2019 to Date
2019 was a characteristic season for Auburn: a couple of dramatic wins over Oregon and Alabama and losses to three of the best teams in the country. The Tigers mixed in some pretty good wins on their way to a 9-3 record and a third-place finish in the SEC West. Head coach Gus Malzahn has now won eight or more games six times in seven seasons and beaten Alabama three times.
Auburn lived up to its reputation as a force of chaos in one particular way. In 12 games, the Tigers and their opponents combined for 45 fumbles, or an average of 3.75 per game. On average, Auburn games go 36.2 plays (minus kneeldowns) between fumbles; Minnesota games go 44.2 plays between fumbles. The Auburn defense forced 15 fumbles, tied for the eighth-most in FBS, and the Tigers themselves fumbled 23 times, tied for the fifth-most. (The other seven fumbles were unforced and by their opponents.)
There's a good chance the ball will be on the grass frequently on Wednesday, which could tilt the game in one direction. Good luck could level the playing field for the less talented Gophers, or bad luck could push the game out of reach before they have a chance. Fleck says the ball is the program, but the ball isn't loyal to anyone.
Auburn lived up to its reputation as a force of chaos in one particular way. In 12 games, the Tigers and their opponents combined for 45 fumbles, or an average of 3.75 per game. On average, Auburn games go 36.2 plays (minus kneeldowns) between fumbles; Minnesota games go 44.2 plays between fumbles. The Auburn defense forced 15 fumbles, tied for the eighth-most in FBS, and the Tigers themselves fumbled 23 times, tied for the fifth-most. (The other seven fumbles were unforced and by their opponents.)
There's a good chance the ball will be on the grass frequently on Wednesday, which could tilt the game in one direction. Good luck could level the playing field for the less talented Gophers, or bad luck could push the game out of reach before they have a chance. Fleck says the ball is the program, but the ball isn't loyal to anyone.
Offense
This was Auburn's first offensive snap of 2019.
The Tigers opened the season with a Statue of Liberty. Though it only gained 2 yards, it was a proper reintroduction for Malzahn as the play caller after giving the job to his coordinators for the previous three years, excluding last year's bowl game against Purdue.
Malzahn is one of the sport's most imaginative offensive minds, helping bring run-pass options into vogue and being unafraid to use trick plays. His offense is a circus of cascading deceptions, from motions and shifts, to odd packages and formations, to fakes stacked upon fakes. It is often tremendously entertaining, and its wrinkles can befuddle even the best opponents, like at the end of the Iron Bowl.
If there's one thing nearly certain about Auburn, it's that the formation you see initially is not the formation the offense will be in when the ball is snapped. There is a shift or motion on nearly every play. It's often something as small as moving from the pistol (which the Tigers never actually use as a final formation) to the shotgun:
But it can be an entire restructuring of the offense, like switching out of the Wildcat and going quads right:
There are also plenty of jet sweeps and fly sweeps, as well as plays off of that action:
A lot of times, the motions and shifts a defense sees are to call back to a concept it saw earlier in the game, only for the Tigers to do something else. Take this pass off of a Statue of Liberty action, which was a follow-up to the season-opening run highlighted earlier:
Or the time quarterback Bo Nix went under center to sneak against LSU...
...and then later went under center for a throwback to tight end John Samuel Shenker:
Showing certain elements to set up plays later in a game is not a new concept or anything, but Malzahn does it in interesting ways that must routinely confuse defenders.
The creativity doesn't stop there. I love this draw meant to look like a rollout to the left:
Of course, Malzahn still likes his RPO's:
There's also the occasional reverse to Anthony Schwartz, one of the nation's fastest players:
The Tigers opened the season with a Statue of Liberty. Though it only gained 2 yards, it was a proper reintroduction for Malzahn as the play caller after giving the job to his coordinators for the previous three years, excluding last year's bowl game against Purdue.
