2022 Gophers Season Preview

I remember well how it felt to attend the three most pivotal games of P.J. Fleck's tenure as Minnesota's head coach. Two were happy memories: reclaiming Paul Bunyan's Axe in Madison in 2018, holding on to beat Penn State in front of a sellout crowd in 2019. These moments will be cherished as long as there is Gopher football.

The other game was less positive, but I feel it is the most important. For a while before that triumphant, cathartic win over Wisconsin in 2018, the Gophers were struggling. The pieces of the offense that would lead the way to an 11-2 season were in place. Young but super-sized linemen, exciting receivers, and a balding redshirt freshman quarterback were showing signs of life as a unit, even while missing veteran running backs Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks.

The other side of the ball was a wreck. Over a 1-4 stretch to open Big Ten play, Minnesota allowed 40.8 points per game. Opposing ballcarriers routinely tore right into the third level and beyond. What disruptiveness existed was negated by the Gophers' inability to prevent big plays.

The breaking point came on a trip to Champaign. Illinois ran for an obscene 435 yards on 33 carries. Three times, the Illini scored on runs of 72 yards or more. They also threw touchdowns of 67 and 30 yards. While the Gophers made a few dents, it wasn't enough to escape a 55-31 defeat.

After the game, Fleck fired defensive coordinator Robb Smith. In stepped Joe Rossi, a yinzer among a gaggle of Northeasterners joining Minnesota's staff in 2017, first as an analyst, then as defensive line coach, and then as the interim coordinator in Smith's stead.

Rossi immediately settled the defense. The Gophers routed Purdue, dropped a game to Northwestern, and beat Wisconsin while allowing an average of 16.3 points. Rossi became the permanent coordinator in the locker room at Camp Randall Stadium. From there, Minnesota won the Motor City Bowl, fielded a good enough defense to have that brilliant 2019 season, and (after a pandemic-forced setback) fielded one of the nation's best run defenses in 2021. None of that was possible if Fleck hadn't made a necessary change at defensive coordinator before the problem derailed the program entirely.

Fleck enters his sixth season in charge of the Gophers. He's one of seven head coaches hired ahead of the 2017 season to be in the same position without interruption; the other 16 have left for other jobs, been fired, or retired. Most coaches don't last this long, and the buyout structure put in place with his most recent extension means he's unlikely to go anywhere until at least the end of the 2024 season. His Gophers tenure, barring any surprises, counts as a success. The greatest danger to his job security is staleness.

Re-hiring Kirk Ciarrocca as the team's offensive coordinator, replacing Mike Sanford Jr., could provide a needed change. The Minnesota offense added some creative wrinkles under Sanford but became one-dimensional and predictable. Firing him the day after Fleck's second win over Wisconsin signals that the head coach knows the approach needs to change. Bringing back an old friend suggests he's more interested in a refresh than an overhaul. Whether that is enough could be the difference between winning the Big Ten West and finishing in the division's middle.

For Fleck to break through to Indianapolis, his philosophy must evolve. That will keep the Gophers from stagnating as they enter an uncertain, potentially tumultuous time to be at a program of Minnesota's stature. And it will improve the odds that he makes it another five years as coach.

2022 Gophers Position Previews: Special Teams

The sixth season of the P.J. Fleck era at Minnesota begins Sept. 1 against Jerry Kill's New Mexico State. Ski-U-Blog will have previews of the Gophers' notable players in each position group. We've reached the last post in this series, which means it's time to sort out the specialists.

Likely Starters

Minnesota punts too much. Most teams do. But having a good punter is a legitimate asset, one that Minnesota was decidedly missing in 2020.

Then-true freshman Mark Crawford, one of a few specialists who missed the start of the season for reasons strongly suggested by P.J. Fleck to be COVID-related, was flat-out poor. If Crawford had punted often enough to qualify, he would have ranked 116th in the country in yards per punt. According to Pro Football Focus' stats, Crawford didn't make up for that with a good hang time, either: There were 98 FBS punters with at least as many attempts as him who posted better average hang times. He had to improve considerably in his second season.

Fortunately for the Gophers, he did. By simple distance, Crawford was roughly 4 yards better per attempt. That only brought him up to a very average 41.7 yards per attempt, but he didn't sacrifice any hang time for that improvement. He also exhibited excellent placement. Crawford produced just one touchback all season and was one of the nation's best at putting the ball within the 20-yard line:

Data via Pro Football Focus

While Crawford is not a field-flipping, elite punting weapon, he has shown he can do the job at a high level. He's made punter a position of security for the Gophers.

