veterans. I just need more evidence to believe in Maryland, as it seems unlikely the Terps can consistently outgun opposing offenses or punch up in the East.
* * *
I will be frank: I do not believe in Northwestern. No team in FBS returns less production. Leading rusher Cam Porter is out for the season. The last time we saw starting quarterback Hunter Johnson, he completed less than 50 percent of his passes. None of the Wildcats' top four receivers from 2020 are back. This will most likely be a dreadful offense.
I'm not dumb enough to count out a Northwestern defense, but this year's edition also figures to decline a little bit after losing veteran linebackers Paddy Fisher and Blake Gallagher, as well as All-Big Ten cornerback Greg Newsome II. Defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz retired, too, with longtime NFL assistant Jim O'Neil taking his spot. O'Neil will have experience up front and a bona fide star in the back with safety Brandon Joseph. Joseph was a consensus All-American as a redshirt freshman and will be a 1st- or 2nd-round pick in April's NFL Draft.
Slight issues transitioning to O'Neil may occur at the start of the year, but everyone should settle in by the time the Gophers visit Evanston on Oct. 30. While the NU defense could make things ugly, I don't see the Wildcats scoring enough to have a serious chance.
* * *
Illinois brings back one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country, a third-year starter at quarterback, two proven running backs, and all but three defenders who started a game for the Illini in 2020.
And they are still favorites to finish last in the Big Ten West this season. There just isn't enough firepower on offense — that third-year starter at quarterback, Brandon Peters, has not had one good season — and the defense is short on playmakers outside of run-stopping linebackers Jake Hansen and Khalan Tolson. On the ground, Illinois might be able to cope with the division's burly lines and penchant for manball. But other teams will most likely continue to hurt the Illini through the air and easily contain Peters.
Having had success at Wisconsin and (for a moment) Arkansas, Bret Bielema may in time raise the program's floor in a way Lovie Smith never could. However, his appointment showed a severe lack of creativity: In the next few years, how high can Illinois finish by matching the styles of their competitors in the West? Maybe that's not as important as simply getting out of the basement, which might not even happen anyway. In the short term, the Illini might be equal to or worse than every opponent on their schedule outside of Charlotte.
* * *
For Iowa win the West, the Hawkeyes need to improve on offense. They were an efficient rushing team last season behind center Tyler Linderbaum, but there weren't enough big plays outside of running back Tyler Goodson and receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette. Spencer Petras, while not terrible, was one of the worst quarterbacks in the Big Ten by just about any measure.
Improvement begins with continuity. Linderbaum is one of just two starters returning on the offensive line, but all five projected starters at least took offensive snaps a season ago, and only one (right tackle Nick DeJong) has not started a game. Goodson is back, and so is leading pass-catcher Sam LaPorta, Iowa's tight end. Though Smith-Marsette is gone, junior receivers Nico Ragaini and Tyrone Tracy Jr. have caught a combined 116 career passes. It's still hard to find playmakers in the lineup.
So, then, it falls to the second-year starter Petras. If Petras takes a step forward and make opposing defenses fear the deep ball, that will open things up for the running game to break a few more big runs. If he can't, redshirt sophomore Alex Padilla will get a chance to do so instead. Padilla has thrown just two official passes since becoming a Hawkeye, so it's unwise to assume that his apparently impressive practices will immediately translate to being a Big Ten-caliber player.
Barring disaster, Iowa is bowl-bound, regardless of the offense's performance, because of coordinator Phil Parker's defense. Despite losing three front seven players to the NFL Draft and another to graduation, Iowa should maintain its track record of big-play prevention thanks to a veteran group of linebackers and defensive backs. Ten letterwinning defensive backs return, including fourth-year starting cornerback Matt Hankins and hybrid ("Cash") safety Dane Belton.