Malzahn is one of the sport's most imaginative offensive minds, helping bring run-pass options into vogue and being unafraid to use trick plays. His offense is a circus of cascading deceptions, from motions and shifts, to odd packages and formations, to fakes stacked upon fakes. It is often tremendously entertaining, and its wrinkles can befuddle even the best opponents, like at the end of the Iron Bowl.
.@CoachGusMalzahn explains drawing an illegal substitution on Alabama at the end of the game to clinch the #IronBowl #WarEagle pic.twitter.com/Ag1prlmaZa— Scott Carpenter (@ScottCarpTV) December 1, 2019
If there's one thing nearly certain about Auburn, it's that the formation you see initially is not the formation the offense will be in when the ball is snapped. There is a shift or motion on nearly every play. It's often something as small as moving from the pistol (which the Tigers never actually use as a final formation) to the shotgun:
But it can be an entire restructuring of the offense, like switching out of the Wildcat and going quads right:
A lot of times, the motions and shifts a defense sees are to call back to a concept it saw earlier in the game, only for the Tigers to do something else. Take this pass off of a Statue of Liberty action, which was a follow-up to the season-opening run highlighted earlier:
Or the time quarterback Bo Nix went under center to sneak against LSU...
...and then later went under center for a throwback to tight end John Samuel Shenker:
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| Note that they also tacked on a jet motion to help clear out the left side for Shenker. |
Showing certain elements to set up plays later in a game is not a new concept or anything, but Malzahn does it in interesting ways that must routinely confuse defenders.
The creativity doesn't stop there. I love this draw meant to look like a rollout to the left:
Of course, Malzahn still likes his RPO's:
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| Look familiar? |
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| The passer here, Joey Gatewood, is transferring to Kentucky, but this backup quarterback package likely still exists in the playbook. |
There's also the occasional reverse to Anthony Schwartz, one of the nation's fastest players:
If there's a weakness in such elaborate play designs, it's that they can take so long that an unblocked defender can have the time to blow them up easily.
Although the defender in the GIF above wasn't a blitzer, blitzing might be a viable strategy against this offense — that is, until Malzahn pulls out the screen game, which takes on many different forms and is a prominent part of the system.
Plus, it's not like the Tigers don't have plenty of short pass plays, like slants and quick outs. They leaned heavily on the short game at times this season, like against Georgia.
Quick throws can be necessary when you have a true freshman quarterback. Nix often shows why he was the nation's top-ranked dual-threat quarterback last Signing Day, but it comes with mistakes you have to accept when you start a true freshman.
Nix runs plenty, both by design and by improvisation, and he's pretty good at it. He's averaging 4.9 yards per carry, excluding sacks, and he's scored seven rushing touchdowns.
Though Auburn doesn't go deep a lot, Nix is also capable of some very impressive throws.
The physical tools are definitely there, and he had a fine freshman year. It's just that he's not close to being a top quarterback yet because he's still learning. Nix can break from the pocket unnecessarily, failing to notice that he has room to step up. He often follows that up by throwing off-balance for an incompletion, as he seems to think he is more accurate on the run than he is.
It's a bad habit that he can hopefully address with time. He runs read option well, he avoids sacks, and he doesn't try a ton of reckless throws, but he has to improve his pocket presence.
There are usually a couple of players in the backfield with Nix. Depending on how you classify certain players, the Tigers are almost always in 11 or 20 personnel.
The player in the slot on the 10-yard-line is Spencer Nigh, who is the only player on the roster listed as a fullback (despite wearing No. 99). Four others are tight ends, although only Shenker counts as a regular. There is officially one H-back, Jay Jay Wilson, but Harold Joiner is on the depth chart as both a running back and H-back option.
These four players are all listed under "TE/HB" on the depth chart, which shows that they all play similar roles. Their primary purpose is to block. That said, their specific uses are not totally analogous. Only Joiner has a carry this season. Wilson leads the pack with 20 receiving targets; Nigh has the fewest with just 1.