2022 Gophers Position Previews: Secondary

The sixth season of the P.J. Fleck era at Minnesota begins Sept. 1 against Jerry Kill's New Mexico State. Ski-U-Blog will have previews of the Gophers' notable players in each position group. Our last stop on defense is the secondary.

Likely Starters

When you're a true freshman playing cornerback, you're going to get picked on a lot. Justin Walley got that experience in full. On four separate occasions, opponents threw his way at least five times, according to Pro Football Focus. The average depth of his targets was the second-longest (17.8 yards) among Big Ten corners with at least 200 coverage snaps. They went after him often, and they put him in spots to make especially costly mistakes.

The lows and high often came together, like how he allowed a touchdown to Milton Wright but later denied Wright a big reception:

Or how Walley was twice flagged against Wisconsin but made his first career interception in the third quarter:

Walley often made those tough situations work out. He was one of the brightest freshmen in the conference. He broke up seven passes, allowed a low completion percentage, and tackled well in space. The positives came with freshman mistakes, but the Gophers are counting on that getting ironed out in time. For now, they should be excited about the budding star they have.

2022 Gophers Position Previews: Linebackers

The sixth season of the P.J. Fleck era at Minnesota begins Sept. 1 against Jerry Kill's New Mexico State. Ski-U-Blog will have previews of the Gophers' notable players in each position group. This edition of the preview series concerns the linebackers.

Likely Starters

After the first few games of the 2020 season, it might have been difficult to conceive of Mariano Sori-Marin becoming one of the Gophers' most valuable defenders, and that being a good thing. He looked totally lost until the team went on a COVID-forced hiatus in November. When he came back, Sori-Marin was a sharper, more decisive, altogether more polished linebacker.

With Jack Gibbens next to him in 2021, Sori-Marin continued that progress and was part of one of the conference's most reliable linebacker duos. The two led the team in tackles (73.0 for Gibbens, 64.0 for Sori-Marin) and in non-sack tackles for loss (4.5 and 5.0, respectively). Sori-Marin, for his part, tied Boye Mafe for the most havoc plays on the team (11.0).

To add on to the steps he took as a run defender near the end of the previous season, Sori-Marin became an adequate coverage linebacker. He broke up three passes and intercepted one, and per Pro Football Focus, he allowed just 7.0 yards per catch.

Overall, Gibbens was the better linebacker of the two, but Sori-Marin was a solid starter whose position is in zero doubt entering his final season at the U of M. At this point, he's not an NFL prospect but could make his case if he finds another gear.

We Are Maroon and Gold Episode 203

A two-pack of Gophers preview questions this week: First, What game or stretch of games will be the most pivotal? Plus: Who are some potential breakout players? We also run through the Week 0 slate of games.

Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

2022 Gophers Position Previews: Defensive Line

The sixth season of the P.J. Fleck era at Minnesota begins Sept. 1 against Jerry Kill's New Mexico State. Ski-U-Blog will have previews of the Gophers' notable players in each position group. We now move to the defense, starting with a deep but somewhat unproven front four.

Likely Starters

In a case of nominative determinism, Minnesota's starting rush end will be none other than Thomas Rush. Rush had a solid season last year, becoming one of the defense's most productive players: 25.0 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss (5.0 sacks), and a couple pass breakups. Always a competent run defender and capable of dropping into coverage every once in a while, Rush finally made an impact in the backfield.

As with any surprise success, it's fair to ask whether Rush is due for some regression in 2021. Using Pro Football Focus' numbers, we can see that the average FBS edge rusher last year recorded a pressure on roughly 9 percent of all pass rush snaps, and on 14 percent of snaps against what PFF calls a true pass set. Here is where Rush placed among the 458 edge rushers who had at least 80 pass rush snaps last year, with Boye Mafe and Esezi Otomewo included for comparison:

Click to enlarge.

As you can see, a look at his pressure rate confirms that Rush was decent at rushing the passer last year. He was just outside the top quarter of FBS in that statistic, whether we're talking about all pass rush snaps or just against true pass sets. Mafe was near the top of the nation, and Otomewo — who had a more run-conscious role as the 5-technique defensive end — was closer to the middle.

2022 Gophers Position Previews: Offensive Line

The sixth season of the P.J. Fleck era at Minnesota begins Sept. 1 against Jerry Kill's New Mexico State. Ski-U-Blog will have previews of the Gophers' notable players in each position group. We close our discussion of the offense with the line.