Up front, there is still talent. Weakside linebacker Jack Campbell was one of the team's top havoc-wreakers (8.5 havoc plays), and defensive end Zack Vanvalkenburg (13.5) was only behind current Carolina Panther Daviyon Nixon. Plus, there's already hype around redshirt freshman tackle Yahya Black. If Iowa fields a competent interior line — and, I mean, it's Iowa — the Hawkeye defense should live up to its preseason No. 1 ranking in SP+. The Gophers will hope that isn't the case after having their run game shut down and quarterback harassed in last year's meeting.
* * *
The Big Ten's darlings last season, Indiana, return most of last year's roster. So do a lot of other teams, so that doesn't mean the Hoosiers are going to win the East, but it's a good start.
The star is obviously Michael Penix Jr., the multidimensional quarterback whose unremarkable 56.4-percent completion rate had much to do with how often he had to evade pass rushers. According to Pro Football Focus, no regular quarterback in the Big Ten had as large a proportion of his dropbacks (40.4 percent) come under pressure. Though PFF graded him as the best of the group under pressure, that couldn't prevent a nearly 22-point gap between his kept-clean and under-pressure completion rates. (That dropoff was roughly average for Big Ten passers.)
It is imperative, therefore, either that the Indiana line improve upon its pass blocking or that offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan scheme around this deficiency. PFF's highest-graded Hoosier pass-blocker, part-time guard Mike Katic, will move into a starting role this season. There is a lot of starting experience at the other four spots, which should result in a bump in performance. We will see if that bump is substantial enough to give Penix the time he needs.
At the skill positions, there's still plenty to work with after losing slot receiver Whop Philyor. All-American deep threat Ty Fryfogle and third-team All-Big Ten tight end Peyton Hendershot each took advantage of the extra year of eligibility the NCAA granted. Hendershot and the 6-foot-4-inch Miles Marshall should be favorite red zone targets for Penix. If the Hoosiers can find suitable successors to Philyor and running back Stevie Scott III, they will reliably move the ball.
Where one stands on the 2020 Indiana defense depends on how reliable you consider turnovers to be as a statistic. Forcing fumbles and getting hands on passes requires skill and can generally be counted on as predictive. But turning turnover opportunities into turnovers is more complicated. Anyone who's watched a game knows that the ball bounces too weirdly to call recovering fumbles more than an exercise in luck. While we can intuit that certain defenders have better hands than others, a team who intercepts much more than a quarter of the passes they defense probably shouldn't be expected to do so in the future.
The Hoosiers intercepted 34 percent of the 50 passes they defensed last season. That translates to roughly six more interceptions than they normally should have been expected to make, given how often the team's defenders got their hands on the ball.
Will Indiana repeat that feat in 2021? It's hard to say. The 2013 Michigan defense intercepted passes at the same rate as last year's Hoosiers, returned most of their ball-hawking players the next season, and saw interceptions make up just 18.6 percent of the passes they defensed. That doesn't mean the turnovers will dry up for Indiana. Nor does it mean that the team isn't better at intercepting passes than other teams are, or that they won't turn that possible advantage into another year where they outperform expectations. We just shouldn't assume that these things are true, and given their level of overperformance, we should consider last year's Hoosiers at least a little lucky.
Defensive coordinator Kane Wommack turned those turnovers into the head coaching job at South Alabama, and defensive tackle Jerome Johnson and safety Jamar Johnson have moved on as well. Those are the only major subtractions from what was and will still be a very strong defense. New coordinator Charlton Warren inherits 10 players who have been full-time starters (Marcelino McCrary-Ball returns from an ACL tear to play the hybrid "Husky" position), led by All-Americans Micah McFadden at linebacker and Tiawan Mullen at corner. Reese Taylor could Indiana's next star on the outside after breaking up seven passes and intercepting one a year ago. The front four has been reinforced an influx of transfers, including 7.0-TFL former Ole Miss end Ryder Anderson.
There's plenty of talent here for Indiana to give better teams problems and make a run at double-digit wins, should they successfully navigate a difficult schedule. When the Gophers travel to Bloomington in November, the hosts will likely be the better team themselves.
