Midweek Review: Minnesota 24-17 Nebraska

Minnesota's return from COVID-19-forced hiatus went better than expected. Despite all the holes in the Gophers' depth chart, they left Lincoln with a 24-17 win over Nebraska that elevates their record to 3-3 (and keeps the $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy in Minneapolis). It was an impressive but at times frustrating win that demonstrated each team's significant flaws and gave the victors hope that those flaws may have started to improve.

1. Nebraska couldn't hurt Minnesota downfield.

Going into Saturday, Adrian Martinez's completion rate this season was a career-high 70.8 percent. The Cornhuskers were passing at a 44.1-percent Success Rate, which is far from elite but above-average. After Martinez turned in gutsy performances against Iowa and Purdue, it might have looked like Nebraska's passing game was finding a rhythm.

Instead, that passing game is what sunk the Huskers against the Gophers. Martinez threw for 111 yards on 27 attempts, and the team's passing Success Rate was a measly 33.3 percent. On passing downs, Nebraska's Success Rate was 11.8 percent. They got nothing done through they air, especially when they needed it.

Though it was a disappointing performance, the ways it disappointed are not surprising. The biggest reason for Nebraska's struggles was a recurring issue already: The Huskers don't have a consistent vertical game. Martinez's completion rate is so high because Nebraska hasn't asked him to go deep. Through Saturday's game, he's averaged 6.5 yards per passing attempt. Nebraska's offense has been one of the least explosive in the country because Scott Frost, knowing his quarterbacks' limitations, hasn't asked much of them.

Those limitations were on full display in Lincoln. Over...

...and over...

...and over again...

...Martinez couldn't hit his receivers downfield. When he had to go to the sideline with a possible injury early in the game, Luke McCaffrey threw two passes in his stead. He completed neither; Tyler Nubin was in the right place and reacted quickly enough to intercept the second off a bounce.

Nebraska's receivers got open often enough — in cases due to scheme-created mismatches, like Wan'Dale Robinson attacking a linebacker on a wheel route. (See the first GIF.) But the same kind of quarterback play that has held them back all year prevented them from taking advantage.

2. Martinez caused trouble for a Minnesota run defense that at other points looked at its best.

The Gophers' defense was great on the Huskers' first three drives. Nebraska gained 27 yards on 14 plays. While some of their problems moving the ball were self-inflicted, like a 9-yard loss on a backwards pass, they were also the result of Minnesota playing intelligently. The Gophers fit the run as well as they have all season. See the below play, where Rashad Cheney disposed of the Huskers' guard to bring down Martinez while Mariano Sori-Marin and Tyler Nubin supported the edge.

The Minnesota linebackers were smart and decisive, and the line did a better job than in prior games of shedding blockers. This is another good example, with Sori-Marin and redshirt freshman James Gordon flowing to the ball and combining to make the tackle. Meanwhile, nickelback Justus Harris did well to maintain the outside against a pulling tackle.

It was fantastic defense. It just didn't last. The Huskers averaged 7.1 yards per play on their next four possessions, two of which resulted in touchdowns, while another ended in a missed 32-yard field goal.

The biggest reason: The Huskers' run game got going, led by their quarterback. Martinez had 14 carries for 102 yards and a touchdown, only some of which came via scrambles. Nebraska has plenty of designed quarterback runs in their playbook, something Martinez demonstrated on this counter play out of an empty backfield:

There was also read option and inverted veer, such as this 24-yard run:

Martinez was both Nebraska's most efficient and most explosive runner. The non-Martinez Huskers averaged 4.8 yards per carry, broke just two runs of 10 or more yards, and accounted for four of the team's five runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage. Nebraska's inability to create big plays by any other means (including, as covered, by passing) has put a low ceiling on their offense, and that was true against Minnesota.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
Line Yards and Success Rate are via
collegefootballdata.com

The above table does not represent an ideal stat line for the Gophers' defense. Still, Saturday counts as one of their top performances in 2020, considering how one-dimensional the Huskers' attack was and how prone to bursting that defense has been.

Sori-Marin and DeAngelo Carter, for their parts, had their best games as Gophers. The former earned Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week honors for registering 12.0 tackles (6 solo, 12 assisted) and a forced fumble. He's no coverage linebacker, but for the first time, he looked like a fitting successor to Thomas Barber as Minnesota's run-stopper in the middle.

Carter had to make up for the absence of Micah Dew-Treadway, and he did. His 3.0 tackles (1 solo, 4 assisted) won't look that impressive on the stat sheet, but he put in a good performance and now leads the Gophers' interior linemen in tackles for the season (8.5). Though he didn't make plays behind the line, he shed tackles and made them before the ballcarrier could do much damage; plays ending in a Carter tackle averaged 2.8 yards.

