January 05, 2023

Midweek(ish) Review: Minnesota 28-20 Syracuse

1. Mohamed Ibrahim is the undisputed king of Minnesota running backs.

Ibrahim is the most special Gopher I have watched in my admittedly short time following this program, and someone greater might not ever follow him.

He is as intelligent a running back as you can find, with the patience to wait for a crease and the vision to identify the tiniest opening. Ibrahim is even better in this regard than even Rodney Smith, the back he followed who played with plenty of intelligence in his own right. And Ibrahim combines his smarts with a slashing, bruising style, which owes to his strength and a naturally low center of gravity. At his height, he can cut with ease, and few defenders can get low enough to out-leverage him. With his strength, Ibrahim fells even those that can. What he lacks in breakaway speed he made up for with broken tackles and acceleration, the ability to burst through gaps and into the open field. He is a squat yet nimble tank, a tenacious bully, the ultimate form of the bowling ball running back.

Four thousand six hundred sixty-eight yards. Fifty-three touchdowns. The best.

2. A wacky third quarter secured the win for Minnesota.

We should have known what was coming when Dragan Kesich's kickoff to open the second half plopped down at the 13-yard line and, instead of going toward the end zone or out of bounds, just sat there. This was going to be an abnormal quarter, and the Gophers were going to benefit.

Not that the next several plays gave any further indication of that. The Orange marched down the field in alarming, if mundane fashion through a series of quick passes and a costly facemask penalty against Mariano Sori-Marin. A couple plays later, an ineligible man downfield call undid Darius Green's missed sack, and Syracuse couldn't find their way out of that hole. Andre Szmyt's 40-yard field goal made it a 14-10 game. Minnesota went three-and-out, though, and Syracuse got right back into Minnesota territory on a couple chunk runs by LeQuint Allen.

With their win probability, according to Game on Paper, at its highest point since their opening drive, the Orange were closing in on their first lead of the game. At which point Garrett Shrader gave it all back.

Coleman Bryson's 70-yard pick-six, the most impactful play of the game by Win Probability Added, erased his team's defensive problems at the start of the half. It didn't put the game away, but it gave Minnesota the breathing room they desperately needed. Syracuse came back on the next drive and stalled in the red zone, at which point Dino Babers chose (questionably) to kick a field goal on 4th-and-5.

Minnesota then got another big play, this time out of their kick returner. Quentin Redding gave the Gophers an immediate spot in the red zone with this 72-yard return (benefiting in part from a few Orange coverage men slipping), a spot from which they'd score just two plays later.

The Gophers ran five plays in the third quarter but came out of it with an extra 14 points. Bryson and Redding deserve plenty of credit for their contributions, but it is worth admitting that those 14 points did not come by consistently repeatable methods. Turnovers and special teams plays (especially those that score points) tend to swing games, and Minnesota got that swing.

3. For the second straight year, atrocious field conditions marred Minnesota's bowl game.

It was a recurring theme in bowl season: The fields sucked. In the case of the Pinstripe Bowl, it was for predictable reasons. A baseball field in New York in December is not likely hold up when used for football. The roughshod playing surface hurt the Orange.

It hurt the Gophers.

It just made the game all the sloppier, and in turn a less enjoyable a viewing experience. Such terrible conditions are a problem for more than entertainment reasons, though. The players involved can lose their footing — which they did at many points at Yankee Stadium — and suffer injuries. It's something of a surprise that no injuries occurred in this game, considering how many players fell down. One of the consequences of this sport lacking a strong governing body is that there's no standard for field conditions. If the conferences don't require that bowls have adequate, safe playing surfaces, there's no reason to think that a year from now, the Gophers won't be sliding around on another poorly maintained field.

4. Syracuse prepared to stop the run and was fairly successful in that effort.

As good as Ibrahim was, his 71 yards did not come easy. Especially after he got off to a good start, Syracuse began bringing down extra defenders, tightening the space around the line of scrimmage and forcing Ibrahim to either make someone miss or fight through contact.

Fortunately, that is his specialty, but it is nevertheless a difficult position for a running back. The Gophers' other tailbacks, Trey Potts and Bryce Williams, averaged just 3.0 yards per carry, with Potts being stuffed on three of his nine attempts. When the most exceptional runner in program history wasn't in the game — which he wasn't for the entire second half — Minnesota couldn't get a consistent ground game going. And even when Ibrahim was in the game, the Orange prevented him from breaking into the open field. One of the least explosion-prone defenses in America put a lid on the Gophers' rushing attack.

You can find explanations for each stat here.
line yards and success rate are via
collegefootballdata.com.

5. Daniel Jackson closed his best college season with two big plays.

Jackson missed the first two games of the year because of a preseason injury, but with time he established himself as Minnesota's best receiver without Chris Autman-Bell. Only Brevyn Spann-Ford finished with more catches or targets, and no one had more yards or touchdowns. It was vital that someone in the receiving corps took a step forward. While Jackson had established a decent level in his first two season, 2022 was the year he showed he could be something more.