* * *
I want to establish one thing about Wisconsin up front: The Graham Mertz we saw at the end of 2020 will not be the Graham Mertz we see by the time he's done in Madison. That player was inaccurate even in a clean pocket, looked uncomfortable when under pressure, and offered no downfield threat. He looked nothing like the quarterback who breezed past Illinois and Michigan earlier in the season, nor like someone who was Wisconsin's highest-rated quarterback prospect of the internet era. Sooner or later, Mertz will look the part, and he'll be a real problem for the rest of the Big Ten.
The returns of receivers Danny Davis III and Kendric Pryor, who each missed chunks of last season due to concussions, will give Mertz a boost out of the gate. The UW offense was much better with the two of them than it was without them. Tight end Jake Ferguson, who's caught at least 30 passes each of the last three seasons, remains a threat as well.
The Wisconsin run game, meanwhile, was below its usual standards a year ago. The Badgers' rushing success rate was a merely decent 46.1 percent, and Jalen Berger and Garrett Groshek didn't break off as many big runs as the team needed. Much of that can probably be attributed to lineup inconsistencies: Per PFF, all five offensive line positions gave 50 or more snaps to multiple players. There's now plenty of experience up front. (Pedigree doesn't show up much on this year's projected group of starters, but it's worth noting that Wisconsin has seven blue-chip underclassmen on the roster.)
Much of the prognostication above, however, is based on too little information to be totally informed. Wisconsin was originally going to play Appalachian State and Notre Dame, two good teams that would have given a better idea of how good the offense was, but then the pandemic hit. When the truncated season came together, the Badgers had three games canceled due to players being unavailable, and many of those players couldn't participate in games that the rest of the team was able to play. Some might have performed worse than they otherwise might have because they contracted COVID-19. So Wisconsin's offense was probably going to be better than what we saw in 2020, and that should be reflected in 2021... but do we really know?
What we absolutely know is that coordinator Jim Leonhard will field a top-tier defense. The whole linebacker corps and nearly every defensive back with starting experience returns for 2021. Jack Sanborn and Leo Chenal remain rocks in the middle.
If there's a concern in either group, it's whether the Badgers can get enough out of both cornerback spots. Though Caesar Williams made the coaches' All-Big Ten third team, statistically, Faion Hicks was the UW corner who took a step up last season. Hicks, always a handsy defender, committed no penalties in coverage in 2021 and allowed a career-best 41.4-percent catch rate (per PFF). Williams, meanwhile, broke up fewer passes, allowed a higher completion rate, missed a higher proportion of his tackles, and allowed more yards per catch than he did the previous season.
As a team, Wisconsin ranked 2nd in the country in completion percentage but 96th in yards per catch allowed. While opponents couldn't throw the ball well often, when they could, the Badgers got burned.
On the ground, though, opponents could do nothing: UW ranked 3rd in rushing success rate allowed and 1st in collegefootballdata.com's explosiveness metric. Regression might come due to some new bodies up front, but nose tackle Keeanu Benton and ends Matt Henningsen and Isaiah Mullens are all upperclassmen who have received significant playing time. The Badgers should be fine.
No team in the West has as high a ceiling as Wisconsin. Whether they reach it depends on Mertz progressing and the players around him staying healthy. I expect the Badgers to win the division, and to hold onto Paul Bunyan's Axe.
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Minnesota could have a lot of close games this season, and that leaves a wide range of possibilities for their final record. Depending on one's levels of optimism, there are probably between six and nine games on the schedule that we can consider close enough for the outcome to be uncertain. On a recent podcast, I said their floor is four regular season wins. I'd put the ceiling at 11. Either extreme comes with a lot of conditional statements attached, and the answer will likely be somewhere in the middle. I feel fairly positive about the 2021 Gophers and not as high on some of their opponents, so I'll say they win slightly more toss-ups than they lose, but will struggle to steal games from superior competition.
Predicted regular season record: 8-4
Predicted bowl: Cactus Bowl (Phoenix, Arizona) vs. Baylor
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