In short-yardage situations, two of them will often be on the field at once:
And on passing downs (or for many neutral situations against Texas A&M), they'll all be on the sideline, with the offense in 10 personnel.
From time to time, Nix takes the snap from an empty backfield, but a running back is still is on the field, usually as an inside receiver.
Four running backs — JaTarvious Whitlow, D.J. Williams, Kam Martin, and Shaun Shivers — get carries, and all average between 5.0 and 5.5 yards per attempt. Whitlow is the first-choice back, however, receiving the most carries (147) and targets (13) this season. He is also the team's preferred Wildcat quarterback.
The Auburn rushing game isn't bad or anything, but its numbers are unimpressive. The Tigers' Stuff Rate allowed is the 15th-lowest in FBS, indicating that they don't have many negative plays. But their Adjusted Line Yards and Opportunity Rate are just the 51st- and 65th-highest, putting their run blocking right in the middle of the subdivision. The running backs they have are just fine and can break off a big run once in a while, but they don't consistently show explosiveness.
Seth Williams is Nix's favorite receiver, with nearly twice as many targets as second-choice Eli Stove. Williams, with his 6-foot-3-inch frame, is the deep threat, and Stove and Schwartz are more short-range options. This shows up in the stats:
Williams has the most yards per completion and touchdown catches, but his catch rate is the lowest because Nix targets him on many of his toughest throws. He can justify those throws, too:
Stove and Schwartz get the ball on shorter throws and a lot of fly sweeps, so their stats are rather unremarkable despite their speed. (They've combined for 175 rushing yards and three touchdowns on just 18 carries this season.) They're most commonly used on plays like these:
Senior Will Hastings and 6-foot-7-inch former tight end Sal Cannella are another couple of wideouts who play a significant enough role to mention. Neither are that dangerous, however. Hastings made a far greater impact before he tore his ACL and missed the 2018 season; in 2017, eventual New York Giant Darius Slayton was the only Tiger who averaged more yards per catch (22.2) than Hastings (20.2). Hastings was third on the team in receiving yards and touchdowns, too. Cannella, meanwhile, owns a career catch rate of 44.4 percent.
When you put it all together, you get an offense that's a lot of fun to watch and pretty decent, but held back by a young quarterback, average blocking, and a lack of big playmakers. The Tigers rank average 6.9 yards per pass (significantly below the national average) and 5.5 per rush (not much above the national average). Adjust for opponent, Auburn has something like the 30th- to 40th-best offense in the country, according to advanced metric systems. The Gophers need to play intelligently against Malzahn's ornate designs, and they don't have the Tigers' raw talent, but they don't face an insurmountable task.
Although the defender in the GIF above wasn't a blitzer, blitzing might be a viable strategy against this offense — that is, until Malzahn pulls out the screen game, which takes on many different forms and is a prominent part of the system.
Plus, it's not like the Tigers don't have plenty of short pass plays, like slants and quick outs. They leaned heavily on the short game at times this season, like against Georgia.
Quick throws can be necessary when you have a true freshman quarterback. Nix often shows why he was the nation's top-ranked dual-threat quarterback last Signing Day, but it comes with mistakes you have to accept when you start a true freshman.
Nix runs plenty, both by design and by improvisation, and he's pretty good at it. He's averaging 4.9 yards per carry, excluding sacks, and he's scored seven rushing touchdowns.
Though Auburn doesn't go deep a lot, Nix is also capable of some very impressive throws.
The physical tools are definitely there, and he had a fine freshman year. It's just that he's not close to being a top quarterback yet because he's still learning. Nix can break from the pocket unnecessarily, failing to notice that he has room to step up. He often follows that up by throwing off-balance for an incompletion, as he seems to think he is more accurate on the run than he is.
It's a bad habit that he can hopefully address with time. He runs read option well, he avoids sacks, and he doesn't try a ton of reckless throws, but he has to improve his pocket presence.
There are usually a couple of players in the backfield with Nix. Depending on how you classify certain players, the Tigers are almost always in 11 or 20 personnel.