Against the Orange, Jackson had four receptions for 73 yards and two touchdowns. The first score was a true beauty, with Jackson securing the catch while fending off Jason Simmons Jr. on a slot fade:

Jackson has been asked to play a multiple roles since getting to Minneapolis. He's been a jump-ball target on the outside, and last year he was the team's go-to slot receiver. He had to pick up a lot of his yards after the catch, something he showed on this tunnel screen that he still knows how to do:

Syracuse did Jackson something of a favor with their tackling here.

The arrivals of two transfer receivers, as well as Autman-Bell and Spann-Ford's returns, mean Minnesota will have plenty of experienced pass-catchers in 2023. Even if the Gophers expand their receiving rotation for once, Jackson figures to be one of the offense's key pieces and could find an even higher ceiling.

6. Minnesota's two quarterbacks combined to be good enough. 

I predicted in November that when Tanner Morgan was healthy, he'd step back into the lineup. The coaches' admiration for his experience and leadership, as well as how up-and-down Athan Kaliakmanis had been in his stead, made it seem like the most likely course.

Then the Wisconsin game happened. Not that Kaliakmanis hadn't flashed plenty of talent before. His big arm and mobility are two traits that Morgan just doesn't possess, and the redshirt freshman had already shown uncommon poise for his age. Kaliakmanis' performance was just so good that it became clear that he was the quarterback who gave the Gophers the best chance to win.

That said, in a bowl game, there are considerations other than winning at play. The Gophers let Daniel Faalele score a touchdown in the Cactus Bowl a year ago, and Brock Annexstad ran a fake extra point to convert the ensuing 2-point conversion. It's not that neither decision had tactical value, but letting the 380-pound tackle and the fifth-year reserve receiver score in their last games is what you do when you want to have fun. If Morgan started in the Pinstripe Bowl — hardly a marquee game — it would have been understandable. Even deserved, considering his place in modern Gophers history.

But Kaliakmanis started instead. He again put his uncommon arm talent to use.

But only for a short while. He took a bad hit to the legs and left the game. Fleck said postgame that if Kaliakmanis suffered the same injury during the season, he would be out for weeks. Instead, he'll have a whole offseason to recuperate.

In stepped Morgan. His most impressive throw we already went over, the corner touchdown to Jackson. His only other pass beyond 5 yards was on target to Dylan Wright deep down the sideline, but Wright slipped. The bizarre second half meant Morgan didn't have a lot to do. Minnesota spent the whole fourth quarter trying to kill clock.

How many times do you see someone throw two touchdowns with 22 Air Yards?

It was a low-key final appearance for Morgan. He's faced a lot of criticism since the 2019 breakthrough season but handled it as well as he could in the dozens of press conferences he had as the Gophers' quarterback. Ultimately, Morgan has done a fine job and represented the U of M well in his five years as one of the school's most public figures. His final game offered no poetry or iconic moment, but he deserved to end his career as a winner.

7. Minnesota had major issues defending the run.

This was an uncharacteristic day for Joe Rossi's defense. The last time Minnesota allowed a rushing success rate over 60 percent was during the shortened and strange 2020 pandemic season, in a loss to Iowa.

It wasn't all bad. On a few occasions, the defensive line held their ground and kept the linebackers clean to make plays. Cody Lindenberg had a mostly strong performance against the run before his third-quarter injury. (His work in coverage was iffy.)

As a whole, though, Minnesota suffered from poorly or slowly fitted runs and missed reads. Some of this was because of Green and Bryson, the two freshmen holding down positions in the secondary. But even Sori-Marin had problems at times. See this run by Allen, where the fifth-year linebacker takes too long to pick up who took the ball at the mesh point, and then three Gophers missed their tackles.

Shrader is not the best runner, but he did a good enough a job at it to create some problems. Playcaller Jason Beck gave Shrader a few draws, which the Gophers had difficulty defending.

Minnesota rarely burst open but still gave up some sizable chunks of yardage on the ground. It was the worst the run defense has looked since 2020; stopping the run is the thing the Gophers are supposed to be good at. If it were more than a bowl game where some key players were missing, it would be reason for concern. But it was just a bowl game where some key players were missing, so it's not too much of a worry. It was an underwhelming day in circumstances atypical to the regular season.

8. This game gave something of a preview of the Gophers' 2023 secondary.

With Michael Dixon transferring and Tyler Nubin sitting out, we got an extended look at Green and Bryson in the lineup. Green, who arrived as a safety, slid down to nickel for the Wisconsin game and mostly stayed there against Syracuse. It's a good fit for him. The position demands physicality, and what we know about Green from his high school highlights is that he is an aggressive tackler. He had some misses against the Orange and in general was not the best player on the field, but Pro Football Focus credited him with just 3 yards allowed on five targets in coverage. He made a 4th down stop in the second quarter to end a Syracuse scoring threat.

Syracuse scored just 20 points from seven trips inside the Minnesota 40. Seems bad!