Likely Starters

We'll start with the easy stuff.

John Michael Schmitz, the lone returning starter from 2021, is one of the best linemen in college football, and he's the right kind of lineman for Minnesota's zone-heavy scheme. As discussed last year, a typical Minnesota offensive lineman under P.J. Fleck and position coach Brian Callahan has been significantly heavier than the average college lineman. But the Gophers have run zone effectively because those giants get a good first step off the snap of scrimmage and move well laterally. Being able to reach a defender's outside shoulder and force him away from the play is crucial.

Recent Gophers linemen have been able to do that with regularity, and that has included Schmitz. He has a strong base and active feet, two traits that allow him to gain leverage on opposing players and open holes.

To see more of Schmitz's power and footwork, watch the following play. He got popped by Leo Chenal at the snap, but Schmitz kept his balance and drove Chenal downfield into a pancake. Chenal got good penetration but didn't blow up the play because Schmitz held his ground and recovered so well; what forced Mar'Keise Irving to reverse field was unrelated.

Though Schmitz makes his mark as a run blocker more often, he's also an effective pass protector. Pro Football Focus credits him with allowing a pressure on just 2.0 percent of opportunities to do so, as well as zero sacks, over his whole college career.

If Schmitz can win the Rimington Trophy as the nation's top center, he'd be the second Gopher to do so, following Greg Eslinger in 2005. Five of the last seven winners were selected in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft, including Iowa's Tyler Linderbaum most recently. It's uncertain whether he'll go that high, but it seems like a lock that Schmitz will follow Daniel Faalele into the NFL.

2022 Gophers Position Previews: Quarterbacks

The sixth season of the P.J. Fleck era at Minnesota begins Sept. 1 against Jerry Kill's New Mexico State. Ski-U-Blog will have previews of the Gophers' notable players in each position group. Today, we move on to quarterback.

Likely Starter

For better or worse, Tanner Morgan is still here. Since flipping from Western Michigan the day that Minnesota officially hired P.J. Fleck, Morgan's hair has migrated from the top of his head to around his jawline, and all but three other members of that 2017 recruiting class have moved on from the U of M. No other Big Ten starting quarterback from 2018 is still where they were then. Morgan has beaten Wisconsin twice, lost to Iowa four times, and never missed a start since a weird Friday night victory over Indiana in 2018. By the end of the year, he can take over for Adam Weber as the program's record holder in career yards and touchdowns.

The fact that Morgan is using his sixth season of eligibility is as clear an indication as any that he probably won't play a down in the NFL. To even have a chance, he'll need to make up for or fix his flaws, and bounce back from a pair of disappointing seasons.

It will forever be uncertain how much of Morgan's steps backwards can be attributed to since-fired co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Mike Sanford Jr. The Gophers' offense under Sanford was, compared to under Kirk Ciarrocca, essentially the same car with a few new parts and a faulty engine. An optimistic view of Ciarrocca's return says that Morgan will regain some of his old form, but the truth of a soon-to-be-fifth-year starting quarterback is that he probably is what he is.

What Minnesota needs Morgan to be is a calm hand who executes the Ciarrocca offense's simple reads, takes care of the ball, and every so often makes a big-time throw. In 2019, with two elite receivers, he showed he could do that. The last two years, Morgan has not been universally bad, but he has tried to force more and more balls into windows he can't, never quite learned to look off a defender, looked away from open receivers, and never remedied the inconsistent accuracy that Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson often bailed out. Morgan threw a career-high nine interceptions last year, and played some of his worst games as a Gopher.

As I've done each of the last two preseasons, it's time to look at the data behind Morgan's frustrating 2021 season.

Click on any image in this post to enlarge it.

2022 Gophers Position Previews: Running Backs

The sixth season of the P.J. Fleck era at Minnesota begins Sept. 1 against Jerry Kill's New Mexico State. Ski-U-Blog will have previews of the Gophers' notable players in each position group. Today's post covers Minnesota's running backs.

Likely Starter

I, for one, did not think Mohamed Ibrahim would ever play for the Gophers again.

His season-ending injury in the 2021 opener was truly cruel. To be poised for a big season and a professional career, to be in the position to set program records on his way out, and to make a mark on network television against one of the nation's top teams, only to hobble off the field and into a medical tent is not what anyone deserves.

Ibrahim could have declared for the draft. His age, his height, his speed, and now his injury would all be held against him, but his body of work might have been enough to be picked in the late stages. As a running back, it's crucial to start receiving NFL checks as soon as possible.