The player in the slot on the 10-yard-line is Spencer Nigh, who is the only player on the roster listed as a fullback (despite wearing No. 99). Four others are tight ends, although only Shenker counts as a regular. There is officially one H-back, Jay Jay Wilson, but Harold Joiner is on the depth chart as both a running back and H-back option.
These four players are all listed under "TE/HB" on the depth chart, which shows that they all play similar roles. Their primary purpose is to block. That said, their specific uses are not totally analogous. Only Joiner has a carry this season. Wilson leads the pack with 20 receiving targets; Nigh has the fewest with just 1.
In short-yardage situations, two of them will often be on the field at once:
And on passing downs (or for many neutral situations against Texas A&M), they'll all be on the sideline, with the offense in 10 personnel.
From time to time, Nix takes the snap from an empty backfield, but a running back is still is on the field, usually as an inside receiver.
Four running backs — JaTarvious Whitlow, D.J. Williams, Kam Martin, and Shaun Shivers — get carries, and all average between 5.0 and 5.5 yards per attempt. Whitlow is the first-choice back, however, receiving the most carries (147) and targets (13) this season. He is also the team's preferred Wildcat quarterback.
The Auburn rushing game isn't bad or anything, but its numbers are unimpressive. The Tigers' Stuff Rate allowed is the 15th-lowest in FBS, indicating that they don't have many negative plays. But their Adjusted Line Yards and Opportunity Rate are just the 51st- and 65th-highest, putting their run blocking right in the middle of the subdivision. The running backs they have are just fine and can break off a big run once in a while, but they don't consistently show explosiveness.
Seth Williams is Nix's favorite receiver, with nearly twice as many targets as second-choice Eli Stove. Williams, with his 6-foot-3-inch frame, is the deep threat, and Stove and Schwartz are more short-range options. This shows up in the stats:
Williams has the most yards per completion and touchdown catches, but his catch rate is the lowest because Nix targets him on many of his toughest throws. He can justify those throws, too:
Stove and Schwartz get the ball on shorter throws and a lot of fly sweeps, so their stats are rather unremarkable despite their speed. (They've combined for 175 rushing yards and three touchdowns on just 18 carries this season.) They're most commonly used on plays like these:
Senior Will Hastings and 6-foot-7-inch former tight end Sal Cannella are another couple of wideouts who play a significant enough role to mention. Neither are that dangerous, however. Hastings made a far greater impact before he tore his ACL and missed the 2018 season; in 2017, eventual New York Giant Darius Slayton was the only Tiger who averaged more yards per catch (22.2) than Hastings (20.2). Hastings was third on the team in receiving yards and touchdowns, too. Cannella, meanwhile, owns a career catch rate of 44.4 percent.
When you put it all together, you get an offense that's a lot of fun to watch and pretty decent, but held back by a young quarterback, average blocking, and a lack of big playmakers. The Tigers rank average 6.9 yards per pass (significantly below the national average) and 5.5 per rush (not much above the national average). Adjust for opponent, Auburn has something like the 30th- to 40th-best offense in the country, according to advanced metric systems. The Gophers need to play intelligently against Malzahn's ornate designs, and they don't have the Tigers' raw talent, but they don't face an insurmountable task.
Defense
Advanced metrics consider Auburn's defense one of the country's best: Massey ranks it sixth in FBS, SP+ fourth, and ESPN's Team Efficiency third. This unit is at least equal to Wisconsin and Penn State's defenses, if not better.
Only elite offenses have caused Auburn problems. Opponents have averaged 4.7 yards per play against the Tigers; just two teams (LSU and Alabama) have averaged 6.0 yards or more, and seven teams averaged fewer than 5.0 (including Oregon and Georgia). The three teams who averaged something between those figures: Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Florida, who combined to average 5.5 yards per play. An offense that put up a number like that over a full season would rank somewhere in the high 80s of FBS. Auburn has a habit of making good teams look pedestrian.