Mobile quarterbacks seemingly still give Joe Rossi's inexperienced defense trouble, but it gave reason to believe that it is improving.

3. The returning Boye Mafe played a crucial role in the Gophers' win.

Mafe missed the Purdue game, but Minnesota's starting rush end was available in Lincoln and made two of the team's biggest defensive plays. First, there was his strip-sack of Martinez that gave the Gophers the ball in Huskers territory, setting up a touchdown:

Mafe only got credit for the "strip" part of this play, presumably because
Martinez never hit the ground. I disagree with this ruling.

Then, as Nebraska tried to respond, Mafe sacked Martinez on 3rd down to force a punt. (Credit to Daniel House for prompting Mafe's detailed explanation of this play after the game, including why he went with the speed rush.)

The turnover was obviously much more important, but according to collegefootballdata.com, these two plays were worth about 13.5 points of combined win probability to the Gophers. That's a major contribution from Minnesota's most disruptive defender.

4. Mike Sanford called a good game that still featured frustrating moments.

Whenever Rashod Bateman left the program for good, the question was going to loom: What is next for the Minnesota offense?

That question gained heightened salience with the news that the Gophers were going to be without tight ends Ko Kieft, Jake Paulson, and Bryce Witham; and offensive linemen John Michael Schmitz and Axel Ruschmeyer, the latter two of whom were only starting due to full-season absences for two projected starters. 

Co-coordinators Sanford and Matt Simon had to get creative to work around their weaknesses this week. And in ways, they did. Eight different players received targets — none more than 9 targets — including the previously little-used Clay Geary, Seth Green, Mike Brown-Stephens, Bryce Williams, and Brevyn Spann-Ford. Spann-Ford made his first catch of the season on a well-timed pop pass, which was a fresh idea in a spot where the Gophers have lacked them (even if Nebraska had scored the same way not long before).

Minnesota also adapted to their personnel by changing how they implemented that personnel. Two-back sets returned for the first time since the Michigan game, which was paired with play-action on this rollout:

To reinforce the line, Sanford relied on heavier personnel groupings. Just over a quarter of the Gophers' plays featured six offensive linemen, easily the highest rate of the season. That included Mohamed Ibrahim's first touchdown:

Minnesota showed a hint of newfound situational awareness late as well. With less than 5 minutes left and a lead to protect, P.J. Fleck's Gophers would normally open a drive by trying to drain the clock,  barreling straight into the opposing defense in a misguided show of faith in the run game. Instead, Sanford broke tendency and called a play-action pass to Geary for a much-needed first down. It was also Tanner Morgan's best throw of the game.

The day demanded adaptation, and the Gophers' offensive braintrust responded... partly.

That pass to Geary was Morgan's fifth 1st-down pass of the game. There were 24 prior 1st downs. Over the whole game, the Gophers ran on 40 of 70 plays, good for a run rate (57.1 percent) in line with Minnesota's season-long rate (59.0 percent). P.J. Fleck preaches "balance," but his team seldom achieves that.

There was also the matter of pace. Too many times, the Gophers came hazardously close to delay of game penalties due to their system of having Morgan check with the sidelines to confirm or alter playcalls. Fleck has for years been overly eager to use his timeouts to avoid those penalties (not just in the first half, as he claims), which is both a problem he can avoid by being more judicious and one the offense can avoid by not taking so long to run plays.

Both the stubborn adherence to running the ball and the slow pace have been habitual issues for a long time. It is well past time that the coaching staff remedy them.

5. The normally efficient Minnesota rushing attack was anything but.

With five regulars missing up front between linemen and tight ends, it was always going to be tougher for the Gophers to run the ball than it normally is. The degree to which it was tougher was surprising.

A 33-percent Success Rate is woeful; if a team sustained that over a full season, they would have one of the 10 least efficient rushing attacks in the country. Even against Purdue, who held Minnesota to their lowest rushing average of 2020, were the Gophers more efficient.

Of course, they also posted their second-best Highlight Yardage average of the season, but it's worth noting that they did so on their lowest Opportunity Rate of the season.

In plainer terms: The Gophers' running backs had relatively few opportunities to break off big runs, and they took advantage of those opportunities better than they usually do. The second part is not a problem — Minnesota needs more explosiveness, and Ibrahim and Cam Wiley deserve credit for providing it — but explosive plays are rare events. They're even rarer if an offense generates few positive plays whatsoever. A boom-or-bust offense is inherently going to bust far more often than it booms, which is why it's more disconcerting that Nebraska slowed down an efficient offense than it is encouraging that Minnesota found some big plays this week.