However, the day before Thanksgiving, Ibrahim announced that he would return for a sixth season.

pic.twitter.com/Ch8vVxNUaa

— Mohamed Ibrahim (@_MoIbrahim) November 24, 2021

We Are Maroon and Gold Episode 202

Continuing our Gopher football preview with our second preseason question: Philosophically, what improvements need to occur?

Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

2022 Gophers Position Previews: Receivers and Tight Ends

The sixth season of the P.J. Fleck era at Minnesota begins Sept. 1 against Jerry Kill's New Mexico State. Ski-U-Blog will have previews of the Gophers' notable players in each position group. As in 2021, this series begins with the receivers and tight ends.

Likely Starters

At the college level, a supposed "50-50" ball is not actually that. It's a good bit more titled in the defensive back's direction. Over the last three years, according to Pro Football Focus, the national contested catch rate has sat at about 44 percent. If you take out running backs, tight ends, and anyone who isn't specifically a wide receiver, that rate does not improve. A receiver who can even make a jump ball a real 50-50 proposition is a real weapon.

Chris Autman-Bell, entering his sixth season in the program, is one of those weapons. Since 2020, Autman-Bell has succeeded on two-thirds of his contested catch opportunities. Only one returning FBS receiver with at least 20 contested targets — Thayer Thomas of NC State, at 70 percent — has been better over the last two years.

Despite missing time due to a preseason injury, Autman-Bell was the Gophers' leader in targets, catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. After stints as a short-game receiver and as a deep threat, Autman-Bell stayed closer to the latter but was considered a top option at all levels of the field.

Autman-Bell has yet to earn more than an honorable mention for an all-conference team but should have the ability to do better if able to play a whole season. While lacking elite speed, he has shown often enough he can be more than just a long-armed jump ball target on the outside. His PFF grade last year was 6th among Big Ten receivers who are coming back for 2022. He'll be hoping a big year brings both accolades and a late-round selection in the NFL Draft next April.

We Are Maroon and Gold Episode 201

Beginning our Gopher football preview with our first preseason question: Which position or position group most needs to improve for 2022 to be a successful year?

Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Can a Good Season Lead to a Short-term Recruiting "Bump"? (Part II)

Bobby Petrino has a knack for making his exits noteworthy. He signed a 10-year contract with Louisville and left for the Atlanta Falcons five months later. After a terrible start to his time with the Falcons, he decided he'd had enough, posted laminated farewells to all the players in the locker room, and left for Arkansas. He had a good tenure with the Razorbacks but lied to his bosses about an affair with a staffer, which only came out because he crashed his motorcycle. The lasting image of not just the scandal, but Petrino's Arkansas tenure, is the neck brace he wore to a press conference after the crash.

Petrino's lone year at Western Kentucky was far more mundane, unfortunately. He got in, he won eight games to show he still had it, and he got out. And for a while, it seemed like his second crack at the Louisville job was going to be just fine: He won 34 games in four years. As part of an exceptional 2016 season for the Cardinals, Lamar Jackson won the Heisman. It was all going smoothly.

And then Petrino just gave up. In 2018, Louisville lost eight games by 21 points or more, finishing winless against ACC opponents. Petrino didn't see the end of the season, as the school decided after allowing 77 points to Clemson that it was worth paying Petrino's ludicrous $14 million buyout. The news broke of his firing while his pre-taped weekly television show was on.

The scroll of Bobby Petrino being fired came across during the airing of his Coaches’ show pic.twitter.com/lAWShlWwSV

— Matt Jones (@KySportsRadio) November 11, 2018

Missouri State is Petrino's current home. Unfortunately, since it's an FCS program that was so willing to the Bobby Petrino experience that they hired him, I don't expect we'll see another high-profile, extravagant flameout.

But I want to focus on that last season with Louisville. It's hard to find a more immediate or steep collapse in the last decade than Petrino's 2018. Unsurprisingly, the school took a major step back in recruiting. After averaging roughly the 34th-best class in the country over the previous four years, Louisville fell to 70th in the 2019 recruiting rankings.

In the first part of this study, we finished by establishing a positive relationship between a team's single-season winning percentage and how good their recruiting class is both that year and the following year. It wasn't very strong, but it appeared to be there.

What I want to do this time is look specifically at the extreme ends of the spectra of winning and recruiting, though — still excluding Group of Five and Blue Chip Ratio schools, and still sticking to the Playoff era, but trying to find the seasons and classes that really stick out within our population.