The star of the defense is the Tigers' 6-foot-5-inch, 318-pound senior tackle Derrick Brown. Brown ranks fourth on the team in tackles with 40, which is exceedingly hard to do at his position. He does it by being a bully.
Brown is bigger and stronger than almost everyone on the field, and the above GIF demonstrates it. He didn't affect the play at all; he just plowed right through the right guard and flattened the running back away from the ball after the play fake.
College offensive linemen cannot deal with Brown's bull rush.
A player this good is just so fun to watch.
The unanimous All-American looks like a game-wrecker on tape, and the numbers back it up: Brown is the team's leader in havoc plays, fueled mainly by his also team-leading 12.5 tackles for loss.
Brown, a certain first round pick in April's NFL Draft, could have skipped this game to avoid the risk of injury, but he chose not to do so. As such, the Gophers will have to deal with him.
Brown often plays the 3-technique on a four-man line, but he's versatile enough to serve as the 1-technique or an end, and he regularly plays those positions. Other Tigers in the box bounce around, too: Redshirt junior Nick Coe, for example, is listed as a backup to four different defensive starters, including at end. But it's worth noting that there are two kinds of ends in coordinator Kevin Steele's defense.
Only elite offenses have caused Auburn problems. Opponents have averaged 4.7 yards per play against the Tigers; just two teams (LSU and Alabama) have averaged 6.0 yards or more, and seven teams averaged fewer than 5.0 (including Oregon and Georgia). The three teams who averaged something between those figures: Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Florida, who combined to average 5.5 yards per play. An offense that put up a number like that over a full season would rank somewhere in the high 80s of FBS. Auburn has a habit of making good teams look pedestrian.
The star of the defense is the Tigers' 6-foot-5-inch, 318-pound senior tackle Derrick Brown. Brown ranks fourth on the team in tackles with 40, which is exceedingly hard to do at his position. He does it by being a bully.
Brown is bigger and stronger than almost everyone on the field, and the above GIF demonstrates it. He didn't affect the play at all; he just plowed right through the right guard and flattened the running back away from the ball after the play fake.
College offensive linemen cannot deal with Brown's bull rush.
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| Superhuman Act No. 1 |
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| Superhuman Act No. 2 |
A player this good is just so fun to watch.
The unanimous All-American looks like a game-wrecker on tape, and the numbers back it up: Brown is the team's leader in havoc plays, fueled mainly by his also team-leading 12.5 tackles for loss.
Brown, a certain first round pick in April's NFL Draft, could have skipped this game to avoid the risk of injury, but he chose not to do so. As such, the Gophers will have to deal with him.
Brown often plays the 3-technique on a four-man line, but he's versatile enough to serve as the 1-technique or an end, and he regularly plays those positions. Other Tigers in the box bounce around, too: Redshirt junior Nick Coe, for example, is listed as a backup to four different defensive starters, including at end. But it's worth noting that there are two kinds of ends in coordinator Kevin Steele's defense.
This is a typical look for the Tigers in nickel. As you can see, the ends are both in two-point stances, but they have different designations. One is officially known as an end, and the other is called the "Buck." The Buck plays something like the rush end in Minnesota's defense in that sometimes he'll drop into coverage, but he rushes the passer far more often than not. The end is sometimes in a three-point stance; the Buck is almost always standing presnap.
The starting end for the Tigers is Marlon Davidson, another senior with disruptive tendencies. His 6.5 sacks are the most on the team, and he is second behind Brown in havoc plays.
The Buck is Big Kat Bryant, who only has 10.5 tackles to his name but apparently has the most quarterback hurries of any Auburn defender (according to the A.U. website, that is — hurry totals are dubious and inconsistently tracked for college players). He's a talented player, even if he doesn't demand one's attention the way Brown and Davidson do.