Bryson comes from a similar mold as Green — i.e., an athletic heavy hitter. Bryson played around the box plenty in high school, but the Gophers have seemingly kept him as a deep safety with Dixon's departure opening up the slot. He wasn't Nubin, but he was active: 7.0 tackles (all solo), a pass breakup, and that pick-six were enough for him to take home Pinstripe Bowl MVP honors. Bryson definitely has a nose for the ball, which is a necessity for a Minnesota safety.

It's uncertain whether both of Green and Bryson will stick in the lineup next year, though, with the arrival of Southeastern Louisiana transfer Jack Henderson. Henderson will probably compete for snaps at nickel, if not take the starting job outright. Perhaps Green starts alongside Nubin at safety in 2023, with Bryson stepping in in 2024. Or maybe Henderson sees a more sporadic role like Ryan Stapp, another FCS addition, did this season. The competition is one to monitor in the spring.

9. Minnesota says farewell to a group of seniors who left a great mark on the program.

We've spoken plenty about Ibrahim and Morgan, but they are far from the only relevant Gophers whose college careers are now over. Here are thoughts on the starters who are leaving.

Matthew Trickett converted 42 of his 42 extra point attempts in 2022, and he only missed three of his 18 field goal tries. His first season in Minneapolis was slightly disappointing after his great tenure at Kent State, but he was bound to show his quality again with more opportunities. Trickett gave the team solidity at kicker, something that did not exist before his arrival.

Thomas Rush couldn't replicate last year's success as a pass rusher but did the other parts of his job well, earning solid run defense and coverage grades from PFF. It's hard to switch positions and succeed, but Rush (moving from linebacker) did it.

In his first four seasons, Terell Smith went from a first-year starter to injured to a reserve player to regaining his starting job to losing it to a true freshman. It was an up-and-down career, but Smith stuck around and closed his time in maroon and gold with his best season. He stepped up at a position of concern, comfortably leading the team in havoc plays. Smith won't go down in any record books, but "T-Time" ultimately left a great final impression.

I can't speak to the leadership and on-field coordination skills that Fleck and others highlight so frequently, but I can say that Mariano Sori-Marin wound up a dependable, invaluable member of Minnesota's defense. He took a huge step forward in the back stretch of the 2020 season and kept that going through the end of his college career. Though his lack of speed means he wouldn't have lasted in a more pass-happy conference, in Minnesota's league, in his role, Sori-Marin was the type and level of player the team needed. Like his predecessor, Thomas Barber, he will probably find his way onto Fleck's staff one day.

Jordan Howden walked on in 2018 but immediately had to step into the starting lineup after Antoine Winfield Jr. suffered a season-ending injury. He never left, eventually forming one of the Big Ten's best safety tandems with Nubin. He also made the game-sealing interception in the program's biggest win of the 21st century, the 31-26 upset of Penn State. Even if he hadn't followed that up with a great Gophers career, that play ensured his place in program lore forever.

Chuck Filaiaga spent one season as a Gopher but served a vital role, stepping into an offensive line in transition and keeping the right guard position stable after Blaise Andries' departure. He did a solid job, making the coaches' all-conference third team.

Axel Ruschmeyer joined the program as a walk-on from Hutchinson, and he leaves with third-team All-Big Ten honors. In his debut season as a starter, in 2020, he was the weak point on the offensive line, but he developed into a reliable player who didn't make many mistakes.

John Michael Schmitz fell short of winning the Rimington but split most conference and All-American honors with Michigan's Olusegun Oluwatimi; the two will be the first two centers picked in April's NFL Draft. He leaves the U of M as the best, most decorated Gophers offensive lineman since Greg Eslinger.

This was a significant senior class, and it doesn't end with those listed above. Minnesotans Josh Aune, Preston Jelen, and Clay Geary all had their own big moments; long snapper Brady Weeks (who technically could come back for a fifth year) never made a mistake; and even sixth-year walk-on Samuel Pickerign got his first-ever snap against Syracuse.

This class leaves behind memories of great wins and agonizing what-ifs, but also the program's best period since the Glen Mason era. With how long so many of them stuck around and what moments they were a part of, it will be impossible to ever forget them.

10. The Gophers head into 2023 with a mixture of optimism and uncertainty.

The 2022 season represents the end of a chapter: The final year for some of the most important players in the program's modern history, one last unsuccessful run at a Rose Bowl berth before the conference and Playoff expand in 2024. Kaliakmanis' emergence gives reason for excitement; the return of Chris Autman-Bell and the forthcoming influx of receivers makes it seem possible that the Gophers may finally open up their offense. Nubin's return means next year's defense won't face a serious reset.

But there is reason to worry. The 2023 schedule will be harder. Games against North Carolina, Michigan, and Ohio State pose major challenges. Nebraska and Iowa should be better by default, and Luke Fickell's Wisconsin could be anything. Like the other teams in the Big Ten West, Minnesota will probably find the conference harder to navigate once UCLA and USC join. The Gophers could find a new level with a talented young quarterback — just as the changes in the sport make their road tougher on an annual basis.

We will see in time whether this is the start of something better or as good as it gets.

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