Setting aside theoretical discussions of variance: The running game clearly was weaker with redshirt sophomore center Nathan Boe and true freshman tackle Aireontae Ersery, as well as a makeshift tight end group of Spann-Ford (who is often flexed), Seth Green (officially a receiver), and occasionally Austin Henderson (a true freshman). None of the backups had outright bad games, and they were not the only Minnesota blockers to make mistakes or lose blocks. But the unit as a whole was worse off.

On the following play, Boe didn't climb to the second level from his double team quickly enough, and Nebraska's linebacker broke up the play. But Ersery also was beat off the line, and the Huskers quickly identified the run and closed gaps.

Boe and the veteran tackle Sam Schlueter each got bullied on this inside run, which Nebraska again quickly diagnosed.

In general, the lanes that have existed in prior games just weren't open in this one. This is were the Gophers' many absences hurt them the most.

6. Morgan was solid, if unextraordinary.

Nebraska has not had a pass rush all year, and one did not appear against Minnesota. Morgan was hit twice but never sacked; the most tangible effect of any pressure on his statistics were three passes broken up at the line of scrimmage.

Morgan's line was also hurt by drops — three of his passes bounced off of untouched receivers' hands, and two were pried out of those hands by defenders. If those passes were caught, he would have finished the game with his best completion rate of the season. Instead, it was his second-worst.

That would have been a fairly impressive set of numbers, too, because 21 of Morgan's 30 throws were to targets at least 10 yards downfield. Only against Maryland, when he had half as many attempts, was a higher proportion of his throws of intermediate or deep distance.

It was clear at points that Morgan is still developing rapport with some of his young receivers, with multiple throws going too far off-target to be throwing errors. He also flat-out missed a couple of times and nearly threw an interception in the red zone. Morgan did not put forth an incredible performance. Still, he was good enough for the Gophers to win.

7. Fleck's game management was again an adventure.

Using all three first-half timeouts in the first 19 minutes is frustrating, especially since two were taken on offense to avoid losing 5 yards apiece. But Fleck at least was correct to spend his first to avoid Sori-Marin covering Robinson man-to-man. Avoiding a mismatch like that in the first half is legitimately a good coaching decision.

Not all of Fleck's actions were so justifiable. In addition to taking those other two timeouts, he punted on 4th-and-2 from his own 47-yard line, and he for some reason did not have his offense wait for the officials to review this Treyson Potts run that was supposedly short of the end zone.

It was a bizarre moment that could have been avoided rather easily. I understand wanting to catch the defense off-guard by hurrying to the line, but this was probably a touchdown. The Gophers weren't guaranteed to come away with points on this drive, as evidenced by the fact it took them four downs to score from within two yards of the end zone.

Of course, Fleck deserves credit for the Gophers' best act of game management, which came about 12 minutes later. Ibrahim, needing only to stay upright to score his third touchdown of the day, instead took a seat because at that moment, the time on the clock was more valuable than the points.

According to Morgan, the Gophers practice these situations regularly. "Down time," as they call it, calls for the ballcarrier to do exactly what Ibrahim did: avoid scoring and giving the opponent another possession. Fleck may get some things wrong on gameday, but that level of selflessness and presence of mind is proof of a well-coached team.

8. Some important officiating decisions went in Minnesota's favor.

Though there was not as high-profile a mistake as at the end of the Purdue game, Minnesota got some of the game's biggest calls. The worst was this supposed holding call against guard Ethan Piper that wiped out a late Nebraska touchdown.

Then there was a missed infraction by Benjamin St-Juste, who wrapped his arm around Robinson's shoulder pads and prevented the Huskers' playmaker from making a 3rd-down catch early in the game. An 8-yard Nebraska punt followed.

But perhaps the most consequential call of the game, however, was a correct one: Cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt's ejection for targeting. Taylor-Britt has been arguably Nebraska's top defender this season, and he had earlier shown a nose for the ball against the Minnesota run game. But he forcibly went helmet-to-helmet on Morgan and was assessed a targeting penalty.

The Gophers went from attempting a field goal to scoring a touchdown, and the rest of the game, they didn't have to worry about Taylor-Britt. On his 16 throws after the ejection, Morgan averaged 1.8 more yards per attempt than he did on those before it. It also helped that his receivers stopped dropping the ball, of course, but it's possible that facing Quinton Newsome instead made things easier on the Minnesota offense.