The other starting tackle, Tyrone Truesdell, shouldn't be glossed over. Though his numbers aren't as impressive as those of his counterpart, Truesdell is a solid player. He didn't make the tackle on the following play, but you can see Truesdell drive All-American left guard Shane Lemieux (No. 68 for Oregon) into the backfield, which certainly made things harder for the Ducks.
With so many tough guys up front, Auburn's run defense is, naturally, strong, even if it isn't elite. The Auburn line's advanced stats are quite good: 18th in Adjusted Line Yards per Carry, 27th in Opportunity Rate, and 22nd in Stuff Rate. Previous opponents have been able to run efficiently or for big plays, but never both. Running the ball is not impossible, but it is hard to do.
The Tigers seldom play a 4-3, but that might change against Minnesota, depending on how often the Gophers play with unbalanced line (assuming they can; right tackle Daniel Faalele is a game-time decision) and use 12 personnel or the Wildcat. For the most part, they're in nickel, so the linebackers on the field are some two-man combination of K.J. Britt, Zakoby McClain, Owen Pappoe, and Chandler Wooten. The hard-hitting Britt is the biggest difference-maker among them, with 8.0 TFLs to his name. Here is one of them.
The Auburn secondary is an area of strength, although it's not without its weaknesses. The Tigers' corners have had some problems going one-on-one against talented wide receivers. Here, Noah Igbinoghene and Roger McCreary got beaten badly by LSU's Terrace Marshall Jr. and Ja'Marr Chase.
And with all the man coverage Steele calls for, opponents can sometimes hurt Auburn on slants and other quick throws over the middle.
In fairness, Chase just won the Biletnikoff Award, and the SEC attracts many of the best receivers in the country. And the Tigers have plenty of plays on film where they defended slants quite well. But Minnesota has two First-team All-Big Ten receivers in Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson, who frequently eat defensive backs alive on slants. Steele's man-heavy scheme might make for an ideal matchup for the Gophers.
That said, Auburn has a top-10 defense for a reason. Those cornerbacks may post a merely good 57.7 percent completion rate allowed, but they allow just 10.3 yards per completion, the third-smallest amount in FBS. The reason: They know how to tackle.
Missed tackles are seldom a problem for this team. And not only that — these defenders hit hard.
The Tigers' heavy hitting is a big reason why, as mentioned above, they force so many fumbles. Nine defenders have forced fumbles this season, and three have each forced two.
The Tigers' aggressiveness isn't restricted to their tackling. In man coverage, Auburn cornerbacks play tight, bumpy coverage that might get called pass interference more often in other conferences. The tactic can get them in trouble occasionally, but it helps prevent completions. Corners Igbinoghene, McCreary, and Javaris Davis, plus "Star" (nickelback) Christian Tutt, have combined for 28 passes defensed this season.
Steele also loves to blitz, often on passing downs. Auburn frequently shows it before the snap:
Safeties Jeremiah Dinson and Daniel Thomas, first and second on the team in tackles, respectively, are frequently among the blitzers. But you don't know until the play starts which players are coming — nor from where, nor when they'll enter the backfield. Overlapping rushes, delayed blitzes, and last-second presnap movement are all tools at the Tigers' disposal.
The Gophers have a redshirt sophomore quarterback and three underclassmen starting on the offensive line, plus another redshirt sophomore who enters the game on unbalanced sets. Relatively inexperienced players might have problems identifying and picking up blitzes. The short passing game could be more important to Minnesota's success in this game than it normally is.
Minnesota already was facing a challenge against a mean defense. Offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca's departure for Penn State doesn't help matters. Tanner Morgan will need to get rid of the ball quickly against Steele's arsenal of blitzes, and the receivers will need to put up yards after the catch against defensive backs that seldom allow them. The offensive line needs to double-team Brown, or he'll be in the backfield all afternoon.
When Minnesota has the ball, it will be strength against strength. This could be a pretty even matchup. The Tigers' size and strength could also overpower the Gophers, despite their own size in the middle and speed on the outside. It will be fascinating to watch.
The starting end for the Tigers is Marlon Davidson, another senior with disruptive tendencies. His 6.5 sacks are the most on the team, and he is second behind Brown in havoc plays.
The Buck is Big Kat Bryant, who only has 10.5 tackles to his name but apparently has the most quarterback hurries of any Auburn defender (according to the A.U. website, that is — hurry totals are dubious and inconsistently tracked for college players). He's a talented player, even if he doesn't demand one's attention the way Brown and Davidson do.
The other starting tackle, Tyrone Truesdell, shouldn't be glossed over. Though his numbers aren't as impressive as those of his counterpart, Truesdell is a solid player. He didn't make the tackle on the following play, but you can see Truesdell drive All-American left guard Shane Lemieux (No. 68 for Oregon) into the backfield, which certainly made things harder for the Ducks.
With so many tough guys up front, Auburn's run defense is, naturally, strong, even if it isn't elite. The Auburn line's advanced stats are quite good: 18th in Adjusted Line Yards per Carry, 27th in Opportunity Rate, and 22nd in Stuff Rate. Previous opponents have been able to run efficiently or for big plays, but never both. Running the ball is not impossible, but it is hard to do.
The Tigers seldom play a 4-3, but that might change against Minnesota, depending on how often the Gophers play with unbalanced line (assuming they can; right tackle Daniel Faalele is a game-time decision) and use 12 personnel or the Wildcat. For the most part, they're in nickel, so the linebackers on the field are some two-man combination of K.J. Britt, Zakoby McClain, Owen Pappoe, and Chandler Wooten. The hard-hitting Britt is the biggest difference-maker among them, with 8.0 TFLs to his name. Here is one of them.
The Auburn secondary is an area of strength, although it's not without its weaknesses. The Tigers' corners have had some problems going one-on-one against talented wide receivers. Here, Noah Igbinoghene and Roger McCreary got beaten badly by LSU's Terrace Marshall Jr. and Ja'Marr Chase.
And with all the man coverage Steele calls for, opponents can sometimes hurt Auburn on slants and other quick throws over the middle.
In fairness, Chase just won the Biletnikoff Award, and the SEC attracts many of the best receivers in the country. And the Tigers have plenty of plays on film where they defended slants quite well. But Minnesota has two First-team All-Big Ten receivers in Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson, who frequently eat defensive backs alive on slants. Steele's man-heavy scheme might make for an ideal matchup for the Gophers.
That said, Auburn has a top-10 defense for a reason. Those cornerbacks may post a merely good 57.7 percent completion rate allowed, but they allow just 10.3 yards per completion, the third-smallest amount in FBS. The reason: They know how to tackle.
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| You can tell after watching enough Auburn games that anticipating these swing passes is a point of emphasis. |
Missed tackles are seldom a problem for this team. And not only that — these defenders hit hard.
The Tigers' heavy hitting is a big reason why, as mentioned above, they force so many fumbles. Nine defenders have forced fumbles this season, and three have each forced two.
The Tigers' aggressiveness isn't restricted to their tackling. In man coverage, Auburn cornerbacks play tight, bumpy coverage that might get called pass interference more often in other conferences. The tactic can get them in trouble occasionally, but it helps prevent completions. Corners Igbinoghene, McCreary, and Javaris Davis, plus "Star" (nickelback) Christian Tutt, have combined for 28 passes defensed this season.
Steele also loves to blitz, often on passing downs. Auburn frequently shows it before the snap:
Safeties Jeremiah Dinson and Daniel Thomas, first and second on the team in tackles, respectively, are frequently among the blitzers. But you don't know until the play starts which players are coming — nor from where, nor when they'll enter the backfield. Overlapping rushes, delayed blitzes, and last-second presnap movement are all tools at the Tigers' disposal.
The Gophers have a redshirt sophomore quarterback and three underclassmen starting on the offensive line, plus another redshirt sophomore who enters the game on unbalanced sets. Relatively inexperienced players might have problems identifying and picking up blitzes. The short passing game could be more important to Minnesota's success in this game than it normally is.