9. A field position advantage gave Minnesota an important boost.

Between Nubin's interception and the aid of a 14-mile-per-hour wind on punts, Minnesota had less work to do with the ball than Nebraska did. Excluding a kneeldown before halftime, on average, the Gophers started their drives just past the 33-yard-line, a nearly 9-yard difference between them and the Huskers. It was the second time all season the Gophers had significant field position advantage, as well as their best average starting field position of the season. In a fairly even game, that gap can go a long way in determining the result, so the Gophers are fortunate to have that factor go their way.

10. It's not wrong to hold up the shorthanded Gophers' victory as a significant achievement, but their 33 absences illustrate the absurdity of pandemic football.

Not every one of the 33 players unavailable for Saturday were missing because of positive COVID-19 tests or contact tracing. Curtis Dunlap and Braelen Oliver, for example, have been injured all year. But that number is ridiculous. If a different set of players, higher in football importance but in equal in number, were to have been unavailable, we might be talking about a futile blowout loss instead of a gutsy win. While Minnesota deserves credit for succeeding despite the absence of several regulars, the football-centric narrative of Saturday distracts from the stupidity of trying to play a season at all.

Of course, Minnesota wasn't even the most shorthanded team to play this weekend.

Baylor will be without 47 players, coaches, staff members and other personnel today against OSU. Baylor shut down its football facility due to COVID-19 on Thursday. But the game will be on at 2:30 p.m.

— John Werner (@JohnWernerTrib) December 12, 2020

"But the game will be on at 2:30 p.m." is a good summary of this sport in 2020.

This college football season is a failure. The sport's lack of central leadership, decades of fiscal irresponsibility, and screwed up priorities have led to hundreds of athletes, coaches, and staffers getting infected and becoming at risk of potentially serious long-term health effects that scientists are still trying to figure out. The world is on fire, athletic programs have tried to act like they are fireproof, and we've acted like they're right.

I have no doubt that Fleck and his assistants and staff have tried their best to keep players safe, but the circumstances make that goal nearly impossible to achieve. They shouldn't have to try, and we shouldn't be here.

Next Game

The game was originally canceled, but barring more COVID-19 problems, Minnesota and Wisconsin will indeed play for a 130th time in 2020. I originally previewed the Badgers at the end of my Midweek Review post for the Purdue game, and as always, I'll have a more complete (and up to date) preview in this week's episode of We Are Maroon and Gold. But for now, here are the key points.

The Badgers' offense is not what it has been in prior seasons. They can occasionally create big plays off of play-action, but the passing game is fairly inefficient. Freshman quarterback Graham Mertz's favorite and most consistent target has been tight end Jake Ferguson; without Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor, the receiver position has been young and ineffective.

Perhaps more disconcerting is the run game, which hasn't found any hint of explosiveness and has only posted middling blocking and efficiency stats. The line isn't meeting expectations, and running backs Nakia Watson, Garrett Groshek, and Jalen Berger haven't made up for the loss of Jonathan Taylor.

That said: opponent-adjusted analytics systems like Wisconsin's offense better than the average human observer or surface-level statistics do. It's hard to discern signal from noise for a team who has only played five games. But it's important to note that their three worst (and most recent) games came against Northwestern, Indiana, and Iowa defenses that are somewhere between very strong and outright elite, depending on your opinion on the repeatability of all Indiana's takeaways. Minnesota's defense is not only far worse than any of those teams'; it's also at least worse than the Michigan defense the Badgers torched, if not also the Illinois defense the Badgers also torched.

It's not impossible that the Gophers hold the Badgers to another disappointing performance. After all, their last two games, they've slowed down a couple of unexplosive offenses enough to win. This young defense might have improved enough to do it again to the Badgers' offense.

The real test for Minnesota will come when they have the ball. Three weeks ago, Wisconsin appeared to have the best defense in the country. It no longer seems that way, but it's clearly still comparable to Iowa's or Northwestern's. The Badgers rank 1st in Success Rate allowed (excluding garbage time; via collegefootballdata.com) and 12th in yards per play. It is exceedingly hard to move the ball against Wisconsin.

The way to beat them, then, is by creating big plays, which the Badgers have been somewhat prone to allowing. The problem is that it's hard to see the Gophers doing that, as they weren't very explosive even before Bateman opted out. Without him, big plays will be even harder to create. To put dents in this Badgers defense, Sanford and Simon will need to show more creativity and aggressiveness than they have to this point.

The Badgers will be and should be favored. Against a defense this good, the Gophers need to be excellent, and their own defense cannot play as poorly as it has for much of the year. And on top of all that, they might need some help in the aspects of football that are hard to predict or create, like big kick returns and timely turnovers. Minnesota absolutely can win, but it'll take a lot for that to happen.