Minnesota already was facing a challenge against a mean defense. Offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca's departure for Penn State doesn't help matters. Tanner Morgan will need to get rid of the ball quickly against Steele's arsenal of blitzes, and the receivers will need to put up yards after the catch against defensive backs that seldom allow them. The offensive line needs to double-team Brown, or he'll be in the backfield all afternoon.
When Minnesota has the ball, it will be strength against strength. This could be a pretty even matchup. The Tigers' size and strength could also overpower the Gophers, despite their own size in the middle and speed on the outside. It will be fascinating to watch.
Special Teams
Like the Gophers, the Tigers haven't returned a kick or punt for a touchdown this season. Their return teams are not especially bad: Auburn ranks a not-especially-bad 86th in yards per kick return and an excellent 11th in yards per punt return. It's just that return touchdowns are incredibly rare. It also doesn't help that they hardly ever return kickoffs; Igbinoghene's eight returns lead the team, but they aren't enough for him to qualify for national leaderboards. (Tutt has returned every punt this season.)
When defending returns, Auburn has bigger problems. They're tied for 95th in yards per kick return allowed and dead last in yards per punt return allowed. The latter often negates good punts, too; Arryn Siposs is 34th among qualifiers in average punting. Demetrius Douglas showed last season that when he fields punts cleanly, he can be dangerous; that could come into play against a sketchy coverage team.
Also of note: Nix has twice punted on quick-kicks. This one was in the Iron Bowl:
The tactic is a bit cowardly, but it eliminates the threat of a return because the opponent doesn't expect a punt. It might appear on Wednesday.
Kicker Anders Carlson has been perfect from fewer than 42 yards this season, but from beyond there, it's a little dicier a proposition. He is 8-of-15 on such field goals after going 4-for-4 against Alabama (including on a season-long 52-yard kick). Carlson's stats last year were comparable. He nails the gimmes and the ones a little tougher than that, but the longer kicks — while not beyond his range —give him trouble.
When defending returns, Auburn has bigger problems. They're tied for 95th in yards per kick return allowed and dead last in yards per punt return allowed. The latter often negates good punts, too; Arryn Siposs is 34th among qualifiers in average punting. Demetrius Douglas showed last season that when he fields punts cleanly, he can be dangerous; that could come into play against a sketchy coverage team.
Also of note: Nix has twice punted on quick-kicks. This one was in the Iron Bowl:
The tactic is a bit cowardly, but it eliminates the threat of a return because the opponent doesn't expect a punt. It might appear on Wednesday.
Kicker Anders Carlson has been perfect from fewer than 42 yards this season, but from beyond there, it's a little dicier a proposition. He is 8-of-15 on such field goals after going 4-for-4 against Alabama (including on a season-long 52-yard kick). Carlson's stats last year were comparable. He nails the gimmes and the ones a little tougher than that, but the longer kicks — while not beyond his range —give him trouble.
Conclusion
Beating the Tigers would give the Gophers their first 11-win season since 1904. It doesn't seem likely that they'll reach that goal, but it's a distinct possibility. Auburn will likely shut down the run, but the secondary might have enough holes for Morgan and company to exploit. But the Gophers must hold onto the ball and not risk the game escaping from them on fumbles.
Joe Rossi's defense struggled to handle Wisconsin's misdirection. Malzahn's signature is misdirection. I don't know how well the Gophers will cope with all the Tigers' tricks, even if they can pressure Nix and mostly contain the Auburn skill players. The absence of Kamal Martin will put more pressure on young linebackers Braelin Oliver and Mariano Sori-Marin to stay disciplined.
I don't see either team winning the game in resounding fashion without some turnover luck and some big plays on special teams. That said, I think it's more likely than not that Auburn controls the game and gives Minnesota a loss to close the program's breakthrough season.
Prediction: Auburn 31-21 Minnesota
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